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humdesi
10-05-2007, 04:35 PM
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_3827.html

Dandruff
10-05-2007, 04:43 PM
I see absolutely no change in EB from oct.

help_please
10-05-2007, 04:44 PM
How depressing.

GTGC
10-05-2007, 04:49 PM
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_3827.html

No change since October bulletin!

Now is the time for all of us to start taking action -I hope more people join their local IV chapters and fight this - retrogression is the sad reality of life even if some people choose to ignore it!

chanduv23
10-05-2007, 04:51 PM
Please join State Chapters

njboy
10-05-2007, 04:53 PM
state dept is probably sulking because they didnt get their way on the august visa bulletin..

sandiboy
10-05-2007, 04:54 PM
D. EMPLOYMENT VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

There has been no forward movement of the Employment cut-off dates for November. The reason for this is that it is still too early to see what impact the movement of the cut-off dates toward the end of FY-2007 may have on demand. Depending on the rate of demand being received from Citizenship and Immigration Services offices for adjustment of status cases, some forward movement of dates may be possible for December.

mhathi
10-05-2007, 04:54 PM
There was something about there may be forward movement in december given the rate of demand...

But whatever it is, I am sure it will be minuscule unless we get our acts together soon...

BharatPremi
10-05-2007, 04:55 PM
Don't retrogress yourself and your efforts from our fighting efforts.

HV000
10-05-2007, 04:59 PM
We should NOT be surprised that there is no movement in EB2/EB3 (INDIA) Categories given the number of applications filed recently. We may not see any reasonable forward movement for a long time unless congress passes the visa recapture bill.

willwin
10-05-2007, 05:01 PM
We should NOT be surprised that there is no movement in EB2/EB3 Categories given the number of applications filed recently. We may not see any reasonable forward movement for a long time unless congress passes the visa recapture bill.

I don't think the July/August filings will have impact on the retrogression right away. The cut-off dates would retrogress based on number of applications ready for approval/approved pending VISA number. The applications (485) filed in July/August are not processed yet and hence will not impact retrogression today.

gc_chahiye
10-05-2007, 05:03 PM
I don't think the July/August filings will have impact on the retrogression right away. The cut-off dates would retrogress based on number of applications ready for approval/approved pending VISA number. The applications (485) filed in July/August are not processed yet and hence will not impact retrogression today.

right. in the AILA call also they cautioned that retrogression will become worse (dates moving back!) once USCIS starts processing all those July/August filers...

willwin
10-05-2007, 05:14 PM
right. in the AILA call also they cautioned that retrogression will become worse (dates moving back!) once USCIS starts processing all those July/August filers...

Going by that, I guess, dates may move forward very slowly until these new applications are dust-shed and taken for process. And, this may take atleast 6-9 months or more in my opinion (going by the processing times of various USCIS centers).

They have started FY 2008 with some caution after July fiasco and may ease it up a bit in the next couple of months. I am confident most 2002 cases and some 2003 cases would see approval in the next 3-4 months.

mrajatish
10-05-2007, 05:17 PM
I do not understand how dates for India will get worse by processing July/August apps - mostly applicants with Pri dates after June 2003 (EB3) or Apr 2004 (EB2) applied in July/August.

I would say dates would get worse once they process June folks.

Ramba
10-05-2007, 05:17 PM
right. in the AILA call also they cautioned that retrogression will become worse (dates moving back!) once USCIS starts processing all those July/August filers...

Once USCIS completes data entry of all 800K 485s (may be with in next month) they will have clear picture. They may give a report to DOS, how many waiting in each catagory (EB1,2,3) with PD with countrywise break out. Then DOS will easily setup the cutoff dates. This may happen in Jan or Feb.

I feel that EB3 India may stay like this (in 2001). EB2 India may go back to 2003 or 2002 , based on how many guys in EB3 with PD 2002, 2003 converts to EB2. All other countries may see slight forward movement.

gc_chahiye
10-05-2007, 05:18 PM
Going by that, I guess, dates may move forward very slowly until these new applications are dust-shed and taken for process. And, this may take atleast 6-9 months or more in my opinion (going by the processing times of various USCIS centers).

They have started FY 2008 with some caution after July fiasco and may ease it up a bit in the next couple of months. I am confident most 2002 cases and some 2003 cases would see approval in the next 3-4 months.

2003 EB3 India? That would be interesting (because dates need to jump forward two years for that to happen)

nlssubbu
10-05-2007, 05:24 PM
D. EMPLOYMENT VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

There has been no forward movement of the Employment cut-off dates for November. The reason for this is that it is still too early to see what impact the movement of the cut-off dates toward the end of FY-2007 may have on demand. Depending on the rate of demand being received from Citizenship and Immigration Services offices for adjustment of status cases, some forward movement of dates may be possible for December.

It is very clear that USCIS is yet to complete the receipt of all I-485 applications and are not in a position to give any statistics to DOL. I think then they will be busy in issuing AP / EAD based on the receipt. Considering the current work load, I think it will take at least couple of months for the USCIS to give any reasonable estimate to DOL regarding the actual demand. Till that time, I think DOL will be forced to publish the same status every month. :(

I wish USCIS can use the people worked in Backlog Elimination centers to issue EAD / AP and clear I-485 receipts and provide some meaningful figures to DOL. [I hope they do not create another July bulletin fiasco :D]

Ramba
10-05-2007, 05:29 PM
I predict that the EB3 and EB2 cutoff dates for India will reach close to each other with in next one year. At the worst, the differnce between EB2 qnd EB3 cutoff dates may be maximum of one year.

loudobbs
10-05-2007, 05:30 PM
why do you say so??


I predict that the EB3 and EB2 cutoff dates for India will reach close to each other with in next one year. At the worst, the differnce between EB2 qnd EB3 cutoff dates may be maximum of one year.

indianindian2006
10-05-2007, 05:31 PM
It is very clear that USCIS is yet to complete the receipt of all I-485 applications and are not in a position to give any statistics to DOL. I think then they will be busy in issuing AP / EAD based on the receipt. Considering the current work load, I think it will take at least couple of months for the USCIS to give any reasonable estimate to DOL regarding the actual demand. Till that time, I think DOL will be forced to publish the same status every month. :(

I wish USCIS can use the people worked in Backlog Elimination centers to issue EAD / AP and clear I-485 receipts and provide some meaningful figures to DOL. [I hope they do not create another July bulletin fiasco :D]

One small correction,it is DOS instead of DOL.

nat23
10-05-2007, 05:34 PM
THE DARKEST HOUR OF THE NIGHT IS BEFORE DAWN.....but we will have to fight till the Dawn....

willwin
10-05-2007, 05:35 PM
I predict that the EB3 and EB2 cutoff dates for India will reach close to each other with in next one year. At the worst, the differnce between EB2 qnd EB3 cutoff dates may be maximum of one year.

For that one of these two should happen. Eb3 should move forward and Eb2 should retrogress.

Or EB2 stays and EB3 alone moves forward.

Or EB3 stays and EB2 has to retrogress so much (to 2001)!

I guess chance for 1st and 2nd option are high. And, this would answer Ramba's question how EB3 for India would get approval for PD 2003. There are very few 2001 PDs left (per me). Relatively more 2002 and most of 2001 and 2002 are pending due to name check else they would have got their GC during July and USCIS would not have returned VISA numbers back to DOS nor some numbers would have finally got wasted (FY2007).

So next PD would be 2003 (and there are very few 2003 filings that were filed before June 2007).

row-3
10-05-2007, 05:36 PM
I am ROW-3, Applied for I-485 and EAD cards for my self and my family members. RD 06/19/07, ND 07/19/07. Received EAD cards, finished finger prints and waiting for name check.

I have another family petition (theu my Dad) and my periorty date became current this month. I do not know what to do. To go ahead and apply for GC using may father's petition or to waite untile I hear from INS regarding the work petition.

The cost will be about 4,000 $ and I am afraid that I will be stuck in the name check againe. I was told that I can only have one pending GC petition at all times. The advantage of the family based petition is to be able to work for any employer, no restrictions at all.

Any ideas, please advise.

Ramba
10-05-2007, 05:48 PM
why do you say so??

Till early part of 2004 or latter part of 2003, most of the Indians applied EB3 very few applied EB2. After 2004, it was reverse. I doubt any one appled EB3 in 2005 0r 2006.

If EB3 stays continously in 2001 and EB2 in 2004 (there is 3 year difference in cutoff date between EB2 and EB3 now), the guys with EB3 PD 2002 and 2003 will convert to EB2 by applying new 140 to transfer PD. This flow will balance the cut-off dates. Eventually it will reach a common ground or a break-even point.

willwin
10-05-2007, 05:51 PM
Till early part of 2004 or latter part of 2003, most of the Indians applied EB3 very few applied EB2. After 2004, it was reverse. I doubt any one appled EB3 in 2005 0r 2006.

If EB3 stays continously in 2001 and EB2 in 2004 (there is 3 year difference in cutoff date between EB2 and EB3 now), the guys with EB3 PD 2002 and 2003 will convert to EB2 by applying new 140 to transfer PD. This flow will balance the cut-off dates. Eventually it will reach a common ground or a break-even point.

So, when a 485 is pending, can one file for a new LC (under EB2), I140 and have two GC in progress simutaneously?

Gravitation
10-05-2007, 05:53 PM
I am ROW-3, Applied for I-485 and EAD cards for my self and my family members. RD 06/19/07, ND 07/19/07. Received EAD cards, finished finger prints and waiting for name check.

I have another family petition (theu my Dad) and my periorty date became current this month. I do not know what to do. To go ahead and apply for GC using may father's petition or to waite untile I hear from INS regarding the work petition.

The cost will be about 4,000 $ and I am afraid that I will be stuck in the name check againe. I was told that I can only have one pending GC petition at all times. The advantage of the family based petition is to be able to work for any employer, no restrictions at all.

Any ideas, please advise.
Can you replace the underlying I-140 with I-130? I know it's possible to replace an I-140 with another.

gc_chahiye
10-05-2007, 05:56 PM
One small correction,it is DOS instead of DOL.

DOS or DOL, the logic they apply for setting the dates in the VB is LOL.

Wendyzhu77
10-05-2007, 05:57 PM
but isn't it the best outcome? Now they can precisely set the cut-off date, instead of guessing. that should maximize the visa usage in the following years.
Once USCIS completes data entry of all 800K 485s (may be with in next month) they will have clear picture. They may give a report to DOS, how many waiting in each catagory (EB1,2,3) with PD with countrywise break out. Then DOS will easily setup the cutoff dates. This may happen in Jan or Feb.

I feel that EB3 India may stay like this (in 2001). EB2 India may go back to 2003 or 2002 , based on how many guys in EB3 with PD 2002, 2003 converts to EB2. All other countries may see slight forward movement.

gc_chahiye
10-05-2007, 05:59 PM
For that one of these two should happen. Eb3 should move forward and Eb2 should retrogress.

Or EB2 stays and EB3 alone moves forward.

Or EB3 stays and EB2 has to retrogress so much (to 2001)!

I guess chance for 1st and 2nd option are high. And, this would answer Ramba's question how EB3 for India would get approval for PD 2003. There are very few 2001 PDs left (per me). Relatively more 2002 and most of 2001 and 2002 are pending due to name check else they would have got their GC during July and USCIS would not have returned VISA numbers back to DOS nor some numbers would have finally got wasted (FY2007).

So next PD would be 2003 (and there are very few 2003 filings that were filed before June 2007).

why would EB2 retrogress to before 2003? It was at 2003 for a long time (8 months?). The only people still with PD of EB2 2002 are the ones just getting out of BEC, there cant be too many of them...

JunRN
10-05-2007, 06:06 PM
Big movement usually comes in June (last quarter of the fiscal year) because DOS is not good in statistics (they are hiring US citizens...just kidding, no offense meant) and only that time it realizes that there are more visas to give. And then suddenly some big VB movements (i think DOS should hire us instead as statistician....i can make accurate VB...lol).

But I believe for FY2008, big movement will come on April (DOS doesn't like a repeat of the July VB fiasco).

row-3
10-05-2007, 06:08 PM
I am ROW-3, RD 06/18/07, ND 07/19/07. Received EAD cards, finger prints done for me and my family members.

This month my priority date for a family based petition became current and I do not know if it is wise to apply for GC using the family petition or not.

I understand taht I can onluy have one pending case at all times, meaning that I will withdrew the employment based petition.

If and only if, I decide to apply for GC using the family based petition, is the name check will be a problem and may take for ever?


Feed back please.

Ramba
10-05-2007, 06:15 PM
why would EB2 retrogress to before 2003? It was at 2003 for a long time (8 months?). The only people still with PD of EB2 2002 are the ones just getting out of BEC, there cant be too many of them...

There may be some EB2 Indians with PD in 2002 and 2003 (with traditional non-RIR LC) got out of BEC recently. If 1,500 Indian non-RIR LCs (with EB2 PD 2003)certified recently from BEC, that is sufficent to move the date back to 2003 for India again. Having said that, it is all prediction. No one knows, except USCIS. My prediction is just based on the magnitude of 485s (800K) filed recently, as is has all kind of composition in huge manitude, apart from so many 485s already pending due to name check.

abracadabra102
10-05-2007, 06:19 PM
Till early part of 2004 or latter part of 2003, most of the Indians applied EB3 very few applied EB2. After 2004, it was reverse. I doubt any one appled EB3 in 2005 0r 2006.

