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singhsa3
08-11-2007, 10:02 AM
Folks,
PLEASE do not reply to this message but send me an e-mail at singhsa3@yahoo.com. I will make sure to post a thank you note and results here once I received the document from you.

I am really shocked to see that several of us in our community are still ignorant about the magnamity of the Green card situation. Just this morning, I was talking to one my friend urging him to participate actively in the IV efforts and the answer I got was, "What for? , now that my I-485 is filed, I should get my greencard in a year." His PD is April 2006.

So, we must present a clear and concise picture of the actual situation. Hence, I need help of some smart people on this forum.

Given the status quo, I am looking for projections on how long it will take one to get Green Card decision if one's PD are
EB-2 | Eb-3
July-01 | July-01
Jan-02 | Jan-02
July-02 | July-02
Jan-03 | Jan-03
July-03 | July-03
Jan-04 | Jan-04
July-04 | July-04
Jan-05 | Jan-05
July-05 | July-05
Jan-06 | Jan-06
July-06 | July-06
Jan-07 | Jan-07
July-07 | July-07

PLEASE CLEARLY STATE YOUR ASSUMPTIONS and Send it in an Excel document. Appropriate credit will be given to your work.

Your help is appreciated in advance.
Thanks
Sanjeev

singhsa3
08-11-2007, 01:51 PM
Folks,
Need this urgently as we plan to put these statistics in certain fliers. Call me at 973-448-7734, if you want to discuss this or have any questions.
Thanks
Sanjeev

apb
08-13-2007, 03:28 PM
ASSUMING NO DELAY IN NAME CHECK

EB-3 | Eb-2
July-01 | July-01 6 months/6months
Jan-02 | Jan-02 6 months/6months
July-02 | July-02 1 year/6 months
Jan-03 | Jan-03 1 year/6 months
July-03 | July-03 1 Year /1 Year
Jan-04 | Jan-04 2 Year /1 Year
July-04 | July-04 2.5 Year /2 Year
Jan-05 | Jan-05 4 Year /3 Year
July-05 | July-05 4.5 Year /4 Year
Jan-06 | Jan-06 6 Year /6 Year -- Since there are many with EB2
July-06 | July-06 7 Year /6.5 Year
Jan-07 | Jan-07 8 Plus years
July-07 | July-07 8 Plus years

gc_chahiye
08-13-2007, 03:47 PM
ASSUMING NO DELAY IN NAME CHECK

EB-2 | Eb-3
July-01 | July-01 6 months/6months
Jan-02 | Jan-02 6 months/6months
July-02 | July-02 1 year/6 months
Jan-03 | Jan-03 1 year/6 months
July-03 | July-03 1 Year /1 Year
Jan-04 | Jan-04 2 Year /1 Year
July-04 | July-04 2.5 Year /2 Year
Jan-05 | Jan-05 4 Year /3 Year
July-05 | July-05 4.5 Year /4 Year
Jan-06 | Jan-06 6 Year /6 Year -- Since there are many with EB2
July-06 | July-06 7 Year /6.5 Year
Jan-07 | Jan-07 8 Plus years
July-07 | July-07 8 Plus years

1. have you flipped EB2/EB3 around? If not, why would July 02 EB2 take longer than July 02 EB3?

2. April 05 to December 05 (the first year of PERM) there were very few filings, so atleast in that period the dates should move fast (see data collected by yabadaba in some other thread here).

3. After approving a massive 60K number of visas in the June/July with 25K or so Indians, the PD for India is apparently going to be back where we started from in January!! That flood of approvals did not make a dent in the PD! So these dates do seem rather optimistic, especially if there is no spillover again and USCIS approves only 9K Indians per year (like they did in 2006)

apb
08-13-2007, 03:49 PM
Yes I did flipped EB2/3.
I re-flipped EB2/EB3 now

Also the BPEC should have processed all applications by Oct/07. These are with PDs in 02/03
The processing centers normally take around 6 months even to touch our applications after receipting.

chakalov
08-13-2007, 07:15 PM
What about ROW.?

singhsa3
08-13-2007, 08:53 PM
Fact Sheet: Who's Looking Out for You?

