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View Full Version : EB2/EB3 slow forward movement ahead in 2009


mpadapa
02-11-2009, 10:23 AM
DOS recently released the visa usage statistics for FY 2008 (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY08-AR-TableV.pdf). For once USCIS managed to use up all the visas allocated for the year. Kudos to USCIS :D But it comes with a price for EB folks. For the past few years, forward movement of PD during the last months of the FY has been propelled due to the spillover of unused FB visa's from prior year. Remember last year almost 23k FB visas got spilled over to the EB limit and caused significant forward movement of PD's for EB2 I/C. Unfortunately in 2008 USCIS used up all of the FB visa's, hence there will be no visa's to spillover:mad: I had consolidated the visa usages in the past few years, Here is a link to the document (http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=p_liYSUcqZRXA9OjuWUNRag&hl=en). The document has hyper link to the source for all the data.

If you are EB3 I/C and wondering why dates didn't move in 2008. Here is the answer,
EB3-C and EB3-I got 1,985 and 3,576 visa's respectively. With such kind of visa allocation there is no doubt about why the dates aren't moving.

If you are EB2 I/C and dreaming that somehow the new spillover would take care of things. You might be pleasantly surprised by the usage of EB1 and EB2-ROW in 2008. Last year many were dreaming that all of the 23K FB visa's would directly go to EB2-I/C but the data shows otherwise. EB2-C and EB-I got 6,967 and 14,819 visa's respectively for the entire 2008. If all the 23K visa's were used by EB2-I/C then their respective numbers would have been much higher.

Bottom line: Without significant change in the EB limit through recapture or increase in EB limit. The forward movement of PD will be a trickle atleast for the rest of the year. We can pray and do whatever before every bulletins, but the numbers cannot lie and hence the bulletins would be a disappointment (for many) until we grasp the reality.

Let us get our acts together and start working together towards some constructive actions like a bill or an amendment. Let us have a healthy debate on what needs to be done.

arnab221
02-11-2009, 11:10 AM
On one hand we have VLD Rao crunching numbers like CRAY XMP and telling that EB2 will be close to current by End of the Year . On the other hand Mapadpa now says that the movement will be slow . I am a mere mortal and i am confused to the core on what to make of it ,

pointlesswait
02-11-2009, 11:16 AM
mapadapa..has numbers..and numbers dont lie...
i think EB movement will be gradual and it will maybe move to first qtr of 2005 by the end of this year(EB2).....no way will it be C..

On one hand we have VLD Rao crunching numbers like CRAY XMP and telling that EB2 will be close to current by End of the Year . On the other hand Mapadpa now says that the movement will be slow . I am a mere mortal and i am confused to the core on what to make of it ,

syedajmal
02-11-2009, 11:18 AM
While we work on bills, is there anything that can be done without a bill but from some kind of an order from the President's office or the Head of USCIS. Getting a bill thru congress in this climate seems next to impossible ( If we could just counter the -ve bills/amendments that would be significant).

What I am trying to say is there something somewhere that can be done with just one office making the decision then we can all make a concentrated effort towards that one office as we do have a few Legal immigration friendly people at every office.

Any ideas????

WaitingForMyGC
02-11-2009, 11:23 AM
On one hand we have VLD Rao crunching numbers like CRAY XMP and telling that EB2 will be close to current by End of the Year . On the other hand Mapadpa now says that the movement will be slow . I am a mere mortal and i am confused to the core on what to make of it ,


I believe in VLD Rao. He gives me hope. :-)

sanjay
02-11-2009, 11:29 AM
I believe in VLD Rao. He gives me hope. :-)

But, Mpadapa has some reality. That's what we are seeing in last 3 - 4 bulletins. A slow but steady movement.

Atleast with current movement we can plan in what period we can expect our case will clear.

reddymjm
02-11-2009, 11:31 AM
No one can predict USCIS.

realizeit
02-11-2009, 11:34 AM
I personally think Mr. MPADAPA's assumption is wrong. Last year (2008), the spillover came from Family quota of 2008. Spillover from Family or Employment quota of a particular year cannot be given to the following year. So the fact that there is nothing left from the family quota of 2008 doesn't change any situation here.

