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sachug22
09-14-2009, 03:52 PM
I was among the very first to predict forward movement of EB2 (8 months back when most of the information available suggested no movement). Looking at September approvals i will see there will be very few cases pending from 2002-2004 for EB2 (those pending will be cleared in next few months since PD will stay current).

My estimate is that

EB2-India pending applications with PD older than Dec-2004 no more than 2000.
EB2 India had used 8000-10000 visa in 2009 (5000-7000 in Sept 2009 alone). It will not surprise me if this number is as high as 11-13K.
EB2-India all pending I-485 applications (till July 2007) is around 30000 (as of 1st Oct 2009) * see latter post on how.


Holding following assumptions we will see more forward movement in coming months and whole of 2010 fiscal year.

Slow improvement in economy (fewer new applications from EB2-ROW and EB1)
PERM applications stay stuck (as they are very few approvals in last 12 months)
CIS is force to allocate visa every quarter (leading to large spill-over)
Fewer EB3 to EB2 porting


CIS has prudently processed most old cases (pending for name-checks) and also pre-adjucated most cases filled in 2007-2008. So if they have visa numbers pending we should see big movment in Dec 2009 Visa Bulletin. This movement could cover all EB2-I 2005 cases in next two quarters (by March 2010). How explained below

EB2 gets 10K visa each quarter (28.6% of 140,000 divide by 4)
EB1 gets 10K visa each quarter (28.6% of 140,000 divide by 4)

Assuming 3k spillover from (EB1/EB4/EB5 to EB2) => EB2 will get 13K visa
EB2 ROW uses 7K (700 India, 700 China, +5k others) - there are 6K visa to allocated by Dec 2009 and 12K by March 2010 which will be given to EB2-India.

BEC LCA applicants in 2005 estimate (EB2 India) = 2000 => 4400
EB2-India PERM applicants in 2005 (thanks TempGC) -> 5311 LCA (Around 1300 got approved in aug/sept 2008)= 4000 LCA => 8800 GC

Total pending I-485 in 2005 (EB2 India) ~ 13000

This would mean PD will cross 2005 in next 2 quarters. I have pesimetic estimates so it will not surprise me it the dates move more rapidly.

The analysis is very optimistic and does not account for

Duplicates (multiple I-485 for same person)
Discarded Labor (many people just discard the perm since they switch jobs or did not want to do GC)
Upgrades (people had EB2 perm but got GC in EB1 category)
Cross-chargeability (with spouse of PERM hold birth from non retrogressed country)
Denied I-140/I-485 after PERM approval


If these makeup 10-20% applications then dates should move faster.

immi_seeker
09-14-2009, 04:04 PM
I was among the very first to predict forward movement of EB2 (8 months back when most of the information available suggested no movement). Looking at September approvals i will see there will be very few cases pending from 2002-2004 for EB2 (those pending will be cleared in next few months since PD will stay current).

My estimate is that

EB2-India pending applications with PD older than Dec-2004 no more than 2000.
EB2 India had used 8000-10000 visa in 2009 (5000-7000 in Sept 2009 alone)


Holding following assumptions we will see more forward movement in coming months and whole of 2010 fiscal year.

Slow improvement in economy (fewer new applications from EB2-ROW and EB1)
PERM applications stay stuck (as they are very few approvals in last 12 months)
CIS is force to allocate visa every quarter (leading to large spill-over)
Fewer EB3 to EB2 porting


CIS has prudently processed most old cases (pending for name-checks) and also pre-adjucated most cases filled in 2007-2008. So if they have visa numbers pending we should see big movment in Dec 2009 Visa Bulletin. This movement could cover all EB2-I 2005 cases in next two quarters (by March 2010). How explained below

EB2 gets 10K visa each quarter (28.6% of 140,000 divide by 4)
EB1 gets 10K visa each quarter (28.6% of 140,000 divide by 4)

Assuming 3k spillover from (EB1/EB4/EB5 to EB2) => EB2 will get 13K visa
EB2 ROW uses 7K (700 India, 700 China, +5k others) - there are 6K visa to allocated by Dec 2009 and 12K by March 2010 which will be given to EB2-India.

BEC LCA applicants in 2005 estimate (EB2 India) = 2000 => 4400
PERM applicants in 2005 (7276 of this 40% are Indian and 60% from EB2 ) -> 1750 LCA
1100 LCA => 3850 GC

Total pending I-485 in 2005 (EB2 India) ~ 8000

This would mean PD will cross 2005 in next 2 quarters. I have pesimetic estimates so it will not surprise me it the dates move more rapidly.



seems to be a good and close to accurate analysis. we have to wait & see

dvb123
09-14-2009, 04:07 PM
1. I-140 premium processing will increase ROW applications
2. 29 months opt is causing ROW applicants to bypass
H1-B and go for GC directly
3. Due to pre-adjudication Labor substitution applicants with substituted priority dates are in frontline
4. Porting from EB3 to EB2 is being done for atleast 10% EB3 applicants with recapture of priority date
5. Perm was introduced in early 2005 and lot of EB2 applications labors were approved in 2005

Hence EB2 will not cross 2005. If it crosses it will come back in a month.

vjkypally
09-14-2009, 04:08 PM
Tere Muh mein:) Ghee Shakkar:D

tempgc
09-14-2009, 04:15 PM
PERM applicants in 2005 (7276 of this 40% are Indian and 60% from EB2 ) -> 1750 LCA
1100 LCA => 3850 GC
.
I got the below numbers from the PERM FDLC site for the applications filed in 2005 and approved in different years of 2005,6,7,8
2005 India 1353 (filed in 2005 and approved in 2005)
2006 India 3888 (filed in 2005 and approved in 2006)
2007 India 60 (filed in 2005 and approved in 2007)
2008 India 10 (filed in 2005 and approved in 2008)

Total 5311
5311 for both EB1-5 : So taking 50% for EB2I - 2655
GC : 2655*2.5 = 6637 ~ 6500 (considering lucky 2008 Aug-Sep approvals, 2009 Sept)

tempgc
09-14-2009, 04:21 PM
1. I-140 premium processing will increase ROW applications

Its next to impossible to get approval of EB2 PERM and 140 in the current situation.

2. 29 months opt is causing ROW applicants to bypass
H1-B and go for GC directly
I doubt validity of this stmt

5. Perm was introduced in early 2005 and lot of EB2 applications labors were approved in 2005
.
Its only 2655 for EB2I in 2005 PERM.

TeddyKoochu
09-14-2009, 04:24 PM
I got the below numbers from the PERM FDLC site.
2005 India 1353
2006 India 3888
2007 India 60
2008 India 10

Total 5311
5311 for both EB1-5 : So taking 50% for EB2I - 2655
GC : 2655*2.5 = 6637 ~ 6500 (considering lucky 2008 Aug-Sep approvals, 2009 Sept)

What are the hopes for individuals who missed Jul 07. In my case my labor got approved in Oct 07 and we are still waiting for the date to be current to be able to file for EAD / AP. Based on the figures that you show, I believe that all 2006 people should get cleared in the coming year and the traffic for 2007 & 2008 is quite less. What are the predictions for the PD movement till year end?

vbkris77
09-14-2009, 04:35 PM
I got the below numbers from the PERM FDLC site.
2005 India 1353
2006 India 3888
2007 India 60
2008 India 10

Total 5311
5311 for both EB1-5 : So taking 50% for EB2I - 2655
GC : 2655*2.5 = 6637 ~ 6500 (considering lucky 2008 Aug-Sep approvals, 2009 Sept)

Unless you source is different from mine, India total PERM LCs were as below.

2005&2006 - 25000
2007 - 25000
2008 - Not many
2009 - Not many, but unknown

Even at 50% EB2, EB3, we will have a long wait. There will be a visa demand of upto 60,000 for EB2.

We know that sometime back, one of an IV member got response from a senator that EB2 India backlog is 45,000. Even if I agree that there are 5K approvals in Sep 09 alone, EB2 still has 40,000 pending with PD before July. I am only adding 40% from there even though every India applicant knows that EB3 F***dup and a joke.

So we have a long wait.. Lets admit it..

gc_on_demand
09-14-2009, 04:41 PM
What are the hopes for individuals who missed Jul 07. In my case my labor got approved in Oct 07 and we are still waiting for the date to be current to be able to file for EAD / AP. Based on the figures that you show, I believe that all 2006 people should get cleared in the coming year and the traffic for 2007 & 2008 is quite less. What are the predictions for the PD movement till year end?

Your PD will be current by Sep 2010. Or if you are lucky you may get GC by that time.

If you get GC donate to IV.

gc_on_demand
09-14-2009, 04:45 PM
I was among the very first to predict forward movement of EB2 (8 months back when most of the information available suggested no movement). Looking at September approvals i will see there will be very few cases pending from 2002-2004 for EB2 (those pending will be cleared in next few months since PD will stay current).

My estimate is that

EB2-India pending applications with PD older than Dec-2004 no more than 2000.
EB2 India had used 8000-10000 visa in 2009 (5000-7000 in Sept 2009 alone)


Holding following assumptions we will see more forward movement in coming months and whole of 2010 fiscal year.

Slow improvement in economy (fewer new applications from EB2-ROW and EB1)
PERM applications stay stuck (as they are very few approvals in last 12 months)
CIS is force to allocate visa every quarter (leading to large spill-over)
Fewer EB3 to EB2 porting


CIS has prudently processed most old cases (pending for name-checks) and also pre-adjucated most cases filled in 2007-2008. So if they have visa numbers pending we should see big movment in Dec 2009 Visa Bulletin. This movement could cover all EB2-I 2005 cases in next two quarters (by March 2010). How explained below

EB2 gets 10K visa each quarter (28.6% of 140,000 divide by 4)
EB1 gets 10K visa each quarter (28.6% of 140,000 divide by 4)

Assuming 3k spillover from (EB1/EB4/EB5 to EB2) => EB2 will get 13K visa
EB2 ROW uses 7K (700 India, 700 China, +5k others) - there are 6K visa to allocated by Dec 2009 and 12K by March 2010 which will be given to EB2-India.

BEC LCA applicants in 2005 estimate (EB2 India) = 2000 => 4400
PERM applicants in 2005 (7276 of this 40% are Indian and 60% from EB2 ) -> 1750 LCA
1100 LCA => 3850 GC

Total pending I-485 in 2005 (EB2 India) ~ 8000

This would mean PD will cross 2005 in next 2 quarters. I have pesimetic estimates so it will not surprise me it the dates move more rapidly.


I think Eb2 india got more than you think... It must be 15k or more from Spill and I do expect that india will get 30k spill this year.which will clear 05, 06 and half or 1st quarter of 2007

MYGC2008
09-14-2009, 04:50 PM
Do we know the exact Approved EB2 Labors for INDIA. (Year 2005 means Oct 2004 to Sept 2005). because PERM is introdiced in mid 2005.This is Critical

Also I have a question: Does Prevailing Wage Level determine the EB Category? (EB2 Prevailing Wage Type = Level II) If this assumption is correct then for 2006 (Oct 1 2005 to Sept 2006) there are 11000 approved EB2 INDIA Labors.

pointlesswait
09-14-2009, 05:45 PM
This a very optimistic prediction....

i think .. most with PD of jan 2005 and earlier will get their GC ..thus in OCT VB the dates will pull back a bit..maybe mid 2004...so first qtr will be bad news for anyone with a PD after jan 2005,...but the 2nd and 3rd qtr.. the dates will be definitely be in mid 2006.

my 1/4 cent

Jerrome
09-14-2009, 06:05 PM
Your assumption is correct, But i am not sure if the spillover happens every quarter. Are you sure it happens every quarter. I thought it happens only @ last quarter.

Rb_newsletter
09-14-2009, 08:26 PM
What are the hopes for individuals who missed Jul 07. In my case my labor got approved in Oct 07 and we are still waiting for the date to be current to be able to file for EAD / AP.

My dear friend, always you have to be hopeful, and cheerful.
If you want to build your hope look at people who are waiting with PDs in 2009.

This is a great thread. I don't know how real are the predictions, but this thread gives a great energy. lots of thanks to OP.

InTheMoment
09-14-2009, 10:16 PM
It is important to know the numbers of traditional labors filed in year 2005 before PERM was implemented on March 28, 2005. Does anybody have hard numbers on these ?

This is a very relevant piece of info, as tons were filed because PERM was a new animal and no one wanted to play around with it before they understood it.

DSLStart
09-14-2009, 11:11 PM
ALL perm cases
Mar-05 1
Apr-05 13
May-05 72
Jun-05 324
Jul-05 351
Aug-05 833
Sep-05 1172
Oct-05 1212
Nov-05 1541
Dec-05 1771


If these numbers are to be believed, then EB2-I could advance till Dec 2005 with ease by Dec bulletin, though some stats for Feb & March 05 (regular labor) also needs to be analysed...

rsharma
09-14-2009, 11:51 PM
If these numbers are to be believed, then EB2-I could advance till Dec 2005 with ease by Dec bulletin, though some stats for Feb & March 05 (regular labor) also needs to be analysed...

Dude, we need to take into account the thousands of EB3 I -> EB2 I conversions :(

shiankuraaf
09-15-2009, 12:40 AM
This a very optimistic prediction....

i think .. most with PD of jan 2005 and earlier will get their GC ..thus in OCT VB the dates will pull back a bit..maybe mid 2004...so first qtr will be bad news for anyone with a PD after jan 2005,...but the 2nd and 3rd qtr.. the dates will be definitely be in mid 2006.

my 1/4 cent

What I expect is, with the pre-adjudication USCIS has the approvable numbers in hand and all the Visa numbers for the 1 st quarter will be released and consumed immediatly by the pre-adjudicated cases and then in Nov bulletin it will be 'U' and again in Dec it would move couple of weeks or most probably a month to consume the querterly spill over if that exists. I do not think there will be any retro for EB2 India in coming 2 quarters unless there are too many new labour approvals giving chance to file AOS with later PDs or EB3 to EB2 porting.

My 1 cent.

vdlrao
09-15-2009, 03:42 AM
Year, TOT_LBRS, Certified, LBR_INDIA PD_>_10/1/2001
2000 074048 70204 ????? 0
2001 082139 77921 ????? 0
2002 089168 79784 ????? 7873
2003 095299 62912 ????? 25956
2004 098866 43582 ????? 26569
2005 014253 06133 01350 6133
2006 105960 79782 22298 79782
2007 098753 85112 24573 85112
2008 061997 21092 07198 21092
Total 720483 526522 55419 252517



http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum2-retrogression-priority-dates-and-visa-bulletins/23813-perm-labor-data-analysis.html


In 2005 there are a total of 01350 labors certified only for India.
In 2006 there are a total of 22298 labors certified only for India.

The other important thing here to note down is there are many outsourcing companies out there filed/filing GCs for their so called managers in EB1 category.

ksrk
09-15-2009, 03:47 AM
Assuming 3k spillover from (EB1/EB4/EB5 to EB2) => EB2 will get 13K visa
EB2 ROW uses 7K (700 India, 700 China, +5k others) - there are 6K visa to allocated by Dec 2009 and 12K by March 2010 which will be given to EB2-India.

BEC LCA applicants in 2005 estimate (EB2 India) = 2000 => 4400
PERM applicants in 2005 (7276 of this 40% are Indian and 60% from EB2 ) -> 1750 LCA
1100 LCA => 3850 GC

Total pending I-485 in 2005 (EB2 India) ~ 8000

This would mean PD will cross 2005 in next 2 quarters. I have pesimetic estimates so it will not surprise me it the dates move more rapidly.

...a question, though, about how the spillover is assigned back to over-subscribed countries (India and China) - does that happen in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (lately in the last month or two) or does it happen each quarter? Looks like your analysis assumes it happens each quarter...

TeddyKoochu
09-15-2009, 08:35 AM
My dear friend, always you have to be hopeful, and cheerful.
If you want to build your hope look at people who are waiting with PDs in 2009.

This is a great thread. I don't know how real are the predictions, but this thread gives a great energy. lots of thanks to OP.

You are correct, being hopeful & cheerful is extremely important for all of us here. The spillover really holds the key as to how things would be moving.

TeddyKoochu
09-15-2009, 08:52 AM
Year, TOT_LBRS, Certified, LBR_INDIA PD_>_10/1/2001
2000 074048 70204 ????? 0
2001 082139 77921 ????? 0
2002 089168 79784 ????? 7873
2003 095299 62912 ????? 25956
2004 098866 43582 ????? 26569
2005 014253 06133 01350 6133
2006 105960 79782 22298 79782
2007 098753 85112 24573 85112
2008 061997 21092 07198 21092
Total 720483 526522 55419 252517



http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum2-retrogression-priority-dates-and-visa-bulletins/23813-perm-labor-data-analysis.html


In 2005 there are a total of 01350 labors certified only for India.
In 2006 there are a total of 22298 labors certified only for India.

The other important thing here to note down is there are many outsourcing companies out there filed/filing GCs for their so called managers in EB1 category.

Friends looks like that there is a consensus that folks with 2005 will get their GC soon, all of you have stated that there are very few labors for this year. How do we divide the labors for 2006, if we give 50% of them to EB2 I then I believe that by Sep 2010 year 2006 should get cleaned out. Another point is how the spillover is allocated quarterly, annually or randomly (How do we explain EB2I going back to 01 Jan 2000 and then recovering back). Definitely a quarterly spillover will make predictions & life easier! Something to factor is EB2-C, EB2-I date has almost caught up, traditionally it stays 1 yr behind (EB2-I lags EB2-C) in the early part of the year, this could be huge factor if both catch up.

eb2_mumbai
09-15-2009, 09:21 AM
Dude, we need to take into account the thousands of EB3 I -> EB2 I conversions :(

Its not as easy as you make it sound. If a person starts today for a new EB2 labor it will take least 1.5 years to get new I 140 approved. This is without any RFE at either stage. Considering today's environment where even simple H1 transfer has become a challenge it takes a really brave person to be playing with fire. Most consulting companies are not enthusiasitc about filing labors and fulltime companies have already said that they are getting too many responses to job advertisement so labor cannot be filed.

Add to that it takes least $7000 to file both labor and 140 in terms of expenses.

vjkypally
09-15-2009, 09:39 AM
We need to fight against this fraud by outsourcing companies who file for EB1 for their so called managers. IV needs to take this up with USCIS.Year, TOT_LBRS, Certified, LBR_INDIA PD_>_10/1/2001
2000 074048 70204 ????? 0
2001 082139 77921 ????? 0
2002 089168 79784 ????? 7873
2003 095299 62912 ????? 25956
2004 098866 43582 ????? 26569
2005 014253 06133 01350 6133
2006 105960 79782 22298 79782
2007 098753 85112 24573 85112
2008 061997 21092 07198 21092
Total 720483 526522 55419 252517



http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum2-retrogression-priority-dates-and-visa-bulletins/23813-perm-labor-data-analysis.html


In 2005 there are a total of 01350 labors certified only for India.
In 2006 there are a total of 22298 labors certified only for India.