Green Card Visa Numbers Situation
• The GC process involves Labor Certification (2-3 months) + I-140 (0-12 Months) + Wait for priority dates to become current (several years) + security checks (1 month to 2 years) + I-485 processing once priority dates become current (18 months to 3 years).
• Yearly green cards quota for employment based applicants is 140,000. This includes visas for spouses and children. So on an average; it is given to ~ 60,000 families.
• Country visas limit is 7%, with almost equal distribution for EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 plus any unused visas from other countries. Generally speaking, for countries like India, approximately 7000 visas (~3000 families) were being issued every year in each of these categories.
• It is estimated that approximately 500K+ (yes 500K) I-485 applications under skilled worker category were filed between July 2nd and August 17th 2007. Most of these applications were from people of India and China.
• If you were unmarried at the time of filing, you will need to continue on current status (e.g. H-1B) otherwise you cannot bring your spouse.
• Employment Based Immigration reforms do not find enough support on the senate floors (Failure of SKIL, STEM etc Bills). As a matter of fact, it does not even get enough support to make it debatable, let alone final voting on the bills.
• USCIS is a self-funded organization i.e. it is run on fees it receives and is short on resources.

What do these jargons mean?
• Priority dates (PD) will remain retrogressed for several years.
• Those who could not file their I-485 now will now have to waitttttt…..
• Due to resource constraints, security checks may take years.
• Once PD becomes current, it takes on an average 1 year to 3 years to get approval.
• Endless cycle of EAD renewals and Advance paroles.
• If working on EAD and for any reason, if any of your EAD gets rejected, you will need to stop working, In other words, need to leave your job.
• You need to be in the same position with same job responsibilities for an indefinite time period otherwise you Green Card application will be rejected.
• EADs are valid for one year and several employers (and rightly so) view it as a temporary permit and hence reluctant to hire you.
• Once PD becomes current, it takes on an average 1 year to 3 years to get approval.
• So virtually you have three options: a) Struggle for several years b) Leave the USA c) Join us.

keshtwo
08-13-2007, 09:02 PM
We know for a fact that 18k Eb3 (India) people were issued visas this June-July due to spillover + std quota. What is the same number for China and Mexico? Also we need to know how many Eb2s were issued. If anyone can list that, it would be great, and we can extrapolate from that.

singhsa3
08-13-2007, 09:11 PM
Whats the average over last 7 years? Plus where did you get this 18K number from? Also what happened in June July was more an exception than a rule and hence cannot be extrapolated.
We know for a fact that 18k Eb3 (India) people were issued visas this June-July due to spillover + std quota. What is the same number for China and Mexico? Also we need to know how many Eb2s were issued. If anyone can list that, it would be great, and we can extrapolate from that.

singhsa3
08-13-2007, 10:22 PM
Brother,
I will correct my post if you can please point out the source that it is not 500K and not even close to 30% of 500K. My source is postings by Greg Siskind and Matthew Oh.


......i know quite a few persons with Nov-Dec 2004 PD who got their actual GCs (yes, the ACTUAL cards).

so please stop throwing around the 500K+ number, its bogus, and people should know better than to refer to it.

gimme a break, there is enough of this prophetic nonsense around. stop scaring people without cause, just because you are paranoid and cant take the pressure.

according to the "experts" posting here, it would seem that every indian gets to apply for a GC. i have seen data related to the PERM approvals, that number is NOT EVEN CLOSE to 500K+. not even close to 30% of 500K+.

relax, take it easy, and do your work.

peace.

singhsa3
08-13-2007, 10:31 PM
What about cases from BEC, remember PERM came in affect only in Mar'05.
There are around 200K+ cases from BEC
here you go....

http://www.immigration.com/newsletter1/dolstatperm.pdf

i am referring to the part of EB certifications that correspond to India......this is 2 years' worth of data......please tell me where is it that you and i are interpreting it differently ??

i say about 33% of these total cases can be indian. so say, if there are 3 persons per family, then roughly 200K cases for india from 2005-2007 roughly.......

singhsa3
08-13-2007, 10:34 PM
Also for PERM only cases , which is 162K, total number of applicant will be 162*3= 486 , this includes spouse and children
What about cases from BEC, remember PERM came in affect only in Mar'05.
There are around 200K+ cases from BEC

singhsa3
08-13-2007, 10:36 PM
Why are you insisting on India?
but they are not all from India !!
i say 30% is a good percentage to attach, when considering India versus total.

