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beautifulMind
08-19-2009, 08:54 PM
Due to the economic downturn there aren't many companies sponsoring GCs for employees. I doubt it would be more than 20 to 30k per year from now. This leaves 100-110k visas available every year for retrogressed countries like india and china

if there 300-400k pending GC applications in all categories then shouldn't all of us get our GC in next 3-4 years?

Honda
08-19-2009, 09:26 PM
Due to the economic downturn there aren't many companies sponsoring GCs for employees. I doubt it would be more than 20 to 30k per year from now. This leaves 100-110k visas available every year for retrogressed countries like india and china

if there 300-400k pending GC applications in all categories then shouldn't all of us get our GC in next 3-4 years?

There is no way to clean every thing with in 3 to 4 years, Why because like EB3 china and India had country limit per year.

fairman
08-19-2009, 11:04 PM
Due to the economic downturn there aren't many companies sponsoring GCs for employees. I doubt it would be more than 20 to 30k per year from now. This leaves 100-110k visas available every year for retrogressed countries like india and china

if there 300-400k pending GC applications in all categories then shouldn't all of us get our GC in next 3-4 years?

The downturn also causes 'GC pending' applicants to be laid off.

immigrant2007
08-20-2009, 01:41 AM
Mil gaya to nariyal phodunga... bas aur kya bolu?
(If I get it, I will break a coconut, what else can I say?)

Amen

xyz2009
08-20-2009, 02:50 AM
I also reached this conclusion that....GC perm apps right now in the first 9 immigration calendar months is at an all time low and if this is indicator for future then huge ROW numbers would be going waste and by law they then will percolate to retrogressed countries like India and China and I also foresee huge PD moving in 2009-2010 calendar yr starting Oct 1 2010. I think they will increase quarter by quarter rather than month by month and by this time next year many people might get their GCs.

Yes this is a serious plus point and ofcourse yes having jobs intact during this period would be the key...so given that is OK then GCs should start coming...I agree with beautiful mind

Regards

ncrtpMay2004
08-20-2009, 09:20 AM
Only if the assumption that the new i140 and 485 application will be low. This assumption depends on type of economic recovery.

rockstart
08-20-2009, 09:36 AM
I am not sure. There are two red flags I see in this argument. The first is that for your wish to come true next 4 years you need only 30K GC labor to be filed. But analyst are predicting recession to be over by this year end or 2nd qtr of 2010 after which hiring will start and also the whole GC process. The second argument is in 2009 we were in recession with 30K apps filed but we did not see any huge jump in EB2 numbers if this bulletin had put dates in 2006 range then we could have said that the spill was really large. Looks like the spill was not huge since every one knew that EB2I was always somehwere near 2004. all they did was put it all the way to cover entire 2004.

Due to the economic downturn there aren't many companies sponsoring GCs for employees. I doubt it would be more than 20 to 30k per year from now. This leaves 100-110k visas available every year for retrogressed countries like india and china

if there 300-400k pending GC applications in all categories then shouldn't all of us get our GC in next 3-4 years?

geevikram
08-20-2009, 10:20 AM
I guess you need to give them a little bit more time. Watch out for visa bulletins till the end of this year, maybe that will give us some pointers.

IfYouSeekAmy
08-20-2009, 10:34 AM
Break a coconut?? Is that slang for opening a bottle?????

Mil gaya to nariyal phodunga... bas aur kya bolu?
(If I get it, I will break a coconut, what else can I say?)

new_horizon
08-20-2009, 11:35 AM
Does anyone in the IV core have any comment on this? Pls do express. Thanks.

Marphad
08-20-2009, 12:30 PM
There is no way to clean every thing with in 3 to 4 years, Why because like EB3 china and India had country limit per year.

Country limit is EXCLUDED for employment based visa spill over. Read USCIS policy.

pappu
08-20-2009, 12:43 PM
Due to the economic downturn there aren't many companies sponsoring GCs for employees. I doubt it would be more than 20 to 30k per year from now. This leaves 100-110k visas available every year for retrogressed countries like india and china

if there 300-400k pending GC applications in all categories then shouldn't all of us get our GC in next 3-4 years?

This is wishful thinking. See the data for 2001-2003 when economy was not that good. We still have backlog from those years.

Country limit is EXCLUDED for employment based visa spill over. Read USCIS policy.

Marphad, Do not count on spillovers. Unless you are in EB2. Even in EB2, there will be few years of wait. If you are EB3, forget about gaining much from spillovers. Country caps, recapture, STEM exemption kind of provisions are the only hope. People need to focus on provisions rather than counting numbers, trackers and making excel sheets. It is a waste of valuable time you can use to do something constructive to alleviate the problem.

h1techSlave
08-20-2009, 12:43 PM
It is my understanding that many GC applicants do not need labor clearance. Nurses, EB1 folks etc. etc. So the total demand for GC = 30K labor cases + 100K non-labor cases. That would only leave 10K for retrogressed countries.

