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akilaakka
12-10-2009, 04:31 PM
Please see link below

Visa Bulletin for January 2010 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_4597.html)

Abhinaym
12-10-2009, 04:37 PM
Was that expected?

aadimanav
12-10-2009, 04:37 PM
Source:
Visa Bulletin for January 2010 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_4597.html)

WILL THERE BE ANY ADDITIONAL CUT-OFF DATES FOR FOREIGN STATES IN THE EMPLOYMENT FIRST OR SECOND PREFERENCE CATEGORIES?

At this time it is unlikely that there will be any cut-off dates in the Employment First preferences. It also appears unlikely that it will be necessary to establish a cut-off date other than those already in effect for the Second preference category. Cut-off dates apply to the China and India Second preference categories due to heavy demand, and each has the potential to become "unavailable" should demand cause the annual limit for that category to be reached.

INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand will be insufficient to use all available numbers in a particular employment preference category in a calendar quarter, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. For example, if it is determined that based on the level of demand being received at that time there would be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment Second preference category, then numbers could be provided to oversubscribed countries without regard to per-country limitations. Should that occur, the same cut-off date would be applied to each country, since numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of chargeability. In this instance, greater number use by one country would indicate a higher rate of demand by applicants from that country with earlier priority dates.

Should Section 202(a)(5) be applied, the rate of number use in the Employment preference category would continue to be monitored to determine whether subsequent adjustments are needed in visa availability for oversubscribed countries. This action provides the best possible assurance that all available Employment preference numbers will be used, while still ensuring that numbers remain available for applicants from all other countries that have not yet reached their per-country limit.

WHAT ARE THE PROJECTIONS FOR CUT-OFF DATE MOVEMENT IN THE EMPLOYMENT PREFERENCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF FY-2010?

Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off dates which will be reached by the end of FY-2010 are as follows:

Employment Second:
China: July through October 2005
India: February through early March 2005


If Section 202(a)(5)were to apply:
China and India: October through December 2005

Employment Third:

Worldwide: April through August 2005
China: June through September 2003
India: January through February 2002
Mexico: January through June 2004
Philippines: April through August 2005


Please be advised that the above date ranges are only estimates which are subject to fluctuations in demand during the coming months. The actual future cut-off dates cannot be guaranteed, and it is possible that some annual limits could be reached prior to the end of the fiscal year.

sparky_jones
12-10-2009, 04:42 PM
This bulletin seems to have a more-detailed-than-usual write-up on PD movement and projections. It'll be interesting to see how ppl interpret the comments from Dept of State regarding projections.

krish2005
12-10-2009, 04:45 PM
Its hurting to see that no major movements in jan bulletin. :mad:

Sad story continues. Only EB3 moved by 1 month surprisingly.

There is a chance that during this year, EB2 might become unavailable too.

ashshef
12-10-2009, 04:50 PM
Everywhere they mention spillover...they say quarterly. But they don't really enforce it. :mad:

At least , they improved the bulletin by adding more detailed information as well as an explanation about how it works.

kevinkris
12-10-2009, 04:54 PM
Guys,

When USCIS will release the report which shows number of pending apps per country and overall. With that we can see how many numbers per category and per country are used.

Is it now or in Jan?

cinqsit
12-10-2009, 04:55 PM
Yes the bulletin is pretty detailed. Explaining logic behind per country limit and movement of cutoff dates. Certainly a first in a Visa Bulletin.

Needless to say, CIR with provisions to address this backlog is the only hope for both i REITERATE - BOTH EB2 as well as EB3... divisiveness will certainly lead to failure or atleast a never ending wait for some of us....

cinqsit

forgerator
12-10-2009, 04:58 PM
this is great news for EB3 ROW!


Employment Third:

Worldwide: April through August 2005
China: June through September 2003
India: January through February 2002
Mexico: January through June 2004
Philippines: April through August 2005

gcformeornot
12-10-2009, 04:59 PM
DOS/USCIS has nothing else to do.... they are also joining our PREDICTION games......:D:D:D:D:D:D

skynet2500
12-10-2009, 05:06 PM
When am I going to get my gift card? I predicted it right. :)

pappu
12-10-2009, 05:06 PM
Good they have seem to have read recently published IV analysis and recommendations and provided a much more detailed bulletin this month for the community.

vinzak
12-10-2009, 05:09 PM
Source:
Visa Bulletin for January 2010 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_4597.html)

Should Section 202(a)(5) be applied, the rate of number use in the Employment preference category would continue to be monitored to determine whether subsequent adjustments are needed in visa availability for oversubscribed countries. This action provides the best possible assurance that all available Employment preference numbers will be used, while still ensuring that numbers remain available for applicants from all other countries that have not yet reached their per-country limit.


Does this mean that spill over is not "quarterly" as we've been discussing, but rather at the discretion of DOS as to when they will spill over?

While the added text as explanation in the bulletin is appreciated, it really doesn't clarify anything for me, so somebody please explain!!!

kartikiran
12-10-2009, 05:11 PM
Good they have seem to have read recently published IV analysis and recommendations and provided a much more detailed bulletin this month for the community.

agreed. kudos to IV core to push for more detailed explanations without which proposals for fixing this backlog also becomes difficult.

breddy2000
12-10-2009, 05:14 PM
Should Section 202(a)(5) be applied, the rate of number use in the Employment preference category would continue to be monitored to determine whether subsequent adjustments are needed in visa availability for oversubscribed countries. This action provides the best possible assurance that all available Employment preference numbers will be used, while still ensuring that numbers remain available for applicants from all other countries that have not yet reached their per-country limit.

WHAT ARE THE PROJECTIONS FOR CUT-OFF DATE MOVEMENT IN THE EMPLOYMENT PREFERENCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF FY-2010?

Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off dates which will be reached by the end of FY-2010 are as follows:

Employment Second:
China: July through October 2005
India: February through early March 2005


If Section 202(a)(5)were to apply:
China and India: October through December 2005


It clearly states that "IF Section 202(a) were to apply(spillover rule) then the dates move as mentioned above. That means that it did not happen until now...

Question is since the section 202(a) is part of the law , does it state that they need to utilize this section 202(a) quarterly or at USCIS/DOS own descretion.

McLuvin
12-10-2009, 05:16 PM
Nothing new at all in this bulletin....

we have company !!!! - They are Projecting and we use to Predict :)

We need not start threads like... Predict Jan 2010 Bulletin and win 50$... these guys are doing the prediction/projection for us...

I thought we were the only bunch of loosers... :D

BR

vbkris77
12-10-2009, 05:17 PM
HOW IS THE PER-COUNTRY LIMIT CALCULATED?

Section 201 of the INA sets an annual minimum Family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000, while the worldwide annual level for Employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 sets the per-country limit for preference immigrants at 7% of the total annual Family-sponsored and Employment-based preference limits, i.e. a minimum of 25,620.

- The annual per-country limitation of 7% is a cap, meaning visa issuances to any single country may not exceed this figure. This limitation is not a quota to which any particular country is entitled, however. The per-country limitation serves to avoid monopolization of virtually all the visa numbers by applicants from only a few countries.

- INA Section 202(a)(5), added by the American Competitiveness Act in the 21st Century (AC21), removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available. In recent years, the application of Section 202(a)(5)has occasionally allowed countries such as China-mainland born and India to utilize large amounts of Employment First and Second preference numbers which would have otherwise gone unused.

WHAT ARE THE PROJECTIONS FOR CUT-OFF DATE MOVEMENT IN THE FAMILY PREFERENCES?

