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JunRN
10-02-2007, 07:07 PM
As per latest USCIS statistics, only about 180,000 applied for AOS during the months of July and August 2007. However, it also shows that as of end August, there were more than 500,000 pending AOS applications.


http://www.uscis.gov/files/article/APPLICATIONS%20FOR%20IMMIGRATION%20BENEFITS_Aug07. pdf

JunRN
10-02-2007, 07:20 PM
There is no information yet for the month of September 2007. We'll see when that comes out. And if the 300,000 estimate is true, then there were more than 100,000 who were not yet receipted as of end Aug.

Hermione
10-02-2007, 09:33 PM
I see 600K total received applications, 116K total received I-485s (that includes family and other categories) - so where is 180K are from... and 550K pending I-485s, again, this is the total, of which EB should be around 13%. But we know that USCIS 'pending' definition for I-485 does not include those stuck in retro or namecheck (and most of the retro applications are FB, not EB). Am I looking at the wrong chart?

Funny enough, total August receipts only grew 2% YOY. That means that EBs are a drop in the bucket.

virald
10-02-2007, 09:44 PM
I understand majority of these are EB cases, but are all EB cases?

Hermione
10-02-2007, 10:00 PM
I understand majority of these are EB cases, but are all EB cases?

Absolutely not! Family category is the largest category of all, and all those spouses (summer is the busiest wedding time) and adopted children don't have quotas. 116K sound like "normal" workload, since there are around 100K approvals in a general month.

Hermione
10-02-2007, 10:06 PM
What is I-765 employment authorization?
Is I-485 applicable to any other category (like family sponsored, lottery, ...)?
Is AOS applicable to all categories?



EAD. That's #1 money maker for CIS. All AOS applicants (FB, too) and assylees and refugees generally get one.
Unless it says otherwise, yes.
Of course.


This is a typical case of tunnel vision by EBs. All who they know are EBs, so people assume everyone in the world is the same category. Nope. EBs are invisible when you look at the big picture

Hermione
10-02-2007, 10:22 PM
Is this saying that 116,177 I-485 (all categories) applications were recieved in Aug (not uptil Aug)?

I think this is exactly what it says. And based on the previous year seasonality curve, it is what is actually expected. Out of them... I dunno, maybe 30-50K are EB applications. So the whole thing about 500K people waiting for green cards in EB is a little... should I say, overblown?.. (also, look at July numbers, the number of receipts was lower than August, but higher than in July of 2006, so maybe 50K additional apps).

JunRN
10-02-2007, 10:38 PM
EAD. That's #1 money maker for CIS. All AOS applicants (FB, too) and assylees and refugees generally get one.
Unless it says otherwise, yes.
Of course.


This is a typical case of tunnel vision by EBs. All who they know are EBs, so people assume everyone in the world is the same category. Nope. EBs are invisible when you look at the big picture

The data talks about I-485:

I-485 is for:

EB
K1
Assylum
Refugee
Cuban

Does this include Family-based petition or are they using different forms?

Hermione
10-02-2007, 10:44 PM
Well, K1 is FB. Also, they mention I-130 which is the "I-140" for FB, so there is no doubt in my mind this includes FB I-485s.

The data talks about I-485:

I-485 is for:

EB
K1
Assylum
Refugee
Cuban

Does this include Family-based petition or are they using different forms?

JunRN
10-02-2007, 10:49 PM
Well, K1 is FB. Also, they mention I-130 which is the "I-140" for FB, so there is no doubt in my mind this includes FB I-485s.


In the I-485 form, where is it says that FB is included except for K1? Like sons and daugthers of Citizens/PR?

I think they are using different forms and mostly are doing Consular Processing, not AOS. So, I-130 but doing CP.

Therefore, only EB plus K1, Refugee, Assylum and Cubans are included in I-485.

Hermione
10-02-2007, 10:49 PM
Waaaa-it. Ombudsamn only talks of I-485s and Naturalizations. This one is EVERYTHING. H1Bs, EADs, Aps, I-140s, I-130s, naturalizations, green card replacemetns, you name it.

The 550K pending I-485 cases is the 'ripe' cases, which is the part of the 2.5M total (again, most of them are retrogressed FB cases).


