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aadimanav
06-20-2008, 06:23 PM
http://immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5456

aadimanav
06-20-2008, 06:27 PM
http://immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5456

"..........but Charlie did offer his speculation that Indian EB3 is going to move very slowly when visa numbers are again available. Curiously, Chinese EB3 could catch up with the rest of the world in the not too distant future, leaving only
Chinese EB2 backlogged......"

-- Ron

LostInGCProcess
06-20-2008, 06:41 PM
This part is a bit scary.......
The historic AOS denial rate is approximately 22%. Based on their review of pending cases, the CIS said that they believed that their denial rate would be approximately 50%.

That means CIS would deny one out of every 2 application... :eek:

GCScrewed
06-20-2008, 07:26 PM
http://immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5456

"..........but Charlie did offer his speculation that Indian EB3 is going to move very slowly when visa numbers are again available. Curiously, Chinese EB3 could catch up with the rest of the world in the not too distant future, leaving only
Chinese EB2 backlogged......"

-- Ron

I don't think EB2 will be backlogged while EB3 could catch up as I did not seem to find anywhere in historical data to support this predication. EB3 is always in a disadvantage compared with all other categories.

apahilaj
06-20-2008, 07:51 PM
This part is a bit scary.......
The historic AOS denial rate is approximately 22%. Based on their review of pending cases, the CIS said that they believed that their denial rate would be approximately 50%.

That means CIS would deny one out of every 2 application... :eek:

I wonder how they came up with this 50% denial rate....

Does this mean they've already scanned through these pending applications figuring out if an application is missing initial documents? I find it tough to believe....

pd_recapturing
06-20-2008, 08:21 PM
This part is a bit scary.......
The historic AOS denial rate is approximately 22%. Based on their review of pending cases, the CIS said that they believed that their denial rate would be approximately 50%.

That means CIS would deny one out of every 2 application... :eek:
I guess, family based applicants also file AOS. May be their denial rate is 50%. I am not sure. Can someone clarify this ?

SDdesi
06-20-2008, 08:21 PM
He said that the CIS asked for substantially larger allocations each month due to anticipated higher denial rates. The historic AOS denial rate is approximately 22%. Based on their review of pending cases, the CIS said that they believed that their denial rate would be approximately 50%

I hope these denials are for all the labor substitution cases......A big help to all of us who played by the rules and stayed in line.

drirshad
06-20-2008, 08:24 PM
http://www.clarkhill.com/microsite/immigration/green_cards/family_based_green_cards/

The Immigrant Visa application is the final stage in the family-based green card process. Applicants may select either Adjustment of Status or Consular Processing as the mechanism to complete the process.

drirshad
06-20-2008, 08:44 PM
Please read the full message, CIS predicted 50% but that is not the case ...

He said that the CIS asked for substantially larger allocations each month due to anticipated higher denial rates. The historic AOS denial rate is approximately 22%. Based on their review of pending cases, the CIS said that they believed that their denial rate would be approximately 50%. For this reason, they requested larger allocations of blocks of visa numbers so that they could pull larger numbers of files. As it turned out, the denial rate was lower than anticipated so a larger number of visas got used. Mr. Oppenheim observed that the CIS seemed to be adjudicating more recently filed cases. It is unknown as to whether the sample batch of files from which the CIS determined that there would be a likely 50% denial rate was a small sample, a group of older cases, or something else.

This part is a bit scary.......
The historic AOS denial rate is approximately 22%. Based on their review of pending cases, the CIS said that they believed that their denial rate would be approximately 50%.

That means CIS would deny one out of every 2 application... :eek:

kaisersose
06-20-2008, 10:43 PM
Personally, I am not convinced by the 50% rejection logic. It is absurd that 1 out of 2 485s will be rejected after the 140 has been approved. If they are talking about concurrent cases where the 140 is not yet approved, it is absurd again that 1 out of 2 140s are not approved.

So either way, it does not sound right. If this number includes family cases too, then as EB rejection is lower than 50%, family rejection rate should be much higher than 50% for the combined rate to be 50%. That is not believable either.

akilaakka
06-20-2008, 11:04 PM
I am working closely with a Fed Agency. So I know their thinking

1) CIS official did not give in writing, everything is verbal

2) CIS is trying to protect itself to prevent possible lawsuit as they have requested more visa numbers than what should have been allocated.

amsgc
06-20-2008, 11:07 PM
The explanation is not given by CIS (of DHS). It is given by the DOS.

