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zerokoder
05-21-2009, 11:11 PM
Hello friends,

Like many of you, I am in the waiting line for my PD to be current (mine is EB2I-9/2007).
I wanted to do some worst-case-wait scenario analysis so that I can make an educated
guess as to when my number will be up. Based on my limited knowledge and after seeing
the past bulletin dates (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/Past_Visa_Bulletin_Data),
I made this guess. Immigration experts.. please critique it and point
out the falacies, unknown factors that I didn't account for, etc. I am involved in
this only for an year or so, so I am not an expert by any means..

This is only for EB2-India. I would love to see someone do a similar analysis for
other categories. In the calculations, I am discounting final three months,
since it is a temporary advancement that won't hold over to next year.

Retrogression started in 2006 (No clue why.. anyone?)
In 2006, the dates where stable around 1/2003
In 2007, it stayed around 1/2003
In 2008, it moves erratically, but is stable around 1/2004
In 2009, it is stable around 2/2004

So when PD was set to 2003, it was satisfied by 2006 and 2007's quota.
when PD was set to 2004, let us hope that it will be satisfied by 2008 and 2009.

Now, this relation is one to two, assuming the number of 485s filed haven't changed
over the years, I arrive at this..

2010 - PD will be around 1/2005
2011 - PD will be around 1/2005
2012 - PD will be around 1/2006
2013 - PD will be around 1/2006
2014 - PD will be around 1/2007
2015 - PD will be around 1/2007
2016 - PD will be around 1/2008
2017 - PD will be around 1/2008

We can almost be certain that the number of 485s filed around 2005-2008 will
not be same as 2003-2004 period. Before 2008 bust, economy was booming, especially
in the IT sector. So in some cases, it may take more than two years to get over
one year's demand.

Anyone has more-number oriented analysis along the same route? I am sure lot of
people have spent hours over it. And if any one knows a post with better analysis,
can you please post the link?

This all assumes there is no change in current situation (No CIR, no quota change etc.)
Before you all jump on me for not contributing, participating etc.. let me say that
I believe that IV is doing a great job and activism is our only hope. I plan to contribute
and get involved soon.

dvb123
05-21-2009, 11:24 PM
Retrogression started around september 2005. In 2000 year when Clinton was stepping down a bill was passed which was called american competitiveness act 2001 which gave quarter million EB numbers extra to the regular pool. This was exahausted in 2005 september. So lot of people do not know about this and wonder why some colleagues from 2002, 2003 got GC which others are rusting their EAD's and AP's. I think IV should put a video in the front page explaining retrogression or EB applicants will blame their karma and not contribute a dime to IV.

India was and will be retrogressed

May 1999 visa bulletin
http://www.visalaw.com/99apr/7apr99.html

It was only during Clinton time that AC21 bill was passed and we got 250,000 visa numbers. Otherwise retrogression would have been a part and parcel of time since time immemorial. Pls give me greens before somebody drowns me in red.

forgerator
05-22-2009, 02:14 AM
can anyone crunch some numbers for EB3 ? I'm willing to bet its at least 1.5x worse than EB2

piyu7444
05-22-2009, 02:30 AM
Retrogression started around september 2005. In 2000 year when Clinton was stepping down a bill was passed which was called american competitiveness act 2001 which gave quarter million EB numbers extra to the regular pool. This was exahausted in 2005 september. So lot of people do not know about this and wonder why some colleagues from 2002, 2003 got GC which others are rusting their EAD's and AP's. I think IV should put a video in the front page explaining retrogression or EB applicants will blame their karma and not contribute a dime to IV.

India was and will be retrogressed

May 1999 visa bulletin
http://www.visalaw.com/99apr/7apr99.html

It was only during Clinton time that AC21 bill was passed and we got 250,000 visa numbers. Otherwise retrogression would have been a part and parcel of time since time immemorial. Pls give me greens before somebody drowns me in red.

I did not have had a clue about it so thanks for posting it here......

zerokoder
05-22-2009, 02:42 AM
Thanks, dvb123.. I had no clue either..

