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nmdial
02-11-2013, 03:51 PM
The visa bulletin is out and it doesn't look good!
Visa Bulletin For March 2013 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5885.html)

Here's an excerpt from the bulletin:

India: No movement. Despite the established cut-off date having been held for the past five months in an effort to keep demand within the average monthly usage targets, the amount of demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Offices for adjustment of status cases remains extremely high. Should the current rate of demand continue, it is likely that at some point the cut-off date will need to be retrogressed in an effort to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit.

StillonH1B
02-11-2013, 03:58 PM
I don't understand this, how can the demand being high for adjustment of status when the cut off date is Sep 04 and according to the demand data there are only 300 candidates before the priority date of Jan 1 2005?

Am I missing something?

unlucky_GC
02-11-2013, 04:12 PM
Just for 2004, Past 5 month Demand data for India remains to be between 275 to 300 every month. It doesn't mean every month 300 applications are being ported from eb3 to eb2. Looks like things are on-hold and not getting processed for eb2.

unlucky_GC
02-11-2013, 04:26 PM
I don't understand this, how can the demand being high for adjustment of status when the cut off date is Sep 04 and according to the demand data there are only 300 candidates before the priority date of Jan 1 2005?

Am I missing something?

Month after month, we eagerly look for some to happen. but getting used to this regular rude answer from the lord of justice. take a photocopy of this month visa bulletin its going to be same frozen thing for next month also. or another one more possibility it can go back in time...:mad:

pd052009
02-11-2013, 05:09 PM
As HR 3012 did not come true, I think we dont have any immediate relief in sight.. Wait.. Wait.. Till we become past :(

gk_2000
02-11-2013, 05:40 PM
The visa bulletin is out and it doesn't look good!
Visa Bulletin For March 2013 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5885.html)

Here's an excerpt from the bulletin:

India: No movement. Despite the established cut-off date having been held for the past five months in an effort to keep demand within the average monthly usage targets, the amount of demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Offices for adjustment of status cases remains extremely high. Should the current rate of demand continue, it is likely that at some point the cut-off date will need to be retrogressed in an effort to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit.

WTF!!!!!?????? It was all well last year now what happ suddenly??? :(

mzc123
02-11-2013, 05:59 PM
WTF!!!!!?????? It was all well last year now what happ suddenly??? :(

extremely high demand for EB2-I, that's what have happened!!!. .... LOL :D :D

Welcome to the world of politics..... I bet they will keep the backlog so they have a reason to work/argue/compromise on the CIR. Timing is perfect - CIR works expected all this summer... visa cut-off on hold until 3Q.... good going USCIS!!

pappu
02-11-2013, 06:02 PM
No surprises for those closely following efforts last year and reading donor updates on our meetings. More people were able to file I485 and get EAD/AP benefits. This was a big help which was otherwise not possible if dates moved slowly. The super-fast forward movement helped build pipeline for a better estimation of movement in future. It will be unreasonable to expect such super-fast forward movement like last year again. Those who are in the game of predicting business or those who are looking at past track record and speculating, are wasting time in my opinion and should be focusing on root cause of the problem. Focus on getting bill passed. That is the only solution. Look beyond your own application and see it as a community issue to be resolved.

forever_waiting
02-11-2013, 06:18 PM
Were we expecting any movement? There is nothing new. People with EB2 mid-2008 PDs and beyond (and EB3) should stop tracking visa bulletins. There is enough inventory now for next 2+ years.
Working with IV to get our provisions into CIR this year is the only hope.

Flyingcrow
02-11-2013, 06:24 PM
I Please...

Flyingcrow
02-11-2013, 06:26 PM
Squ-are without the hyphen was filtered! :confused:

Rb_newsletter
02-11-2013, 06:27 PM
No surprises for those closely following efforts last year and reading donor updates on our meetings. More people were able to file I485 and get EAD/AP benefits. This was a big help which was otherwise not possible if dates moved slowly. The super-fast forward movement helped build pipeline for a better estimation of movement in future. It will be unreasonable to expect such super-fast forward movement like last year again. Those who are in the game of predicting business or those who are looking at past track record and speculating, are wasting time in my opinion and should be focusing on root cause of the problem. Focus on getting bill passed. That is the only solution. Look beyond your own application and see it as a community issue to be resolved.