The other important thing here to note down is there are many outsourcing companies out there filed/filing GCs for their so called managers in EB1 category.

gbof
09-15-2009, 10:51 AM
I was among the very first to predict forward movement of EB2 (8 months back when most of the information available suggested no movement). Looking at September approvals i will see there will be very few cases pending from 2002-2004 for EB2 (those pending will be cleared in next few months since PD will stay current).

My estimate is that

EB2-India pending applications with PD older than Dec-2004 no more than 2000.
EB2 India had used 8000-10000 visa in 2009 (5000-7000 in Sept 2009 alone)


Holding following assumptions we will see more forward movement in coming months and whole of 2010 fiscal year.

Slow improvement in economy (fewer new applications from EB2-ROW and EB1)
PERM applications stay stuck (as they are very few approvals in last 12 months)
CIS is force to allocate visa every quarter (leading to large spill-over)
Fewer EB3 to EB2 porting


CIS has prudently processed most old cases (pending for name-checks) and also pre-adjucated most cases filled in 2007-2008. So if they have visa numbers pending we should see big movment in Dec 2009 Visa Bulletin. This movement could cover all EB2-I 2005 cases in next two quarters (by March 2010). How explained below

EB2 gets 10K visa each quarter (28.6% of 140,000 divide by 4)
EB1 gets 10K visa each quarter (28.6% of 140,000 divide by 4)

Assuming 3k spillover from (EB1/EB4/EB5 to EB2) => EB2 will get 13K visa
EB2 ROW uses 7K (700 India, 700 China, +5k others) - there are 6K visa to allocated by Dec 2009 and 12K by March 2010 which will be given to EB2-India.

BEC LCA applicants in 2005 estimate (EB2 India) = 2000 => 4400
PERM applicants in 2005 (7276 of this 40% are Indian and 60% from EB2 ) -> 1750 LCA
1100 LCA => 3850 GC

Total pending I-485 in 2005 (EB2 India) ~ 8000

This would mean PD will cross 2005 in next 2 quarters. I have pesimetic estimates so it will not surprise me it the dates move more rapidly.

I know a lot many people filed duplicate AOS (like one spouse primary and the other derivative on each other petition). Now after approval of one, have to withdraw 2nd petition. This will further reduce the pending AOS numbers and will help moving the dates forward...

ocpmachine
09-15-2009, 11:43 AM
This thread is getting very interesting with all the logical calculations and predictions, thanks OP.

One aspect that was missed in the discussions so far is, during Aug-Sep'08 many folks with 2005/06 PD's got their GC, USCIS picked these cases on random and not sure how many with 2005/06 PD's were approved but it a sizeable number, so this reduces the pending numbers for 2005/06 PD cases as well. I am predicting by Sep'10 we should see all of 2006 PD's cleared up.

-Cheers

eb2_mumbai
09-15-2009, 11:46 AM
This thread is getting very interesting with all the logical calculations and predictions, thanks OP.

One aspect that was missed in the discussions so far is, during Aug-Sep'08 many folks with 2005/06 PD's got their GC, USCIS picked these cases on random and not sure how many with 2005/06 PD's were approved but it a sizeable number, so this reduces the pending numbers for 2005/06 PD cases as well. I am predicting by Sep'10 we should see all of 2006 PD's cleared up.

-Cheers

you are right in Aug 2008 so many people wth PD of 2005 & 2006 got approved. I would have been a lucky one but unfortunately my Birth Certificate turned out to be the culprit and ended with with an RFE. By the time I answered the RFE visa # were exhausted and I was left behind.

ravise
09-15-2009, 11:51 AM
month priority date No of appr 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
June-08 4/1/2004 122 2 9 18 61 30
July-08 4/1/2004 88 1 7 14 29 36
August-08 6/1/2006 261 0 3 5 19 63 103 67
Sept-08 8/1/2006 3 0 1 0 0 2

gbof
09-15-2009, 12:06 PM
month priority date No of appr 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
June-08 4/1/2004 122 2 9 18 61 30
July-08 4/1/2004 88 1 7 14 29 36
August-08 6/1/2006 261 0 3 5 19 63 103 67
Sept-08 8/1/2006 3 0 1 0 0 2

Thanks for this useful info. 05 & 06 approved #s in Q-4 of 08 looks very significant - these alongwith approval of 'multiple filed AOS' will surely reduce wait time for 05-EB2i. Hop[efully before june 05 cases will be done.

brahmam
09-15-2009, 12:29 PM
you are right in Aug 2008 so many people wth PD of 2005 & 2006 got approved. I would have been a lucky one but unfortunately my Birth Certificate turned out to be the culprit and ended with with an RFE. By the time I answered the RFE visa # were exhausted and I was left behind.

Absolutely. this factor needs to be taken into account. One of my friends that filed PERM in sep 2005 before the dreaded retrogression was gonna hit - he got approved in jul/aug 2007 and consumed 2 GCs. another with Nov 2005 data got through last august 2008 and consumed 4 GCs. there are a lot of such folks and not every updates .

the unknown factor though is the traditinoal EB2 RIR labors filed in mar 2005, before PERM got in. Just from CISCO, I think there were around ~1000 applicants.

TeddyKoochu
09-15-2009, 12:36 PM
Thanks for this useful info. 05 & 06 approved #s in Q-4 of 08 looks very significant - these alongwith approval of 'multiple filed AOS' will surely reduce wait time for 05-EB2i. Hop[efully before june 05 cases will be done.

Friends I believe that we are underestimating the cases that have been abandoned due to the bad economy. Individuals having to back, revocations etc. I estimate that we can chop off at least 25% more just by that on top of the existing deductions / reductions. clearing out of the 2006 batch by Sep 2010 looks really very likely.

shreekhand
09-15-2009, 12:55 PM
vdlrao,

Are you 100% sure that the data for calendar year 2005 includes the traditional labor certifications as well ? I did not see any in the txt file given on the DoL website for FY 2005.

Remember missing those out could mean missing huge numbers, I know several who filed from Jan 01, 2005 to just before PERM came into the picture in late March 2005.

Year, TOT_LBRS, Certified, LBR_INDIA PD_>_10/1/2001
2000 074048 70204 ????? 0
2001 082139 77921 ????? 0
2002 089168 79784 ????? 7873
2003 095299 62912 ????? 25956
2004 098866 43582 ????? 26569
2005 014253 06133 01350 6133
2006 105960 79782 22298 79782
2007 098753 85112 24573 85112
2008 061997 21092 07198 21092
Total 720483 526522 55419 252517



http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum2-retrogression-priority-dates-and-visa-bulletins/23813-perm-labor-data-analysis.html


In 2005 there are a total of 01350 labors certified only for India.
In 2006 there are a total of 22298 labors certified only for India.

The other important thing here to note down is there are many outsourcing companies out there filed/filing GCs for their so called managers in EB1 category.

Jerrome
09-15-2009, 01:13 PM
This is the monthwise total for Only PERM for India for year 2005 and 2006.

Month EB (INDIA) # Approved
Jan,05 0
Feb,05 0
Mar,05 1
Apr,05 24
May,05 133
June,05 535
July,05 794
Aug,05 1313
Sep,05 1316
Oct,05 1212
Nov,05 1541
Dec,05 1771
Jan,06 1788
Feb,06 1729
Mar,06 2224
Apr,06 1635
May,06 1876
June,06 1902
July,06 1574
Aug,06 1317
Sep,06 963

PERM 2005 (All EB2+EB3) for India is 8640
PERM upto Sep 2006 (2+3) for india is 15008

So the movement depends on the spillover to EB2 india. I assume if it is in the range of 15 to 20K then it will move upto mid of 2006 by end of 2010 for sure.

If the spill over is in the range > 20K to EB2 india then it will go to September 2006.








Year, TOT_LBRS, Certified, LBR_INDIA PD_>_10/1/2001
2000 074048 70204 ????? 0
2001 082139 77921 ????? 0
2002 089168 79784 ????? 7873
2003 095299 62912 ????? 25956
2004 098866 43582 ????? 26569
2005 014253 06133 01350 6133
2006 105960 79782 22298 79782
2007 098753 85112 24573 85112
2008 061997 21092 07198 21092
Total 720483 526522 55419 252517



http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum2-retrogression-priority-dates-and-visa-bulletins/23813-perm-labor-data-analysis.html


In 2005 there are a total of 01350 labors certified only for India.
In 2006 there are a total of 22298 labors certified only for India.

The other important thing here to note down is there are many outsourcing companies out there filed/filing GCs for their so called managers in EB1 category.

vdlrao
09-15-2009, 01:17 PM
This is the monthwise total for Only PERM for India for year 2005 and 2006.

Month EB (INDIA) # Approved
Jan,05 0
Feb,05 0
Mar,05 1
Apr,05 24
May,05 133
June,05 535
July,05 794
Aug,05 1313
Sep,05 1316
Oct,05 1212
Nov,05 1541
Dec,05 1771
Jan,06 1788
Feb,06 1729
Mar,06 2224
Apr,06 1635
May,06 1876
June,06 1902
July,06 1574
Aug,06 1317
Sep,06 963

PERM 2005 (All EB2+EB3) for India is 8640
PERM upto Sep 2006 (2+3) for india is 15008
So the movement depends on the spillover to EB2 india. I assume if it is in the range of 15 to 20K then it will move upto mid of 2006 by end of 2010 for sure.

If the spill over is in the range > 20K to EB2 india then it will go to September 2006.

How did you say that are Only EB2+ EB3?

extra_mint
09-15-2009, 01:26 PM
Totally Agree with your assumptions, there are few more that can be added like

Some 3-5% people with PD 2005 - 2006 are already approved (as low hanging fruits) during 2008 Aug-Oct period.

Also recent span of RFE's by USCIS (for preadjudication) resulted in flushing out of some applications

In short pending EB2 numbers that you are taking into account will be 10 to 20% less and available visa numbers from spill overs will be 20 to 30% more than what you projects. So forward movement will surely be there.

However there is a doubt related to spill overs every quarter !!
Allocations are surely made on quarter to quarter basis but there is no certain precedence in the past for spill overs, well i would say the past has been shady

I recall once VB where EB2 I was giving numbers from EB1 and this was before the last quarter (happened in FY 2008). We have to wait till Dec, 2009 Bulletin.




The analysis is very optimistic and does not account for

Duplicates (multiple I-485 for same person)
Discarded Labor (many people just discard the perm since they switch jobs or did not want to do GC)
Upgrades (people had EB2 perm but got GC in EB1 category)
Cross-chargeability (with spouse of PERM hold birth from non retrogressed country)


If they all makeup to 10-20% of applicants then the PD will move much faster.

vin13
09-15-2009, 01:41 PM
Seems like the spill-overs happen at the end of the year which helps dates for India to advance.

Has the process changed to where the spill-over is calculated and issued every quarter? If not, this could be a possible administrative change that can be proposed by IV.

immi_seeker
09-15-2009, 01:45 PM
Seems like the spill-overs happen at the end of the year which helps dates for India to advance.

Has the process changed to where the spill-over is calculated and issued every quarter? If not, this could be a possible administrative change that can be proposed by IV.

For FY2010 there are very less GC applications filed by ROW & EB1 due to bad economy. If USCIS waits till last quarter then they wont have much visa usage during previous quarters. So it makes sense for USCIS to allocate spill over numbers on a per quarter basis. We never know how it works

Jerrome
09-15-2009, 01:47 PM
How did you say that are Only EB2+ EB3?

What else is there? EB1 does not have labor right..Does EB4 & EB5 has labor process.

vbkris77
09-15-2009, 01:48 PM
How did you say that are Only EB2+ EB3?

Apart from EB2, EB3 what else would need a PERM?

vin13
09-15-2009, 01:52 PM
For FY2010 there are very less GC applications filed by ROW & EB1 due to bad economy. If USCIS waits till last quarter then they wont have much visa usage during previous quarters. So it makes sense for USCIS to allocate spill over numbers on a per quarter basis. We never know how it works

I agree that it makes sense for USCIS to allocate spill over numbers on a quarterly basis.

But i doubt if they are allocating spillover quarterly. If they did, then we should have seen steady movements and not a rapid movement of dates in the last quarter.

We should certainly get a clarrification from USCIS about this. This could be a potential administrative change without congress intervention.

JalwaeJana
09-15-2009, 01:57 PM
Guys you for got that Eb2 applicant include thos that do not require labor . Also for each labor you would consume 2.3 to 2.5 visa , as with every approved labor there is a spouse and in some cases kids. So to clear 20,000 labor we need 40K visa spilled over to clear all of 2006 plus Eb2 cases that do not require labor

immi_seeker
09-15-2009, 02:09 PM
I agree that it makes sense for USCIS to allocate spill over numbers on a quarterly basis.

But i doubt if they are allocating spillover quarterly. If they did, then we should have seen steady movements and not a rapid movement of dates in the last quarter.

We should certainly get a clarrification from USCIS about this. This could be a potential administrative change without congress intervention.

Doing it in the lat quarter could cuase visa wastage especially this year where it is anticiapted that there will be lot of spill over numbers.

gbof
09-15-2009, 02:22 PM
Doing it in the lat quarter could cuase visa wastage especially this year where it is anticiapted that there will be lot of spill over numbers.


Now, with vast majority (if not almost all) of 07 petitions pre-adjudicated and waiting for visa #s for approvals, it is hard for uscis to wait up-to-end-of-the-year for spill over. Current economy only suggest fewer GC applicants in 09 and 2010

eyeswe
09-15-2009, 02:31 PM
It seems most analysts here think that by Q4 2010 the approval of 485 could theorotically reach mid 2006 with a liberal allocation of spill-overs and a conservative estimate of abandonment etc.

My question is in order for CIS to have sufficient 485 cases to review .. will they not need to advance dates still further so they can start reviewing the apps and in 2-4 years time give those folks the GC.. I am specifically talking about all those who missed the July 2007 bus and whose priority date is after july 30, 07.... any hope for poor souls like us to at least file for EAD in 2010?Or is this wishful thinking?

TeddyKoochu
09-15-2009, 02:45 PM
It seems most analysts here think that by Q4 2010 the approval of 485 could theorotically reach mid 2006 with a liberal allocation of spill-overs and a conservative estimate of abandonment etc.

My question is in order for CIS to have sufficient 485 cases to review .. will they not need to advance dates still further so they can start reviewing the apps and in 2-4 years time give those folks the GC.. I am specifically talking about all those who missed the July 2007 bus and whose priority date is after july 30, 07.... any hope for poor souls like us to at least file for EAD in 2010?Or is this wishful thinking?

Iam also one amongst this lot, as somebody told me be hopeful and cheerful, our day will come. I really understand your pain and suffering, we are kind of the worst affected lot (or atleast one of the worst affected), those who made it in Jul 07 atleast have interim relief. The extent of spillover will really determine our fortunes; I honestly believe that there is a 50-50 chance of it happening this year. Let’s wait for the experts in this group to analyze the data. Since in those days it used to take 2-3 months for labor approval we will have individuals from as early as May 07 who missed the Jul 07 bus, mine is in the last week of July. I hope we will be able to get in the bus and drive out this year!

sachug22
09-15-2009, 02:53 PM
Jerome and scchug22, Would you mind kindly reconcile or revela source.


My data is for all approved PERM case all countries in 2005 (so is incomplete).

thomachan72
09-15-2009, 03:07 PM
Dont know where you guys get all this information but this thread is like a lamp when you are gropping in a dark cave. The tone seems to be very mild (no hatred / quarelling) and everybody seems to maintain and spread a positive attitude. One thing is undeniably true and that is a positive attitude / outlook always attracts positive things. I encourage everybody to purposefully cultivate positive thoughts (eg:- "something surprising good is going to happen").

WeldonSprings
09-15-2009, 03:16 PM
Here is what I researched and found out-

From the data for India

For Permanent applications 2004 => Reduction in Recruitment (EB2 cases)

From 1 April 1004 to 16 August 2004 => 430 appox(All countries)

No data from 17 August 2004 to 28 February 2005.

From 01 March 2005 to 30 September 2005, For Level III- 263 For Level IV-271
= 500 approx.

For 01 October 2005 to March 2006, For Level III- 2500, Level IV-1770
= 4300 approx.

Now, of the GCs approved last Aug.08 and Sept.08 were from the Texas Service Center.

That meant Atlanta Processing Center was the Labor Approval Center.

So, For 01 October 2005 to March 2006
For Level III- 1100, Level IV-770.

So, total left = (2500-1100) + (1770-770) = 1400 + 1100= 2500

Therefore toatl from 01 April 2004 to Mar. 2006=>

430(2004) + 400(mystery number from 16 Aug. 04 to 01 March 2005) + 500(2005) +2500(2006)= 3900 principal applicants.

Multiply by 2 for dependents = 7800 EB2 India pending before Mar. 06.

Please comment on my analysis or feel free to ask questions.

sachug22
09-15-2009, 03:17 PM
Here are my Estimate of pending EB2 India case for give years

<=2004 2000
2005 10000
2006 13000
2007(july) 5000
==============
Total 30000
==============

This number is very close to Ron Gocthers number prediction a few months back (minus sept approvals).

Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis - Page 6 - Immigration Information Discussion Forum (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/general-immigration-questions/8419-collaboration-on-visa-quota-data-analysis-6.html)

Pending as of 15 July 2009 145000
EB2 50000
EB3 94000
EB2India (2.4/3.5 EB2) 35714

We can use the LCA number and come close these numbers as well

2005
EB2 India LCA for 2005 = RIR (3000) + PERM (60% of 7290) ~ 7400
Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 5900
1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 13000 I-485 applicantions
Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 5% cross-charageability we get => pending 10000 pending I-485 application for 2005

2006
India PERM applications = 18000
EB2 India PERM applications (60%) = 10800
Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 8640
1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 19000 I-485 applicantions
Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 10% cross-charageability we get => pending 13000 pending I-485 application for 2006

So if we see spillover of more than 30K the date will move beyond July 2007.

TeddyKoochu
09-15-2009, 03:23 PM
Here is what I researched and found out-

From the data for India

For Permanent applications 2004 => Reduction in Recruitment (EB2 cases)

From 1 April 1004 to 16 August 2004 => 430 appox(All countries)

No data from 17 August 2004 to 28 February 2005.

