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View Full Version : Very litte EB3 I485 approval after Oct.1, what's going on?


benbear
10-28-2007, 12:16 PM
I looked into I-485 tracker at , sorted it by I-485 Approval/Denial Date. Very little EB3 approval after Oct.1. Take the first 2 pages as example,
out of 100 approval, only 11 of them are EB3, and only 1 EB3 is from TSC.

The percentage is way too low. It should be at least around 30% offically and it was much higher than 30% historically. Now DOS pushed the EB3 cut off date so far back. What's going on? Are they going to eliminate EB3 or what? Retrogress 20 years like FB? Grurus, any thoughts? Or they are just doing some internal balancing then pick up EB3 a little later?

chakalov
10-28-2007, 12:28 PM
Hey relax!
DOL pushed the dates so far back so they can figure out how many EB applications they recived during the VB fiasco. Now after they have received counted and sorted all the applications VB will start moving faster and more predictable. Expect dec visa bulletin to move at lest 6-12 months for EB3 (ROW) not sure about India and China.

benbear
10-28-2007, 12:42 PM
I hope what you said is true.

But I have the feeling that they are very good at supporting some group ( like EB2, Schedule A) and beat down other group to death (like EB3). Similar thing happened in the past few years, say, RIR vs. Non-RIR, RIR people got LC in 3 month while Non-RIR people got it in 5+ years.

I am just afraid they change their strategy, support high end immigrant EB1/EB2 and only Schedule A or some people they need in EB3. Look at the H1B $5820 thing, their intention is obvious, shutting the door...


Hey relax!
DOL pushed the dates so far back so they can figure out how many EB applications they recived during the VB fiasco. Now after they have received counted and sorted all the applications VB will start moving faster and more predictable. Expect dec visa bulletin to move at lest 6-12 months for EB3 (ROW) not sure about India and China.

GC08
10-28-2007, 03:09 PM
I hope what you said is true.

But I have the feeling that they are very good at supporting some group ( like EB2, Schedule A) and beat down other group to death (like EB3). Similar thing happened in the past few years, say, RIR vs. Non-RIR, RIR people got LC in 3 month while Non-RIR people got it in 5+ years.

I am just afraid they change their strategy, support high end immigrant EB1/EB2 and only Schedule A or some people they need in EB3. Look at the H1B $5820 thing, their intention is obvious, shutting the door...

I would not be surprised at all if what you said is actually happening. Look at I140. Some EB2 filed in 2007 have gotten I140 approved while a lot of EB3 filed in 2006 are still waiting. EB2 I140 used to be behind EB3 in NSC just a couple of months ago. Now, see the difference. Go figure. :mad:

indianabacklog
10-28-2007, 03:14 PM
I hope what you said is true.

But I have the feeling that they are very good at supporting some group ( like EB2, Schedule A) and beat down other group to death (like EB3). Similar thing happened in the past few years, say, RIR vs. Non-RIR, RIR people got LC in 3 month while Non-RIR people got it in 5+ years.

I am just afraid they change their strategy, support high end immigrant EB1/EB2 and only Schedule A or some people they need in EB3. Look at the H1B $5820 thing, their intention is obvious, shutting the door...

Your theory on the labor RIR vs non RIR is not quite true. It was only true for selected number of states.

My labor cert was RIR and it took three and a half years.

GCHPLC
10-28-2007, 07:24 PM
I looked into I-485 tracker at , sorted it by I-485 Approval/Denial Date. Very little EB3 approval after Oct.1. Take the first 2 pages as example,
out of 100 approval, only 11 of them are EB3, and only 1 EB3 is from TSC.

The percentage is way too low. It should be at least around 30% offically and it was much higher than 30% historically. Now DOS pushed the EB3 cut off date so far back. What's going on? Are they going to eliminate EB3 or what? Retrogress 20 years like FB? Grurus, any thoughts? Or they are just doing some internal balancing then pick up EB3 a little later?

