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Law Loving Alien
10-02-2006, 10:11 AM
Article from shusterman.com

As recently as December 2004, all employment-based (EB) categories for permanent residence were "current". That is, there were no backlogs.
That all started to change in January 2005 when the EB-3 category (professionals and skilled workers) backlogged three years. These backlogs are referred to as the "retrogression".

The retrogression has gradually gotten worse during the past 21 months. The October 2006 State Department Visa Bulletin reveals that the EB-3 category has now retrogressed almost 4 1/2 years. The backlogs are even greater for persons born in India and Mexico. Even the EB-2 category for advanced-degreed professionals has backlogged for persons born in India and China. See


http://shusterman.com/vb.html

In the absence of congressional action, the retrogression will get worse, probably a lot worse, before it gets better. Why?
In May 2005, President Bush, recognizing the tremendous shortage of nurses and therapists, signed a bill which "recaptured" 50,000 immigrant visas for Schedule A professionals, primarily registered nurses, physical therapists and their family members. By the end of this month, all 50,000 visas will be used up. What will happen to RNs and PTs who are still in line for green cards and those who will apply for permanent residence in the future? They will be added to the EB-3 backlog which will result in increased waiting times, perhaps to five years or more.

The total number of persons who are permitted to obtain permanent residence each year in the employment-based categories is only 140,000. Adding another 30,000 - 50,000 to the current backlogs will certainly make the retrogression more severe.

Even more problematic are the 300,000+ applications for labor certification currently pending in the Labor Department's (DOL's) Backlog Elimination Centers. DOL has pledged to take action on each of these applications within the next 18 months. Even if only 200,000 of these applications are ultimately approved, if 50% of the applicants have a spouse and one child, the number of green cards needed to accommodate them would total 300,000. This is more than double the annual cap on EB green cards. Therefore, this has the potential to make the EB-2 and EB-3 numbers regress another two years.

Finally, present laws contain hard per-country caps. This means that countries like India and China which have populations of over one billion persons each have exactly the same quotas as Monaco and Mauritius, two tiny countries which supply the U.S. with virtually no immigrants. Given that most H-1B professionals are born in India and China, the per-country quotas will exaggerate the retrogression for persons born in these countries.

If high-skilled immigrants could only come to U.S. or remain in their own countries, our country could afford to continue this backward, "Let them eat Chicken McNuggets!" approach. But various European countries, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the Persian Gulf countries are all competing for these talented individuals. Even Germany, the great bastion for engineers is seeing the number of German students studying engineering fall precipitously.

It is in our national interest to make our country the principal destination for computer professionals and scientists, for nurses, teachers and therapists, and for businessmen and physicians from all over the world.

The Senate immigration bill (S.2611) would have greatly expanded both the outdated employment and family-based immigration systems and eased the per-country limitations. Unfortunately, House Republicans, worried that they might lose their majority in the mid-term elections, refused to negotiate a compromise bill with the Senate.

Perhaps, in the "lame duck" session of Congress which will occur after the November elections, reason will prevail and Congress will pass amendments to fix our legal immigration system.

But just in case, be sure to keep the heat on members of Congress, and perhaps, they will see the light.

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The bottom line is this Retrogession Mess is going to worsened at unimaginizable level in near future and will effect almost everybody even those who are not effected today......:mad: :mad: :mad:

abhaykul
10-02-2006, 11:01 AM
I know a few professionals who have PD's current or near current, they don't care for IV OR for its efforts.This is a wake up call for people like them ! Guys, unite and contribute who knows you could have PD from yr 2000 and still not get GC for years, if we don't act. Who knows, you may get stuck in name search or USCIS could lose your file !

csvinay
10-02-2006, 12:13 PM
I know! I read the same article. I don't know how far the prediction are right but it did scare the hell out of me. One thing is becoming very clear.... Temp fixes won't hold for too long... A good bill with a long term view on legal immigrants is the only way to clear up the this whole mess. And we need active participation by all of us. We are becoming sitting ducks waiting for these "lame duck" sessions.

alterego
10-02-2006, 12:51 PM
What about this thing is so shocking to you all?

As far as I am concerned he has not raised any points in that which has not been discussed on this forum previously. Perhaps, those that are so shocked by these "developments" had their heads in the sand all along.