If EB3 stays continously in 2001 and EB2 in 2004 (there is 3 year difference in cutoff date between EB2 and EB3 now), the guys with EB3 PD 2002 and 2003 will convert to EB2 by applying new 140 to transfer PD. This flow will balance the cut-off dates. Eventually it will reach a common ground or a break-even point.

There is a small problem with EB3->EB2 PD porting I guess. Now that premium processing for I-140 is suspended indefinitely, I-140 approvals may take a while for this porting to happen.

yabadaba
10-05-2007, 07:17 PM
Big movement usually comes in June (last quarter of the fiscal year) because DOS is not good in statistics (they are hiring US citizens...just kidding, no offense meant) and only that time it realizes that there are more visas to give. And then suddenly some big VB movements (i think DOS should hire us instead as statistician....i can make accurate VB...lol).

But I believe for FY2008, big movement will come on April (DOS doesn't like a repeat of the July VB fiasco).
i agree with junRN....i think this time around the movement will be accurate because all the 485 cases have been filed (excluding BEC ppl) no labor substitution will occur, hence they will know how many visas are in hand and how many can be allotted. Although I think the movement will start from Dec as they suggested...but it will be conservative..and then get agrressive (if reqd) by april.

sparklinks
10-05-2007, 07:43 PM
For that one of these two should happen. Eb3 should move forward and Eb2 should retrogress.

Or EB2 stays and EB3 alone moves forward.

Or EB3 stays and EB2 has to retrogress so much (to 2001)!

I guess chance for 1st and 2nd option are high. And, this would answer Ramba's question how EB3 for India would get approval for PD 2003. There are very few 2001 PDs left (per me). Relatively more 2002 and most of 2001 and 2002 are pending due to name check else they would have got their GC during July and USCIS would not have returned VISA numbers back to DOS nor some numbers would have finally got wasted (FY2007).

So next PD would be 2003 (and there are very few 2003 filings that were filed before June 2007).


Categories |2006 | 2005 | 2004
----------------------------------
EB-1 | 36,960 | 64,731 |31,291
EB-2 | 21,911 | 42,597 |32,534
EB-3 | 89,922 | 129,070* |85,969

gc_chahiye
10-05-2007, 10:17 PM
There may be some EB2 Indians with PD in 2002 and 2003 (with traditional non-RIR LC) got out of BEC recently. If 1,500 Indian non-RIR LCs (with EB2 PD 2003)certified recently from BEC, that is sufficent to move the date back to 2003 for India again. Having said that, it is all prediction. No one knows, except USCIS. My prediction is just based on the magnitude of 485s (800K) filed recently, as is has all kind of composition in huge manitude, apart from so many 485s already pending due to name check.

thats only possible if 1500 EB2 India with PD <2003 got out of BEC in the last 2 months. Somehow that seems pretty hard for me to believe, but you never know.

Anyway looking forward to some detailed stats from USCIS, hope they publish something (they can do a month-by-month country-by-country analysis with what data tehy have now, and should be able to tell each and every application their future potential date of approval (subject to namecheck blackhole exception))

gc_chahiye
10-05-2007, 10:19 PM
Categories |2006 | 2005 | 2004
----------------------------------
EB-1 | 36,960 | 64,731 |31,291
EB-2 | 21,911 | 42,597 |32,534
EB-3 | 89,922 | 129,070* |85,969

can you please tell me the source of these stats? Per the DOL stats, from March 2005 to March 2007 only 130K total cases were approved:
http://www.shusterman.com/pdf/permstats407.pdf
Your stats are almost twice that number!

JunRN
10-05-2007, 10:30 PM
Just a guess...the EB3 figure above for 2005 includes the 50,000 Schedule A Visa recaptured at that period...no LC needed for Sked A.

andy garcia
10-05-2007, 10:47 PM
can you please tell me the source of these stats? Per the DOL stats, from March 2005 to March 2007 only 130K total cases were approved:
http://www.shusterman.com/pdf/permstats407.pdf
Your stats are almost twice that number!

Those are not Labor approvals, those are Green Card approvals.

JunRN
10-05-2007, 10:53 PM
He/she might have thought why would there be more GC approvals than LC approvals...might have forgotten that there were 50,000 Schedule A visas at that time...Sked A is labor-exempt.

lost_in_migration
10-05-2007, 11:00 PM
USCIS Application and Receipting Update - As of October 5, 2007

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=ace7ec20cfbd4110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=54519c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD

Not much progress over last week for NSC but TSC moved by 8 days.

gc_chahiye
10-05-2007, 11:05 PM
Those are not Labor approvals, those are Green Card approvals.

ah now it makes sense. Also JunRNs comment about Sch A clarifies everything. thanks to both of you!

willwin
10-05-2007, 11:09 PM
why would EB2 retrogress to before 2003? It was at 2003 for a long time (8 months?). The only people still with PD of EB2 2002 are the ones just getting out of BEC, there cant be too many of them...

Yes, I agree. For the same reason, there may not be much EB3 2001 and 2002 cases left. Hence Eb3 would move to 2003 soon.

BTW, my PD is not 2003 :-)

immi2006
10-05-2007, 11:33 PM
My appln with March 2001 cleared BEC in June, so are tons of such applications in my company that cleared BEC with EB2 pD (atleast 600-800 - our company ). Many were stuck from 2001, as my company did not apply for GC bet 2001 Aug - 2004 Oct.

can you please tell me the source of these stats? Per the DOL stats, from March 2005 to March 2007 only 130K total cases were approved:
http://www.shusterman.com/pdf/permstats407.pdf
Your stats are almost twice that number!

vijay1974
10-05-2007, 11:43 PM
THE DARKEST HOUR OF THE NIGHT IS BEFORE DAWN.....but we will have to fight till the Dawn....

Don't stress out too much!!! Sleep calmly till dawn and believe me next morning will be more rewarding.

sparklinks
10-05-2007, 11:51 PM
can you please tell me the source of these stats? Per the DOL stats, from March 2005 to March 2007 only 130K total cases were approved:
http://www.shusterman.com/pdf/permstats407.pdf
Your stats are almost twice that number!

This is from Oh law, and these are number of applications (applied)

fastreplys
10-06-2007, 02:10 AM
what does visa bulletin 0f nov 07 mean for the rest of the world?i mean not for india and china.
i am eb2 .current mean what?

mariner5555
10-06-2007, 09:23 AM
Don't stress out too much!!! Sleep calmly till dawn and believe me next morning will be more rewarding.
There is one thing which all of us can do and I belive it will be more effective than a rally(And certainly will cost less).
all we need to do is spread the problems we are facing whenever we buy high value goods like cars or homes. tell the dealer / broker / edu instituitions ..I would have closed the deal if I had a green card ..so the next time congress takes up this bill ..there would be more support for increased legal visas ...unfortunately many of us are selfish ,...we just run and buy houses as soon as we get EADs

sheela
10-06-2007, 09:40 AM
what does visa bulletin 0f nov 07 mean for the rest of the world?i mean not for india and china.
i am eb2 .current mean what?

Current mean: You should get documents including your medicals, photos, employment verification letterm etc., ready and file AOS at the earliest oppurtunity in nov. good luck

Zil
10-06-2007, 10:24 AM
Current mean: You should get documents including your medicals, photos, employment verification letterm etc., ready and file AOS at the earliest oppurtunity in nov. good luck

EB2 ROW is current since oct 1, so if you have an approved i-140 you can file ASAP.

coolvigo
10-06-2007, 10:42 AM
I changed job early this yr and my new employer is working on labor for me right now. But from my previous employer I have PD of Aug 2005. If I get my labor cleared in a month, i should be allowed to apply for 140 and 485 since other fellows from 2007 pd were also able to apply recently.

Why should i suffer because of USCIS foolishness in Aug.......after having PD of 2005.............all similar cases lets raise our voice.

Zil
10-06-2007, 11:03 AM
http://www.samessenger.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1773

BharatPremi
10-08-2007, 10:56 AM
[/QUOTE=willwin;179338]Going by that, I guess, dates may move forward very slowly until these new applications are dust-shed and taken for process. And, this may take atleast 6-9 months or more in my opinion (going by the processing times of various USCIS centers).

They have started FY 2008 with some caution after July fiasco and may ease it up a bit in the next couple of months. I am confident most 2002 cases and some 2003 cases would see approval in the next 3-4 months.[/QUOTE]

100% agree with confidence. My prediction based on statistical analysis (That is the only thing I have regulary done since 1999 and still doing .. no end to this tunnel...:eek:) is as under. Yopu would see +- 2 months here and there in every bulletin.

DEC 07 Bulletin:
---------------

EB3 India - DEC 2002
EB2 INDIA - APR 2004


January 08 Bulletin:
------------------

EB3 India - APR 2003
EB2 INDIA - APR 2004


FEB 08 Bulletin:
------------------

EB3 India - JULY 2003
EB2 INDIA - APR 2004

March 08 Bulletin:
-----------------

EB3 India - AUG 2003
EB2 INDIA - DEC 2004

April 08 Bulletin:
-----------------

EB3 India - DEC 2003/ MARCH 2004
EB2 INDIA - JUN 2005

EkAurAaya
10-08-2007, 11:29 AM
100% agree with confidence. My prediction based on statistical analysis (That is the only thing I have regulary done since 1999 and still doing .. no end to this tunnel...:eek:) is as under. Yopu would see +- 2 months here and there in every bulletin.


Looks good!!! (perhaps a little too optimistic in my opinion)...

just wondering how accurate have your predictions been in the past - since 1999?

% of accuracy would be a good gauge :)

yabadaba
10-08-2007, 11:36 AM
bharat premi..what are the statistics that you are basing EB2 movement on?

those who have forgotten, EB2 India was current till the October 2005 bulletin. In 2005 there were a total of 7076 Labor certification via PERM (including EB3 other worker categories) from March 2005 till December 2005.

dealsnet
10-08-2007, 11:40 AM
No impact on BEC approvals on retrogression, BECAUSE THEY NEED TO GET I-140 to be approved, then only their case to be on the line for visa number. Now no premium processing, their I-140 is going to get approved dring May OR June 2008. Till then the guys with I-140 approved and filed in June 2007 get GC. BEC approvals on 2001, 2002, 2003 cases after june 30th (last date for premium) will be on above catagory.

willwin
10-08-2007, 12:16 PM
No impact on BEC approvals on retrogression, BECAUSE THEY NEED TO GET I-140 to be approved, then only their case to be on the line for visa number. Now no premium processing, their I-140 is going to get approved dring May OR June 2008. Till then the guys with I-140 approved and filed in June 2007 get GC. BEC approvals on 2001, 2002, 2003 cases after june 30th (last date for premium) will be on above catagory.

I agree with you. That's the reason I feel USCIS is just taking time to get their act together and move forward with PD.

I am very doubtful that DOS would open the gates completely next July (like this year) as they had very bad experience. But EB3 dates may move to early 2005 (March 2005 may be - before PERM was launched) and EB2 close to 2006.

RandyK
10-08-2007, 12:22 PM
I will appreciate your comments

mheggade
10-08-2007, 12:56 PM
Till early part of 2004 or latter part of 2003, most of the Indians applied EB3 very few applied EB2. After 2004, it was reverse. I doubt any one appled EB3 in 2005 0r 2006.

If EB3 stays continously in 2001 and EB2 in 2004 (there is 3 year difference in cutoff date between EB2 and EB3 now), the guys with EB3 PD 2002 and 2003 will convert to EB2 by applying new 140 to transfer PD. This flow will balance the cut-off dates. Eventually it will reach a common ground or a break-even point.

I doubt that people try to change from EB3 to EB2 , given the fact that they need get I140 approval which is taking more than 14 months and USCIS announced recently that, they are not bringing back I140 PP in the near future.

RandyK
10-08-2007, 02:09 PM
I will appreciate your comments

:D

alex99
10-08-2007, 02:28 PM
It seems some people already coverted\or in the process of coverting from Eb3 to Eb2. Even I did that recently.

Regards,
Alex

willwin
10-08-2007, 02:54 PM
It seems some people already coverted\or in the process of coverting from Eb3 to Eb2. Even I did that recently.

Regards,
Alex

When you do that, will you retain both cases or give up one?

And, say, my case is CP and is already in Consulate awaiting interview. If I start a new LC in EB2, do I have to give up my existing case?

Ramba
10-08-2007, 03:05 PM
It seems some people already coverted\or in the process of coverting from Eb3 to Eb2. Even I did that recently.

Regards,
Alex

This process was already done by many in later part of 2005, entire 2006 and in early part of 2007. We do not know how many got out from the 485 Que in 2007. Many of those might have filed 485 recently in the july fiasco. The impact of these conversion will be felt only after 5 to 6 months or even after an year.

willwin
10-08-2007, 04:37 PM
So, from what I read in this thread:

* EB2 (India/China) may not have MANY cases with PD earlier than 2005 as only after retrogression (in 2005), EB2 started piling up.

* Most 2001/2002 EB3 cases are approved (in June/July/August 2007) and they may be still receiving approvals off numbers reserved for them in June/July 2007. Hence, the natural movement for EB3 to 2003 in the near future.

* If most of the EB3 cases filed in June/Juy are not processed by USCIS by next June (2008), then PD may become current during the last quarter of FY 2008 (or atleast to end of 2006). If enough cases are approved (and pending for VISA numbers), then it may move only to 2004 or early 2005.

* EB2 - same logic as above - it may become current or move to early 2006.

Makes sense?

amslonewolf
10-08-2007, 04:54 PM
Your analysis doesn't include the impact of LC substitutions that happened.

skdskd
10-08-2007, 05:01 PM
Your analysis doesn't include the impact of LC substitutions that happened.