Where did you get this info?

benbear
10-28-2007, 07:33 PM
I knew what you are talking about, supply & demand,too many EB3.
But the fact after Oct.1 is EB3 approval percentage out of total approval is too low, only 11%, of course the sample from is not big enough, that's a different issue. Why they couldn't approve EB3s 30% or more like before?

There was a theory that DOS tried to push EB3 ROW to current, then applied
AC21 to move EB2 INDIA/CHINA cut off date forward, and, at the end they will move EB3 INDIA/CHINA/MEXICO. But looks like from what I saw, they will first move EB2 INDIA/CHINA to current first. As you all know, how many EB2 nowadays, after Jan. 2006? Too many! So I am afraid the results will be 01-05 EB3 filers are left behind far and far away.

We will see in Dec. or Jan. visa bulletin. I hope what I guessed is wrong.



Each year almost same number of EB2 and EB3 visas are allocated (1/3 of 140,000 number). EB1 numbers not allocated are passed to EB2 so overall EB2 number may be somewhat more than EB3.

The difference in processing time comes from that fact that there are lot more EB3 applicants than EB2.

benbear
10-28-2007, 07:35 PM
I knew it was only true for some states. I just wanted to point a fact in
RIR vs. non RIR.
Your theory on the labor RIR vs non RIR is not quite true. It was only true for selected number of states.

My labor cert was RIR and it took three and a half years.

benbear
10-28-2007, 07:37 PM
I got some data from , the rest part is speculation.
Where did you get this info?

dealsnet
10-29-2007, 09:49 AM
See my post regarding this matter in this forum. (SEE LAST PAGE)

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=14737

I looked into I-485 tracker at , sorted it by I-485 Approval/Denial Date. Very little EB3 approval after Oct.1. Take the first 2 pages as example,
out of 100 approval, only 11 of them are EB3, and only 1 EB3 is from TSC.

The percentage is way too low. It should be at least around 30% offically and it was much higher than 30% historically. Now DOS pushed the EB3 cut off date so far back. What's going on? Are they going to eliminate EB3 or what? Retrogress 20 years like FB? Grurus, any thoughts? Or they are just doing some internal balancing then pick up EB3 a little later?

sriramkalyan
10-29-2007, 12:35 PM
very good ...

Question is i have EAD .... I DO NOT KNOW WHAT I CAN DO WITH IT ?

It is obvious .. EB3 went back to 2001 .. why would there be any approvals

pns27
10-29-2007, 02:57 PM
I have a question:
As most of the EB folks are in the system, is it true that EB3 will not get a chance to dip in to the ROW pool of visas?

What I mean is and correct me if I am wrong; In last quarter of every years any remaining EB visas from ROW will be used by countries like India/China. However the order of preference is Eb1, EB2 and if any visas are left then EB3. If so them till every Eb1 and EB2 in the system are approved EB3 may not get any additional visas other that the regular quota, RIGHT?

So there is fair chance that all EB1 and EB2 will get cleared soon and EB3 will be stuck for ever.:confused:

nlssubbu
10-29-2007, 03:23 PM
I have a question:
As most of the EB folks are in the system, is it true that EB3 will not get a chance to dip in to the ROW pool of visas?

What I mean is and correct me if I am wrong; In last quarter of every years any remaining EB visas from ROW will be used by countries like India/China. However the order of preference is Eb1, EB2 and if any visas are left then EB3. If so them till every Eb1 and EB2 in the system are approved EB3 may not get any additional visas other that the regular quota, RIGHT?

So there is fair chance that all EB1 and EB2 will get cleared soon and EB3 will be stuck for ever.:confused:

This theory of allocation is debated in length and breath during the last retrogression and as of yet no one knows how exactly the excess visas are being distributed.

Two possible flows:

1. EB1 (ROW) -> EB2 (ROW) -> EB3 (ROW) -> EB3 (Retro) -> EB2 (Retro) -> EB1 (Retro)

2. EB1 (ROW) -> EB1 (Retro, if any) -> EB2 (ROW) -> EB2 (Retro) -> EB3 (ROW) -> EB3 (Retro)

You can find these discussions regarding the distribution pattern and analysis done by many users in immigration portal. Unfortunately many posts by a user 'Unitednations' are deleted by him to make those reading incomplete :(

If anyone knows any rules related to the distribution pattern, please post it here.

