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dvb123
07-16-2008, 01:09 AM
I do not want to spoil the party fun but somewhere in my mind there is a lingering doubt. I read Ron Gotcher's post about August 2008 bulletin.

http://immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?p=20233#post20233

He says that Eb2 India will retrogress to 2003 or 2004.

This is my opinion. TSC 485 processing time is July 17,2007. NSC 485 processing cut off date is July 28th, 2007. I don't know if CSC is still processing 485 EB applications but CSC EB processing cut off date on its website is April 04, 2006. The priority date for June 2007 bulletin was April 1st2004.


Lot of big law firms filed 485's around August 1st because the date for filing 485's was extended to August 17th. So I think these 485's are still unadjudicated. Once they get adjudicated there would be retrogression. Analysts analyze. However the silver lining would be removal of concurrent processing of I-140 and I-485 which may give some additional EB 2 numbers next year.

immique
07-16-2008, 01:18 AM
This is exactly what I said in my previous posts. EB2 India may become unavailable towards the end of September as most of the visas will be used in August itself and we will see a flood of approvals starting August 1st itself. I think most of the approvable cases are already processed by USCIS after it gave the data to DOS on July 8th. I think most of the straight forward and less complicated cases during 2004 - 2006 period will be approved soon.

I do not want to spoil the party fun but somewhere in my mind there is a lingering doubt. I read Ron Gotcher's post about August 2008 bulletin.

http://immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?p=20233#post20233

He says that Eb2 India will retrogress to 2003 or 2004.

This is my opinion. TSC 485 processing time is July 17,2008. NSC 485 processing cut off date is July 28th, 2008. I don't know if CSC is still processing 485 EB applications but CSC EB processing cut off date on its website is April 04, 2006. The priority date for June 2007 bulletin was April 1st2004.


Lot of big law firms filed 485's around August 1st because the date for filing 485's was extended to August 17th. So I think these 485's are still unadjudicated. Once they get adjudicated there would be retrogression. Analysts analyze. However the silver lining would be removal of concurrent processing of I-140 and I-485 which may give some additional EB 2 numbers next year.

nogc_noproblem
07-16-2008, 01:20 AM
Correction: July 17th 2007 & July 28th 2007 - Please correct it.

Could not understand what you mean by 'these 485s are still unadjudicated'. Of-course yes, that's why the dates are moved further so that they can get adjudicated.

Again 'Once they get adjudicated there would be retrogression' what do you mean? If they all get adjudicated then what is the reason of retrogression again? Am I missing something here? May be we can take it like this, depending upon the volume of the approvals, the dates will go back, higher the approvals, lesser the retrogression.

I do not want to spoil the party fun but somewhere in my mind there is a lingering doubt. I read Ron Gotcher's post about August 2008 bulletin.

http://immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?p=20233#post20233

He says that Eb2 India will retrogress to 2003 or 2004.

This is my opinion. TSC 485 processing time is July 17,2008. NSC 485 processing cut off date is July 28th, 2008. I don't know if CSC is still processing 485 EB applications but CSC EB processing cut off date on its website is April 04, 2006. The priority date for June 2007 bulletin was April 1st2004.


Lot of big law firms filed 485's around August 1st because the date for filing 485's was extended to August 17th. So I think these 485's are still unadjudicated. Once they get adjudicated there would be retrogression. Analysts analyze. However the silver lining would be removal of concurrent processing of I-140 and I-485 which may give some additional EB 2 numbers next year.

vdlrao
07-16-2008, 01:21 AM
I do not want to spoil the party fun but somewhere in my mind there is a lingering doubt. I read Ron Gotcher's post about August 2008 bulletin.

http://immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?p=20233#post20233

He says that Eb2 India will retrogress to 2003 or 2004.

This is my opinion. TSC 485 processing time is July 17,2008. NSC 485 processing cut off date is July 28th, 2008. I don't know if CSC is still processing 485 EB applications but CSC EB processing cut off date on its website is April 04, 2006. The priority date for June 2007 bulletin was April 1st2004.

Lot of big law firms filed 485's around August 1st because the date for filing 485's was extended to August 17th. So I think these 485's are still unadjudicated. Once they get adjudicated there would be retrogression. Analysts analyze. However the silver lining would be removal of concurrent processing of I-140 and I-485 which may give some additional EB 2 numbers next year.

yes. there is a possibility of some retrogression for EB2 India/China in the comming bulletins. But that is just for few months and it might be a mild retrogression as long as there is horizontal fall outs of spill over visas.

immique
07-16-2008, 01:33 AM
I think EB2 India may be retrogressed only for the month of September as most of the visas will be used in August itself. The dates will rapidly advance once again with the new quota in October. I think it is very likely that EB2 will be compensated with the number of visas that were improperly given to EB3 last year. So I expect EB2 to receive those extra visas from EB3 quota next year as DOS will try to compensate retrogressed countries in EB2 for the mistake that they made last year. If this happens, EB2 may become current very soon.