Now I am beginning to understand the depth of the situation..

lord_labaku
05-22-2009, 02:43 AM
This is worst case scenario with NO spillover...in reality there should be enough spillover from EB1 & EB2 ROW to be somewhat better than the dates listed by the OP.

mantric
05-22-2009, 02:54 AM
Here's a basic analysis which is easy to do in a spreadsheet.

Assign a number to each of the months in column1. Suppose we start from Jan 2000, then Jan 2000 would be 1, Feb 2000 would be 2 ... Dec 2010 would be 120.

For each visa bulletin since retrogression started, list against number of the current month, the month for which the priority date is current according to the visa bulletin for that month in column2. This needs a 1-time data collection for each category from all the visa bulletins. IV can easily tabulate such data.

Then find the "PD lag time" or "retrogression time" in months as number of current month - number of PD date according to the bulletin in column3. Looking at this figure gives you a fair idea of the trend - whether it is shrinking or growing.

Now the task is to predict the "PD lag time" for future months.
Simple way is to do linear extrapolation. Excel has built-in functions for it. Add back this predicted lag with the current month for future months in column4. When this date goes beyond your PD then you can reasonably expect to get your GC, assuming things stay relatively constant.

A rough estimate for EB2 I : add 6 years to your PD. Which is in line with estimate of OP.

nightowl76
05-22-2009, 03:39 AM
USCIS has never adhered to logical trends when processing EB applications. Is there any formula that would have concluded that all categories would become current in July 2007? Or any formula to explain why in 2008, EB2-I applicants with PD's in 2006 were approved while earlier ones were not? And now EB2-I is retrogressed to 2001. Why? Simple answer, cuz USCIS chooses to.

Since most of us are engineers here, we tend to be data driven and use logic and reason to make predictions. While this is almost always a good practice, time and again it has proven frustratingly inaccurate in this case. So if you're doing this as a hobby (and there's nothing wrong with that, its a good statistical project), that's fine. But don't rely on these analysis' to predict your wait time. Besides USCIS' random pickings, there are many other factors that can change these short term and long term predictions.

simple1
05-22-2009, 03:52 AM
dvb123, Great post. It takes the myth out.

mantric
05-22-2009, 06:09 AM
You're right that lot of things can change.

However the OP asked for a crude analysis, not an exact prediction.
While the variance in PD movements is high you'll find that the mean for PD lag follows a more predictable trend. It allows one to make a more informed decision for the average case, rather than the monthly gyrations which cause periodic hope and despair. Seeing the trend for what it is may also impact your decision to contribute.

hiralal
05-22-2009, 07:45 AM
good posts in this thread.
so in short - unless some law passes the wait times will be long.
the only campaign that we can and should have is to show that we are legal immi, in the queue for a long long time and it is in everyone's interest to give us faster GC's

thomachan72
05-22-2009, 08:46 AM
before this retrogression in May bulletin, people with PD 2003 were being issued cards. I dont thing they had started or issued anybody with PD 2004 cards. So basically we are looking at around 6 years. The july 07 fiasco only caused increased issuance of EADs/APs. It did not suddently increase the visa applicants because all of those who applied were already in line, except for those 140s which apparently were transfered / sold as somebody was mentioning here. But even then those were all in que. Hopefully if things are streamlined they might be able to get it down to 4-5 years time.

GCAmigo
05-22-2009, 09:29 AM
Thanks, dvb123.. I had no clue either..

Now I am beginning to understand the depth of the situation..

Simply google for 245i & you will know a lot more!

~GCA

software7
05-22-2009, 11:14 AM
before this retrogression in May bulletin, people with PD 2003 were being issued cards. I dont thing they had started or issued anybody with PD 2004 cards. So basically we are looking at around 6 years. The july 07 fiasco only caused increased issuance of EADs/APs. It did not suddently increase the visa applicants because all of those who applied were already in line, except for those 140s which apparently were transfered / sold as somebody was mentioning here. But even then those were all in que. Hopefully if things are streamlined they might be able to get it down to 4-5 years time.

Hi ALl,

Got following info from one of my friend , this reliable information sent by Senator office.