Thanks

chakalov
10-29-2007, 07:18 PM
You are half way right. It goes like this:

EB1 (ROW) -> 7% of remaining EB1 ROW flows to EB1 (Retro, if any), the rest -> EB2 (ROW) -> 7% of remaining EB2 ROW plus any unused EB1 (Retro, if any) flows to EB2 (Retro), the rest -> EB3 (ROW) -> any unused visas flow to EB3 (Retro) + any unused EB2 (Retro, if any available)

This theory of allocation is debated in length and breath during the last retrogression and as of yet no one knows how exactly the excess visas are being distributed.

Two possible flows:

1. EB1 (ROW) -> EB2 (ROW) -> EB3 (ROW) -> EB3 (Retro) -> EB2 (Retro) -> EB1 (Retro)

2. EB1 (ROW) -> EB1 (Retro, if any) -> EB2 (ROW) -> EB2 (Retro) -> EB3 (ROW) -> EB3 (Retro)

You can find these discussions regarding the distribution pattern and analysis done by many users in immigration portal. Unfortunately many posts by a user 'Unitednations' are deleted by him to make those reading incomplete :(

If anyone knows any rules related to the distribution pattern, please post it here.

Thanks

iad2ead
10-29-2007, 08:27 PM
If extra visa numbers are left out after assigning to EB1s then how is the distribution
going to take place - Do they divide equally among EB2s and EB3s or is it first
they allocate to EB2 and then allocate to EB3 only if it is left out...

Gurus please comment

regards
Iad

benbear
10-29-2007, 09:12 PM
According to Unitednations, it should be like this:

If EB3 ROW is retrogressed:

then, remaining of EB1(ROW) flows to EB2(ROW);
remaining of EB2(ROW) plus any unused EB1(ROW) flows to EB3(ROW);
and all retrogressed country is under 7% limit.

After EB3(ROW) is current, then all unused EB1(ROW),EB2(ROW), EB3(ROW)
flows to retrogressed country EB2 and EB3.

His opinion is DOS considers EB3 ROW as higher priority over EB2 INDIA/China.

Otherwise the whole EB3 groups are doomed, since there are too many EB2 filers after Jan. 2006.



You are half way right. It goes like this:

EB1 (ROW) -> 7% of remaining EB1 ROW flows to EB1 (Retro, if any), the rest -> EB2 (ROW) -> 7% of remaining EB2 ROW plus any unused EB1 (Retro, if any) flows to EB2 (Retro), the rest -> EB3 (ROW) -> any unused visas flow to EB3 (Retro) + any unused EB2 (Retro, if any available)

namm80
10-30-2007, 01:25 AM
According to Unitednations, it should be like this:

After EB3(ROW) is current, then all unused EB1(ROW),EB2(ROW), EB3(ROW)
flows to retrogressed country EB2 and EB3.


Whats stated above is somewhat misleading. At no point in time any retrogressed country can get more than 7% of annual quota. For example, If they can't fill up 7% people from Congo...they are not going to distribute unused Congo quota to India/China if India/China has already reached 7% allocations each.

Unused numbers from EB-1 for Country A trickle first to EB-2 for Country A.
Unused EB2 numbers (and/or EB-1 numbers) for country A trickle to EB-3 for country A.

pns27
10-30-2007, 02:03 AM
According to Unitednations, it should be like this:

If EB3 ROW is retrogressed:

then, remaining of EB1(ROW) flows to EB2(ROW);
remaining of EB2(ROW) plus any unused EB1(ROW) flows to EB3(ROW);
and all retrogressed country is under 7% limit.

After EB3(ROW) is current, then all unused EB1(ROW),EB2(ROW), EB3(ROW)
flows to retrogressed country EB2 and EB3.

His opinion is DOS considers EB3 ROW as higher priority over EB2 INDIA/China.