Yep... Lot's of line jumpers in 2006 and 2007

BharatPremi
10-12-2007, 12:10 PM
I will appreciate your comments

RandyK, Yabadaba, EkAuraaya,

Sorry guys I was busy in other forums all these days. Today somehow I visited this forum and found your comments.

Now coming to the point it is very hard for me to put stats from 1999 to till today as a "proof" here but I will try to summarized in terms of events. And generally I will keep my predictions tagged to INDIA only because I have not studied or analyzed other categories greatly.

1) Till 2000 second quarter Labor approval in old system was really fast.
People used to have approved labor in one and half months in states like
california. If you arrived in USA in year 2005 or your GC is filed in 2005 or
thereafter you would not understand why I am writing this but ask the
importance about this sentence to the people who filed GC between 2001
and 2005.RIR was kind of recent concept and zillions of oppertunists were
taking advantage of that and still system was not broken. Categories were
not mattered much like today as for both catgories avg GC time was 2 to 3
years from start to end.

2) Here comes famous year 2001 - USCIS came up with AC21 and
simultaneously RIR catgory was starting having problems as those zillions
in step 1 already started clogging "RIR" and most of them were under EB2
USCIS (Then INS) started denial or tightened screws on RIR filing. Lawyers
started to force non-rir and preferably EB3 only category. From this point
onward category started to be mattered much and that thing is still going
on today. An dyet I have not talked about the mess and pile AC21
created with tons of bogus filings. EB2 clogging already became visible due
to RIR based filings... Lawyers were forcing EB3 and non-RIR filing and
couple ing with bogus filing EB3 Queue instantly became monsterous
(Within 6 months, or by the end of 2001) . Another factor is H1b Visa limit
made 195000 from 65000

3) RIR clogging mentioned in step 2 could become controllable so new filing
again get diverted towards EB2 with the knowledge of huge piled up filing
in Eb3. By year 2002 mid USCIS start experiencing "Adminsitrative
problems" and "huge work load and insufficient staff" and hence slow
approvals for labor. Simultaneously economy bubble bursted. Many
legitimate files became garbage as people were laid off left and right. For
survival in USA those laid off people join the queues of consulting
companies and multiple filings started to become visible.

4) Year 2003 - EB2 faced little retrogression briefly for 4-5 months and
second trend of RIR denials and second trend of forcing EB3- NON RIR
filing. EB3 faced brief retrogression for 2 months. Year 2003 finished with 2
Huge lines. Eb2 and Eb3. EB2 was predominantly RIR filings.. Screaming
already started and it was about to become like July fiasco at the first
quarter of year 2004. Because logically RIR was supposed to be faster
processing and it was serving its own purpose. Somehow USCIS realized
that and in all categories Eb2 started to be processed faster and Eb3 is
blocked. (Hey USCIS had 140000 visas only per year even at that time).
So end effect at the end of year 2004 the infamous block of EB3 got
implemented successfully and EB2 was running like "milkha singh".

5) By the year 2005 first quarter many people had to still wait although they
observed that they are in EB3 trap as economy was still bad. These group
slowly started to jump the fence either using LC substitution or new direct
filing under EB2. I remember one of my frined in California was asking me
that where he should pay $ 21000 for LC to desi comapny or not.
By the end of this process of jumping the fence to EB2 accelerated and
lasted till Year 2006. PERM was introduced.Backlog Centers were introduced.
For the whole 2 years (2005, 2006 and last quarter of 2004) EB3 was blocked
and EB2 was given preference.By the end of 2006 most stuck in EB2 since 2001
were released and got their GC. Now EB3 could start flowing.

6) You already know 2007 events.

7) Bottomline now EB3 will move upwards till 2005 mid with first priority and EB
2 will also brought till 2005 mid but this will be done by moving Eb3 first as
it is already way behind.

8) Once both EB2 and EB3 reches 2005 mid bench mark Eb2 will again
become faster with comparision to EB3.

Note: I have not talked about LC substitution practice during 2001 to 2004 but that black market was already flourishing
during all those years. And Have decided not to put 9/11 as a factor because nobody has a proof that USCIS
decided slow bleed based on 9/11. Yes we feel that but we cann ot produce the proof.

yabadaba
10-12-2007, 12:22 PM
RandyK, Yabadaba, EkAuraaya,

Sorry guys I was busy in other forums all these days. Today somehow I visited this forum and found your comments.

Now coming to the point it is very hard for me to put stats from 1999 to till today as a "proof" here but I will try to summarized in terms of events. And generally I will keep my predictions tagged to INDIA only because I have not studied or analyzed other categories greatly.

1) Till 2000 second quarter Labor approval in old system was really fast.
People used to have approved labor in one and half months in states like
california. If you arrived in USA in year 2005 or your GC is filed in 2005 or
thereafter you would not understand why I am writing this but ask the
importance about this sentence to the people who filed GC between 2001
and 2005.RIR was kind of recent concept and zillions of oppertunists were
taking advantage of that and still system was not broken. Categories were
not mattered much like today as for both catgories avg GC time was 2 to 3 years from start to end.

2) Here comes famous year 2001 - USCIS came up with AC21 and
simultaneously RIR catgory was starting having problems as those zillions
in step 1 already started clogging "RIR" and most of them were under EB2
USCIS (Then INS) started denial or tightened screws on RIR filing. Lawyers
started to force non-rir and preferably EB3 only category. From this point
onward category started to be mattered much and that thing is still going
on today. An dyet I have not talked about the mess and pile AC21
created with tons of bogus filings. EB2 clogging already became visible due
to RIR based filings... Lawyers were forcing EB3 and non-RIR filing and
couple ing with bogus filing EB3 Queue instantly became monsterous
(Within 6 months, or by the end of 2001) . Another factor is H1b Visa limit
made 195000 from 65000

3) RIR clogging mentioned in step 2 could become controllable so new filing
again get diverted towards EB2 with the knowledge of huge piled up filing
in Eb3. By year 2002 mid USCIS start experiencing "Adminsitrative
problems" and "huge work load and insufficient staff" and hence slow
approvals for labor. Simultaneously economy bubble bursted. Many
legitimate files became garbage as people were laid off left and right. For
survival in USA those laid off people join the queues of consulting
companies and multiple filings started to become visible.

4) Year 2003 - EB2 faced little retrogression briefly for 4-5 months and
second trend of RIR denials and second trend of forcing EB3- NON RIR
filing. EB3 faced brief retrogression for 2 months. Year 2003 finished with 2
Huge lines. Eb2 and Eb3. EB2 was predominantly RIR filings.. Screaming
already started and it was about to become like July fiasco at the first
quarter of year 2004. Because logically RIR was supposed to be faster
processing and it was serving its own purpose. Somehow USCIS realized
that and in all categories Eb2 started to be processed faster and Eb3 is
blocked. (Hey USCIS had 140000 visas only per year even at that time).
So end effect at the end of year 2004 the infamous block of EB3 got
implemented successfully and EB2 was running like "milkha singh".

5) By the year 2005 first quarter many people had to still wait although they
observed that they are in EB3 trap as economy was still bad. These group
slowly started to jump the fence. By the end of this process of jumping the
fence to EB2 accelerated and lasted till Year 2006. PERM was introduced.
Backlog Centers were introduced. For the whole 2 years (2005, 2006 and
last quarter of 2004) EB3 was blocked and EB2 was given preference.
By the end of 2006 most stuck in EB2 since 2001 were released and got
their GC. Now EB3 could start flowing.

6) You already know 2007 events.

7) Bottomline now EB3 will move upwards till 2005 mid with first priority and EB
2 will also brought till 2005 mid but this will be done by moving Eb3 first as
it is already way behind.

8) Once both EB2 and EB3 reches 2005 mid bench mark Eb2 will again
become faster with comparision to EB3.
what you say makes no sense absolutely

alex99
10-12-2007, 12:24 PM
BharatPremi. It looks good.

yabadaba
10-12-2007, 12:27 PM
what you say makes no sense absolutely
I will elaborate. EB2 was current untill September 30th 2005. So where does the 2003 "screeching blah blah" come into effect?

Besides ike I have posted countless times...there were only 2000+ approvals for Labor certifications for India between march2005 and october 2005

and only 7000 labor certifications for India between march 2005 and december 2005.

These include a number of labor certifications for other worker categories. I myself saw at least 500 pipefitters and welders and joiners whose labor certification had been approved from Louisiana (maybe cos of katrina)

so if the priority dates have to move for EB2 they will move to jan 2006 (like the chinese have) or remain at 2004

BharatPremi
10-12-2007, 12:34 PM
I will elaborate. EB2 was current untill September 30th 2005. So where does the 2003 "screeching blah blah" come into effect?

Besides ike I have posted countless times...there were only 2000+ approvals for Labor certifications for India between march2005 and october 2005

and only 7000 labor certifications for India between march 2005 and december 2005.

These include a number of labor certifications for other worker categories. I myself saw at least 500 pipefitters and welders and joiners whose labor certification had been approved from Louisiana (maybe cos of katrina)

so if the priority dates have to move for EB2 they will move to jan 2006 (like the chinese have) or remain at 2004

Perhaps can you start studying bulletins from January 1999 once again please? And I would request you to gather up "major events", "Major law/system related changes" from year 2001 to 2006. Perhaps, yes then you and I will be on the same board.

vdlrao
10-12-2007, 12:41 PM
As every one here knows, the visa movements based on how many LC approvals in a perticular period but not based on the previous analasis. After PERM is introduced, most people started applying in EB2 than EB3 because of many reasons.

yabadaba
10-12-2007, 12:46 PM
i have no idea what ur talking about. i just looked at all the bulletins on the dos website and there was no question of retrogression till january 2005 when india and china
retrogressed to jan 2002 for EB3...it moved forward till june2005 (retrogressed to june2002) before it became unavailable.

Finally retrogression as we know it hit on october 2005 where eb2 moved to 99 and eb3 to 98

so where does "brief retrogression" in 2003 happen?

yabadaba
10-12-2007, 12:47 PM
"Year 2003 - EB2 faced little retrogression briefly for 4-5 months and
second trend of RIR denials and second trend of forcing EB3- NON RIR
filing. EB3 faced brief retrogression for 2 months. "

Bharat Premi please clarify

gc_chahiye
10-12-2007, 01:10 PM
I will elaborate. EB2 was current untill September 30th 2005. So where does the 2003 "screeching blah blah" come into effect?

Besides ike I have posted countless times...there were only 2000+ approvals for Labor certifications for India between march2005 and october 2005

and only 7000 labor certifications for India between march 2005 and december 2005.

These include a number of labor certifications for other worker categories. I myself saw at least 500 pipefitters and welders and joiners whose labor certification had been approved from Louisiana (maybe cos of katrina)

so if the priority dates have to move for EB2 they will move to jan 2006 (like the chinese have) or remain at 2004

there are also a TON of filers who filed in first quarter of 2005, mainly to stay in the old system, as people were scated of the new one (PERM). maybe 300-400 of those are from where I work (they also incidentally started processing GCs again from Q4 2004 after layoffs in 2001-2003. So expect a bump before we get into PERM, but as you say after March 2005 things should be smooth till 2006 Jan

willwin
10-12-2007, 01:49 PM
Perhaps can you start studying bulletins from January 1999 once again please? And I would request you to gather up "major events", "Major law/system related changes" from year 2001 to 2006. Perhaps, yes then you and I will be on the same board.

I agree with BharatPremi, by and large.

Let me put it in a different way. Let us assume that DOS will end up using 90% of the VISA numbers during FY2008 (which means they will waste 10% which is an acceptable estimate). And to use these 90% numbers, they have to move the dates forward. As simple as that.

And all 2005 PD cases and most 2004 cases and few (or most) 2003 cases filed 485 between Jun-Aug 2007 which means those applications are not ready for approval yet and hence will not be a cause for retrogression.

Dates will and has to move forward this year. It may retrogress again once these 485 applications are processed and become ready for approval (consuming VISA numbers).

sroyc
10-12-2007, 02:18 PM
I totally agree with you.

what you say makes no sense absolutely

gc_chahiye
10-12-2007, 02:40 PM
7) Bottomline now EB3 will move upwards till 2005 mid with first priority and EB
2 will also brought till 2005 mid but this will be done by moving Eb3 first as
it is already way behind.


EB2 will move to 2005, but not as fast as you think. See these IV polls:

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=6266
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=6128

again a small sample and possibly statistically invalid; but 50% of people waiting for GC from EB2-India have PD < March_2005.


8) Once both EB2 and EB3 reches 2005 mid bench mark Eb2 will again
become faster with comparision to EB3.


why? Most people past 2005 have actively tried for EB2. Either by abandoning earlier filings and doing a fresh one in PERM, or by trying to recapture them.
In 2001 no one cared if your LC was filed in EB2 or EB3. From 2005 onwards people are actively looking for EB2.

willwin
10-12-2007, 02:53 PM
EB2 will move to 2005, but not as fast as you think. See these IV polls:

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=6266
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=6128

again a small sample and possibly statistically invalid; but 50% of people waiting for GC from EB2-India have PD < March_2005.



why? Most people past 2005 have actively tried for EB2. Either by abandoning earlier filings and doing a fresh one in PERM, or by trying to recapture them.
In 2001 no one cared if your LC was filed in EB2 or EB3. From 2005 onwards people are actively looking for EB2.


If 50% of people from India have PD < 2005, all the more reason that EB3 would move forward!

yabadaba
10-12-2007, 03:33 PM
gc chahiye.. both polls were excellent.. can you redo them and see if we can get a larger sample size?


