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dvb123
09-14-2010, 02:46 PM
Some greens pls

New Info about EB2 India

2009 10116
2008 14818
2007 6203
2006 3719
2005 16687
2004 16262
2003 8536
2002 21310
2001 21335
2000 7346

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY09AnnualReport_TableV.pdf
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CBIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Ftravel.state.gov%2Fpdf%2FFY07Annu alReportTableV.pdf&ei=n0uiTNaqGoGBlAfi6cjKBA&usg=AFQjCNHXcrTRgtbHIMqUnOBbIZJd2IQK5Q&sig2=-ujDuMfFI4qGaQbo3UEDgA
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CBcQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.travel.state.gov%2Fpdf%2FFY08-AR-TableV(Part2).pdf&ei=n0uiTNaqGoGBlAfi6cjKBA&usg=AFQjCNEeocEkArML0LPto1qpYxj1I2EeWg&sig2=TevHO5biQeRfnw8BHB8H9g


For the year 2009 these many green cards were issued

Eb1 + Eb2 Row = 75,478
Eb1 + Eb2 India = 17,277
Eb1 + Eb2 China = 8,608
Eb3 China: 2687
Eb3 India: 2987

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Analysis

Total Eb Green Cards Issued in 2009
Total: 144034
China: 11,295
India: 20,264

Since Eb3 does not have any spillover I always put the max value for India and China

Eb3 China: 2687
*300 Less than India due to the Chinese Student Protection act which reduces 300 numbers from EB3 category
Eb3 India: 2987


Eb1 + Eb2 India

Total India: 20,264
-Eb3 India: 2987
-------------------
17,277

Eb1 + Eb2 China

Total China: 11,295
-Eb3 China: 2687
--------------------
8,608

Eb1 + Eb2 Row

= Total Eb - Total eb3 - India (eb1+eb2) - China (Eb1+Eb2)
144034 - 42,671 - 17,277 - 8,608
= 75,478

Since Eb3 does not have any spillover I always put the max value.
Sources:

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/yearbook/2009/ois_yb_2009.pdf
Pg 27 divides by country of birth

I am pretty sure Eb2 India will cross Dec 2006 unless there is massive porting by sept 2011 from Eb3 to Eb2.

ravi.shah
09-14-2010, 03:00 PM
I am pretty sure Eb2 India will cross Dec 2007 unless there is massive porting from Eb3 to Eb2.

You mean to say by end of FY2011 ?

rodnyb
09-14-2010, 03:48 PM
There is almost no way to clear 34K for EB2I/C (PD before 07/2007) before Sept. 2011
We shall see 2010 DOS report (similar to 2009)
The total for EB2I would be about 19K, EB2C 8K
so about 27-30K max

You mean to say by end of FY2011 ?

belmontboy
09-14-2010, 04:11 PM
I am pretty sure Eb2 India will cross Dec 2007 unless there is massive porting from Eb3 to Eb2 by sept 2011.

Wishful thinking.

Looking at demand data EB2 - India+China from Jan 2006 - Dec 2007 = 52,000.

I don't think we are going to have a huge spillover in 2011 fiscal year.

ImmiRam
09-14-2010, 04:25 PM
Some greens pls

For the year 2009 these many green cards were issued
Eb3 India: 2987



Thanks for the info.

Long shot - any idea how many EB3 are pending (I458s + I140s waiting for PD to be current)?. Just trying to estimate with current rate of 3k EB3 per year, how long it will take to clear the backlog untill PD March 2010 :)

dvb123
09-15-2010, 01:31 PM
Thanks for the info.

Long shot - any idea how many EB3 are pending (I458s + I140s waiting for PD to be current)?. Just trying to estimate with current rate of 3k EB3 per year, how long it will take to clear the backlog untill PD March 2010 :)

No of Eb3 pending till Jan 2010 = 60,050
Total Wait time = 60,050 / 2,987 (annual quota for India Eb3) = 20 years (approx)

However a lot of ppl will lose jobs and their green card process doomed, move from eb3 to eb2, some will abandon their gc dream and go back to india. So 7-8 years would be the realistic timeline.

vvenkat007
09-19-2010, 07:43 PM
Any idea how many years will it take to Nov 2009 to be current in EB2 category.

dvb123
09-19-2010, 09:28 PM
Any idea how many years will it take to Nov 2009 to be current in EB2 category.

In 2007 13,125 485's are filed and pending
In 2008 9700 485's are filed and pending
In 2009 let us assume 8000 485's will be filed till november 2009

On an average 13000 EB2's are being issued per year. I don't have the exact source but I read that 5000 EB1 are issued for India and this may reduce to 4000 because I think universities are also having a crunch in grants, research and phd's being issued.

So total 485's pending till nov 2009 = 13,125 + 9700 + 8000 = 30825 (approx)
Total = 30825 / 13000 = 2.37 years

So by sept 2012 you can expect it to be current unless there is massive porting from eb3 to eb2. sept 2013 would be the worst case sceneario where you would expect it to be current.

vvenkat007
09-19-2010, 09:39 PM
In 2007 13,125 485's are filed and pending
In 2008 9700 485's are filed and pending
In 2009 let us assume 8000 485's will be filed till november 2009

On an average 13000 EB2's are being issued per year. I don't have the exact source but I read that 5000 EB1 are issued for India and this may reduce to 4000 because I think universities are also having a crunch in grants, research and phd's being issued.

