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gc_on_demand
01-20-2009, 02:01 PM
China has PD of Jan 2005. I checked Labor data for China for 2005 , 2006 and 2007 and they have some 15k approval for labor ( Eb2 + Eb3 + others ). if we assume 50 % of them are EB2 then only 7.5k for 3 years.

Last year they got 6900 or so in Eb2 . If they get that many visas they will touch 2008 soon. If 50 % projection is more then they may become current.

as a Big country they may not spare some visas for india for horizontal spill but atleast they may not share from spill.

India will get 3-4 k more Spill visa soon.. Date may move to early 2008 for India. (Eb2) Even though all people will not get GC.

pointlesswait
01-20-2009, 02:07 PM
good deduction..
but expecting Eb2 india moving to 2008 is far fetched ..
i will be surprised if it even makes past mid 2004 by end of this year... there are ppl from 2001 getting their GCs..now..
unless USCIS shows some transperancy and releases the exact number...we can thrive on speculations..

Why wont they release the exact numbers of pending EB numbers.. why this secrecy??
:confused:

China has PD of Jan 2005. I checked Labor data for China for 2005 , 2006 and 2007 and they have some 15k approval for labor ( Eb2 + Eb3 + others ). if we assume 50 % of them are EB2 then only 7.5k for 3 years.

Last year they got 6900 or so in Eb2 . If they get that many visas they will touch 2008 soon. If 50 % projection is more then they may become current.

as a Big country they may not spare some visas for india for horizontal spill but atleast they may not share from spill.

India will get 3-4 k more Spill visa soon.. Date may move to early 2008 for India. (Eb2) Even though all people will not get GC.

alkg
01-20-2009, 02:24 PM
And what about EB2 India.............?

India har baar peeche hi rahega ?????????

gc_on_demand
01-20-2009, 02:28 PM
And what about EB2 India.............?

India har baar peeche hi rahega ?????????

India has huge demand for Eb numbers. Even during 05-06-07 India has some 20 - 30k labor per year ( Eb based ) .

I think Chineese people are more propsprous in CHINA... I see less Chineese people in IT compare to 2002 - 03. If India become more attractive to us there will be less demand from india too.

Recently I heard on radio show that China will be no one this year on Student visa. If that the case then down the road (in 3-5 ) years again demand from China will equal to more to india.

gc_on_demand
01-20-2009, 02:31 PM
good deduction..
but expecting Eb2 india moving to 2008 is far fetched ..
i will be surprised if it even makes past mid 2004 by end of this year... there are ppl from 2001 getting their GCs..now..
unless USCIS shows some transperancy and releases the exact number...we can thrive on speculations..

Why wont they release the exact numbers of pending EB numbers.. why this secrecy??
:confused:

As per Lawer Ron who is in this filed for some 10- 20 years.. CIS never fulfill promises. Last time there was some new database or IT system was coming in Nov 2008. Still we didnot see comment in visa bulletin that USCIS has given excat no of pending application and we cannot move date or something.. I think towards end of year again they will move dates so CP filler can get GC. If some one will be lucky enough then they may get like people from 2006 got last year.

Keeme
01-20-2009, 03:41 PM
China has PD of Jan 2005. I checked Labor data for China for 2005 , 2006 and 2007 and they have some 15k approval for labor ( Eb2 + Eb3 + others ). if we assume 50 % of them are EB2 then only 7.5k for 3 years.

Last year they got 6900 or so in Eb2 . If they get that many visas they will touch 2008 soon. If 50 % projection is more then they may become current.

as a Big country they may not spare some visas for india for horizontal spill but atleast they may not share from spill.

India will get 3-4 k more Spill visa soon.. Date may move to early 2008 for India. (Eb2) Even though all people will not get GC.

Can you please get same nubmers for India ( EB2/3) ? Many EB2/3 got approved July 2007 Visa bulletin and this year also. Also when it became current last year, not all would have filed as approved labor is required to file I-485.

MDix
01-20-2009, 04:43 PM
China has PD of Jan 2005. . If 50 % projection is more then they may become current.
.

I think it would be less than 50% (may be 25%) as very few of them work for Consultancy and big firm genreally dont file in EB2.

My gut feeling is that they will make both India/China Eb2 curent. Otherwise it will look so bad that only India EB2 is not current:D.