TSC: NSC Total

EB1: 1030. 1723 2753
EB2: 22029 29688 51717
EB3: 34784 36054 70838

gc_on_demand
05-22-2009, 11:40 AM
Visa bulletin prediction is very hard. So many factors. such as

(1) Spill over and how ?
(2) Eb3 to Eb2 porting
(3) USCIS effeciancy


As per me those senator's figure seems true to me. There should not be more than 55k pending app for Eb2 India. last year India Eb2 got some what 10k.It could be more this year but Spill over funda is counter by USCIS effeciancy.

USCIS has improved process and pre adustment so all old cases for Eb2 ROW and Eb1 and EB4 and Eb5 are now getting approved. So there were much more numbers from low filling of GC in late 2008 , 2009 but those extra numbers are chewed by USCIS effeciancy.

taking this fact into account If Eb2 india will get 10k spill. then it will take 5 years to clear people till June 2007. Math is simple and go figure out if you are in 2008 or 2009....as OP said it was floating for 2004 for Fiscal 2008 and 2009 I am positive that this year spill Aug -Sep bulletin will bring Eb2 india and China to end of 2005. That's it........

2006 and 2007 has average 20k Eb2 app. 2008 has 20k too. Economy was good in first 3quater (USCIS quater ) of 2008.

with out VISA RECAPTURE THIS WILL BE TIME TABLE. And it can get delayed as USCIS imroves efficiany ..

2006 case -- 2010 - 2011

2007 case - 2012 - 2013

2008 case - 2014 - 2015

Jerrome
05-22-2009, 11:56 AM
Hello friends,

Like many of you, I am in the waiting line for my PD to be current (mine is EB2I-9/2007).
I wanted to do some worst-case-wait scenario analysis so that I can make an educated
guess as to when my number will be up. Based on my limited knowledge and after seeing
the past bulletin dates (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/Past_Visa_Bulletin_Data),
I made this guess. Immigration experts.. please critique it and point
out the falacies, unknown factors that I didn't account for, etc. I am involved in
this only for an year or so, so I am not an expert by any means..

This is only for EB2-India. I would love to see someone do a similar analysis for
other categories. In the calculations, I am discounting final three months,
since it is a temporary advancement that won't hold over to next year.

Retrogression started in 2006 (No clue why.. anyone?)
In 2006, the dates where stable around 1/2003
In 2007, it stayed around 1/2003
In 2008, it moves erratically, but is stable around 1/2004
In 2009, it is stable around 2/2004

So when PD was set to 2003, it was satisfied by 2006 and 2007's quota.
when PD was set to 2004, let us hope that it will be satisfied by 2008 and 2009.

Now, this relation is one to two, assuming the number of 485s filed haven't changed
over the years, I arrive at this..

2010 - PD will be around 1/2005
2011 - PD will be around 1/2005
2012 - PD will be around 1/2006
2013 - PD will be around 1/2006
2014 - PD will be around 1/2007
2015 - PD will be around 1/2007
2016 - PD will be around 1/2008
2017 - PD will be around 1/2008

We can almost be certain that the number of 485s filed around 2005-2008 will
not be same as 2003-2004 period. Before 2008 bust, economy was booming, especially
in the IT sector. So in some cases, it may take more than two years to get over
one year's demand.

Anyone has more-number oriented analysis along the same route? I am sure lot of
people have spent hours over it. And if any one knows a post with better analysis,
can you please post the link?

This all assumes there is no change in current situation (No CIR, no quota change etc.)
Before you all jump on me for not contributing, participating etc.. let me say that
I believe that IV is doing a great job and activism is our only hope. I plan to contribute
and get involved soon.

To clear 2006 and 2007 it would take more than 4 years, Rest all fine i guess. The # of approved labor for 2006 and 2007 for india are 39581. Even if we consider 50% are EB2 then it is closer to 20K and per year for india EB2 as per 7% country quota it would be just 1500(2.2 per labor).

eyeswe
05-22-2009, 11:56 AM
Actually it was interesting, may be obvious to everyone but to me, to note the conclusions of OP's analysis. It takes 6 years or so to get GC on EB2-I. Now putting this in perspective,this is very similar (may be a year or so more) than what UK takes to give residency. Remember there is really no other country where the demand for GC is this high and so a comparison of US residency process with other countries is really faulty. Still I will do it. And the point that really falls out is that in US, until your sponsor files for residency the process does not start. In other countries it is an extension of your work visa and residency kicks in semi auto (if certain conditions are satisfied) after certain years of work permit...
Just a point for CIR?

kumar1
05-22-2009, 12:04 PM
Not only that, if you change your employer or your employer dumps you then you re-start this whole process from ground zero. Isn't it good?