so my number is close to about (30% of 200K)+(30% of 180K), then this number times 3 per family. thus, effectively, about 350-380K cases.....

singhsa3
08-13-2007, 10:39 PM
Per your formula, The number is 432K :D, and thats only for India. Shouldn't I be paranoid now??:Dbut they are not all from India !!
i say 30% is a good percentage to attach, when considering India versus total.

so my number is close to about (30% of 200K)+(30% of 180K), then this number times 3 per family. thus, effectively, about 350-380K cases.....

plassey
08-13-2007, 10:45 PM
He had written BEC cases 200 but probably was thinking 300. It is actually 300. But anyways, the fact of the matter is that there is a huge back log.
The situation was much better couple of years ago as all the backlog was at labor certification stage.
errr...no ?
the number would be close to about 350 to 380......depending on whether you use 30% or 33% as your number.......

still....when has it been better than this......???
the india line has always had a massive backlog like this, has it not? so whats new or worse this time around ?

natrajs
08-13-2007, 11:19 PM
Folks

We have to actively participate in the IV's efforts; I think that's the only hope we have.

Even though the CIR address little bit of Employment based immigration it addresses mostly the illegal immigration which is very sensitive and we got killed by that.

And IV is very much focusing on segregate our issues from it.

I strongly believe that DC Rally can change congress & Senate's view towards US.

The Rally will create awareness to the public that we are not illegal’s, we are in here legally, Pay taxes and follow the rules of the land.

Please participate in the Rally and Hope the Best

andy garcia
08-13-2007, 11:45 PM
Whats the average over last 7 years? Plus where did you get this 18K number from? Also what happened in June July was more an exception than a rule and hence cannot be extrapolated.

Here are the worldwide and India EB visas issued over the last 7 years:

Fiscal ___Worldwide ___ India ___ India
Year _____ Total ______ Total ____ %
2000 ___ 107,024 ___ 15,888 *** 15
2001 ___ 179,195 ___ 41,720 *** 23
2002 ___ 174,968 ___ 41,919 *** 24
2003 ____ 82,137 ___ 20,818 *** 25
2004 ___ 155,330 ___ 39,496 *** 25
2005 ___ 246,878 ___ 47,160 *** 19
2006 ___ 159,081 ___ 17,358 *** 11
Total __ 1,104,613 __ 224,359 __ 20.3
Average __ 157,802 __ 32,051 __ 20.3
(7 years)

The total allocated for these 7 years was:
140000/yr * 7 = 980,000 +
______________130,137 (AC21 Act of 2000) +
_______________50,000 (Real ID Act of 2005)
Total available= 1,160,137
Visas issued _= 1,104,613
Unused visas from 2000 to 2006 = 55,524

shreekhand
08-14-2007, 12:23 AM
Nice work !!

Here are the worldwide and India EB visas issued over the last 7 years:

Fiscal ___Worldwide ___ India ___ India
Year _____ Total ______ Total ____ %
2000 ___ 107,024 ___ 15,888 *** 15
2001 ___ 179,195 ___ 41,720 *** 23
2002 ___ 174,968 ___ 41,919 *** 24
2003 ____ 82,137 ___ 20,818 *** 25
2004 ___ 155,330 ___ 39,496 *** 25
2005 ___ 246,878 ___ 47,160 *** 19
2006 ___ 159,081 ___ 17,358 *** 11
Total __ 1,104,613 __ 224,359 __ 20.3
Average __ 157,802 __ 32,051 __ 20.3
(7 years)

The total allocated for these 7 years was:
140000/yr * 7 = 980,000 +
______________130,137 (AC21 Act of 2000) +
_______________50,000 (Real ID Act of 2005)
Total available= 1,160,137
Visas issued _= 1,104,613
Unused visas from 2000 to 2006 = 55,524

alterego
08-14-2007, 12:41 AM
errr...no ?
the number would be close to about 350 to 380......depending on whether you use 30% or 33% as your number.......

still....when has it been better than this......???
the india line has always had a massive backlog like this, has it not? so whats new or worse this time around ?