Due to the economic downturn there aren't many companies sponsoring GCs for employees. I doubt it would be more than 20 to 30k per year from now. This leaves 100-110k visas available every year for retrogressed countries like india and china

if there 300-400k pending GC applications in all categories then shouldn't all of us get our GC in next 3-4 years?

beautifulMind
08-20-2009, 02:13 PM
I Still think we have a good chance atleast all those with priority date before today.


The economy is not improving and I doubt if it will in next 4-5 years. Even though there is slight improvent the jobless claims went up
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMhGnVzXaSfM


No way nurses and EB1 would count more than 5-6k per year....

Even out of the 30-40k like I said before about 50% would be from india and china (mostley Eb3) with later priority dates which puts them behind us

Eb2 Filings have drasticaally gone down because of the USCIS rule

Even after giving away all spill over visas to EB2 india and china they will have a lot of visas pending and If USCIS has made the decision that no Visa will go wasted period then we definitely have a great chance


Again my assumption is based on the FACT that USCIS has a policy that all employment Visa numebrs must be used



Lets keep it simple. In the next 4 years there will be 140k * 4 = 560K visas and I would say out of that the only ones with priority before Eb3 india and China are

Eb1 ROW +india & china
EB2 ROW
EB2 India + china (very limited new cases)

and I don't think the above categories would count more than 150k which should leave a lot of pending visas for Eb3

Which would leave a lot of Visa numbers for Eb3 India/china and ROW

swamy
08-20-2009, 02:32 PM
the effort to address the ugly country caps and retrogression in general shouldnt depend on someone else's misfortune - why should we profit from some other familiy's heartache? the system is atrocious and needs to be reformed - even if you get your gc tomorrow, hopefully u wont instantly join the group that wants to shut the door on those following-& pls make sure whateevr u sire too doesnt turn anti like the nutcases that i've come across

senthil1
08-20-2009, 03:43 PM
If total number of GCs pending were 400k till date. If another 4 years only 50k or less Eb applications from 2009.
Then 2012 Eb3 PD will be 2007 or 2008 and EB2 will become current. Also in 400k many drop outs will be there due to recession
So it is a reasonable calculation that PD will start improve from 2010 end. Only problem is CIS should not waste Visa. Each number of waste of visa will impact EB3

the effort to address the ugly country caps and retrogression in general shouldnt depend on someone else's misfortune - why should we profit from some other familiy's heartache? the system is atrocious and needs to be reformed - even if you get your gc tomorrow, hopefully u wont instantly join the group that wants to shut the door on those following-& pls make sure whateevr u sire too doesnt turn anti like the nutcases that i've come across

beautifulMind
08-20-2009, 04:12 PM
My Priority Dte is 2007 jan Eb3. I am hoping to getGC by 2011 Sept. Another 2 years

vbkris77
08-20-2009, 04:13 PM
I Still think we have a good chance atleast all those with priority date before today.


The economy is not improving and I doubt if it will in next 4-5 years. Even though there is slight improvent the jobless claims went up
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose by 15,000 to 576,000 (Update1) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMhGnVzXaSfM)


No way nurses and EB1 would count more than 5-6k per year....

Even out of the 30-40k like I said before about 50% would be from india and china (mostley Eb3) with later priority dates which puts them behind us

Eb2 Filings have drasticaally gone down because of the USCIS rule

Even after giving away all spill over visas to EB2 india and china they will have a lot of visas pending and If USCIS has made the decision that no Visa will go wasted period then we definitely have a great chance


Again my assumption is based on the FACT that USCIS has a policy that all employment Visa numebrs must be used



Lets keep it simple. In the next 4 years there will be 140k * 4 = 560K visas and I would say out of that the only ones with priority before Eb3 india and China are

Eb1 ROW +india & china
EB2 ROW
EB2 India + china (very limited new cases)

and I don't think the above categories would count more than 150k which should leave a lot of pending visas for Eb3

Which would leave a lot of Visa numbers for Eb3 India/china and ROW

EB1 historically filled and this year CIS said, they may have to retro the India dates, but didn't finally. EB2 in best case got 15K visas. There are lot of EB3 to EB2 porting that will happen if the dates don't move. So EB2 it self will take 4 years to corss 2007 (I only added 25% of the porting). EB3 I God only knows..