This whole employment base green card is such a pain for Indian citizen....no wonder they have come up with a new gimmick called L1A --> GC. You get hired by a body shop like TCS in India, get transfered to the USA under L1A visa and get GC in 12 months. You do not even know what is priority date and you get green card!

This system is so bloody unfair!

dallasdude
05-22-2009, 12:08 PM
Hi ALl,

Got following info from one of my friend , this reliable information sent by Senator office.

TSC: NSC Total

EB1: 1030. 1723 2753
EB2: 22029 29688 51717
EB3: 34784 36054 70838

Got what from your friend? What the heck do these numbers mean?

gc_on_demand
05-22-2009, 12:09 PM
Not only that, if you change your employer or your employer dumps you then you re-start this whole process from ground zero. Isn't it good?

This whole employment base green card is such a pain for Indian citizen....no wonder they have come up with a new gimmick called L1A --> GC. You get hired by a body shop like TCS in India, get transfered to the USA under L1A visa and get GC in 12 months. You do not even know what is priority date and you get green card!

This system is so bloody unfair!

I am not on l1b or l1a but I dont think so Eb1 is being mis used so badly. If that was the case we should see 20- 30 k app under Eb1 each year. Its just some people are getting faster and you dont so its a jealous factor.

jsb
05-22-2009, 12:09 PM
Not only that, if you change your employer or your employer dumps you then you re-start this whole process from ground zero. Isn't it good?

This whole employment base green card is such a pain for Indian citizen....no wonder they have come up with a new gimmick called L1A --> GC. You get hired by a body shop like TCS in India, get transfered to the USA under L1A visa and get GC in 12 months. You do not even know what is priority date and you get green card! ...
!

How can L1A go to GC with no PD consideration? I believe, case will have an I-485 filing, etc.

Further, case re-starts only if you are still waiting to file I-485. In that case too, if Labor is approved, you are entitled to retain original PD. It is not best, but it is definitely better than what it sounds from your message.

mundada
05-22-2009, 12:34 PM
Assuming USCIS decides to waste 20% every year, so 110K EB visas are used out of 140K. 65K H1B are issued every year. Assuming 2.2 family factor then 145K EB visas are needed to avoid any retrogression.

This implies that for every four year, one year of retrogression is added on average.

Now the question is about 195,000 visas that were issued in 2001, 2002 and 2003. Most of these guys would apply between 2005 and 2009. PERM data shows that most of them applied from 2006 onwards but not much activity in 2005.

These three 195,000 H1Bs would require 1,287,000 EB visas implying (on average) adding total of 9 years to wait.

Implications:
1> It appears to me (if everything stays the same and there are no visa categories) that most of people whose priority dates are in or berfore 2005 should get visas soon in a year or so, but those in 2006 may get in two years but after that the retrogression should worsen a lot.
2> Those who have priority date in or after 2008 will have to wait a really long wait time before they get a chance to apply for EAD/AP, unless USCIS-DOS combo screws up again.
3> If we were to consider visa priorities (by country, by EB1, 2, 3) then it is like a weighing scale if you reduce wait times for one group you increase wait times for other groups to maintain the average. So if everything about horizontal spillover is true then most of EB2-I who applied by July 2007 should get in 2-3 years and after that God Bless America!

Now why 2.2 family factor (Twice for spouse + 10% for children). I assumed it is net of following. But changing it to 2 or 2.5 won't change much of reality.
Additions
1> Foreign born children
2> People from L1 TN1 and other visas categories
Minus
1> US born children
2> Some spouses on H1B; hence double counting
3> Not everyone on H1B applies for GC

software7
05-22-2009, 01:41 PM
Got what from your friend? What the heck do these numbers mean?

Title of my quote clearly says that these are I485 pending applications for Indians. I hope you understand.

ndbhatt
05-22-2009, 03:01 PM
Assuming USCIS decides to waste 20% every year, so 110K EB visas are used out of 140K. 65K H1B are issued every year. Assuming 2.2 family factor then 145K EB visas are needed to avoid any retrogression.

