View Full Version : EB3 ROW Prediction

09-23-2008, 10:39 AM
Does anyone have any idea how long it will take for an EB3 ROW employment based 485 approval with priority date of October 2005? I submitted mine last year during the July 2007 fiasco.

09-23-2008, 10:55 AM
There would not be any considerable movement for any category atleast till Jan 09 or Feb 09 Visa bullitens.

Guys Please ignore if you don't like this. Do not give me reds.

I am EB3-I.

09-23-2008, 11:08 AM
then after that how long do you think it will actually take to get the green card?

09-23-2008, 11:28 AM
Then no more predictions... :D

09-23-2008, 11:39 AM
Due to horizontal spill over policy .. EB3 Row movement is also going to slow down.

09-23-2008, 11:49 AM
my lawyer said that it would take many years before approval - do you think this is correct?

09-23-2008, 12:15 PM
It will take long time alright. Reasons: "Significantly larger pool of applicants", unused EB2 ROW numbers' horizontal spill over.
Cut off date for ROW was 01 MAR 06 in June 08 bulletin, then it became U. Now its 1-1-05 but with your priority date, I think you have a pretty good chance as soon as the cut off date starts moving.

09-23-2008, 01:28 PM
I personally wish EB3-ROWers were more active in this forum, so I'm going to start the ball rolling. Of course, I'm not a professional and my opinions are not law. Take them with a grain of salt. However, this is what I think about your situation:

My prediction for your Oct 2005 PD case: you will get GC within the '09 working year. Here are my opinions and my reasonings:

1. Your lawyer is crap; Fire him.

You were current before this year ended. In June this year, the cutoff was 03/06. Your lawyer should have been working his ass off, making calls and contacting AILA and doing everything he could to get you your GC then. You missed your chance. YOU MISSED YOUR CHANCE.

2. Whether the EB2-ROW spillover goes to EB2-I or EB3-ROW - all this is irrelevant for your case right now. You only care about it if in Jun 09, the cutoff date hasn't reached Oct 05 (highly unlikely).

Just saying quoting "Spillover to EB2-I! You wait long!" is the lazy man's careless opinion.

I personally feel USCIS didn't know what to do with the '08 EB2-ROW spillover, and just allocated it to EB2-I. If EB2-ROW spillovers to EB2-I were permanently the new trend, EB2-I would not retrogress back more than 3 years. For your comparison, EB3-ROW retrogressed 1 year 2 months.

3. Here is a list of past EB3-ROW processing dates for your reference. It was kindly provided by another EB3-ROW member (I forgot who but I love him) :

January 1, 2005 > C
February 1, 2005 > C
March 1, 2005 > C
April 1, 2005 > C
May 1, 2005 > C
June 1, 2005 > C
July 1, 2005 > U
August 1, 2005 > U
September 1, 2005 > U
October 1, 2005 > March 1, 2001
November 1, 2005 > March 1, 2001
December 1, 2005 > March 15, 2001
January 1, 2006 > April 1, 2001
February 1, 2006 > April 22, 2001
March 1, 2006 > May 1, 2001
April 1, 2006 > May 1, 2001
May 1, 2006 > May 1, 2001
June 1, 2006 > July 1, 2001
July 1, 2006 > October 1, 2001
August 1, 2006 > October 1, 2001
September 1, 2006 > March 1, 2002
October 1, 2006 > May 1, 2002
November 1, 2006 > July 1, 2002
December 1, 2006 > August 1, 2002
January 1, 2007 > August 1, 2002
February 1, 2007 > August 1, 2002
March 1, 2007 > August 1, 2002
April 1, 2007 > August 1, 2002
May 1, 2007 > August 1, 2003
June 1, 2007 > June 1, 2005
July 1, 2007 > C
August 1, 2007 > U
September 1, 2007 > August 1, 2002
October 1, 2007 > August 1, 2002
November 1, 2007 > August 1, 2002
December 1, 2007 > September 1, 2002
January 1, 2008 > October 15, 2002
February 1, 2008 > November 1, 2002
March 1, 2008 > July 1, 2005
April 1, 2008 > January 1, 2005
May 1, 2008 > March 1, 2006
June 1, 2008 > March 1, 2006
July 1, 2008 > U
August 1, 2008 > U
September 1, 2008 > U
October 1, 2008 > January 1, 2005

So look at the facts. Predict for yourself.

And did I mention, fire your lawyer?