Remember there are only 40K visas for EB2. EB3 will use their own 40K visas. 10K from this is reserved to otherworkers. So these dates won't move unless Recapture happens and per country limits are removed atleast till the backlog is cleared.

saatiish
08-20-2009, 04:13 PM
Due to the economic downturn there aren't many companies sponsoring GCs for employees. I doubt it would be more than 20 to 30k per year from now. This leaves 100-110k visas available every year for retrogressed countries like india and china

if there 300-400k pending GC applications in all categories then shouldn't all of us get our GC in next 3-4 years?

I thought there was a country limit on how many gcs are approved for a country per year. So even if there is a spill over - can a backlogged country like India use it because of the limit ?

Rb_newsletter
08-20-2009, 04:24 PM
Country caps, recapture, STEM exemption kind of provisions are the only hope.


Just for my understanding, why are we not talking about excluding dependents from EB count? If each primary applicant consumes nearly 2.5 visa, then excluding dependents will definitely be useful.

We don't talk about this because it is not feasible to achieve? Or does it slips out of our mind?


NB: I am not sure about the number 2.5; I remember this number from another thread.

vbkris77
08-20-2009, 04:30 PM
Just for my understanding, why are we not talking about excluding dependents from EB count? If each primary applicant consumes nearly 2.5 visa, then excluding dependents will definitely be useful.

We don't talk about this because it is not feasible to achieve? Or does it slips out of our mind?


NB: I am not sure about the number 2.5; I remember this number from another thread.

I know it is part of IV agenda!!! But its all like wishlist.

rsdang1
08-20-2009, 04:44 PM
Wasnt there some official from USCIS that said that EB2 from India with 09 priority date can expect a 5-6 year wait...

I am sure some one here would have the exact quotes...

hpandey
08-20-2009, 04:51 PM
I Still think we have a good chance atleast all those with priority date before today.


The economy is not improving and I doubt if it will in next 4-5 years. Even though there is slight improvent the jobless claims went up
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose by 15,000 to 576,000 (Update1) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMhGnVzXaSfM)


No way nurses and EB1 would count more than 5-6k per year....

Even out of the 30-40k like I said before about 50% would be from india and china (mostley Eb3) with later priority dates which puts them behind us

Eb2 Filings have drasticaally gone down because of the USCIS rule

Even after giving away all spill over visas to EB2 india and china they will have a lot of visas pending and If USCIS has made the decision that no Visa will go wasted period then we definitely have a great chance


Again my assumption is based on the FACT that USCIS has a policy that all employment Visa numebrs must be used



Lets keep it simple. In the next 4 years there will be 140k * 4 = 560K visas and I would say out of that the only ones with priority before Eb3 india and China are

Eb1 ROW +india & china
EB2 ROW
EB2 India + china (very limited new cases)

and I don't think the above categories would count more than 150k which should leave a lot of pending visas for Eb3

Which would leave a lot of Visa numbers for Eb3 India/china and ROW


Only time would tell if you are right or wrong but I like your view. Shows a ray of hope in an otherwise bleak outlook of the future.
:)

radhay
08-20-2009, 05:11 PM
Glad to see there is some hope in future for EB3 I.

But we shouldn't rest on these hopes. If we can get at-least couple of items on IV agenda (recapture , STEM) passed we should all be greened for sure.

Heres hoping for the best.

easygoer
08-20-2009, 05:21 PM
Break a coconut?? Is that slang for opening a bottle?????

Break the coconut is slang for sacrifcing animal to god. Traditionally, animal sacrifice was replaced by coconut.

immigrant2007
08-20-2009, 11:46 PM
it's an irony,funny people, they discuss and keep alive that stupid thread for Shar rukh khan,whereas they dont think it is important to keep alive some other good threads
BTW thanks for the optisim of certain people that there are some good informaiton and threads on this site. If it was left to those discussing shah rukh's issue ..then....., I gues everyone is intelligent enought to think that

immigrant2007
08-21-2009, 12:02 AM
This is a question and request for all my friends here who read this thread, please take a moment and think what we need and what all can do.
If all of us (imagine all who are stuck in this backlog moribund) start an endless campaign till we see the results we want dont you think it is possible, I urge eveyrone to respond to this, if someone wants to abuse me...curse me please do so but please everyone respnd to this..alteast give a try we cant stop anything till we have actually tried and tried and tried......

We might agree at first, we will try again , lets keep on doing that till we succeed. Please understand each one of us and help themselves and all of us.

I suggest a title for our campaign
"HOW LONG?"3 years, 5 years, 7 years, 10 years, 15 years, 20 years or more?
PD in 2008 was 2001
PD in 2009 was 2001 and so on.........
2001 still stuck,
When will number for 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005,2006,2007,2008,2009 come?