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View Full Version : Reg. FB to EB spillovers


srkamath
08-27-2008, 07:02 PM
Just a few points about FB to EB spillovers.

Summary - there will not be a 22k spillover in Sep08.

Here's why.

1. The annual EB limit is not just 140k but EB = 140k + FB spillover from prev FY.

2. The law does not say when the FB to EB spillover should happen.

3. DOS has a good estimate of EB = 140k + fb early in the year - but they will not know the exact number till Q4 of that year. How closely can they estimate fb spillover? Probably within a few thousands.

4. EB3 gets 28.6% of the EB = 140k + FB .
Therefore EB3 must get at least 28.6% of FB (~6700).
EB2 cannot get more than 100 - 28.6 = 71.4% (~16000).

5. EB3 is unavailable for 2008 and became unavailable 2 months ago.

6. The FB spillover into EB2 was factored-in all along. There will be no avalanche of 22700 FB spillover in Sep 08.

7. Therefore DOS must have overestimated the FB spillover during the first 9 months of FY 2008. Which means they overestimated the number available to EB2 as well.

8. There will be very few EB2 India / China approvals between now and Oct 1 st. They will be a few approvals towards the later part of Sep08. Basically more "low hanging fruit" from June & July 08, to take up the EB2 numbers that ROW and EB1 did not use up. There could be plenty of RFEs as they process the rest of our applications.

9. Prediction - In next year's report we will see USCIS having used up over 162,000 EB visas.

10. It is VERY DISAPPOINTING

Legal
08-27-2008, 07:59 PM
Just a few points about FB to EB spillovers.

Summary - there will not be a 22k spillover in Sep08.

Here's why.

1. The annual EB limit is not just 140k but EB = 140k + FB spillover from prev FY.

2. The law does not say when the FB to EB spillover should happen.

3. DOS has a good estimate of EB = 140k + fb early in the year - but they will not know the exact number till Q4 of that year. How closely can they estimate fb spillover? Probably within a few thousands.

4. EB3 gets 28.6% of the EB = 140k + FB .
Therefore EB3 must get at least 28.6% of FB (~6700).
EB2 cannot get more than 100 - 28.6 = 71.4% (~16000).

5. EB3 is unavailable for 2008 and became unavailable 2 months ago.

6. The FB spillover into EB2 was factored-in all along. There will be no avalanche of 22700 FB spillover in Sep 08.

7. Therefore DOS must have overestimated the FB spillover during the first 9 months of FY 2008. Which means they overestimated the number available to EB2 as well.

8. There will be very few EB2 India / China approvals between now and Oct 1 st. They will be a few approvals towards the later part of Sep08. Basically more "low hanging fruit" from June & July 08, to take up the EB2 numbers that ROW and EB1 did not use up. There could be plenty of RFEs as they process the rest of our applications.

9. Prediction - In next year's report we will see USCIS having used up over 162,000 EB visas.

10. It is VERY DISAPPOINTING

SRK,
Even if we assume the FB spillover has already been factored in, the number of EB adjudications for this fiscal year cannot / do not add up to 162k. To reach the 162 K, they must approve 40K between May08 and Sep 08? Where are these 40k petitions coming from?

srkamath
08-27-2008, 08:14 PM
SRK,
Even if we assume the FB spillover has already been factored in, the number of EB adjudications for this fiscal year cannot / do not add up to 162k. To reach the 162 K, they must approve 40K between May08 and Sep 08? Where are these 40k petitions coming from?

~ 120k AOS cases till May 08 right?

Let's see, how many EB1,2,3,4,5 were issued this year at consular posts, is there any way to find out? Last year they issued a total of 29000 GCs via consular processing (23k of EB3). Let's say this year they issue ~ 25,000 at CP.

Through August08, buy sachug22's and my own low-end estimates~ 7000 EB2 IN visas were issued.

So there may be upto ~ 8000 still left, which account for May, June, July and Sep 2008 approvals.

120,000 reported till May 08
25,000 issued at CPs
7,000 August 2008 EB2 estimate
8,000 approved in May, June, July, and to be approved Sep of 2008
160,000 Total accountable for 2008

What are your thoughts?