From 01 March 2005 to 30 September 2005, For Level III- 263 For Level IV-271
= 500 approx.

For 01 October 2005 to March 2006, For Level III- 2500, Level IV-1770
= 4300 approx.

Now, of the GCs approved last Aug.08 and Sept.08 were from the Texas Service Center.

That meant Atlanta Processing Center was the Labor Approval Center.

So, For 01 October 2005 to March 2006
For Level III- 1100, Level IV-770.

So, total left = (2500-1100) + (1770-770) = 1400 + 1100= 2500

Therefore toatl from 01 April 2004 to Mar. 2006=>

430(2004) + 400(mystery number from 16 Aug. 04 to 01 March 2005) + 500(2005) +2500(2006)= 3900 principal applicants.

Multiply by 2 for dependents = 7800 EB2 India pending before Mar. 06.

Please comment on my analysis or feel free to ask questions.

Correct me if Iam wrong I believe that the zone does not map directly to category, for those with bachelors only Zone - 5 maps to EB2, so most of level 3 and 4 that you mention could be EB3.

immi_seeker
09-15-2009, 03:39 PM
Here are my Estimate of pending EB2 India case for give years

<=2004 2000
2005 10000
2006 13000
2007(july) 5000
==============
Total 30000
==============

This number is very close to Ron Gocthers number prediction a few months back (minus sept approvals).

Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis - Page 6 - Immigration Information Discussion Forum (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/general-immigration-questions/8419-collaboration-on-visa-quota-data-analysis-6.html)

Pending as of 15 July 2009 145000
EB2 50000
EB3 94000
EB2India (2.4/3.5 EB2) 35714

We can use the LCA number and come close these numbers as well

2005
EB2 India LCA for 2005 = RIR (3000) + PERM (60% of 7290) ~ 7400
Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 5900
1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 13000 I-485 applicantions
Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 5% cross-charageability we get => pending 10000 pending I-485 application for 2005

2006
India PERM applications = 18000
EB2 India PERM applications (60%) = 10800
Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 8640
1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 19000 I-485 applicantions
Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 10% cross-charageability we get => pending 13000 pending I-485 application for 2006

So if we see spillover of more than 30K the date will move beyond July 2007.


Considering the slow economy that spill over is reasonable.

vdlrao
09-15-2009, 03:44 PM
I just wondering seeing these estimated numbers, with out having a proper information, for the given years.

ocpmachine
09-15-2009, 03:54 PM
I just wondering seeing these estimated numbers, with out having a proper information, for the given years.

Vdlrao,

You are admired a lot for bringing in hope for lot of people with your EB2 prediction thread, can you jump in and throw some numbers here please if you think the numbers quoted are out of way, i understand this is time consuming but since you already did your homework last time around it should take you few minutes to come up with some realistic numbers.

hibworker
09-15-2009, 03:57 PM
Since EB2-I is slowly catching up with EB2-C, future spill overs will be split between the two categories and not all will go to EB2-I.

eb2_mumbai
09-15-2009, 04:10 PM
Since EB2-I is slowly catching up with EB2-C, future spill overs will be split between the two categories and not all will go to EB2-I.
you are correct India will get only 50% of sipill over numbers and we need to take into account how many China applications are pending (perhaps there are more China apps than India in EB2)

sachug22
09-15-2009, 04:16 PM
you are correct India will get only 50% of sipill over numbers and we need to take into account how many China applications are pending (perhaps there are more China apps than India in EB2)

There are 2.5 EB2-I application per EB2-C application. And EB2 China had cutoff dates of early 2005 in 2009 (they did not enjoy too much spillover in 2009). So my guess it that China will use its 3k annual limit + spillover numbers (depending on how much EB2-C dates move). The spillover would be split 25% china and 75% India.

vdlrao
09-15-2009, 04:19 PM
Vdlrao,

You are admired a lot for bringing in hope for lot of people with your EB2 prediction thread, can you jump in and throw some numbers here please if you think the numbers quoted are out of way, i understand this is time consuming but since you already did your homework last time around it should take you few minutes to come up with some realistic numbers.

Hi ocpmachine,

I dont know the exact Eb2 India labors certified for the given years. But initially I assumed that Eb2 India would be almost current or in the worst case it would cross 2006 because of the spill over. Because I assumed and hoped very high on the spill over numbers. But in reality the spill overs also didnt make a big impact in the EB2 India movement. See the previous visa bulletins you could find that Eb2 is is in the middle of 2004 in the year of 2005 itself. Since 2005 to 2007 its there in 2004 many times.




But in 2008 and 2009 EB2 India got the maximum share of the spill over visas. But still the dates are in the first month of 2005. So hardly EB2 India moved forward about 6 months to 9 months in the duration of 2008 and 2009 with the help of spill overs. That too in this bad economy where there would be comparatively less labors applied than the previous years.

So I am expecting a steady and consistent forward movement of EB2 India but not a quick jumps of couple of years in single bulletin.
I hope it makes clear to everybody. And all we need is an EB immigration reform.

sachug22
09-15-2009, 04:25 PM
Hi ocpmachine,
But in 2008 and 2009 EB2 India got the maximum share of the spill over visas. But still the dates are in the first month of 2005. So hardly EB2 India moved forward about 6 months to 9 months in the duration of 2008 and 2009 with the help of spill overs. That too in this bad economy where there would be comparatively less labors applied than the previous years.


vdlrao,

I agree the forward movement will be slow, and i am expecting it to go pass PD of 2005 in 2010 fiscal year. In 2009 CIS has many EB2-ROW application pending, and they have processed most of them by now(in 2009). So for 2010, unless they see flood of new applications (from EB2 ROW) we will see EB2-India pass 2005 PD in 2010.

tempgc
09-15-2009, 04:39 PM
EB2 approval of LCA or 140 is almost next to impossible now. I can dare to say this.
So consider new EB2ROW is almost negligible unless the one in the 140 stage get approved from EB2ROW (here also tough for approval but I can give chance to approval) come into the queue of EB2ROW.

This is a very big assumption which impact the EB2I progress a lot.
Also EB1 movement -- new EB1 filings should come down due to economy, so I see some EB1 numbers definitely more than previous year i.e 2009 coming to EB2.

pointlesswait
09-15-2009, 04:57 PM
with everyone worried abt the economy and health reforms.. Immigration reforms are toast this year.

While we must pursue the overall reforms,

i suggest that we also seek temporary relief seeking lifting of the ban on filing for 485 for the next 2-3 months... this will help most EB3 and EB2 (I/C/) who missed the 2007 window.

What are the chances of such a relief being provided?
Will a mail campaign work?..plz raise your hand if you are interested..;)

TeddyKoochu
09-15-2009, 05:13 PM
with everyone worried abt the economy and health reforms.. Immigration reforms are toast this year.

While we must pursue the overall reforms,

i suggest that we also seek temporary relief seeking lifting of the ban on filing for 485 for the next 2-3 months... this will help most EB3 and EB2 (I/C/) who missed the 2007 window.

What are the chances of such a relief being provided?
Will a mail campaign work?..plz raise your hand if you are interested..;)

Yes this is much needed temporary relief, Iam for it if it comes by. I raise my hand!

vbkris77
09-15-2009, 05:24 PM
with everyone worried abt the economy and health reforms.. Immigration reforms are toast this year.

While we must pursue the overall reforms,

i suggest that we also seek temporary relief seeking lifting of the ban on filing for 485 for the next 2-3 months... this will help most EB3 and EB2 (I/C/) who missed the 2007 window.

What are the chances of such a relief being provided?
Will a mail campaign work?..plz raise your hand if you are interested..;)

Most lawyers think that it needs a law change. So if we are going to work with lawmakers, why not aim high and get recapture?? So in a nutshell, we will need to wait for CIR.

thomachan72
09-15-2009, 05:26 PM
with everyone worried abt the economy and health reforms.. Immigration reforms are toast this year.

While we must pursue the overall reforms,

i suggest that we also seek temporary relief seeking lifting of the ban on filing for 485 for the next 2-3 months... this will help most EB3 and EB2 (I/C/) who missed the 2007 window.

What are the chances of such a relief being provided?
Will a mail campaign work?..plz raise your hand if you are interested..;)

Good idea but could you clarify why "next 2-3 months"? what after that? Just curious why you put that time frame there

WeldonSprings
09-15-2009, 05:36 PM
Hello Sachug 22,

Where are you getting numbers for EB2 India for 2005 to be 10000, when total labor approved for 2005 were just 6133 (for all countries).

Thanks,
WeldonSprings.

2004 2000
2005 10000
2006 13000
2007(july) 5000
Here are my Estimate of pending EB2 India case for give years

<=2004 2000
2005 10000
2006 13000
2007(july) 5000
==============
Total 30000
==============

This number is very close to Ron Gocthers number prediction a few months back (minus sept approvals).

Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis - Page 6 - Immigration Information Discussion Forum (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/general-immigration-questions/8419-collaboration-on-visa-quota-data-analysis-6.html)

Pending as of 15 July 2009 145000
EB2 50000
EB3 94000
EB2India (2.4/3.5 EB2) 35714

We can use the LCA number and come close these numbers as well

2005
EB2 India LCA for 2005 = RIR (3000) + PERM (60% of 7290) ~ 7400
Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 5900
1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 13000 I-485 applicantions
Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 5% cross-charageability we get => pending 10000 pending I-485 application for 2005

2006
India PERM applications = 18000
EB2 India PERM applications (60%) = 10800
Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 8640
1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 19000 I-485 applicantions
Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 10% cross-charageability we get => pending 13000 pending I-485 application for 2006

So if we see spillover of more than 30K the date will move beyond July 2007.

nrk
09-15-2009, 05:42 PM
By seeing numbers, i am seeing a ray of hope with in one year i should hear some good news. Thanks for the R&D of all IV members


Here are my Estimate of pending EB2 India case for give years

<=2004 2000
2005 10000
2006 13000
2007(july) 5000
==============
Total 30000
==============

This number is very close to Ron Gocthers number prediction a few months back (minus sept approvals).

Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis - Page 6 - Immigration Information Discussion Forum (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/general-immigration-questions/8419-collaboration-on-visa-quota-data-analysis-6.html)

Pending as of 15 July 2009 145000
EB2 50000
EB3 94000
EB2India (2.4/3.5 EB2) 35714

We can use the LCA number and come close these numbers as well

2005
EB2 India LCA for 2005 = RIR (3000) + PERM (60% of 7290) ~ 7400
Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 5900
1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 13000 I-485 applicantions
Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 5% cross-charageability we get => pending 10000 pending I-485 application for 2005

2006
India PERM applications = 18000
EB2 India PERM applications (60%) = 10800
Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 8640
1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 19000 I-485 applicantions
Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 10% cross-charageability we get => pending 13000 pending I-485 application for 2006

So if we see spillover of more than 30K the date will move beyond July 2007.

sachug22
09-15-2009, 05:45 PM
Hello Sachug 22,

Where are you getting numbers for EB2 India for 2005 to be 10000, when total labor approved for 2005 were just 6133 (for all countries).

Thanks,
WeldonSprings.

2004 2000
2005 10000
2006 13000
2007(july) 5000

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/903759-post52.html

There where 7290 India PERM application approved for applications filed in 2005 (of this 60% where EB2 - assumption). And assuming 3000 RIR EB2 India LCA applications (pre march 2005) there are 7400 EB2 India LCA with PD of 2005. Rest of the calculation is in my post.

nrk
09-15-2009, 05:50 PM
I believe 10,000 number is from this calculation

2005
EB2 India LCA for 2005 = RIR (3000) + PERM (60% of 7290) ~ 7400
Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 5900
1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 13000 I-485 applicantions
Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 5% cross-charageability we get => pending 10000 pending I-485 application for 2005




Hello Sachug 22,

Where are you getting numbers for EB2 India for 2005 to be 10000, when total labor approved for 2005 were just 6133 (for all countries).

Thanks,
WeldonSprings.

2004 2000
2005 10000
2006 13000
2007(july) 5000

TeddyKoochu
09-15-2009, 06:09 PM
The spillover magnitude and volume really holds the key to our future, does a quarterly spillover work out better for us, does it help generate more numbers? Looks like the spillover last year was random, how do we explain the date going back to 01-JAN-2000 for sometime before bouncing back? Looks like things are on solid ground this time as unlike the previous years as we did not see a rollback of dates in the Oct bulletin.

saketh555
09-15-2009, 07:08 PM
I guess the priority dates for EB2 will hoover around 2nd Q of 2005. I came to this assumption after seeing mass approvals of 04 applications, looks like they are cleaning all 04 applications:rolleyes:.
Can't really guess EB3, not even GOD.

extra_mint
09-15-2009, 07:10 PM
There are no Spill over rules for splitting the visa's b/w I and C. Instead the Rule about spill over requires the PD (cutoff) for 2 countries to be same.

Infact if you look at any old VB (last quarter) where dates for China and India are same then that is the month for spill overs.

Cutoff for China will never advance India dates for spill overs.






There are 2.5 EB2-I application per EB2-C application. And EB2 China had cutoff dates of early 2005 in 2009 (they did not enjoy too much spillover in 2009). So my guess it that China will use its 3k annual limit + spillover numbers (depending on how much EB2-C dates move). The spillover would be split 25% china and 75% India.

sachug22
09-15-2009, 07:19 PM
Cutoff for China will never advance India dates for spill overs.

Exactly, there are more EB application from India and most of them are older PD, so with no rule, all it means is that India will get bigger share.

cbpds
09-15-2009, 07:22 PM
Even I will donate if I can just apply for I-485

Your PD will be current by Sep 2010. Or if you are lucky you may get GC by that time.

If you get GC donate to IV.

TeddyKoochu
09-15-2009, 07:26 PM
Friends what are the predictions for the coming bulletins (Maybe it’s too early). My 2 cents, Iam assuming quarterly spillover to happen in December, believe that all residual 2003 / 2004 folks will get approval in the next 2 months (I hope Iam not being too optimistic).

Nov VB - 01-MAR-2005
Dec VB - 01-JUN-2005

If we stay on stable ground i.e. the dates don't go back (Its better they move slowly then go back, seeing the dates go back is the most painful thing) then we can visualize the spillover (this is our only lifeline) better.

pointlesswait
09-15-2009, 07:26 PM
its a temp relief..not a permanent one.;)

Lets all email : uscis ombudsman office...maybe that will be a good start.

Good idea but could you clarify why "next 2-3 months"? what after that? Just curious why you put that time frame there

ksrk
09-15-2009, 07:30 PM
Exactly, there are more EB application from India and most of them are older PD, so with no rule, all it means is that India will get bigger share.

But I thought the rule stated that the spillover can only be applied to over-subscribed countries in the FOURTH quarter of the fiscal year - meaning no sooner than June/July 2010 - or am I missing something here?
How can the VB get past March 2005 in December 2009? If it does, I'll be very happy! However, I would like to know if the estimate is realistic...and not over-optimistic.

venetian
09-15-2009, 08:16 PM
Two of my friends with 2005 EB2 PERM got the 485 approval using their 2003 EB3 PD (which were struck in backlog centers).

I assume many 2005 & 2006 EB2 PERM would have done similar PD porting and would have got approvals.

brahmam
09-17-2009, 02:27 AM
Here are the authentic numbers from FLCDataCenter.com (http://flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx)

My analysis from those mdb files: (they are tricky because the data is for FY2005 while the priority date calculations we are doing are for the calendar year)

calendar year 2005 ( received date between 3/19/2005 - 12/31/2005) = 8645
year 2006 (rcv date between 1/1/2006 - 9/27/2006) = 15008

after this it gets bad since the data has no receipt date, only certified date. my estimate is around 12000 for those 3 months of 2006.(total number of certified PERMs between 10/2/2006 - 03/31/2007 = 13873)

total PERM approvals with PD between march 2005 and Dec 2006 ~ 37000

If EB2 is 50%, we are talking ~19000, with an avg of 2.5 GCs per PERM, we need 47,500 GCs between Mar 05 and Jan 07.

Good luck every one :(:D:mad:

vdlrao
09-17-2009, 03:03 AM
I got the below numbers from the PERM FDLC site for the applications filed in 2005 and approved in different years of 2005,6,7,8
2005 India 1353 (filed in 2005 and approved in 2005)
2006 India 3888 (filed in 2005 and approved in 2006)
2007 India 60 (filed in 2005 and approved in 2007)
2008 India 10 (filed in 2005 and approved in 2008)

Total 5311
5311 for both EB1-5 : So taking 50% for EB2I - 2655
GC : 2655*2.5 = 6637 ~ 6500 (considering lucky 2008 Aug-Sep approvals, 2009 Sept)
These are the right numbers for the 2005. Thanks for tempgc for doing this. And the corresponding numbers 3888, 60, 10 have to be deducted against from the years 2006, 2007 and 2008 respectively.

GC_1000Watt
09-17-2009, 03:45 AM
I am not sure about completeness and authenticity of the data, But i've found this perm data. Its Access database, where Country of chargeability is included too.

FLCDataCenter.com (http://flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx)

If everybody can search for their repective years of Labor and confirm the completeness of the data, then this will be very helpful for data crunchers. :)

I could not find my labor details on the file. BTW what does the "CERTIFIED-EXPIRED" case-status mean?

andycool
09-17-2009, 08:46 AM
Here are the authentic numbers from FLCDataCenter.com (http://flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx)

My analysis from those mdb files: (they are tricky because the data is for FY2005 while the priority date calculations we are doing are for the calendar year)

calendar year 2005 ( received date between 3/19/2005 - 12/31/2005) = 8645
year 2006 (rcv date between 1/1/2006 - 9/27/2006) = 15008

after this it gets bad since the data has no receipt date, only certified date. my estimate is around 12000 for those 3 months of 2006.(total number of certified PERMs between 10/2/2006 - 03/31/2007 = 13873)

total PERM approvals with PD between march 2005 and Dec 2006 ~ 37000

If EB2 is 50%, we are talking ~19000, with an avg of 2.5 GCs per PERM, we need 47,500 GCs between Mar 05 and Jan 07.

Good luck every one :(:D:mad:


These numbers are not correct .....

the total numbers of perm certified for india from March 2005 - March 2006 is ~ 11000 this includes all EB cases . I dont know how you got the number 37000 .

this is from FLCDataCenter.com (http://flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx)
Thanks

eb2_mumbai
09-17-2009, 09:51 AM
There are 2.5 EB2-I application per EB2-C application. And EB2 China had cutoff dates of early 2005 in 2009 (they did not enjoy too much spillover in 2009). So my guess it that China will use its 3k annual limit + spillover numbers (depending on how much EB2-C dates move). The spillover would be split 25% china and 75% India.