09-23-2008, 02:13 PM
I am EB3-ROW, July fiasco filler, PD September 8 2003, I-140 approved, and still waiting with no news on 485....

09-23-2008, 02:32 PM
Check this thread on Ron Gotcher's site. It has a good description regarding the current VB situation:

This is the essential info from Ron

09-24-2008, 02:36 PM
My PD is Jun 06 and I just received 2 year EAD. Thank you IV staff. I'm grateful.

But sheesh, I hope this doesn't mean the cutoff dates aren't going to move in 09.

09-24-2008, 03:40 PM
My PD is January 31, 2005 and my file is at a local USCIS office after doing an interview back in May. The officer didn't approve it then because... well I have no idea...

The last I heard from that office is they're waiting on a visa number...

Do you guys think the Nov bulletin could show a measly 30 day move?

Looks like from the table below, in 2006 it moved a couple of months in November, but in 2007 it didn't move until January.

Ah, the joy (or misery) of hope...

09-24-2008, 07:01 PM
There is good chance that 01/01/2005 will stay for a few more months. Trackers show a quite big number of pending ROW cases from 2004. But if they decide to move it (I hope to), it will go to Jun 2005- when first Perm cases started.

09-24-2008, 09:56 PM
I do not want to sound negative as I want an end to this as much as anyone. As mentioned earlier in this thread my priority date is October 2005 EB3 ROW. I asked my attorney today about their prediction for the future in my case. I realize that it is difficult to predict but asked if it would be a matter of months or years before approval.

They said that their guess would be that it would be years rather than months. This attorney has done an awesome job for me in all my immigration needs, so I have no reason to believe they are making this up.

Like I said I don't want to sound negative - perhaps with new laws this will change in future who knows.

09-25-2008, 12:55 PM
Well Gilmout, when you ask your lawyer to answer the question like that, of course he would answer "years" instead of "months" just to be safe.

Look brother, you asked for a prediction, all of us gave you ours. Some quick answers, some really detailed and educated answers. Your lawyer told you what you didn't want to hear; Hence you came to this forum. We tried our best to steer you toward the truth.

I see you are very defensive about your lawyer. My personal opinion of him is crap. Just for your benefit, I will state my reasons again. "He's done a pretty good job so far" doesn't prove anything. What does prove something is that your PD is Oct 2005. In May 2008, the cut-off was March 2006. That's right, March 2006. That's 5 months or roughly 150 days after your PD! Do you know how many would kill to be in a situation like that?

You're telling me your lawyer sat through all that, did nothing, no inquiry, no service request, and just waited for USCIS to automatically send you the green card. That is not the definition of an awesome job in my eyes.

Take my opinion how you will. Please keep in mind I don't stand to gain anything by helping you. All this is for your benefit.

09-25-2008, 01:26 PM
I hear you brother - my lawyer did a service request when I was current but without success.

09-25-2008, 02:02 PM
Come on my prority date is june 2005 but it did not help even when they moved the dates to 2006. The thing was the receipt date, even though i am a july 2 nd filer, the RD just moved 30 days past my processing date at the end and then and only then will they do something about your service request.

If the lawyer filed a service request he did what he could because really it s uscis not the lawyer. Believe me I dont like their profession(lawyers), but their hands are bound just as our are when it comes to getting anything out of the calls at the service centers.

Without change nothing will really speed up. Not this year either. And there are plenty of people with 2004 cases still hanging in there too. My first case was 2003 and the only reason why I did not port to my PERM case is because my boss insisted on getting me the higher job description on the 2005 case.

Anyway stop telling him to fire a lawyer who seems to have done an ok job. Thats just my opinon ;-)

09-25-2008, 02:49 PM
Well, yes I can agree now. If the lawyer did file a service request and did inform OP he was current, then I would say it's not the lawyer's fault.

Just to be clear, the scenario initially painted by OP was simply: my PD is Oct 2005 and my lawyer said "oh, wait for years." Under this impression, tell me that lawyer is not crap?

Gilmout: Good luck with your case. I predict your PD will be current in 09. Heaven knows we need more irishmen in the pubs on St Patrick's Day.

10-01-2008, 01:14 AM
we are all doomed. there is no hope for this gc. i will go hoem to my homeland and sell bananas.:(

10-01-2008, 10:44 AM
we are all doomed. there is no hope for this gc. i will go hoem to my homeland and sell bananas.:(

Keep hope..thats what we can do the best..

As they keep changing rules/doing what ever they want..by milking more money into their treasury reserves..