Otherwise the whole EB3 groups are doomed, since there are too many EB2 filers after Jan. 2006.

Exactly, that is the poing I was making..:mad:

"What I mean is and correct me if I am wrong; In last quarter of every years any remaining EB visas from ROW will be used by countries like India/China. However the order of preference is Eb1, EB2 and if any visas are left then EB3. If so them till every Eb1 and EB2 in the system are approved EB3 may not get any additional visas other that the regular quota, RIGHT?

So there is fair chance that all EB1 and EB2 will get cleared soon and EB3 will be stuck for ever."

willwin
10-30-2007, 11:36 AM
Exactly, that is the poing I was making..:mad:

"What I mean is and correct me if I am wrong; In last quarter of every years any remaining EB visas from ROW will be used by countries like India/China. However the order of preference is Eb1, EB2 and if any visas are left then EB3. If so them till every Eb1 and EB2 in the system are approved EB3 may not get any additional visas other that the regular quota, RIGHT?

So there is fair chance that all EB1 and EB2 will get cleared soon and EB3 will be stuck for ever."

If what you said is true, then we could very well assume that during July 2007, USCIS has cleared ALL pending EB1/EB2 485s and there are no EB2 485 applications pending as of Sep 2007 (except those filed during July-Aug 2007) excluding those stuck in name check. And only because of that, they were able to clear several EB3 cases. Is that true????

Does not make sense to me.

user1205
10-30-2007, 01:23 PM
Whats stated above is somewhat misleading. At no point in time any retrogressed country can get more than 7% of annual quota. A.

India got A LOT of numbers during June/July/August ... way more than the 7%. So all these rules about how the numbers get transfered seem to be on paper only.

nlssubbu
10-30-2007, 01:28 PM
Whats stated above is somewhat misleading. At no point in time any retrogressed country can get more than 7% of annual quota. For example, If they can't fill up 7% people from Congo...they are not going to distribute unused Congo quota to India/China if India/China has already reached 7% allocations each.

Unused numbers from EB-1 for Country A trickle first to EB-2 for Country A.
Unused EB2 numbers (and/or EB-1 numbers) for country A trickle to EB-3 for country A.

7% country limit does not apply when all categories are current by AC21 rule. [Similar to July bulletin]. In those cases, any pending application can be approved irrespective of country of origin.

Thanks

nlssubbu
10-30-2007, 01:35 PM
India got A LOT of numbers during June/July/August ... way more than the 7%. So all these rules about how the numbers get transfered seem to be on paper only.

If all other categories are current, then 7% rule is not applicable and all pending applications irrespective of country of origin can be approved. This all depends on how many applications are received by ROW. If ROW has less approvable cases during this year, then the excess will flow to Retro countries. At this point of time neither USCIS nor DOL has any information regarding the break up and how they arrive at a cut-off date is still a puzzle. This is discussed in length and depth in the past to come to a near realistic projection and did not succeed. I had also seen some ROW members unhappy about the visas getting distributed to Retro countries in this fashion as well.

Thanks

indianabacklog
10-30-2007, 01:40 PM
I think it would be great if these things did follow any logical fashion. However, I think that we could come up with any explanation and they all have as much chance of being correct as each other.

Just my thoughts on what appears to be a randomized system.

pappu
10-30-2007, 01:54 PM
In general this is a slowdown season until the end of this year. What I am also seeing is less people from oversubscribed countries getting approved. This is due to the per country quota. The thanksgiving, christmas, new year and yearly audits at USCIS will further slow down the movement of approvals.

p_kumar
10-30-2007, 02:12 PM
any idea when they will be approved?. i know this is a dumb Q but cant bear this uncertainity.thanks

Gravitation
10-30-2007, 03:16 PM
any idea when they will be approved?. i know this is a dumb Q but cant bear this uncertainity.thanks
Assuming that:

you are EB3 India.
your I-140 is either approved or doesn't become an issue later.
your namecheck goes through in the first try
your filing date is closer to July 2nd than Aug 17th
congress keeps doing what it usually does and doesn't pass any meaningful law
my instinctive guess is of any valueExpect good news in second half of 2008 (earliest) or 2009 (likely) or 2010 (latest).