I wonder how many of the PD earlier than 2003, I-485 filed and 2004 PD, I-485 filed and 2005 PD, I-485 filed must have gotten gcs in the july fiasco.

BharatPremi
10-12-2007, 03:46 PM
"Year 2003 - EB2 faced little retrogression briefly for 4-5 months and
second trend of RIR denials and second trend of forcing EB3- NON RIR
filing. EB3 faced brief retrogression for 2 months. "

Bharat Premi please clarify

It is difficult for me to produce all "Proofs" at this point of time, perhaps if I dig my some of past CDs I may be able to bring some articles but it will be a hell of time. Anyway still trying to put some explanation. First of all you need to understand the difference between today's bulletin system and bulletin system prevalent around 1999-2003. I vaguely remember, mostly till 2002 mid only Mexico and Philipines and India were "oversubscribed" countries.INS played a very smart game with bulletins then as well but somehow there was no public cry like what we experienced during this july. I do not remember exactly but probably during almost whole 2003 and perhaps for some months during 2002 India was out from "Oversubscribed" category. Before that India was used to be "Current" almost all the time. Now during the time India compeltely disapperared from bulletins, we needed to solely depend upon the internal news about retrogression and most of the information I was used to get from immigration.com and murthy.com articles and many articles were talking about this EB2 and Eb3 retrogression.

BharatPremi
10-12-2007, 03:52 PM
gc chahiye.. both polls were excellent.. can you redo them and see if we can get a larger sample size?


I wonder how many of the PD earlier than 2003, I-485 filed and 2004 PD, I-485 filed and 2005 PD, I-485 filed must have gotten gcs in the july fiasco.


My many friends from EB3 -Jan to Jun 2003 PD are still in process. I have met 2 EB2-May 2003PD guys already having GC. Very small sample but thought to mention it.

BharatPremi
10-12-2007, 03:59 PM
[QUOTE= From 2005 onwards people are actively looking for EB2.[/QUOTE]

And that is the problem with new bees. They do not have knowledge about the prevalent effects of past occurances and generally people decide about filing by hearing 4 frineds and reading 3 suggestions from the forum. In my opinion, assuming USCIS will work like the way it is working till now, it is dangerous for somebody to apply a "new File" under Eb2 category. Again this is based on assumption that everything will rmain the same way. If tomorrow there will be a drastic change in the law like 800000 total EB visas per year then things will be changed. If I would be 2007 filer, I would file under EB3 category.

yabadaba
10-12-2007, 04:18 PM
bharat premi...please look at this link...it has all the bulletins from 2002. please point me to single instance where the the bulletin was retrogressed even once in 2002-2003

http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_1770.html

This is the link from 95-2001

http://dosfan.lib.uic.edu/ERC/visa_bulletin/


there was retrogression in 99, but after the recapture of numbers under ac21, there was no retrogression from july 2001 till 2005

EkAurAaya
10-12-2007, 04:35 PM
My many friends from EB3 -Jan to Jun 2003 PD are still in process. I have met 2 EB2-May 2003PD guys already having GC. Very small sample but thought to mention it.
BharatPremi Please tell me I am wrong! i collected some data... and just by looking at it... it seems like EB3 will move very very slowly not as per your prediction! I m not a stats guru perhaps you or anyone who is a stats guru can shed some light here!

What is your EB3-India PD (I-485 either pending, or not yet filed)
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=6203

Total Applicants (that voted) = 206
_______________
% distribution
_______________
43.21% 2001/2002/2003
25.25% 2004
16.51% 2005
13.59% 2006
1.46% 2007
_______________

Total Visa available / country = 140000/7% = 9800 in a year
Keep aside 10% for other categories, so 90% available for EB2 and EB3
9800 - 980 = 8820 total available for India EB2/EB3
50-50 between eb2 eb3 (assumption - probably a bad assumption)
4410/year available for EB3?

(This is where it really gets tricky!)
ASSUMPTION -
Approximate Indian EB3 Applications
Total Indian applicants / 2 (50-50 between eb2 and eb3)
Total 200k (low estimate) so EB3 100k approx
+ 100k Dependants = 200k Total EB3

Year 2001/2002/2003 = 43.21% = 46286

Number of years to clear off Backlog (2003 and prior) = 46286/4410 = 10 1/2 years

Up until 1/5/2007 PD was stable at around 5/8/2001

I think EB3 movement will be very slow based on above calculations

EDIT: Even if Unused Visas get funneled down to EB3 India > cut the time in 1/2 still looks like 4-5 years to clear EB3 < 2003

Does this sound right?

__________________________________________________ ______
VB History (Since Retrogression)
Year - Priority Date
1/12/2004 - C
1/1/2005 - 1/1/2002
1/2/2005 - 1/1/2002
1/3/2005 - 3/1/2002
1/4/2005 - 4/1/2002
1/5/2005 - 6/1/2002
1/6/2005 - 6/1/2002
1/7/2005 - U
1/8/2005 - U
1/9/2005 - U
1/10/2005 - 1/1/1998
1/11/2005 - 1/1/1998
1/12/2005 - 1/1/1999
1/1/2006 - 6/1/1999
1/2/2006 - 1/1/2000
1/3/2006 - 1/1/2001
1/4/2006 - 2/1/2001
1/5/2006 - 3/1/2001
1/6/2006 - 4/8/2001
1/7/2006 - 4/15/2001
1/8/2006 - 4/1/2001
1/9/2006 - 4/15/2001
1/10/2006 - 4/22/2001
1/11/2006 - 4/22/2001
1/12/2006 - 4/22/2001
1/1/2007 - 5/8/2001
1/2/2007 - 5/8/2001
1/3/2007 - 5/8/2001
1/4/2007 - 5/8/2001
1/5/2007 - 5/8/2001
1/6/2007 - 6/1/2003
1/7/2007 - C
1/8/2007 - U
1/9/2007 - U
1/10/2007 - 4/22/2001
1/11/2007 - 4/22/2001
___________________________

gc4me
10-12-2007, 04:48 PM
BharatPremi and other who have put lots of time and thought analyzing-
Can you talk a bit about ROW EB3. Do you think with PD MAY 2004, with EAD, AP on hand, should I try a new EB2 or stick with the old one?

EkAurAaya
10-12-2007, 04:50 PM
BharatPremi and other who have put lots of time and thought analyzing-
Can you talk a bit about ROW EB3. Do you think with PD MAY 2004, with EAD, AP on hand, should I try a new EB2 or stick with the old one?

I don't see any problems for ROW - i think your strategy should be wait and watch (at least for the next 6 months)

willwin
10-12-2007, 04:59 PM
BharatPremi Please tell me I am wrong! i collected some data... and just by looking at it... it seems like EB3 will move very very slowly not as per your prediction! I m not a stats guru perhaps you or anyone who is a stats guru can shed some light here!

What is your EB3-India PD (I-485 either pending, or not yet filed)
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=6203

Total Applicants (that voted) = 206
_______________
% distribution
_______________
43.21% 2001/2002/2003
25.25% 2004
16.51% 2005
13.59% 2006
1.46% 2007
_______________

Total Visa available / country = 140000/7% = 9800 in a year
Keep aside 10% for other categories, so 90% available for EB2 and EB3
9800 - 980 = 8820 total available for India EB2/EB3
50-50 between eb2 eb3 (assumption - probably a bad assumption)
4410/year available for EB3?

(This is where it really gets tricky!)
ASSUMPTION -
Approximate Indian EB3 Applications
Total Indian applicants / 2 (50-50 between eb2 and eb3)
Total 200k (low estimate) so EB3 100k approx
+ 100k Dependants = 200k Total EB3

Year 2001/2002/2003 = 43.21% = 46286

Number of years to clear off Backlog (2003 and prior) = 46286/4410 = 10 1/2 years

Up until 1/5/2007 PD was stable at around 5/8/2001

I think EB3 movement will be very slow based on above calculations

EDIT: Even if Unused Visas get funneled down to EB3 India > cut the time in 1/2 still looks like 4-5 years to clear EB3 < 2003

Does this sound right?

__________________________________________________ ______
VB History (Since Retrogression)
Year - Priority Date
1/12/2004 - C
1/1/2005 - 1/1/2002
1/2/2005 - 1/1/2002
1/3/2005 - 3/1/2002
1/4/2005 - 4/1/2002
1/5/2005 - 6/1/2002
1/6/2005 - 6/1/2002
1/7/2005 - U
1/8/2005 - U
1/9/2005 - U
1/10/2005 - 1/1/1998
1/11/2005 - 1/1/1998
1/12/2005 - 1/1/1999
1/1/2006 - 6/1/1999
1/2/2006 - 1/1/2000
1/3/2006 - 1/1/2001
1/4/2006 - 2/1/2001
1/5/2006 - 3/1/2001
1/6/2006 - 4/8/2001
1/7/2006 - 4/15/2001
1/8/2006 - 4/1/2001
1/9/2006 - 4/15/2001
1/10/2006 - 4/22/2001
1/11/2006 - 4/22/2001
1/12/2006 - 4/22/2001
1/1/2007 - 5/8/2001
1/2/2007 - 5/8/2001
1/3/2007 - 5/8/2001
1/4/2007 - 5/8/2001
1/5/2007 - 5/8/2001
1/6/2007 - 6/1/2003
1/7/2007 - C
1/8/2007 - U
1/9/2007 - U
1/10/2007 - 4/22/2001
1/11/2007 - 4/22/2001
___________________________


Let me start saying that I am not 'stats guru' either.

My simple way of looking at it is the way it happened in June-July 2007. Why did they open the gates? To use up the VISA numbers for the FY.

What can they do to do the same this year? Open it again (may not make it current but to the extent they can use 140000 by Sep 30 2008).

As most 485 applications will notbe processed for another 6-9 months (among Jun-Aug filers), dates will move forward (may become current as well) and whoever has their 485, name check processed will get their GC besides all pending at CP.

They definitely do not have 140000 processed, name-check-completed 485 applications at hand. Hence dates will move.

andy garcia
10-12-2007, 05:04 PM
bharat premi...please look at this link...it has all the bulletins from 2002. please point me to single instance where the the bulletin was retrogressed even once in 2002-2003

http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_1770.html

This is the link from 95-2001

http://dosfan.lib.uic.edu/ERC/visa_bulletin/


there was retrogression in 99, but after the recapture of numbers under ac21, there was no retrogression from july 2001 till 2005

Chronography of facts

EB was current from AUGUST 1999 until April 2000.

This warning was issued in the March 2000 VB:
VISA AVAILABILITY FOR APRIL(2000)

“Demand for immigrant visa numbers by INS for AOS cases in all categories, continues to be steady but has not reached the level requiring action at this time. It is anticipated that INS demand for numbers will require the establishment of visa cut-off dates for April in some or all of the CHINA-mainland born and INDIA Employment categories”.

In May 2000. EB2 was retrogressed to 01JUL97 for China and 01APR99 for India

In December 2000 VB the big announcement came:
Greater availability of EB immigrant visas: On October 17th, the President signed P.L. 106-313. Title I of this law is known as the "American Competitiveness in the Twenty-first Century Act of 2000" and contains amendments to the INA regarding EB immigrant visas.
In fiscal years 1999 and 2000, due in part to the per-country limits, the annual limit for EB immigrant visas was not reached. P.L. 106-313 makes the following changes in an attempt to rectify the situation with regard to per-country limits:
Section 106 recaptures those EB visa numbers that were available but not used in fiscal years 1999 and 2000, creating a "pool" of approximately 130,000 numbers. These numbers could be made available to applicants in the EB1, EB2 and EB3 preference categories beginning in fiscal year 2001.
Section 104 removes the per-country limit in instances where the overall applicant demand for EB visas is less than the numbers available without regard to those limits. This determination will be made quarterly, based on a comparison of the overall demand versus the available numbers. If the total number of available EB visas is greater than the number of qualified applicants who may otherwise be issued such visas (during the same period), the per-country limitations on EB visas will be lifted for the remainder of that quarter.
In May 2001 EB2 became current again for both India and China.

July 2001 VB:
EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCE CATEGORIES:
All categories have become "Current" for July, and are expected to remain so for the remainder of FY-2001. The cut-off date movement in all oversubscribed categories has been extremely rapid during the past year. This is because the FY-2001 limit is approximately 50,000 higher than normal, and legislative changes removed the per-country limitation if there are otherwise unused EB numbers available.
All categories are expected to remain "Current" for the foreseeable future.

January 2005 VB
OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF EB3 FOR CHINA, INDIA, AND THE PHILPPINES

June 2005 VB
EMPLOYMENT VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE REMAINDER OF FY-2005
During the past month there has been a significant increase in the amount of numbers being used by CIS offices for AOS applicants. This level of demand has significantly depleted the supply of EB numbers available under the annual limit. Recent discussions with CIS have made it clear that their backlog reduction efforts will sustain or increase the current level of demand. Therefore, continued visa availability in the EB categories cannot be guaranteed during the final quarter of FY-2005. If demand continues at the current rate, it will be necessary to oversubscribe many or all of the EB categories on a Worldwide basis. Such oversubscription could result in the establishment of cut-off dates, retrogression of already established dates, or some categories becoming “unavailable”.
July 2005 VB
EMPLOYMENT VISA AVAILABILITY FOR JULY AND THE REMAINDER OF FY-2005
EB3 and Third Other Worker categories have reached their annual limits and no further FY-2005 allocations are possible for the period July through September.

