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raddala
01-12-2011, 09:37 PM
As it stands now (Oct, 2010) we have ~17500 pending 485 applications.
EB1-> 9000
EB2-> 46,000
Eb3-> 116,000

Scenario A:
Fact-> All of these pending 485 applications will be cleared in 3 years.
Why?
We have 140000/year. Assume we have 65,000 new 485 apps from ROW (this is the worst case scenario). By this simple fact, every year the total pending will reduce by 75000 (140K - 65K). This implies that pending applications will be 0 within 2.5 years.

Scenario B: Eb2
EB2-India
In 2009, we had 47728
In 2010 we have 24254 (23,474 EB2-I got approved)

EB2-China
In 2009, we had 19333
In 2010 we have 11404 (8000 EB2-C got approved)

By this simple fact, EB2 will be current by end of 2011

smuggymba
01-12-2011, 09:49 PM
As it stands now (Oct, 2010) we have ~17500 pending 485 applications.
EB1-> 9000
EB2-> 46,000
Eb3-> 116,000

Scenario A:
Fact-> All of these pending 485 applications will be cleared in 3 years.
Why?
We have 140000/year. Assume we have 65,000 new 485 apps from ROW (this is the worst case scenario). By this simple fact, every year the total pending will reduce by 75000 (140K - 65K). This implies that pending applications will be 0 within 2.5 years.

Scenario B: Eb2
EB2-India
In 2009, we had 47728
In 2010 we have 24254 (23,474 EB2-I got approved)

EB2-China
In 2009, we had 19333
In 2010 we have 11404 (8000 EB2-C got approved)

By this simple fact, EB2 will be current by end of 2011

...........and what happens to the new apps which are being filed and will be filed?

ajaysri
01-12-2011, 11:49 PM
I do not understand. If so be the case, why in all the forums we read that these backlogs will not be cleared for years to come. May be you are misinterpreting the law?

bpratap
01-13-2011, 01:58 AM
What about the New Applications coming in for EB-1,EB2 ?

there lots of people who missed to file I-485 in July 2007.


As it stands now (Oct, 2010) we have ~17500 pending 485 applications.
EB1-> 9000
EB2-> 46,000
Eb3-> 116,000

Scenario A:
Fact-> All of these pending 485 applications will be cleared in 3 years.
Why?
We have 140000/year. Assume we have 65,000 new 485 apps from ROW (this is the worst case scenario). By this simple fact, every year the total pending will reduce by 75000 (140K - 65K). This implies that pending applications will be 0 within 2.5 years.

Scenario B: Eb2
EB2-India
In 2009, we had 47728
In 2010 we have 24254 (23,474 EB2-I got approved)

EB2-China
In 2009, we had 19333
In 2010 we have 11404 (8000 EB2-C got approved)

By this simple fact, EB2 will be current by end of 2011

thomachan72
01-13-2011, 07:14 AM
As it stands now (Oct, 2010) we have ~17500 pending 485 applications.
EB1-> 9000
EB2-> 46,000
Eb3-> 116,000

Scenario A:
Fact-> All of these pending 485 applications will be cleared in 3 years.
Why?
We have 140000/year. Assume we have 65,000 new 485 apps from ROW (this is the worst case scenario). By this simple fact, every year the total pending will reduce by 75000 (140K - 65K). This implies that pending applications will be 0 within 2.5 years.

Scenario B: Eb2
EB2-India
In 2009, we had 47728
In 2010 we have 24254 (23,474 EB2-I got approved)

EB2-China
In 2009, we had 19333
In 2010 we have 11404 (8000 EB2-C got approved)

By this simple fact, EB2 will be current by end of 2011
Your logic is so apealing that it almost looks like a posting on the Mumbai US consulate:D:D
Now they are onto May 2006 applications for EB2. They still have enough cases (until July 07) with them to clear. It would be a miracle if they do that by the end of this year. However, I strongly feel that they could move it forward to mid 2007 by the end of 2011 for EB2. For EB3 2011 might not bring much relief, however, starting 2012 we should start to see strong forward movements.
Lets hope for the best. Once in a while hopefully the Mumbain consulate will keep us entertained along the way:D:D

krishmunn
01-13-2011, 09:24 AM
EB2 -I will very likely move to Aug/Sept 2007 by August/Sept 2011. I am hoping to file my 485 before my next H1 renewal (2013).

gcFiler08
01-13-2011, 11:28 AM
EB2 -I will very likely move to Aug/Sept 2007 by August/Sept 2011. I am hoping to file my 485 before my next H1 renewal (2013).

I dont think so. It will be more like July/August 2012

thomachan72
01-13-2011, 11:50 AM
EB2 -I will very likely move to Aug/Sept 2007 by August/Sept 2011. I am hoping to file my 485 before my next H1 renewal (2013).

If they pass the July 2007 filers then they dont have any applications pending with them other than the EB3 porters right? They will then have to open up the doors once again to ensure adequate numbers are recieved. Again my guess. Either way the critical thing is to reach the July 2007 level. That might be several thousands away? Dont know how many though...

amitjoey
01-13-2011, 12:27 PM
These numbers only reflect primary applicants, remember there are also dependants that also get counted against the cap.

PlainSpeak
01-13-2011, 01:04 PM
These numbers only reflect primary applicants, remember there are also dependants that also get counted against the cap.
I would assume the pending apps count include all derivates app also. So the pending count is the final count pf pending apps

The following caluclation was done using Demand Data Used in the Determination of the February 2011 Employment Preference Cut-Off Dates document as provided in IV forum.