Thanks,
MDix

hydboy77
01-20-2009, 05:03 PM
A vast number of EB3 India "consultants" working for Desi "companies" have already ported there eb3 dates to eb2 and because of this EB2 will not be current. I doubt it will even reach end of 2005 anytime soon. Non desi companies are not doing eb2 for IT but it is the desi "companies" and the "consultants" who work in these "companies" who have done these porting that have set the dates back. It is because of these desi "companies" and the "consultants" that DOL is putting restrictions on getting eb2 in IT. Anyway the damage has already been done. The problem with looking at EB2 perm approvals to guess if eb2 dates move forward is that it does not tell how many are from porting candidates. Atleast 50% of them are from desi "companies consultants" (just look at how many threads have been opened in IV by desi companies consultants asking for advise on how to porteb3 to eb2), so even tough they might have applied for eb2 in 06,07 or even 08 they are using 01,02 03 eb3 priority dates and jumping ahead of you. You dont have crooked chinese companies like desi companies that is why there is no porting going on in chinese eb2 whereas almost all the crooked desi comapnies and consultants are indulging in porting.

vkannan
01-20-2009, 05:20 PM
A vast number of EB3 India "consultants" working for Desi "companies" have already ported there eb3 dates to eb2 and because of this EB2 will not be current. I doubt it will even reach end of 2005 anytime soon. Non desi companies are not doing eb2 for IT but it is the desi "companies" and the "consultants" who work in these "companies" who have done these porting that have set the dates back. It is because of these desi "companies" and the "consultants" that DOL is putting restrictions on getting eb2 in IT. Anyway the damage has already been done. The problem with looking at EB2 perm approvals to guess if eb2 dates move forward is that it does not tell how many are from porting candidates. Atleast 50% of them are from desi "companies consultants" (just look at how many threads have been opened in IV by desi companies consultants asking for advise on how to porteb3 to eb2), so even tough they might have applied for eb2 in 06,07 or even 08 they are using 01,02 03 eb3 priority dates and jumping ahead of you. You dont have crooked chinese companies like desi companies that is why there is no porting going on in chinese eb2 whereas almost all the crooked desi comapnies and consultants are indulging in porting.

Wouldn't porting needs the applicant to start the process from Labor again? if that being the case as you speculate if there were bunch of porting is going on, atleast it should have started 2 years back for them to be in the AOS, I seriously doubt that would be the case......with Labor approval takign min. 6 -8 months these days and 140 another 8-10 months I doubt that there are that many ppl. ported from EB3 to EB2 will be in line for AOS....I think serious discussion on EB3 to EB2 porting started after Aug 2008.....

vkannan
01-20-2009, 05:24 PM
China has PD of Jan 2005. I checked Labor data for China for 2005 , 2006 and 2007 and they have some 15k approval for labor ( Eb2 + Eb3 + others ). if we assume 50 % of them are EB2 then only 7.5k for 3 years.

Last year they got 6900 or so in Eb2 . If they get that many visas they will touch 2008 soon. If 50 % projection is more then they may become current.

as a Big country they may not spare some visas for india for horizontal spill but atleast they may not share from spill.

India will get 3-4 k more Spill visa soon.. Date may move to early 2008 for India. (Eb2) Even though all people will not get GC.

I know you are speculating here, but your comments makes me feel good.....and raises my hope, for that alone I am giving u a green.
**ANOTHER VDLRAO IN MAKING :-)

nayekal
01-20-2009, 06:06 PM
As far as I know, vertical split for unused EB1 numbers to EB2 started in April 2008,
so any one who wants to port based on this information will have to start with Labor,
for which it will take 3 months for advertising, then apply for labor. Assuming that
any body, who applied for labor, will get in 1 month, then it would be 04/01/2008 + 4
months = 08/01/2008, this is the time when some one can apply for I-140, which I am sure
will not be approved by this time.

My guess is EB2 porting never effected till now, but will effect in future, in case those
applicants got i-140 approvals will be eligible to apply in future.

But, my another guess is these applicants might have got their EB2 labor approvals and
by the time they applied and cases are in pending for I-140, we got this new rule for no EB2
for IT, might actually result in denials of EB2 I-140.

godspeed
01-20-2009, 06:30 PM
Interesting observation, however so far there is a record of applying any new regulations to future applications only, so my guess is even though they will not deny straight away pending EB2 I-140, but may raise several queries.