If we had scheduled the rally now, we would have got 10K plus attendees. Last year people thought HR3012 would get passed automatically.


Should the current rate of demand continue, it is likely that at some point the cut-off date will need to be retrogressed in an effort to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit.


What does "cut-off date will need to be retrogressed" mean? Are the dates not retrogressed already? Or should we read it as "cut-off date will need to be retrogressed further".

saurav_4096
02-11-2013, 06:44 PM
The super-fast forward movement helped build pipeline for a better estimation of movement in future.

I am not sure who this pipeline is for? still DOS/USCIS do not have any clue which direction the PD will be moving.

- As they publish monthly demand data why they are not transparent about monthly issuance of GC?
- Demand Data numbers also do not seem very accurate... I believe they are just extrapolated, How come their total always increases by the multiple of 25.

IV is doing its best to solve the problem but if DOS/USCIS are more transparent it will be good for people living on their mercy.

deepakd
02-11-2013, 08:22 PM
There won't be any movement before the last quarter of this FY for sure.

mzc123
02-11-2013, 08:31 PM
There won't be any movement before the last quarter of this FY for sure.

yes, you are saying the obvious...... it has been known since the dates were retrogressed after rapid movement last year. And now, it is officially stated by USCIS. No surprise there.... the question is how much movement will be seen in the last quarter, if any?

deepakd
02-11-2013, 08:35 PM
It would be dependent on the fact, how many visas have been used, spill-over available and other factors.
The way they held back the dates so far, I'd assume EB2-I would have lots of visa to dispense with.

gk_2000
02-11-2013, 08:56 PM
No surprises for those closely following efforts last year and reading donor updates on our meetings. More people were able to file I485 and get EAD/AP benefits. This was a big help which was otherwise not possible if dates moved slowly. The super-fast forward movement helped build pipeline for a better estimation of movement in future. It will be unreasonable to expect such super-fast forward movement like last year again. Those who are in the game of predicting business or those who are looking at past track record and speculating, are wasting time in my opinion and should be focusing on root cause of the problem. Focus on getting bill passed. That is the only solution. Look beyond your own application and see it as a community issue to be resolved.

If as you say they were "building pipeline" then how come even they appear to be surprised by the numbers? See what the other member had posted --

Here's an excerpt from the bulletin:

India: No movement. Despite the established cut-off date having been held for the past five months in an effort to keep demand within the average monthly usage targets, the amount of demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Offices for adjustment of status cases remains extremely high. Should the current rate of demand continue, it is likely that at some point the cut-off date will need to be retrogressed in an effort to hold demand within the FY-2013 annual limit.

paskal
02-12-2013, 04:31 AM
"No surprises for those closely following efforts last year and reading donor updates on our meetings"

You seem to have problems following the sequence of the thread. No surprises for those following...that the date has retrogressed. Not that the date moved forward! Actually Pappu has repeatedly maintained that the forward movement was not sustainable and the dates would return to earth once USCIS finished collecting data. And its hardly rocket science, anyone following this issues should have known that. What exactly is your problem with that?

And yes, IV did actually have meetings with USCIS prior to the forward movement. We even submitted the data that THEY asked us for, in support of moving dates. We have nothing of course whatsoever to do directly with actual dates or their movement (DOS- Charlie does that), but we do provide USCIS with our demand calculations and recommendations for their use. I know because I was personally involved with some of this, so no surprises, no guessing involved. The key number crunchers btw are vbkris77 and ashwin_27 and we all owe them for amount of work they put in. We all knew that the forward movement was unreal and not sustainable and the predictions were meaningless. As much was said repeatedly at every IV event. If nothing else, look at it this way, the Director of Immigration Policy for DHS, who oversees USCIS flew all the way to San Jose to participate in our summit last year...surely we have some credibility with them? But enough pandering to you, I have a life too dude...!