With EB2i having 13150 apps in pipeline as of Jan 2007 this load without spillover will be cleared in 13150/2800 = 4.5 years. Of course with spillover that number will reduce but how much i am not sure since i am not sure how much spillover EB2 is expecting. If you browse the forum you will come across posts of EB2 guys gigddly doing the calculation and predicting stuff about spillover count. They might be able to tell how much spillover is going to happen

With EB3i having 54,850 apps in pipeline as of Jan 2007 this load will be cleared in 54,850/2800 = 19 years. Since EB2 will be using the spill over if any (as stated above) EB3 will not get spillover so 19 years is the final count

Of course EB2 could become current and EB3 might get spillover visas but there is no gaurentee that more people will NOT apply in EB2. So that spill over route is closed

Removing county count will through all the above cal;culations to the wind since older priority dates will get spill over visas but this comes with 2 caveats
1. The fact that there is a real possibility of this happening in the first place since it is enshrined in the immigration law
2. The fact that China and other countries wil not try their own advocacy to halt this as this would impact them most

Retreving Unused visa from previous year.
1. The chances of this happening are better than country cap removal but this needs legislation too and we know how congress is with immigration legislation
2. But in case this happens
- a. If it happens with caveats such as but not limited to US educated GC applicants or EB2 applicants first (Yes this is possible and is not something which will NEVER happen) EB3 will never get spill over because the retrogression happening currently will happen again down the line and a whole bunch of EB2 applicants will have first right over the visas. in that case EB3 caluclations are same
- b. If it happens with NO caveats then the visa wil spill over to EB3. How many visas wil be based on how many were recovered in first place

Of course all these calculation are not even talking about EB3 ROW demand. This demand if it increases will keep EB3 calculation to same (19 years for Jan 2007) or even worse

krishmunn
01-13-2011, 01:29 PM
I dont think so. It will be more like July/August 2012

My calculation is based on the fact that there are around 35K pending EB2 cases between China and India till July 2007. Given that EB4 and EB 5 has a low demand , we will probably get at least 12K from those. Add to that the spill over from EB 1 and EB 2 ROW + 5600 quota from China + India , EB 2 should cross July 2007 by end of this fiscal. Historically , I think we have got around 35 - 40 K spill over (in last quarter) during last few year .

To amitjoye, Pending EB inventory (released by USCIS) include dependants also. It says Pending 485 inventory -- not 140 inventory

krishmunn
01-13-2011, 01:31 PM
If they pass the July 2007 filers then they dont have any applications pending with them other than the EB3 porters right? They will then have to open up the doors once again to ensure adequate numbers are recieved. Again my guess. Either way the critical thing is to reach the July 2007 level. That might be several thousands away? Dont know how many though...

That is around 35K for China + India (EB 2) based on 485 pending inventory

808hiflip
01-13-2011, 04:55 PM
I'm just hanging onto this one piece of law from USCIS that keeps me from being positive of getting positive result this year. My EAD just been approved again after renewing. Im supppose to get 2 yr extension but to my surprise, I got 1 yr. At first I was angry for not given 2 yrs. I ask myself, why would USCIS would give someone 1 yr and others 2 yrs? I found out, getting 1 yr of extension is not bad actually, its a hint, a good hint. This is what I fount out from USCIS EAD Fact Sheet:

How will USCIS decide whether to issue an EAD valid for one or two years?

USCIS will decide whether to renew an EAD for either a one or two-year validity period based on the most recent Department of State Visa Bulletin available at http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html. If an applicant’s visa number has retrogressed and is unavailable, USCIS may issue a renewal EAD valid for two years. USCIS will continue to issue the EAD in one-year increments when the Department of State Visa Bulletin shows an employment-based preference category is current as a whole or the applicant’s priority date is current.

Can be found on this link:

USCIS - Fact Sheet: USCIS to Issue Two-Year Employment Authorization Documents (EADS)<br/><i>New EADs Limited to Certain Individuals Who Have Applied for LPR Status</i> (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=62ae15d3ffd7a110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=68439c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD)

Nothing really is certain, I'm just hoping that being handed a 1 yr, they will be true to their fact sheet and finally getting my freedom and smile on my face. Peace to everybody and there's always hope. Goodluck to all!

krishmunn
01-13-2011, 05:29 PM
My calculation is based on the fact that there are around 35K pending EB2 cases between China and India till July 2007. Given that EB4 and EB 5 has a low demand , we will probably get at least 12K from those. Add to that the spill over from EB 1 and EB 2 ROW + 5600 quota from China + India , EB 2 should cross July 2007 by end of this fiscal. Historically , I think we have got around 35 - 40 K spill over (in last quarter) during last few year .

To amitjoye, Pending EB inventory (released by USCIS) include dependants also. It says Pending 485 inventory -- not 140 inventory

I was wrong. I checked again the historical 485 inventory data. Based on historical data, EB 2 I will probably move to Jan/Feb 2007 by Jul/aug 2011 and to Apr/May 2008 by July/aug 2012

H1B_CIVIL_ENGINEER
01-13-2011, 05:44 PM
Does the spillover happen only from EB-4, EB-5 to Eb-1 and then to Eb2 within each country's quota or is cross-country spillover also possible? Also, in case of India, are there usually Family based cases left over to spill to EB? How did Eb2 India get 24000 approvals?