As far as I know, vertical split for unused EB1 numbers to EB2 started in April 2008,
so any one who wants to port based on this information will have to start with Labor,
for which it will take 3 months for advertising, then apply for labor. Assuming that
any body, who applied for labor, will get in 1 month, then it would be 04/01/2008 + 4
months = 08/01/2008, this is the time when some one can apply for I-140, which I am sure
will not be approved by this time.

My guess is EB2 porting never effected till now, but will effect in future, in case those
applicants got i-140 approvals will be eligible to apply in future.

But, my another guess is these applicants might have got their EB2 labor approvals and
by the time they applied and cases are in pending for I-140, we got this new rule for no EB2
for IT, might actually result in denials of EB2 I-140.

MDix
01-20-2009, 06:31 PM
Make Sense, gave green for that.
As far as I know, vertical split for unused EB1 numbers to EB2 started in April 2008,
so any one who wants to port based on this information will have to start with Labor,
for which it will take 3 months for advertising, then apply for labor. Assuming that
any body, who applied for labor, will get in 1 month, then it would be 04/01/2008 + 4
months = 08/01/2008, this is the time when some one can apply for I-140, which I am sure
will not be approved by this time.

My guess is EB2 porting never effected till now, but will effect in future, in case those
applicants got i-140 approvals will be eligible to apply in future.

But, my another guess is these applicants might have got their EB2 labor approvals and
by the time they applied and cases are in pending for I-140, we got this new rule for no EB2
for IT, might actually result in denials of EB2 I-140.

Thanks,
MDix

pointlesswait
01-20-2009, 06:37 PM
the time period to come back in line..would be close to 2 years.. how many do u think have actually done that...since June 2007?????
u are spreading rumors...


A vast number of EB3 India "consultants" working for Desi "companies" have already ported there eb3 dates to eb2 and because of this EB2 will not be current. I doubt it will even reach end of 2005 anytime soon. Non desi companies are not doing eb2 for IT but it is the desi "companies" and the "consultants" who work in these "companies" who have done these porting that have set the dates back. It is because of these desi "companies" and the "consultants" that DOL is putting restrictions on getting eb2 in IT. Anyway the damage has already been done. The problem with looking at EB2 perm approvals to guess if eb2 dates move forward is that it does not tell how many are from porting candidates. Atleast 50% of them are from desi "companies consultants" (just look at how many threads have been opened in IV by desi companies consultants asking for advise on how to porteb3 to eb2), so even tough they might have applied for eb2 in 06,07 or even 08 they are using 01,02 03 eb3 priority dates and jumping ahead of you. You dont have crooked chinese companies like desi companies that is why there is no porting going on in chinese eb2 whereas almost all the crooked desi comapnies and consultants are indulging in porting.

pointlesswait
01-20-2009, 06:39 PM
when did that come into effect??????
or is it in the pipeline???

snathan
01-20-2009, 07:08 PM
when did that come into effect??????
or is it in the pipeline???

Its there for 1-2 years and its basically business necessity. This is what I heard from my attorney.

man-woman-and-gc
01-20-2009, 07:34 PM
Its there for 1-2 years and its basically business necessity. This is what I heard from my attorney.

I don't think that is true. I got my I-140 Approval in EB2 with exactly 5 years of Job ex after Bachelors, a few months ago(in July 2008). And I am in IT.

Keeme
01-20-2009, 07:55 PM
May be I don't understand it or USCIS is not following processing dates as mentioned on their website.

How come USCIS can process I-485 which is filed in late 2007 ( after Sept ) or in 2008 ?

The processing times for all 4 centers for I485 - Employment based Immigrant applications never have crossed July or August 2007.

I see lot of I -485 approvals for EB1/2/3 ( Most of them of ROW for EB-2, few from India /China and other country on EB1 Categories) applications getting adjudicating which are filed in 2008 !!!

The only way we can get more visa for EB -2 India/China and EB-2 applications is to use max spill over from all other categories to EB2 and then when it becomes current for India/China , it can go to EB3- ROW and other countries.

