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goel_ar
05-11-2010, 04:57 PM
Below is data of PD from last four years for EB2-I - only for Jun, Jul & Aug.
Except July Fiasco , I don't see dates ever moving forward in July VB; but they do move in August VB.
Has anything changed in spillover laws in last 1 year - which will explain this no movement in July but in August?

Jun 06 : 01JAN03 | July 06 : 01JAN03 | August 06 : U ---> No change in July. Aug backward
Jun 07 : 01APR04 | July 07 : C | August 07 : U ---> July Fiasco
Jun 08 : 01APR04 | July 08 : 01APR04 | August 08 : 01JUN06 ---> No change in July. Aug forward
Jun 09 : 01JAN00 | July 09 : 01JAN00 | August 09 : 01OCT03 ---> No change in July. Aug forward
Jun 10 : 01FEB05 | July 10 : ?????? | August 10 : ???? ---> Do your really expect forward movement in July?

andycool
05-11-2010, 05:07 PM
Below is data of PD from last four years for EB2-I - only for Jun, Jul & Aug.
Except July Fiasco , I don't see dates ever moving forward in July VB; but they do move in August VB.
Has anything changed in spillover laws in last 1 year - which will explain this no movement in July but in August?

Jun 06 : 01JAN03 | July 06 : 01JAN03 | August 06 : U ---> No change in July. Aug backward
Jun 07 : 01APR04 | July 07 : C | August 07 : U ---> July Fiasco
Jun 08 : 01APR04 | July 08 : 01APR04 | August 08 : 01JUN06 ---> No change in July. Aug foreward
Jun 09 : 01JAN00 | July 09 : 01JAN00 | August 09 : 01OCT03 ---> No change in July. Aug foreward
Jun 10 : 01FEB05 | July 10 : ?????? | August 10 : ???? ---> Do your really expect forward movement in July?

Hope to see some movement in coming months .....

cbpds
05-11-2010, 05:20 PM
Thanks for lowering my expectations, will revisit bulletins in October possibly.

Below is data of PD from last four years for EB2-I - only for Jun, Jul & Aug.
Except July Fiasco , I don't see dates ever moving forward in July VB; but they do move in August VB.
Has anything changed in spillover laws in last 1 year - which will explain this no movement in July but in August?

Jun 06 : 01JAN03 | July 06 : 01JAN03 | August 06 : U ---> No change in July. Aug backward
Jun 07 : 01APR04 | July 07 : C | August 07 : U ---> July Fiasco
Jun 08 : 01APR04 | July 08 : 01APR04 | August 08 : 01JUN06 ---> No change in July. Aug foreward
Jun 09 : 01JAN00 | July 09 : 01JAN00 | August 09 : 01OCT03 ---> No change in July. Aug foreward
Jun 10 : 01FEB05 | July 10 : ?????? | August 10 : ???? ---> Do your really expect forward movement in July?

qesehmk
05-11-2010, 05:54 PM
Below is data of PD from last four years for EB2-I - only for Jun, Jul & Aug.
Except July Fiasco , I don't see dates ever moving forward in July VB; but they do move in August VB.
Has anything changed in spillover laws in last 1 year - which will explain this no movement in July but in August?

Jun 06 : 01JAN03 | July 06 : 01JAN03 | August 06 : U ---> No change in July. Aug backward
Jun 07 : 01APR04 | July 07 : C | August 07 : U ---> July Fiasco
Jun 08 : 01APR04 | July 08 : 01APR04 | August 08 : 01JUN06 ---> No change in July. Aug forward
Jun 09 : 01JAN00 | July 09 : 01JAN00 | August 09 : 01OCT03 ---> No change in July. Aug forward
Jun 10 : 01FEB05 | July 10 : ?????? | August 10 : ???? ---> Do your really expect forward movement in July?

