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View Full Version : Latest Pending Inventory of I-485 Released - As of Jan 2012


sandy_anand
02-03-2012, 09:49 AM
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_Jan2012.pdf

ajaybhardwaj228
02-03-2012, 10:10 AM
From reading the inventory I think this is what I concluded .
As of Jan 12 they have around 73000 visa numbers available for spillover into EB2 IC. Am I calculating correctly ? based upon these numbers spillover should go into EB3 soon after making EB2 IC current as EB2 IC inventory is just close to 16000. I am missing something big in this calculations right ?

Category Total Invetory Spillover
EB1 40400 15400 25000
EB2 40400 12016 28384
EB4 9940 23 9917
EB5 9940 365 9575
72876

h1techSlave
02-03-2012, 10:22 AM
A straight forward reading of the data says there are 142000 pending applications. Per year quota is around the same number. Within 1 year USCIS can issue green cards to all those people who have already applied.

I don't know what is so complex here?

ngpt8ht
02-03-2012, 10:42 AM
There is a challenge though. It does not mean all the people with pending application will get their GC approved in the current year as the inventory is less than the overall capacity.

Now you are ignoring the fact that there will be new applications and they will get priority over EB3 India. Just continue to demonstrate that the system is not fair and we need HR 3012.

h1techSlave
02-03-2012, 11:11 AM
There is a challenge though. It does not mean all the people with pending application will get their GC approved in the current year as the inventory is less than the overall capacity.

Now you are ignoring the fact that there will be new applications and they will get priority over EB3 India. Just continue to demonstrate that the system is not fair and we need HR 3012.

Sure there will be new applications. But it is entirely up to USCIS, whether to actually process those new applications or not.

My point is that, it is possible for USCIS to issue green cards to almost 100% of all applicants already in the system. This is because the quota and the number of people already in the system are almost the same.

sandy_anand
02-03-2012, 11:23 AM
Sure there will be new applications. But it is entirely up to USCIS, whether to actually process those new applications or not.

My point is that, it is possible for USCIS to issue green cards to almost 100% of all applicants already in the system. This is because the quota and the number of people already in the system are almost the same.

Although traditionally the inventory represents 85% of applicants who opt for AOS versus CP, for EB3 category the percentage of people who are outside of the US waiting for their number to become current and hence have CP as their only choice is very high. So the 142000 number only represents the AOS demand and the total universe of demand is much higher especially in the EB3 category.

To further illustrate this point, if you look at EB3-ROW, it is 29,388. A year ago, it was 47,627. AOS has consumed 18,239 for EB3 ROW in a year. With individual countries (I/C/M/P) consuming around 2600 visas each, the rest of the demand came from CP.

coldcloud
02-03-2012, 11:23 AM
Does any one know Is this inventory based on actual PD or RD?

windycloud
02-03-2012, 11:24 AM
Did you consider all the EB3-Is who are on this list but far from being current? How are they going to get GCs this year, or next, or the many more to come? Think for a few more minutes before posting.

Amman
02-03-2012, 11:24 AM
Sure there will be new applications. But it is entirely up to USCIS, whether to actually process those new applications or not.

My point is that, it is possible for USCIS to issue green cards to almost 100% of all applicants already in the system. This is because the quota and the number of people already in the system are almost the same.
i think that's where per country quota (7%) kicks in....though there may be enough visas, country like India, China can't go over 7%

sandy_anand
02-03-2012, 11:28 AM
Does any one know Is this inventory based on actual PD or RD?

PD. RD has no role in this.

skpanda
02-03-2012, 11:57 AM
My personal opinion: If CO moves PD in March 2012 based on the inventory, he should move it by 1 year atleast.

Reason: a. EB2 as a whole has 30.5K applications.
b. The year 2008 from EB2IC added only 5K applications.
c. Granted that Inventory does not have 2009 data.
d. But looking at 2008 if we assume 2009 will also add 5K applications.
e. Total EB2 will be little less than 36K.
f. Total EB2 that will be documentarily qualified will be 31K (little less than 15% I485 rejection rate). So total EB2 Demand as of Feb 2012 VB 32K.
g. EB2 as whole usually gets 40K quota + 10K from EB1+EB5+EB4. Even if we assume 5K from EB1+EB5+EB5. Number of applications needed for FY 2012 for EB2 is 45K.
h. So USCIS still needs 14K documentarily qualified applications for FY2012 for EB2 as a whole. That turns out to be about 16.5K I485s.
i. Therefore to get 16.5K I485 applications, CO has to move the dates by atleast 1 year (infact they have to make it current if we go by the 2008 I485 count of 5K)

NOTE: I know that there are many people with PD in 2008 that have not applied and hence we see low numbers but Mr. CO does not have a way to see that.


Feel free to tear my logic apart.