"C" for EB1 and EB-2 ROW means they are eligible to file I-485 application ( EAD/AP also) but this applications can not be processed if processing dates are not current.

In order to get more visa available to backlogged applications, they have slower new PERM applications and hold I 485 processing time for all centers at Jun to Aug 2007.

* Can some one put this as a new thread ?...Thanks.

nayekal
01-21-2009, 12:24 AM
I don't think that is true. I got my I-140 Approval in EB2 with exactly 5 years of Job ex after Bachelors, a few months ago(in July 2008). And I am in IT.

Please look at the thread below.

Sorry, should have included this thread earlier, so that there is no confusion.

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=22242

amsgc
01-21-2009, 12:45 AM
Last year, around May, the top bosses at USCIS testified in front of a House Judiciary committee that the USCIS processes those cases first that have a chance of getting a visa number assigned in the near future. As a result:

1) EB3/EB2-I/C cases don't get adjudicated because they are not likely to get a visa number assigned
2) New EB2ROW and EB1 cases get adjudicated as soon as they are filed
3) This leaves less cases for overflow to retrogressed categories
4) The EB3/EB2-I/C dates don't move forward in any meaningful way
5) Threfore, we are back to 1.

The reason given by the USCIS for this approach (1) is to ensure that they don't waste any visa numbers. But this approach has exacerbated the already dire situation in which folks from retrogressed countries find themselves today.

May be I don't understand it or USCIS is not following processing dates as mentioned on their website.

How come USCIS can process I-485 which is filed in late 2007 ( after Sept ) or in 2008 ?

The processing times for all 4 centers for I485 - Employment based Immigrant applications never have crossed July or August 2007.

I see lot of I -485 approvals for EB1/2/3 ( Most of them of ROW for EB-2, few from India /China and other country on EB1 Categories) applications getting adjudicating which are filed in 2008 !!!

The only way we can get more visa for EB -2 India/China and EB-2 applications is to use max spill over from all other categories to EB2 and then when it becomes current for India/China , it can go to EB3- ROW and other countries.

"C" for EB1 and EB-2 ROW means they are eligible to file I-485 application ( EAD/AP also) but this applications can not be processed if processing dates are not current.

In order to get more visa available to backlogged applications, they have slower new PERM applications and hold I 485 processing time for all centers at Jun to Aug 2007.

* Can some one put this as a new thread ?...Thanks.

gc_check
01-21-2009, 09:07 AM
A vast number of EB3 India "consultants" working for Desi "companies" have already ported there eb3 dates to eb2 and because of this EB2 will not be current. I doubt it will even reach end of 2005 anytime soon. Non desi companies are not doing eb2 for IT but it is the desi "companies" and the "consultants" who work in these "companies" who have done these porting that have set the dates back. It is because of these desi "companies" and the "consultants" that DOL is putting restrictions on getting eb2 in IT. Anyway the damage has already been done. The problem with looking at EB2 perm approvals to guess if eb2 dates move forward is that it does not tell how many are from porting candidates. Atleast 50% of them are from desi "companies consultants" (just look at how many threads have been opened in IV by desi companies consultants asking for advise on how to porteb3 to eb2), so even tough they might have applied for eb2 in 06,07 or even 08 they are using 01,02 03 eb3 priority dates and jumping ahead of you. You dont have crooked chinese companies like desi companies that is why there is no porting going on in chinese eb2 whereas almost all the crooked desi comapnies and consultants are indulging in porting.

True to some extent. I work for a very large tech company now, before joining the company using AC21 for same job, I was in the same job through a US based large vendor company for many years and my labor was applied under EB3 by the vendor although I qualify for EB2 based on education/experience. The explanation from Attorney was the job did not qualify for EB2 back in 2003. Also know couple folks from Canada / India already worked directly for large tech company and all have EB3 labor except for 2 people who work for a Desi company, sub contracted to the same job through a vendor, but have a EB2 labor and one worried every day of getting approval and other already did. I don't know much details, except for them suggesting that I did a big mistake by not applying under EB2. Well, most Us companies go by books/law. This is just an example and most members here will have a story like this and know some one in EB2 or some one ported to EB2 using the old PD. Also in addition to that, that could be numerous substitution labor applied prior to July 07 rush as the sub was eliminated since than.. They could be labor from 00/01/02 that were utilized... So expecting the dates to become current is far from reality. It could happen only if some sort of Administration/Congressional intervention. Else, have to be patient.

snathan
01-21-2009, 11:34 AM
I don't think that is true. I got my I-140 Approval in EB2 with exactly 5 years of Job ex after Bachelors, a few months ago(in July 2008). And I am in IT.