Pending cases = EB + Family + Asylum + Refugee + Lottery + ... = Backlogged cases + Unripe cases = 1,275,795 (page 11) + 1,316,740 (Figure 1, page 14) = 2,592,535 (as of March 2007)

What is an unripe case?

even if the application or petition were approved today, a benefit could not be conferred for months or years to come. (page 11)
cases that do not have an available visa or an FBI name check, and cases that are in suspense for other reasons deemed beyond USCIS’ control (page 12)

Servicewide Total Pending (End of Apr. 2007): 3,486,838. (page 114/132)
I-485 Adjustment of Status Pending (End of Apr 2007): 580,507

Annual Report to Congress June 2007 (http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/CISOMB_Annual_Report_2007.pdf)

Hermione
10-02-2007, 10:54 PM
Same as for EB - 'immigrant petiton is approved'. I-130 is also an immigrant petition.


In the I-485 form, where is it says that FB is included except for K1? Like sons and daugthers of Citizens/PR?

I think they are using different forms and mostly are doing Consular Processing, not AOS. So, I-130 but doing CP.

Therefore, only EB plus K1, Refugee, Assylum and Cubans are included in I-485.

Hermione
10-02-2007, 10:59 PM
If you apply for I-130, it will not be approved until the dates become current (unlike EBs I-140), or if it is current/no quota, you can file concurrently I-130/I-485. The process is no different than that for EB. And no, one do not have to be in K status to apply for a spouse green card. I know several people who have switched directly from student or visitor to AOS based on a marriage.

In the I-485 form, where is it says that FB is included except for K1? Like sons and daugthers of Citizens/PR?

I think they are using different forms and mostly are doing Consular Processing, not AOS. So, I-130 but doing CP.

Therefore, only EB plus K1, Refugee, Assylum and Cubans are included in I-485.

gc_chahiye
10-02-2007, 11:10 PM
As per latest USCIS statistics, only about 180,000 applied for AOS during the months of July and August 2007. However, it also shows that as of end August, there were more than 500,000 pending AOS applications.


http://www.uscis.gov/files/article/APPLICATIONS%20FOR%20IMMIGRATION%20BENEFITS_Aug07. pdf

something does not add up: they claim there is 2% more applications in Aug 2007 as opposed to August 2006. Even if this contains all types of applications, not just AOS ones, there is no way just a 2% increase would result in 3 month and longer receipting delays.

Dont know how much of this data is accurate...

ultimo
10-02-2007, 11:17 PM
so how long we have to wait for GC ??? it takes long i think

JunRN
10-02-2007, 11:19 PM
Are they using I-485 or different forms?

Hermione
10-02-2007, 11:20 PM
so how long we have to wait for GC ??? it takes long i think

Well, given that the dreaded 500K-1M backlog is looking like 50-70K additional petitions... you may end up waiting 1 year or 2 shorter than you thought you would.

Hermione
10-02-2007, 11:23 PM
Are they using I-485 or different forms?

Of course, they are using I-485, there is no other gren card AOS petition out there!

Percent of green card received though CP was been declining steadily over time, and now it is less than 20%, if I remember correctly, so CP is a minority in almost every cateogry (maybe, except lottery).

JunRN
10-02-2007, 11:26 PM
So you mean most of those with petitions are already here in the US and just few are waiting outside the US?

I-485 is for those in the US only, right?

Hermione
10-02-2007, 11:27 PM
[QUOTE=Hermione;177401]Of course, they are using I-485, there is no other gren card AOS petition out there!
[QUOTE]

OK, I stand corrected - adopted children of citizens or natural-born children of LPRs under the age of 2 may be admitted into LPR status directly at the border, without AOS or CP. I think, this is the only exception.

Hermione
10-02-2007, 11:32 PM
Yes. I-485 is filed within the US. Around 80% of green cards are filed for in the US, anyway. 60% or so of FB are no-quota petitions (immediate family), they are mostly filed from within the US. Out of the rest of the FB petitions, up to a half are filed within the US. Assylees and refugees and EBs are almost always filed within the US. Visa lottery could be either way.