So total 485's pending till nov 2009 = 13,125 + 9700 + 8000 = 30825 (approx)
Total = 30825 / 13000 = 2.37 years

So by sept 2012 you can expect it to be current unless there is massive porting from eb3 to eb2. sept 2013 would be the worst case sceneario where you would expect it to be current.

Thanks dvb123 for the analysis and quick reply. Apreciate it.

NH123
09-19-2010, 11:39 PM
In 2007 13,125 485's are filed and pending
In 2008 9700 485's are filed and pending
In 2009 let us assume 8000 485's will be filed till november 2009

On an average 13000 EB2's are being issued per year. I don't have the exact source but I read that 5000 EB1 are issued for India and this may reduce to 4000 because I think universities are also having a crunch in grants, research and phd's being issued.

So total 485's pending till nov 2009 = 13,125 + 9700 + 8000 = 30825 (approx)
Total = 30825 / 13000 = 2.37 years

So by sept 2012 you can expect it to be current unless there is massive porting from eb3 to eb2. sept 2013 would be the worst case sceneario where you would expect it to be current.

Is it possible for you to guess mine?Will i be able to file 485 in 2011.

dvb123
09-20-2010, 12:02 AM
Is it possible for you to guess mine?Will i be able to file 485 in 2011.

There is a good chance it will because DOS needs to count applications. They only have an inventory till july 2007. So they atleast move to August 2007 to get new 485's. But all depends on porting from eb3 to eb2.

Edison99
09-20-2010, 08:29 AM
dvb123, is anyway to tracking volume of porting EB3 to EB2

There is a good chance it will because DOS needs to count applications. They only have an inventory till july 2007. So they atleast move to August 2007 to get new 485's. But all depends on porting from eb3 to eb2.

dvb123
09-20-2010, 03:50 PM
dvb123, is anyway to tracking volume of porting EB3 to EB2

Unfortunately even USCIS does not know that. When your second i-140 is approved you usually have to inform uscis that you want to port. Otherwise USCIS does not know that.

Somebody can put a FOIA request to know this info but it may take a long long time.

dce.deepak
09-20-2010, 04:21 PM
Where did you get these figures from (are these for india only or china too..)

In 2007 13,125 485's are filed and pending ???
In 2008 9700 485's are filed and pending ???
In 2009 let us assume 8000 485's will be filed till november 2009 ???

what about after May 2006 for EB2 india.. How did get pending figure after August 2007. There is none pending after Aug 2007 because date was never current after July fiasco.

where did you get this number from ? "On an average 13000 EB2's are being issued per year"
I dont see the same from USCIS published data

dvb123
09-20-2010, 04:40 PM
Where did you get these figures from (are these for india only or china too..)

In 2007 13,125 485's are filed and pending ???
In 2008 9700 485's are filed and pending ???
In 2009 let us assume 8000 485's will be filed till november 2009 ???

what about after May 2006 for EB2 india.. How did get pending figure after August 2007. There is none pending after Aug 2007 because date was never current after July fiasco.

where did you get this number from ? "On an average 13000 EB2's are being issued per year"
I dont see the same from USCIS published data

I mentioned that 2009 data is an assumption. In one of the threads they mentioned the no of EB1 as 12,500. I put a rough estimate of 4000 per India and deducted from Eb1+eb2 India. Check the thread below.

http://murthyforum.atinfopop.com/4/OpenTopic?a=tpc&s=1024039761&f=7474050822&m=2441026691

seeethu
09-20-2010, 06:09 PM
Is it true that there can be only 3000 visas(approx) for EB3-India p.a.

dvb123
09-20-2010, 06:34 PM
Is it true that there can be only 3000 visas(approx) for EB3-India p.a.

Unfortunately it is true. With husband and wife only 1500 ppl are gettting gc per year. During Clinton ac21 law in 2001 he gave 130,000extra immigrant visa numbers which was exhausted in 2005. Otherwise eb3 would have remained in late 1990's. So there was a fiasco in July 2001 and again another one in July 2007.

Retrogression was an age old issue. It was there and it will be there.

June 2001 Visa Bulletin

http://www.vkblaw.com/archive/2001/june.htm

After the American Competitiveness in the 21st Century was passed all eb categories became current

July 2001 Bulletin

http://www.vkblaw.com/archive/2001/july.htm

This is an excerpt from August 2001 bulletin


As many readers have already noticed, all of the Employment-based IV categories have became "current" while all of the Family-sponsored categories have either retrogressed or become "unavailable".

Note that the Employment-based categories are "current" and are expected to remain "current" in the foreseeable future for the following reasons: 1) the FY-2001 Employment annual limit is at an all time high (approximately 190,000); 2) the American Competitiveness in the 21st Century Act removed the per-country limit if there were otherwise unused numbers available, and 3) this Act also established a "pool" of (approximately 130,000) unused Employment-based numbers from FY-1999 and FY-2000 that could be used if the annual Employment numerical limit is reached

belmontboy
09-20-2010, 06:34 PM
Is it true that there can be only 3000 visas(approx) for EB3-India p.a.

yup.

dvb123
09-28-2010, 04:14 PM
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