Anyway, this silly squabbling and finger pointing is not helpful in the least. If you have had your satisfaction now, it's time to stand up and fight. CIR or something like it is coming. I know you have your GC, so do I. But we need to get this done for everyone's sake.

thomachan72
02-12-2013, 09:07 AM
No surprises for those closely following efforts last year and reading donor updates on our meetings. More people were able to file I485 and get EAD/AP benefits. This was a big help which was otherwise not possible if dates moved slowly. The super-fast forward movement helped build pipeline for a better estimation of movement in future. It will be unreasonable to expect such super-fast forward movement like last year again. Those who are in the game of predicting business or those who are looking at past track record and speculating, are wasting time in my opinion and should be focusing on root cause of the problem. Focus on getting bill passed. That is the only solution. Look beyond your own application and see it as a community issue to be resolved.
Yes ofcourse we will join the fight for change. Meanwhile I wish that we could get some clarification from them as to how they come up with these numbers? If the demand data does not show huge demand prior to 05 then what is consuming the numbers? Lack of transparency, secrecy and confusion are their main weapon. Why do they even publish a demand data which even they cannot understand clearly. Yes we are fighting for change but the most important change should be clarity with the process at CIS. Thinking positively maybe this gives us more amo for our fight?? Looks like even china is cruising ahead to mid 2008!!

sanprabhu
02-12-2013, 09:51 AM
It would be dependent on the fact, how many visas have been used, spill-over available and other factors.
The way they held back the dates so far, I'd assume EB2-I would have lots of visa to dispense with.

I do not see anywhere the USDOS gives the visa consumption figures. We are assuming EB1-I is consuming lot of these visa so they want to keep the things as it is for not to bump the per country limits but can they publish the visa usage? Does anybody here got that data?

Personally I do not believe the CIR will be a done deal. I still think we should keep on pressing HR 3012 or its equivalent with the Congress.

chtummala
02-12-2013, 11:02 AM
I do not see anywhere the USDOS gives the visa consumption figures. We are assuming EB1-I is consuming lot of these visa so they want to keep the things as it is for not to bump the per country limits but can they publish the visa usage? Does anybody here got that data?

Personally I do not believe the CIR will be a done deal. I still think we should keep on pressing HR 3012 or its equivalent with the Congress.

they are only providing it at year end ..
they should do it more often

unlucky_GC
02-12-2013, 11:49 AM
Just taking the situation with EB2 for India.

If the demand data does not show huge demand prior to 05 then what is consuming the numbers? What is monthly visa usage target? Is that target being exhausted every month? Does new 275 to 300 visa demand popup every month? Is the 50% of annual quota exhausted so far with the current cutoff date in this past 6 months? (no one can answer to this questions clearly and accurately)

Rightly said,

1, they use lack of transparency and confusion are their main weapon.

2, For administrative easiness, they put full blame on volume porting and put things on-hold and inaction for 3 quarters.

3, They take things for processing in last quarter with big mad rush in the movement and random approvals. Ultimately, some of the annual quota go unused with all this confusions.

More than anything, Itís a open administrative injustice.

What has to be the community action plan for this..

1, Should we complain to the ombudsman?

2, Raise this from the community level to the DHS / DOS / USCIS leadership ?

3, File a suite/ complaint asking for full transparency in visa consumption and process.?

4, Do nothing. Just sit and watch this saga happening again and again? And focusing our full efforts only with new legislative repairs. (CIR & HR 3012).

CKR
02-12-2013, 12:45 PM
Just taking the situation with EB2 for India.

If the demand data does not show huge demand prior to 05 then what is consuming the numbers? What is monthly visa usage target? Is that target being exhausted every month? Does new 275 to 300 visa demand popup every month? Is the 50% of annual quota exhausted so far with the current cutoff date in this past 6 months? (no one can answer to this questions clearly and accurately)

Rightly said,

1, they use lack of transparency and confusion are their main weapon.

2, For administrative easiness, they put full blame on volume porting and put things on-hold and inaction for 3 quarters.

3, They take things for processing in last quarter with big mad rush in the movement and random approvals. Ultimately, some of the annual quota go unused with all this confusions.

More than anything, Itís a open administrative injustice.

What has to be the community action plan for this..

1, Should we complain to the ombudsman?

2, Raise this from the community level to the DHS / DOS / USCIS leadership ?