So, this year the spillover that Employment category can get from Family quota will be the unused numbers of 2009 Family quota.
This is just my thought!

DOS recently released the visa usage statistics for FY 2008 (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY08-AR-TableV.pdf). For once USCIS managed to use up all the visas allocated for the year. Kudos to USCIS :D But it comes with a price for EB folks. For the past few years, forward movement of PD during the last months of the FY has been propelled due to the spillover of unused FB visa's from prior year. Remember last year almost 23k FB visas got spilled over to the EB limit and caused significant forward movement of PD's for EB2 I/C. Unfortunately in 2008 USCIS used up all of the FB visa's, hence there will be no visa's to spillover:mad: I had consolidated the visa usages in the past few years, Here is a link to the document (http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=p_liYSUcqZRXA9OjuWUNRag&hl=en). The document has hyper link to the source for all the data.

If you are EB3 I/C and wondering why dates didn't move in 2008. Here is the answer,
EB3-C and EB3-I got 1,985 and 3,576 visa's respectively. With such kind of visa allocation there is no doubt about why the dates aren't moving.

If you are EB2 I/C and dreaming that somehow the new spillover would take care of things. You might be pleasantly surprised by the usage of EB1 and EB2-ROW in 2008. Last year many were dreaming that all of the 23K FB visa's would directly go to EB2-I/C but the data shows otherwise. EB2-C and EB-I got 6,967 and 14,819 visa's respectively for the entire 2008. If all the 23K visa's were used by EB2-I/C then their respective numbers would have been much higher.

Bottom line: Without significant change in the EB limit through recapture or increase in EB limit. The forward movement of PD will be a trickle atleast for the rest of the year. We can pray and do whatever before every bulletins, but the numbers cannot lie and hence the bulletins would be a disappointment (for many) until we grasp the reality.

Let us get our acts together and start working together towards some constructive actions like a bill or an amendment. Let us have a healthy debate on what needs to be done.

waitforgc1
02-11-2009, 11:38 AM
But, Mpadapa has some reality. That's what we are seeing in last 3 - 4 bulletins. A slow but steady movement.

Atleast with current movement we can plan in what period we can expect our case will clear.

I totally agree..

gcdreamer05
02-11-2009, 11:43 AM
I saw the doc great work and thanks for putting in teh effort.

So in layman terms can you please explain, how many EB3 visas are allocated per month or per year and how many are necessary as per your doc, that will atleast help us understand how slow its gonna move,

are we talking about 15 days in one visa bulletin movement for EB3 or 30 days (1month) movement in one visa bulletin.

If we can do this , then we can predict how long it would take?

gcdreamer05
02-11-2009, 11:45 AM
But, Mpadapa has some reality. That's what we are seeing in last 3 - 4 bulletins. A slow but steady movement.

Atleast with current movement we can plan in what period we can expect our case will clear.

But brother, there has been no movement in EB3, so based on what will we predict when our case will be clear...........

easygoer
02-11-2009, 12:11 PM
They change this number later in the year, since some of the FB visa allocated are retruned back to the pool (if the person getting GC does not enter the country in specified time).



They allocated a huge chunk of EB2 Visa to South Korea 7125 (currnet all through the year). Same with EB3 SK got 4727 (close to sum of India and China).

So i agree things will move slower this year but still move forward. We will not see an EB2/3 India/China Current any time soon unless they screw-up again like july 07.

sachung22,

Approximately what cut off dates your expect for EB2/3 by Aug'09?

senthil1
02-11-2009, 12:18 PM
Eb2 will move gradually but it may move up to 2006 or 2007 as Eb1 spill over and Eb1 and Eb2 spillover from other countries will be transferred to Indian and Chinese Eb2. Again it depends on how many people are waiting in Eb2

sachung22,

Approximately what cut off dates your expect for EB2/3 by Aug'09?

mpadapa
02-11-2009, 12:21 PM
arnab221, I greatly respect your opinion. Here is the primary assumption from the famous thread EB2 will be current in a year (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=20185).

I presume EB2 India will be current by next October. Till now for EB2 India there are only 1/3 of 7% of 140K visas which are 3,266. Due to the new change of horizontal fall outs EB2 India exclusively getting about 32k visas, very little share to china. So this change making an availability of about 30k aditional visas to EB2 India along with regular 3,266. So total About 32K visas for EB2 India. This includes unused Family Visa Numbers as well. So from now on EB2 India getting almost 10 times more visas.