Do you have any data to back your claim? I beleive there are more EB2 China numbers than India. I remember seeing some data a while back where Indian EB2 & Eb3 ratio was close to 50% where as China it was 80% EB2 to 20% EB3. Which makes me think there are more EB2 china than india.

mnkaushik
09-17-2009, 10:47 AM
I know that many applied on March 05 just the week before Perm was going to start through the normal process and not RIR. I remember there was a way that they could abandon that application and apply thorugh the PERM process but keep their date. I know a friend of mine who did it. All these numbers suggested above makes sense only after we pass March 05.

Jerrome
09-17-2009, 10:53 AM
Hi this is the following # of approved PERM for India by month-wise.
Month EB (INDIA) # Approved
Jan,05 0
Feb,05 0
Mar,05 1
Apr,05 24
May,05 133
June,05 535
July,05 794
Aug,05 1313
Sep,05 1316
Oct,05 1212
Nov,05 1541
Dec,05 1771
Jan,06 1788
Feb,06 1729
Mar,06 2224
Apr,06 1635
May,06 1876
June,06 1902
July,06 1574
Aug,06 1317
Sep,06 963

Received_Date is the priority Date
- You could see there are cases approved in Year 2006 which are submitted in 2005. So you have to consider them.

As someone else already mentioned you can not calculate the #s from October 2006 onwards as there is no Received_date column in the msaccess datatabase file.

But in 2007 Access database file the approved date is last quarter of 2006 files there, so you have to assume the # of approvals based on that.

vjkypally
09-17-2009, 11:42 AM
7 pages of this and I don't think there is any clear information on how many applied betweek Jan and April-1 of 2005. I saw a post somewhere where someone said Cisco alone had about 1000 applications. Now if you add dependents to it that is almost a years quota of EB2,just from Cisco!!! I think easily there are around 5000 EB2 applicants in just that time frame. My 2 cents.

sachug22
09-17-2009, 11:57 AM
Do you have any data to back your claim? I beleive there are more EB2 China numbers than India. I remember seeing some data a while back where Indian EB2 & Eb3 ratio was close to 50% where as China it was 80% EB2 to 20% EB3. Which makes me think there are more EB2 china than india.

Read this quote from Ron Gotcher, assuming that he is getting the data from CIS sources for EB2 ratio between India/China is 2.5 : 1

Immigration Information Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/33180-post56.html)

vdlrao
09-17-2009, 12:01 PM
7 pages of this and I don't think there is any clear information on how many applied betweek Jan and April-1 of 2005. I saw a post somewhere where someone said Cisco alone had about 1000 applications. Now if you add dependents to it that is almost a years quota of EB2,just from Cisco!!! I think easily there are around 5000 EB2 applicants in just that time frame. My 2 cents.


When it took about 2 years spill over visas (2008 and 2009) for the EB2 India dates to move from April 2004 to Jan 2005, I am sure you could estimate how long it would take to cross a year.

sachug22
09-17-2009, 12:06 PM
When it took about 2 years spill over visas (2008 and 2009) for the EB2 India dates to move from April 2004 to Jan 2005, I am sure you could estimate how long it would take to cross a year.

In 2008 the spillover was distributed evenly between 2004/2005/2006. It was 2009 spillover that clean most of the cases in 2003 and 2004. As of 1st Oct there are next to nothing cases from 2003, very few from 2004.

Plus in 2008/2009 CIS had EB2-ROW applications that they can approve, this year they do not have the EB2-ROW cushion.

vbkris77
09-17-2009, 12:13 PM
When it took about 2 years spill over visas (2008 and 2009) for the EB2 India dates to move from April 2004 to Jan 2005, I am sure you could estimate how long it would take to cross a year.

On a ballpark, EB2-I has demand for about 50K immigrant visa numbers. Last year we got 25K. I am assuming we are going to get the same number this year too. So that cleared entire 2004.

Next year the situation may be different, because demand from other countries is less, So we could see a bigger leap and might put us in early 2006 by end of FY10. FY11 may not be that nice when economy starts improving. We could be back to one.

Bottomline, Without a recapture, EB2I/C will not make much progress. EB3-Worldwide is only a place holder in the very long line.

IV members need to concentrate on the recapture, filing AOS after I140 is approved, visa stamping within USA to make our life easy.

ocpmachine
09-17-2009, 12:21 PM
When it took about 2 years spill over visas (2008 and 2009) for the EB2 India dates to move from April 2004 to Jan 2005, I am sure you could estimate how long it would take to cross a year.

This is not entirely true, the spillovers in 2008 was given to PD's till mid 2006 and cases with FBI namecheck pending(PD's 2003/4/5) were not approved, so 2008 spillovers did not go fully to 2003/4/5 PD cases. However, in 2009 the spill overs go entirely to 2004 cases as FBI cleared name checks and due to pre-adjudication.

So my take is it took part of 2008 spillovers + entire 2009 spillover numbers just to clear 2004 backlog, unless we have pre-perm Jan-Mar05 numbers we really cant logically predict the EB2 movement.

Edit: oops, i see sachug22 already posted a similar reply, sorry for the duplicate post.

gc_on_demand
09-17-2009, 12:24 PM
On a ballpark, EB2-I has demand for about 50K immigrant visa numbers. Last year we got 25K. I am assuming we are going to get the same number this year too. So that cleared entire 2004.

Next year the situation may be different, because demand from other countries is less, So we could see a bigger leap and might put us in early 2006 by end of FY10. FY11 may not be that nice when economy starts improving. We could be back to one.

Bottomline, Without a recapture, EB2I/C will not make much progress. EB3-Worldwide is only a place holder in the very long line.

IV members need to concentrate on the recapture, filing AOS after I140 is approved, visa stamping within USA to make our life easy.

Only thing we can do is grassroots advocacy. Which may take few years... I don't have hope that in CIR we will be huge getting benefits ( Because of Antis and Some Dems like Senator Durbin ). Also Chances of any piecemeal is very less because of Hispanic caucus.

Only thing left is Administrative fixes. who can give us temp relief. Like Mr Bush did for TN visas.

reedandbamboo
09-17-2009, 12:48 PM
I am one of those who filed on March 28, 2005 under the older labor cert process and then converted and was approved under PERM later that year.


I know that many applied on March 05 just the week before Perm was going to start through the normal process and not RIR. I remember there was a way that they could abandon that application and apply thorugh the PERM process but keep their date. I know a friend of mine who did it. All these numbers suggested above makes sense only after we pass March 05.

MYGC2008
09-17-2009, 01:22 PM
Here is what I want to understand.

EB2 ROW is CURRENT except INDIA AND CHINA. EB2 ROW will get 28.6% of 140000.
This means 40040. How they are going to divide these visa between INDIA and CHINA?
This is NOT SpillOver. I know there is 7% rule, but other countries are always Current.

And EB1 is CURRENT and considering Bad economy very few cases will be filed under EB1.

What will happen to those 40040 Visa? If those spillover to EB2 ROW, we may see a large quantity of Visa numbers for EB2.

Considering 50% of each EB1 and EB2 visas consumed by other than INDIA AND CHINA, still we should get aroud 40040 visas this year.If you furher divide 50% between INDIA and CHINA, both will get 20020, Which might be sufficient to cross 2005.

kondur_007
09-17-2009, 01:45 PM
Here is what I want to understand.

EB2 ROW is CURRENT except INDIA AND CHINA. EB2 ROW will get 28.6% of 140000.
This means 40040. How they are going to divide these visa between INDIA and CHINA?
This is NOT SpillOver. I know there is 7% rule, but other countries are always Current.

And EB1 is CURRENT and considering Bad economy very few cases will be filed under EB1.

What will happen to those 40040 Visa? If those spillover to EB2 ROW, we may see a large quantity of Visa numbers for EB2.

Considering 50% of each EB1 and EB2 visas consumed by other than INDIA AND CHINA, still we should get aroud 40040 visas this year.If you furher divide 50% between INDIA and CHINA, both will get 20020, Which might be sufficient to cross 2005.

You are right on the point. In fact (I may be overly optimistic here), I would not be surprised at all to see PD of EB2I in 2007 or 2008 in the last quarter (Aug-Sept) and it may even see the magincal "C" in Sept 2010. (Making the dream come true for VDLRAO!!)

(Remember, with preadjudications, there are no more pending EB2-ROW (except for the new adjudications) and EB2 China has been in 2006 for quite some time as well in the past)

nrk
09-17-2009, 02:07 PM
I wish your prediction is correct, but do you think the spill over happens from the first quarter,
As per the trend, we are seeing the spill over only in the last quarter from last two years.


Here is what I want to understand.

EB2 ROW is CURRENT except INDIA AND CHINA. EB2 ROW will get 28.6% of 140000.
This means 40040. How they are going to divide these visa between INDIA and CHINA?
This is NOT SpillOver. I know there is 7% rule, but other countries are always Current.

And EB1 is CURRENT and considering Bad economy very few cases will be filed under EB1.

What will happen to those 40040 Visa? If those spillover to EB2 ROW, we may see a large quantity of Visa numbers for EB2.

Considering 50% of each EB1 and EB2 visas consumed by other than INDIA AND CHINA, still we should get aroud 40040 visas this year.If you furher divide 50% between INDIA and CHINA, both will get 20020, Which might be sufficient to cross 2005.

nrk
09-17-2009, 02:10 PM
Hi VDLRAO,

Couple of months back you were very optimistic about EB2 I will be current soon, what were the things influencing your thoughts.

Do you think EB2 I, will not be crossing 2005 by September 2010 ?

When it took about 2 years spill over visas (2008 and 2009) for the EB2 India dates to move from April 2004 to Jan 2005, I am sure you could estimate how long it would take to cross a year.

immi_seeker
09-17-2009, 02:13 PM
I wish your prediction is correct, but do you think the spill over happens from the first quarter,
As per the trend, we are seeing the spill over only in the last quarter from last two years.

Assume the spill over happens only in last quarter. Then for the first quarter EB2I will only have 3000/4 = 750 visas. This is equilent to 300 Eb2I applications. We all know that there are atleast 300 applications easily remaining in 2004 itself. If that was the case why didnt the dates retrogress in oct VB as everyone predicted?

TeddyKoochu
09-17-2009, 02:33 PM
You are right on the point. In fact (I may be overly optimistic here), I would not be surprised at all to see PD of EB2I in 2007 or 2008 in the last quarter (Aug-Sept) and it may even see the magincal "C" in Sept 2010. (Making the dream come true for VDLRAO!!)

(Remember, with preadjudications, there are no more pending EB2-ROW (except for the new adjudications) and EB2 China has been in 2006 for quite some time as well in the past)

I sincerely hope your words come true! It has been a long wait for people who missed Jul 07. Lets hear from the expert VDL Rao.

django.stone
09-17-2009, 03:18 PM
Do you have any data to back your claim? I beleive there are more EB2 China numbers than India. I remember seeing some data a while back where Indian EB2 & Eb3 ratio was close to 50% where as China it was 80% EB2 to 20% EB3. Which makes me think there are more EB2 china than india.

You need to multiply ratio with total to get absolute EB2 numbers. If China total is 100, 80% of 100 is, 80 and if India total is 1000, 60% of 1000 is 600. I think people are saying here that in absolute terms India EB2 > China EB2.

vdlrao
09-17-2009, 03:18 PM
Hi VDLRAO,

Couple of months back you were very optimistic about EB2 I will be current soon, what were the things influencing your thoughts.

Do you think EB2 I, will not be crossing 2005 by September 2010 ?


By september 2010 EB2 India will surely enters into 2006.

nrk
09-17-2009, 04:07 PM
Yeah that might be true.
Assume the spill over happens only in last quarter. Then for the first quarter EB2I will only have 3000/4 = 750 visas. This is equilent to 300 Eb2I applications. We all know that there are atleast 300 applications easily remaining in 2004 itself. If that was the case why didnt the dates retrogress in oct VB as everyone predicted?

TeddyKoochu
09-17-2009, 04:09 PM
Yeah that might be true.

The rate at which 2004 folks are getting approved that probably only 300 applications are left for pre Jan 2005. More approvals augur well for everybody.

arunmurthy
09-17-2009, 04:12 PM
Cousin of my friend got an email that his card production has been ordered.
He falls in EB3I (PD Aug. 2005). I could not believe it but my friend told me that
EB3I would see significant movement in coming months.
Gus Hang on and tighten your seat belts. We will have a wild ride if he is true.

nrk
09-17-2009, 04:12 PM
Yeah it might not come upto April or May by September 2010, but i am expecting some thing should happen for EB2 I Prior May 2006 filers by end of 2010 (December 2010)

By september 2010 EB2 India will surely enters into 2006.

nrk
09-17-2009, 04:16 PM
I wish the statement is true.

I think your friends cousin got the card by mistake, that does not mean that it will see a significant moment for EB3 I. The only possibility is if USICIS wants to recapture the unused visa numbers over a period of time, then EB2 I, EB3 I all move together.

Cousin of my friend got an email that his card production has been ordered.
He falls in EB3I (PD Aug. 2005). I could not believe it but my friend told me that
EB3I would see significant movement in coming months.
Gus Hang on and tighten your seat belts. We will have a wild ride if he is true.

arunmurthy
09-17-2009, 04:23 PM
I wish the statement is true.

I think your friends cousin got the card by mistake, that does not mean that it will see a significant moment for EB3 I. The only possibility is if USICIS wants to recapture the unused visa numbers over a period of time, then EB2 I, EB3 I all move together.

I think you are correct. Lets see how the next bulletin turns out to be.
I just pray EB3I moves to June 05.

TeddyKoochu
09-17-2009, 04:23 PM
I wish the statement is true.

I think your friends cousin got the card by mistake, that does not mean that it will see a significant moment for EB3 I. The only possibility is if USICIS wants to recapture the unused visa numbers over a period of time, then EB2 I, EB3 I all move together.

Arun thanks for sharing the news & congrats to your cousins friend, may well be one of the cases of successfully porting PD.

thomachan72
09-17-2009, 04:27 PM
[QUOTE=arunmurthy;916610]Cousin of my friend got an email that his card production has been ordered.
He falls in EB3I (PD Aug. 2005). I could not believe it but my friend told me that
EB3I would see significant movement in coming months.
Gus Hang on and tighten your seat belts. We will have a wild ride if he is true.[/QUOTE

Really?? are you sure??

vjkypally
09-17-2009, 05:00 PM
October bulletin has already moved to Jan22'2005. From other tracking sites there are not too many Feb'2005 applications. But we have plenty of March 2005 applicants. Once it crosses March it will zoom ahead to end of 2005.

But it could be September 2010 by the time it comes to March,2005.

immi_seeker
09-17-2009, 05:09 PM
October bulletin has already moved to Jan22'2005. From other tracking sites there are not too many Feb'2005 applications. But we have plenty of March 2005 applicants. Once it crosses March it will zoom ahead to end of 2005.

But it could be September 2010 by the time it comes to March,2005.

Any idea what would be the number of pre-perm applications arnd mar-2005. Will it be like in 10K numbers . Any idea?

vjkypally
09-17-2009, 05:37 PM
I do not think it would be 10,000 primary. Probably around 3000 ~ 5000 primary applications. But if you consider dependents yes we may be talking about nearly 10,000 EB2I visas.

sachug22
09-17-2009, 05:51 PM
I do not think it would be 10,000 primary. Probably around 3000 ~ 5000 primary applications. But if you consider dependents yes we may be talking about nearly 10,000 EB2I visas.

I think it is between 3000 and 3500, with depended this comes to 7500.

In 2008, 10% of these already got approved.
Some 10% may have abandon application or used other priority days (porting).
Some 5% may have used cross-chargeable

So we are looking at a number close to 5000-6000 for Jan-March 2005.

immi_seeker
09-17-2009, 06:47 PM
I think it is between 3000 and 3500, with depended this comes to 7500.

In 2008, 10% of these already got approved.
Some 10% may have abandon application or used other priority days (porting).
Some 5% may have used cross-chargeable

So we are looking at a number close to 5000-6000 for Jan-March 2005.

So assuming the worst case of 10k including applicants and another 5k for the PERM PDs in 2005, it seems if we have 15k spill over , PD will easily surpass 2005. Considering the slow economy and rare Eb filings , that spill over number could be a very possible number

vjkypally
09-18-2009, 09:44 AM
That is very true that with spill over it will cross 2005 in 2010. But we should not really expect it till Sep2010.

gc_wow
09-23-2009, 06:25 PM
I dont think there is a law which dictates spill over to happen in last quarter? Some USCIS crony has made that happen only in last quarter? Does any one know more about this?

vjkypally
09-23-2009, 06:41 PM
Like I said earlier March is the real bottleneck for year 2005. More than 3000 applications.October bulletin has already moved to Jan22'2005. From other tracking sites there are not too many Feb'2005 applications. But we have plenty of March 2005 applicants. Once it crosses March it will zoom ahead to end of 2005.

But it could be September 2010 by the time it comes to March,2005.

vjkypally
09-23-2009, 06:44 PM
Hope USCIS is counting dependents in its 10,800 count for EB2I in 2005. Then we were pretty close in our estimate.I do not think it would be 10,000 primary. Probably around 3000 ~ 5000 primary applications. But if you consider dependents yes we may be talking about nearly 10,000 EB2I visas.

MYGC2008
09-23-2009, 06:50 PM
By Looking into Data provided, INDIA EB2 should get more Visa this year.

Look at the Data for EB2 CHINA
for 2004 it is 123 and for 2005 it is 4100.

If the Cutoff Dates does not move for China/India ,How they going to use spillover visas?
This is really interesting
Since EB1 is Current and Rest all Eb2(except CHINA/INDIA) are current. This time there will be huge spillover.

srini1976
09-23-2009, 06:50 PM
Alright the numbers are out
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/2nd%20Level%20%28Left%20Nav%20Parents%29/Green%20Card%20-%202nd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I-485%20Reports.pdf

We have following EB2 numbers

<=2004 7000
2005 10800
2006 19250
2007(july) 10500
==============
Total 47,700
==============

EB2-ROW have very few applicants pending as i said in my earlier message ~7200. So CIS has to approve EB2 India/China cases to meet their approval numbers.

Thanks Sachug22.

Dec 2009 Visa Bulletin & Jan 2010 Visa Bulletin should give us clear picture about EB2 - I forward movement (if USCIS does spill over every Quarter this fiscal year - Most likely I expect the spill over to occur every Quarter this fiscal year).