So you mean most of those with petitions are already here in the US and just few are waiting outside the US?

I-485 is for those in the US only, right?

JunRN
10-02-2007, 11:38 PM
So if I follow your data, as of end August, there are just about 200,000 EB AOS applicants pending....so we are not really that heavily retrogressed.....and the rest, about 300,000 are FB AOS applicants....is that correct?

Hermione
10-02-2007, 11:59 PM
So if I follow your data, as of end August, there are just about 200,000 EB AOS applicants pending....so we are not really that heavily retrogressed.....and the rest, about 300,000 are FB AOS applicants....is that correct?

First, the 550K pending applications do not include any petitions that are either retrogressed or pending a namecheck. The real total number of pending AOS applications is around 2.5M - don't get scared yet - out of which in March there were 30-40K reptrogressed EB petitions and maybe 40-50K namecheck petitions (Ombudsman report). Now, in the 550K pending (or 580K in March), there are probably only around 50-70K EBs (FB take longer to adjudicate because of interviews, and refugees are just a different story). On top of it, there were maybe a 100K total additional EB petitions submitted throughout June-August, and after we substruct 60K GCs given away, yeah, there are probably 200K EB petitions pending total. Nope, not that retrogressed. Cheers to franklin - we had that discussion a couple days ago.

immi_seeker
10-03-2007, 12:14 AM
so the real cause of retrogression is two things

1. wastage of visa numbers
2. per country limit.

The 140000 limit of EB visas may be sufficient enough to cover all the EB demand. If you look at H1B for last three years it has been only a total of 85000. Out of that majority of it goes to indian companies like tcs , infy etc who doesnt sponsor GC

alterego
10-03-2007, 12:27 AM
There are a lot of unanswered questions in these stats. They are a mix of data of both FB and EB as well as other types of petitions. Secondly the USCIS is still in the process of sorting them out and sending RDs.
I tend to believe when all is said and done we will see the approx. 300K EB applications that the director said they received as reported in the NY times.

JunRN
10-03-2007, 02:02 AM
Approved LC during the the july to august open window for EB may have not exceeded the 500,000 predictions that's why less than 300,000 applications are received.

Some maybe EB2 NIW or EB3 Schedule A but this may not be too many!

waitin_toolong
10-03-2007, 07:18 AM
There are a lot of unanswered questions in these stats. They are a mix of data of both FB and EB as well as other types of petitions. Secondly the USCIS is still in the process of sorting them out and sending RDs.
I tend to believe when all is said and done we will see the approx. 300K EB applications that the director said they received as reported in the NY times.

he said 300K applications that includes consurrently filed I140, Aps and EADs as well not all are I-485's

The situation is not as dire as one would think

JunRN
10-03-2007, 08:12 AM
Let's hope for the best and seeing the data shown in the USCIS report, I felt things are not really that dire as we thought it would be....

What happened this July and August is just like continuing the 50,000 recaptured visas last year when EB3 is current for a long period with extra 50,000 for schedule A. The situation was the same last August 06. Therefore, USCIS can handle our cases similar to the way it handles last year's applications. No different at all.

Hermione
10-03-2007, 09:35 AM
he said 300K applications that includes consurrently filed I140, Aps and EADs as well not all are I-485's

The situation is not as dire as one would think

That could actually explain the gap of 100K estimate for additional I-485s and 300K estimate from USCIS.

If you look at H1Bs in general, only about 50% of them end up getting a green card, and some are going through other categories, like FB. I don't really think Indian companies that do not sponsor grene cards have a huge influence on this number. I bet most people leave them in a year or two, anyway.

JunRN
10-03-2007, 07:14 PM
As per Matthew OH in his website, there are about 320,000 July VB related I-485 cases filed.

Hermione
10-04-2007, 11:39 AM
As per Matthew OH in his website, there are about 320,000 July VB related I-485 cases filed.

I don't understand what he means by "stand alone" applications. Is that all primary applicants? Is it primary applicants with no derivatives (I don't think USCIS counts them like that)? He is a lawyer, is not he, why is he uses this obscure language? The derivative number is unclear, too - it that just derivatives or primary and derivatives (which must be the case if 'stand alone' is primary with no derivatives)?

