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vselvam
12-16-2006, 06:20 PM
I would like to know some details about EB3.

Currently the priority date for EB3 India is May’01.

My PD is Mar’2004.

When no reforms happen, how long approximately it will take to reach my PD.

I know it is based on how many people applied, yearly and per country limit. Can any one guess or possibly know how we can find about these details about movement such that how many people applied, if it goes on the same speed then how long it will take to move from one year to next year. Can anyone guess?

Thanks

logiclife
12-16-2006, 06:43 PM
No one can predict anything.

It depends on how many applicants are actually going to apply or intend to apply for 485 between the PD now and your PD.

That depends on how many labor certs are pending in backlog centers. Then again, no one knows how many of those labor certs are duplicates with same person applying for GC from 2 or 3 different companies. Then, no one knows how many of those who are going to get their labor approved have left USA in the economic recession of 2000 thru 2002. And no one knows how many of those pending labors belong to people from India versus people from China or Phillipines or rest of world for that matter.

So if you get answers for PD prediction, taking it with a grain of salt. There are too many unknown variables in that equation and even the people who set the visa bulletins in the Department of State have no idea where this would go.

Jimi_Hendrix
12-16-2006, 06:46 PM
To make any educated guess there has to be a basis. You need to have some data or some other relevant information. Unfortunately there is no data available that can help one make an educated guess about the future movement of EB3 India.

In the absence of any data being available you cannot make a guess about the movement of visa numbers. However we do have visa bulletins each month and if you notice the movement in Priority dates in the last 6-9 month period, that movement has been very minimal. Also the advisory given by the Department of State has been very negative about the future movement of priority dates. Therefore it is quite safe to conclude that unless legislative action is taken, you can reasonably expect priority dates to move very slowly or even stop moving.

GCAmigo
12-16-2006, 07:14 PM
it took 10 months to move one month..

485Mbe4001
12-16-2006, 07:52 PM
:) there are too many variables to this equation. even ajmeri will hang up on you if you ask him when somebodys EB3 will be current.

all joking aside, it will be a nightmare for EB3 as well as EB2 unless there is some kind of reform. EB3 with a PD of 2004+ for india, china, mexico and some more other countires could easily take 10 years. I am an optimist and i still I think we will the dreaded 'U' pretty soon. There is a urgent need to educate people about this and get something passed, EB is totally broken.

perm2gc
12-16-2006, 08:41 PM
I would like to know some details about EB3.

Currently the priority date for EB3 India is May’01.

My PD is Mar’2004.

When no reforms happen, how long approximately it will take to reach my PD.

I know it is based on how many people applied, yearly and per country limit. Can any one guess or possibly know how we can find about these details about movement such that how many people applied, if it goes on the same speed then how long it will take to move from one year to next year. Can anyone guess?

Thanks
10Yrs is my guess.:D

nagrajram
12-17-2006, 12:23 PM
Now the biggest hurdle of Apr 30, 2001 is crossed. I am sure that not many people has filed between Sep 2001 and February 2002. Also if you look into PD for China and Phillipines, the dates moved very fast after June 2001. Lot of people applied in late 2002 and early 2003. My guess would be that it will take about 3 to 4 years to clear all the backlogs of 2003. For 2004 it may be over 5 years.

Gravitation
12-17-2006, 12:38 PM
2 years - 10 years.

Not very precise... but that's as much as anybody knows.

alisa
12-17-2006, 01:10 PM
My Labor was rotting in BEC, and so I moved to another role, and will now have a PD of 2007 as a new labor will be filed, Rest of the world, EB-3......

Got any predictions?????

Mine are 1 year (if legislation goes through), to 12 years (if it does not.)

485Mbe4001
12-17-2006, 07:20 PM
Look at the EB3 dates for Mexico for the last 4-6 months, they were all beyond april 2001 and still stuck for 4 months with little movement. Most people think that April 2001 sounds like a beacon of hope or a major hurdle after which things will be normal and we will start getting the GCs, i dont know how you can say EB3 moved fast, and for desis its a long long wait.


Now the biggest hurdle of Apr 30, 2001 is crossed. I am sure that not many people has filed between Sep 2001 and February 2002. Also if you look into PD for China and Phillipines, the dates moved very fast after June 2001. Lot of people applied in late 2002 and early 2003. My guess would be that it will take about 3 to 4 years to clear all the backlogs of 2003. For 2004 it may be over 5 years.

Gravitation
12-17-2006, 08:39 PM
My Labor was rotting in BEC, and so I moved to another role, and will now have a PD of 2007 as a new labor will be filed, Rest of the world, EB-3......

Got any predictions?????

Mine are 1 year (if legislation goes through), to 12 years (if it does not.)

I won't be that pessimistic about RoW. I'd say 1-3 years even if nothing passes.

sbabunle
12-17-2006, 10:45 PM
Don't be too happy since it moved May 2001 for India. DOS is moving the dates solely based on the demand from the USCIS. They dont know what is DOL cooking ( or they dont care). The BECs have roughly done half of their work. Thats about 180K. Another 180K ( roughly) are pending. So once
they all cleared we may get a better picture of the Plight of EB3 & EB2.

My guess is that anybody who has a PD (India)

Jan 2003-Dec2003 9 years
Jan04-Dec04 12 years
Jan 05 > 15 years
as per present law.


This also underlines the importance of an effective lobbying. We have to make this baby organization to a much stronger one. With lots of dollars and lots and lots of people. In my opinion we should have at least 75K active contributing members.

One good thing is that people who came to US recently ( after 2004) and who apply PERM get things done in 8 months until I140. At I140 they realize they cannot move forward. They are slowly understanding the agonizing situation we are all in. I hope this will eventually turn in more people to immigration voice.
Good luck to all
babu

pappu
12-18-2006, 10:07 AM
Don't be too happy since it moved May 2001 for India. DOS is moving the dates solely based on the demand from the USCIS. They dont know what is DOL cooking ( or they dont care). The BECs have roughly done half of their work. Thats about 180K. Another 180K ( roughly) are pending. So once
they all cleared we may get a better picture of the Plight of EB3 & EB2.

My guess is that anybody who has a PD (India)

Jan 2003-Dec2003 9 years
Jan04-Dec04 12 years
Jan 05 > 15 years
as per present law.


This also underlines the importance of an effective lobbying. We have to make this baby organization to a much stronger one. With lots of dollars and lots and lots of people. In my opinion we should have at least 75K active contributing members.

One good thing is that people who came to US recently ( after 2004) and who apply PERM get things done in 8 months until I140. At I140 they realize they cannot move forward. They are slowly understanding the agonizing situation we are all in. I hope this will eventually turn in more people to immigration voice.
Good luck to all
babu

well said.
We have better chance of success if we are a stronger organization. Efforts by members need to happen everyday and not only on the day when senate/congress is in session and discussing a bill. We can achieve success if every member is actively involved in the action items.

va_il
12-18-2006, 04:25 PM
With a EB3 PD of July 2002 from IN what can i expect after this May 1st hurdle being crossed.

Any insight would be appreciated.

va_il
12-27-2006, 02:49 PM
With a EB3 PD of July 2002 from IN what can i expect after this May 1st hurdle being crossed.

Any insight would be appreciated.
Clueless i guess.