The facts are that those from EB India are screwed the worst. If your PD is 2003 or after you will literally have to wait behind about 300K to 500K people for dates to even reach 2003. EB ROW will have to become current before EB India starts to see approvals even through those backlog cases, since at its annual 10K quota you do the math. PDs will move back for EB India for sure in the upcoming bulletins, just look at EB2 India if you have any doubts.

All in all, EB India needs reform. Full stop. If your PD is in 2003 or after, then do not even dream far less think of any other alternative before 5-7 yrs. Plan accordingly and support accordingly what you would like.

And for heavens sake stop acting surprised. WAKE UP atleast now.

pappu
10-02-2006, 01:27 PM
This problem is going to grow with time and with backlog centers approving labor applications. Thus the IV emphasis on aggressively continuing our efforts and getting more membership and funding.

sands_14
10-02-2006, 01:46 PM
What is the plan of IV now that the Senate passed Bill was rejected by Congress.Do we think,they will pass it in any form after the November elections?

qplearn
10-02-2006, 02:29 PM
Article from shusterman.com

Finally, some good analysis with numbers. This should make it clear how bad the situation is. We are all waiting for the lame duck session now.

qplearn

eb3India
10-02-2006, 02:31 PM
I don't see how it can get even worest,

so what will be the dates, jan 1900 for India

anurakt
10-02-2006, 02:50 PM
I don't see how it can get even worest,

so what will be the dates, jan 1900 for India


No,

But they can make it unavailable for next 10years..... Do you know what I mean ? It can be equal to 1900 for all categories.... Not only India.

qplearn
10-02-2006, 02:54 PM
I don't see how it can get even worest,

so what will be the dates, jan 1900 for India

If Shusterman's figures are correct, and I have no doubt they are, EB-2 India will become unavailable by the Jan 2007 bulletin. That's how it will get worse.

dixie
10-02-2006, 02:57 PM
Things have only been getting worse since last october .. it is not inconceivable that EB3 dates will retrogress further or go unavailable for years together if schedule A workers are added to the backlog.

I don't see how it can get even worest,

so what will be the dates, jan 1900 for India

qplearn
10-02-2006, 02:59 PM
Things have only been getting worse since last october .. it is not inconceivable that EB3 dates will retrogress further or go unavailable for years together if schedule A workers are added to the backlog.

I think the schedule A will not spare EB-2 either; actually, EB-2 will be affected more.

imcdude
10-02-2006, 03:24 PM
Retrogression is about to get worse???

Wow who would have expected this?

GCBy3000
10-02-2006, 03:25 PM
Well said alterego.

The same exact thing is discussed in this forum several hundred times. May be these people come once in a while when they get bored and post some messages and then disappear.

Nurses are going to take up the entire EB3 quota every year and it is going to be stuck in April 22 for long time. May be forever... until some reform is done in the immigration system. So guys wake up at least now and contribute to IV and be a active member.

I think the schedule A will not spare EB-2 either; actually, EB-2 will be affected more.

qplearn
10-02-2006, 03:49 PM
Well said alterego.

The same exact thing is discussed in this forum several hundred times. May be these people come once in a while when they get bored and post some messages and then disappear.

Nurses are going to take up the entire EB3 quota every year and it is going to be stuck in April 22 for long time. May be forever... until some reform is done in the immigration system. So guys wake up at least now and contribute to IV and be a active member.

Shusterman speaks about EB-2 as well. BTW, I am not sure when nurses were discussed last on this forum, although I do come here quite often. Even if I missed that, there is no reason to be rude. Shusterman's newsletter does have an analysis of numbers that makes the picture clear. And for some dumb people like me, it helps to see this kind of analysis. ;)

nb_des
10-02-2006, 04:00 PM
Why would Schedule A effect EB2? I thought that effects only EB3.

qplearn
10-02-2006, 04:28 PM
Why would Schedule A effect EB2? I thought that effects only EB3.

There is a total fixed amount allocated to EB India unless I am mistaken. Last year many with PDs behind mine got approved under Schedule A (that's how things work when you have to stand in multiple queues!). So the quota for EB is a constraint.