Other important indicator would be the spillover received by Eb2 - I till Sep 2009. If spillover is more(clearing majority of 2004 - Jan 2005 cases) that would be the best case scenario.

Overall things look very positive.

hydboy77
09-23-2009, 07:13 PM
The only missing information to give an almost 90% accurate prediction of the visa bulletin movement are
1. Will DOS do spillover every quarter or only once every year?
2. What would be the number of eb2 and eb1 visa demand from ROW from October 2009 to September 2010?

the answer to question 2 can be obtained by getting the number of pending PERM Eb2 petitions with DOL, if we get the answer to question 1 from DOS then we can predict the visa bulletin with almost 90% + accuracy.

I don’t think DOS will do a quarter spillover. If DOS does not do a quarter spillover then it will disastrous for EB2 India because if DOL releases a ton of pending EB2 ROW perm applications they have been holding up for over an year in June-July-august 2010 time then DOS might not do a spillover at all for Eb2 India.


Thanks Sachug22.

Dec 2009 Visa Bulletin & Jan 2010 Visa Bulletin should give us clear picture about EB2 - I forward movement (if USCIS does spill over every Quarter this fiscal year - Most likely I expect the spill over to occur every Quarter this fiscal year).

Other important indicator would be the spillover received by Eb2 - I till Sep 2009. If spillover is more(clearing majority of 2004 - Jan 2005 cases) that would be the best case scenario.

Overall things look very positive.

vactorboy29
09-23-2009, 07:20 PM
All this data was generated for last quarter (End of June ).We may see improved numbers in comming updates due to spill over and current approvals for this quarter.

srini1976
09-23-2009, 07:23 PM
The only missing information to give an almost 90% accurate prediction of the visa bulletin movement are
1. Will DOS do spillover every quarter or only once every year?
2. What would be the number of eb2 and eb1 visa demand from ROW?

the answer to question 2 can be obtained by getting the number of pending PERM Eb2 petitions with DOL, if we get the answer to question 1 from DOS then we can predict the visa bulletin with almost 90% + accuracy.

I don’t think DOS will do a quarter spillover. If DOS does not do a quarter spillover then it will disastrous for EB2 India because there will be a either a repeat of August 2008 visa bulletin where they might move the visa bulletin up to 2006 or 2007 and basically they will give a visa to whoever irrespective of PD which means people with 2004 and 2005 might get left behind again while people from 2007 and 2007 might get GC or an even more disastrous situation might be that if DOL releases a ton of pending EB2 ROW perm applications they have been holding up for over an year in June-July-august 2010 time then DOS might not do a spillover at all for Eb2 India.

The key difference compared to last year is Pre-Adjudication and improved communication between DOS and USCIS.
If not all, Recent spate of approvals for EB 2 - I (based on spill over) - in first few weeks of September 2009 is itself a proof of their improved service (& Pre-Adjudication)

Most likely spill over should happen Quarterly. If not I agree with you - they can make everyone current in the last Quarter and approve irrespective of Priority Date. But its least likely to happen this year. But you never know about USCIS.

weasley
09-23-2009, 07:44 PM
I completely agree with this. USCIS has better date than prior years. PD for October is Jan 2005,the numbers available for first quarter is 750 (approx) and around 700 I485s are in Jan 2005. We will know in Dec whether quarterly spill happens or not.

The key difference compared to last year is Pre-Adjudication and improved communication between DOS and USCIS.
.

hydboy77
09-23-2009, 08:35 PM
Unfortunately we will have to wait until march and not december to find out if DOS is doing quarterly spillover because EB2 row already has more than 7000 pending 485, every quarter there are about 10000 Eb 2 visas, so technically there are already enough EB2 row 485 applications to use up the first quarter numbers.

offcourse there are only 4000 pending eb1 485 applications and assuming not more than a 1000 new eb1 applications are added to the list there would be 5000 visas that could be spilled over into eb2, the problem is we dont know
1. If DOS will do spillover every quarter
2. if by miracle they do spillover will it only in there respective categories i.e Eb2 row to to eb2 india\china, or accross categories eb1-row to Eb2 row to Eb2 India\china

These questions can only be answered by DOS. Hope DOS looks at what USCIS did and comes out with a Q&A of there own which explains if they are going to do a spillover every quarter or not. If not we will still be speculating to no end. Do we have to file another FOIA request to DOS to find out if they are going to do a spillover every quarter? I hope DOL also published a report every quarter like USCUS which contains the numnber of perm applications pending by month, year and country



I completely agree with this. USCIS has better date than prior years. PD for October is Jan 2005,the numbers available for first quarter is 750 (approx) and around 700 I485s are in Jan 2005. We will know in Dec whether quarterly spill happens or not.

same_old_guy
09-23-2009, 09:19 PM
Well, here’s some more stat : Base on GC allocation of FY 2008 (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY08-AR-TableV(Part2).pdf ),

EB1 India got 5,327 visas , EB2 India got 14,818 and EB3 India got 3,576 even though the quota was 2,803 for each preference.

As an example, I-485 pending for EB2 and EB3 India before 2006 are 17,835 and 46,334 respectively. Everything else being equal, you can take a guess how long it would take based how old the report was. Even if the report is from yesterday to be pessimistic and there are nuances, it gives some approximation unless the interpretation is totally wrong.

vdlrao
09-24-2009, 01:05 AM
By Septemebre 2010, EB3-india wll be in the mid of 2002.

WeldonSprings
09-24-2009, 01:10 AM
Hi, And just for my own and others who have a Priority date earlier than March 2006; can you tell us after looking at the today's data; when will we be current?

Thanks.

By Septemebre 2010, EB3-india wll be in the mid of 2002.

masterji
09-24-2009, 01:37 AM
By Septemebre 2010, EB3-india wll be in the mid of 2002.
Do you think EB-2 India will cross 2005 by Sept. 2010? Thanks.

santa123
09-24-2009, 01:48 AM
I am not trying to ruin this party... Let us not start our celebrations yet.
what if the EB2 & EB3 dates go backwards in Nov visa bulletin?
Should we be ready to face it too?

After all we are dealing with ****** USCIS....:rolleyes::eek::confused:

BharatPremi
09-24-2009, 03:18 AM
Based on following link:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/2nd%20Level%20%28Left%20Nav%20Parents%29/Green%20Card%20-%202nd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I-485%20Reports.pdf

28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB3-India + Spillover from EB2 and EB1, not more than 10,000 of which to "Other Workers".
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB2-India + spillover from EB1
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB1-India + spillover from EB4 and EB5


Each category is 28.6% WW Quota.

WW Quota consists of 5 country specific sub-quotas 1)India 2)China 3) Mexico 4) Philipines 5)ROW.

Based on page 1, I do math as under for Philippines categories.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 70 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1890
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1890 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11858 - pending 74 = Total
11784 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11784 =19792, Pending: 510, So total 19282 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19282 spill over =27290 - 11563 Pending = 15727 VISA extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 264 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15727-264 = 15463 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


Based on page 3, I do math as under for ROW categories.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 1378 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 582
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 40 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1920
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 582 + EB5 spillover 1920 = 10510 - pending 2477 = Total
8033 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8033 =16031, Pending: 7150, So total 8881 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8881 spill over =16889. Pending: 62840 -16889 = 45951 applications will
still be pending and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 4, I do math as under for China categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 384 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1576
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1576 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11531 - pending 607 =
Total 10924 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 10924 =18932, Pending: 19333, So total 401 applications will be pushed to
year 2011 with pending approval.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + no spillover = 8008 – 6343 Pending = 1665 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 30 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 1665-30 = 1635 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.

Based on page 5, I do math as under for India categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 123 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1960-123 = 1837
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-13 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1837 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11792 - pending 418 = Total
11374 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11374 =19382, Pending: 47728, So total 28346 applications will still be
pending for year 2011.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008, no spill over. Pending: 62607 -8008 = 54599 applications will still be pending
and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 6, I do math as under for Mexico categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 62 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-62=1898
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1898 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11866 - pending 174 =
Total 11692 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11692 =19700, Pending: 211, So total 19489 applications will spill over to
EB3 category.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19489 spillover = 27497 – 7878 Pending = 19619 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 8415 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 19619-8415 = 11204 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15463 + 1635 + 11204 = 28302.

Assuming these unused visas from Philippines, China and Mexico will be used for India, ROW equally India will benefit additional 14151 VISAS this year. Assuming all of these go to EB2 India Pushed down figure for EB2-India for the year 2011 will be 28346 – 14151 = 14195 pending EB2-I applications ready to go to year 2011.

GC_1000Watt
09-24-2009, 03:39 AM
based on your calculations it seems that
sep/oct 2010 bulletin might have Sept 2006 as priority date for EB2-I.

sroyc
09-24-2009, 05:38 AM
Please see my inline comment.

Based on following link:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/2nd%20Level%20%28Left%20Nav%20Parents%29/Green%20Card%20-%202nd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I-485%20Reports.pdf

28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB3-India + Spillover from EB2 and EB1, not more than 10,000 of which to "Other Workers".
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB2-India + spillover from EB1
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB1-India + spillover from EB4 and EB5


Each category is 28.6% WW Quota.

WW Quota consists of 5 country specific sub-quotas 1)India 2)China 3) Mexico 4) Philipines 5)ROW.

This is incorrect. ICMP get 7% of the 28.6%. ROW gets roughly 28.6% - 4 X 7% X 28.6%

Based on page 1, I do math as under for Philippines categories.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 70 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1890
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1890 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11858 - pending 74 = Total
11784 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11784 =19792, Pending: 510, So total 19282 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19282 spill over =27290 - 11563 Pending = 15727 VISA extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 264 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15727-264 = 15463 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


Based on page 3, I do math as under for ROW categories.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 1378 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 582
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 40 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1920
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 582 + EB5 spillover 1920 = 10510 - pending 2477 = Total
8033 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8033 =16031, Pending: 7150, So total 8881 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8881 spill over =16889. Pending: 62840 -16889 = 45951 applications will
still be pending and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 4, I do math as under for China categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 384 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1576
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1576 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11531 - pending 607 =
Total 10924 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 10924 =18932, Pending: 19333, So total 401 applications will be pushed to
year 2011 with pending approval.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + no spillover = 8008 – 6343 Pending = 1665 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 30 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 1665-30 = 1635 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.

Based on page 5, I do math as under for India categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 123 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1960-123 = 1837
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-13 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1837 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11792 - pending 418 = Total
11374 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11374 =19382, Pending: 47728, So total 28346 applications will still be
pending for year 2011.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008, no spill over. Pending: 62607 -8008 = 54599 applications will still be pending
and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 6, I do math as under for Mexico categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 62 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-62=1898
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1898 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11866 - pending 174 =
Total 11692 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11692 =19700, Pending: 211, So total 19489 applications will spill over to
EB3 category.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19489 spillover = 27497 – 7878 Pending = 19619 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 8415 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 19619-8415 = 11204 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15463 + 1635 + 11204 = 28302.

Assuming these unused visas from Philippines, China and Mexico will be used for India, ROW equally India will benefit additional 14151 VISAS this year. Assuming all of these go to EB2 India Pushed down figure for EB2-India for the year 2011 will be 28346 – 14151 = 14195 pending EB2-I applications ready to go to year 2011.

thakurrajiv
09-24-2009, 09:27 AM
Well, here’s some more stat : Base on GC allocation of FY 2008 (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY08-AR-TableV(Part2).pdf ),

EB1 India got 5,327 visas , EB2 India got 14,818 and EB3 India got 3,576 even though the quota was 2,803 for each preference.

As an example, I-485 pending for EB2 and EB3 India before 2006 are 17,835 and 46,334 respectively. Everything else being equal, you can take a guess how long it would take based how old the report was. Even if the report is from yesterday to be pessimistic and there are nuances, it gives some approximation unless the interpretation is totally wrong.

Thanks for posting this. Lets see how visa allocation worked for 2009. Based on 2008, things do not look as rosy. Only 14.8K visas in EB2-I. If perm speed improves then the spill overs will also reduce.
Surprising South Korea is not in oversubscribed countries. It received 7.2K EB2 visas.
I thought South Korea should have been retrogressed. Well when do we expect fairness from USCIS ? They seem to follow class system : ROW, china, other over-subscribed, India in this order !!

rockstart
09-24-2009, 10:11 AM
Has some one cross validated USCIS numbers against IV Tracker data? Till now we always assumed that tracker data was 1% of entire population. This is a good time for some data guru to tell us actually how many people (% wise) are on IV. A break-up by month (PD) might be preferable because I feel older PD people are more active than newer ones.

Jerrome
09-24-2009, 10:53 AM
I think your analysis considers EB1(ROW)+EB2(ROW) spill over to EB3(ROW) that is not true,

EB1 Overflow ---> EB2
EB2 Overflow ---> EB2(I)+EB China

That means as per your calculation, it would be 19,282 considering 0 EB1 and EB2 filled in 2010.

As i said in my previous posts EB2 would be May 2006 by end of this year for sure.
Best case scenario considering more than 30K spill over it would be end of 2006.

You are also calculating spillover as of today with the pending cases, but the spill over happens only in Last quarter of 2010. There would be some if not more EB1+EB2 ROW applicants.

Based on following link:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/2nd%20Level%20%28Left%20Nav%20Parents%29/Green%20Card%20-%202nd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I-485%20Reports.pdf

28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB3-India + Spillover from EB2 and EB1, not more than 10,000 of which to "Other Workers".
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB2-India + spillover from EB1
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB1-India + spillover from EB4 and EB5


Each category is 28.6% WW Quota.

WW Quota consists of 5 country specific sub-quotas 1)India 2)China 3) Mexico 4) Philipines 5)ROW.

Based on page 1, I do math as under for Philippines categories.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 70 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1890
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1890 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11858 - pending 74 = Total
11784 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11784 =19792, Pending: 510, So total 19282 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19282 spill over =27290 - 11563 Pending = 15727 VISA extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 264 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15727-264 = 15463 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


Based on page 3, I do math as under for ROW categories.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 1378 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 582
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 40 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1920
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 582 + EB5 spillover 1920 = 10510 - pending 2477 = Total
8033 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8033 =16031, Pending: 7150, So total 8881 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8881 spill over =16889. Pending: 62840 -16889 = 45951 applications will
still be pending and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 4, I do math as under for China categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 384 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1576
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1576 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11531 - pending 607 =
Total 10924 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 10924 =18932, Pending: 19333, So total 401 applications will be pushed to
year 2011 with pending approval.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + no spillover = 8008 – 6343 Pending = 1665 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 30 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 1665-30 = 1635 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.

Based on page 5, I do math as under for India categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 123 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1960-123 = 1837
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-13 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1837 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11792 - pending 418 = Total
11374 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11374 =19382, Pending: 47728, So total 28346 applications will still be
pending for year 2011.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008, no spill over. Pending: 62607 -8008 = 54599 applications will still be pending
and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 6, I do math as under for Mexico categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 62 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-62=1898
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1898 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11866 - pending 174 =
Total 11692 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11692 =19700, Pending: 211, So total 19489 applications will spill over to
EB3 category.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19489 spillover = 27497 – 7878 Pending = 19619 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 8415 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 19619-8415 = 11204 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15463 + 1635 + 11204 = 28302.

Assuming these unused visas from Philippines, China and Mexico will be used for India, ROW equally India will benefit additional 14151 VISAS this year. Assuming all of these go to EB2 India Pushed down figure for EB2-India for the year 2011 will be 28346 – 14151 = 14195 pending EB2-I applications ready to go to year 2011.

greenscope
09-24-2009, 11:10 AM
When can I get my gc based on these uscis data for sept 2005 eb-2.Please suggest me.

Jerrome
09-24-2009, 11:24 AM
When can I get my gc based on these uscis data for sept 2005 eb-2.Please suggest me.

100% by this time next year.

MYGC2008
09-24-2009, 11:24 AM
There won't be any spillover to EB3 unless EB2 ROW becomes current.

Based on following link:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/2nd%20Level%20%28Left%20Nav%20Parents%29/Green%20Card%20-%202nd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I-485%20Reports.pdf

28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB3-India + Spillover from EB2 and EB1, not more than 10,000 of which to "Other Workers".
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB2-India + spillover from EB1
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB1-India + spillover from EB4 and EB5


Each category is 28.6% WW Quota.

WW Quota consists of 5 country specific sub-quotas 1)India 2)China 3) Mexico 4) Philipines 5)ROW.

Based on page 1, I do math as under for Philippines categories.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 70 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1890
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1890 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11858 - pending 74 = Total
11784 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11784 =19792, Pending: 510, So total 19282 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19282 spill over =27290 - 11563 Pending = 15727 VISA extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 264 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15727-264 = 15463 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


Based on page 3, I do math as under for ROW categories.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 1378 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 582
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 40 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1920
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 582 + EB5 spillover 1920 = 10510 - pending 2477 = Total
8033 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8033 =16031, Pending: 7150, So total 8881 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8881 spill over =16889. Pending: 62840 -16889 = 45951 applications will
still be pending and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 4, I do math as under for China categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 384 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1576
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1576 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11531 - pending 607 =
Total 10924 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 10924 =18932, Pending: 19333, So total 401 applications will be pushed to
year 2011 with pending approval.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + no spillover = 8008 – 6343 Pending = 1665 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 30 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 1665-30 = 1635 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.

Based on page 5, I do math as under for India categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 123 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1960-123 = 1837
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-13 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1837 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11792 - pending 418 = Total
11374 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11374 =19382, Pending: 47728, So total 28346 applications will still be
pending for year 2011.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008, no spill over. Pending: 62607 -8008 = 54599 applications will still be pending
and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 6, I do math as under for Mexico categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 62 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-62=1898
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1898 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11866 - pending 174 =
Total 11692 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11692 =19700, Pending: 211, So total 19489 applications will spill over to
EB3 category.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19489 spillover = 27497 – 7878 Pending = 19619 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 8415 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 19619-8415 = 11204 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15463 + 1635 + 11204 = 28302.

Assuming these unused visas from Philippines, China and Mexico will be used for India, ROW equally India will benefit additional 14151 VISAS this year. Assuming all of these go to EB2 India Pushed down figure for EB2-India for the year 2011 will be 28346 – 14151 = 14195 pending EB2-I applications ready to go to year 2011.

Jerrome
09-24-2009, 11:25 AM
When can I get my gc based on these uscis data for sept 2005 eb-2.Please suggest me.