Cut-off date movement in most categories continues to be greater than might ordinarily be expected, and this is anticipated to continue for at least the next few months. This is because fewer applicants are proceeding with final action on their cases at consular posts abroad, and the volume of CIS adjustment cases remains low. Once large numbers of applicants begin to have their cases brought to final action, cut-off date movements will necessarily slow or stop. Moreover, in some categories cut-off date retrogression is a possibility. Therefore, readers should be aware that the recent rate of cut-off date advances will not continue indefinitely, but it is not possible to say at present how soon they will end.

WHY DID MOST EMPLOYMENT CUT-OFFS REMAIN UNCHANGED IN RECENT MONTHS?

Many of the categories were "unavailable" at the end of FY-2009, which resulted in excessive demand being received during October and November. Coupled with the fact that CIS Offices have been doing an excellent job of processing cases, this has had an impact on cut-off date movements. Some forward movement has begun for January as we enter the second quarter of the fiscal year.


In my view CIS is not processing the applications fast enough to be using the benefits of INA Section 202(a)(5). We need to understand reasons behind this. Per the official bulletin, it is clear that if CIS can process them fast enough, we could see a movement of EB2 till end of the 2005. How many times should CIS pre-adjudicate before actually approving the EB AOS applications?

State made a good start to give an explanation for these dates. But they still didn't consider DOL application volume and CIS processing bottlenecks in processing AOS cases. IV needs to ask CIS on processing capacities of AOS applications. If they can't process them fast enough, They need to open up the AC-140 process for India (it is available only for Bombay) centers to get the cases approved by state department in a much faster way.

kondur_007
12-10-2009, 05:20 PM
Does this mean that spill over is not "quarterly" as we've been discussing

Yes, that's is correct. and they clarified (once more) that "when spill over occurs, PD of oversubscribed countries will move together".
For example, if EB2 India and China has different PDs, spillover is not occuring.

Additionally, it looks like demand in Eb1 is high enough that spill over may not be big, and so even with spill over, EB2 PD will not cross 2005. (they are saying indirectly that dont hold the hopes for big jump in the last quarter this year....)

USCIS seems to be working very efficiently and has a good grasp on the number of applications now (at least it seems...). All that extra staff they hired for July 2007 fiasco is working now and there is not much new filing. System will stay efficient until the time comes for them to handle 12 million undocumented after the CIR.

ravise
12-10-2009, 05:30 PM
till now we have not seen such detailed explanation in visa bulliten. Some thing to be feel good about.

Regarding EB2 spillover; i think their main problem with quarterly spillover is to move both EB2I and EB2C to the same priority date. If the spillover quantity is so less.

From one of the privious pdf from USCS number of EB2I applicants between between 22JAN05 and 01MAY05 were nearly 4K. I don't think there can ever be 4000 splillovers to EB2 in a single quarter. Remember spillover from EB1 to EB2 can only happen during the year end and quarterly spillover only includes intra catogiry.

all personal analysis/openion.

forgerator
12-10-2009, 05:35 PM
Kudos to USCIS though for keeping themselves employed. They have made such a mess of what could be a simple immigration planning process, by introducing layers upon layers of groupings, arbitrary allocation number limits and what not. A similar but perhaps even more complicated rocket science mess exists in another govt entity - the IRS.

gc_on_demand
12-10-2009, 05:38 PM
HOW IS THE PER-COUNTRY LIMIT CALCULATED?

Section 201 of the INA sets an annual minimum Family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000, while the worldwide annual level for Employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 sets the per-country limit for preference immigrants at 7% of the total annual Family-sponsored and Employment-based preference limits, i.e. a minimum of 25,620.

- The annual per-country limitation of 7% is a cap, meaning visa issuances to any single country may not exceed this figure. This limitation is not a quota to which any particular country is entitled, however. The per-country limitation serves to avoid monopolization of virtually all the visa numbers by applicants from only a few countries.

- INA Section 202(a)(5), added by the American Competitiveness Act in the 21st Century (AC21), removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available. In recent years, the application of Section 202(a)(5)has occasionally allowed countries such as China-mainland born and India to utilize large amounts of Employment First and Second preference numbers which would have otherwise gone unused.

WHAT ARE THE PROJECTIONS FOR CUT-OFF DATE MOVEMENT IN THE FAMILY PREFERENCES?

Cut-off date movement in most categories continues to be greater than might ordinarily be expected, and this is anticipated to continue for at least the next few months. This is because fewer applicants are proceeding with final action on their cases at consular posts abroad, and the volume of CIS adjustment cases remains low. Once large numbers of applicants begin to have their cases brought to final action, cut-off date movements will necessarily slow or stop. Moreover, in some categories cut-off date retrogression is a possibility. Therefore, readers should be aware that the recent rate of cut-off date advances will not continue indefinitely, but it is not possible to say at present how soon they will end.

WHY DID MOST EMPLOYMENT CUT-OFFS REMAIN UNCHANGED IN RECENT MONTHS?

Many of the categories were "unavailable" at the end of FY-2009, which resulted in excessive demand being received during October and November. Coupled with the fact that CIS Offices have been doing an excellent job of processing cases, this has had an impact on cut-off date movements. Some forward movement has begun for January as we enter the second quarter of the fiscal year.


In my view CIS is not processing the applications fast enough to be using the benefits of INA Section 202(a)(5). We need to understand reasons behind this. Per the official bulletin, it is clear that if CIS can process them fast enough, we could see a movement of EB2 till end of the 2005. How many times should CIS pre-adjudicate before actually approving the EB AOS applications?

State made a good start to give an explanation for these dates. But they still didn't consider DOL application volume and CIS processing bottlenecks in processing AOS cases. IV needs to ask CIS on processing capacities of AOS applications. If they can't process them fast enough, They need to open up the AC-140 process for India (it is available only for Bombay) centers to get the cases approved by state department in a much faster way.

In Jan 2010 DOL will publish their data and that will make thing very clear. I think DOS is assuming around 10 -15 k Spill over visas that can be available to Eb2 India ( based on previous years ) and that is what it take them into Oct - Dec 2005 range. They don't factor in CIS processing time. But I think from pool of 40-50k pre adjudicated apps CIS can easily consume 10k visas. But if there are less labors and more spill over visas ( like 30 -40 k) then be ready for mini version of july fiasco.

Almond
12-10-2009, 05:45 PM
Ugh, I want to cry right about now. :o

kartikiran
12-10-2009, 05:59 PM
Ugh, I want to cry right about now. :o

I am with you Almond. After waiting for 12 long years in USA and 8 long years for a GC, the tunnel is still dark.

Abhinaym
12-10-2009, 06:06 PM
I am with you Almond. After waiting for 12 long years in USA and 8 long years for a GC, the tunnel is still dark.

Indians who missed the 07 season don't have the tunnel itself in sight...

forgerator
12-10-2009, 06:06 PM
I am with you Almond. After waiting for 12 long years in USA and 8 long years for a GC, the tunnel is still dark.

Same here. Been in the States since 1998. They should give honorary GCs just for completing 10 legal years of being in this country. :mad:

TeddyKoochu
12-10-2009, 06:13 PM
Indians who missed the 07 season don't have the tunnel itself in sight...

I second that, the VB and predictions are shattering for us.

TeddyKoochu
12-10-2009, 06:16 PM
In Jan 2010 DOL will publish their data and that will make thing very clear. I think DOS is assuming around 10 -15 k Spill over visas that can be available to Eb2 India ( based on previous years ) and that is what it take them into Oct - Dec 2005 range. They don't factor in CIS processing time. But I think from pool of 40-50k pre adjudicated apps CIS can easily consume 10k visas. But if there are less labors and more spill over visas ( like 30 -40 k) then be ready for mini version of july fiasco.