Thanks.

hope4best
05-11-2010, 06:14 PM
Thats nice pattern for EB2. It jumps almost 2 years ahead from July VB to Aug VB. Lets hope this pattern continues for 2010. Lot of EB2 folks will be happy with this pattern.

hiralal
05-11-2010, 08:58 PM
Below is data of PD from last four years for EB2-I - only for Jun, Jul & Aug.
Except July Fiasco , I don't see dates ever moving forward in July VB; but they do move in August VB.
Has anything changed in spillover laws in last 1 year - which will explain this no movement in July but in August?

Jun 06 : 01JAN03 | July 06 : 01JAN03 | August 06 : U ---> No change in July. Aug backward
Jun 07 : 01APR04 | July 07 : C | August 07 : U ---> July Fiasco
Jun 08 : 01APR04 | July 08 : 01APR04 | August 08 : 01JUN06 ---> No change in July. Aug forward
Jun 09 : 01JAN00 | July 09 : 01JAN00 | August 09 : 01OCT03 ---> No change in July. Aug forward
Jun 10 : 01FEB05 | July 10 : ?????? | August 10 : ???? ---> Do your really expect forward movement in July?
yes - There will be some movement - it depends on ROW demand and spillovers - they may even move it ahead just for the heck of it - remember that they are desperate for $$$ - it all depends on how much pressure is there for lawyer lobby (AILA) - USCIS shortfall and I guess doctors who do immigration checkups will also get benefit.

vedicman
05-12-2010, 10:32 AM
Prediction is as good as the data available. From previous discussions (EB2-EB3 predictions) - it was predicted to see movement based on the data available - well, I am guessing the data was incorrect and therefore predictions can never be close to being correct.
Sincerely hope that the efforts of this community is to seek for data that is largely correct. I guess, may be IV can ask for the inclusion of advising USCIS to release the correct data frequently in the CIR draft.

TeddyKoochu
05-12-2010, 11:03 AM
Below is data of PD from last four years for EB2-I - only for Jun, Jul & Aug.
Except July Fiasco , I don't see dates ever moving forward in July VB; but they do move in August VB.
Has anything changed in spillover laws in last 1 year - which will explain this no movement in July but in August?

Jun 06 : 01JAN03 | July 06 : 01JAN03 | August 06 : U ---> No change in July. Aug backward
Jun 07 : 01APR04 | July 07 : C | August 07 : U ---> July Fiasco
Jun 08 : 01APR04 | July 08 : 01APR04 | August 08 : 01JUN06 ---> No change in July. Aug forward
Jun 09 : 01JAN00 | July 09 : 01JAN00 | August 09 : 01OCT03 ---> No change in July. Aug forward
Jun 10 : 01FEB05 | July 10 : ?????? | August 10 : ???? ---> Do your really expect forward movement in July?

Thnks for your trend analysis, I believe you are correct.

belmontboy
05-12-2010, 11:18 AM
how many numbers are available for EB1, EB2 and EB3 out of 140,000?

Also does any one know how many numbers spilled over in 2008, 2009?

pandu_hawaldar
05-12-2010, 11:26 AM
no offense, but with all these trend and analysis we do, there is one more trend I am seeing and that is no analysis or prediction works! if date moves forward for any category that will be temporary, again it will fall back for a year or two in next cycle. IMHO.

vin13
05-12-2010, 11:28 AM
Below is data of PD from last four years for EB2-I - only for Jun, Jul & Aug.
Except July Fiasco , I don't see dates ever moving forward in July VB; but they do move in August VB.
Has anything changed in spillover laws in last 1 year - which will explain this no movement in July but in August?

Jun 06 : 01JAN03 | July 06 : 01JAN03 | August 06 : U ---> No change in July. Aug backward
Jun 07 : 01APR04 | July 07 : C | August 07 : U ---> July Fiasco
Jun 08 : 01APR04 | July 08 : 01APR04 | August 08 : 01JUN06 ---> No change in July. Aug forward
Jun 09 : 01JAN00 | July 09 : 01JAN00 | August 09 : 01OCT03 ---> No change in July. Aug forward
Jun 10 : 01FEB05 | July 10 : ?????? | August 10 : ???? ---> Do your really expect forward movement in July?

