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meetpravee
12-23-2009, 11:46 AM
Obama plans for health care delay, new jobs bill - - POLITICO.com (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30925.html)

Excerpts from politico -

Internally, White House aides are plunging into a 2010 plan calling for an early focus on creating jobs, especially in the energy sector, along with starting a conversation about deficit reduction measures, the administration officials said.

Both will be major themes for his first State of the Union speech, which will likely take place on Jan. 26 or Feb. 2. White House aides are in the early stages of planning for the national address, but Obama will not only trumpet what he has described as his “B-plus” performance in 2009 but also set the stage for the 2010 congressional campaigns.

Obama and Democrats seem in agreement that they want to minimize the number of tough votes moderates in their party must take in the aftermath of the health care debate.

I think all of us can agree to the fact that immigration is one of the toughest vote for members of congress and looks like it is not going to happen in 2010 election year.

bikram_das_in
12-23-2009, 12:25 PM
Actually the political situation for CIR may well be opposite. Whereas there are no supporter of health care bill in GOP, there are quite number of supporters of the CIR. GOP will not allow democrats take all the credit for CIR. The calculation is simple 12+ million future votes.

sandy_anand
12-23-2009, 12:33 PM
I wouldn't read too much into it - one way or the other. There has been a lot of effort by the Schumer-Lindsey team in the senate to work on a bi-partisan bill. This bill will the first serious salvo in opening the immigration debate. I guess only time will tell. Until then, I for one will keep my hopes up.

Andy Dufresne in letter to Red [Shawshank Redemption] "Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies." :)

sandy_anand
12-23-2009, 12:54 PM
Actually the political situation for CIR may well be opposite. Whereas there are no supporter of health care bill in GOP, there are quite number of supporters of the CIR. GOP will not allow democrats take all the credit for CIR. The calculation is simple 12+ million future votes.

I agree Bikram. There is support on both sides of the aisle for different components of CIR - Democrats for illegals and Republicans for legals. Again, Senate will be the key since there is a lot of opposition legalizing illegals. As long as the bill convinces a few moderate republicans, we should have a deal. Once the senate passes a bill, the House can take up a similar version and will pass it. The heat on congressmen would not be as much when they face November elections since the bill they passed in the House originated in the Senate.

go_guy123
12-23-2009, 03:34 PM
I agree Bikram. There is support on both sides of the aisle for different components of CIR - Democrats for illegals and Republicans for legals. Again, Senate will be the key since there is a lot of opposition legalizing illegals. As long as the bill convinces a few moderate republicans, we should have a deal. Once the senate passes a bill, the House can take up a similar version and will pass it. The heat on congressmen would not be as much when they face November elections since the bill they passed in the House originated in the Senate.

"Again, Senate will be the key since there is a lot of opposition legalizing illegals"

Actually it is the House where immigration bills fail....senate is a lot easier for
immigration bills.

Senators are veteran politicians..most of them actually started as Congressmen...
by the time they become Senators (especially muti-term ones) they are corrupt
from the bribes of the corporate America and have long stopped listening to local people (or issues).

PS: that is why health care bill faces roadblock in Senate while it will be opposite in Senate for immigration bills.
and Gutirezz is a senator as well.

House members run on more grassroots issues where immigration plays a lot and therefore even health care bill passed
easily in Congress.

Hope this helps to understand US politics.

SL%%
04-11-2010, 06:46 AM
IMHO, if CIR don't pass before the next presidential election, I think Obama should not even bother running for 2nd term.

go_guy123
04-11-2010, 10:31 PM
IMHO, if CIR don't pass before the next presidential election, I think Obama should not even bother running for 2nd term.

With health care passed, his second term is a done deal unless he screws up big time in the economy.

Canadian_Dream
04-12-2010, 12:45 AM
Ah, Shawshank Redemption. There was another one on hope. I should add that as well for the completeness sake. It was again, Red to Andy:
Red: Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.