Appreciate your optimism; I hope your predictions for the season end are correct. We have nothing but hope, letís not lose it.

anyluck?
12-10-2009, 06:58 PM
Biggest mistake or unlucky whoever missed July 07 fiasco.

vbkris77
12-10-2009, 07:34 PM
Biggest mistake or unlucky whoever missed July 07 fiasco.

Probably both!!! It ain't gonna happen again unless CIR passes or DoS changes their strategy.

gcgoingon
12-10-2009, 07:45 PM
We are one of those unluckiest ones; I changed my company 2 months before July fiasco and (EB2 PD Aug 23, '06) and never got a chance again to file I-485.

It is very frustrating (to say the least) to wait and it seems it may take another ~2 years to file I-485. It is hard on my wife in particular as she completed her masters in 2008 and narrowly lost jobs offers because companies do not wanted to H1b transfer these days.

I do not see any hope of this agony end anytime soon :(

Leo07
12-10-2009, 07:46 PM
I want to shout very loud....but, I'm in office....so I can only shout here... AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHA .... Just took a breath .. Shouting continues... ... AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH H so is our life:)

anyluck?
12-10-2009, 07:48 PM
I was single at that july 07 fiasco, now repenting.wife cannot work. no tunnel, no light.

supers789
12-10-2009, 07:54 PM
I left old job 10 months before July 07. But attorney at new employer did mistake with advertisement, and PERM got rejected. Applied again, and USCIS audited all Fragomen cases, so mine stuck there attorney being Fragomen. By then July 07 was gone. In Sept 08 again my PD (Nov 05) was current but I was stuck with Audit.... Finally I got PERM approved, 140 approved, but since then NOV 05 is far far away....

hibworker
12-10-2009, 07:57 PM
I was single at that july 07 fiasco, now repenting.wife cannot work. no tunnel, no light.

What are you repenting? That you were not married in July 07 ... well that's not your 'sin' or is it?

anyluck?
12-10-2009, 08:00 PM
Repenting that i miised the chance, and should have applied at that time.

willIWill
12-10-2009, 08:12 PM
Repenting that i miised the chance, and should have applied at that time.
Even if you had applied then when single, no difference my friend.
One still needs to retain the H1 so their dependants could have the H4. So, until the dates open up again there is no end in sight for the other benefits such as EAD etc.

If it is any solace, you actually did not miss the boat!

TeddyKoochu
12-10-2009, 08:20 PM
What are you repenting? That you were not married in July 07 ... well that's not your 'sin' or is it?

Friend agree with what you say, but the pain for Jul 07 Misser's is the maximum (Or atleast one of the worst) in the group. I just happened to miss the windfall because my labor was approved couple of months later. For individuals in our group being able to file for 485 is itself equivalent to getting GC as it enables us to get EAD & AP for self and family, if you ask us we don't mind paying the fee. We don’t know when we will reach the Toll Plaza for the 485 tunnel, or where it is right now or how far are we! Every year is part of hoping till the very end, only our optimism lives on.

anyluck?
12-10-2009, 08:27 PM
@TeddyKoochu

You are right. Good my reply getting some more replies :)

red200
12-10-2009, 08:27 PM
I missed the july fiasco by 15 days. Atleast if we get the administrative fix to apply atleast 485. That would help us a lot, after labor if we are allowed to apply for 485 within a specific timeframe it would be nice.

TeddyKoochu
12-10-2009, 08:28 PM
I left old job 10 months before July 07. But attorney at new employer did mistake with advertisement, and PERM got rejected. Applied again, and USCIS audited all Fragomen cases, so mine stuck there attorney being Fragomen. By then July 07 was gone. In Sept 08 again my PD (Nov 05) was current but I was stuck with Audit.... Finally I got PERM approved, 140 approved, but since then NOV 05 is far far away....

I think with a little luck you may cross the line this year, it maybe a close shave or a diving effort, all the best and best wishes. Maybe 2010 is the year for you.

red200
12-10-2009, 08:31 PM
IV can you please shed the light on this. EAD is a step closer Greencard. One will eventually get one. Even when some one is waiting on EAD he/she almost have all the benefits of GC except to renew each time

hibworker
12-10-2009, 08:40 PM
Even if you had applied then when single, no difference my friend.
One still needs to retain the H1 so their dependants could have the H4. So, until the dates open up again there is no end in sight for the other benefits such as EAD etc.

If it is any solace, you actually did not miss the boat!

I agree. I applied for I-485 and was single at that time. Now I am married and still on H1-B. Nothing has changed for me (as far as immigration is concerned. ;-) )

alterego
12-10-2009, 09:36 PM
It looks like they have heard from IV members about the spillover rules and their clarification about the QUARTERLY spillover is useful. Also them categorically stating that any spillover visas would be used in strict order of PD is reassuring. Whether they actually practice or not, it is good that they have gone on record as saying that is the way it should be.
In the past spillover was not applied in the way they are saying and EB2I suffered greatly for it.
This spillover rules if enforced will accelerate EE2I movement initially and then EB3. I suspect that by this summer EB2I folks from 2007 should be seeing some action.

GC9180
12-10-2009, 10:06 PM
In Jan 2010 DOL will publish their data and that will make thing very clear. I think DOS is assuming around 10 -15 k Spill over visas that can be available to Eb2 India ( based on previous years ) and that is what it take them into Oct - Dec 2005 range. They don't factor in CIS processing time. But I think from pool of 40-50k pre adjudicated apps CIS can easily consume 10k visas. But if there are less labors and more spill over visas ( like 30 -40 k) then be ready for mini version of july fiasco.

If they are saying if spillover is used they would ensure eb2 I & C would have same PD dates. Since eb2 C is may 05 and for eb2 I to reach that date ( may 05) it would need at least 4k spillover visas...i think till then they would not a lot any spill over visas (1st 4k) to eb2 c .. and from that date onwards the spill over visas would be shared between I & C.

k3GC
12-10-2009, 10:21 PM
If i have to interpret that - once EB2I and EB2C start having the same priority dates thats when spillover has started happening, then past years records show the following

In 2009 - this was first evident in the Jul 09 Bulletin
In 2008 - this was first evident in the Apr 08 Bulletin
In 2007 - This was evident in the fiasco bulletin of Jul 07

I dont think quarterly spillovers ever happen, Jan to Apr 2010 is going to see slow progress in dates as per their projections. May 2010 bulletin may show some changes.

Unless ofcourse Magic happens :D

NH123
12-10-2009, 10:39 PM
Friend agree with what you say, but the pain for Jul 07 Misser's is the maximum (Or atleast one of the worst) in the group. I just happened to miss the windfall because my labor was approved couple of months later. For individuals in our group being able to file for 485 is itself equivalent to getting GC as it enables us to get EAD & AP for self and family, if you ask us we don't mind paying the fee. We donít know when we will reach the Toll Plaza for the 485 tunnel, or where it is right now or how far are we! Every year is part of hoping till the very end, only our optimism lives on.

I share your pain buddy.I also miss the July 2007 fiasco by 1 month due to my &^@#$% lawyer who took 1 year to apply for labor and kept me in dark .The most painful thing is to see my wife's frustration who inspite of job offers can't join becoz company does not want to sponsor.Just being optimistic is the only hope.

pappu
12-11-2009, 01:16 AM
It looks like they have heard from IV members about the spillover rules and their clarification about the QUARTERLY spillover is useful. Also them categorically stating that any spillover visas would be used in strict order of PD is reassuring. Whether they actually practice or not, it is good that they have gone on record as saying that is the way it should be.
In the past spillover was not applied in the way they are saying and EB2I suffered greatly for it.
This spillover rules if enforced will accelerate EE2I movement initially and then EB3. I suspect that by this summer EB2I folks from 2007 should be seeing some action.

