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India_GC
08-25-2006, 02:53 PM
???

retropain
08-25-2006, 02:56 PM
I assume you're PD is Mar 2003...

By December it will move to 15 Mar 2003.

GCBy3000
08-25-2006, 02:57 PM
I think. But when is ??

India_GC
08-25-2006, 02:59 PM
I assume you're PD is Mar 2003...

By December it will move to 15 Mar 2003.

Thanks..but may I know the logic behind your prediction.

Thanks.

yabadaba
08-25-2006, 04:32 PM
dude u r such a flip flopper..one day u say everybody will be current.. now u r extending it by a year to move just 3 months... ur insider is insane like u

qvadis
08-25-2006, 06:08 PM
With some number crunching and baseless assumptions, 2008 sounds reasonable.

Baseless assumptions:
240K cases at the back-log centers (EB2 + EB3)
Distribution from 2005:
All EB2 / EB3: 48k / 120k
India EB2 / EB3: 16k / 23k -> Ratio India / World: 1/3 (EB2) 1/5 (EB3)

Resulting in the following back-log case:
All EB2 / EB3: 80k / 160k
India EB2 / EB3: 25k / 30k
ROW EB2 / EB3: 55k / 130k

If the back-log centers can really finish all these cases in FY 2007, even EB2-world will become retrogressed, so no more spill-overs, besides EB1->EB2 ROW
7% ceiling EB2/EB3 ~3k -> India EB2 / EB3: 8yrs / 10yrs.
-> March 2003 in EB2 India will take 2-4 years from now.

We need a bill, and we need it fast.

gondalguru
08-26-2006, 10:48 PM
Nice calculation.

Now what about EB-2 india PD of 9/2004.
By 2020??? 2025???
May be I should earn half a million dollars in few years and file for EB5.

India_GC
08-28-2006, 11:33 AM
Does the wait have to be that long?

But what about the fact that not all labor applications have been cleared as of today? Hasn't the process of labor approvals in BRC just started?

vxg
08-28-2006, 12:15 PM
With some number crunching and baseless assumptions, 2008 sounds reasonable.

Baseless assumptions:
240K cases at the back-log centers (EB2 + EB3)
Distribution from 2005:
All EB2 / EB3: 48k / 120k
India EB2 / EB3: 16k / 23k -> Ratio India / World: 1/3 (EB2) 1/5 (EB3)

Resulting in the following back-log case:
All EB2 / EB3: 80k / 160k
India EB2 / EB3: 25k / 30k
ROW EB2 / EB3: 55k / 130k

If the back-log centers can really finish all these cases in FY 2007, even EB2-world will become retrogressed, so no more spill-overs, besides EB1->EB2 ROW
7% ceiling EB2/EB3 ~3k -> India EB2 / EB3: 8yrs / 10yrs.
-> March 2003 in EB2 India will take 2-4 years from now.

We need a bill, and we need it fast.


Good calc but with a BIG ASSUMPTION that USCIS uses logic in all this...:)

alien2006
08-28-2006, 03:43 PM
It is truly a waste of time trying to analyze these visa dates and how many visa numbers were issued for India and ROW. Just look at the previous years numbers. Why aren't the numbers consistent? Like why are the numbers for India changing every year so dramatically in some years? How come numbers are going from ROW to India (EB3) when ROW EB3 is also retrogressed? Why aren't numbers going from EB2 ROW to EB2 India likewise. It makes no sense. Until we know exactly how many cases are backlogged and the exact process of issuing visa numbers - like do the numbers go from Eb2 ROW to Eb2 <retro countries> first or does it go to Eb3 ROW first? Also when do these numbers move? September? No one seems to have answers for these questions