And due to the change to Horizontal Fall out of Visa Numbers from Vertical Fall outs, Its not the India which loses but its EB3 ROW.

From the DOS data we know EB2-I got only 14,819 instead of 32K assumed in the above quote. We all hope things would be better but reality seems to be different.


On one hand we have VLD Rao crunching numbers like CRAY XMP and telling that EB2 will be close to current by End of the Year . On the other hand Mapadpa now says that the movement will be slow . I am a mere mortal and i am confused to the core on what to make of it ,

pappu
02-11-2009, 12:37 PM
DOS recently released the visa usage statistics for FY 2008 (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY08-AR-TableV.pdf). For once USCIS managed to use up all the visas allocated for the year. Kudos to USCIS :D But it comes with a price for EB folks. For the past few years, forward movement of PD during the last months of the FY has been propelled due to the spillover of unused FB visa's from prior year. Remember last year almost 23k FB visas got spilled over to the EB limit and caused significant forward movement of PD's for EB2 I/C. Unfortunately in 2008 USCIS used up all of the FB visa's, hence there will be no visa's to spillover:mad: I had consolidated the visa usages in the past few years, Here is a link to the document (http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=p_liYSUcqZRXA9OjuWUNRag&hl=en). The document has hyper link to the source for all the data.

If you are EB3 I/C and wondering why dates didn't move in 2008. Here is the answer,
EB3-C and EB3-I got 1,985 and 3,576 visa's respectively. With such kind of visa allocation there is no doubt about why the dates aren't moving.

If you are EB2 I/C and dreaming that somehow the new spillover would take care of things. You might be pleasantly surprised by the usage of EB1 and EB2-ROW in 2008. Last year many were dreaming that all of the 23K FB visa's would directly go to EB2-I/C but the data shows otherwise. EB2-C and EB-I got 6,967 and 14,819 visa's respectively for the entire 2008. If all the 23K visa's were used by EB2-I/C then their respective numbers would have been much higher.

Bottom line: Without significant change in the EB limit through recapture or increase in EB limit. The forward movement of PD will be a trickle atleast for the rest of the year. We can pray and do whatever before every bulletins, but the numbers cannot lie and hence the bulletins would be a disappointment (for many) until we grasp the reality.

Let us get our acts together and start working together towards some constructive actions like a bill or an amendment. Let us have a healthy debate on what needs to be done.

Good analysis.
I do however hope for little extra movement than what we have seen this year for EB2 I and C due to horizontal allocation. However Eb2 still has good enough retrogression and we should not see any big jumps in dates. EB3 maybe a different story without any legislation or any fix.

pappu
02-11-2009, 12:46 PM
Eb2 will move gradually but it may move up to 2006 or 2007 as Eb1 spill over and Eb1 and Eb2 spillover from other countries will be transferred to Indian and Chinese Eb2. Again it depends on how many people are waiting in Eb2

I do not have the numbers in front of me, but I think the EB1 spillover numbers have been reduced over time. EB1 gets lot of usage in the EB1C (multinational managers) for India.

vkannan
02-11-2009, 02:45 PM
Looking at the .PDFs and the law on spillover, I agree with MPADAPAs analysis. Still hope that there would be spillovers from unused EB visa...sure it will be less compared to last year....but atleast feel/hope it would be enought to get through 2006....atleast for EB2 guys....

Jerrome
02-11-2009, 02:48 PM
i agree.There are 2 reasons.
1. Last year EB2(I) received only 7K primary EB2(14kTotal/2).My guess is that there are definitly more than 7K pending for EB2(I) before 2005.

2. This year there won't be much FB spillover.So we may not even get 7K for EB2(I) this year.

widad2020
02-11-2009, 02:55 PM
I think MPADAPA' assumption about FB quota usage is not correct and I completely agree with realizeit.
Greatwork .
I personally think Mr. MPADAPA's assumption is wrong. Last year (2008), the spillover came from Family quota of 2008. Spillover from Family or Employment quota of a particular year cannot be given to the following year. So the fact that there is nothing left from the family quota of 2008 doesn't change any situation here.