I agree. It was interesting to see them use our style of predicting with and without spillover. It seems they have paid attention to the recent report we had published. We should continue to ask questions and provide suggestions to the administration officials.

newbie2020
12-11-2009, 09:17 AM
Looks like they are changing the spillover rules again from Horizontal to Vertical this is bad news for EB2 I

kartikiran
12-11-2009, 09:35 AM
Looks like they are changing the spillover rules again from Horizontal to Vertical this is bad news for EB2 I

Because the spillover projection is given only for EB2(China and India). This is due to fact that only EB2-Row is current due to which there is a possbility of spillover which flows to China and India and not to EB3-Row(if it was vertical).

pointlesswait
12-11-2009, 10:25 AM
There are so many who missed the July 07...

we should try to seek temporary relief..allowing to file for 485 even without PD veing current.


CIR will happen when it has to happen..maybe after the health bill ...but IV not doing anything else while waiting for it is sad....


I left old job 10 months before July 07. But attorney at new employer did mistake with advertisement, and PERM got rejected. Applied again, and USCIS audited all Fragomen cases, so mine stuck there attorney being Fragomen. By then July 07 was gone. In Sept 08 again my PD (Nov 05) was current but I was stuck with Audit.... Finally I got PERM approved, 140 approved, but since then NOV 05 is far far away....

TeddyKoochu
12-11-2009, 11:51 AM
I share your pain buddy.I also miss the July 2007 fiasco by 1 month due to my &^@#$% lawyer who took 1 year to apply for labor and kept me in dark .The most painful thing is to see my wife's frustration who inspite of job offers can't join becoz company does not want to sponsor.Just being optimistic is the only hope.

Does anybody have any updates on the I485 Pre--Filing new procedure, that last I read was that this has got postponed to June (USCIS half yearly agenda). This is the only raft and lifeboat for us in the deep sea!

TeddyKoochu
12-11-2009, 11:58 AM
I share your pain buddy.I also miss the July 2007 fiasco by 1 month due to my &^@#$% lawyer who took 1 year to apply for labor and kept me in dark .The most painful thing is to see my wife's frustration who inspite of job offers can't join becoz company does not want to sponsor.Just being optimistic is the only hope.

My pain is similar to yours buddy mine also took 6 months to file. The VB is now an monthly sadness event, even my wife is waiting for EAD, in the current time its almost impossible to get a job if one needs sponsorship read H1, despite being well qualified and having work experience. Also if we have EAD you probably would not have to go through H1B Extension (RFE's), I had to undergo this as well, fortunately my stamping was smooth. Until our day comes we just have to wait, I think the only chance is the new proposed 485 filing procedure when its implemented.

TeddyKoochu
12-11-2009, 12:14 PM
There are so many who missed the July 07...

we should try to seek temporary relief..allowing to file for 485 even without PD veing current.


CIR will happen when it has to happen..maybe after the health bill ...but IV not doing anything else while waiting for it is sad....

Second that! I hope something happens, is there any information as to when the pre-filing for I485 will be implemented.

u.misc
12-11-2009, 12:49 PM
Looks like they are changing the spillover rules again from Horizontal to Vertical this is bad news for EB2 I

Pardon my ignorance.... Can you enlighten me as how Vertical and Horizontal spillover works ? What exactly happens in Vertical spillover and how is it different from horizontal.

meridiani.planum
12-11-2009, 02:00 PM
for the first time (in 5 years that I have been tracking them) the visa bulletin looks like it was "made in America". The america of old, the one that is so organized that every official form includes an estimated time on how long it takes to fill it up. The one where every street has a clear name marker, every intersection has multiple stop lights, multiple signs. Where the little cats-eyes on the road are color coded[1] Where lines form automagically when a bunch of people converge on anything. Where you can go to any .gov site and pick up whatever statistics you want on anything from agriculture, to factories, to healthcare.
This is a nation built on documentation and organization.

For the first time the visa bulletin does not look like some discarded bingo card or four monkeys getting excited on a typewriter. For the first time the numbers make sense, they explain why they are what they are. They even put our prediction threads out of business by coming out with their own set of predictions for the rest of the year.

USCIS has had data like this for eons (how many cases pending in which category and from which country). It took the usual american obsession with data and organizing data to come out with all this.

Kudos to them.

Things remain bleak, but just to see something so neatly organized and put out was heartening to me.

P.S: and no, this is not them just doing their job. Their job is to put out the dates every month (like they have been doing for atleast over a decade). To clearly spell out how many cases are pending (like their recent report), and now to predict how these dates will move, is IMO going beyond the minimum requirements of the job, and is much appreciated.

[1]: blue meaning a firehydrant, yellow as a separator of lanes in different directions, white in the same direction, red is dont enter. found the meaning of the blue one recently, and was impressed. atleast in CA this is what they are.

meridiani.planum
12-11-2009, 02:04 PM
Pardon my ignorance.... Can you enlighten me as how Vertical and Horizontal spillover works ? What exactly happens in Vertical spillover and how is it different from horizontal.

horizonal is unused visa's from a category flow down to other categories this way:

EB2 ROW -> EB2India + EB2China -> EB3 ROW -> EB3 I+C, or

EB2 ROW -> EB2India + EB2China -> EB3 (ROW+I+C)

there is some controversity about the last one, some people believe it flows through EB3 ROW and comes down, others say EB3 is all treated equal. Based on data in the past (the fact that EB3 India got tens of thousnads of approvals in 05 and 06 even though EB3-ROW was retrogressed, means its mostly the latter (EB3 (ROW+I+C))

vertical is:
EB2 ROW -> EB3 ROW -> EB2India+EB2China -> EB3India+EB3China

ivar
12-11-2009, 03:12 PM
There could be lots of folks who missed July 07 fiasco. For the people who were able to file during July 07 that EAD is working as good as green card for now.. wish we could. Here is my case if that makes you feel little better that there are lots of people who missed the boat, I Had approved labor with PD Mar 06 and I-140 and i changed my Job in Mar 07 because of issues with desi company. I never imagined that dates will become current in just three months.. :mad:

Now i am still waiting for my labor.. I recently got three years H1b extension. This extension seems like green card to me :o


I share your pain buddy.I also miss the July 2007 fiasco by 1 month due to my &^@#$% lawyer who took 1 year to apply for labor and kept me in dark .The most painful thing is to see my wife's frustration who inspite of job offers can't join becoz company does not want to sponsor.Just being optimistic is the only hope.

permfiling
12-11-2009, 04:07 PM
There could be lots of folks who missed July 07 fiasco. For the people who were able to file during July 07 that EAD is working as good as green card for now.. wish we could. Here is my case if that makes you feel little better that there are lots of people who missed the boat, I Had approved labor with PD Mar 06 and I-140 and i changed my Job in Mar 07 because of issues with desi company. I never imagined that dates will become current in just three months.. :mad:

Now i am still waiting for my labor.. I recently got three years H1b extension. This extension seems like green card to me :o

IVAR,
I am in the same boat as well. I have my PERM pending and it is forever now with the PERM delays.

globaldesi
12-11-2009, 04:16 PM
Can we check with CIS if they plan to pursue this option (pre-485 step)?

Is there a plan to start a campaign for this? I would be willing to contribute (monetary and effort) if there's such a plan...

I can see there are a lot of folks who would welcome such a plan.

cbpds
12-11-2009, 04:30 PM
Hi Pappu and IV seniors,

I will contribute to IV generously(monetory and otherwise) if you help us with the prefiling of EAD for approved 140's, atleast USCIS will get money from us every year and it helps us too.
We dont mind standing last in the queue for another 10 years as long as we have EAD.

HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Can we check with CIS if they plan to pursue this option (pre-485 step)?

Is there a plan to start a campaign for this? I would be willing to contribute (monetary and effort) if there's such a plan...

I can see there are a lot of folks who would welcome such a plan.

red200
12-11-2009, 04:37 PM
Hi Pappu and IV seniors,

I will contribute to IV generously(monetory and otherwise) if you help us with the prefiling of EAD for approved 140's, atleast USCIS will get money from us every year and it helps us too ...................


Yes if this is one of IV's agenda . I will contribute as generously as possible

supers789
12-11-2009, 04:41 PM
I need something which removes employer dependency with approved i140 until u file 485.

I hate working at the same employer just becasue my PD is not current. And by the time my PD becomes current, may be employer is not doing good, I am not happy at the job.... and I have to start from PERM again at new employer. Also if employer revokes i140, I loose the PD as well!!

greenisgood
12-11-2009, 04:58 PM
We all are in the same boat. I hate doing the same things that I am doing since last 9 years.... Need to move on ... Hey but wait.. your PD is not current..! Duh..

Willing to contribute big time if IV can make this part of its agenda.

csreddy329
12-11-2009, 05:08 PM
After I-140 approval if we are allowed to file 485 that will give us big relief, Willing to contribute big time if IV can make this part of its agenda

skgs2000
12-11-2009, 05:10 PM
Hi Pappu and IV seniors,

I will contribute to IV generously(monetory and otherwise) if you help us with the filing of EAD/I-485 for approved 140's. Please do some magic so that it happens.

gcmadhu
12-11-2009, 05:24 PM
Hi Pappu & IV Core,

Please consider prefilling I-485 option in case if it is not already in one of the IV agenda items. This will give big relief for the folks who missed July2007. I am willing to contribute big time for this.

godspeed
12-11-2009, 05:25 PM
Folks,

IV is working to address issues that affect us now/sooner or later, please contribute as and when possible without waiting for any specific agenda to be picked up.

Help IV to help you

red200
12-11-2009, 05:47 PM
Folks,

IV is working to address issues that affect us now/sooner or later, please contribute as and when possible without waiting for any specific agenda to be picked up.

Help IV to help you


Thanks to IV for that ..

But the word "later" seems to be very distant, not just for us. but for the dependents too
I believe this is administrative fix at least pre filing . This is more acheivable

gc_on_demand
12-11-2009, 06:06 PM
Administration may not want to add that right now. I had poll long back to find out many of us are interested into it . Only few replied , with limited resources we cannot achieve any thing.

IV core had same and similar job , AC21 on agenda for this year's agenda. FOIA was small side project at that time.

Now coming to main point ... We see so many news that CIR is coming in early 2010. Administration may not want to add pre registration at that time when CIR passes and all dates become C for 2- 3 years. Then this pre registration will not help as long as you have labor approved. Whole admin fix is based on rule making process and that takes near to 6 months. Also new forms and new memo to all CIS dis offices. Way too for CIS my friend. They can be only on track with new process after year.

If we could have done that last year then it might be helpful. Even I recently did some research and found that Pre registration process that those lawyers talks to attract us is for H1B. CIS wants to implement for H1B and then try out for other non immi worker category and then for Green card applicants. I bet you we will get GC by then.

So we can contribute to IV and have IV to work on our stuff. Removal of country cap , STEM , Recapture etc.. That should easy line for all of us ( EB2 and EB3 )

letstalklc
12-11-2009, 06:09 PM
My pain is similar to yours buddy mine also took 6 months to file. The VB is now an monthly sadness event, even my wife is waiting for EAD, in the current time its almost impossible to get a job if one needs sponsorship read H1, despite being well qualified and having work experience. Also if we have EAD you probably would not have to go through H1B Extension (RFE's), I had to undergo this as well, fortunately my stamping was smooth. Until our day comes we just have to wait, I think the only chance is the new proposed 485 filing procedure when its implemented.

Mee too.

but the proposed 2 tier system has been pushed from this december to next June 2010 (i.e 6 months) as of now, not sure whether they will come up with it at least in June...

Lot of people are waiting to file their final step....They should start allowing to file 485 at least one year after based on their work load and based on their pre adjudication....

skgs2000
12-11-2009, 06:20 PM
2 tier filing as of now does not allow EAD. it is only to pre adjudicate cases for i-485. Also, it opens a whole bunch of other problems. please read related (old) thread to it on this site.

If as part of 2 tier filing, EAD is allowed, i am all for it. So, we are only asking to get EAD/I-485 filing as soon as I-140 is approved.

geevikram
12-11-2009, 06:39 PM
Guys,
You all want something from IV and will contribute only if that something is being pursued. I would look at it other way, IV has no money on its own, so if you do not contribute there is very little IV can do for you. so first contribute and then let us have a discussion on what needs to be done.

-V

skgs2000
12-11-2009, 06:43 PM
Thanks for your advise on paying to IV. We posted our way of thinking!

a1b2c3
12-11-2009, 10:47 PM
for the first time (in 5 years that I have been tracking them) the visa bulletin looks like it was "made in America". The america of old, the one that is so organized that every official form includes an estimated time on how long it takes to fill it up. The one where every street has a clear name marker, every intersection has multiple stop lights, multiple signs. Where the little cats-eyes on the road are color coded[1] Where lines form automagically when a bunch of people converge on anything. Where you can go to any .gov site and pick up whatever statistics you want on anything from agriculture, to factories, to healthcare.
This is a nation built on documentation and organization.

For the first time the visa bulletin does not look like some discarded bingo card or four monkeys getting excited on a typewriter. For the first time the numbers make sense, they explain why they are what they are. They even put our prediction threads out of business by coming out with their own set of predictions for the rest of the year.

USCIS has had data like this for eons (how many cases pending in which category and from which country). It took the usual american obsession with data and organizing data to come out with all this.

Kudos to them.

Things remain bleak, but just to see something so neatly organized and put out was heartening to me.

P.S: and no, this is not them just doing their job. Their job is to put out the dates every month (like they have been doing for atleast over a decade). To clearly spell out how many cases are pending (like their recent report), and now to predict how these dates will move, is IMO going beyond the minimum requirements of the job, and is much appreciated.

[1]: blue meaning a firehydrant, yellow as a separator of lanes in different directions, white in the same direction, red is dont enter. found the meaning of the blue one recently, and was impressed. atleast in CA this is what they are.

Nice observations.

geevikram
12-12-2009, 03:44 AM
Thanks for your advise on paying to IV. We posted our way of thinking!

And to accomplish your way of thinking IV NEEDS DONATIONS. Not just for your smaller goals but for the overall good.

gchopes
12-12-2009, 06:10 PM
the visa bulletin song for EB2/3 I...yeh jo des hai tera..pardes hain tera...

arnab221
12-12-2009, 06:49 PM
What are the chances for the PD moving to Mid 2007 by end of 2010 ? :(

krupa
12-12-2009, 09:57 PM
Everywhere they mention spillover...they say quarterly. But they don't really enforce it. :mad:

At least , they improved the bulletin by adding more detailed information as well as an explanation about how it works.

USCIS issue GC not more than 9% of quota for eligible quota by each country during each first three quarters. Spill over happens only in last quarter of a fiscal year.

meridiani.planum
12-14-2009, 12:41 AM
What are the chances for the PD moving to Mid 2007 by end of 2010 ? :(

are you referring to EB2-India? Without any legislative or administrative changes the chances of reaching 2007 next year are pretty much zero IMO.