September 2005 VB
EMPLOYMENT VISA AVAILABILITY DURING FY-2006
The backlog reduction efforts of both CIS, and the DOL continue to result in very heavy demand for EB numbers. It is anticipated that the amount of such cases will be sufficient to use all available numbers in many categories. As a result cut-off dates in the EB3 category will apply to the China, India, and Philippines chargeabilities beginning in October, and it is possible that Mexico may be added to this list. In addition, it is anticipated that heavy demand will require the establishment of a EB3 cut-off date on a Worldwide basis by December.
The amount of Employment demand for applicants from China and India is also likely to result in the oversubcription of the EB1 and B2 categories for those chargeability areas. The establishment of such cut-off dates is expected to occur no later than December.
The level of demand in the Employment categories is expected to be far in excess of the annual limits, and once established, cut-off date movements are likely to be slow.

October 2005 VB:
EMPLOYMENT PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILTIY
Item D in the September VB announcing the September cut-off dates provided information regarding the prospects of visa availability during the early months of FY-2006. Many categories have become oversubscribed for October, and cut-off dates established due to continued heavy demand for numbers by CIS for adjustment of status cases. Forward movement of the cut-off dates in these categories is likely to be limited.

And IV was born.

Have a nice weekend.

EkAurAaya
10-12-2007, 05:13 PM
Let me start saying that I am not 'stats guru' either.

My simple way of looking at it is the way it happened in June-July 2007. Why did they open the gates? To use up the VISA numbers for the FY.

What can they do to do the same this year? Open it again (may not make it current but to the extent they can use 140000 by Sep 30 2008).

As most 485 applications will notbe processed for another 6-9 months (among Jun-Aug filers), dates will move forward (may become current as well) and whoever has their 485, name check processed will get their GC besides all pending at CP.

They definitely do not have 140000 processed, name-check-completed 485 applications at hand. Hence dates will move.

I dont think the dates will become current anytime soon (we are talking years now) reason being... they have more information now then had earlier this year (they now know exactly how many and what year PD's)...

vdlrao
10-12-2007, 05:15 PM
Chronography of facts

EB was current from AUGUST 1999 until April 2000.

This warning was issued in the March 2000 VB:
VISA AVAILABILITY FOR APRIL(2000)

“Demand for immigrant visa numbers by INS for AOS cases in all categories, continues to be steady but has not reached the level requiring action at this time. It is anticipated that INS demand for numbers will require the establishment of visa cut-off dates for April in some or all of the CHINA-mainland born and INDIA Employment categories”.

In May 2000. EB2 was retrogressed to 01JUL97 for China and 01APR99 for India

In December 2000 VB the big announcement came:
Greater availability of EB immigrant visas: On October 17th, the President signed P.L. 106-313. Title I of this law is known as the "American Competitiveness in the Twenty-first Century Act of 2000" and contains amendments to the INA regarding EB immigrant visas.
In fiscal years 1999 and 2000, due in part to the per-country limits, the annual limit for EB immigrant visas was not reached. P.L. 106-313 makes the following changes in an attempt to rectify the situation with regard to per-country limits:
Section 106 recaptures those EB visa numbers that were available but not used in fiscal years 1999 and 2000, creating a "pool" of approximately 130,000 numbers. These numbers could be made available to applicants in the EB1, EB2 and EB3 preference categories beginning in fiscal year 2001.
Section 104 removes the per-country limit in instances where the overall applicant demand for EB visas is less than the numbers available without regard to those limits. This determination will be made quarterly, based on a comparison of the overall demand versus the available numbers. If the total number of available EB visas is greater than the number of qualified applicants who may otherwise be issued such visas (during the same period), the per-country limitations on EB visas will be lifted for the remainder of that quarter.
In May 2001 EB2 became current again for both India and China.

July 2001 VB:
EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCE CATEGORIES:
All categories have become "Current" for July, and are expected to remain so for the remainder of FY-2001. The cut-off date movement in all oversubscribed categories has been extremely rapid during the past year. This is because the FY-2001 limit is approximately 50,000 higher than normal, and legislative changes removed the per-country limitation if there are otherwise unused EB numbers available.
All categories are expected to remain "Current" for the foreseeable future.

January 2005 VB
OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF EB3 FOR CHINA, INDIA, AND THE PHILPPINES

June 2005 VB
EMPLOYMENT VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE REMAINDER OF FY-2005
During the past month there has been a significant increase in the amount of numbers being used by CIS offices for AOS applicants. This level of demand has significantly depleted the supply of EB numbers available under the annual limit. Recent discussions with CIS have made it clear that their backlog reduction efforts will sustain or increase the current level of demand. Therefore, continued visa availability in the EB categories cannot be guaranteed during the final quarter of FY-2005. If demand continues at the current rate, it will be necessary to oversubscribe many or all of the EB categories on a Worldwide basis. Such oversubscription could result in the establishment of cut-off dates, retrogression of already established dates, or some categories becoming “unavailable”.
July 2005 VB
EMPLOYMENT VISA AVAILABILITY FOR JULY AND THE REMAINDER OF FY-2005
EB3 and Third Other Worker categories have reached their annual limits and no further FY-2005 allocations are possible for the period July through September.

September 2005 VB
EMPLOYMENT VISA AVAILABILITY DURING FY-2006
The backlog reduction efforts of both CIS, and the DOL continue to result in very heavy demand for EB numbers. It is anticipated that the amount of such cases will be sufficient to use all available numbers in many categories. As a result cut-off dates in the EB3 category will apply to the China, India, and Philippines chargeabilities beginning in October, and it is possible that Mexico may be added to this list. In addition, it is anticipated that heavy demand will require the establishment of a EB3 cut-off date on a Worldwide basis by December.
The amount of Employment demand for applicants from China and India is also likely to result in the oversubcription of the EB1 and B2 categories for those chargeability areas. The establishment of such cut-off dates is expected to occur no later than December.
The level of demand in the Employment categories is expected to be far in excess of the annual limits, and once established, cut-off date movements are likely to be slow.

October 2005 VB:
EMPLOYMENT PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILTIY
Item D in the September VB announcing the September cut-off dates provided information regarding the prospects of visa availability during the early months of FY-2006. Many categories have become oversubscribed for October, and cut-off dates established due to continued heavy demand for numbers by CIS for adjustment of status cases. Forward movement of the cut-off dates in these categories is likely to be limited.

And IV was born.

Have a nice weekend.



Very Good Post to know what has happened so far for EB category.

BharatPremi
10-12-2007, 05:24 PM
bharat premi...please look at this link...it has all the bulletins from 2002. please point me to single instance where the the bulletin was retrogressed even once in 2002-2003

http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_1770.html



Glad, you took pain to check and see all bulletins. Can you see India in 2003 bulletins? India was simply dispappeared from earlier months-2003 bulletins. It was no more "OverSubscribed" country as per INS. In reality in background Eb3 India was on hold and almost all the year treated like step child by INS. EB2 India was doing good throughout 2003. Since bulletins kicked India out how can you know then? Mymajor source of information as usual was murthy.com and immigration.com. I vaguely remember murthy came up with one or two warning articles about "administrative" hold on Eb3 processing and severe future Eb3 retrogressions then.

yabadaba
10-12-2007, 05:27 PM
Glad, you took pain to check and see all bulletins. Can you see India in 2003 bulletins? India was simple dispappeared from 2003 bulletins. It was no more "OverSubscribed" country as per INS. In reality in background Eb3 India was hold and almost all the year treated like step child by INS. EB2 India was doing good throughout 2003. Since bulletins kicked India out how can you know then? Mymajor source of information as usual was murthy.com and immigration.com. I vaguely remember murthy came up with one or two warning articles about "administrative" hold on Eb3 processing and severe future Eb3 retrogressions then.
ok dude..watever u say....maybe there was a law applicable only for you and your friends or something

gc_chahiye
10-12-2007, 05:27 PM
If 50% of people from India have PD < 2005, all the more reason that EB3 would move forward!

nope, EB3 is a different story altogether: there is always a big demand for EB3. People graduate from colleges in India and come here on H1s, many of them dont have either a masters degree or 5 years of experience, so have no choice but to file in EB3. Many big companies take a conservative approach with the position that has been advertised, and if it is a "junior" level position insist on EB3 (even if the person filing was eligible for EB2). Strictly speaking thats correct, as its the position that determines EB level, not just the person.
Its people with US Masters, or who have done their BS <2002 who have a shot at EB2. That data was specifically for EB2 India PD distribution. That does not mean the EB3 India line is smaller or will move any faster. There are enough people in EB2 pipeline to keep USCIS busy and that category retrogressed (with current quotas)

loudobbs
10-12-2007, 05:28 PM
Out of 800,000 visa pending is it reasonable to say that a majority of the cases (maybe 400,000?) are cases with PD >=2005?? If so the number of pending cases with earlier PD dates (2001 to 2005) will be less. If you break this down by year, the number of pending cases by year does not seem much.. If they process by PD they should clear older cases like 2001 -2003 or even 2004 by end of 2008??

Any thoughts???????

yabadaba
10-12-2007, 05:28 PM
Chronography of facts

EB was current from AUGUST 1999 until April 2000.

This warning was issued in the March 2000 VB:
VISA AVAILABILITY FOR APRIL(2000)

“Demand for immigrant visa numbers by INS for AOS cases in all categories, continues to be steady but has not reached the level requiring action at this time. It is anticipated that INS demand for numbers will require the establishment of visa cut-off dates for April in some or all of the CHINA-mainland born and INDIA Employment categories”.

In May 2000. EB2 was retrogressed to 01JUL97 for China and 01APR99 for India

In December 2000 VB the big announcement came:
Greater availability of EB immigrant visas: On October 17th, the President signed P.L. 106-313. Title I of this law is known as the "American Competitiveness in the Twenty-first Century Act of 2000" and contains amendments to the INA regarding EB immigrant visas.
In fiscal years 1999 and 2000, due in part to the per-country limits, the annual limit for EB immigrant visas was not reached. P.L. 106-313 makes the following changes in an attempt to rectify the situation with regard to per-country limits:
Section 106 recaptures those EB visa numbers that were available but not used in fiscal years 1999 and 2000, creating a "pool" of approximately 130,000 numbers. These numbers could be made available to applicants in the EB1, EB2 and EB3 preference categories beginning in fiscal year 2001.
Section 104 removes the per-country limit in instances where the overall applicant demand for EB visas is less than the numbers available without regard to those limits. This determination will be made quarterly, based on a comparison of the overall demand versus the available numbers. If the total number of available EB visas is greater than the number of qualified applicants who may otherwise be issued such visas (during the same period), the per-country limitations on EB visas will be lifted for the remainder of that quarter.
In May 2001 EB2 became current again for both India and China.

July 2001 VB:
EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCE CATEGORIES:
All categories have become "Current" for July, and are expected to remain so for the remainder of FY-2001. The cut-off date movement in all oversubscribed categories has been extremely rapid during the past year. This is because the FY-2001 limit is approximately 50,000 higher than normal, and legislative changes removed the per-country limitation if there are otherwise unused EB numbers available.
All categories are expected to remain "Current" for the foreseeable future.

January 2005 VB
OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF EB3 FOR CHINA, INDIA, AND THE PHILPPINES

June 2005 VB
EMPLOYMENT VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE REMAINDER OF FY-2005
During the past month there has been a significant increase in the amount of numbers being used by CIS offices for AOS applicants. This level of demand has significantly depleted the supply of EB numbers available under the annual limit. Recent discussions with CIS have made it clear that their backlog reduction efforts will sustain or increase the current level of demand. Therefore, continued visa availability in the EB categories cannot be guaranteed during the final quarter of FY-2005. If demand continues at the current rate, it will be necessary to oversubscribe many or all of the EB categories on a Worldwide basis. Such oversubscription could result in the establishment of cut-off dates, retrogression of already established dates, or some categories becoming “unavailable”.
July 2005 VB
EMPLOYMENT VISA AVAILABILITY FOR JULY AND THE REMAINDER OF FY-2005
EB3 and Third Other Worker categories have reached their annual limits and no further FY-2005 allocations are possible for the period July through September.

September 2005 VB
EMPLOYMENT VISA AVAILABILITY DURING FY-2006
The backlog reduction efforts of both CIS, and the DOL continue to result in very heavy demand for EB numbers. It is anticipated that the amount of such cases will be sufficient to use all available numbers in many categories. As a result cut-off dates in the EB3 category will apply to the China, India, and Philippines chargeabilities beginning in October, and it is possible that Mexico may be added to this list. In addition, it is anticipated that heavy demand will require the establishment of a EB3 cut-off date on a Worldwide basis by December.
The amount of Employment demand for applicants from China and India is also likely to result in the oversubcription of the EB1 and B2 categories for those chargeability areas. The establishment of such cut-off dates is expected to occur no later than December.
The level of demand in the Employment categories is expected to be far in excess of the annual limits, and once established, cut-off date movements are likely to be slow.

October 2005 VB:
EMPLOYMENT PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILTIY
Item D in the September VB announcing the September cut-off dates provided information regarding the prospects of visa availability during the early months of FY-2006. Many categories have become oversubscribed for October, and cut-off dates established due to continued heavy demand for numbers by CIS for adjustment of status cases. Forward movement of the cut-off dates in these categories is likely to be limited.

And IV was born.

Have a nice weekend.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

excellent, excellent post. all facts, no conjecture.

gc_chahiye
10-12-2007, 05:30 PM
gc chahiye.. both polls were excellent.. can you redo them and see if we can get a larger sample size?