Something is definitely fishy and too sensational in those numbers. My analytical mind tells me to disregard this information, because because bearer does not know what they are talking about.

sanprabhu
10-04-2007, 11:50 AM
If 800k is the 485 numbers and based on certain number crunchers in these forums who speculated USCIS seems to be entering about 6000 applications per day per service center.

I am assuming about 3000 is being entered for 485 as they indicated in thier FAQ about priority for EAD (90 day limit) so they need to enter 485 first. And assuming they are taking care of EAD standalone applications also (not based on 485 EB but FB, L based etc).

if 300K is the number of 485 then the applications are all entered now else there is more applications to be entered and it would take another 90 days all.

Based on relative quite of the IV forums I am speculating that most our members have either got the RD or atleast got the case numbers.

So I am going with 300k total (including the dependents) as being the number of applications that are recieved from june, july and august.

noman
10-04-2007, 12:26 PM
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/yearbook/2006/table06d.xls

noman
10-04-2007, 12:28 PM
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/yearbook/2006/table03d.xls

noman
10-04-2007, 12:31 PM
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/yearbook/2006/table07d.xls

Hermione
10-04-2007, 12:58 PM
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/yearbook/2006/table06d.xls

This is good information. So, 65% of green cards are given through AOS. That's 820K green cards a year, or roughly 70K a month. Because USCIS tries to hold ins and outs at roughly the same rate by managing priority dates, we can assume that 70K AOS petitions are receipted on an average month. Out of them, EB1/EB2/EB3 is about 14%. Looking at natural seasonality, we could probably expect ~80K petitions submitted in the months of July and August. Based on the chart, there were probably around 110K AOS apps in July, so we are having a bump of about +70-80K additional EB petitions in July-August timeframe, which we could attribute to EB - which comes in addition to the regular 10K petitions a month, so again, we end up with 100K petitions.

Wendyzhu77
10-04-2007, 01:41 PM
I velieve, literally, "stand alone" is in contrast to "filed with 140", which means those 485 are filed with approved/pending 140. So that 400k can either be primary or dependents, i.e., adding this 400k to dependents 400k makes no sense....
I don't understand what he means by "stand alone" applications. Is that all primary applicants? Is it primary applicants with no derivatives (I don't think USCIS counts them like that)? He is a lawyer, is not he, why is he uses this obscure language? The derivative number is unclear, too - it that just derivatives or primary and derivatives (which must be the case if 'stand alone' is primary with no derivatives)?

Something is definitely fishy and too sensational in those numbers. My analytical mind tells me to disregard this information, because because bearer does not know what they are talking about.

GOTGC
10-04-2007, 02:41 PM
I think 800K is believable.. Apart from 65 K H1b s L1 visa holders can also apply for GCs...Not only that ..I think there is an additional 20K H1bs for US master degree holders .

GOTGC
10-04-2007, 02:47 PM
I velieve, literally, "stand alone" is in contrast to "filed with 140", which means those PRIMARY APPLICANT485 are filed with approved/pending 140. So that 400k can either be primary or dependents, i.e., adding this 400k to dependents 400k makes no sense....NOW MAKES SENSE

Hermione
10-04-2007, 02:51 PM
There were between 30K and 80K LCs issued annually in the last 5-7 years. Most years, the numbers were less than 50K. Some are never going to be acted upon, some people have more than one LC, some were already in the sytem (earlier LCs and EB2 ROW). Substract them and you end up with like 150K LCs that would be available for filing. Multiply by 2 for dependents, and voila, we are getting the same number with two methodologies.

800K is a totally wacky number.

I think 800K is believable.. Apart from 65 K H1b s L1 visa holders can also apply for GCs...Not only that ..I think there is an additional 20K H1bs for US master degree holders .

dpp
10-04-2007, 02:53 PM
There were between 30K and 80K LCs issued annually in the last 5-7 years. Most years, the numbers were less than 50K. Some are never going to be acted upon, some people have more than one LC, some were already in the sytem (earlier LCs and EB2 ROW). Substract them and you end up with like 150K LCs that would be available for filing. Multiply by 2 for dependents, and voila, we are getting the same number with two methodologies.