I am working closely with a Fed Agency. So I know their thinking

1) CIS official did not give in writing, everything is verbal

2) CIS is trying to protect itself to prevent possible lawsuit as they have requested more visa numbers than what should have been allocated.

immique
06-20-2008, 11:30 PM
interesting comments from Ron Gotcher's website. hopefully with some quick movement in EB2, the fall over goes into EB3 and provide some relief. But somebody please tell me why would any family based application be denied??? It seems to me that they are straight forward as they apply based on family relation. denials are certainly possible in EB applications based on various factors. please correct me if I am wrong.

alterego
06-20-2008, 11:37 PM
It was interesting to hear that there are about 400K EB cases in queue and about 40-45% of them are EB India, and another 20-25% EB China and EB3 Mexico is becoming large too.
Effectively, the only solution that can prevent years long wait for EB immigrants in the above categories is EB relief and visa recapture. So you can understand how helpful visa recapture of 200K or so visas will be for all of us.

kaisersose
06-21-2008, 12:09 AM
It was interesting to hear that there are about 400K EB cases in queue and about 40-45% of them are EB India, and another 20-25% EB China and EB3 Mexico is becoming large too.
Effectively, the only solution that can prevent years long wait for EB immigrants in the above categories is EB relief and visa recapture. So you can understand how helpful visa recapture of 200K or so visas will be for all of us.

Just keep in mind though that if 200K visa numbers are made available...the 400k backlog will not become 400K - 200K. It does not work that way.

pappu
06-21-2008, 12:38 AM
22% is not believeable
Only data can tell

akilaakka
06-21-2008, 12:44 AM
"Mr. Oppenheim explained that while the Visa Office initially took the view that visa numbers had to fall down into employment third preference before the could fall across to the individual country quotas, but after further review, additional legislation, and consultation with Congress, they concluded that they have to allocate the fall across within individual preference petitions first."

Could some one explain the meaning. I could not comprehend this statement

kaisersose
06-21-2008, 12:59 AM
"Mr. Oppenheim explained that while the Visa Office initially took the view that visa numbers had to fall down into employment third preference before the could fall across to the individual country quotas, but after further review, additional legislation, and consultation with Congress, they concluded that they have to allocate the fall across within individual preference petitions first."

Could some one explain the meaning. I could not comprehend this statement

It is like this... EB2 is current for ROW. So what should they do with surplus numbers? Should they

1. Pass them to EB2 retrogressed countries or
2. Pass them to EB3 ROW

It says the visa office originally thought 2 was correct, but after further review and consultation, they decided 1 is correct. Hence, though ROW EB2 has surplus numbers, these extra numbers will not be passed to ROW EB3, which is why it has become Unavailable.

amsgc
06-21-2008, 01:02 AM
Here is the meaning:

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (EB India allocations)
------------------------------------
EB1 1,266 2,998 6,336 3,156 2,855

EB2 8,536 16,262 16,687 3,720 6,203

EB3 10,647 19,889 23,250 3,006 17,795

It means EB2-India was screwed over in 2006 and 2007. Those excess numbers went to EB3ROW which should have gone to EB2-India/China.



"Mr. Oppenheim explained that while the Visa Office initially took the view that visa numbers had to fall down into employment third preference before the could fall across to the individual country quotas, but after further review, additional legislation, and consultation with Congress, they concluded that they have to allocate the fall across within individual preference petitions first."

Could some one explain the meaning. I could not comprehend this statement

aadimanav
06-26-2008, 12:43 AM
http://immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5456&page=3

"......
The strong impression that I took away from the converstaion, and this is only my interpretation, not what was said explicity, is the following:


1. The good news: the CIS backlog isn't as big as previously feared and their productivity is at an all time high;

2. More good news: China EB3 had almost caught up with worldwide EB3 and is likely to do so next year;

3. The bad news: when visa numbers become available again, India EB3 is going to be back where it was almost a year ago and it is not likely to move forward much in the next fiscal year.

4. More bad news: 40% to 45% of the entire backlog is Indian EB2 and EB3.

...."

--Ron