So, this year the spillover that Employment category can get from Family quota will be the unused numbers of 2009 Family quota.
This is just my thought!

MDix
02-11-2009, 02:58 PM
That's absolutely right.
I personally think Mr. MPADAPA's assumption is wrong. Last year (2008), the spillover came from Family quota of 2008. Spillover from Family or Employment quota of a particular year cannot be given to the following year. So the fact that there is nothing left from the family quota of 2008 doesn't change any situation here.

So, this year the spillover that Employment category can get from Family quota will be the unused numbers of 2009 Family quota.
This is just my thought!


Thanks,
MDix

mpadapa
02-11-2009, 03:03 PM
Thanks for the comments. Its not my assumptions, it is the law.
Please checkout how the spillovers between EB and FB are arrived. Here is the link
http://www4.law.cornell.edu/uscode/uscode08/usc_sec_08_00001151----000-.html



I personally think Mr. MPADAPA's assumption is wrong. Last year (2008), the spillover came from Family quota of 2008. Spillover from Family or Employment quota of a particular year cannot be given to the following year. So the fact that there is nothing left from the family quota of 2008 doesn't change any situation here.

So, this year the spillover that Employment category can get from Family quota will be the unused numbers of 2009 Family quota.
This is just my thought!

dskhabra
02-11-2009, 03:12 PM
EB2 I should get more spill over from EB2 ROW that what it got last year. The number of labor approvals is very less after June 2008( someone posted it earlier in some other thread). EB2 ROW is always current and I think the usage should be low this year.

MDix
02-11-2009, 04:19 PM
Thanks for the link . After reading the doc your analysis does make sense.
I am just confused that how they assigned 70K EB2 visas in 2008. Because EB2 share is
40k + 4k(EB1 left over)+? how many FB = 70k . So from above it looks like all FB leftover went to EB2.

Please clearify.

Thanks,
Mdix

Thanks for the comments. Its not my assumptions, it is the law.
Please checkout how the spillovers between EB and FB are arrived. Here is the link
http://www4.law.cornell.edu/uscode/uscode08/usc_sec_08_00001151----000-.html

LostInGCProcess
02-11-2009, 04:43 PM
With all these analysis, is there any formula to actually predict when one could get the GC? I was just curious to know when I could potentially get my GC although I stopped worrying about it a very long time ago.

Thanks.

nixstor
02-11-2009, 05:23 PM
Thanks for the comments. Its not my assumptions, it is the law.
Please checkout how the spillovers between EB and FB are arrived. Here is the link
http://www4.law.cornell.edu/uscode/uscode08/usc_sec_08_00001151----000-.html

My 0.02

mpadapa,

Thats a good analysis. As you noted EB-2 India got only 14K visas as opposed to other predictions of 30-32K visas. I have long said that the variable here is how EB1 and EB-2 ROW demand numbers. A lot of folks assumed that all the spill over will end up in the EB-2 I/C lap. It does not as long as there is no retrogression across the entire EB-2 category severely, making the old PD golden (this is not going to happen) or there is very less demand for EB1 and EB2-ROW numbers.

While I agree with your analysis, I feel that the number of employers/applicants filing for Labor/140/485 has started a downward spiral in 2008. This means lesser demand for EB1 and EB-2 ROW numbers making the numbers available to EB-2 I & C. Again, it is very well possible that there are just enough number of people from both Eb1 & EB-2 ROW categories left & entering in the system to deny the numbers to EB-2 I & C. Unless the state of the economy continues like this, shedding 600K jobs in one month, equal to number jobs in the state of Maine, we can't say that EB-2 I & C can become close to current or leap into 2007 and beyond. Then we might be current and have a GC but the economic situation would be so worse that people don't care for GC. God Forbid we have to see that and lets hope and pray that the Stimulus will resuscitate the economy

LostInGCProcess
02-11-2009, 05:24 PM
I found the formual still working on the variables :-)

http://www.acm.org/crossroads/xrds9-4/gfx/equation008.gif

:D:D:D Wow!! that was so simple, Thanks.... :D:D:D:D

realizeit
02-11-2009, 05:27 PM
Still I disagree my friend. I know, law is the law! What I am disagreeing is your interpretation and conclusion.