800K is a totally wacky number.

Yah, i agree with you. 300K number is believable.

WaitingForMyGC
10-04-2007, 02:58 PM
So, what is the conclusion? :confused:

JunRN
10-04-2007, 03:16 PM
In whatever analysis I do, I also come up with the 300,000 figure for AOS (i485) applications during the months of July and August.

I agree, the 800k is a wacky figure and as I said in my post, I came up with 800k but that is adding all applications (i485, 131, 765, etc).

GOTGC
10-04-2007, 03:16 PM
There were between 30K and 80K LCs issued annually in the last 5-7 years. Most years, the numbers were less than 50K. Some are never going to be acted upon, some people have more than one LC, some were already in the sytem (earlier LCs and EB2 ROW). Substract them and you end up with like 150K LCs that would be available for filing. Multiply by 2 for dependents, and voila, we are getting the same number with two methodologies.

800K is a totally wacky number.


What about 485s which dont need labor certifications? nurses, eb1s, niws etc etc

willwin
10-04-2007, 03:28 PM
Friends,

Sorry for having barged into this thread.

My PD is March 2005/EB3 India.

My Form 230 (consular Processing) is approved and forwarded to Chennai on August 15th 2007.

With PD having retrogressed back to Apr 2001 for EB3, India and USCIS news that there are 800,000 AOS (485) applications in July and August 2007 alone, I guess, the chance for my PD becoming current is not anywhere in the near future and may take minimum 3 years or so from now. And, with CP, I stand to lose all the interim benefits (EAD, AP, AC21 etc).

I was wondering if I could file another LC in EB2 (through the same employer, ofcourse) and use the same PD (Mar 2005) and file for AOS whenever my PD becomes current in EB2. And, parallely maintain my current CP case (EB3) alive. Is this possible? Are there any pitfalls or risk involved in this? And once I get GC through one of the two, can I cancel the other one?

Experts, please advise. Thanks in advance.

gc_chahiye
10-04-2007, 03:54 PM
There were between 30K and 80K LCs issued annually in the last 5-7 years. Most years, the numbers were less than 50K. Some are never going to be acted upon, some people have more than one LC, some were already in the sytem (earlier LCs and EB2 ROW). Substract them and you end up with like 150K LCs that would be available for filing. Multiply by 2 for dependents, and voila, we are getting the same number with two methodologies.

800K is a totally wacky number.

can you post a link that says most years the number of LCs issued were less than 50K? pre-PERM data if possible. For PERM your estimate is in the right ballpark:

Per DOL released stats between March 2005 and March 2006 they approved 40K LCs.
http://www.murthy.com/news/n_relper.html

Over a 2 year period (once PERM really ramped up and lawyers got familiar with the filing procedures) between March 2005 to March 2007 180K cases were filed and 120K approved.
http://shusterman.com/pdf/permstats407.pdf

So 40K in the first year (when we know there were very few PERM filings: see data collected by yadabada); then 80K the next. Assuming 20K per quarter, thats 20K more approvals in time for the July VB. So 140K PERM LCs without counting a single one from BEC. How many non-PERM ones? any data/link?

abracadabra102
10-04-2007, 04:23 PM
There were between 30K and 80K LCs issued annually in the last 5-7 years. Most years, the numbers were less than 50K. Some are never going to be acted upon, some people have more than one LC, some were already in the sytem (earlier LCs and EB2 ROW). Substract them and you end up with like 150K LCs that would be available for filing. Multiply by 2 for dependents, and voila, we are getting the same number with two methodologies.

800K is a totally wacky number.

I am breathing easy after reading this thread. People on that 800K thread are going ballistic :D

Hermione
10-04-2007, 04:34 PM
I will have to look them up. Someone has posted LC approvals by year in Greg Siskind blog discussions a while ago (I think in August), and those included 2000-2006, but it will take time to find. Numbers were something like 30-40K in 2000-2003, then 20K in 2004, 50K in 2005, 70K in 2006.

Hermione
10-04-2007, 04:44 PM
What about 485s which dont need labor certifications? nurses, eb1s, niws etc etc

EB1s were current all along, so there was no backlog, NIW EB2 were current for ROW, so backlog is much smaller (I could not break them out from the total EB2 numbers, but they are probably a minority). Nurses are 2/3 CPs and only 1/3 AOS, so they are only 7% of EB3.