If I were to play the prediction game, based on the stats that USCIS released and their own statements in this months VB, this is what I would guess [Q1 meaning Jan-Feb-March: calendar quarter, not USCIS quarter which runs from Sept]:

- Q1 2010 : EB2-I reaches Feb and or early March

>> Reasoning: its already at Jan-end and there are tons of cases in March. because PERM was about to start from April 2005, lots and lots of companies pushed and filed for labor in March. So Jan will be crossed and most likely Feb also. But March is a big hump to cross.

- Q2 2010 : EB2-I goes "unavailable". Probably in May, or in June

>> EB2-India should exhaust its annual quota for the quarter well within the cases from Jan/Feb/early-March. So now the VB would go unavailable.

- Q3 2010 : EB2-I goes to April/May/June-2005 in July, then Dec 2005 by Sept VB.

>> the big spillover of visa starts. Note that spillover has not yet happened. THere is speculation at this point, but traditionally whenever there is spillover (look at last 3 years VB) India and China have the same PD because thats how the visas can spill over equally to both of them. The state dept's own prediction is dates will reach December and thats likely. Note that in their prediction (in the VB) dates for India and China are identical as is expected when spillover takes place. This is the time when the big bump of cases at March should get levelled out.

- Q4 2010 : EB2-I goes to Oct 2005

>> 6 months past PERM the number of filings had picked up again, so based on the EB-I pending cases stats come October 2010 the date should roll back to October 2005. Spillover wont be in effect and India will be back to its annual 7% limit.

- Q1 2011 : EB2-I goes to Dec 2005

>> dates will creep along slowly/

- Q2 2011 : Dec-2005 or 'U'.

>> same story: India quickly exhausts its annual quota, and must now wait for spillover.

- Q3 2011 : EB2-I goes to March/June 2006

>> spillover happens, but unlike earlier there are lots and lots of cases from 2005-end to first half of 2006. So even with spillover the dates are unlikely to go past June 2006.

drirshad
12-14-2009, 06:24 AM
Even if the date move to Sept 05 by last quater of 2010 how many application will they process.

The Oh Law Firm (http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html)

12/12/2009: Additional Information on State Department EB Visa Number for FY 2010 Predictions as to Timeline

* AILA reports that the State Department official discussed some of the EB visa number predictions in November before the January 2010 Visa Bulletin was released. The information is very much coincide with the Visa Bulletin. However, the information gives prediction of visa number progression timelines for various EB visa categories.

The timeline predictions appear to be:

o Worldwide EB-3: The cut-off date was predicted to start to move forward in January or February 2010.

o India EB-3: There were 58,000 applications pending for the FY 2010 and it predicted that numbers would move forward up to 5 weeks altogether for the entire FY 2010.

o India and China EB-2: State Department predicted that annual limits would reach no later than May 2010, but because of the anticipated otherwise unused 2nd preference visa numbers, the cut-off dates may progress to October-December 2005. It is a promising information which was not made available in the Visa Bulletin. But prediction is a prediction and people will have to wait and see.

* Considering the terrible EB-3 prediction for Indians, the EB-3 prediction for worldwide is considered more or less promising.

12/11/2009: Congressman Gutierrez of IL Announces His Schedule to Introduce CIR Bill on 12/15/2009

* The bill will be titled Comprehensive Immigration Reform for America's Security and Prosperity Act of 2009 (CIR ASAP). Please stay tuned.

rajenk
12-14-2009, 03:35 PM
I need something which removes employer dependency with approved i140 until u file 485.

I hate working at the same employer just becasue my PD is not current. And by the time my PD becomes current, may be employer is not doing good, I am not happy at the job.... and I have to start from PERM again at new employer. Also if employer revokes i140, I loose the PD as well!!

Hi supers789,

You don't loose your PD if I-140 is revoked. All you need is an approved I-140. USCIS does honor the PD from a revoked I-140. That is what I have heard from various immigration attorneys. The PD is yours to keep. I think USCIS is generous enough to not push a person out of the queue once you have started your GC and progressed until I-140 approval.

I agree, I am definitely breathing from the July'07 filing. Otherwise it would be worse for me and my family to be working for my first GC employer. I am on your side for that.

A general advice don't stress yourself too much about it. It is definitely not good for your health. I use to check the status on my case every single day during my I-140 stage and got stressed out a lot and eventually earned some health problems from which I am slowly recovering. This is just a friendly advice.

Michael chertoff
12-14-2009, 07:40 PM
Dear Friends,

What about if some of us will go for hunger strike in front of USCIC building? may be the will listen to us then.

please dont give reds if you dont like it, just ignore it. man I am very frustrated with the situation.

MC

jetflyer
12-15-2009, 12:13 PM
What a nobel idea. IV has thousands of members and we all are with you. What we don't seems to have is LEADER. Yes, we are lacking leaders like you, If you start I am sure all IV members will follow you. Just drop us a line when you are ready to start. We all are counting on you.

J.F.

Dear Friends,

What about if some of us will go for hunger strike in front of USCIC building? may be the will listen to us then.

please dont give reds if you dont like it, just ignore it. man I am very frustrated with the situation.

MC

psaxena
12-15-2009, 12:29 PM
Please don't think as if the IV guys walk in and talk and there you go.... the change is in effect.

It takes a lot to get the fixes like these.

Moreover , do not donate with the "IF" condition. Just donate and trust IV , everyone is working as hard ,to get the relief in any way possible for the guys in the line.

SO JUST DON'T WAIT AND START DONATING.


Thanks to IV for that ..

But the word "later" seems to be very distant, not just for us. but for the dependents too
I believe this is administrative fix at least pre filing . This is more acheivable

jetflyer
12-15-2009, 12:34 PM
On a serious note: Our situation is not comparable with Independence War, we will not die if we don’t have GC, we all are doing Well/Good/Okay but our lives could be lot better if we have GC by NOW, not X years from now, we need it NOW. But seems to be we have made compromise with the situation and one way or other we are floating with our lives. Initiatives like Hunger Strike may not work well but some sort of Flower Campaign/similar initiatives may work well. Monthly donation seems to be upsetting because they can’t tie it straight with outcomes, its hard to keep people on the hook for long, everybody is expecting it to happen sooner and Lobbying works slowly, it’s the reality.
my2cents,
J.F.
(2000-2007 H1B, 2007-Now EAD)

crazyghoda
12-15-2009, 01:04 PM
Sounds like a good idea. My doctor told me at my annual physical that I need to lose 10-20 lbs :D

Dear Friends,

What about if some of us will go for hunger strike in front of USCIC building? may be the will listen to us then.

please dont give reds if you dont like it, just ignore it. man I am very frustrated with the situation.

MC

arnab221
12-15-2009, 01:19 PM
Kill 2 birds with the same stone . Nice . Weigh loss + Green card Gain

Leo07
12-15-2009, 01:19 PM
Just as you took initiative to post this message...Start a Poll of who are willing to Join you with this initiative--Of Donating to IV,with this one-point agenda.

Once you have 5-10 people behind you and you look serious enough, IV can guide you with your initiative. As you might know already that there are no full-time employees in IV to pickup requests.

I totally understand that you would want to "part" with money only with some kind of promise. That's totally normal. But, just to get your 'Donation', IV or any member will/can not make any false promises.

After I-140 approval if we are allowed to file 485 that will give us big relief, Willing to contribute big time if IV can make this part of its agenda

kaarmaa
12-15-2009, 01:48 PM
Why not think about other options like stage rallies, talk to national news channels, flood congressmen offices?

thomachan72
12-15-2009, 02:00 PM
Dear Friends,

What about if some of us will go for hunger strike in front of USCIC building? may be the will listen to us then.

please dont give reds if you dont like it, just ignore it. man I am very frustrated with the situation.