BTW, Shusterman did not say Schedule A will hurt EB-2. He said that the cleared labor backlog will slow down the whole process. The backlog will be cleared gradually by 09/07. By Jan 2007, EB-2 India will probably become unavailable, or as Shusteman says EB-2 India will go back to 2000, --- unless, of course, something passes in the lame duck session, which we need to do something about.

nb_des
10-02-2006, 04:34 PM
I agree because of labor backlog EB2 may go back furthur. Howevere Schedule A will only use numbers from EB3 and not EB2. Of course in the end some of the unused visa numbers go to EB2 which might be effected with Schedule A

qplearn
10-02-2006, 04:41 PM
I agree because of labor backlog EB2 may go back furthur. Howevere Schedule A will only use numbers from EB3 and not EB2. Of course in the end some of the unused visa numbers go to EB2 which might be effected with Schedule A
Precisely my point. Until recently, EB-1 benefitted from unused EB-2 and EB-2 from unused EB-3. Since EB-3 is retrogressed (although at one time EB-2 actually looked worse than EB-3, when EB-2 became unavailable), it is not clear if there will be any such benefits any more for a long time.

Also, India is unlikely to get the total number it got last year, although this is not for certain, and one always hopes for the best. So that may cause a further reduction in capacity.

purethoughts
10-02-2006, 04:56 PM
Precisely my point. Until recently, EB-1 benefitted from unused EB-2 and EB-2 from unused EB-3. Since EB-3 is retrogressed (although at one time EB-2 looked worse than EB-3 when EB-2 became unavailable), it is not clear if there will be any such benefits any more for a long time.

Also, India is unlikely to get the total number it got last year, although this is not for certian, and one always hopes for the best. So that may cause a further reduction in capacity.

If you remember the July 2005 bulletin you can see how the retrogression became worse. In that bulletin USCIS clearly declared that they are going to take away the unused 50,000 visa numbers from the 91-94 years and allocate that to the schedule A workers. All the people from the EB3 category just sat on that news and now we are paying for that dearly. I think that it should be our number one goal to get as many visa numbers as possible to be allocated to EB category. IV should not waste its resources in supporting impossible amendments for any big immigration bills but rather win small fights first.

qplearn
10-02-2006, 05:01 PM
If you remember the July 2005 bulletin you can see how the retrogression became worse. In that bulletin USCIS clearly declared that they are going to take away the unused 50,000 visa numbers from the 91-94 years and allocate that to the schedule A workers. All the people from the EB3 category just sat on that news and now we are paying for that dearly. I think that it should be our number one goal to get as many visa numbers as possible to be allocated to EB category. IV should not waste its resources in supporting impossible amendments for any big immigration bills but rather win small fights first.

Also, what is discouraging is that some of these Schedule A folks who got approved have PDs behind those in regular EB-3, in fact, also behind those in EB-2. Clearly, nurses are a priority to the govt.

alterego
10-02-2006, 05:09 PM
Precisely my point. Until recently, EB-1 benefitted from unused EB-2 and EB-2 from unused EB-3. Since EB-3 is retrogressed (although at one time EB-2 looked worse than EB-3 when EB-2 became unavailable), it is not clear if there will be any such benefits any more for a long time.

Also, India is unlikely to get the total number it got last year, although this is not for certain, and one always hopes for the best. So that may cause a further reduction in capacity.

In one of the previous bulletins when retrogression hit severely, the footnotes in the bulletin itself stated that EB india will be limited to no greater than 7% of the 140K annual cap ie about 10K visas. Thats exactly what they did last year. So why are we speculating if that is what they will do again this year, what is any different now? Take that as cast in stone.

All along the hope for EB2 India had nothing to do with the India quota at all. It was based on the idea of spillover. It was thought that EB1 spilled over to EB2 and EB2 ROW spillover would then go to EB2 India as the previous 2 categories remain current. In other words, since EB1 and EB2 ROW are seldom oversubscribed there was thought to be hope for EB2 India. Most people thought(I certainly did) that spillover went laterally within an EB category before it went downward a category. From what we are seeing happen to EB2 India that is not so, and they said it was an AC21 provision that was being suspended. They are moving spare visas to EB3 ROW ahead of EB2 India. I do not know this for sure, but the figures that come out end of the year should allow us to conclude this for sure. I am not sure where the law is on this but is perhaps a good question to ask the lawyer at the next conference call.