Andy Dufresne in letter to Red [Shawshank Redemption] "Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies." :)

avatar
05-05-2010, 03:32 AM
I don't think even this will get some good output to unemployeed people. As what you know the discrepencies happened in Health reform from Obama administration, the same is going to happen in Immigration bill.

i4u
05-05-2010, 09:40 AM
I don't think even this will get some good output to unemployeed people. As what you know the discrepencies happened in Health reform from Obama administration, the same is going to happen in Immigration bill.

Can't believe you dug out this headliner, when IV is working hard to find solutions to the problems faced by this community!

Besides, cant understand what you are writing here - unemployment, health reform, immigration bill.

Be a part of IV solutions or go home.

spicy_guy
05-05-2010, 10:16 AM
Can't believe you dug out this headliner, when IV is working hard to find solutions to the problems faced by this community!

Besides, cant understand what you are writing here - unemployment, health reform, immigration bill.

Be a part of IV solutions or go home.

Yes, I agree with you. Its better to join IV and help them in their efforts.

thomachan72
05-05-2010, 10:18 AM
Let us imagine the CIR passed and became law. What then? Are we sure that the CIS/State dept is not going to waste anymore visas? Will the EB3 wait reduce? who and how will they handle the sudden influx of 11 million applications. The closer the bill gets to being passed the "Angels of the world" called "Attorneys" will be already starting to pile up their applications. Even the postal dept will be overloaded. It is going to be a disaster.

Here are a few benefits that I can see;
1) Treasury will immediately start seeing money coming in (tax/fees etc)
2) Ilegals will have some sort of paper and therefore access to the health care/other services.
3) Politicians will be laughing for a while
4) Attorneys will be celebrating for couple of decades

Cons;
1) I strogly feel that the EB3 and EB2 etc will remain the same or even get worse. A few might slip through particularly the ones with PD earlier than 2005-2006. This benefit will hapen during the early phase (couple of years at the most after the bill passes) prior to the system flooding.
2) Nobody will have time/resources to concentrate on the legals when you have 11 million applications flooding the system.
3) Corruption will creap into the state/CIS since they are now dealing with 11 million ilegals with so much complicated issues to prove their existance

I know EB3 folks have lost hope and are really hoping the the CIR will save them. If we take a look at the way the labor application is going (even H1b), starting 2009 the numbers have come down dramatically. This year there is going to be very little to almost none. Many employers are not applying anymore. So I believe within a few years (3-4) things will start clearing and the dates will move faster. With CIR and the 11 million applicants we are looking at a complete standstill or breakdown. The only thing that might happen is that the ilegals get some sort of paper with which they might be able to obtain drivers license etc.

Again this is just my opinion of the system based on how it has been working so far and the feeling that there will be a "love towards legals" is unfounded.
This opinion needs to be debated peacefully. Dont come back and say hatefull words. Provide arguments favoring/against and let us see what comes out the best.

snram4
05-05-2010, 12:47 PM
There will be a delay in CIS process when they try to legalise 12 m illegal immigrants. But not so much. May be I140 may take 1 year instead of 4 months time and double the I485 time. It is not going to be a big deal compared to waiting time of 9 years. The reason is government will hire temporary workers to resolve the issue. You can check what happened in 1986. No unusual
delay due to legalization of illegal immigrants due to 1986 bill

This is true. Unfortunately, some people will attack you for your bitter truth (I was attacked many time).
If CIR pass with mass amnesty,
It may help short time to EB legal until flood start. Once flood of illegal applicants starts, I can't image what will happen to EB legals !!
We are not learning from the history. Mini amnesty of 245(i) in 2001 (it has only around 300K illegal applicants) had literally collapsed labor system and EB3 India is not coming out of 2001 since last 5 years. Thousands of legal EB immigrants were trapped into BEC for many years and suffered unimaginable pain.
It would be practically impossible to fix damage of EB legal, if CIR pass with mass amnesty.
Be remember, pro-amnesty people do not have any love to EB legals otherwise they have not kept EB provision hostages since last 5 years. Many time, piece meal provisions for EB legals were about to pass but few pro-amnesty people have rudely block them!!