MC

Excellent idea Michael Chertoff but let us wait till the nest summer:D:D

thomachan72
12-15-2009, 02:02 PM
Excellent idea Michael Chertoff but let us wait till the nest summer:D:D

Next summer.

immi_seeker
12-15-2009, 03:20 PM
Looks like he is behind in time :-)

Michael chertoff is no more uscis boss. Its janet napolitano

JazzByTheBay
12-15-2009, 07:32 PM
Wishful thinking aside - realistically speaking, it's zilch. As USCIS seems to have predicted, even with spillover implemented the PD isn't moving to 2006 any time soon.

jazz

What are the chances for the PD moving to Mid 2007 by end of 2010 ? :(

kondur_007
12-16-2009, 12:04 PM
Wishful thinking aside - realistically speaking, it's zilch. As USCIS seems to have predicted, even with spillover implemented the PD isn't moving to 2006 any time soon.

jazz

I have been intending to post this for a while: I still have major doubts on the predictions made by DOS. We all are grateful to them to at least do an effort to provide such predictions, but things don't add up.

It is everyone's understanding that these predictions are based on the information about "preadjudicated applications" from USCIS. Now if you look at the total number of preadjudicated applications from what USCIS has published, it seems that PD (for EB2 India) will move to at least to 2007 if not 2008 by the end of fiscal year 2010. There are no new 485 filings (except for EB1 and EB2 ROW) and unless there is a "HUGE" increase in these categories, there is no other way to explain the basis for these predictions.

Someone else mentioned in this thread about the large number of filings in 2005 due to PERM, but remember, this should already be accounted for in USCIS's preadjudicated numbers.

So either these DOS predictions are some form of scare technique, or too much conservative estimate (so as not to disappoint people) or there is a missing piece of information that we have no clue about.

In any case, I do not claim to be a "better predictor" than DOS; but reality is that all these are pedictions and we have to wait till July-Sept 2010 to find out the truth.

Hoping for the best....:)

HopeSprings
12-16-2009, 03:35 PM
I have been intending to post this for a while: I still have major doubts on the predictions made by DOS. We all are grateful to them to at least do an effort to provide such predictions, but things don't add up.

It is everyone's understanding that these predictions are based on the information about "preadjudicated applications" from USCIS. Now if you look at the total number of preadjudicated applications from what USCIS has published, it seems that PD (for EB2 India) will move to at least to 2007 if not 2008 by the end of fiscal year 2010. There are no new 485 filings (except for EB1 and EB2 ROW) and unless there is a "HUGE" increase in these categories, there is no other way to explain the basis for these predictions.

Someone else mentioned in this thread about the large number of filings in 2005 due to PERM, but remember, this should already be accounted for in USCIS's preadjudicated numbers.

So either these DOS predictions are some form of scare technique, or too much conservative estimate (so as not to disappoint people) or there is a missing piece of information that we have no clue about.

In any case, I do not claim to be a "better predictor" than DOS; but reality is that all these are pedictions and we have to wait till July-Sept 2010 to find out the truth.

Hoping for the best....:)

I agree with you. I think USCIS has made a conservative estimate, most likely, based on past spillover numbers. However, situation is little different this time. With the bad economy, there were less number of PERM applications filed in FY2009 that will claim visa numbers in FY2010. Also, with DOL taking ages to approve new PERM applications, there will be less applicants, that filed PERM this FY, claiming visa number. Thus, there will be lot more spillover this time than previous years. IV has taken this into consideration while doing its math but we cannot expect the same from USCIS. I think EB2I should at least move till mid-2007, if not till 2008.

kondur_007
12-16-2009, 08:50 PM
But million dollar question is when they will apply spillover visa?

I think they will apply spillover only in the last quarter (July-sept 2010). Nothing will happen till July. And even in the last quarter, significant jump would be only in sept.

Michael chertoff
12-16-2009, 10:39 PM
What a nobel idea. IV has thousands of members and we all are with you. What we don't seems to have is LEADER. Yes, we are lacking leaders like you, If you start I am sure all IV members will follow you. Just drop us a line when you are ready to start. We all are counting on you.

J.F.


Dear JetFlyer,

lets do it together, let me know when you are ready. we both will start and see how many people will follow us.

thanks for your support.

MC

Mygr8life
12-18-2009, 03:02 PM
I think they will apply spillover only in the last quarter (July-sept 2010). Nothing will happen till July. And even in the last quarter, significant jump would be only in sept.

Kondur...My gut says you are probably right that "they will apply spillover only in the last quarter" but the INA law says "quarterly...". So if "by law" if they are required to utilize the quarterly quota by Dec 2009, how many estimated #s are we talking? Is the estimated spillover visas couple of hundred or 1000 or 10,000-15,000???

Can someone answer the following (I understand IV has crunched the numbers and have predicted dates, but it would also be helpful to see these translated into #s): Does anyone wanna take a shot at crunching the above #s?

Between Oct2009 to Dec2009 (1st quarter):
1. How many total employment visas (is it be 140,000/4) are available per quarter?
2. How many total EB1+EB2Row pending applications?
3. Now the big assumption, How many of these have been adjudicated or have been alloted a visa # or could potentially use a visa #? (gurus...make some assumption).
4. So this current quarter how many visa #s are leftover for spillover to EB2-nonRow? (theortically should/could be or must be/allocated or "used up" by Dec2009, i.e. within the next 13 days)?

So in plain english: The answer could be as simple as "This quarter, which ends on Dec31, 2009, there could be .... visas available for spillover".

This might be unreasonable to expect but could be useful information...Whether spillover happens this quarter or not? thats a different story:confused:

Thanks.

Mygr8life
12-18-2009, 03:30 PM
Oops, sorry for the typo in item 1, it should read:

1. How many total employment visas (is it = 140,000/4) are available per quarter?

**********
Kondur...My gut says you are probably right that "they will apply spillover only in the last quarter" but the INA law says "quarterly...". So if "by law" if they are required to utilize the quarterly quota by Dec 2009, how many estimated #s are we talking? Is the estimated spillover visas couple of hundred or 1000 or 10,000-15,000???

Can someone answer the following (I understand IV has crunched the numbers and have predicted dates, but it would also be helpful to see these translated into #s): Does anyone wanna take a shot at crunching the above #s?

Between Oct2009 to Dec2009 (1st quarter):
1. How many total employment visas (is it be 140,000/4) are available per quarter?
2. How many total EB1+EB2Row pending applications?
3. Now the big assumption, How many of these have been adjudicated or have been alloted a visa # or could potentially use a visa #? (gurus...make some assumption).
4. So this current quarter how many visa #s are leftover for spillover to EB2-nonRow? (theortically should/could be or must be/allocated or "used up" by Dec2009, i.e. within the next 13 days)?

So in plain english: The answer could be as simple as "This quarter, which ends on Dec31, 2009, there could be .... visas available for spillover".

This might be unreasonable to expect but could be useful information...Whether spillover happens this quarter or not? thats a different story:confused:

Thanks.

meridiani.planum
12-19-2009, 01:40 AM
I agree with you. I think USCIS has made a conservative estimate, most likely, based on past spillover numbers. However, situation is little different this time. With the bad economy, there were less number of PERM applications filed in FY2009 that will claim visa numbers in FY2010. Also, with DOL taking ages to approve new PERM applications, there will be less applicants, that filed PERM this FY, claiming visa number. Thus, there will be lot more spillover this time than previous years. IV has taken this into consideration while doing its math but we cannot expect the same from USCIS. I think EB2I should at least move till mid-2007, if not till 2008.

bad economy of 2009 is irrelevant to PD movement because of the huge backlog of pending cases. Just see the stats the USCIS had released earlier. Also, PERM applications dont take visa number. A visa number is allocated when a 485 is being approved.