100% by this time next year if the spill over rules are not changed. If they are changed then in next 5 years.
(India upto september 2005 got almost 15K) per year india got 3500, do the math.

TeddyKoochu
09-24-2009, 11:28 AM
I believe that to maintain a steady 485 EB2-I queue the dates should advance fairly fast till maybe the end of 2007 much sooner than September. Following are the reasons, 6 months back probably there were less pre-adjudicated applications so the focus was reviewing and completing these cases, now most of the applications are pre-adjudicated and the route for steady approvals looks clear like what has happened in Sep 2009 for 2004 cases. There will be a time if the spillover happens as many have predicted then most of the cases will get approved and the pre-adjudicated applications will be less or even dry out, so in the letter and spirit I feel that the 485 pipeline should be equally populated at all steps, considering that the 485 approval process is long and has several steps. This year represents great hope for people who missed Jul 07; I guess its time for the next batch to get EAD/AP, I hope Iam not being over optimistic. Feedback and comments welcome for all.

kate123
09-24-2009, 11:35 AM
I pray for this to happen... we will atleast get EAD and can change jobs....

I believe that to maintain a steady 485 EB2-I queue the dates should advance fairly fast till maybe the end of 2007 much sooner than September. Following are the reasons, 6 months back probably there were less pre-adjudicated applications so the focus was reviewing and completing these cases, now most of the applications are pre-adjudicated and the route for steady approvals looks clear like what has happened in Sep 2009 for 2004 cases. There will be a time if the spillover happens as many have predicted then most of the cases will get approved and the pre-adjudicated applications will be less or even dry out, so in the letter and spirit I feel that the 485 pipeline should be equally populated at all steps, considering that the 485 approval process is long and has several steps. This year represents great hope for people who missed Jul 07; I guess its time for the next batch to get EAD/AP, I hope Iam not being over optimistic. Feedback and comments welcome for all.

BharatPremi
09-24-2009, 12:40 PM
Please see my inline comment.

SROYC,

Can you give me USCIS or any other authentic Doc/link which states ICMP share is 7% of 28.6% ? In years I have not found such doc. Therefore, assuming USCIS works fairly :D I had to divide 28.6% by 5 - equal share for each country within particular category.

Yes, there are many other factors we will have to factor in like incoming flow of applications, swith over count, spillover at the end of the year.

ksvreg
09-24-2009, 12:46 PM
when there were no dates in VISA BULLETIN for EB2 and EB3, how the people filed 485 in the year 2008 and 2009 under EB3 and EB2 as well?

Edison99
09-24-2009, 12:54 PM
when there were no dates in VISA BULLETIN for EB2 and EB3, how the people filed 485 in the year 2008 and 2009 under EB3 and EB2 as well?
Good Question though!

BharatPremi
09-24-2009, 01:06 PM
I think your analysis considers EB1(ROW)+EB2(ROW) spill over to EB3(ROW) that is not true,

EB1 Overflow ---> EB2
EB2 Overflow ---> EB2(I)+EB China

That means as per your calculation, it would be 19,282 considering 0 EB1 and EB2 filled in 2010.

As i said in my previous posts EB2 would be May 2006 by end of this year for sure.
Best case scenario considering more than 30K spill over it would be end of 2006.

You are also calculating spillover as of today with the pending cases, but the spill over happens only in Last quarter of 2010. There would be some if not more EB1+EB2 ROW applicants.

One thing for spillover is sure and that is it is happening at the end of a year. If we read the Visa bulletin 2 methods of spillover can be derived.

1) Spillover within preference first and then to country

Example: additional numbers of EB2- I go to EB2-M/C and after that any left ones go to
EB3 category
2) Spillover within contry first

Example: EB2-I - any extra numbers go to EB3-I and still left go to "unused" ready to be used by other oversubscribed country.

Now USCIS may be doing spillover by any of these methods or combination. I think none of us have exact proof which way USCIS does spillover.

In analysis we need to assume one or other path and that is what I did.

Yes, current new influx of applications is a major item to factor in but I was working on the data what USCIS published and it has not published current influx. Every month calculations get changed.

ksvreg
09-24-2009, 01:08 PM
Good Question though!

Worried that the data provided is inaccurate. If they provide accurate data (+/- 10%), follow the rules, then we can wait for our dates to turn in for years. But they always do math differently than any one else and move the visa bulletin dates which no one can understand how that was calculated.

pitha
09-24-2009, 01:10 PM
If USCIS and DOS were thinking logically what you said would have made sense but time and again they have proved that they act as if they are the masters of there own universe. Example South Korea had about 7000+ Eb2 visas but they are not considered retrogressed country (but that is a side matter, my point is they have there own weird logic and they dont care to disclose the logic behind there decisions.) For eb2 india forward movement to happen spillover of Visas from Eb1->eb2 row->eb2 India should happen every quarter. USCIS and DOS have given no indication what so ever that the spillover would happen every quarter, without spillover we have to wait till august\spetember 2010 for spillover. All you can do is just hope for the best. I am not sure why DOS would not disclose if spillover happens every quarter or not. With this data from USCIS they know the demand for the visas to do spillover every quarter.


I believe that to maintain a steady 485 EB2-I queue the dates should advance fairly fast till maybe the end of 2007 much sooner than September. Following are the reasons, 6 months back probably there were less pre-adjudicated applications so the focus was reviewing and completing these cases, now most of the applications are pre-adjudicated and the route for steady approvals looks clear like what has happened in Sep 2009 for 2004 cases. There will be a time if the spillover happens as many have predicted then most of the cases will get approved and the pre-adjudicated applications will be less or even dry out, so in the letter and spirit I feel that the 485 pipeline should be equally populated at all steps, considering that the 485 approval process is long and has several steps. This year represents great hope for people who missed Jul 07; I guess its time for the next batch to get EAD/AP, I hope Iam not being over optimistic. Feedback and comments welcome for all.

TeddyKoochu
09-24-2009, 01:15 PM
This analysis is really excellent, how far do you foresee the EB2-I date going this year. Is there any hope for new people to file 485 this year? People who missed Jul 07 have waited long and can wait till next Sep in the hope that we will be able to file 485 this year.

gc_on_demand
09-24-2009, 01:24 PM
This analysis is really excellent, how far do you foresee the EB2-I date going this year. Is there any hope for new people to file 485 this year? People who missed Jul 07 have waited long and can wait till next Sep in the hope that we will be able to file 485 this year.

Spill will be around 30k for Eb2 and that will clear till mid 2006. by Sep 2010. In Sep 2011 you should be able to file for 485.

there is no law that says to move date to accept new applications. If DOS makes date current and people have all data visible now will take USCIS to court for not approving cases. What I have learnt that USCIS is considering publishing rule ( Via Rule making process ) in dec 2009 to halt concurrent filling for I 140 and 485 and give chance to pre register for 485. so in Spiring of 2010 we may be able to pre file 485. which may / may not give benefit of AC 21 . EAD is always admin job so they can give out EAD and AP along with pre filling.

TeddyKoochu
09-24-2009, 01:32 PM
Spill will be around 30k for Eb2 and that will clear till mid 2006. by Sep 2010. In Sep 2011 you should be able to file for 485.

there is no law that says to move date to accept new applications. If DOS makes date current and people have all data visible now will take USCIS to court for not approving cases. What I have learnt that USCIS is considering publishing rule ( Via Rule making process ) in dec 2009 to halt concurrent filling for I 140 and 485 and give chance to pre register for 485. so in Spiring of 2010 we may be able to pre file 485. which may / may not give benefit of AC 21 . EAD is always admin job so they can give out EAD and AP along with pre filling.

I believe that pre-registering for 485 and being able to file for EAD and AP is itself a great step forward for us. How concrete is this news / information.

pitha
09-24-2009, 01:39 PM
EB2 India forward movement will happen if and only IF USCIS\DOS does Eb1-->eb2 Row-->Eb2 India \China visa spillover every quarter. There are 4050 pending eb1 485, assuming about 2000 more eb1 485 are added for the next 2 months ther will be 4000 Eb1 (10000-4050-2000) visas avialable for spillover in December 2009. If DOS does a spillover into Eb2 ROW then there would be forward movement for Eb2 India as there are only 7150 Eb2 ROW 485 pending and if 1000 more eb2 row are added for next 2 months EB2 India\china should get approximately 6000 visas [10000 -7150(pending eb2 485-1000(new eb2 485 for next 2 months) + 4000(spillover from Eb1)]. If they dont do spillover the above way then Eb2 india dates would most probably move back until August\Spetember 2010. Can we request DOS to do spilllover every quarter instead of every year because they know the demand from the USCIS report and lot of Eb2 India\ China 485 are pre adjudicated.

HopeSprings
09-24-2009, 02:41 PM
The calculation done by Bharatpremi seems to have flawed while calculating spill-over. Spill-over is first by preference and then by country. That is how till VB of August 2009, you see ROW EB1/2 was current and ROW EB3 was U and EB2I was in 2003.

Now, considering spill-over by preference first, the following could be a conservative analysis:
I am trying to see if EB2I can cross Dec 2006 by end of FY2010. So, we will consider only those cases that might be placed before EB2I PD as Dec 2006.

Consider all the pending EB(1+2+4+5) cases reported so far for ROW, China, Mexico and Phil and add it to pending EB(1+2+4+5) cases for India till end of 2006. The number is around 68000.
Assumption (the numbers for FY 2010 for cases that might be placed before an EB2I case with PD Dec 2006) -
- All EB4/5 cases till end of 2010 FY - 2000
- ROW, Mexico, Phil EB1/2 - 8000
- EB1 I/C - 1000
- The new cases from EB2C (PD Sep 2009 onwards) will not be placed before EB2I PD Dec 2006

Assuming cases cleared in the month of September - 4000 (around 7000 are eligible based on the cut-off date).

Total visa numbers required to clear off EB2 till Dec 2006 = 68000+2000+8000+1000-4000 = 75000

Visa numbers available for AOS for EB (1+2+4+5) in FY 2010:
Assuming 15% go to CP.
Total number for AOS = 119000
EB1 (28.6%) - 34034
EB2 (28.6%) - 34034
EB4 (7%) - 8330
EB5 (7%) - 8330
Total Visa numbers available for AOS for EB (1+2+4+5): 34034+34034+8330+8330 = 84728

So, total number needed to move EB2I past Dec 2006 is 75000. Total available for this cause is around 84000. If USCIS uses all the available visas, spills over only during last quarter and maintains Preference-first spillover policy, I think the visa dates will move well ahead of Dec 2006 by end of FY 2010, most likely in the following way:

Oct 2009 - Dec 2009: Jan/Feb 2005
Jan 2010 - June 2010: Mar/Apr 2005
Jul 2010 - Sep 2010: Feb/Apr 2007

sroyc
09-24-2009, 03:06 PM
Read any visa bulletin. It's in there.

SROYC,

Can you give me USCIS or any other authentic Doc/link which states ICMP share is 7% of 28.6% ? In years I have not found such doc. Therefore, assuming USCIS works fairly :D I had to divide 28.6% by 5 - equal share for each country within particular category.

Yes, there are many other factors we will have to factor in like incoming flow of applications, swith over count, spillover at the end of the year.

vdlrao
09-24-2009, 04:18 PM
Do you think EB-2 India will cross 2005 by Sept. 2010? Thanks.

EB-I will be in mid or late 2006 by Sep 2009.

BharatPremi
09-24-2009, 04:19 PM
Read any visa bulletin. It's in there.

I know you are talking about "7% country speciific limit for primary applicants" and "2% country specific dependent limit" So actually it is 9% limit - country specific together.

But question is " what is the meaning of it?"

The tables what are published in bulletin are meant for "Visa number availability".

So numbers (28.6% divided by 5 per each preference-country) are meant for USCIS to process and assign visa numbers till that limit reached.

"7% + 2%" country specific limit is meant for "Sending Greencard /Ordering Greencard".

In simplest form, EB-I will have 8008 X 3 (Without spilied over) = 24024 applications assigned Visa number this year and out of that ( 9% X 140000 = 12600) lucky ones will get their physical green cards THIS YEAR. The rest will get their physical green cards next year though their files have been assigned numbers (Pre-adjudicated.) this year.

Above mentioned explanation is the real meaning of this bullshit.

I think I have tried my best to explain the process.:)

sachug22
09-24-2009, 04:32 PM
I know you are talking about "7% country speciific limit for primary applicants" and "2% country specific dependent limit" So actually it is 9% limit - country specific together.

But question is " what is the meaning of it?"

The tables what are published in bulletin are meant for "Visa number availability".

So numbers (28.6% divided by 5 per each preference-country) are meant for USCIS to process and assign visa numbers till that limit reached.

"7% + 2%" country specific limit is meant for "Sending Greencard /Ordering Greencard".

In simplest form, EB-I will have 8008 X 3 (Without spilied over) = 24024 applications assigned Visa number this year and out of that ( 9% X 140000 = 12600) lucky ones will get their physical green cards THIS YEAR. The rest will get their physical green cards next year though their files have been assigned numbers (Pre-adjudicated.) this year.

Above mentioned explanation is the real meaning of this bullshit.

I think I have tried my best to explain the process.:)

Not sure what you are talking about. There are two rules as follows

28.8% EB visas for each category EB1/EB2/EB3 and 6.8% for EB4/EB5
7% limit for each country in EB category (India will get 9800 visa in all EB1-5 categories)

To enforce the limit each EB subcategory (EB1/EB2/EB3/EB4/EB5) enforces country cap, no more than 2822 visa for India in EB1/EB2/EB3 categories.

The limit can be extended when there are leftover visas (this is what has extended the limit for EB1/EB2/EB3 India for last few years).

gc_on_demand
09-24-2009, 04:42 PM
What if EB2 ROW person has labor approved but I 140 pending . because of C person can apply for 485 but will not consume visas.

So if DOS and USCIS decides and if USCIS loose focus from approving Eb2 ROW and EB1 case for a while and technically create no demand for them leaving more spill to Eb2 india and china that can make Eb2 india C.

Don't forget that if date is current and still USCIS keep your AOS pending some how you cannot do anything..

thomachan72
09-24-2009, 05:17 PM
EB-I will be in mid or late 2006 by Sep 2009.

You meant Sep 2010, right? we are already about to cross into October 2009

mbahunting
09-24-2009, 05:41 PM
What are the chances of someone like me with a PD of Nov 06 and who did not file 485 in 07. Will I be able to file 485 anytime soon? I am wondering how many of people like me are waiting - that may impact some of our date calculations based on the 485 numbers released by USCIS? Any insights?

BharatPremi
09-24-2009, 05:54 PM
Not sure what you are talking about. There are two rules as follows

28.6% EB visas for each category EB1/EB2/EB3 and 7.1% for EB4/EB5

Ans: These numbers are meant for "Assigning Visa numbers to applications" BUT " not to grant Visa / approve 485 / Order Physical Green card"

7% limit for each country in EB category (India will get 9800 visa in all EB1-5 categories)
+ 2% dependent limit for each country in EB category


Ans: These numbers are meant for "grant Visa / approve 485 / Order Physical Green card" BUT " not to Assign Visa numbers to applications"

To enforce the limit each EB subcategory (EB1/EB2/EB3/EB4/EB5) enforces country cap, no more than 2822 visa for India in EB1/EB2/EB3 categories.

Ans: this concept 0.07X 0.286 - It is a false concept.
The limit can be extended when there are leftover visas (this is what has extended the limit for EB1/EB2/EB3 India for last few years).

/\ my answers

Jerrome
09-24-2009, 06:40 PM
Scenario 1:

Assumptions on Visa Usage by EB1 + EB2 ROW

1) About the Volume of EB1+ ROW for this year
(Pending + 2010) Total GC Spill over
EB1 ALL 4050 + 4050 8100 21995
EB2 ROW 7871 + 7871 15742 10492 (Total of 32487)

2) This data is as of August 25 2009, So in the months of September and October approval for India and China assume overall 3000+2000 = 5000

3) I have not considered EB4+EB5 spill over because that would be a bonus and would result in 2-3 months variation.

4) Spill over is 50% between China and India
China would get (16223 spill over + 2387 regular), so china would become current
India would get (16223 spilover+2387 regular), so India would move to March 06
5) Let us say 3000 are un-approvable so they will move to June 06
Scenario 2:
If the volume of EB1+ROW for this year is 50% of pending then it would result of additional 6000 visas, India would move additional 6 months to December 2006.


Scenario 3:

If the volume of EB1+ROW for this year is 25% of pending then it would result of additional 9000 visas, India would move additional 6 months to May 2007.

I don’t think in any case they won’t move beyond May 2007 for EB2 India as they would not want to add more cases to the Backlog.


In my gut feel I think Scenario 1 has 60% possibility, 2 has 30% possibility and 3 has 10% possibility/

sachug22
09-24-2009, 06:50 PM
/\ my answers

Ans: These numbers are meant for "Assigning Visa numbers to applications" BUT " not to grant Visa / approve 485 / Order Physical Green card"

Ans: These numbers are meant for "grant Visa / approve 485 / Order Physical Green card" BUT " not to Assign Visa numbers to applications"

Ans: this concept 0.07X 0.286 - It is a false concept.



How is assigning Visa number different from issuing Physical green card (they may be two step but once you get a visa number assigned you get physical green card in few days)

Can you prove that the concept is false, this is plain interpretation of visa bulletin notes and the law.

Jerrome
09-24-2009, 07:05 PM
Spillover would be by PD so China will not get same number of EB2 numbers as India. India has many more old applications then China.

I assume they move both the countries PD to the same year/month if the spill over happens. Atleast in the past, it would be interesting to see how they move now.

Even in all the scenarios it is less likely to go in to 2007, if not beyond June 2006.

breddy2000
09-24-2009, 07:09 PM
If you see the numbers for EB2 ROW there are still 7000 visas pending.
Offcourse many are from 2007 and 2008

How is it possible?Is it not EB2 ROW and EB1 was always current?

1997 1
1998 3
1999 1
2000 11
2001 47
2002 67
2003 69
2004 219
2005 493
2006 973
2007 1,531
2008 3,473
2009 262
Grand Total 7,150



Also EB1 has the following data

1997 4
1998 1
1999 0
2000 1
2001 32
2002 57
2003 32
2004 29
2005 41
2006 135
2007 537
2008 898
2009 710
Grand Total 2,477

Does this mean this data is not accurate as of date. So if it means that all of those applications are approved as of today there are no more EB2 ROW 485 applications pending for FY 2010 apart from the recently filed in PERM stage?

breddy2000
09-24-2009, 07:23 PM
This could be due to simple processing issues :

Filling issues (the application was filled in wrong category)
REF (delayed response to RFE)
Name-check (delayed namecheck)
Other technical issues
Medical condition
Spouse of EB2 India/China where the application is filed under wrong charageblity.