Any and all disclaimers ever invented apply here.

immi_seeker
10-30-2007, 04:31 PM
Assuming that:

you are EB3 India.
your I-140 is either approved or doesn't become an issue later.
your namecheck goes through in the first try
your filing date is closer to July 2nd than Aug 17th
congress keeps doing what it usually does and doesn't pass any meaningful law
my instinctive guess is of any valueExpect good news in second half of 2008 (earliest) or 2009 (likely) or 2010 (latest).

Any and all disclaimers ever invented apply here.

where does the PD fit in this calculation ?

venky08
10-30-2007, 04:35 PM
to prioritize the applications received on same RD.
where does the PD fit in this calculation ?

p_kumar
10-30-2007, 04:39 PM
Assuming that:

you are EB3 India.
your I-140 is either approved or doesn't become an issue later.
your namecheck goes through in the first try
your filing date is closer to July 2nd than Aug 17th
congress keeps doing what it usually does and doesn't pass any meaningful law
my instinctive guess is of any valueExpect good news in second half of 2008 (earliest) or 2009 (likely) or 2010 (latest).

Any and all disclaimers ever invented apply here.

Great Answer! thanks. your assumptions of my case are correct.
:D

CADude
10-30-2007, 06:43 PM
Yes PD has big role to play for retro country like India:
If your PD is Apr 21 2001 or before. You can expect to get Approval any day. :D if your PD Apr 21 2003 then wait for 1-2 years. :) if your PD is Apr 21 2007 then wait for long and pray. :mad:

where does the PD fit in this calculation ?

Eb3Pro
10-30-2007, 07:04 PM
all retro countreis india/china PDS may not matter much. Currently EB3 PD for india is 2001 it may take 2 to 3 yrs to move to 2003 or 2004.

Mean while to reduce the visa wastage DOS can make all current and AC21 kicks in :) (expect this at least once for every 2 yrs) . if all are current then cases will be sorted by received date and given approval. 7% country limit does not apply in this scenario ( if 140 is approved and name check is cleared) .

So EB3 guys from india/China ... if your received date is close to July2 ...
you will have pretty good chance to get GC in next 2-3yrs no matter what your PD is.

Keep watching guys !!

paskal
10-30-2007, 07:22 PM
WHILE everthing is current, as was the case in July/Aug, RD matters a lot and many people got approvals. ONCE retrogressed, only PD matters. If your PD does not have a visa number available for it, USCIS cannot give you a GC (barring errors and omissions by USCIS), period. And you can only become current by PD...

If you are current then RD matter again, so for two EB3 PD's from
A) PD 2000 and RD 2007
B) PD 2001 and RD 2006

B could get a GC fisrt- both are current (that is key!) and B has an earlier RD.

benbear
10-30-2007, 08:37 PM
all retro countreis india/china PDS may not matter much.
This could be true, based on their behavior. Image the following scenary:

A) EB3 India PD June 2001
B) EB3 India PD June 2007

Both of them filed I485 in July 2007. DOS hold cut off date at 4/22/2001 until Aug. 2008, suddenly make it current in Aug. 2008. Somehow B got I485 approved, while A not. Meantime, C) EB3 India PD June 2008 jumped in.
Then EB3 became unavailable, later DOS hold cut off data at 6/1/2001 until
Aug. 2009, then make it all open, C got approved, A still not.....
This happens again and again until A retired...

Acutally I don't worry above scenary at all, because people can not have that bad luck like A.
What I worry is: are they going to change their policy to shut the door for EB3?

all retro countreis india/china PDS may not matter much. Currently EB3 PD for india is 2001 it may take 2 to 3 yrs to move to 2003 or 2004.

Mean while to reduce the visa wastage DOS can make all current and AC21 kicks in :) (expect this at least once for every 2 yrs) . if all are current then cases will be sorted by received date and given approval. 7% country limit does not apply in this scenario ( if 140 is approved and name check is cleared) .