3, File a suite/ complaint asking for full transparency in visa consumption and process.?

4, Do nothing. Just sit and watch this saga happening again and again? And focusing our full efforts only with new legislative repairs. (CIR & HR 3012).

As a person who worked with some govt Agencies (not related to immigration) before....Here is some insight into how things go inside a govt office.
I believe most of you already know this but again .....

1. Anything that is supposed to be released publicly is checked a 100 times including grammar, fonts, colors etc ......repeatedly from the chaiwallah to the officer in charge. Because once the thing is out the department is liable for it. So things would not "pop out" quickly.

2. The flow of data is dependent on inter agency data transfer, which in turn are dependent on inter agency requests and which take time , paper based requests and administrative meetings. The latest or new data does not come that easily into the database and is controlled/withheld by certain teams / divisions in the organization. Data can only be requested "N" number of times per year.

3. This is controversial ...and take it with a pinch of salt.......but I have seen it, if some non critical / approximation mistake or flaw has been discovered in the data once it is public, usually it is not changed and all "new" data is "modified" to match that old release.

4. The atmosphere is Extremely resistant to change- and things are very very very slow compared to Private organizations. Most of the times deadlines are ignored as there is practically no incentive to meet them.

Again ....Not complaining but just letting people know that this is how things work in the real world.

-CKR

thomachan72
02-12-2013, 02:02 PM
As a person who worked with some govt Agencies (not related to immigration) before....Here is some insight into how things go inside a govt office.
I believe most of you already know this but again .....

1. Anything that is supposed to be released publicly is checked a 100 times including grammar, fonts, colors etc ......repeatedly from the chaiwallah to the officer in charge. Because once the thing is out the department is liable for it. So things would not "pop out" quickly.

2. The flow of data is dependent on inter agency data transfer, which in turn are dependent on inter agency requests and which take time , paper based requests and administrative meetings. The latest or new data does not come that easily into the database and is controlled/withheld by certain teams / divisions in the organization. Data can only be requested "N" number of times per year.

3. This is controversial ...and take it with a pinch of salt.......but I have seen it, if some non critical / approximation mistake or flaw has been discovered in the data once it is public, usually it is not changed and all "new" data is "modified" to match that old release.

4. The atmosphere is Extremely resistant to change- and things are very very very slow compared to Private organizations. Most of the times deadlines are ignored as there is practically no incentive to meet them.

Again ....Not complaining but just letting people know that this is how things work in the real world.

-CKR
understand what you are saying but clearly most of the issues that we have here are not related to the lack of visa numbers or anything. It is simply the failure of the CIS to properly handle the process. The demand data that they release is simply BS. It might be checked for acuracy as you say here but ofcourse it means nothing. Right now it says there is a demand for 300 prior to 05 and the prediction is that the dates can retrogress due to heavy demand. Next month also there will be 300 so does that mean the atleast 200 were issued for PD prior to 04? and new 300 came in?
Anyways if they cannot handle this load how will they even begin to plan for the 11 million that will join the system:(
Does anybody know how much spillover happens from EB2 ROW on an average?

Chandini
02-12-2013, 02:19 PM
Well this country is a third world country and cannot handle the load like the government offices in 3rd world countries.




understand what you are saying but clearly most of the issues that we have here are not related to the lack of visa numbers or anything. It is simply the failure of the CIS to properly handle the process. The demand data that they release is simply BS. It might be checked for acuracy as you say here but ofcourse it means nothing. Right now it says there is a demand for 300 prior to 05 and the prediction is that the dates can retrogress due to heavy demand. Next month also there will be 300 so does that mean the atleast 200 were issued for PD prior to 04? and new 300 came in?
Anyways if they cannot handle this load how will they even begin to plan for the 11 million that will join the system:(
Does anybody know how much spillover happens from EB2 ROW on an average?

hello
02-12-2013, 03:35 PM
Its all BS.Nobody knows whats going on.No system in place,no transparency.Now as CIR talks in town,everybody will claim its happening because of their efforts.Its all hypocrisy.Don't know if anything can be fixed!

