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leoindiano
03-17-2008, 11:02 AM
Substitute labors for EB2 should not IMPACT the delay more than 3 to 6 months. The reason is total EB2 labor india cases approved with PD in 2004 itself is 3500(Straight out of DOL database, published on this forum last year). Some of these cases may have been substituted, worst case, lets say 100% of them applied to I-485. Now the number is 3 times that of 3500. that is 10500(including spouse and 1 child on average).

Another thing you need to consider is If anycase had a PD before sept 2004 and was filed for I-485 before July 2007. That must have got the approval unless there was a namecheck delay.

That should reduce the number to half., 5500(including dependent cases). This is my educated guess, Please dont pick on me. It wont help anybody.

Below are 3 categories left in 2004 as per my analysis....

1) the applications filed in or after july 2007 OR
2) applications had a PD after sept 2004
3) Namecheck delayed cases.

BharatPremi
03-17-2008, 11:26 AM
Substitute labors for EB2 should not IMPACT the delay more than 3 to 6 months. The reason is total EB2 labor india cases approved with PD in 2004 itself is 3500(Straight out of DOL database, published on this forum last year). Some of these cases may have been substituted, worst case, lets say 100% of them applied to I-485. Now the number is 3 times that of 3500. that is 10500(including spouse and 1 child on average).

Another thing you need to consider is If anycase had a PD before sept 2004 and was filed for I-485 before July 2007. That must have got the approval unless there was a namecheck delay.

That should reduce the number to half., 5500(including dependent cases). This is my educated guess, Please dont pick on me. It wont help anybody.

Below are 3 categories left in 2004 as per my analysis....

1) the applications filed in or after july 2007 OR
2) applications had a PD after sept 2004
3) Namecheck delayed cases.


Your flow of logic is correct but you ar ebuilding this palace on soft land...:). Your "numbers" base is way way small... There are thousands of EB2 switch over occured and there are thousands and thousands of applications are waiting in EB2. If you add up thosands and thousands then you can reach million speedly.. right? Only July 2007 filing was around 500000. You just apply crude maths: 500000/3 (Categories) = So EB2 numbers are = 1,66,667.
Now divide 1,66,667/5 ( IN,CHina,MX, Philipines,ROW, assuming equal number of each country category applied during july though in reality max. applicants should have been from China and India) = 33333. That is just for July 2007. Now to scare you more let me tell you that there was number around during July 2007 in all immigration boards that around 500000 applications are stuck in the process including Name Check (No claim on accuracy of that number but pretty much bignames were talking about that number so generally you would trust that number.) So now start applying your logic andyou would realize the seriousness of the problem.

vjkypally
03-17-2008, 11:40 AM
You cant just divide 500000 by 3. The numbers are not same for all categories.Your flow of logic is correct but you ar ebuilding this palace on soft land...:). Your "numbers" base is way way small... There are thousands of EB2 switch over occured and there are thousands and thousands of applications are waiting in EB2. If you add up thosands and thousands then you can reach million speedly.. right? Only July 2007 filing was around 500000. You just apply crude maths: 500000/3 (Categories) = So EB2 numbers are = 1,66,667.
Now divide 1,66,667/5 ( IN,CHina,MX, Philipines,ROW) = 33333. That is just for July 2007. Now to scare you more let me tell you that there was number around during July 2007 in all immigration boards that around 500000 applications are stuck in the process including Name Check (No claim on accuracy of that number but pretty much bignames were talking about that number so generally you would trust that number.) So now start applying your logic andyou would realize the seriousness of the problem.

leoindiano
03-17-2008, 11:45 AM
and years too...I am talking about cases with india-2004-PD only.

EB3 to EB2 porting, we can worry less about that. these cases needs quite a research. and USCIS capabilities in that area are open for debate....they look for low hanging fruits(read as straight-forward cases) which are easy to be approved...

IN2US
03-17-2008, 12:21 PM
Your flow of logic is correct but you ar ebuilding this palace on soft land...:). Your "numbers" base is way way small... There are thousands of EB2 switch over occured and there are thousands and thousands of applications are waiting in EB2. If you add up thosands and thousands then you can reach million speedly.. right? Only July 2007 filing was around 500000. You just apply crude maths: 500000/3 (Categories) = So EB2 numbers are = 1,66,667.
Now divide 1,66,667/5 ( IN,CHina,MX, Philipines,ROW) = 33333. That is just for July 2007. Now to scare you more let me tell you that there was number around during July 2007 in all immigration boards that around 500000 applications are stuck in the process including Name Check (No claim on accuracy of that number but pretty much bignames were talking about that number so generally you would trust that number.) So now start applying your logic andyou would realize the seriousness of the problem.


no offense but the above doesn't make any sense what so ever, so does majority of your posts.
and stop pretending to be a guru on immigration issues and leave the analysis part to the real experts.