I strongly think DOS tried to compensate EB2 this year itself with the visas that were improperly given to EB3 last year after it received the directives from the US Congress. But unfortunately DOS could not compensate EB2 with the lost visas this year as there were no visas left in EB3 by the time they realized their mistake about 2 months ago as EB3 used most of their visas. This is exactly why DOS made EB3 unavailable so that they can compensate EB2 atleast to some extent. By law they are required to compensate a category that was artificially retrogressed because of their mistakes. It is highly unlikely we will see any significant movement in EB3 ROW or retrogressed countries until the entire EB2 category is current as EB2 will be compensated from EB3 quota. If EB2 is compensated with the visas from the new quota in October, then I expect EB2 including India and China to become current by the end of the year or early 2009(before March 2009) itself.

Once EB2 becomes current, I think EB3 India will get equal spill over as EB3 ROW as both the categories will be retrogressed and will move equally(as per PD) with the spillover from EB2 and EB1

yes. there is a possibility of some retrogression for EB2 India/China in the comming bulletins. But that is just for few months and it might be a mild retrogression as long as there is horizontal fall outs of spill over visas.

dvb123
07-16-2008, 01:37 AM
I think immigration voice should ensure that concurrent filing of I-140 and I-485 is removed.

eb3_nepa
07-16-2008, 01:52 AM
I think immigration voice should ensure that concurrent filing of I-140 and I-485 is removed.

And why exactly should ImmigrationVoice do that?? Concurrent filing is HIGHLY beneficial to most people here!

meridiani.planum
07-16-2008, 04:03 AM
yes. there is a possibility of some retrogression for EB2 India/China in the comming bulletins. But that is just for few months and it might be a mild retrogression as long as there is horizontal fall outs of spill over visas.

"possibility of retrogression"???? thats sounding like a weather forecast. :)

lets have a specific prediction here. Can you pick an year and month for EB2-India for the October 2008 Visa Bulletin (start of new fiscal year)?
Ron Gotcher believes EB2-India will be somewhere at 2002/2003.

vdlrao
07-16-2008, 04:17 AM
"possibility of retrogression"???? thats sounding like a weather forecast. :)

lets have a specific prediction here. Can you pick an year and month for EB2-India for the October 2008 Visa Bulletin (start of new fiscal year)?
Ron Gotcher believes EB2-India will be somewhere at 2002/2003.

meridiani.planum, thanks for giving me red. I dont think EB2- India will go back to 2002/2003 for the October 2008 visa bulletin. Even if it goes back to that old dates it comes back to 2006/2007 very quickly.

dilber
07-16-2008, 04:40 AM
meridiani.planum, thanks for giving me red.

Don't worry about the red I just gave you green to counter the effect if it has any :)

Legal
07-16-2008, 09:33 AM
Can you pick an year and month for EB2-India for the October 2008 Visa Bulletin (start of new fiscal year)?
Ron Gotcher believes EB2-India will be somewhere at 2002/2003.

Even the prediction of end of the universe could be made more accurately than what will happen to the visa bulletin. It's true there may be retrogression in Sep 08 for EB2-I, but the movements back and forth are likely to be minimal.

rsdang
07-16-2008, 10:31 AM
What is Ron basing his prediction on... I am not sure the trend says so... Can anyone please share his logic?

nixstor
07-16-2008, 10:59 AM
What is Ron basing his prediction on... I am not sure the trend says so... Can anyone please share his logic?

2 months before, IV has learned from CA/VO at the State Dept that 80-85% of all the visa numbers have been allocated for the fiscal year. I am sure that the actual usage by now is probably more than the 85%. If I am not mistaken, DOS considered 95% utilization as best in the past. It seems to me that they want to get close to the 100%. If you look at the last few bulletins, the cut off dates moved by one month and not by leaps and bounds. Clearly there was demand. I can see EB-2 I & C with PD's of 2002 getting approvals. The demand for EB-2 I & C still exists. DOS just gave USCIS an opportunity to USCIS to utilize the visa numbers. We all know that there is no such thing called FIFO with CIS. I have said this before and will say again one more time.

In the last 2 months, Some one with a PD of Jan 06 might get approved and some one with Jun 02 will be sulking. Just because EB-2 I & C dates have moved to 06 for a brief time does not mean that EB-3 I & C are the only ones that will be left sulking for ever. EB-2 I & C will join the lines in no time. The comparative pain & wait time for EB-3 I & C is more, but what difference does it make if it takes 6 years vs 10 years. Any solutions or thoughts to our issues that are designed entirely on a EB category basis, IMO are not good.

gcdreamer05
07-16-2008, 11:48 AM
What is Ron basing his prediction on... I am not sure the trend says so... Can anyone please share his logic?
Well if you read the post by ron, someone has already asked him, on what basis do you predict the date and he simply has replied like this,
"I'm basing that date on what I've been told by the Visa Office."