(PS : I do not have any personal interest. Whether CIR pass or not, it not going to affect me as personal level. However, I do care for EB3 I, who are waiting more than 8 years.)

kumarc123
05-05-2010, 12:56 PM
Very true,
My friend people often to understand one's point, specially at the time of stress. I used to
have all greens, but some members gave me reds just because I expressed my opinion. It is sad but reality.



Welcome to the club,

kumarc123
05-05-2010, 12:57 PM
Very true,

My friend people often misunderstand one's point, specially at the time of stress. I used to have all greens, but some members gave me reds just because I expressed my opinion. It is sad but reality.



Welcome to the club,

thomachan72
05-05-2010, 01:10 PM
No body have any surety that amnesty will pass, The President's plan is to take CIR at the floor and the amnesty will definitely fail. no doubt about that, even The President knows that. Just before elections at least they will introduce and put for a vote or at least debate. That is the plan now. And if CIR fails then this time amendments to Visa recapture happens. and we cannot expect everything current as July 2007. it will move 2 years for 6 months level. USCIS is double cautious after the July 2007 fiasco.

And then if it is problem for Eb3_India, after amnesty, it is going to be problem for EB2 and EB1 also. no doubt about it. Because 12 million is not a small number.

And this congress will have a provision or seperate department to deal with Illegal amnesty so do not worry about after passing amnesty what will happen, and this wont fear anybody for that matter please.

Sakthisagar, just to clarify your point;
you are saying that the bill will be introduced and likely defeated? However, the visa recapture will be passed separately? You are also saying that if at all the bill passes the congress will have a seperate provision (by creating a seperate department) to deal with the ilegals specifically?
My friend if that happens that would be great.
If you read the previous post (not mine) it clearly points out the reality that is likely to happen.
I was concerned that given the current increased push from the ilegal group for CIR that the whole thing might pass. If that happens
Again this discussion is not to discourage anybody from taking a pro stance regarding CIR but rather a honest attempt to investigate the expected outcome.
People are blindly supporting the CIR thinking that the visa recapture provision + any anual increased limits will kick in and be effective. Also regarding congress establishing a new department to efficiently deal with the 11 million new applicants could be a myth? The CIS could not efficiently handle a few hundreds of EB and "wasted" thousands of visas so how can we assume "logically speaking" that by adding the burden of another 11 million folks to the system is going to make it more efficient?
The main compulsion for the CIR this year is "economic".
Even though the health care reform was passed it still does not address the 11 million (or more) ilegals who are still a drain on the health care system by using the ER more frequently.
If these 11 million are brought into the mainstream (they many never be naturalized), they will then be held liable and their employers will have to deduct taxes, SS, etc. Even if you can get $100 per ilegal per year, calculate how much that is?
Now the question is will the system be still able to deal with the EB backlog while simultaneously handling the ilegal flood? If it can then I am very much supportive but it will take a great deal of convincing to make me think that the system as it is now can perform these things well.
There is no economic benefit and no moral compulsions to help the EB then how will it happen??

dummgelauft
05-05-2010, 01:14 PM
Let us imagine the CIR passed and became law. What then? Are we sure that the CIS/State dept is not going to waste anymore visas? Will the EB3 wait reduce? who and how will they handle the sudden influx of 11 million applications. The closer the bill gets to being passed the "Angels of the world" called "Attorneys" will be already starting to pile up their applications. Even the postal dept will be overloaded. It is going to be a disaster.