I wonder how many of the PD earlier than 2003, I-485 filed and 2004 PD, I-485 filed and 2005 PD, I-485 filed must have gotten gcs in the july fiasco.

yup, will set one up soon, hopefully many of those waiting for GCs have been 'flushed out' of the pipeline in the rush to use visas.

Its nice to do a poll when there is something going on in the immigration area (CIR discussion in senate, a VB screwup etc); thats when traffic to IV is high and we'll get a decent sample size. Hopefully the House will introduce some legislation soon... come on lawmakers, I am waiting with my poll here, do something! :p

BharatPremi
10-12-2007, 05:51 PM
BharatPremi Please tell me I am wrong! i collected some data... and just by looking at it... it seems like EB3 will move very very slowly not as per your prediction! I m not a stats guru perhaps you or anyone who is a stats guru can shed some light here!

What is your EB3-India PD (I-485 either pending, or not yet filed)
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=6203

Total Applicants (that voted) = 206
_______________
% distribution
_______________
43.21% 2001/2002/2003
25.25% 2004
16.51% 2005
13.59% 2006
1.46% 2007
_______________

Total Visa available / country = 140000/7% = 9800 in a year
Keep aside 10% for other categories, so 90% available for EB2 and EB3
9800 - 980 = 8820 total available for India EB2/EB3
50-50 between eb2 eb3 (assumption - probably a bad assumption)
4410/year available for EB3?

(This is where it really gets tricky!)
ASSUMPTION -
Approximate Indian EB3 Applications
Total Indian applicants / 2 (50-50 between eb2 and eb3)
Total 200k (low estimate) so EB3 100k approx
+ 100k Dependants = 200k Total EB3

Year 2001/2002/2003 = 43.21% = 46286

Number of years to clear off Backlog (2003 and prior) = 46286/4410 = 10 1/2 years

Up until 1/5/2007 PD was stable at around 5/8/2001

I think EB3 movement will be very slow based on above calculations

EDIT: Even if Unused Visas get funneled down to EB3 India > cut the time in 1/2 still looks like 4-5 years to clear EB3 < 2003

Does this sound right?

__________________________________________________ ______
VB History (Since Retrogression)
Year - Priority Date
1/12/2004 - C
1/1/2005 - 1/1/2002
1/2/2005 - 1/1/2002
1/3/2005 - 3/1/2002
1/4/2005 - 4/1/2002
1/5/2005 - 6/1/2002
1/6/2005 - 6/1/2002
1/7/2005 - U
1/8/2005 - U
1/9/2005 - U
1/10/2005 - 1/1/1998
1/11/2005 - 1/1/1998
1/12/2005 - 1/1/1999
1/1/2006 - 6/1/1999
1/2/2006 - 1/1/2000
1/3/2006 - 1/1/2001
1/4/2006 - 2/1/2001
1/5/2006 - 3/1/2001
1/6/2006 - 4/8/2001
1/7/2006 - 4/15/2001
1/8/2006 - 4/1/2001
1/9/2006 - 4/15/2001
1/10/2006 - 4/22/2001
1/11/2006 - 4/22/2001
1/12/2006 - 4/22/2001
1/1/2007 - 5/8/2001
1/2/2007 - 5/8/2001
1/3/2007 - 5/8/2001
1/4/2007 - 5/8/2001
1/5/2007 - 5/8/2001
1/6/2007 - 6/1/2003
1/7/2007 - C
1/8/2007 - U
1/9/2007 - U
1/10/2007 - 4/22/2001
1/11/2007 - 4/22/2001
___________________________

The fact is that most of Pre 2004 EB2 lot is already out of the system. Those who are still in are sufferer of namecheck and BECs.There is no perfect mechanism to determine the ratio but I would guess 80% are out from that group. Second factor what we need to look is Most of EB3 Mid 2002 to Mid 2005 are still in the system. Third factor what we need to understand is that EB3 filing is always more than double of EB2. Fourth fact is that USCIS has to see "FIFO" is followed or not. So end effect would be we will see EB3 India progressing from this December till April 2008 bulletins reasonably. EB2 will be put on hold . End result in summary would be both EB2 and Eb3 will be brought to Middle of 2005 by next June bulletin. Once that happens Eb2-I will moving faster with comparision to EB3-I.

sroyc
10-12-2007, 07:23 PM
The FIFO policy applies (i know, i know, there are lots of exceptions) to applications in a particular category. In fact, for those who have PDs before the current cutoff, there is no FIFO. I know that you have been harping on this for a long time that eventually EB2 will be held back in favor of EB3, but there is no logical basis for this argument. Why isn't EB1 for the retrogressed countries backlogged? With your logic, there should be a time when EB1 is held back for EB2 and EB3 to catch up.

The fact is that most of Pre 2004 EB2 lot is already out of the system. Those who are still in are sufferer of namecheck and BECs.There is no perfect mechanism to determine the ratio but I would guess 80% are out from that group. Second factor what we need to look is Most of EB3 Mid 2002 to Mid 2005 are still in the system. Third factor what we need to understand is that EB3 filing is always more than double of EB2. Fourth fact is that USCIS has to see "FIFO" is followed or not. So end effect would be we will see EB3 India progressing from this December till April 2008 bulletins reasonably. EB2 will be put on hold . End result in summary would be both EB2 and Eb3 will be brought to Middle of 2005 by next June bulletin. Once that happens Eb2-I will moving faster with comparision to EB3-I.

BharatPremi
10-12-2007, 08:10 PM
The FIFO policy applies (i know, i know, there are lots of exceptions) to applications in a particular category. In fact, for those who have PDs before the current cutoff, there is no FIFO. I know that you have been harping on this for a long time that eventually EB2 will be held back in favor of EB3, but there is no logical basis for this argument. Why isn't EB1 for the retrogressed countries backlogged? With your logic, there should be a time when EB1 is held back for EB2 and EB3 to catch up.

First of all you did not have to bring EB1 in the discussion. I do not understand where did you feel challenged so have to come up with biting tone. FIFO is category base... You are bringing nothing new. Kid waiting in India for his first flight to USA know that. You have to have a eye to see the big picture. If you analyze the whole design and take the perspective country based... You will find that retrogression policy in addition to FIFO's ultimate effect is - for an example-EB2-India: 2006 PD would not be able to get his GC before EB3-2002. But somebody must not be mentally challenged to derive that. It is not long wait. From next bulletin you will start seeing pattern.

gc_bulgaria
10-12-2007, 08:28 PM
Today my attorney said that if it hasnt moved for two visa bulletins in the fiscal year then he is almost sure (using 27 year experience in immigration) that it will not move much this year.
:-(

gc_chahiye
10-12-2007, 08:33 PM
Today my attorney said that if it hasnt moved for two visa bulletins in the fiscal year then he is almost sure (using 27 year experience in immigration) that it will not move much this year.
:-(

dont worry the dates will move. Ask your attorney if he is willing to take a bet on that.
this year is "special". The July VB filings, the rush of approvals in teh last 2-3 months... lots of things have happened this year that have never happened in the past.

sroyc
10-12-2007, 08:38 PM
It looks like you are aware of some USCIS internal policy that is not known to all. I used to think that the policy was based on the per country quota for each category. Maybe you can enlighten us all. What is the acceptable gap in PDs between EB2 and EB3 for AOS approvals? In your example it seems to be less than 4 years. Can someone with a PD of 2005 (EB2) get approved before another person with a PD of 2001 (EB3). Since you seem to understand the policy so well, could you please explain it in detail with specifics?

First of all you did not have to bring EB1 in the discussion. I do not understand where did you feel challenged so have to come up with biting tone. FIFO is category base... You are bringing nothing new. Kid waiting in India for his first flight to USA know that. You have to have a eye to see the big picture. If you analyze the whole design and take the perspective country based... You will find that retrogression policy in addition to FIFO's ultimate effect is - for an example-EB2-India: 2006 PD would not be able to get his GC before EB3-2002. But somebody must not be mentally challenged to derive that. It is not long wait. From next bulletin you will start seeing pattern.

Canadian_Dream
10-12-2007, 09:04 PM
The fact is that most of Pre 2004 EB2 lot is already out of the system. Those who are still in are sufferer of namecheck and BECs.

That's simply incorrect. Since EB-2 India was held up at Jan 2003 from Oct 2005 to June 2007, most EB-2 filers from 2003 and 2004 are still very much out there and waiting. You have to remember that most 2003/04 EB-2 filers from California/NY/NJ/WA were rotting in BEC. High demand states have not approved any labors with 2003-2004 PD's before 2005 when BEC started to approve them. But this was too late as dates were already retrogressed, thus for almost 2 years there was build up for 2003/04 EB-2 cases. I know a lot of them personally.

The only exception to this might be: There were very few cases filed in EB-2 during 2003 and 2004, but that is hard to believe.

BharatPremi
10-12-2007, 09:21 PM
That's simply incorrect. Since EB-2 India was held up at Jan 2003 from Oct 2005 to June 2007, most EB-2 filers from 2003 and 2004 are still very much out there and waiting. You have to remember that most 2003/04 EB-2 filers from California/NY/NJ/WA were rotting in BEC. High demand states have not approved any labors with 2003-2004 PD's before 2005 when BEC started to approve them. But this was too late as dates were already retrogressed, thus for almost 2 years there was build up for 2003/04 EB-2 cases. I know a lot of them personally.

The only exception to this might be: There were very few cases filed in EB-2 during 2003 and 2004, but that is hard to believe.

This was my complete quot for this particular part of the whole statement.

"The fact is that most of Pre 2004 EB2 lot is already out of the system. Those who are still in are sufferer of namecheck and BECs.There is no perfect mechanism to determine the ratio but I would guess 80% are out from that group." but you somehow conviniently picked up first sentence only.

So I have already mentioned about that. See the problem is that in this foolish system there is no perfect barometer we do have so we can state this will SURELY be a pattern... Yes many are still rotting in not only name check but even in BECs as of today. But most Pre 2004 EB2 lot is out. Now I can not tag a number for "Most"... I think best startegy is to wait for future bulletins. I have already stated my belief and that is with confidence. Does that mean I am trying to say "This will be the only pattern". In case of USCIS nobody can tell that.

sroyc
10-13-2007, 05:48 AM
That was informative.
The wild cards are still the LC substitutions and EB2 to EB3 conversions. Even if a lot of people had to go back to India, is there any estimate on how many of these LC approvals were later sold by the bodyshoppers? Depending on the extent of LC substitution frauds (from what I hear it was rampant) all the calculations and estimates could get completely thrown off. I agree that we should wait for another 2-3 months for the dust to settle. Even the USCIS/DOS should have a good idea of how many cases there are and that will help them control the flow better and that should reflect in the visa bulletins.

Perfect linear logic. Infact if you think linearly this should have been the case.But, in my opinion you have missed 2 important events. First, when BECs were created, before moving cases to BECs, INS somehow took a stand of rapid labor approval for those who already cleared "State" process and were waiting in Regional. Many of cases were approved during those 3 to 4 months and most of them were of EB2 categories. Those who were stuck in "State" , most were transferred to BECs directly. Second thing happened was many EB2 people also changed jobs as economy started to improve from 2005 and many left for India. Now one can argue, that happened with EB3 as well. I tell you one thing. My file was Eb3 NON-RIR...Stuck in PBEC. I decided to convert into RIR. My final conversion package sent to PBEC, around second week of January 2007. At that moment there were almost 350000 cased were of NON-RIR and 70000 cases were of RIR. EB2 load was of around 30 % only of these total cases. See here the difference lies in volume. EB3 load is considerably high. One more thing to remember is Most of those EB2 filings were of 2002 or pre 2002. In year 2003, generally most filing were done in EB3 NON-RIR only as RIR denial ratio was high and that with particular EB2 category. And adding all this makes my assumption base that 80% of pre 2004 EB2 lot is already out of this black hole. Let's watch next bulletins. It will be clear within 2 to 3 months how USCIS is taking turns.

sanjeev_2004
10-13-2007, 11:45 AM
My labor process started in June 2003 and filed on Dec. 2003; Yew York EB2 -INDIA. It was cleared from BEC 2006 October. Like me many from NY/NJ/CA stuck in BEC, so we are able to apply I-485 in june 2007. I think EB2 2001-2004 April from NOv. VB is right. These people will take 2008 quota. So people after 2004 period need to wait for 2009 quota.

When Jun-July 2004 PD will be current? Any guess?

abracadabra102
10-13-2007, 12:50 PM
When Jun-July 2004 PD will be current? Any guess?
No one knows dick about PD movement. EB3 filers think that somehow EB2 PD gets stuck or even retrogress and EB3 PDs race forward to 2003/2004, through some delusional logic. Those who filed under EB2 think, EB2 PD moves to 2005/2006. These predictions are mostly prejudicial. USCIS may have some idea after entering all June/July/Aug applications, that is if they can find someone who can add :D.

My two cents...

BharatPremi
10-13-2007, 01:09 PM
That was informative.
The wild cards are still the LC substitutions and EB2 to EB3 conversions. Even if a lot of people had to go back to India, is there any estimate on how many of these LC approvals were later sold by the bodyshoppers? Depending on the extent of LC substitution frauds (from what I hear it was rampant) all the calculations and estimates could get completely thrown off. I agree that we should wait for another 2-3 months for the dust to settle. Even the USCIS/DOS should have a good idea of how many cases there are and that will help them control the flow better and that should reflect in the visa bulletins.