Hence my conclusion that EB3 ROW needs to get current before any real movement would be seen either in EB2 or EB3 India, and even then the movement will take a while to catch up to Jan1st 2003 as clearly there is quite a bit of demand before that (between 245i filings, substitute labours, BEC cases etc). If your PD is 2003 or after then hope, pray and contribute or sit tight for 5-7 yrs whatever your EBIndia category is really irrelevant. Some of you taking the risk of switching EB categories ought to consider this in your thoughts also.

purethoughts
10-02-2006, 05:10 PM
If you see in a logical case then when the 50,000 visa numbers are allocated to other category it is actualy reducing the overall quota of the country limit set by the law. Lets say that the unused 50K numbers were allocated to other category and used for the people from other countries. What the government is actually doing is not giving us our fair share of the visa numbers allocated to us by law(the mere 7%) and the reason we cannot do anything about it is because we are from the developing country and we are 'weak' and 'not supposed to talk back'.

I think that is the reason behind all this problems.

pappu
10-02-2006, 05:11 PM
If you remember t
Hello purethoughts. you seem to have your own blog and forum that you advertised in your signature. pls. try to post information about immigration voice so that more users can join IV. you can also post our banner ads on your blog.
http://immigrationvoice.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=65&Itemid=36

I would encourage others to help us by posting banners and posters on your own sites, blogs etc. If you know of other sites or have contacts with them pls help us by contacting them to post our banners. We need everybody's help in order to succeed.

gg_ny
10-02-2006, 05:11 PM
http://www.aacn.nche.edu/Media/Backgrounders/shortagefacts.htm

Nurses are in demand as never before and even friends at numberUSA would agree to the facts that "US does not produce enough trained nurses" and that the "demand for nurses is more than what is available in terms of home-trained AND imported from abroad via immigration". Period. Unlike engineers and researchers, the society wants a given trained nurse for a loooong period of time, something that could mainly be achieved only by greencard but not H1B or equivalents.

A Clearly, nurses are a priority to the govt.

purethoughts
10-02-2006, 05:15 PM
Hence my conclusion that EB3 ROW needs to get current before any real movement would be seen either in EB2 or EB3 India, and even then the movement will take a while to catch up to Jan1st 2003. If your PD is after that, hope, pray and contribute or sit tight for 5-7 yrs whatever your EBIndia category.

One more option is to apply for the canadian GC, find a smaller job there and move your case for counsular processing. By the time you get your GC for US, you will be the canadian citizen, your family will have the canadian GC as well and you can send the US GC with a polite note that says "The applicant of this benefit is resting in peace inside the canadian border." ;) ;)

qplearn
10-02-2006, 05:16 PM
In one of the previous bulletins when retrogression hit severely, the footnotes in the bulletin itself stated that EB india will be limited to no greater than 7% of the 140K annual cap ie about 10K visas. Thats exactly what they did last year.

Last year (2005), I think India got a bigger number than the 7%. Those numbers are available somewhere. Someone please correct me if I am wrong here. But like I said, that is not likely to happen this year because of retro in ROW.

I would encourage others to help us by posting banners and posters on your own sites, blogs etc.

Will do this on my blog too.

purethoughts
10-02-2006, 05:27 PM
Hello purethoughts. you seem to have your own blog and forum that you advertised in your signature. pls. try to post information about immigration voice so that more users can join IV. you can also post our banner ads on your blog.
http://immigrationvoice.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=65&Itemid=36

I would encourage others to help us by posting banners and posters on your own sites, blogs etc. If you know of other sites or have contacts with them pls help us by contacting them to post our banners. We need everybody's help in order to succeed.

Hi Pappu,

There you go...http://www.nritalk.com/

I did change the banner a little bit to make it "suitable" for my site, i do not think it will hurt anyone but USCIS !!

pappu
10-02-2006, 05:33 PM
Hi Pappu,

There you go...http://www.nritalk.com/

I did change the banner a little bit to make it "suitable" for my site, i do not think it will hurt anyone but USCIS !!
Sweet :)

Thanks a lot.
Others pls. post on the forum once you have posted the banner so that others can get inspired and follow suit.

alterego
10-02-2006, 06:09 PM
Last year (2005), I think India got a bigger number than the 7%. Those numbers are available somewhere. Someone please correct me if I am wrong here. But like I said, that is not likely to happen this year because of retro in ROW.