CKR
02-12-2013, 03:54 PM
Its all BS.Nobody knows whats going on.No system in place,no transparency.Now as CIR talks in town,everybody will claim its happening because of their efforts.Its all hypocrisy.Don't know if anything can be fixed!

Disagree...Every Govt Agency comes under some audit agency and there are measures to check their work. Usually they are at their best when they are under an obligation to meet a deadline by law or when facing a penalty if missing a deadline.

EB visa processing on the other hand I suppose is under no such deadline or "Law" that requires adhering to strict timelines.

spicy_guy
02-12-2013, 04:06 PM
Funny though :-). Now EB3 I is kind of mum because there is nothing for them to "hope", while EB2 is venting the frustration because of shattering "hopes" bulletin by bulletin, especially those that are close to cut off dates.

Not to offend anyone. But just thats how it was for EB3I when EB2I was jumping by leaps and bounds. Now EB2 is stuck in the mud too, but still better than EB3I.

Again, this is not about EB3 vs EB2. Just the feeling is same across.:rolleyes:

pd052011
02-12-2013, 04:10 PM
That is not entirely true. The Inspector General's offices typically check all agency operations but if there are no reported claims of mishandling of operations, they will not investigate. These may be routine calculations. I dont know if FOIA is applicable here.

thomachan72
02-12-2013, 04:35 PM
Funny though :-). Now EB3 I is kind of mum because there is nothing for them to "hope", while EB2 is venting the frustration because of shattering "hopes" bulletin by bulletin, especially those that are close to cut off dates.

Not to offend anyone. But just thats how it was for EB3I when EB2I was jumping by leaps and bounds. Now EB2 is stuck in the mud too, but still better than EB3I.

Again, this is not about EB3 vs EB2. Just the feeling is same across.:rolleyes:

Whatever your intention buddy it is kind of a foolish argument. Intentionally or unintentionally we should refrain from such comparisons. We should certainly hope that EB2 category is slightly advantaged compared to EB3 shouldn't we? Many qualified folks have had to file in the EB3 unfortunately but that does not mean that EB2 should lag behind, does it?? Dont feel that when EB3 lags behind folks who applied in EB2 are rejoicing. If that is the case should EB2 eagerly anticipate EB1 to be backlogged? so that they can understand our pain?

pappu
02-12-2013, 07:20 PM
Well this country is a third world country and cannot handle the load like the government offices in 3rd world countries.

More than one million people get greencards every year.

Hundreds of thousands get citizenship every year.

Millions get new non immigrant visas every year.

Millions apply to renew, extend, appeal. RFE, etc every year.

Millions write, call every year opening service requests or ask questions.

Millions of phone calls each year multiple times, some every day as soon as they get current :)

Which country in the world handles such enormous workload? If anyone thinks there is any other country that is better in immigration who is stopping us from applying there. We need to change the mentality and be constructive. In India I have seen every second person in bus or train talks about politics and politicians as if they are the expert and their talk is not constructive. A very tiny fraction of them will go out and rally for change or support people like Anna or Arvind who are actually trying to change the system or join non profits to volunteer and bring about changes in their chosen social cause? . Many are scared to say anything and are lazy to do anything out of the way for the country and to improve the system. People will still go and vote for the corrupt and criminals or be part of that system for their greed. and these are the same who will eloquently talk about religion and righteousness if you discuss that topic. It is the same here with the effort. How many of us came to the rally in San Jose last year?

Visa bulletin is a small item in many things related to immigration and homeland security. EB2 India is too small a fish in the larger scheme of things. if you meet lawmakers or senior officials nobody even knows what spillover and what prediction or tracking is. It is all forum talk and time pass for many. Site owners are happy because such traffic gets them business and money from traffic.

There is always room for improvement and as stakeholders we should all be providing constructive suggestions. How many of us travel to DC during advocacy days. We did several of them last year and every time did meetings with the agency and administration. Those who volunteer their time, meet local lawmaker offices on regular basis and take time off, spend their money to come to DC get to go to these meetings with us and directly talk to officials. In these meetings we do not talk about what the next VB is or what the prediction is. But ideas to improve what we have now. And one meeting does not solve it. You have to come many times and follow up, build rapport as a stake holder organization. Follow up does not just mean writing an email, but actually going to meet these people again, get on long confrence calls during our work week during office hours. How many of us can commit to doing that over a long period of time until they see their idea through? Small teams of volunteers in IV have been doing that and we should be appreciative of them instead of being nasty in posts against IV. some of these volunteers have been greened but still work for all of us because they commited to finish what they started. who among us will continue to do that ? how many of us have monthly subscriptions even after we got greened? Just by posting on the Internet, or writing petitions nothing will happen.