While I admire your optimism. I must tell you I feel it is misplaced. A few points to be noted.
The numbers from BECs approvals and the 2 yrs of pent up demand created from retrogression of dates, means that of the filnigs currently being done the Majority will be EB India, for no other reason that that was the country most affected by retrogression.
In years gone by there were over 200K visas from the AC21 recapture legislation until 2005. After that this year we had this mad rush to approve 60K visas in June.............which actually benefited EB India. Now looking into the next 12 months no such saving grace is foreseen.
The gov't has a stated objective now of reducing the time for security checks. Much of the stuck applications from ROW will now get unstuck and use up visa numbers. Remember now all we have is the 140K visas.

Bottom line...........if you want your green card in the next 1-2 yrs you better had hope and do something so that things work out in terms of relief such as recapture legislation. Otherwise be prepared to wait 5yrs or more if your 485 is going in the oven now.

singhsa3
08-14-2007, 08:02 AM
Excellent work, I will change our fact sheet.

Here are the worldwide and India EB visas issued over the last 7 years:

Fiscal ___Worldwide ___ India ___ India
Year _____ Total ______ Total ____ %
2000 ___ 107,024 ___ 15,888 *** 15
2001 ___ 179,195 ___ 41,720 *** 23
2002 ___ 174,968 ___ 41,919 *** 24
2003 ____ 82,137 ___ 20,818 *** 25
2004 ___ 155,330 ___ 39,496 *** 25
2005 ___ 246,878 ___ 47,160 *** 19
2006 ___ 159,081 ___ 17,358 *** 11
Total __ 1,104,613 __ 224,359 __ 20.3
Average __ 157,802 __ 32,051 __ 20.3
(7 years)

The total allocated for these 7 years was:
140000/yr * 7 = 980,000 +
______________130,137 (AC21 Act of 2000) +
_______________50,000 (Real ID Act of 2005)
Total available= 1,160,137
Visas issued _= 1,104,613
Unused visas from 2000 to 2006 = 55,524

mundada
08-14-2007, 09:56 AM
Here are the worldwide and India EB visas issued over the last 7 years:

Fiscal ___Worldwide ___ India ___ India
Year _____ Total ______ Total ____ %
2000 ___ 107,024 ___ 15,888 *** 15
2001 ___ 179,195 ___ 41,720 *** 23
2002 ___ 174,968 ___ 41,919 *** 24
2003 ____ 82,137 ___ 20,818 *** 25
2004 ___ 155,330 ___ 39,496 *** 25
2005 ___ 246,878 ___ 47,160 *** 19
2006 ___ 159,081 ___ 17,358 *** 11
Total __ 1,104,613 __ 224,359 __ 20.3
Average __ 157,802 __ 32,051 __ 20.3
(7 years)

The total allocated for these 7 years was:
140000/yr * 7 = 980,000 +
______________130,137 (AC21 Act of 2000) +
_______________50,000 (Real ID Act of 2005)
Total available= 1,160,137
Visas issued _= 1,104,613
Unused visas from 2000 to 2006 = 55,524
great job!

Since1997
08-14-2007, 09:57 AM
Here are the worldwide and India EB visas issued over the last 7 years:

Fiscal ___Worldwide ___ India ___ India
Year _____ Total ______ Total ____ %
2000 ___ 107,024 ___ 15,888 *** 15
2001 ___ 179,195 ___ 41,720 *** 23
2002 ___ 174,968 ___ 41,919 *** 24
2003 ____ 82,137 ___ 20,818 *** 25
2004 ___ 155,330 ___ 39,496 *** 25
2005 ___ 246,878 ___ 47,160 *** 19
2006 ___ 159,081 ___ 17,358 *** 11
Total __ 1,104,613 __ 224,359 __ 20.3
Average __ 157,802 __ 32,051 __ 20.3
(7 years)

The total allocated for these 7 years was:
140000/yr * 7 = 980,000 +
______________130,137 (AC21 Act of 2000) +
_______________50,000 (Real ID Act of 2005)
Total available= 1,160,137
Visas issued _= 1,104,613
Unused visas from 2000 to 2006 = 55,524


Very good info....where did you got this info from ? Could you pls sgare ? Is it reliable ?