Well. I mean to say - if you can prove the business necessity you can still apply in EB2.

Keeme
01-21-2009, 12:09 PM
Last year, around May, the top bosses at USCIS testified in front of a House Judiciary committee that the USCIS processes those cases first that have a chance of getting a visa number assigned in the near future. As a result:

1) EB3/EB2-I/C cases don't get adjudicated because they are not likely to get a visa number assigned
2) New EB2ROW and EB1 cases get adjudicated as soon as they are filed
3) This leaves less cases for overflow to retrogressed categories
4) The EB3/EB2-I/C dates don't move forward in any meaningful way
5) Threfore, we are back to 1.

The reason given by the USCIS for this approach (1) is to ensure that they don't waste any visa numbers. But this approach has exacerbated the already dire situation in which folks from retrogressed countries find themselves today.

I think what you are saying is USCIS said in that hearing and follows for the cases which are current in processing time. Let 's say they moved dates for EB2 India for 6 months in last visa bulletin, now they will approve cases which are more clear and not complex and ready to go and won't follow first-come-first out here.

What I'm saying is different - If processing dates are not current how come you application can be approved ?


****People who have filed their i-485 in 2008 can't be approved. 'C' in Visa bulletin means they can file I-485 file and USICS has to accept their application but USCIS have to process it as per their processing dates. ****

Does it make sense ?

MDix
01-21-2009, 03:03 PM
Can you pls post the link to the data .
China has PD of Jan 2005. I checked Labor data for China for 2005 , 2006 and 2007 and they have some 15k approval for labor ( Eb2 + Eb3 + others ). if we assume 50 % of them are EB2 then only 7.5k for 3 years.

Last year they got 6900 or so in Eb2 . If they get that many visas they will touch 2008 soon. If 50 % projection is more then they may become current.

as a Big country they may not spare some visas for india for horizontal spill but atleast they may not share from spill.

India will get 3-4 k more Spill visa soon.. Date may move to early 2008 for India. (Eb2) Even though all people will not get GC.

Thanks,
MDix

MDix
01-21-2009, 03:15 PM
Never mind got it here http://www.flcdatacenter.com/
Can you pls post the link to the data .


Thanks,
MDix

Thanks,
MDix

Ushakiran
01-21-2009, 03:53 PM
Unfortunately, your analysis is wrong. A National Interest Waiver (NIW) petition also falls into the employment-based immigration second preference category, but the labor certification requirement is waived for the sake of the "national interest."

I heard from some Chinese saying they have huge amount of NIW petitions, at least four or five times more than all PERM cases.

I would say, without any legislation change, both Chinese and Indian EB2/EB3 are hopeless at all. I hate to say that, but we have to face the truth.

MDix
01-21-2009, 04:12 PM
Here is the PERM data for INDIA

2008 = 17,174
2007 = 25000
2006 = 23000
2005 = 1140
2004 = 59 ( Something is wrong with DOL Data, Perm was not there at that time)

Total = 66373

If we say 25% EB2 then 16593.25
If we Say 50% then EB2 33186.

Source :: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

Does anybody has any clue what skill category does EB2 comes in so we can easily filter all EB2's.

Thanks,
Mdix

Jerrome
01-21-2009, 04:58 PM
Welcome to the number crunching.. I have done this some time back and given up.

First of all the database is based on approved date, so to get the actual data based on the PD look for date received column.

This is (EB2+EB3)
2005 8640 You have to see the received date in 2006 db there would be lot of them from 2005
2006 15421
2007 24573 (They removed this column in this database so you really don't know how many are filed in previous years).

Since we don't know how many are pending before 2004, we can not come up with any logical forecast.

You will have to wait and watch for cutoff dates to steadily progress towards to the end of 2004 before you could start your predictions. So far this has not happened(sudden jump to 2006 and back to 2003 etc).