This implies that for every four year, one year of retrogression is added on average.

Now the question is about 195,000 visas that were issued in 2001, 2002 and 2003. Most of these guys would apply between 2005 and 2009. PERM data shows that most of them applied from 2006 onwards but not much activity in 2005.

These three 195,000 H1Bs would require 1,287,000 EB visas implying (on average) adding total of 9 years to wait.

Implications:
1> It appears to me (if everything stays the same and there are no visa categories) that most of people whose priority dates are in or berfore 2005 should get visas soon in a year or so, but those in 2006 may get in two years but after that the retrogression should worsen a lot.
2> Those who have priority date in or after 2008 will have to wait a really long wait time before they get a chance to apply for EAD/AP, unless USCIS-DOS combo screws up again.
3> If we were to consider visa priorities (by country, by EB1, 2, 3) then it is like a weighing scale if you reduce wait times for one group you increase wait times for other groups to maintain the average. So if everything about horizontal spillover is true then most of EB2-I who applied by July 2007 should get in 2-3 years and after that God Bless America!

Now why 2.2 family factor (Twice for spouse + 10% for children). I assumed it is net of following. But changing it to 2 or 2.5 won't change much of reality.
Additions
1> Foreign born children
2> People from L1 TN1 and other visas categories
Minus
1> US born children
2> Some spouses on H1B; hence double counting
3> Not everyone on H1B applies for GC

Add to Minus
Several folks like me who have changed employers and PERM process was re-initiated. So essentially, I have had PERM LC and I-140 from my previous employer and now my current employer initiated GC process again. Not sure about what percentage people fall under this scenario that but still it is prevalent.

Bhattji

sbmallik
05-22-2009, 03:23 PM
This is one bright side. Other dark side is that this bill allowed hundreds of thousand illegals to adjust status with just $1000 fine. Dead line of filing labor/petition is April 2001. Hundreds of thousand illegal (mostly EB3) have clogged system at DOL. Many hard working, legal immigrants are jammed at BEC for years and thousands of illegal got their labor cleared!! Even though, EB3 and EB2 was current up to 2005, these poor legal guys unable to apply for I 485 as labor was struck at BEC. On other side, many illegals got their green card during 2001 to 2005 (per one estimate, more than 50% recaptured visa under AC21 went to illegal immigrants). No body noticed that but current mesh is due to Democrat's love towards illegal (They enacted 245(i)). Why still EB3-I is hanging around 2001 in last 4 years?
Every one need to meet their Congress man/woman and educate for this otherwise in next CIR again, next generation of low abiding legal immigrants would be sufferer.

Correct 245I screwd us up. EB3-I is still locked at 2001!!

hiralal
05-22-2009, 10:52 PM
the easiest thing that we can do is have several campaigns.
- Rally ..
- meet congressmen
- letter campaign
- something as easy as sitting in your home, getting the phone numbers of local realtors ..show interest in buying a house ..and then after few days back out ..saying that GC delays are preventing you from signing a contract ..if sufficient number of people take part,..then we will have realtors screaming for LEGAL immigration reform
analysis and even more analysis is good but taking some action is BETTER !!

permfiling
05-22-2009, 11:10 PM
Add to Minus
Several folks like me who have changed employers and PERM process was re-initiated. So essentially, I have had PERM LC and I-140 from my previous employer and now my current employer initiated GC process again. Not sure about what percentage people fall under this scenario that but still it is prevalent.

Bhattji

I am in the same boat ndbhatt :-)

meridiani.planum
05-23-2009, 07:19 AM
Retrogression started around september 2005. In 2000 year when Clinton was stepping down a bill was passed which was called american competitiveness act 2001 which gave quarter million EB numbers extra to the regular pool. This was exahausted in 2005 september. So lot of people do not know about this and wonder why some colleagues from 2002, 2003 got GC which others are rusting their EAD's and AP's. I think IV should put a video in the front page explaining retrogression or EB applicants will blame their karma and not contribute a dime to IV.