Here are a few benefits that I can see;
1) Treasury will immediately start seeing money coming in (tax/fees etc)
2) Ilegals will have some sort of paper and therefore access to the health care/other services.
3) Politicians will be laughing for a while
4) Attorneys will be celebrating for couple of decades

Cons;
1) I strogly feel that the EB3 and EB2 etc will remain the same or even get worse. A few might slip through particularly the ones with PD earlier than 2005-2006. This benefit will hapen during the early phase (couple of years at the most after the bill passes) prior to the system flooding.
2) Nobody will have time/resources to concentrate on the legals when you have 11 million applications flooding the system.
3) Corruption will creap into the state/CIS since they are now dealing with 11 million ilegals with so much complicated issues to prove their existance

I know EB3 folks have lost hope and are really hoping the the CIR will save them. If we take a look at the way the labor application is going (even H1b), starting 2009 the numbers have come down dramatically. This year there is going to be very little to almost none. Many employers are not applying anymore. So I believe within a few years (3-4) things will start clearing and the dates will move faster. With CIR and the 11 million applicants we are looking at a complete standstill or breakdown. The only thing that might happen is that the ilegals get some sort of paper with which they might be able to obtain drivers license etc.

Again this is just my opinion of the system based on how it has been working so far and the feeling that there will be a "love towards legals" is unfounded.
This opinion needs to be debated peacefully. Dont come back and say hatefull words. Provide arguments favoring/against and let us see what comes out the best.

Could not have stated this better.

(1) It is going to be a procedural and logistical nightmare. Blanket legalisation of 11 million ( I am sure the number is much higher though) will just cripple the USCIS. The Congress can put all the ink on all the paper they want, but it all means squat without proper execution and enforcement.

(2) You are right on the money when you mention corruption creeping in to the system. EVERYBODY has a price. Drug cartels with their deep deep pockets will be able to get their people legalised in the US.

(3) Without stemming the flow (sealing the US-Mex. border) and taking the jobs away (penalising and proscecuting EMPLOYERS of illegals), this cycle will repeat itself a third time aftera couple of decades. (Rememer, the Reagan amnesty).

thomachan72
05-05-2010, 01:14 PM
There will be a delay in CIS process when they try to legalise 12 m illegal immigrants. But not so much. May be I140 may take 1 year instead of 4 months time and double the I485 time. It is not going to be a big deal compared to waiting time of 9 years. The reason is government will hire temporary workers to resolve the issue. You can check what happened in 1986. No unusual
delay due to legalization of illegal immigrants due to 1986 bill

Thanks snram4 for this reply. This is the kind of information we are looking for. We just have to be sure that we are not going to be screwed when and if the flood gates were to be oppened. Just seeing a few beneficial provisions in the bill does not gurantee that these will be operated upon by the CIS ernestly. We already know that the labor dept and others are completely trying to screw things up for the EB.

kumarc123
05-05-2010, 01:37 PM
Thanks snram4 for this reply. This is the kind of information we are looking for. We just have to be sure that we are not going to be screwed when and if the flood gates were to be oppened. Just seeing a few beneficial provisions in the bill does not gurantee that these will be operated upon by the CIS ernestly. We already know that the labor dept and others are completely trying to screw things up for the EB.

Personally,
I believe USCIS will not be able to give amnesty to 11 million illegals, just because a potential law was passed. The distinction is between aptitude and capability, USCIS does not have the capability in terms of resources. They will need to clear the existing backlog to move to granting or abiding (when passed) to give citizenship to illegals.

USCIS director, had clearly stated they don't have the capability yet. Either way, we will benefit from all this.


Good luck!

uma001
05-05-2010, 01:56 PM
Let us imagine the CIR passed and became law. What then? Are we sure that the CIS/State dept is not going to waste anymore visas? Will the EB3 wait reduce? who and how will they handle the sudden influx of 11 million applications. The closer the bill gets to being passed the "Angels of the world" called "Attorneys" will be already starting to pile up their applications. Even the postal dept will be overloaded. It is going to be a disaster.

