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binadh
07-05-2007, 11:20 AM
Hey Gurus,

What are the chances for ROW-EB2 to go backlog in OCT 2007. My wife's employer is filing for the LABOR this month. We are keeping our finger's crossed that it will be current in OCT this year.

What do you guys think about that? Thanks.

Lasantha
07-05-2007, 11:45 AM
Hey Gurus,

What are the chances for ROW-EB2 to go backlog in OCT 2007. My wife's employer is filing for the LABOR this month. We are keeping our finger's crossed that it will be current in OCT this year.

What do you guys think about that? Thanks.

I am no guru BUT ....
It was current for more than the past two years, wasn't it. I think it is highly unlikely that it will be backlogged. If if it will, it could be by a very short period, 6 months maybe. This is what I think.

What do you think about EB3 ROW ?

franklin
07-05-2007, 12:04 PM
EB2 ROW has never retrogressed.

It can become unavailable when 140k visas are used for the year

binadh
07-05-2007, 12:13 PM
This means that this time it has become unavailable because total number of visas have been used. However, when it resets on OCT 1st, it SHOULD be available. This is what I am hoping for...... We'll see. Any other thoughts?

EB2 ROW has never retrogressed.

It can become unavailable when 140k visas are used for the year

techbuyer77
07-05-2007, 12:40 PM
What About Eb3 Row?

Lasantha
07-05-2007, 02:11 PM
I guess you mistook my statement... what I said was, where did they get enough EB2-ROW to approve and so fast that they used up all the visas earmarked for EB2-ROW... Its unavailability now that will cause a backlog and thus retorgression after october...

in other words, if demand is higher than supply there will be a demand side backlog and this backlog occurs due to more demand than supply and thus unavailability of the "commodity"... this "unsatisfied demand" or "backlog" will then cause retrogression...

my question was, where did so much EB2-ROW demand come from when in reality with country quotas and EB2-ROW being current all along there NEVER was a extrodinary demand and a pending backlog in this cat. to begin with...

yes, I never looked at it that way.

swo
07-05-2007, 02:40 PM
My guess is EB2 will return to current and EB3 will be retrogressed anything from 2002 to 2005. I doubt it will be any more current than that.

It's impossible to know. It depends how many applications were ready for approval by the time October hits.

franklin
07-05-2007, 02:40 PM
I guess you mistook my statement... what I said was, where did they get enough EB2-ROW to approve and so fast that they used up all the visas earmarked for EB2-ROW... Its unavailability now that will cause a backlog and thus retorgression after october...

in other words, if demand is higher than supply there will be a demand side backlog and this backlog occurs due to more demand than supply and thus unavailability of the "commodity"... this "unsatisfied demand" or "backlog" will then cause retrogression...

my question was, where did so much EB2-ROW demand come from when in reality with country quotas and EB2-ROW being current all along there NEVER was a extrodinary demand and a pending backlog in this cat. to begin with...

No, I didn't misunderstand your statement at all. EB2 Row didn't have a massive demand. EB3 ROW did.

So to answer your question - How can EB2 ROW go Unavailable? It is very simple. All the visas were distributed for the year, all the ROW ones (recently) went to EB3 ROW. It doesn't make a jot of a difference whether they were distributed to EB2 ROW (and probably weren't, since as I mentioned, it was never Retrogressed, and therefore never in demand or never a problem)

You seem to be misunderstanding my (albeit brief) statement. Technically, the numbers available for ROW are much greater (7% x roughly 250 countries). The mere fact that there has been retrogression in EB3 ROW for years shows that demand. It doesn't matter what EB2 ROW has done.

When the visa numbers are done, they are done. If there are spare visas in the ROW category, they trickle down to EB3. If there are no bottlenecks at EB1 or EB2, the supply is greater than demand and EB3 benefits.

There is easily enough demand from ROW all categories combined to make up the difference.
This is assuming, of course, that the 7% country limits were observed.

btw - my guess is that EB2 will become current again, and EB3 will go back to May date (aug 03)

alisa
07-05-2007, 02:50 PM
The other thing I don't understand is how come EB-1 and EB-2 which are current (for ROW) atleast can suddenly become U.
Did USCIS stop paying attention to EB-2 vs EB-3 classification?
How about country limits? Did USCIS give India more than 3K visas?
Also, aren't the visas released quarterly? So, how come the visas that were to be released in July, got consumed in June?

franklin
07-05-2007, 03:49 PM
The other thing I don't understand is how come EB-1 and EB-2 which are current (for ROW) atleast can suddenly become U. See my reasoning above. It doesn't matter, the visa numbers were used up. EB3 ROW gobbled up the ROW quotient when retrogression was eased in May and June
Did USCIS stop paying attention to EB-2 vs EB-3 classification? If you are talking about ROW, it doesn't matter. There were no backlogs in processing EB2
How about country limits? Did USCIS give India more than 3K visas? I'd imagine so 7% of 140k is 9800
Also, aren't the visas released quarterly? So, how come the visas that were to be released in July, got consumed in June? Now that is a good question
See answers in purple