India was and will be retrogressed

May 1999 visa bulletin
http://www.visalaw.com/99apr/7apr99.html

It was only during Clinton time that AC21 bill was passed and we got 250,000 visa numbers. Otherwise retrogression would have been a part and parcel of time since time immemorial. Pls give me greens before somebody drowns me in red.

good point. the other major reason for this big retrogression is the early years of this decade also had a much higher H1 cap, so the input into the queue also ran very high...

BharatPremi
05-23-2009, 01:08 PM
This is one bright side. Other dark side is that this bill allowed hundreds of thousand illegals to adjust status with just $1000 fine. Dead line of filing labor/petition is April 2001. Hundreds of thousand illegal (mostly EB3) have clogged system at DOL. Many hard working, legal immigrants are jammed at BEC for years and thousands of illegal got their labor cleared!! Even though, EB3 and EB2 was current up to 2005, these poor legal guys unable to apply for I 485 as labor was struck at BEC. On other side, many illegals got their green card during 2001 to 2005 (per one estimate, more than 50% recaptured visa under AC21 went to illegal immigrants). No body noticed that but current mesh is due to Democrat's love towards illegal (They enacted 245(i)). Why still EB3-I is hanging around 2001 in last 4 years?
Every one need to meet their Congress man/woman and educate for this otherwise in next CIR again, next generation of low abiding legal immigrants would be sufferer.

I 100000000% agree with you.

BharatPremi
05-23-2009, 02:15 PM
Considering Eight factors:
------------------------------

- Continuous employment with the employer who filed Green card
- From now on H1 Visa limit remains 65000 (per year) for ever
- 70-80% people coming on H1 will be from China and India (As happening since year
2000)
- Many Green card applicants keep on hunting for loopholes and keep on filing multiple
files like what is happening since 2001
- EB3 to EB2 switch ratio and/or multiple filing among these 2 categories simultaneously
remains same as from year 2001 to 2009
- USCIS/US Government never changes current Employment based Green card laws
including country limit
- Average 10-20% applicants go back to India for good
- US and India Economy will remain same as during the yeras from 2001-2009

EB2-India will always take 7-8 years end to end
EB3-India will take 8-11 years from end to end

Any break in employment will add more years into this.

BharatPremi
05-23-2009, 02:36 PM
I dont think so Eb1 is being mis used so badly.

Somewhat correct but there are thugs who find the way.Little more "smartness" is expected to misuse EB1 and that is why we do not see stempede for EB1. One need 100% "supportive" lawyer, employer and "news paper" to publish "research article".

hiralal
05-23-2009, 11:19 PM
Considering Eight factors:
------------------------------

.
good points ,... the only unknown is will a recapture pass. all the economists agree that one important point for stable recovery is to get lost demand (in everything) from somewhere and the only answer seems to be faster immigration.
that is why I say ..have some sort of campaign atleast ..call your local realtors, show interest in buying a house and then back off saying that you were waiting to get GC since ;ast 6 years ..but it has been delayed and hence you are backing out.
at the very least, this will highlight the contribution of legal immigrants.

jthomas
05-25-2009, 03:07 AM
EB3-I can port to EB2-I . In this case EB2-I would take the same amount of time EB3 needs. So why do you want to have a crude estimate on EB2-I.

If you want EB-I to progress, do something, send letters asking them to remove the country quota. Do whatever you can except projecting when something would happen.

kumar1
05-26-2009, 07:25 PM
Wrong information! L1A go to EB-1 and EB-1 is current for all the countries. Hence, practically no wait time. Keep in mind, we are talking about US immigration where 1 year or 2 year is next to nothing.

How can L1A go to GC with no PD consideration? I believe, case will have an I-485 filing, etc.

Further, case re-starts only if you are still waiting to file I-485.


Wrong, In this case case should not be re-started. If your labor and I-140 is cleared then all you can retain is your PD. That's it. You got to re-start the process again. Labor->I-140->I-485

In that case too, if Labor is approved, you are entitled to retain original PD.

Wrong! You need to have I-140 approved in order to have this luxury.

It is not best, but it is definitely better than what it sounds from your message

dallasdude
05-27-2009, 12:31 PM
Wrong information! L1A go to EB-1 and EB-1 is current for all the countries. Hence, practically no wait time. Keep in mind, we are talking about US immigration where 1 year or 2 year is next to nothing.




Let them all unethical folks rot in hell!