Oh Ya, in 2003-4, tons of "Virual Shops" were doing good business and that was covering coast to coast. And that's the problem, you can't tag the numbers to the effect of misdeeds, events bad or good. There was lot of talk aboout Indians going back but you would not find a single legitimate statistical article. but that does not mean we should not count the effect of that event. This mess is so severe, we just can not reasonabley predict based on available statistical data because so many events happened for which nobody has proper statistical data and so you can't tag its counter effects. I give you just recent example of this forum. Here one member Yadabada was just debating based on very logical set and he took the pain to go through all past damn bulletins showing me 2003 bulletins. I draw his attention that "India" was completing missing from the bulletins as "OverSubscribed" categories for most of the year 2003. Why? Now when you start analyzing this in 2007 and if you miss this important observation you start making your prediction base in diverted direction. Even in year 2003 nobody gave it a importance (AILA or whatever). USCIS has as apolicy put India,China,Mexico and Phillipines as "Oversubscribed" categories. Now if you think logically either particular country should have "Current" or some retrogressed date. But how do you interpret a bulletin if USCIS (Allaudin's Chirag) just make one country completely disappeared from the bulletin. Lateral interpretation could be "That country is no more "Oversubscribed" so why the hell it should not be "Current" if not "oversubscribed". USCIS plays this trick time to time. If you see bulletins from 1995, some time you will find China disappeared soem time India disappeared.

The reality is that people started taking bulletins seriously from 2005 only. till 2004 most of us were not giving a damn to those and that is why 2001-2004 lot is paying the price as well.If the cry what we have seen during July 2007, might have been seen during 2003, I guess, probably things may have been little better.

BharatPremi
10-13-2007, 01:22 PM
No one knows dick about PD movement. EB3 filers think that somehow EB2 PD gets stuck or even retrogress and EB3 PDs race forward to 2003/2004, through some delusional logic. Those who filed under EB2 think, EB2 PD moves to 2005/2006. These predictions are mostly prejudicial. USCIS may have some idea after entering all June/July/Aug applications, that is if they can find someone who can add :D.

My two cents...

And what about me? I have two files. One in EB3 -2003 and One in EB2 -2006 and both are live. :)

lost_in_migration
10-13-2007, 10:55 PM
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=ace7ec20cfbd4110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=54519c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD

Sunx_2004
10-14-2007, 12:38 AM
There are lot of guys who filed in July still waiting for receipts..

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=ace7ec20cfbd4110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=54519c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD

lost_in_migration
10-14-2007, 01:26 AM
This may not make sense in either direction. July filers are still waiting whereas my check to USCIS got encashed and it seems my ND wud be Oct 8th. My 485 reached TSC on 14th Aug but as per the Receipting Update TSC is still processing applications with RD of 13th Aug !!

There are lot of guys who filed in July still waiting for receipts..

GC08
10-14-2007, 08:55 AM
There are a lot of 2003 and 2004 filers still waiting. EB3 should be much more than EB2 because during this period, there was no visa retrogression and most people did not care about the category. Even some of those EB3's converted to EB2's, it did not really reduce the visa # demand or made the EB3 line shorter thanks to the infamous Labor Substitution. Needless to say the existing name check backlogs as well as the filing rush right before PERM. My guess is it will take at least a year for EB3 to move beyond 2004.

Imm_Exploited
10-14-2007, 04:59 PM
Retrogression in Various Steps of the GC process

While January 2005 was the first time since July 2001 there was retrogression for the EB-3 category (01/01/02 for both China and India), the US continues to maintain protectionism through their immigration system.

Retrogression in Labor Certification: Between 2002 and 2005, there was severe retrogression as far as labor certifications were concerned. Then came the PERM in March 2005 and for a couple of years, they boasted labor certification with 3 to 6 months time. Of late I think it is taking more than 6 months for LC approvals even through PERM.

Retrogression in I-140 Approvals: I do not remember when the USCIS suspended the premium processing for I-140 but even before they did that, they managed protectionism by delaying the approval of I-140. As per some one's posting, it is now taking 14 months for an I-140 approval.

Retrogression of I-485 Approvals: Post July 2007 VB, even a 1st year engineering student from India, studying the American immigration system, can tell you it could take years (not the current 6-9 months processing time) for approval of I-485s. The delay in approving an I-485 petition is not subject to the the July 2007 Visa Bulletin alone, it cannot also escape 'protectionism-tainted' FBI name check delay.

I may sound like quite a pessimist, but add to all this the possible denials for PLC (permanent labor certification), I-140, EAD, AP & I-485s.

My $0.02 - IE


bharat premi...please look at this link...it has all the bulletins from 2002. please point me to single instance where the the bulletin was retrogressed even once in 2002-2003

http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_1770.html

This is the link from 95-2001

http://dosfan.lib.uic.edu/ERC/visa_bulletin/


there was retrogression in 99, but after the recapture of numbers under ac21, there was no retrogression from july 2001 till 2005

BharatPremi
10-14-2007, 07:39 PM
Retrogression in Various Steps of the GC process

While January 2005 was the first time since July 2001 there was retrogression for the EB-3 category (01/01/02 for both China and India), the US continues to maintain protectionism through their immigration system.

Retrogression in Labor Certification: Between 2002 and 2005, there was severe retrogression as far as labor certifications were concerned. Then came the PERM in March 2005 and for a couple of years, they boasted labor certification with 3 to 6 months time. Of late I think it is taking more than 6 months for LC approvals even through PERM.

Retrogression in I-140 Approvals: I do not remember when the USCIS suspended the premium processing for I-140 but even before they did that, they managed protectionism by delaying the approval of I-140. As per some one's posting, it is now taking 14 months for an I-140 approval.

Retrogression of I-485 Approvals: Post July 2007 VB, even a 1st year engineering student from India, studying the American immigration system, can tell you it could take years (not the current 6-9 months processing time) for approval of I-485s. The delay in approving an I-485 petition is not subject to the the July 2007 Visa Bulletin alone, it cannot also escape 'protectionism-tainted' FBI name check delay.

I may sound like quite a pessimist, but add to all this the possible denials for PLC (permanent labor certification), I-140, EAD, AP & I-485s.

My $0.02 - IE

Very Good Presentation.

mallu
10-14-2007, 08:05 PM
[U].... The delay in approving an I-485 petition is not subject to the the July 2007 Visa Bulletin alone, it cannot also escape '[B]protectionism-tainted' FBI name check delay.

.....

Most of the male applicants from India gets profiled by FBI. namecheck hit may be partly bull ....

BharatPremi
10-14-2007, 11:55 PM
Has somebody ever wondered if EB limit is 140000 why the heck USCIS is allowed to accept millions of applications at the first place?

Can we sue USCIS for that?

gc_chahiye
10-15-2007, 12:03 AM
Has somebody ever wondered if EB limit is 140000 why the heck USCIS is allowed to accept millions of applications at the first place?

Can we sue USCIS for that?

load a big gun, aim at foot, fire.

P.S: Looks like you dont like EAD, AP, AC21 and all these acronyms and would love to have USCIS return 660K 485 applications back to the July 2nd filers.

willwin
10-15-2007, 10:35 AM
My guess is it will take at least a year for EB3 to move beyond 2004.

If you are saying that EB3 would move from 2001 to 2004 this year, then that is what BharatPremi and I were saying. We should be OK with 3 years movement for EB3.

And, guys don't jump on me, if we accept that 3-4 years for GC is acceptable (though I agree that GC in 6 months would be the vision, dream...), then guys who have filed in 2004 should be patient till 2008 and guys who filed in 2006 should wait till 2010.

The only guys who should worry is those with PDs 2001 and 2002. Again, most of them got cleared in Jun, July this year except those who are stuck in name check and LC in BEC.

arshiya
10-15-2007, 10:42 AM
There will be so many stuck in namecheck....nobody can be sure that their fortunes will follow even a single one of these predictions...since anyone can land in the blackhole...I WISH WISH WISH we cld do something abt the name check mess!!

claudia255
10-15-2007, 11:20 AM
Gonna be a long long long wait for people with PDs of 2007 (EB3) who got their labor certified after July.

BharatPremi
10-15-2007, 01:01 PM
load a big gun, aim at foot, fire.
:)

BharatPremi
10-15-2007, 01:24 PM
Gonna be a long long long wait for people with PDs of 2007 (EB3) who got their labor certified after July.


Yep. It would be good for EB3/2 - India-PD 2007 filer considering canadian immigration simultaneously...ofcourse do not rush now for filing Canadian PR - As Canada generally gives you PR witin 2 years and by that time 2007 filers may not have passed FBI check for their 485 here..If the way things are going I see at least 5 years wait for 2007 (India)filers.

willwin
10-15-2007, 01:43 PM
Yep. It would be good for EB3/2 - India-PD 2007 filer considering canadian immigration simultaneously...ofcourse do not rush now for filing Canadian PR - As Canada generally gives you PR witin 2 years and by that time 2007 filers may not have passed FBI check for their 485 here..If the way things are going I see at least 5 years wait for 2007 (India)filers.

BharatPremi,

Can you guesstimate how long it would take for EB3/India, Mar 2005 (Pre-PERM), Consular Processing to get GC?

Appreciate your time.

prolegalimmi
10-15-2007, 02:11 PM
right. in the AILA call also they cautioned that retrogression will become worse (dates moving back!) once USCIS starts processing all those July/August filers...

NOT TRUE.

It depends on how many applications were filed that had priority dates before the Retrogressed Date (22 APR 01, 01 AUG 02, Etc).
If there were no big volume of applications before this date, then the USCIS is out of work as it relates to the I-485 applications processing. Thats when they move the date forward to allow more applications with later priority dates come to the processing desk.

My two cents.

prolegalimmi
10-15-2007, 02:13 PM
There will be so many stuck in namecheck....nobody can be sure that their fortunes will follow even a single one of these predictions...since anyone can land in the blackhole...I WISH WISH WISH we cld do something abt the name check mess!!


From what I hear, Name check is a random sample check, still unfortunate for those who have to go through it, but not all applicants will go through the name check.

willwin
10-15-2007, 02:13 PM
NOT TRUE.

It depends on how many applications were filed that had priority dates before the Retrogressed Date (22 APR 01, 01 AUG 02, Etc).
If there were no big volume of applications before this date, then the USCIS is out of work as it relates to the I-485 applications processing. Thats when they move the date forward to allow more applications with later priority dates come to the processing desk.

My two cents.

I agree with Prolegalimmi. And, thats exactly what I was telling all along. The dates have to move.

anilsal
10-15-2007, 02:16 PM
when USCIS processing is involved.

If we get some legislation to pass that will provide relief to retrogression, then things will be predictable to a large extent.

BharatPremi
10-15-2007, 03:33 PM
BharatPremi,

Can you guesstimate how long it would take for EB3/India, Mar 2005 (Pre-PERM), Consular Processing to get GC?

Appreciate your time.


Short answer is "NO".Assuming direct filing in consular Process, in general it takes less time (for most clear cases around 6 months to 9 months) with comparison to AOS. But that pattern was of old times. Consular processing also has to follow Visa Bulletin. Second factor also need to be considered is what ratio is for consular processing. If 10 % of total EB3 + 2 cases might have gone to consular processing then again those US visa offcies will also be overwhelmed. Seeing July-August load ,this time it is very hard to predict consular processing. But just sake for the argument if my prediction for future visa bulletin will become correct then MOST EB3 - 2003/4-consular processing filers will definately get their GC before December 2008. That surely can not be predicted for AOS seeing namecheck etc.

Note: After some time (2008 end) you will also see fence jumpers (AOS to
consular)as people will hear fast "initial" approvals from consular
processing.

willwin
10-15-2007, 04:01 PM
Short answer is "NO".Assuming direct filing in consular Process, in general it takes less time (for most clear cases around 6 months to 9 months) with comparison to AOS. But that pattern was of old times. Consular processing also has to follow Visa Bulletin. Second factor also need to be considered is what ratio is for consular processing. If 10 % of total EB3 + 2 cases might have gone to consular processing then again those US visa offcies will also be overwhelmed. Seeing July-August load ,this time it is very hard to predict consular processing. But just sake for the argument if my prediction for future visa bulletin will become correct then MOST EB3 - 2003/4-consular processing filers will definately get their GC before December 2008. That surely can not be predicted for AOS seeing namecheck etc.

Note: After some time (2008 end) you will also see fence jumpers (AOS to
consular)as people will hear fast "initial" approvals from consular
processing.

Thanks for your prompt reply! I think CP filers would be around 5%. Atleast in my organization, in July, 70 people filed 485 and I am the only CP applicant!

Maverick1
10-15-2007, 04:25 PM
Has somebody ever wondered if EB limit is 140000 why the heck USCIS is allowed to accept millions of applications at the first place?

Can we sue USCIS for that?


load a big gun, aim at foot, fire.

P.S: Looks like you dont like EAD, AP, AC21 and all these acronyms and would love to have USCIS return 660K 485 applications back to the July 2nd filers.

:):)

BharatPremi
10-15-2007, 04:36 PM
Thanks for your prompt reply! I think CP filers would be around 5%. Atleast in my organization, in July, 70 people filed 485 and I am the only CP applicant!

So you will be on H1 till conclusion. Best Luck.

willwin
10-15-2007, 05:23 PM
So you will be on H1 till conclusion. Best Luck.


Yes, I dont really see that as a problem right away (though I am aware of the risks!). I have completed only 4 years of my H1B and with approved I140, I should be able to extend another 3 years, (if required).

BharatPremi, do you know if one can have both 485 and CP processes simultaneously?

I am just wondering if I could file 485 (if my PD becomes current and stays current only for a short period as it happened in July) and have my CP case also alive.

