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rajuram
11-09-2007, 12:54 AM
According to the following document from USCIS they issued receipts for approx 150K applications for AOS in sept. So my estimate of the total back log is


June filers 75k
July - 25k
August 200k
Sept 150k
Oct 50K

Total = 500k

http://www.uscis.gov/files/article/APPLICATIONS%20FOR%20IMMIGRATION%20BENEFITS_Septem ber07.pdf

JunRN
11-09-2007, 01:00 AM
That same link you gave tells us that 655k is pending/back-log for AOS....

gc_chahiye
11-09-2007, 02:10 AM
According to the following document from USCIS they issued receipts for approx 150K applications for AOS in sept. So my estimate of the total back log is


June filers 75k
July - 25k
August 200k
Sept 150k
Oct 50K

Total = 500k

http://www.uscis.gov/files/article/APPLICATIONS%20FOR%20IMMIGRATION%20BENEFITS_Septem ber07.pdf

why more filers in Sept than June? I thought most PDs were better in June than in Sept...

sroyc
11-09-2007, 02:24 AM
I think they are talking about the number of receipts that were issued in September, not the number of AOS filings.

why more filers in Sept than June? I thought most PDs were better in June than in Sept...

senk1s
11-09-2007, 02:28 AM
We were not even included in this counting :)
our ND is in Oct

gc_chahiye
11-09-2007, 03:43 AM
I think they are talking about the number of receipts that were issued in September, not the number of AOS filings.

oh ok, it makes sense then. thanks for clarifying that.

lotres
11-09-2007, 08:08 AM
My lawyer told me the backlog is 400K. As an European, I am expecting to wait between 2 to 3 years for my GC. Anything sooner would be a nice surprise!

manderson
11-09-2007, 09:57 AM
unless you are a European on EB3.

My lawyer told me the backlog is 400K. As an European, I am expecting to wait between 2 to 3 years for my GC. Anything sooner would be a nice surprise!

benbear
11-09-2007, 10:07 AM
It is safe to say notice date in Sept equal to receipting by USCIS in Sept, because at notice date, USCIS actually open your file then send receipt.

So,from , EB receipt in Sept vs. receipt in Oct = 2:1

150k in Sept. include both EB(100K) and FB (50K).
(Note: assume received FB every month 50K. 50K is a reasonable assumption,
otherwise it's no way for USCIS to approve 800K AOS a year.)

Since EB in Sept vs. Oct is 2:1, so total EB receipting in Oct. should be 50K.

Out of the 655k total, the key is lead time for FB approval, how many month?
This is the key! If we assume average FB approval takes 6 month,
then EB out of the 655k is 655K-50Kx6=355K.

Add the 50K EB in Oct. Total EB backlog is 405K.

Still the key is average FB approval time, any gurus has any idea.
I am sure the time is not 12 month. If it's 12 month,
then EB backlog= 655K-50Kx12+50K=105k. :D:D:D Which is impossible!!

That same link you gave tells us that 655k is pending/back-log for AOS....

indianabacklog
11-09-2007, 10:20 AM
My lawyer told me the backlog is 400K. As an European, I am expecting to wait between 2 to 3 years for my GC. Anything sooner would be a nice surprise!

It is going to very much depend on your priority date and employment based category.

benbear
11-09-2007, 10:39 AM
Let me simplify the EB backlog equation:

EB backlog as of Oct31 = 655K(average lead time for FB approval)x50K/month+50KEB in Oct

Do the simple math, we can get the following table:

Average time for FB approval EB backlog
5month 455K
6month 405K
7month 355K
8month 305K
9month 255K
10month 205K


It is safe to say notice date in Sept equal to receipting by USCIS in Sept, because at notice date, USCIS actually open your file then send receipt.

So,from , EB receipt in Sept vs. receipt in Oct = 2:1

150k in Sept. include both EB(100K) and FB (50K).
(Note: assume received FB every month 50K. 50K is a reasonable assumption,
otherwise it's no way for USCIS to approve 800K AOS a year.)

Since EB in Sept vs. Oct is 2:1, so total EB receipting in Oct. should be 50K.