In reality, towards the end of the Fiscal year, if USCIS/State Dept finds that visas will go unused in one category, they can use the spill over rules. So, if there are some potential unused visas in Family category they can add it to Employment category and vice versa. This will all work in the same year. It will not work or get transferred to a following year. In your initial argument, you said, because all the family visas for 2008 are completely used, we won't get anything from that category as spill over during this year (2009).

If your argument is correct, there won't be any need for recapture laws that we all are working for. If the unused can be given to the next year, no visa will get wasted. USCIS/DOS can just give the unused in family category to Employment category in the following year and vice versa.

In reality that is not the case. Visa number in one year will not flow to the next. So, your original argument is completely wrong. If there is nothing left in family category for the year 2008, that has nothing to do with the expected spill over to Employment category from family category in 2009.

In my opinion, law is complex and snippets of the law from here and there won't will not clarify anything. So, if anyone would like to be optimistic, stay there, to be pessimistic, stay there - this whole argument by MPADAPA is not enough to change your state of mind :) Just my observation!



Thanks for the comments. Its not my assumptions, it is the law.
Please checkout how the spillovers between EB and FB are arrived. Here is the link
http://www4.law.cornell.edu/uscode/uscode08/usc_sec_08_00001151----000-.html

hydboy77
02-11-2009, 06:08 PM
vdl rao is an irrational person. without any sound reasoning he started that stupid thread "eb2 India will be current", when I tried to point out something about the amount of eb3 to eb2 portings going on and how this will set the eb2 dates back significantly I was given red dots (what else can they do). The people in that thread were halucinating about eb2 being current. Reality should now set in, there in no way eb2 is even going to 2006 anytime soon. This is the sad reality.

Last year there were only about 3 to 4k spillover from eb1 to eb2, eb2 row pretty much consumed all the eb2 row numbers and there was no spillover from eb2 row to eb2 india and eb2 china.

If the same trend continues we might get 3k spillover to eb2 india\china which will advance PD by a month. Some people are hoping that because of the bad economy there might not be many eb1 applications and that will lead to spillover to eb2, that is wrong assumption, the people getting approval in eb1 in 2009 are people who applied in 2008 and earlier when the economy was doing good, lay offs started only in nov-dec of 2008. Even if eb1 applications drop because of bad economy the results would be reflected in 2010 and not in 2009.

USCIS is not going to waste any visa numbers anymore. That means the last rollover from FB to eb has already happened in 2008 and might not happen ever again.

mpadapa
02-11-2009, 06:44 PM
realizeit, you just didn't get the unused visa calculation.
By the way your interpretation quoted below is exactly what numbersUSA used to claim that there is no visa available for recapture. And they used that argument to shoot down our recapture bill.

Knowing that PD's aren't going to move forward drastically, we need to start working towards some thing drastic like a bill/amendment. Or we can sit and mull over it and wait until the second week of Aug (when Sep bulletin is announced) to show our frustration.


If your argument is correct, there won't be any need for recapture laws that we all are working for. If the unused can be given to the next year, no visa will get wasted. USCIS/DOS can just give the unused in family category to Employment category in the following year and vice versa.

realizeit
02-12-2009, 12:53 AM
Mr MPADAPA,

I know you have spent some time analyzing the whole stuff and came with your conclusions. At the end, if someone says that the crux of your conclusions are wrong, for an emotional person, it would be tough to take. A rational person would take it lightly and think before responding. In your immediate previous reply, you just cherry picked a quote from my previous reply and put that as my interpretation. Please do not put words into my mouth. My reply has been pasted below in its entirety.

You have campared the paragraph with NumbersUSA argument etc. Dear friend, my argument was exactly opposite to that paragraph. I think, you didn't get the meaning of the paragraph itself. My paragraph contained phrases like "If your argument is correct..", ". If the unused can be given to ..". etc, which makes the argument exactly opposite to what mentioned there. So, that means I believe exactly opposite to those arguments.

I acknowledge that you have every right to interpret the law in whichever way you want. My point is that, it really doesn't matter to all of the folks who applied in EB2 and waiting for GC. The thing that really matters is the way in which USCIS acts this year. They can act in whatever way they want. This year, if they say, there won't be any family visa wastage, we will get nothing. Contrary to that, if they see that by the end of the year there is a chance for 15K family vis wastage, they may allocate that to employment category.