So EBI reaching 2008 is almost certainly a zero possibility unless there are some legislative changes. There are simply too many pending cases from 2005, 2006.

HopeSprings
12-23-2009, 10:56 AM
bad economy of 2009 is irrelevant to PD movement because of the huge backlog of pending cases. Just see the stats the USCIS had released earlier. Also, PERM applications dont take visa number. A visa number is allocated when a 485 is being approved.

So EBI reaching 2008 is almost certainly a zero possibility unless there are some legislative changes. There are simply too many pending cases from 2005, 2006.

Well, bad economy and less number of PERM applications in 2009 are very relevant to EB2I movement. Note that EB2I gets only around 3200 visa numbers every year in its quota but the number of spillover visas it gets from ROW has been around 12K-15K in past years. The visa spillover depends on how many visa numbers are left in ROW category. Less number of PERM applications in 2009 means less number of ROW cases filing 140+485 and thus less number of visa applications requested. Since, ROW is current, 140+485 can be filed as soon as the PERM is approved. PERM applications from ROW applicants filed in 2009 and early FY2010 will be able to move to 140+485 stage in FY2010.

However, movement of EB2I may be slower because of porting. Lot of people I know, have started the process to port their cases from EB2 to EB3 in 2009. This number can be substantial.

ramreddy
12-26-2009, 03:36 PM
I am on H1 w/ valid EAD . Got my labor and 140 in 05 and recently renewed by EAD.
There are 2 situations, to my case , though I am not sure how unique or otherwise they are :
-- My Immigration Labor petition promised me some $20K more than what I had made 05-09 period.
Far as I can see, GC Is prospective. This was for a Managerial level position to which I was planning to advance and will probably do so. So the position I am working in now and the prospective GC position as indicated in the labor are different.
- I left my sponsoring company briefly since my US client placed me in UK , where the payroll had to run directly and not through my company .So for 07 there was no W2 and income. 08 there is just income for last 5 months and it was lower that all prev years
-now I want to go back to India in 2010 Jan . and work from there for sometime. There will be no US income .

Right now EB2 is stagnating and never moved up since last 3 months .
I want to know given the above history

-- is there serious possibility of GC reject based on your wise exp
--- can I stay in India and when my category becomes current the gc is mailed back to me in India ?>

PL let me know what my options are .....and the best path
Wish you happy new year
Best
Ram

Direct_Action_99
01-03-2010, 11:14 AM
Dear Friends!

(By mistake I posted this in another thread. I think this is the right one)

Good Morning and Happy New Year! Wish you all success, good health, peace of mind and great prosperity!!!

Though I visit the forum quite often, I do not particiapte in a big way. I just read to understand the view points of others. After a lot of hesitation I took time to draft this note!

I am not sure how far my views would find acceptance, but I would like to share some of my thoughts!

1. Although I would sincerely like to give credit to the IV forum for all what they have done (and doing), I personally feel that that the days of prayer and petition are gone!

2. To achieve something concrete and tangible, atleast a minimum of 100,000 (Desis + Chinese / Filippinos if possible) should rally in Washington DC to press our case.
This alone will generate enough publicity. We can show our strength and if there is a consensus, opt for a hunger strike.History has always shown that "direct action" alone has yielded results.

3. Unlike European countries where the laws of immigration and naturalization are simple, here it is very convoluted and confusing. All laws in the USA ONLY favour the employers and the law firms. Due to this, several of us have been harassed by our employers.


4. Instead of harping on the existing archiac and immigrant unfriendly rules, we could propose something like this:

a. Provide Green Cards for all legal immigrants who have completed 8 years of continuous stay, as on say, June 1, 2010. Continuity would mean not leaving the USA for a period of 90 days at a stretch. (I have completed more than 9 years personally, but I am suggesting a time line of 8 years because H1 is valid for 6 years and L1 is for 7 years. It will certianly not acceptable for the US Government to provide GC to every H1 / L1 holder. Any period below 8 years may meet with very stiff opposition)

b. The legal immigrants with 8 + years should have a criminal free record (barring minor traffic offenses) and should have filed their tax returns

c. Citizenship status should be provided to all legal immigrants with 10+ years

Note 1 : Rules in the UK/ Europe are :

Permanent residency after 5 years of legal stay
Citizenship after 10 years of legal stay or 15 yearls of illegal stay

5.We are always getting drawn into the trap and quagmire of the existing regulations and the INS / US goverment / Law firms / Employers are enjoying the fun

Note 2: I have stated everything based on my stay in different countries and keeping in mind the interests of the immigrant community very sincerely. It is upto IV to publish this or discard this. I will also NOT respond to any comments / cristicisms. I am just requesting the readers to kindly intrsopect!

Best wishes!

GC_1000Watt
01-03-2010, 03:19 PM
Dear Friends!

(By mistake I posted this in another thread. I think this is the right one)

Good Morning and Happy New Year! Wish you all success, good health, peace of mind and great prosperity!!!

Though I visit the forum quite often, I do not particiapte in a big way. I just read to understand the view points of others. After a lot of hesitation I took time to draft this note!

I am not sure how far my views would find acceptance, but I would like to share some of my thoughts!

1. Although I would sincerely like to give credit to the IV forum for all what they have done (and doing), I personally feel that that the days of prayer and petition are gone!

2. To achieve something concrete and tangible, atleast a minimum of 100,000 (Desis + Chinese / Filippinos if possible) should rally in Washington DC to press our case.
This alone will generate enough publicity. We can show our strength and if there is a consensus, opt for a hunger strike.History has always shown that "direct action" alone has yielded results.

3. Unlike European countries where the laws of immigration and naturalization are simple, here it is very convoluted and confusing. All laws in the USA ONLY favour the employers and the law firms. Due to this, several of us have been harassed by our employers.


4. Instead of harping on the existing archiac and immigrant unfriendly rules, we could propose something like this:

a. Provide Green Cards for all legal immigrants who have completed 8 years of continuous stay, as on say, June 1, 2010. Continuity would mean not leaving the USA for a period of 90 days at a stretch. (I have completed more than 9 years personally, but I am suggesting a time line of 8 years because H1 is valid for 6 years and L1 is for 7 years. It will certianly not acceptable for the US Government to provide GC to every H1 / L1 holder. Any period below 8 years may meet with very stiff opposition)

b. The legal immigrants with 8 + years should have a criminal free record (barring minor traffic offenses) and should have filed their tax returns

c. Citizenship status should be provided to all legal immigrants with 10+ years

Note 1 : Rules in the UK/ Europe are :

Permanent residency after 5 years of legal stay
Citizenship after 10 years of legal stay or 15 yearls of illegal stay

5.We are always getting drawn into the trap and quagmire of the existing regulations and the INS / US goverment / Law firms / Employers are enjoying the fun

Note 2: I have stated everything based on my stay in different countries and keeping in mind the interests of the immigrant community very sincerely. It is upto IV to publish this or discard this. I will also NOT respond to any comments / cristicisms. I am just requesting the readers to kindly intrsopect!

Best wishes!

To be honest it seems that all of the points you made here are by taking yourself into consideration.

Most of the people here know about immigration policies in Europe, but here the system is altogether different. Isn't it? It will require herculean effort to turn around the whole system. And by the way the current system is not too bad, its just that USCIS sucks big time.
Hold on my friend. We'll be fine. Go IV.
Happy new year.