Out of the 655k total, the key is lead time for FB approval, how many month?
This is the key! If we assume average FB approval takes 6 month,
then EB out of the 655k is 655K-50Kx6=355K.

Add the 50K EB in Oct. Total EB backlog is 405K.

Still the key is average FB approval time, any gurus has any idea.
I am sure the time is not 12 month. If it's 12 month,
then EB backlog= 655K-50Kx12+50K=105k. :D:D:D Which is impossible!!

chapper
11-09-2007, 10:59 AM
USCIS Ombudsmun Report - Total I140 approved:

Approved
2000:89,583
2001: 99,659
2002: 93,533
2003:62,281
2004:67,552
2005:94,211
2006:104,168
Oct 2006 to April 2007: 65,098

dealsnet
11-09-2007, 11:13 AM
You can check all LUD and all statistics by google. Add your case after log into google. see the link for details

http://imminav.com/gadgets.php

gcisadawg
11-09-2007, 11:32 AM
According to the following document from USCIS they issued receipts for approx 150K applications for AOS in sept. So my estimate of the total back log is


June filers 75k
July - 25k
August 200k
Sept 150k
Oct 50K

Total = 500k

http://www.uscis.gov/files/article/APPLICATIONS%20FOR%20IMMIGRATION%20BENEFITS_Septem ber07.pdf

If you look at the previous "Applications for Immigration benefits" update issued by USCIS, here are the numbers.

Month No of I-485 receipted
April 2007 59,266
May 2007 68,265
June 2007 69,098
July 2007 68,498
Aug2007 116,177
September 2007 157,062

These are based on notice/receipt generated dates. ( if an application is submitted on July 2nd but has a notice date of Aug10th, it would be considered as August receipted application and would not count towards July)

If they are based on receipt dates, then Sep 2007 would not have 157K! Since the free ride ended on Aug 17th!

We need to know the applications receipted in Oct 2007 to get the full picture of the July VISAGATE!

just my $0.02!

manderson
11-09-2007, 11:56 AM
another good 485 stats website is this (THIS IS NOT A PLUG):
http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html

this has status prediction feature also but wait till Feb/ March to get more accurate results when all the Sept/October receipts are counted in.

shikra1
11-10-2007, 04:33 PM
Remember, USCIS only tells us "total" I-485 receipts. They don't break it down to what many of us are interested to know, which is, how many are family based and how many are employment based. There is no way to know how many of the 150K receipts issued in Sept for I-485 were EB.

FB and EB combined annual limit is 366,000 immigrant visas (226K FB + 140K EB)

Again quoting from the monthly visa bulletin:

"Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620. The dependent area limit is set at 2%, or 7,320."

andy garcia
11-10-2007, 10:30 PM
Remember, USCIS only tells us "total" I-485 receipts. They don't break it down to what many of us are interested to know, which is, how many are family based and how many are employment based. There is no way to know how many of the 150K receipts issued in Sept for I-485 were EB.

FB and EB combined annual limit is 366,000 immigrant visas (226K FB + 140K EB)



That total also includes Asylum/refugee, DV lottery and Immediate Relatives.

pappu
11-10-2007, 11:57 PM
USCIS Ombudsmun Report - Total I140 approved:

Approved
2000:89,583
2001: 99,659
2002: 93,533
2003:62,281
2004:67,552
2005:94,211
2006:104,168
Oct 2006 to April 2007: 65,098
found this on another site

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/yearbook/2006/table10d.xls

dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/yearbook/2006/table10d.xls

chapper
11-11-2007, 02:26 AM
Please add more data if you find.....

http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/570/workinprogressue6.jpg

chapper
11-11-2007, 04:29 PM
http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/338/workinprogress2xj2.th.jpg (http://img216.imageshack.us/my.php?image=workinprogress2xj2.jpg)

cagedcactus
11-11-2007, 04:38 PM
In short... this backlog is not going away, until everyone of us participates at state level, and starts making a difference.
We must stand up and fight this unfair system. they are not going to do anything for us, if we just sit on our lazy behinds....