Peace :)

GCnew
03-17-2008, 01:05 PM
I have a priority date of March 2004 (EB2 India) and I am still waiting for my Green Card. I think majority of the 2004 filers are in the same boat except for a lucky few who were able to get the green card after the July fiasco.

So don't buildup your hopes too high. I firmly beleive that very soon there will be a repeat of what we saw last year in July and the green cards will be distributed once again out of order.

So if you are one of those luck ones, you might get it.

Good Luck!!

leoindiano
03-17-2008, 01:35 PM
I have a priority date of March 2004 (EB2 India) and I am still waiting for my Green Card. I think majority of the 2004 filers are in the same boat except for a lucky few who were able to get the green card after the July fiasco.

So don't buildup your hopes too high. I firmly beleive that very soon there will be a repeat of what we saw last year in July and the green cards will be distributed once again out of order.

So if you are one of those luck ones, you might get it.

Good Luck!!

You must have applied for I-485 after july 1st, correct?

GCnew
03-17-2008, 01:45 PM
No. I sent my application in June. It was received on June 19th.

Its good to be optmisitic but one thing I have learnt after waiting for so long for my green card is that this process is so screwed up that you can never expected anything that would follow a common sense of logic.

leoindiano
03-17-2008, 01:50 PM
I agree, I wanted to take everybodys perspective on my guess. Also, 2004 is the only year which can be predictable, after that everything went haywire for EB2.

GCwaitforever
03-17-2008, 01:53 PM
First we need to make sure all BEC cases from 2001-2003 are processed. Then only we can speculate on EB2 India 2004. When USCIS publishes end-of-year stats for 2007, we will know more about the situation.

----------------------
PD: May 2002 EB2 India
I-485 applied May 2007

NKR
03-17-2008, 02:02 PM
I have a priority date of March 2004 (EB2 India) and I am still waiting for my Green Card. I think majority of the 2004 filers are in the same boat except for a lucky few who were able to get the green card after the July fiasco.

Good Luck!!

I agree. Remember there were two backlog elimination centers and the processing from Philly center was slow. So a person with a later 2004 EB2 PD application and whose LC was cleared from Dallas must have got his GC where as someone with an earlier PD was stuck in Philly. Most of the Dallas guys got their GC around that time.

abracadabra102
03-17-2008, 02:27 PM
no offense but the above doesn't make any sense what so ever, so does majority of your posts.
and stop pretending to be a guru on immigration issues and leave the analysis part to the real experts.

Peace :)

LOL. You are spot on.

nb_des
03-17-2008, 02:33 PM
I agree. Remember there were two backlog elimination centers and the processing from Philly center was slow. So a person with a later 2004 EB2 PD application and whose LC was cleared from Dallas must have got his GC where as someone with an earlier PD was stuck in Philly. Most of the Dallas guys got their GC around that time.

That is so not true. Even though Dallas was faster than Philly, it only cleared labor for 2003 and earlier filers in 2005. Essentially Dallas mostly cleared only those cases in 2005 which were stuck at regional and not state level. My labor was cleared in late 2006.

BharatPremi
03-17-2008, 03:35 PM
You cant just divide 500000 by 3. The numbers are not same for all categories.

Eb1-3 all are granted 28% and I am assuming there as equal number of applications in each category though it would not be the case in reality but I was just giving a crude math example.This 500000 load was from EB1/2/3 only.In reality it is more scary for EB2/3 India particular last july filing as most filings should have been from EB2/3- China and India considering the H1 arrivals from these 2 countries during the year 2003-7. And yet in that example I did not mirror USCIS's limits such as 7%, load from previous filing which is not yet clear. Bottom line EB2 with 2004 PD will have to see a long road before becoming current.

sapota
03-17-2008, 04:02 PM
That is so not true. Even though Dallas was faster than Philly, it only cleared labor for 2003 and earlier filers in 2005. Essentially Dallas mostly cleared only those cases in 2005 which were stuck at regional and not state level. My labor was cleared in late 2006.

I know cos I am one such unfortunate case.