So EB3 guys from india/China ... if your received date is close to July2 ...
you will have pretty good chance to get GC in next 2-3yrs no matter what your PD is.

Keep watching guys !!

Gravitation
10-31-2007, 02:59 PM
where does the PD fit in this calculation ?
His PD was already given in his post. Nov 2003.

dpp
10-31-2007, 03:28 PM
Nobody can predict what logic USCIS uses. They have something as per law, but thats not clear. So, they can take whatever the way they want on individual basis. AFAIK, PD mainly matters filing for I-485. After that nobody knows exactly when one gets GC. Its pure luck.


Yes PD has big role to play for retro country like India:
If your PD is Apr 21 2001 or before. You can expect to get Approval any day. :D if your PD Apr 21 2003 then wait for 1-2 years. :) if your PD is Apr 21 2007 then wait for long and pray. :mad:

gc_check
10-31-2007, 04:21 PM
We just have to wait another couple of weeks, for the December VB, to see if there is any movement with Cut-Off dates, Mostly likely it will have some forward movement,


Per the Nov VB except below all others are current
EB2
China 01JAN06
India 01APR04

EB3
All except below countries 01AUG02
China 01SEP01
India 22APR01
Mexico 22APR01
Philippines 01AUG02

EB2 for India might quicky move to some where around end of 2004 or early 2005 and will then move very slow or not at all, EB2 numbers have significantly increased since PERM and retrogression (after 2005).

EB2 China, already in Jan 2006, might move couple of months.

For EB3, The cut-off dates I do not think, was set on some calculation, DOS chose some dates just to not issue visa in excess(although they waste many),

Think will swiftly move to mid or even later months of 2003 (Atleast most of them I know except the unlucky few stuck in Backlog, etc) all have their GC now. The dates might then slowly move to 2004(more unlikely to happen this year). There are many people with PD 2001/2002 and 2003 who just got their Labor from backlog, these folks papers would not be ready untill I-140 is approved for adjucation. So they would not create any demand for these earlier PD's in next couple of months, and the cut-off dates could move forward and if these petitions are many in number, then the dates could very well retrogress again too. Good that Labor Substitution was removed, even though there might be few last minute filings and these petitions (I-140) chances are it could take much longer to get approved with queries, etc.

BharatPremi
10-31-2007, 05:15 PM
any idea when they will be approved?. i know this is a dumb Q but cant bear this uncertainity.thanks

In my opinion Eb3-India , PD: Prior to Dec 03 will be done by December 08.

Eb3Pro
10-31-2007, 05:16 PM
You got it Right !!! :) Great possibilty if you look at how USCIS working these days. Now a days there are not many EB3 approvals ... bit slow. Still they are trying to figure out visa demand and very conservative for setting cuttoff dates. by the time USCIS figure it out .. it is gonna last quarter and DOS does not want visa wastage and will make them all current.

Then USCIS will have no choice except to approve based on received date.

it happended in the past ... it will happen again. My PD is 2004 April.. i will not be surprised if some one from retro country with 2006/2007 PD get GC before me !!!


all retro countreis india/china PDS may not matter much.
This could be true, based on their behavior. Image the following scenary:

A) EB3 India PD June 2001
B) EB3 India PD June 2007

Both of them filed I485 in July 2007. DOS hold cut off date at 4/22/2001 until Aug. 2008, suddenly make it current in Aug. 2008. Somehow B got I485 approved, while A not. Meantime, C) EB3 India PD June 2008 jumped in.
Then EB3 became unavailable, later DOS hold cut off data at 6/1/2001 until
Aug. 2009, then make it all open, C got approved, A still not.....
This happens again and again until A retired...

Acutally I don't worry above scenary at all, because people can not have that bad luck like A.
What I worry is: are they going to change their policy to shut the door for EB3?

eb3retro
10-31-2007, 06:24 PM
In my opinion Eb3-India , PD: Prior to Dec 03 will be done by December 08.


amen to that..hope your thoughts become true.