pathiren
08-14-2007, 10:27 AM
Great Job!
Seeing this, It makes more sense to fight for removing wait while I-485 is regtrogressed, then to fight for using the unused visa numbers! I might be wrong, correct me if I am.
HP


Here are the worldwide and India EB visas issued over the last 7 years:

Fiscal ___Worldwide ___ India ___ India
Year _____ Total ______ Total ____ %
2000 ___ 107,024 ___ 15,888 *** 15
2001 ___ 179,195 ___ 41,720 *** 23
2002 ___ 174,968 ___ 41,919 *** 24
2003 ____ 82,137 ___ 20,818 *** 25
2004 ___ 155,330 ___ 39,496 *** 25
2005 ___ 246,878 ___ 47,160 *** 19
2006 ___ 159,081 ___ 17,358 *** 11
Total __ 1,104,613 __ 224,359 __ 20.3
Average __ 157,802 __ 32,051 __ 20.3
(7 years)

The total allocated for these 7 years was:
140000/yr * 7 = 980,000 +
______________130,137 (AC21 Act of 2000) +
_______________50,000 (Real ID Act of 2005)
Total available= 1,160,137
Visas issued _= 1,104,613
Unused visas from 2000 to 2006 = 55,524

njboy
08-14-2007, 10:45 AM
high number of approvals because of schedule A workers (malu nurses). So dont let that fool you into thinking they are approving a lot of cases from India. Also, there was a visa recapture back in early 2000 or 2001. This is what had helped the dates get current for India.

keshtwo
08-14-2007, 04:10 PM
People,

Don't forget that people from 2001 are still waiting to get their GCs. See to confirm. So calculating from 2005 onwards makes no sense, especially when a huge number of people are from before then.

Imm_Exploited
08-15-2007, 02:59 PM
Here are some numbers from Oh Law to look at. These numbers could be used by the experts here to make an estimate till the USCIS will actually come out and make an announcement on the number of I-485 applications received between July 2 and August 17, 2007.

From the Oh Law Web site:

Quote:

08/14/2007: USCIS I-485 Workload Statistics
The following statistics reflect a steady increase in the number of I-485 applications (including family-based and other cases) during the months before the July VB fiasco hit the roof as is shown in the following table:
Month New Receipt Total Pending June 2007 69,098 597,844 May 2007 68,265 594,706 April 2007 59,266 580,507 March 2007 62,020 572,779 February 2007 45,554 574,783 January 2007 52,082 583,682 December 2006 50,411 588,039 November 2006 53,016 578,80507/26/2007: BEC Labor Certification Status as of 07/20/2007
AILA's teleconference with DOL on 07/24/2007 reflects as follows: [Courtesy of AILA]
Total balance: 28,300
RIR=Fewer than 1,000
TR=More than 27,300
Recruitment process has yet to be initiated=2,000
Recruitment process underway=More than 25,300
Unquote.

From the above above numbers, it is hard to believe that there are still 200,000 Labor certifications pending with the BECs with Priority Dates (PDs) as per June 2007 VB.

I rest my case and leave the floor to the IV experts, most of whose PDs are probably older that 2000/2001.

s_r_e_e
08-23-2007, 12:08 AM
it is hard to believe that there are still 200,000 Labor certifications pending with the BECs with Priority Dates (PDs) as per June 2007 VB.

most of whose PDs are probably older that 2000/2001.

My employer had 4 cases pending.. Late 2002 - Late 2003 . none prior 2002.
________
CALIFORNIA MEDICAL MARIJUANA DISPENSARY (http://california.dispensaries.org/)

Hassan11
02-21-2008, 03:36 PM
does anybody have any idea or opinion about the number of pending I-485 applications from ROW ( EB3 only since EB2 being current for w hile)with PD between Nov 02 and Jan 05??

please any input would be appreciated. Thanks

Hassan11
02-22-2008, 11:52 AM
This is just a guess estimate of the percentage of LC for India and China from Circus123's numbers: 30%-39%

from 2002-2005, we have about 192,411 LC total, which means about 117,371 to 134,688 LC for ROW (including Mexico)

this means we have maybe a little more than 134,688 pending I-485 application with PD between last VB cut off date Nov 01 and Mar VB cut off date Jan 05. 99% of those pending 485s are from EB3 ROW since EB2 ROW being current for a while and I assume there is no backlog on those.