To all EB2 folks out there: No need to really feel bad or happy about the analysis of Mr. MPADAPA.

My general advice to anyone who put forward an argument for propaganda and a campaign is: Don't massage the facts, don't twist the facts, don't over analyze, don't under analyze, Also don't say that your interpretation is the final verdict. Because, even if we can analyze all the immigration related laws in the whole Federal register, we may not be able to come to a final conclusion....!! Why? Because you don't have a clue what is in the field manual and internal memos of the USCIS and you don't know how they procedurely allocate spill over etc on each year. As long as USCIS and DOS can use the terms "In Anticipation..", "As per our expectations..", no one will be able to hold them accountable for the visa wastage.

MPADAPA..you may continue your argument/discussions, if you think this is a moot point. But I don't believe so.

If you can prove your initial basic argument with complete facts and details, I will openly declare, I am wrong! Your original argument was "Since the family category used up all Visa numbers in 2008, in 2009 EB2 cannot expect any spill over from Family category and hence we need to expect slow movement....".

Instead of proving the above, you may cherry pick my statements and continue to beat about the bush. I am giving up here my friend.

Good luck :)




realizeit, you just didn't get the unused visa calculation.
By the way your interpretation quoted below is exactly what numbersUSA used to claim that there is no visa available for recapture. And they used that argument to shoot down our recapture bill.

Knowing that PD's aren't going to move forward drastically, we need to start working towards some thing drastic like a bill/amendment. Or we can sit and mull over it and wait until the second week of Aug (when Sep bulletin is announced) to show our frustration.

My complete earlier reply

Still I disagree my friend. I know, law is the law! What I am disagreeing is your interpretation and conclusion.

In reality, towards the end of the Fiscal year, if USCIS/State Dept finds that visas will go unused in one category, they can use the spill over rules. So, if there are some potential unused visas in Family category they can add it to Employment category and vice versa. This will all work in the same year. It will not work or get transferred to a following year. In your initial argument, you said, because all the family visas for 2008 are completely used, we won't get anything from that category as spill over during this year (2009).

If your argument is correct, there won't be any need for recapture laws that we all are working for. If the unused can be given to the next year, no visa will get wasted. USCIS/DOS can just give the unused in family category to Employment category in the following year and vice versa.

In reality that is not the case. Visa number in one year will not flow to the next. So, your original argument is completely wrong. If there is nothing left in family category for the year 2008, that has nothing to do with the expected spill over to Employment category from family category in 2009.

In my opinion, law is complex and snippets of the law from here and there won't will not clarify anything. So, if anyone would like to be optimistic, stay there, to be pessimistic, stay there - this whole argument by MPADAPA is not enough to change your state of mind :) Just my observation!

mpadapa
02-12-2009, 10:39 AM
My document uses similar method as used in 2007 USCIS Ombudsman report.
Here is the link to my document - link (http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=p_liYSUcqZRXA9OjuWUNRag&hl=en)
Similar table can be found in Ombudsman report - link (http://www.aila.org/content/fileviewer.aspx?docid=22650&linkid=162315) Look at Page 34 ( 52 / 145 )

The numbers in my report would be off by < +/- 50 visa's because I am using published data and Ombudsman uses internal DOS data.

The bottom line is EB limit has enjoyed spillover from unused FB visas and this year it is not going to happen. In the past we have been used to EB limits of 154K (2007), 163K (2008), this year we have to get used to the original limit 140K The movement of PD of various categories would take their own coarse based on USCIS interpretation of spillover between categories.

It would be great if members can update their profiles so that IV can do a better job of estimating the forward movement using the tracker.

hydboy77
02-12-2009, 11:05 AM
DOS and USCIS are making sure no visas are being wasted in any category whether it is FB or EB category. In this situation we cannot expect any FB visa wastage and spillover of those FB wasted visa in EB category anymore. Without the FB spillover there will not be any forward movement in EB2 during the august-september visa bulletin. Mpadapa analysis seems to be correct and is also backed by facts and numbers. With only 140k visas for EB and without any FB spillover we might actually see dates moving back and staying stagnant for EB2 india. Remember Eb2 india has never managed to move beyond April 1 2004 without the FB spillover in the last quarter.This is a terrible shock to everybody in EB2 India, I have been saying this all along that EB2 will be stagnant or move backward (because of eb3 line cutters).