Imagine if you are with officials and are trying to discuss improvement in system and speak the statement you wrote or start abusing the agency like others on the thread, how do you think the official will react? Put yourself in his position and imagine if someone comes to you in your office for help and start abusing you. Will you help him? for better advocacy such immature comments are a non starter. We all have a lot to learn before we do advocacy. As always, for better advocacy first we need to look beyond our own greencard application and think as a community trying to help each other. Stop the mood swings with every bulletin and focus on fixing the problem.

unlucky_GC
02-13-2013, 12:36 AM
Pappu,

Its not about mood swings with every bulletin...

Its about challenging a existing process inefficiency that take things for granted and has luxury to put things on-hold and sleep for 9 Months and taking things for unrealistic rush processing in the last 2 - 3 months leaving some annual quota go unused and unaccountable.

Still I am not clear what should be the action plan to bring this missing transparency.

you say, "Visa bulletin is a small item in many things" , "lawmakers or senior officials nobody even knows what spillover and what prediction or tracking is"......

are we under the strong pre-assumption that our voices will not be heard on this?


Just taking the situation with EB2 for India.

If the demand data does not show huge demand prior to 05 then what is consuming the numbers? What is monthly visa usage target? Is that target being exhausted every month? Does new 275 to 300 visa demand popup every month? Is the 50% of annual quota exhausted so far with the current cutoff date in this past 6 months? (no one can answer to this questions clearly and accurately)

Rightly said,

1, they use lack of transparency and confusion are their main weapon.

2, For administrative easiness, they put full blame on volume porting and put things on-hold and inaction for 3 quarters.

3, They take things for processing in last quarter with big mad rush in the movement and random approvals. Ultimately, some of the annual quota go unused with all this confusions.

More than anything, Itís a open administrative injustice.

What has to be the community action plan for this..

1, Should we complain to the ombudsman?

2, Raise this from the community level to the DHS / DOS / USCIS leadership ?

3, File a suite/ complaint asking for full transparency in visa consumption and process.?

4, Do nothing. Just sit and watch this saga happening again and again? And focusing our full efforts only with new legislative repairs. (CIR & HR 3012).

pappu
02-13-2013, 06:58 AM
Visas are not going unused or unaccountable in the last 5 years. If you have evidence to prove otherwise, please send us and be prepared to come and present it to USCIS or immigration subcommittee members. We will take it up. If you are so sure of your statement, go ahead and file lawsut yourself and waste your money. Nobody is taking things for granted and putting things on hold for 9 months. It's the kind of talk people do on forums and feel happy bashing the agency. Some other site owners maybe also joining to pander to the crowd for business interest. But it is not so. Officials are interested in listening. Changes take time due to long approval process but you have to be willing to persevere and keep the momentum. Do not just come to forums once every month to check visa bulletin or expect others to take care of the problem while everyone else become freeriders. Problem does not exist for EB2india. EB3 most backlogged folks have stopped looking at bulletins and have lost hope. If you are only looking at your own priority date and make the only focus of immigration as visa bulletins, then it is incorrect. The root cause of the problem is not visa bulletin but lack of visas available due to high number of applicants.

Flyingcrow
02-13-2013, 09:09 AM
View a Hearing or Meeting (http://www.judiciary.senate.gov/hearings/hearing.cfm?id=edb04882c2725d013ec8d198a622e257)

Don't understand why I don't not have the access to create a new thread.

SGP
02-13-2013, 09:16 AM
View a Hearing or Meeting (http://www.judiciary.senate.gov/hearings/hearing.cfm?id=edb04882c2725d013ec8d198a622e257)

Don't understand why I don't not have the access to create a new thread.

Neither do I... I too would seek reply from the Moderators for this.