If you see the number of application pending in EB2 ROW for 2007 and 2008 they are huge compared to previous years somewhere in hundereds which can mean having the above said issues. The number of applications related to the above mentioned issues cannot spike significantly in just 2007 and 2008. Either the data is old and can mean that these applications are processed and approved and we wait until the new data is posted.

You can compare this with the PERM data. PERM data has very low EB2 ROW application in a given year and hence has always remained current.

Is my assumption correct?

BharatPremi
09-24-2009, 07:35 PM
How is assigning Visa number different from issuing Physical green card (they may be two step but once you get a visa number assigned you get physical green card in few days)

Can you prove that the concept is false, this is plain interpretation of visa bulletin notes and the law.

You also know what I am stating. You already have heard the word"Pre-adjudication" which means "To assign number" based on monthly bulletin based EB table dates and then put a file on shelf to eat dust till USCIS can "approve 485" /"Send Physical greencard" based on Prority date becomes active based on "country specific limit"

If assigning number is almost equivalent to granting visa in a few days then there should not be hundreds of applicants waiting in "pre-adjudication" queue. We all know that many people have been pre-adjudicated and now they are just waiting for their physical GCs.

sachug22
09-24-2009, 07:40 PM
If you see the number of application pending in EB2 ROW for 2007 and 2008 they are huge compared to previous years somewhere in hundereds which can mean having the above said issues. The number of applications related to the above mentioned issues cannot spike significantly in just 2007 and 2008. Either the data is old and can mean that these applications are processed and approved and we wait until the new data is posted.

You can compare this with the PERM data. PERM data has very low EB2 ROW application in a given year and hence has always remained current.

Is my assumption correct?

CIS files your application until its time to process. Check the processing dates for Texas and Nebraska service center they are still in second half of 2007. So these applications are filled and waiting for the processing dates to move forward.

I am not sure if any of your application was delayed due to CIS processing delays, but if they have limited resources they have to go sequentially in order of receipt date (and at time simple approvals AP/EAD could take 4-6 months).

sachug22
09-24-2009, 07:45 PM
You also know what I am stating. You already have heard the word"Pre-adjudication" which means "To assign number" based on monthly bulletin based EB table dates and then put a file on shelf to eat dust till USCIS can "approve 485" /"Send Physical greencard" based on Prority date becomes active based on "country specific limit"

If assigning number is almost equivalent to granting visa in a few days then there should not be hundreds of applicants waiting in "pre-adjudication" queue. We all know that many people have been pre-adjudicated and now they are just waiting for their physical GCs.

The Terminology : Visa number is assigned when I-485 application is approved (given that their are visa numbers available) or at Consular post the interviewer approves your application.

If you mean assigning file number or alien number then that a different thing. Pre-approval (is like initial review which more or less check is all documents are correct and application is approve able). No visa is give to any pre-approved case.

pitha
09-25-2009, 01:20 PM
The pending perm applications are the missing piece of information to predict the visa bulletin. Is it possible to get this information from the perm database. I though the perm database was for the approved perm cases. I am sure there is some database (maybe the perm database itself) where we can figure out the pending perm cases. I will search for it, guys please all look into it aswell.

Can some one who has parsed the PERM database earlier get the count of pending PERM cases as of today (or the lasted available)?

HV000
09-25-2009, 01:58 PM
You also know what I am stating. You already have heard the word"Pre-adjudication" which means "To assign number" based on monthly bulletin based EB table dates and then put a file on shelf to eat dust till USCIS can "approve 485" /"Send Physical greencard" based on Prority date becomes active based on "country specific limit"

If assigning number is almost equivalent to granting visa in a few days then there should not be hundreds of applicants waiting in "pre-adjudication" queue. We all know that many people have been pre-adjudicated and now they are just waiting for their physical GCs.

Bharatpremi,

I don't think pre-adjudicated cases get visa numbers. These cases are just waiting for visa numbers and they get visa number when dates are current. Getting a visa number is same as an approval.

eb2_mumbai
09-25-2009, 02:27 PM
I did a quick DB search and here are my findings for 2005 & 2006 PERM data

2005 case status -certified = 6133
Prevailing wage level - level II = 2212


2006 case status certified 79782

Prevailing wage level - level II = 32283

h1techSlave
09-25-2009, 02:37 PM
A quarterly spill over is advantageous to every body in the playing field.

It is obviously good for retrogressed groups. It is even good for CIS, since they can plan their work properly and use up the visas in an orderly fashion.

So if IV can use some of its massive clout to convince DOS to do a quarterly spill over, that would be win-win for all.

Unfortunately we will have to wait until march and not december to find out if DOS is doing quarterly spillover because EB2 row already has more than 7000 pending 485, every quarter there are about 10000 Eb 2 visas, so technically there are already enough EB2 row 485 applications to use up the first quarter numbers.

offcourse there are only 4000 pending eb1 485 applications and assuming not more than a 1000 new eb1 applications are added to the list there would be 5000 visas that could be spilled over into eb2, the problem is we dont know
1. If DOS will do spillover every quarter
2. if by miracle they do spillover will it only in there respective categories i.e Eb2 row to to eb2 india\china, or accross categories eb1-row to Eb2 row to Eb2 India\china

These questions can only be answered by DOS. Hope DOS looks at what USCIS did and comes out with a Q&A of there own which explains if they are going to do a spillover every quarter or not. If not we will still be speculating to no end. Do we have to file another FOIA request to DOS to find out if they are going to do a spillover every quarter? I hope DOL also published a report every quarter like USCUS which contains the numnber of perm applications pending by month, year and country

illinois_alum
09-25-2009, 03:04 PM
You also know what I am stating. You already have heard the word"Pre-adjudication" which means "To assign number" based on monthly bulletin based EB table dates and then put a file on shelf to eat dust till USCIS can "approve 485" /"Send Physical greencard" based on Prority date becomes active based on "country specific limit"

If assigning number is almost equivalent to granting visa in a few days then there should not be hundreds of applicants waiting in "pre-adjudication" queue. We all know that many people have been pre-adjudicated and now they are just waiting for their physical GCs.

Pre-adjudication means that this particular case can be approved because everything else (Biometrics, Name-checks and all other checks/documentation) is in place - but a Visa Number is not available to approve case and issue GC

Earlier, USCIS wouldnt even touch a file and complete checks if the PD wasnt current. Now they pre-adjudicate - meaning they look at the case and determine if the case can be approved if the PD were current.....

Assigning a Visa Number is basically same as giving GC...once a visa number is assigned, all they have to do is order the production of the physical card...which happens in a few days and in another couple of weeks you actually get the card

pitha
09-25-2009, 03:16 PM
Unless IV request DOS for a quarterly spillover DOS would not do it. All the good things that happenned in the last 2 years were because of IV involvement starting with the July Fiasco when USCIS accepted 485 applications, I am sure the report published by USCIS about the pending 485 was done because of the FOIA filed by IV.

A quarterly spill over is advantageous to every body in the playing field.

It is obviously good for retrogressed groups. It is even good for CIS, since they can plan their work properly and use up the visas in an orderly fashion.

So if IV can use some of its massive clout to convince DOS to do a quarterly spill over, that would be win-win for all.

Jerrome
09-25-2009, 03:53 PM
I don't think in any year EB2ROW has got 40K GC in the past, even when the economy was in good shape.

Does anyone has links for the annual GC issuance per country/per category for 2008. I missed the link.

The worst case scenario would be 20,000 max. That means EB2(I) will move to Mid or3 rd quarter of 2006 by end of 2010.



using following report
NAFSA | Resource Library | Selected PERM Program Statistics - Jan 2009 (http://www.nafsa.org/regulatory_information.sec/regulatory_document_library.dlib/employment-based_immigration/selected_perm_program)
http://www.nafsa.org/uploadedFiles/selected_perm_program.pdf?n=2558

Using the report from 12/31/2008 (did not find a newer report)

PERM received: 20,752 (18,863 electronic; 1,889 mail-in)
PERM completed: 4,571 (3,074 certified; 1,328 denied; 169 withdrawn)
PERM pending : 53200

For next 3 quarters we assume they receive 10K applications and approve 5k each quarter we get PERM pending (53200 + 3 * 10k - 3 * 5k) = 68K pending PERM.

For this 68K, i am expecting 30% from India and 10% from China and 20% from EB3-ROW. We get 27K EB2 ROW PERM pending.

If 70% of them are approved and apply for I-485 with 1.2 dependent we get approx 40K I-485 applications in EB2-ROW.

So in case all PERM backlog is removed we will get 40K more EB2-ROW applications. Worst case scenario.

MYGC2008
09-25-2009, 04:15 PM
I agree with you EB2ROW might have not got 20K visa in the past. That may be because economy was good, lot of EB1 apps, spillover not done properly etc.

But Why not this year? economy is still not good, less EB1 apps and probably USCIS might do the right spillover. It is only hope.

I don't think in any year EB2ROW has got 40K GC in the past, even when the economy was in good shape.

Does anyone has links for the annual GC issuance per country/per category for 2008. I missed the link.

The worst case scenario would be 20,000 max. That means EB2(I) will move to Mid or3 rd quarter of 2006 by end of 2010.

GC9180
09-25-2009, 04:20 PM
monthly number calculations not quarterly or yearly

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum5-all-other-green-card-issues/628361-useful-links-how-visa-allocation-happens.html#post967308



http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/87963.pdf

from the above doc

"9 FAM APPENDIX D, 405 NUMERICAL CONTROL"

.... Each month a determination is made regarding the number of visas that can be made
available on a worldwide basis. .......
Numbers are made available in the chronological order of the applicant’s
priority dates. The monthly cut-off dates, which are used to determine
whether an applicant’s case is eligible for final interview, are published in the
Visa Bulletin available on the CA Intranet site....".

AB1275
09-25-2009, 04:51 PM
I have applied on EB2. My PD is Oct 2006. My I-140/I-485 was filed concurrantly. How long do you think is my wait?

GC_1000Watt
09-25-2009, 06:47 PM
Check out this link:
USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=9&office=4&charttype=2)

This shows the I-485 national volume on july 2009.
Seems like a long wait??

PD : Dec 2007

BharatPremi
09-25-2009, 07:05 PM
Pre-adjudication means that this particular case can be approved because everything else (Biometrics, Name-checks and all other checks/documentation) is in place - but a Visa Number is not available to approve case and issue GC

Earlier, USCIS wouldnt even touch a file and complete checks if the PD wasnt current. Now they pre-adjudicate - meaning they look at the case and determine if the case can be approved if the PD were current.....

Assigning a Visa Number is basically same as giving GC...once a visa number is assigned, all they have to do is order the production of the physical card...which happens in a few days and in another couple of weeks you actually get the card

Agree..about the clear definition of Pre-adjudication. But main question was about the accurate count of "Real pending" 485 which equals to "other pending" + "preadjudicated" + "awaiting cutomer response" + "new receipt" when you refer to USCIS's trend/volume charts.
While the other worksheet in the thread seems to be depicting the closet values to "other pending" of a trnd chart so that worksheet can not be considered authentic for a total count of "real pending" 485 cases.

InTheMoment
09-25-2009, 07:22 PM
I think you have summarized pre-adjudication quite well.

Also note that pre-adjudication is not a very recent phenomenon USCIS service centers especially NSC has been doing it since late 2005!

pri
09-25-2009, 07:56 PM
A quarterly spill over is advantageous to every body in the playing field.

It is obviously good for retrogressed groups. It is even good for CIS, since they can plan their work properly and use up the visas in an orderly fashion.

So if IV can use some of its massive clout to convince DOS to do a quarterly spill over, that would be win-win for all.

Here is the snippet from http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=966830

Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act states that if total demand for visas in an Employment preference category is insufficient to use all available visa numbers in that category in a calendar quarter, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limit.

It appears that DOS does spill-over every quarter.

BharatPremi
09-25-2009, 08:13 PM
Here is the snippet from [url]then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limit.

It appears that DOS does spill-over every quarter.

"MAY BE made" is not equal to "ARE made"

kate123
09-25-2009, 08:14 PM
Here is the link:
Visa Bulletin for July 2008 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_4252.html)

Here is the snippet from http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=966830

Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act states that if total demand for visas in an Employment preference category is insufficient to use all available visa numbers in that category in a calendar quarter, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limit.

It appears that DOS does spill-over every quarter.

h1techSlave
09-25-2009, 08:19 PM
Quarterly spill over is the only sensible option which can be done at this time. This is the only option which might be doable and which is supported by both EB2 and EB3.

Visa recapture and all the other major law changes - not much of a chance in this political climate.
Re-instating vertical spill over - welcomed by EB3; but strongly opposed by EB2.
Current spill over (horizontal) - welcomed by EB2; but strongly opposed by EB3.

Quarterly spill over: no law change required; supported by both EB2 and EB3. This is the way to go.

Unless IV request DOS for a quarterly spillover DOS would not do it. All the good things that happenned in the last 2 years were because of IV involvement starting with the July Fiasco when USCIS accepted 485 applications, I am sure the report published by USCIS about the pending 485 was done because of the FOIA filed by IV.

BharatPremi
09-25-2009, 08:45 PM
Quarterly spill over: no law change required; supported by both EB2 and EB3. This is the way to go.

Yes, it is supported by both but which group would support which method? Quarterly horizontal or quarterly vertical? :)

BharatPremi
09-25-2009, 08:46 PM
Well, somebody is saying that "preadjudication" may have a diiferent meaning too. See the following link.

Statistics of USCIS Preadjudication of EB-485 Applications and Prospects (http://pathrika.net/myknowledgebase/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=168:statistics-of-uscis-preadjudication-of-eb-485-applications-and-prospects&catid=44:immigration-law-news&Itemid=56)

bestofall
09-26-2009, 12:31 AM
""""""""""""""Holding following assumptions we will see more forward movement in coming months and whole of 2010 fiscal year.

Slow improvement in economy (fewer new applications from EB2-ROW and EB1)
PERM applications stay stuck (as they are very few approvals in last 12 months)
CIS is force to allocate visa every quarter (leading to large spill-over)
Fewer EB3 to EB2 porting

""""""""""""""

Sachu

Thanks for good analysis. I wonder about CIS allocating visa every quarter spill over.
Can you please share any resource about quarterly spill- over ?

eb2_mumbai
09-28-2009, 11:48 AM
I have a few questions of guru's on this forum.

What made USCIS change the rules of spill over from EB3 to EB2. We all know that rules changed in 2007 but I am not sure what prompted USCIS to make the change was it AILA or IV or just internal USCIS review?

The reason I ask this question is when I was looking at the EB3 thread there were lots of people especially with PD between 2001 & 2004 who feel they can start a campaign to revert this spill over decision to pre 2007 criteria. I am neither opposing them nor supporting them but I want to understand the reasons the changes were made.

At this moment I feel their appeal is more at emotional level rather than having a sound resoning. Its like we are waiting since 8 years so please assign us these spillover numbers. But I do not feel that will cut ice with CIS. We need to work for visa recapture but till this spilover thing is put to rest no one will concentrate on recapture

sumagiri
09-28-2009, 12:04 PM
I don't think in any year EB2ROW has got 40K GC in the past, even when the economy was in good shape.

Does anyone has links for the annual GC issuance per country/per category for 2008. I missed the link.

The worst case scenario would be 20,000 max. That means EB2(I) will move to Mid or3 rd quarter of 2006 by end of 2010.

Sachug22, that is very good info. Thanks for posting this and giving you green.

A minor correction though.
I read some where that the avg PERM time is now 9 months. Also, we know that the average time for GC processing (getting receipts, appointment for finger prints, name check etc) is about 3 months. And then sure there is time lag for any one between PERM and I-140/I-485. So we should exclude the PERMS filed in last quarter because by the time, those are eligible for AOS adjudication, most probably they fall in to yr 2011.

alterego
10-07-2009, 05:40 PM
Sachug22,

I can pretty much guarantee you, if there is no quarterly spillover, your projections for without quarterly spillover are way too optimistic.
Your with quarterly spillover numbers are probably closer.
Of course with the USCIS, all rules, logic and common sense goes out the window. Poor State Dept has to read them and their productivity/intentions monthly, and of course we are on the receiving end of their non sense.

rsharma
10-07-2009, 05:40 PM
I have built a very simple EB2-I Visa predition model

Making following assumption

15000 new EB2 ROW I-485 applications
12000 new EB1 I-485 applications
EB4/EB5 use 70% of allocated visa (30% spillover)


EB2 Visa Bulletin prediction for FY 2010
Bulletin Quarterly-spillover Annual Spillover
Oct-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Nov-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Dec-09 31-Mar-2005 1-Feb-2005
Jan-10 31-Mar-2005 15-Feb-2005
Feb-10 31-Mar-2005 31-Mar-2005
Mar-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Apr-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
May-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jun-10 15-Oct-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jul-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Sep-2005
Aug-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Apr-2007
Sep-10 31-Mar-2007 30-May-2007

I would be very happy if your predictions come true. But it appears you have not taken into consideration of the fact that thousands of EB3 might move over to Eb2.

sumagiri
10-07-2009, 05:47 PM
I have built a very simple EB2-I Visa predition model

Making following assumption

15000 new EB2 ROW I-485 applications
12000 new EB1 I-485 applications
EB4/EB5 use 70% of allocated visa (30% spillover)


EB2 Visa Bulletin prediction for FY 2010
Bulletin Quarterly-spillover Annual Spillover
Oct-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Nov-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Dec-09 31-Mar-2005 1-Feb-2005
Jan-10 31-Mar-2005 15-Feb-2005
Feb-10 31-Mar-2005 31-Mar-2005
Mar-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Apr-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
May-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jun-10 15-Oct-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jul-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Sep-2005
Aug-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Apr-2007
Sep-10 31-Mar-2007 30-May-2007

Sachug, it is a great attempt to compare the quarterly and annual spill overs. I made rough calculations couple of weeks ago with annual spill over. However, I assumed around 25K ROW visas(both pending and new) for EB2. And assumed only aroudn 125K for AOS keeping 15K for CP. I will compile all of my assumptions and post here. Overall, my calcs estimated EB2 move to Dec 2006. By the way, I hope you took China in to consideration for spill over.

sachug22
10-07-2009, 06:00 PM
Some additional assumption in the calculations

China gets its share of EB2 numbers (by priority date)
95% cases are approved and none are delayed
EB3 to EB2 porting and cross-changeability ignored (they counter each other)
I-485 filled in last few months will not be approved (processing delays)
DOS/CIS are efficient and follow rules.

sachug22
10-07-2009, 06:10 PM
Sachug, it is a great attempt to compare the quarterly and annual spill overs. I made rough calculations couple of weeks ago with annual spill over. However, I assumed around 25K ROW visas(both pending and new) for EB2. And assumed only aroudn 125K for AOS keeping 15K for CP. I will compile all of my assumptions and post here. Overall, my calcs estimated EB2 move to Dec 2006. By the way, I hope you took China in to consideration for spill over.