My document uses similar method as used in 2007 USCIS Ombudsman report.
Here is the link to my document - link (http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=p_liYSUcqZRXA9OjuWUNRag&hl=en)
Similar table can be found in Ombudsman report - link (http://www.aila.org/content/fileviewer.aspx?docid=22650&linkid=162315) Look at Page 34 ( 52 / 145 )

The numbers in my report would be off by < +/- 50 visa's because I am using published data and Ombudsman uses internal DOS data.

The bottom line is EB limit has enjoyed spillover from unused FB visas and this year it is not going to happen. In the past we have been used to EB limits of 154K (2007), 163K (2008), this year we have to get used to the original limit 140K The movement of PD of various categories would take their own coarse based on USCIS interpretation of spillover between categories.

It would be great if members can update their profiles so that IV can do a better job of estimating the forward movement using the tracker.

suren1
02-12-2009, 12:41 PM
As per data - EB3 is dead horse for rest of the FY
:mad:

MDix
02-12-2009, 01:49 PM
Some hopes.........

http://immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7168&page=2

Thanks
MDix

chi_shark
02-12-2009, 02:35 PM
so for folks who are in the queue with USCIS in the states now (485 applied), can we change over to consular processing now?

Some hopes.........

http://immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7168&page=2

Thanks
MDix

MDix
02-13-2009, 04:15 PM
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=97e19c337879d110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=54519c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD

Please share your thoughts.

Thanks,
MDix

trishanku
02-13-2009, 04:46 PM
mpadapa,

You are right that spill over of 23020 visas from family based category contributed to movements in EB2 categories, however that was not the only spill over that happened. There were 12144 unused visas in EB-4 and EB-5 category which also spilled over. You could argue that those visas spill over to EB-1, however EB-1 had usage of 36591 visas last year compared to maximum allocation of 40040 visas which meeans that EB-1 also had 3449 unused visas. This means that there was a spill over of 15593 visas just from EB-4,EB-5 and EB-1 category.

So there will definately be some spill over this year if you assume same usage level as last year. How much? I am not sure yet.

I have my analysis in an excel file, i tried to upload it here as zip file, but it seems to be failing.

Gilmout
02-13-2009, 04:58 PM
Guys - I asked my lawyer about the predicted time frame of my case which is EB3 ROW priority date of October 2005. I asked specifically if my case would be approved in a matter of months or years. They said that my case would most likely take years!

I don't really understand how the process works - how could it be years when my priority date is only 4 months away. Does anyone have any explanation why this would be the case.

This lawyer has been great for me and I trust what they say but I am not sure about the prediction - if anyone could shed any light on this I would be so grateful.

nousername
02-13-2009, 09:21 PM
Not related to this thread but I did not want to open a new thread for this question..

As you can see I am EB2-I (info above) and am waiting in line for my turn but I am just wondering if L1 route to GC is quicker? If so then how?

Not that I am trying to do it because I can not :) but I know someone who just got his GC via L1 in matter of months and here we all EB guys are waiting..

Thanks.

aachoo
02-13-2009, 11:08 PM
Not related to this thread but I did not want to open a new thread for this question..

As you can see I am EB2-I (info above) and am waiting in line for my turn but I am just wondering if L1 route to GC is quicker? If so then how?

Not that I am trying to do it because I can not :) but I know someone who just got his GC via L1 in matter of months and here we all EB guys are waiting..

Thanks.

I know people (Indian) who have applied for EB1 after being in L1 for a couple of years and got the GC in 6 months. There is a category for International Manager (or something similar) that qualifies them for EB1.
-a

oliTwist
02-14-2009, 12:47 PM
Is it a people manager or product manager category? Any idea what documents do you need for EB1?

aachoo
02-14-2009, 01:32 PM
Is it a people manager or product manager category? Any idea what documents do you need for EB1?

Not a people manager AFAIK. I think it is a group lead position but no poeple manager responsibility.