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/yearbook/2006/table07d.xls

gc_chahiye
10-04-2007, 05:34 PM
I will have to look them up. Someone has posted LC approvals by year in Greg Siskind blog discussions a while ago (I think in August), and those included 2000-2006, but it will take time to find. Numbers were something like 30-40K in 2000-2003, then 20K in 2004, 50K in 2005, 70K in 2006.

those 2000-2005 numbers look real low because BEC alone (formed after PERM came around) had to process 300K LCs:
http://www.doleta.gov/whatsnew/new_releases/2007-10-01.cfm

sapota
10-04-2007, 07:17 PM
Going with just labor certifications. BECs had ~ 300k applications of which only ~180k were actually certified. (Source : there are a group of people in http://boards.immigration.com/showthread.php?t=161571&page=168 website that actually run software scripts on the DOL case status webpage to extract this info !!!.)

+ DOL just released a report that mentions that in the fiscal year Oct2005 to Sep 2006, they certified ~ 90k applications + assume ~90k from Sep 2006 to July 2007

Now. quite a few people who had a case pending at BEC also had another PERM application. (people like me). Plus other cases where people have 2 LCs (just look at signatures of people posting in this website - a lot of them have 2 LCs.)

While the above statistics still cannot rule out that 800k EB I-485 applications were filed just in the months of July/Aug. My opinion is also that it is not the case. (Maybe its juts wishful thinking - but I hope USCIS issues a formal statement about the numbers)

wolfpok
10-04-2007, 08:10 PM
hiya folks...

http://www.cggc.duke.edu/documents/IntellectualProperty_theImmigrationBacklog_andaRev erseBrainDrain_003.pdf

page 4 of Kauffman report indicates about a million applicants as of September 2006. Assuming that this is not off by an order of magnitude and say 100k have exited the queue since, we still have 900k applicants for EB based green cards?

So whats the real number? Kauffman seems a quotable source for media. Our back of the envelope calculations are not.

Comments?

pok

JunRN
10-04-2007, 08:22 PM
Let us not lose context of what we're discussing here. The 300k estimate is for July and August I-485 applications only. If you add pending applications before July, that would reach more than 500k.

The Kauffman report was for 2006 and it's more than a year past with few additional applications since then. So the 1 Mn at the time would have been reduced already significantly.

In the latest official USCIS statistics, there were about 500,000 pending I-485 applications as of end-August.

wolfpok
10-05-2007, 01:50 AM
sorry to butt in on the discussion, but i am looking for clarity on the issue as many of you are...

the report talks about 1.1 million being the total number in queue at various stages in the process (labor, 140 and 485). Even if 120k visas were allocated since October 2006 and and there have been no new entrants to the queue (unlikely) there are close to a million left in the queue. I am guessing most people are out of the labor stage and are into the parallel 140/485 stage. that lends credibility to 900k being in line for visa allocations.

for this to be incorrect, greater than 120k visas should have been issued last year AND/OR a significant number of labor certificates went unused. Knowing these two numbers would help.

JunRN
10-12-2007, 05:33 PM
Let us not lose context of what we're discussing here. The 300k estimate is for July and August I-485 applications only. If you add pending applications before July, that would reach more than 500k.

The Kauffman report was for 2006 and it's more than a year past with few additional applications since then. So the 1 Mn at the time would have been reduced already significantly.

In the latest official USCIS statistics, there were about 500,000 pending I-485 applications as of end-August.


Latest Ombudsman Conference Call confirmed the 300k estimate here.

JunRN
10-18-2007, 06:45 PM
http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedocuments/CBOQandASept2007.pdf

Here's the closure to this issue.

sapota
10-18-2007, 06:56 PM
http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedocuments/CBOQandASept2007.pdf

Here's the closure to this issue.

I believe that the following is the right link :

http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedocuments/AILAQandASept2007.pdf

JunRN
10-18-2007, 06:58 PM
http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedocuments/AILAQandASept2007.pdf

Here's the correct link.