Will do this on my blog too.


I was referring to last year as 2006. We are currently in the 2007 fiscal year. 2006 was limited to 7% was what they said. Those stats willl be forthcoming in Jan 2007 and then we will know for sure.

BostonGCVictim
10-03-2006, 02:59 PM
If Schedule-A numbers are used up, won't the nurses and physical therapists be in the same queue as EB3 (or EB2)? In that case their PD will be much later than many of the people already stuck in the EB queue. I think most nurses would have a PD of 2005 or so and they will have to wait for 4+ years to get in any new nurses.

katewill
10-03-2006, 04:24 PM
If Schedule-A numbers are used up, won't the nurses and physical therapists be in the same queue as EB3 (or EB2)? In that case their PD will be much later than many of the people already stuck in the EB queue. I think most nurses would have a PD of 2005 or so and they will have to wait for 4+ years to get in any new nurses.
BostonGCVictim,
do you know since when schedule A numbers seperated from EB3?
is 50K number annual or just one time action?

JazzByTheBay
10-05-2006, 11:00 AM
One more option is to apply for the canadian GC, find a smaller job there and move your case for counsular processing. By the time you get your GC for US, you will be the canadian citizen, your family will have the canadian GC as well and you can send the US GC with a polite note that says "The applicant of this benefit is resting in peace inside the canadian border." ;) ;)

Sure... and how easy is it really to find a job that matches your skill sets in the "peaceful" economy of our northern neighbor? I landed last year but don't see any rays of hope as far as jobs go.

jazz

JazzByTheBay
10-05-2006, 11:03 AM
Hi Pappu,

There you go...http://www.nritalk.com/

I did change the banner a little bit to make it "suitable" for my site, i do not think it will hurt anyone but USCIS !!


I will use upper case to grab some attention here:
THE BACKGROUND OF YOUR BLOG (ORANGE) AND THE TEXT COLOR COMBINATION MAKES IT UNREADABLE, MUCH AS I WOULD WANT TO READ SOME OF YOUR RECENT POSTS. IT MAKES SENSE TO AIM FOR EASIER READABILITY THAN FANCY USE OF COLORS/TYPEFACES, IMO. PLEASE FIX IT AND HELP VISITORS OF YOUR SITE/BLOG.

jazz

purethoughts
10-06-2006, 11:19 AM
I will use upper case to grab some attention here:
THE BACKGROUND OF YOUR BLOG (ORANGE) AND THE TEXT COLOR COMBINATION MAKES IT UNREADABLE, MUCH AS I WOULD WANT TO READ SOME OF YOUR RECENT POSTS. IT MAKES SENSE TO AIM FOR EASIER READABILITY THAN FANCY USE OF COLORS/TYPEFACES, IMO. PLEASE FIX IT AND HELP VISITORS OF YOUR SITE/BLOG.

jazz

Thanks Jazz,

I changed the blog theme. I wanted this kind of positive feedbck. Let me know if you wish to contribute to the blog we will have fun.

gc_in_30_yrs
10-06-2006, 11:43 AM
Thanks Jazz,

I changed the blog theme. I wanted this kind of positive feedbck. Let me know if you wish to contribute to the blog we will have fun.

You want points of interest to write a blog or you want us to write some articles for you? I am just confused. Please clarify.

pappu
10-06-2006, 01:15 PM
Thanks Jazz,

I changed the blog theme. I wanted this kind of positive feedbck. Let me know if you wish to contribute to the blog we will have fun.
on your blog's right hand column could you post IV link as one of your favorites.
You are the first person that has posted IV banner or link on their website. Thank you.

felix31
10-06-2006, 06:05 PM
on your blog's right hand column could you post IV link as one of your favorites.
You are the first person that has posted IV banner or link on their website. Thank you.

I am exploring options to display a one month paid advertisement for IV on my community's web site - subsection on immigration.
I know there are handful of IT and non-IT people stuck in EB (from former Yugoslavia), but the rest of the regular memebers and visitors are either with GC and USC or stuck back at home, looking for ways to immigrate to US &Canada.

But I will give it a shot - perhaps it will bring at least one person...

Who knows ....