This doesn't give a lot of hope of future movement of cutoff date for EB3 ROW till maybe Oct VB

again, this is just an estimate and it can be wrong. if you think otherwise, please provide your feedback or opinion.
Thanks

Honda
07-11-2008, 02:44 PM
Here are the worldwide and India EB visas issued over the last 7 years:

Fiscal ___Worldwide ___ India ___ India
Year _____ Total ______ Total ____ %
2000 ___ 107,024 ___ 15,888 *** 15
2001 ___ 179,195 ___ 41,720 *** 23
2002 ___ 174,968 ___ 41,919 *** 24
2003 ____ 82,137 ___ 20,818 *** 25
2004 ___ 155,330 ___ 39,496 *** 25
2005 ___ 246,878 ___ 47,160 *** 19
2006 ___ 159,081 ___ 17,358 *** 11
Total __ 1,104,613 __ 224,359 __ 20.3
Average __ 157,802 __ 32,051 __ 20.3
(7 years)

The total allocated for these 7 years was:
140000/yr * 7 = 980,000 +
______________130,137 (AC21 Act of 2000) +
_______________50,000 (Real ID Act of 2005)
Total available= 1,160,137
Visas issued _= 1,104,613
Unused visas from 2000 to 2006 = 55,524

Great Job.

Honda
07-11-2008, 02:48 PM
Here are the worldwide and India EB visas issued over the last 7 years:

Fiscal ___Worldwide ___ India ___ India
Year _____ Total ______ Total ____ %
2000 ___ 107,024 ___ 15,888 *** 15
2001 ___ 179,195 ___ 41,720 *** 23
2002 ___ 174,968 ___ 41,919 *** 24
2003 ____ 82,137 ___ 20,818 *** 25
2004 ___ 155,330 ___ 39,496 *** 25
2005 ___ 246,878 ___ 47,160 *** 19
2006 ___ 159,081 ___ 17,358 *** 11
Total __ 1,104,613 __ 224,359 __ 20.3
Average __ 157,802 __ 32,051 __ 20.3
(7 years)


The total allocated for these 7 years was:
140000/yr * 7 = 980,000 +
______________130,137 (AC21 Act of 2000) +
_______________50,000 (Real ID Act of 2005)
Total available= 1,160,137
Visas issued _= 1,104,613
Unused visas from 2000 to 2006 = 55,524


Good Job. if you have chance can you please find out how many visas are pending from the last 7 years. Why becoz Eb2 is moving Fast (jun 1st 2006) and Eb3 becomes unavailable?

India_USA
04-15-2010, 01:22 PM
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/lpr_fr_2009.pdf

Page 3/6 has info on how many gc were granted broken down by category

H1B-GC
04-15-2010, 01:53 PM
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/lpr_fr_2009.pdf

Page 3/6 has info on how many gc were granted broken down by category

EB Based and FB Green card numbers are not matching with that of USCIS published data. Based on the link above there should be 15,000 spillover visas available to EB for FY2010( Shows only 211,000 FB Visas approved in 2009).

pbuckeye
04-15-2010, 02:24 PM
EB Based and FB Green card numbers are not matching with that of USCIS published data. Based on the link above there should be 15,000 spillover visas available to EB for FY2010( Shows only 211,000 FB Visas approved in 2009).

I think there was some spillover (around 10K) from FB - EB at the start of FY 2010.

H1B-GC
04-15-2010, 02:48 PM
I think there was some spillover (around 10K) from FB - EB at the start of FY 2010.

True but 226,000 - 211,000 (Approved under FB for '09) = 15,000 which should be the spillover from FB to EB Per DOS Chart. Even under EB, DOS chart shows 144,000 Approved whereas USCIS shows 141,000 GC's issued.

Something is seriously wrong with the systems maintaining their Inventory.

willigetgc?
04-19-2010, 10:47 AM
The DOL PERM data shows that there are less # of applications filed in 2009, which i think will reduce 140 applications. the demand is less, yet the vb is moving so slowly - what is the cause -
uscis is not processing app timely
dos is not processing uscis info correctly