My numbers

EB1 all - 17K
EB2 ROW - 22K
EB2-I 30K
EB2-C 9K
EB3 all - 40K
EB4 all - 7K
EB5 all - 7K

CP - 8K

I am assuming zero spill over from family category and lower CP numbers (no retrogress country applicant will wait for CP and new applications are low)

meridiani.planum
10-07-2009, 06:28 PM
I have built a very simple EB2-I Visa predition model

Making following assumption

15000 new EB2 ROW I-485 applications
12000 new EB1 I-485 applications
EB4/EB5 use 70% of allocated visa (30% spillover)


EB2 Visa Bulletin prediction for FY 2010
Bulletin Quarterly-spillover Annual Spillover
Oct-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Nov-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Dec-09 31-Mar-2005 1-Feb-2005
Jan-10 31-Mar-2005 15-Feb-2005
Feb-10 31-Mar-2005 31-Mar-2005
Mar-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Apr-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
May-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jun-10 15-Oct-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jul-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Sep-2005
Aug-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Apr-2007
Sep-10 31-Mar-2007 30-May-2007


3rd Q spillover numbers are too optimistic. 2006 alone has ~20k pending EB2I. you are assuming whole of that, plus 1 quarter eachfrom 05 and 07?

proengineer
10-15-2009, 03:59 PM
Interesting statistics posted on Ron Gotcher forum

Credit to Nolefan


Hello Ron,
I have been silent spectator for long and I greatly enjoy reading this blog. The knowledge you bring is great. The blog is very informative & insightful and has given us lots of useful information. I have been thinking of contributing to this blog for sometime related to Pending visa number and spillover topic and this is my first post regarding that.

Recently, I did some calculations on EB1 & EB spillover to EB2 India/China for FY 2010. Here are points I considered

* Average Consular processing numbers for EB1 & EB2 / year are based on historic data from 1998 to 2008. (Data is available on DHS site)
* All ROW EB1 & EB2 applications from following categories will be approved before spill over happens
o consular processing (EB1 & EB2)
o ROW (EB1 & EB2) + Mexico + Philippines
* most applications for India / China EB2 from 2004 and prior are approved except few as mentioned on CIS report.
* Even if there are EB2 ROW I140 applications are pending, they may not be more than few thousands (based historic EB2 usage from EB2 ROW). Based on economic conditions, I assumed 5000 new I485 applications after approval of I140.


Calculations

EB1 spill over

Total quota allowed: 40040
Average consular processing: 5290
AOS Pending: 4050
New applications: 2500
spill over from EB1 ~ 40040 - 5290 – 4050 – 2500
spill over from EB1~ 28500

EB2 spill over

Total quota allowed: 40040
Average consular processing: 2199
AOS Pending (ROW): 7871
New applications: 2500
spill over from EB1 ~ 40040 - 2199 – 7871 – 2500
spill over from EB1~ 27470

Total EB1 & EB2 spill over = 28500 + 27470

Total EB1 & EB2 spill over = 55970


EB4 spill over
Total quota allowed: 9800
Average visa numbers used: 7432…… based on data from 1998 to 2008
spill over = 2368

EB5 spill over
Total quota allowed: 9800
Average visa numbers used: 465 …… based on data from 1998 to 2008
2008 data: 1360
spill over : 8440



Total spill over for EB2 India / China: spill over from (EB1 + EB2 + EB3 + EB4)

i.e. 28500 + 27470 + 2368 + 8440 ..

Total spill over for EB2 India / China: 66778

Preadjudicated EB2 India / China applications ~ 51000

Total pending EB2 India / China ~ 67061

If spill over occurs quarterly, then I would expect EB2 India / China dates should faster throughout year may be current by end of FY 2010.

shana04
10-15-2009, 04:11 PM
I have built a very simple EB2-I Visa predition model

Making following assumption

15000 new EB2 ROW I-485 applications
12000 new EB1 I-485 applications
EB4/EB5 use 70% of allocated visa (30% spillover)


EB2 Visa Bulletin prediction for FY 2010
Bulletin Quarterly-spillover Annual Spillover
Oct-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Nov-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Dec-09 31-Mar-2005 1-Feb-2005
Jan-10 31-Mar-2005 15-Feb-2005
Feb-10 31-Mar-2005 31-Mar-2005
Mar-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Apr-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
May-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jun-10 15-Oct-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jul-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Sep-2005
Aug-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Apr-2007
Sep-10 31-Mar-2007 30-May-2007

Amen! I wish your predictions come true.

ksvreg
10-15-2009, 04:24 PM
If spillover works, logic is simple. Pending applications ~290K. Quot available ~140k
So, in just two years, every category should be current. Lets not scratch our heads.

Please work out the data versus pending/quota/spillover. Do VISA DATES ENGINEERING. And figure out the visa dates process/workflow and put in front of DOS/USCIS to adopt. Or lobby to adopt. or rally to adopt.

Otherwise our math will always be different from DOS/USCIS math on visa dates ;)

ca_immigrant
10-15-2009, 04:35 PM
Bhagvan saab ka bhala kare...shuruvath mere se kare.... ;)

ie, May god bless all and may he start with me ;)

easy, do not yell, USCIS is not going to start with me cause of my petition with God.

smuggymba
10-15-2009, 04:37 PM
logon ke muh mein ghee shakkar:)

eastindia
10-15-2009, 04:42 PM
proengineer why did you create a new profile to post this?
Why are you marketing a lawyer?

sanjay
10-15-2009, 04:50 PM
proengineer why did you create a new profile to post this?
Why are you marketing a lawyer?

Atleast he had something to tell. He might had spent atleast half an hour or more to get these numbers.

And I think that who ever is on IV for sometime knows about Ron, Gerg, murty and OH . So what's the big deal ?

ujjwal_p
10-15-2009, 06:38 PM
If spillover works, logic is simple. Pending applications ~290K. Quot available ~140k
So, in just two years, every category should be current. Lets not scratch our heads.

Please work out the data versus pending/quota/spillover. Do VISA DATES ENGINEERING. And figure out the visa dates process/workflow and put in front of DOS/USCIS to adopt. Or lobby to adopt. or rally to adopt.

Otherwise our math will always be different from DOS/USCIS math on visa dates ;)

Easy boss. It aint that simple. You think nobody's going to be awarded gc's in the next year from EB1 and EB2 ROW? Wow. You not only need spillover but also need really low demand from EB1 and EB2 ROW through next Oct. If economy start picking up we'll be piling up on the backlog again and back to twiddling our thumbs waiting for visa bulletin every month. The only way this can be solved is through more visas or through visa recapture. If either of them doesn't happen, we are pretty much guaranteed not seeing "current" for a good 5-10 years, assuming the economy starts recovering and adding more jobs which seems like it has slowly begun. Not that simple.

shana04
10-15-2009, 07:36 PM
So, in just two years, every category should be current. Lets not scratch our heads.



I don't care about the logic but, I like what you said!;)

crazyghoda
10-16-2009, 12:38 PM
A lot of EB2 folks are getting excited about getting the spillover from EB1 and EB2 ROW but has anyone contemplated that lots of EB3 ROWs will now start at looking at porting their dates to EB2 just as most people from EB3 India are?

Boy, I sure wish I was a lawyer! If this system remains as screwed up for another 20 years, I am surely sending my kid to law school :D

rsdang1
10-16-2009, 12:42 PM
Guys,
I understand this is a simple estimate but - if and its a big if - it works then it would be a great Diwali gift for all EB2 folks and subsequently open spill over for EB3... Keep the faith...

polapragada
10-16-2009, 01:29 PM
Interesting statistics posted on Ron Gotcher forum

Credit to Nolefan


Hello Ron,
I have been silent spectator for long and I greatly enjoy reading this blog. The knowledge you bring is great. The blog is very informative & insightful and has given us lots of useful information. I have been thinking of contributing to this blog for sometime related to Pending visa number and spillover topic and this is my first post regarding that.

Recently, I did some calculations on EB1 & EB spillover to EB2 India/China for FY 2010. Here are points I considered

* Average Consular processing numbers for EB1 & EB2 / year are based on historic data from 1998 to 2008. (Data is available on DHS site)
* All ROW EB1 & EB2 applications from following categories will be approved before spill over happens
o consular processing (EB1 & EB2)
o ROW (EB1 & EB2) + Mexico + Philippines
* most applications for India / China EB2 from 2004 and prior are approved except few as mentioned on CIS report.
* Even if there are EB2 ROW I140 applications are pending, they may not be more than few thousands (based historic EB2 usage from EB2 ROW). Based on economic conditions, I assumed 5000 new I485 applications after approval of I140.


Calculations

EB1 spill over

Total quota allowed: 40040
Average consular processing: 5290
AOS Pending: 4050
New applications: 2500
spill over from EB1 ~ 40040 - 5290 – 4050 – 2500
spill over from EB1~ 28500

EB2 spill over

Total quota allowed: 40040
Average consular processing: 2199
AOS Pending (ROW): 7871
New applications: 2500
spill over from EB1 ~ 40040 - 2199 – 7871 – 2500
spill over from EB1~ 27470

Total EB1 & EB2 spill over = 28500 + 27470

Total EB1 & EB2 spill over = 55970


EB4 spill over
Total quota allowed: 9800
Average visa numbers used: 7432…… based on data from 1998 to 2008
spill over = 2368

EB5 spill over
Total quota allowed: 9800
Average visa numbers used: 465 …… based on data from 1998 to 2008
2008 data: 1360
spill over : 8440



Total spill over for EB2 India / China: spill over from (EB1 + EB2 + EB3 + EB4)

i.e. 28500 + 27470 + 2368 + 8440 ..

Total spill over for EB2 India / China: 66778

Preadjudicated EB2 India / China applications ~ 51000

Total pending EB2 India / China ~ 67061

If spill over occurs quarterly, then I would expect EB2 India / China dates should faster throughout year may be current by end of FY 2010.


Too good to believe..I hope it would go correct:D
And one more PRO factor is that EB1 are under high scruitny so less EB1s so high spillovers than ever before..

crazyghoda
10-16-2009, 02:59 PM
Some moron gave me a Red for my post below with the comment ".."

Seriously dude, if you are so naive as to think that ROW folks are just going sit around and watch EB2 India consume the spillover numbers, then get your head examined or stop smoking that pipe. Have you ever wondered how low the participation is from ROW applicants on these forums? This is simply because for the most part its become a desi forum mostly dominated by EB2 folks.

Or you can give me another red and stick your head back in the sand (...or in those clouds, whatever the case may be)

A lot of EB2 folks are getting excited about getting the spillover from EB1 and EB2 ROW but has anyone contemplated that lots of EB3 ROWs will now start at looking at porting their dates to EB2 just as most people from EB3 India are?

Boy, I sure wish I was a lawyer! If this system remains as screwed up for another 20 years, I am surely sending my kid to law school :D

ujjwal_p
10-16-2009, 04:27 PM
I don't care about the logic but, I like what you said!;)

Now that's a customer I want. Someone who can take no logic and all fluff. jk :)

ashshef
10-21-2009, 02:55 PM
Looking at approval data, i see EB2-India approvals continuing with many recent approvals from Jan 2005. Leading me to believe that most of the application current will be approved by Nov 2009 and we should see +ve movement in EB2-India date to March 2005 in Dec 2009 Bulletin.

I'd be surprised to see that much movement before the Jan bulletin. If they do a quarterly spillover, I am hoping they'll move it to March at least.
Been working on H1 since mid-2000. Getting more and more anxious as the dates draw closer.

kaarmaa
10-21-2009, 03:08 PM
I'd be surprised to see that much movement before the Jan bulletin. If they do a quarterly spillover, I am hoping they'll move it to March at least.
Been working on H1 since mid-2000. Getting more and more anxious as the dates draw closer.


I hear ya.

IMO, the dates need not be 'current', they should be not more than 2 years back. For e.g, right now, the PD should be Oct-2007.
Oh no, I dream too much :cool:

nrk
10-21-2009, 03:48 PM
Did you missed out the year 2006 or You expect the annual spillover happens in August and Septemeber 2010 bulletins so that they will move more than one year for EB2

I have built a very simple EB2-I Visa predition model

Making following assumption

15000 new EB2 ROW I-485 applications
12000 new EB1 I-485 applications
EB4/EB5 use 70% of allocated visa (30% spillover)


EB2 Visa Bulletin prediction for FY 2010
Bulletin Quarterly-spillover Annual Spillover
Oct-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Nov-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Dec-09 31-Mar-2005 1-Feb-2005
Jan-10 31-Mar-2005 15-Feb-2005
Feb-10 31-Mar-2005 31-Mar-2005
Mar-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Apr-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
May-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jun-10 15-Oct-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jul-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Sep-2005
Aug-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Apr-2007
Sep-10 31-Mar-2007 30-May-2007

chi_shark
10-28-2009, 04:06 PM
i am curious... if someone leaves a comment with a red or a green dot, how do i get to see the comment?

Some moron gave me a Red for my post below with the comment ".."

Seriously dude, if you are so naive as to think that ROW folks are just going sit around and watch EB2 India consume the spillover numbers, then get your head examined or stop smoking that pipe. Have you ever wondered how low the participation is from ROW applicants on these forums? This is simply because for the most part its become a desi forum mostly dominated by EB2 folks.

Or you can give me another red and stick your head back in the sand (...or in those clouds, whatever the case may be)

va_dude
10-28-2009, 04:08 PM
Use the tooltip.

Hover the mouse over the red dot and see the comment pop-up as a tool-tip.

chi_shark
10-28-2009, 04:10 PM
when i do that, it just says I have a splendid aura or some shit like that.
Use the tooltip.

Hover the mouse over the red dot and see the comment pop-up as a tool-tip.

WeldonSprings
10-28-2009, 11:55 PM
Hello sachug22,

I wanted your opinion on another critical item and this is on pending I-140 (all EBs). If, one looks at the newly created USCIS dashboard; it shows that there are 16000 outstanding I-140s with 4000 new per month. How could 4000 new I-140s be filed in August 2009. How will this affect the EB-2 India spillover?

Can you please check the dashboard and throw some light on this. I am a little worried about this.

Thanks,
WeldonSprings.

These are two scenarios one with and one without quarterly spillover. If the spillover is annually (second case) the dates will jump in july-sept 2010. If spillover is quarterly we will see jump each quarter (last month).

geevikram
11-10-2009, 12:41 AM
I would love to see how close is Sachug with his predictions once Dec bulletin comes through..

unseenguy
01-09-2010, 03:44 PM
Hello Gurus,

My priority date is Aug 11 , 2006(EB2) and my 6 year H1B ends Sept 2011. Is there any chance the priority dates will move to Aug 2006 levels in FY2010? Or in FY2011? I am really worried because these days people are getting rejections for H1 renewals. When my time comes for renewal I want to have the EAD as a backup in case H1 renewal gets rejected.

Please let me know your thoughts on movement to Aug 2006 before Sept 2011.

Thanks.

Why are you so worried? Dont be scared, make enough money and dont make silly financial decision. You can take your kitty back if push comes to shove. Economies in India and China are booming and you wont die hungry. I guarantee you that.

bestin
01-10-2010, 08:11 AM
Dont worry dude.my pd is eb2 Jul07 and my L1 expired in Dec.My company applied for my H1 in sep 09 and it was approved in 3 weeks without RFE. Some of my friends in consulting got RFEs for renewal but was eventually approved atleast until the date of contract.

Hello Gurus,

My priority date is Aug 11 , 2006(EB2) and my 6 year H1B ends Sept 2011. Is there any chance the priority dates will move to Aug 2006 levels in FY2010? Or in FY2011? I am really worried because these days people are getting rejections for H1 renewals. When my time comes for renewal I want to have the EAD as a backup in case H1 renewal gets rejected.

Please let me know your thoughts on movement to Aug 2006 before Sept 2011.

Thanks.

sachug22
06-11-2010, 10:22 AM
I guess my 9 months old prediction is coming true (off by a month).

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/1049939-post209.html

I have built a very simple EB2-I Visa predition model

Making following assumption

15000 new EB2 ROW I-485 applications
12000 new EB1 I-485 applications
EB4/EB5 use 70% of allocated visa (30% spillover)


EB2 Visa Bulletin prediction for FY 2010
Bulletin Quarterly-spillover Annual Spillover
Oct-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Nov-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Dec-09 31-Mar-2005 1-Feb-2005
Jan-10 31-Mar-2005 15-Feb-2005
Feb-10 31-Mar-2005 31-Mar-2005
Mar-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Apr-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
May-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jun-10 15-Oct-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jul-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Sep-2005
Aug-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Apr-2007
Sep-10 31-Mar-2007 30-May-2007

gcgoingon
06-14-2010, 06:33 PM
I guess my 9 months old prediction is coming true (off by a month).

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/1049939-post209.html

I hope your predictions for the coming months also come true..

I do not know why the bulletin is so conservative about the EB2-I estimates for the year 2010 (March/April 2006)?

The reason I am saying this is the initial estimate they gave for EB2-I in Jan '10 bulletin is Feb/March 2005.

geevikram
06-14-2010, 06:45 PM
I guess my 9 months old prediction is coming true (off by a month).

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/1049939-post209.html

Sachug22,
While I would love for your prediction to be true for the remaining three bulletins, I highly doubt that days will move past 2006, let alone may 07. Let us wait for 2 more months to see where you are.

Good effort though.

-V

India_USA
06-15-2010, 11:13 AM
Predicting visa bulletins is a futile effort. We should find a constructive way of passing our time that will actually bring about some changes.
Just my thoughts......

chi_shark
06-15-2010, 11:21 AM
but sachu22g seems to be on the money for the most part! kudos to that simple model. the only date that is not realistic is the May 2007 for sep 2010. rest all are on the money! nice!
Sachug22,
While I would love for your prediction to be true for the remaining three bulletins, I highly doubt that days will move past 2006, let alone may 07. Let us wait for 2 more months to see where you are.

Good effort though.

-V