If it indeed moves to end of 2004 before this July09 then it is really good. Everyone who has 2005 and 2006 has a GOOD chance of getting approved in last quarter, if not just very few would get it.

MDix
01-21-2009, 05:13 PM
30, 962 EB2-I Perm approval from 2005 to Sept 2008.
I did some cross data verfication against ETA case numbers which are filed in EB2 and came to conclusion that this the"LEVEL" field which defines EB2 or Eb3.


2008 - LEVEL II : 4000
2007 - LEVEL II : 11495
2006 - LEVEL II : 14616
2005 - LEVEL II : 841


Thank,
MDix,

gc_on_demand
01-21-2009, 05:23 PM
Welcome to the number crunching.. I have done this some time back and given up.

First of all the database is based on approved date, so to get the actual data based on the PD look for date received column.

This is (EB2+EB3)
2005 8640 You have to see the received date in 2006 db there would be lot of them from 2005
2006 15421
2007 24573 (They removed this column in this database so you really don't know how many are filed in previous years).

Since we don't know how many are pending before 2004, we can not come up with any logical forecast.

You will have to wait and watch for cutoff dates to steadily progress towards to the end of 2004 before you could start your predictions. So far this has not happened(sudden jump to 2006 and back to 2003 etc).

If it indeed moves to end of 2004 before this July09 then it is really good. Everyone who has 2005 and 2006 has a GOOD chance of getting approved in last quarter, if not just very few would get it.

Why should we worry if people applied in 2005 but still not approved. They all wont get approval in this year . There will be people ahead only who has approved labor.

I know it will not be accurate .. we should force USCIS to release those data.

Jerrome
01-21-2009, 05:38 PM
Good luck in getting that information. The reality is india got just 28,703 GCs in 2007 (EB1+2+3+dependents).

Refer http://www.dhs.gov/ximgtn/statistics/publications/LPR07.shtm

My guess is for EB2 Primary it would have been around 10000 last year assuming india got 20000 EB2 approvals last year.

It wont even come close to end of 2005 by end of this year(again steadily not including the jumbo jumps at last quarter to approve low hanging fruits).

Again as i said in my previous post, We can atleast guestimate if it steadily passes beyond 2004 this year.

MDix
01-21-2009, 06:03 PM
One more thing, there are only 7262 ROW EB2 Perm got certified (Including China, which 681) untill spet 2008. Looking at the current speed of DOL there would be addtional 3k EB2 approval till Jun 09. That makes minimum 20K left-over from ROW EB2 plus minimum 15K from EB1. So we are looking at 35K visa by end of Fiscl year.


Thanks,
MDix


30, 962 EB2-I Perm approval from 2005 to Sept 2008.
I did some cross data verfication against ETA case numbers which are filed in EB2 and came to conclusion that this the"LEVEL" field which defines EB2 or Eb3.


2008 - LEVEL II : 4000
2007 - LEVEL II : 11495
2006 - LEVEL II : 14616
2005 - LEVEL II : 841


Thank,
MDix,

Jerrome
01-21-2009, 11:28 PM
Level II is not 100% EB2, please search previous threads where ppl discussed about this in detail. i don't remember.

pkak
01-22-2009, 12:50 AM
China has PD of Jan 2005. I checked Labor data for China for 2005 , 2006 and 2007 and they have some 15k approval for labor ( Eb2 + Eb3 + others ). if we assume 50 % of them are EB2 then only 7.5k for 3 years.

Last year they got 6900 or so in Eb2 . If they get that many visas they will touch 2008 soon. If 50 % projection is more then they may become current.

as a Big country they may not spare some visas for india for horizontal spill but atleast they may not share from spill.

India will get 3-4 k more Spill visa soon.. Date may move to early 2008 for India. (Eb2) Even though all people will not get GC.

Where are the dependents factored in this calculation?

gc_on_demand
01-22-2009, 10:43 AM
Where are the dependents factored in this calculation?

Sorry I forgot to calculate them.... Now we have 1 more year to China become current..

MDix
01-27-2009, 02:07 PM
How about Level III and Level IV?
Level II is not 100% EB2, please search previous threads where ppl discussed about this in detail. i don't remember.



Thanks,
MDix

WaitingForMyGC
01-27-2009, 02:48 PM
Not a single person with Chargeability: China replied to this post. :-)