My CP case is already in Consulate (after processing Form 230) which means I am just awaiting an interview. 485 is to safeguard my GC against any unforeseen odds and risks. Is that possible?

Or, can I file another LC (under EB2) and once I140 is approved (using prior PD), can I interfile (in CP)?

I just wanted to have the safety net that 485 provides or move to EB2 so that interview can be expected in the next year or so -if my new I140 is approved by then!

Any recommendations and is this technically possible?

gc_chahiye
10-15-2007, 05:25 PM
Their silence also indicates that they may move date substantially (as they dont lose anything by moving forward as all 485 are filed).

its not that simple (otherwise they can make everything C and be done with it). The PD is defined as the last application they could not approve because there is no visa number to assign to that applicant.

THere was a nice description of teh whole process in some earlier thread: they get visa numbers in chunks from DOS. They ask for them as they need them, and there is also some per-month, per-quarter rationing that goes on. Based on that they pick up and approve applications and keep using up visa numbers. They are supposed to pick up applications in order of PD, but do so in a mix of PD/RD. When they get to an applicant who is otherwise approved but they are out of visa numbers for this month, they pick the following 1st, 8th, 15th or 22nd as the cutoff date.

Dates are most likely not moving because:
- they have reassigned everyone to do receipting (as they mentioned in their FAQ)
- some dates in current VB (esp for EB3) have been pushed so far back, that they probably dont have readily approvable applications (preadjudicated)
- they are waiting for a complete tally of July VB filings to get an idea of how to move the dates

BharatPremi
10-15-2007, 06:25 PM
BharatPremi, do you know if one can have both 485 and CP processes simultaneously?

SIMULTANEOUSLY you can't have both. Either AOS or CP. One can covert one from another but it introduces enormous delay. AOS-to-CP atleast 1 year more delay and for CP-to-AOS at least 3 to 6 months delay.

GC08
10-15-2007, 07:16 PM
If you are saying that EB3 would move from 2001 to 2004 this year, then that is what BharatPremi and I were saying. We should be OK with 3 years movement for EB3.

And, guys don't jump on me, if we accept that 3-4 years for GC is acceptable (though I agree that GC in 6 months would be the vision, dream...), then guys who have filed in 2004 should be patient till 2008 and guys who filed in 2006 should wait till 2010.

The only guys who should worry is those with PDs 2001 and 2002. Again, most of them got cleared in Jun, July this year except those who are stuck in name check and LC in BEC.

Well, I was saying "at least". So if goes for 2 years to clear pre-PERM backlogs, I would not be surprised. ;)

willwin
10-15-2007, 08:09 PM
SIMULTANEOUSLY you can't have both. Either AOS or CP. Once can covert one from another but it introduces enormous delay. AOS-to-CP atleast 1 year more delay and for CP-to-AOS at least 3 to 6 months delay.

Thanks for the update! How about having two cases; a second LC under EB2. In that case can both prevail together (and EB2 and EB3)?

somegchuh
10-15-2007, 08:29 PM
BharatPremi,

Can you shed some more light on consular processing? I have 140 cleared and am already in AOS and possibly in NC. Is it possible to "jump fence" now or is it too late?

Short answer is "NO".Assuming direct filing in consular Process, in general it takes less time (for most clear cases around 6 months to 9 months) with comparison to AOS. But that pattern was of old times. Consular processing also has to follow Visa Bulletin. Second factor also need to be considered is what ratio is for consular processing. If 10 % of total EB3 + 2 cases might have gone to consular processing then again those US visa offcies will also be overwhelmed. Seeing July-August load ,this time it is very hard to predict consular processing. But just sake for the argument if my prediction for future visa bulletin will become correct then MOST EB3 - 2003/4-consular processing filers will definately get their GC before December 2008. That surely can not be predicted for AOS seeing namecheck etc.

Note: After some time (2008 end) you will also see fence jumpers (AOS to
consular)as people will hear fast "initial" approvals from consular
processing.

BharatPremi
10-15-2007, 09:32 PM
Thanks for the update! How about having two cases; a second LC under EB2. In that case can both prevail together (and EB2 and EB3)?

MANY attorneys STRONGLY ADVISE not to file MULTIPLE 485/CP simultaneously.

BharatPremi
10-15-2007, 09:35 PM
BharatPremi,

Can you shed some more light on consular processing? I have 140 cleared and am already in AOS and possibly in NC. Is it possible to "jump fence" now or is it too late?

http://www.hooyou.com/consularprocess/index.html

willwin
10-18-2007, 06:00 PM
Reading from this thread and few other, it is confirmed that in most cases, even if PD is current for a 485 filer, USCIS may not adjudicate those cases unless the processing time is reached. (There are few lucky applicants with PD 2005 and filed 485 after July 2nd and have already received their GC - but that is very few).

And most centers, they are processing Dec 2006 485 applications - a backlog of 10 months.

So, assuming that it may take same 10 months to process 485 filed in July - that is May 2008!!

With this, what are the chances of DOS making PD current for all EB categories again next June? They will do this to use all the VISA numbers for FY2008.

Or, if they don't want to repeat the confusions that happened in July 2007, to what dates will the PDs move (in June/July 2008)? Atleast to 2006?

pa_arora
10-19-2007, 08:04 PM
Reading from this thread and few other, it is confirmed that in most cases, even if PD is current for a 485 filer, USCIS may not adjudicate those cases unless the processing time is reached. (There are few lucky applicants with PD 2005 and filed 485 after July 2nd and have already received their GC - but that is very few).

And most centers, they are processing Dec 2006 485 applications - a backlog of 10 months.

So, assuming that it may take same 10 months to process 485 filed in July - that is May 2008!!

With this, what are the chances of DOS making PD current for all EB categories again next June? They will do this to use all the VISA numbers for FY2008.

Or, if they don't want to repeat the confusions that happened in July 2007, to what dates will the PDs move (in June/July 2008)? Atleast to 2006?
Thye just see the PD and don't wait for the processing time. Processing time is SLA(Service Level Agreement), either they specify the time frame in which they pocess the case or if they are running beyond their SLA they specify the oldest date of the application in the system.

my2cents
10-21-2007, 03:41 PM
Base Assumptions:
EB2 ratio (Pre PERM) 30% Before PERM came, PD was almost current and nobody cared for EB3 or EB2
EB3 ratio (Pre PERM) 70%
EB2 ratio (Post PERM) 50% After PERM, retrogression, people jumped on take advantage on EB2
EB3 ratio (Post PERM) 50%

Dependant 2.1
Indian National Ratio 60%

Total Labor Calculations

Approval Rate Total Comments Source
Backlog 363000 60% 217800 Before Mar 2005 http://www.murthy.com/news/n_relper.html
PERM 171000 75% 128250 Mar 2005- Mar 07 http://www.immigration.com/newsletter1/dolstatperm.pdf


Total Labor (Approved) 217800 Pre PERM only
Indian National 130680
Total EB3 91476
Total Eb2 39204

Yearly allocation in % EB3 (total 485 applications) EB2 (total 485 Appl.) Total 485 Pending for Indian National
2001 10 19210 8233 27443
2002 20 38420 16466 54886
2003 30 57630 24699 82328
2004 35 67235 28815 96050
2005 (Before march) 5 9605 4116 13721
Mar 2005- Mar 2007 100% 80798 80798 161595
Total EB pending for Indian 436023

coolvigo
10-21-2007, 05:11 PM
my lawyer told me that dates will definitely move ahead next month. He was confident about it after talking to his contacts at USCIS i guess.

bsbawa10
10-21-2007, 05:24 PM
USCIS has become good in copy->paste. They made only one error in May/2007. Other than that they are pretty doing a good job. Copy->paste , Copy->paste.

natrajs
10-21-2007, 06:07 PM
USCIS has become good in copy->paste. They made only one error in May/2007. Other than that they are pretty doing a good job. Copy->paste , Copy->paste.

Oh Yeah, They invented Copy & Paste. Folks Please Actively Participate in IV's effort

gumpena
10-21-2007, 06:24 PM
Base Assumptions:
EB2 ratio (Pre PERM) 30% Before PERM came, PD was almost current and nobody cared for EB3 or EB2
EB3 ratio (Pre PERM) 70%
EB2 ratio (Post PERM) 50% After PERM, retrogression, people jumped on take advantage on EB2
EB3 ratio (Post PERM) 50%

Dependant 2.1
Indian National Ratio 60%

Total Labor Calculations

Approval Rate Total Comments Source
Backlog 363000 60% 217800 Before Mar 2005 http://www.murthy.com/news/n_relper.html
PERM 171000 75% 128250 Mar 2005- Mar 07 http://www.immigration.com/newsletter1/dolstatperm.pdf


Total Labor (Approved) 217800 Pre PERM only
Indian National 130680
Total EB3 91476
Total Eb2 39204

Yearly allocation in % EB3 (total 485 applications) EB2 (total 485 Appl.) Total 485 Pending for Indian National
2001 10 19210 8233 27443
2002 20 38420 16466 54886
2003 30 57630 24699 82328
2004 35 67235 28815 96050
2005 (Before march) 5 9605 4116 13721
Mar 2005- Mar 2007 100% 80798 80798 161595
Total EB pending for Indian 436023

Total EB applications filed is only 300K(jul-aug 2007) does not fit in the above logic...

Circus123
10-21-2007, 06:35 PM
Base Assumptions:
EB2 ratio (Pre PERM) 30% Before PERM came, PD was almost current and nobody cared for EB3 or EB2
EB3 ratio (Pre PERM) 70%
EB2 ratio (Post PERM) 50% After PERM, retrogression, people jumped on take advantage on EB2
EB3 ratio (Post PERM) 50%

Dependant 2.1
Indian National Ratio 60%

Total Labor Calculations

Approval Rate Total Comments Source
Backlog 363000 60% 217800 Before Mar 2005 http://www.murthy.com/news/n_relper.html
PERM 171000 75% 128250 Mar 2005- Mar 07 http://www.immigration.com/newsletter1/dolstatperm.pdf


Total Labor (Approved) 217800 Pre PERM only
Indian National 130680
Total EB3 91476
Total Eb2 39204

Yearly allocation in % EB3 (total 485 applications) EB2 (total 485 Appl.) Total 485 Pending for Indian National
2001 10 19210 8233 27443
2002 20 38420 16466 54886
2003 30 57630 24699 82328
2004 35 67235 28815 96050
2005 (Before march) 5 9605 4116 13721
Mar 2005- Mar 2007 100% 80798 80798 161595
Total EB pending for Indian 436023

It seems to me that due to a lot of shuffling around , and people filing multiple EB labor certifications may have some bearing here.
Though it should not be in 5 figure digits , but hey that's what i can come up with right now ...

my2cents
10-21-2007, 06:49 PM
Total EB applications filed is only 300K(jul-aug 2007) does not fit in the above logic...

320K only applies to July VISA bulletin, It doesn't count June which is also significant.

svrk
10-21-2007, 10:32 PM
I filed my I-140 in July 07, I-485 in August with PD of June 07(EB3 India). Perhaps there may be many more like me with very recent PDs. Given that it is going to be a very long wait for getting GC, what should be a good approach for me? Use EAD after I-140 is approved (AC21 would be in place by that time) to make the most of the waiting time or play it extremely safe and stay with the current employer till GC is received? :confused:

gc_chahiye
10-22-2007, 03:55 AM
my lawyer told me that dates will definitely move ahead next month. He was confident about it after talking to his contacts at USCIS i guess.

except that the visa bulletin is published by the department of state, not USCIS...

anyway EB3-India and hopefully EB3-ROW would definately move soon, they seem to have been pushed too far back out...

mhathi
10-22-2007, 10:13 AM
I filed my I-140 in July 07, I-485 in August with PD of June 07(EB3 India). Perhaps there may be many more like me with very recent PDs. Given that it is going to be a very long wait for getting GC, what should be a good approach for me? Use EAD after I-140 is approved (AC21 would be in place by that time) to make the most of the waiting time or play it extremely safe and stay with the current employer till GC is received? :confused:

there is a third option. After 140 is approved, you may change employers (assuming 180 days since 485 filing are up) but still maintain H1 status by doing an H1 transfer. AC21 does not require the use of EAD. It is equally possible to invoke AC21 while still maintaining H1 status. Of course, it may be easier to use EAD for employers that do not want to sponsor H1 since you already have an EAD.

pappu
10-22-2007, 10:45 AM
except that the visa bulletin is published by the department of state, not USCIS...

anyway EB3-India and hopefully EB3-ROW would definately move soon, they seem to have been pushed too far back out...

There are chances of a slowdown in the Dec visa bulletin due to Holiday season and internal audits.

svrk
10-22-2007, 10:47 AM
there is a third option. After 140 is approved, you may change employers (assuming 180 days since 485 filing are up) but still maintain H1 status by doing an H1 transfer. AC21 does not require the use of EAD. It is equally possible to invoke AC21 while still maintaining H1 status. Of course, it may be easier to use EAD for employers that do not want to sponsor H1 since you already have an EAD.
Mhathi,

Thanks a lot for the reply.

The dilemma is whether it is risky to change jobs during the infinite waiting period or it is risky to stick to the same employer and get frozen in time...

mhathi
10-22-2007, 11:18 AM
Mhathi,

Thanks a lot for the reply.

The dilemma is whether it is risky to change jobs during the infinite waiting period or it is risky to stick to the same employer and get frozen in time...

That is an individual decision. You will minimize the risk by maintaining H1 status so you can appeal any untoward decision. Just make sure the new job you take up is "similar" to the current job. Unfortunately, there are no good answers here since AC21 is a (relatively) recent regulation.