Here are a few benefits that I can see;
1) Treasury will immediately start seeing money coming in (tax/fees etc)
2) Ilegals will have some sort of paper and therefore access to the health care/other services.
3) Politicians will be laughing for a while
4) Attorneys will be celebrating for couple of decades

Cons;
1) I strogly feel that the EB3 and EB2 etc will remain the same or even get worse. A few might slip through particularly the ones with PD earlier than 2005-2006. This benefit will hapen during the early phase (couple of years at the most after the bill passes) prior to the system flooding.
2) Nobody will have time/resources to concentrate on the legals when you have 11 million applications flooding the system.
3) Corruption will creap into the state/CIS since they are now dealing with 11 million ilegals with so much complicated issues to prove their existance

I know EB3 folks have lost hope and are really hoping the the CIR will save them. If we take a look at the way the labor application is going (even H1b), starting 2009 the numbers have come down dramatically. This year there is going to be very little to almost none. Many employers are not applying anymore. So I believe within a few years (3-4) things will start clearing and the dates will move faster. With CIR and the 11 million applicants we are looking at a complete standstill or breakdown. The only thing that might happen is that the ilegals get some sort of paper with which they might be able to obtain drivers license etc.

Again this is just my opinion of the system based on how it has been working so far and the feeling that there will be a "love towards legals" is unfounded.
This opinion needs to be debated peacefully. Dont come back and say hatefull words. Provide arguments favoring/against and let us see what comes out the best.

It has one main advantage. Those who completed masters and have job offer from US based company will get green cards immediately. Thats good enough. THose who dont have masters, will do masters and get the green card immediately (this take 2 years). This is better than waiting for life long on EB3...

thomachan72
05-05-2010, 01:58 PM
Personally,
I believe USCIS will not be able to give amnesty to 11 million illegals, just because a potential law was passed. The distinction is between aptitude and capability, USCIS does not have the capability in terms of resources. They will need to clear the existing backlog to move to granting or abiding (when passed) to give citizenship to illegals.

USCIS director, had clearly stated they don't have the capability yet. Either way, we will benefit from all this.


Good luck!

I guess that is true. However, the moment the bill is passed all enforcements other than those at the border will have to stop. Everybody ilegally present essentially gets some sort of immunity awaiting their petition filing and aproval. Meanwhile as you said "maybe" we EB could potentially get a push forward. I guess, particularly, for the EB3 folks it might be a rish worth taking? rather than sitting and waiting?

thomachan72
05-05-2010, 03:47 PM
In 1966 amnesty, Government estimated 1 to 1.5 millions illegals and actually 2.7 millions illegals got green card. Now Government is estimating 11 to 13 millions illegal and God knows how many will file for Green card, if CIR pass.

I truly don't have any idea how it affected Family based and Employment based legal immigrants. But I can tell you that it was pre-IT revolution era and there was practically no pressure on Employment Based immigration. Approval system was pretty straight than today's system. There was no issue of background check. Just one example, finger print/Biometric appointment at local service center would be nightmare, if amnesty pass!! Do you think USCIS will increase local service center by 15 times?

Current history indicates that if Government has more than 50% high case load, system breaks. Director of USCIS has also admitted on Congressional hearing also. Three examples of system failure
1. 245(i). Only 300K labors from illegals in April 2001 failed whole system
2. USCIS increased fees for Citizenship in 2007 and Citizenship application was substantially increased (little more than 50%) and system failed.
3. Congress mandated passport for Northern hemisphere countries travel (Earlier US Citizen not required passport to travel these countries) and all of sudden passport application was doubled, System failed. Media made big voice. It was citizen's issue so they have lot of God fathers. However it took more than 1 year to come out of this passport backlog.

I appreciate your positive attitude on efficiency of USCIS.
Sadly and unfortunately I have to agree with you completely. I wish what you said were not true but cannot be that blind to the facts. Even if you have everything done electronically there will still be tremendous chaos. Imagine the situation with eveything being on paper as it is now!! They will need superman/spiderman to work at the CIS. Many applications new and existing will be irrecoverably lost, transfered here and there or completely ignored (a very dangerous situation).
However, as somebody pointed out earlier, if the CIR is introduced and debated, maybe it will fail and the issues of EB could be passed?