Good review of previous performance.

What could be different this year compared to previous years are

1) DOS seems to make sure no visas are wasted and so may not want to wait for the last 2 months of the fiscal year.

2) More cases are pre-adjudicated which makes it easier for them to initiate the fall-across/fall-down in July than wait for August.

3) DOS has been good at not retrogressing the the visa dates further back in the last few months. They either stay where they are or move forward. But not back. This indicates that they are paying more attention and not randomly opening up visas. This means they want to issue visas by priority dates which would need proper planning (to make sure nothing gets wasted)


All these above factors may influence them to open up in July than August. Again, these are my gut feel.

shreekhand
05-12-2010, 12:12 PM
Regarding point 1):

Note that DoS has not wasted visa numbers after 2006. For all practical purposes, days of visa number wastage is history. Why do you think the July 2007 fiasco happened ?

vin13
05-12-2010, 01:48 PM
Regarding point 1):

Note that DoS has not wasted visa numbers after 2006. For all practical purposes, days of visa number wastage is history. Why do you think the July 2007 fiasco happened ?

That's exactly why they may want to release fall-across/fall-down numbers in July so they can make sure nothing gets wasted. The only point i am trying to make is there are good possibility that dates may start advancing in July

sam_hoosier
05-12-2010, 02:48 PM
below is data of pd from last four years for eb2-i - only for jun, jul & aug.
Except july fiasco , i don't see dates ever moving forward in july vb; but they do move in august vb.
Has anything changed in spillover laws in last 1 year - which will explain this no movement in july but in august?

Jun 06 : 01jan03 | july 06 : 01jan03 | august 06 : U ---> no change in july. Aug backward
jun 07 : 01apr04 | july 07 : C | august 07 : U ---> july fiasco
jun 08 : 01apr04 | july 08 : 01apr04 | august 08 : 01jun06 ---> no change in july. Aug forward
jun 09 : 01jan00 | july 09 : 01jan00 | august 09 : 01oct03 ---> no change in july. Aug forward
jun 10 : 01feb05 | july 10 : ?????? | august 10 : ???? ---> do your really expect forward movement in july?

dil ke khush rakhne ko ghalib yeh khayaal accha hai ;)

GCKaMaara
05-12-2010, 03:52 PM
How much spillover to EB2 India you guys are estimating this year?

dentist1
05-12-2010, 04:02 PM
Good review of previous performance.

What could be different this year compared to previous years are

1) DOS seems to make sure no visas are wasted and so may not want to wait for the last 2 months of the fiscal year.

2) More cases are pre-adjudicated which makes it easier for them to initiate the fall-across/fall-down in July than wait for August.

3) DOS has been good at not retrogressing the the visa dates further back in the last few months. They either stay where they are or move forward. But not back. This indicates that they are paying more attention and not randomly opening up visas. This means they want to issue visas by priority dates which would need proper planning (to make sure nothing gets wasted)


All these above factors may influence them to open up in July than August. Again, these are my gut feel.


Thanks for the information Vin, my question to you is where do you see the dates for EB2 India in July 2010?
Thanks again.

desitechie
05-12-2010, 04:55 PM
Thanks for the information Vin, my question to you is where do you see the dates for EB2 India in July 2010?
Thanks again.

July--->Sep 2010 will go to Dec 2005 (pessimistic) or Apr 2006 (Optimistic)

a_paradkar
05-12-2010, 05:49 PM
if their is any spill over then
the dates of China and India will be same for EB2 in July VB. then the actual spill over will happen in Aug & Sep... assuming the prediction numbers are true.

sidbee
05-12-2010, 05:54 PM
This thread is a crap fck.
Why are we speculating the dates just for the heck.Pl stop this.