May be he is in constant touch with the folks at USCIS and not DOS. But one thing if you notice, this guy (Ron) has been correct in whatever he says in the past......


I am in EB3 but i am happy that things move forward for atleast EB2 folks because we can get as many people as possible out of the queue..... with hopes that one day eb3 would move forward too :(

gondalguru
07-16-2008, 12:03 PM
meridiani.planum, thanks for giving me red. I dont think EB2- India will go back to 2002/2003 for the October 2008 visa bulletin. Even if it goes back to that old dates it comes back to 2006/2007 very quickly.

I will give you a green too. You have been a great help to forum members understand retrogression issues.

jonty_11
07-16-2008, 01:23 PM
unfortunately, I think there is more demand than supply for EB2 India Mostly (maybe China too)...which will not let any relief be brought to any EB3 categories....If USCIS keeps allocating spillovers to EB2...they will never quell that demand.

I agree with Nixtor that dates for EB2 (I and C) will go back again..to at least 2004 if not later.

pa_arora
07-16-2008, 02:08 PM
I will give you a green too. You have been a great help to forum members understand retrogression issues.
how do u give a green or red dot??

EB3_SEP04
07-16-2008, 02:08 PM
I do not want to spoil the party fun but somewhere in my mind there is a lingering doubt. I read Ron Gotcher's post about August 2008 bulletin.

http://immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?p=20233#post20233

He says that Eb2 India will retrogress to 2003 or 2004.
.

Ron gotcher makes sense to me. Considering the (quota + spill over) vs. the demand, it is just wishful thinking that all EB2-I with PD < 06/06 will get GC in the next few months. I also agree with others that in Oct EB2-I will retrogress back to the original levels (2004), it could go even beyond (to late 2002 or early 2003) that if a handful of EB2-I (who did not get a chance a last year) file 485 in the next 1-2 months.

2 yr EAD rule and this big EB2-I advancement could just be an unfortunate coincidence. But a lot of folks will sure find a 100% correlation nonetheless.

Dhundhun
07-16-2008, 03:19 PM
I expect to retrogress in Nov or Dec 2008. Logic, I have put forward in http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=263895#post263895

kumarc123
07-16-2008, 03:52 PM
Whoever opened this post about retrogression, close this stupid post.


Previous months everyone was discussing on how the dates should move, how to avoid retrogress.


Now when the dates have moved, now some idiots are speculating on when and how the dates should retrogress.


Guys get a life, focus on the core element here, the element is to relieve ourselves and others from backlog. Read all these posts, what are we you all focusing on when dates will Retrogress

What you get in life is what you attract and think. Think positive and positivity will come to you, if you keep questioning it, then you can join the long line of suckers and whiners.


Close this damn post and all the people who have to give their 2 smart cents on retrogress, call among each other or open something of your own.


All these messages which you are posting will just break our spirit. Administrator, please close these posts.

gondalguru
07-16-2008, 04:50 PM
Whoever opened this post about retrogression, close this stupid post.


Previous months everyone was discussing on how the dates should move, how to avoid retrogress.


Now when the dates have moved, now some idiots are speculating on when and how the dates should retrogress.


Guys get a life, focus on the core element here, the element is to relieve ourselves and others from backlog. Read all these posts, what are we you all focusing on when dates will Retrogress

What you get in life is what you attract and think. Think positive and positivity will come to you, if you keep questioning it, then you can join the long line of suckers and whiners.


Close this damn post and all the people who have to give their 2 smart cents on retrogress, call among each other or open something of your own.


All these messages which you are posting will just break our spirit. Administrator, please close these posts.

Relax. Take it easy. What makes you so angry. People are just expressing their views.

kumarc123
07-16-2008, 04:55 PM
Relax. Take it easy. What makes you so angry. People are just expressing their views.

I apologize, I got carried away,
It is just some people posting such negative views, it breaks everyones spirits.

gondalguru
07-16-2008, 05:02 PM
how do u give a green or red dot??

On the left upper hand corner of every post you will find 3 icons. Click on middle one and a drop down menu pops out. If you click -- I approve then its a green dot and if you click I disapprove then its a red.

Correct me if I am wrong.

karthkc
07-16-2008, 06:14 PM
On the left upper hand corner of every post you will find 3 icons. Click on middle one and a drop down menu pops out. If you click -- I approve then its a green dot and if you click I disapprove then its a red.

Correct me if I am wrong.

Thanks! I finally found it..

Slight Correction...Its the upper right hand corner, next to the post #...

ran098
07-16-2008, 08:18 PM
And why? Just because It suits you?
Too many selfish people here..

I think immigration voice should ensure that concurrent filing of I-140 and I-485 is removed.