WAIT_FOR_EVER_GC
05-12-2010, 07:16 PM
Can any expert say what will be the cutoff date after the spill over for EB2.

belmontboy
05-12-2010, 07:31 PM
best case july 2007
worst case oct 2006.

immi_seeker
05-12-2010, 07:57 PM
can any expert say what will be the cutoff date after the spill over for eb2.

best : July 1st 2006

worst: Otcober 1st 2005

FinalGC
05-13-2010, 09:43 AM
I would go with the prediction in the Jan 2010 Visa Bulletin:

WHAT ARE THE PROJECTIONS FOR CUT-OFF DATE MOVEMENT IN THE EMPLOYMENT PREFERENCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF FY-2010?
Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off dates which will be reached by the end of FY-2010 are as follows:
Employment Second:
China: July through October 2005................CHINA IS ALREADY AT NOV 2005...SO THIS HAS HAPPENED
India: February through early March 2005.........ONE MONTH BEHIND HERE....NOT BAD WITH THE PREDICTION

If Section 202(a)(5)were to apply:
China and India: October through December 2005 ..................THIS IS THE SPILLOVER CHANCES FOR JULY-SEPT 2010....MOST LIKELY IT WILL CLOSE AT JAN 1, 2006

nrk
05-13-2010, 10:40 AM
If it goes to Dec 2005 in Sept 2010 (optimistic) for me, pessimistic would be June 2005

July--->Sep 2010 will go to Dec 2005 (pessimistic) or Apr 2006 (Optimistic)

H1B-GC
05-13-2010, 11:00 AM
I would go with the prediction in the Jan 2010 Visa Bulletin:

WHAT ARE THE PROJECTIONS FOR CUT-OFF DATE MOVEMENT IN THE EMPLOYMENT PREFERENCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF FY-2010?
Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off dates which will be reached by the end of FY-2010 are as follows:
Employment Second:
China: July through October 2005................CHINA IS ALREADY AT NOV 2005...SO THIS HAS HAPPENED
India: February through early March 2005.........ONE MONTH BEHIND HERE....NOT BAD WITH THE PREDICTION

If Section 202(a)(5)were to apply:
China and India: October through December 2005 ..................THIS IS THE SPILLOVER CHANCES FOR JULY-SEPT 2010....MOST LIKELY IT WILL CLOSE AT JAN 1, 2006

But you have to remember that it moved 10 Days for EB2-I in 9 Months in the Fiscal Year!!!

vin13
05-13-2010, 11:35 AM
I would go with the prediction in the Jan 2010 Visa Bulletin:

WHAT ARE THE PROJECTIONS FOR CUT-OFF DATE MOVEMENT IN THE EMPLOYMENT PREFERENCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF FY-2010?
Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off dates which will be reached by the end of FY-2010 are as follows:
Employment Second:
China: July through October 2005................CHINA IS ALREADY AT NOV 2005...SO THIS HAS HAPPENED
India: February through early March 2005.........ONE MONTH BEHIND HERE....NOT BAD WITH THE PREDICTION

If Section 202(a)(5)were to apply:
China and India: October through December 2005 ..................THIS IS THE SPILLOVER CHANCES FOR JULY-SEPT 2010....MOST LIKELY IT WILL CLOSE AT JAN 1, 2006

I tend to agree with you. Projections by DOS seems to be closer to reality.
I would stay conservative contrary to many other predictions.

1) China moving to Nov 2005 is a good thing for India. This means India will get all the remaining fall-down/fall-across numbers until priority date reaches Nov 2005. After that both India and China will share and move the dates by a month or so. This should get India to Dec 2005 to Jan 2006.

2) Many see the dates have not moved much for so many months. So they can be skeptical about the date movements in the last few months. The reason why i anticipate much larger movements in the final months is due to the fact that India gets about 3 times more visas through fall-across/fall-down than what is alloted for just India.

2009 info
Country cap for Eb-2 - aprox. 2800
2009 India for Eb-2 was 10,116.
fall-down/fall-across numbers 10,116 - 2800 = aprox. 7316

So we can see that visa movement for India (Eb-2) is greatly influenced by the number of fall-down/fall-across which seem to happen mostly in the last quarter.