PDA

View Full Version : Predictions for July Bulletin


knowDOL
05-22-2006, 11:46 AM
Hello everyone,

Does anybody know if there be any new numbers released for the last quarter Jul- Sep 2006. Analysts please post your predictions for India Eb2 for next month. Will it move another 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5or 6 months for July or not. If so why and if not why.

I know everyone is busy looking forward for CIR and its passage through Senate, house and finally by President. Mean while I am sure we will see three or four more Visa Bulletin's, so please post your predictions.

wam4wam
05-22-2006, 12:48 PM
i am keeping my fingers crossed that it is not so
but all things indicate that eb2 is done for the rest of the year

if anything at all it might advance by a week or 15 days
most likely none

knowDOL
05-22-2006, 12:57 PM
Thanks every one. Looks like EB2 for India may not move until October when the new numbers come. But last year the numbers moved forward in the last quarter because all the numbers that were not used by other countries (other countries were not retrogressed by that time) were given to oversubscribe countries. I was thinking something similar might happen this time also. But may be from the past three months it got moved enough and there may not be any movement.

Lets just hope that it will move forward.

Raju
05-22-2006, 01:13 PM
i am keeping my fingers crossed that it is not so
but all things indicate that eb2 is done for the rest of the year

if anything at all it might advance by a week or 15 days
most likely none

Eb2 and EB2 are going to move a month at the best. I would ball park them to move 15 days or so

knowDOL
05-22-2006, 04:27 PM
Sorry to say, but I didn't like this mike232, so pessimistic. We are still having a soft country limit and EB2 world is still current why the hell you thik it will retrogress one year back now. Can you please justify.

mmlulin
05-22-2006, 06:28 PM
how about EB1?

GCBy3000
05-22-2006, 07:38 PM
It is all prediction. Everyone has right to predict what they think. knowDOL, Why are you so mad about this prediction time pass thread.

knowDOL
05-23-2006, 04:18 PM
illegals do not come into EB quotas. THeir quota is other worker quota which is seperate I think. Any soul around who thinks there is a possibility of EB2 movement in July bulletin for India.

go_gc_way
05-23-2006, 11:49 PM
I have a quick question ... so is it the month of October , visas unused by other countries would be released to countries over subscribed?

If Yes, would it be a significant forward movement of eb3 and eb2 in October for retrogressed?

Thanks for sharing.

voldemar
05-24-2006, 08:48 AM
I have a quick question ... so is it the month of October , visas unused by other countries would be released to countries over subscribed?

If Yes, would it be a significant forward movement of eb3 and eb2 in October for retrogressed?
It could be for EB2 because EB2 World is current, not for EB3.

knowDOL
05-24-2006, 09:57 AM
I thought those numbers would be released in last quarter which starts in July. I was not sure. Can anyone confirm, at what time of the year, the numbers not used by the rest of the world flow into over sunscribed countries.

Thanks in advance.

nandakumar
05-25-2006, 02:16 PM
I beleive there may not be a forward movement of PD but rather there are high chances of backward movement because of lot of labor approvals from backlog centers.

Unless there is a change in Immigration legislation, we cannot hope that PD would become current any time soon.

IV is doing a great job, let us support it and help ourselves.

starving_dog
06-05-2006, 02:30 PM
mike232, which category, which country?
i.e. EB-3 India

atlfp
06-05-2006, 02:45 PM
I think he is just throwing out of questions. No prediction can be taken seriously anyway.

mike232, which category, which country?
i.e. EB-3 India

485Mbe4001
06-05-2006, 02:49 PM
does anyone has any predictions as to when the priority date of December 2004 become current??? providing the new law doesn't pass. I don't think the immigration reform will take place this year....

we can keep predicting numbers till we are blue in the face, it will either increase your desperation or make you more despondent. Lets focus lobbying and hope for a change in the process or some sort of relief.

or :) find the person who was responsible for initiating and passing the previous visa recapture law and get some tips from him on how pass retrogression relief again.

go_gc_way
06-05-2006, 03:33 PM
Has EB2 Quota been used up for the year 2006? How come did it been used for some countries and did not for others. Frankly I don't have a clue !

I like predicting numbers , but I come here to see updates of immigration proceedings.

Thanks Guys for keeping things alive.

starving_dog
06-05-2006, 03:47 PM
I predict that EB-3 rest of world will move to August 1, 2001 in the July bulletin. I used the scientific PIDOOMA method. Pulled it directly out of my a**.

knowDOL
06-05-2006, 04:04 PM
:-). I would like to share my predictions. I feel that EB2 India will move up to Jun 01 2003 and EB3 India will move up to May 01 2001. Last month the progress was not big for EB2 so this month it should progress the normal 6 months. Up until 2004 Aug/Sep the no of EB2 filings are small compared to EB3. in 2004 Sep PERM rule published since then EB2 filings and LC filings in general soared up. Though last months' bulletin left us thinking that the demand has been met, I think whole 2006 EB2 numbers are not used. So, there may be some numbers not used by rest of the world for EB2 and India and China can share some. Lets see.

mrajatish
06-05-2006, 04:16 PM
You meant Aug/Sep 2005 for PERM?

knowDOL
06-05-2006, 04:55 PM
No. I meant 2004 AUg/SEP for PERM publishing time. At that time most attorneys adviced their companies to file in traditional RIR or nON-RIR filing since it will go away by March 2005. So, many people filed with the old system. And in October 2004 EB3 retrogressed, so many people (especiallly consulting) filed in EB2, full time employees still filed in EB3 itself because attorneys really need to show the ability to give high slaries info for EB2. Until 2004 October the number of EB2 filings were two little.. my guess is probably 15-20% of EB3. After October 2004, the % of EB2 filings was more than EB3 or atleast might be at 50%-50%. So, chances of EB2 moving a faster than EB3 is pretty high for PD's until October 2004.

You meant Aug/Sep 2005 for PERM?

eb3_nepa
06-05-2006, 05:18 PM
Guys to be honest these predictions are a total waste of time. :)

It's like the saying goes: "The advantage to being a pessimist is that you're either constantly being proven right or pleasantly surprised."

sobers
06-05-2006, 05:36 PM
let me say 6 months movement for EB2 India was not 'normal', in fact it was not normal. the dates moved ahead b that much so USCIS/State could determine demand. Once demand materialized (primarily from late 2002), the dates stopped at Jan 2003. Dates may or may not move...depending on how much demand appears. However, it is highly unlikely dates will continue to move at 6 months pace.

knowDOL
06-05-2006, 11:40 PM
In one way this approach is good. On the otherhand, what may be good is to think positive and be happy for 20 days and fell bad for 10 days if dates did not move forward. :) Guys to be honest these predictions are a total waste of time. :)

It's like the saying goes: "The advantage to being a pessimist is that you're either constantly being proven right or pleasantly surprised."

starving_dog
06-06-2006, 07:45 AM
I guess the most solid prediction that can be made regarding the July Visa Bulletin is that I predict that it will come out on Monday June 12th.:D

pappu
06-06-2006, 10:21 AM
I guess the most solid prediction that can be made regarding the July Visa Bulletin is that I predict that it will come out on Monday June 12th.:D
It generally comes out on fridays of the first week of the month. ( so that we can have a great weekend :( and come back on Monday with a new zeal and determination in our to struggle during the long wait times ahead). So lets all put all speculations to rest and relax. Speculations would not help us since the whole bulletin content is unpredictable.

knowDOL
06-06-2006, 12:14 PM
Nah.. it will come 9th June after 12:00 noon. Having said that, we can use this thread as a relaxation and stress relief thread :).
I guess the most solid prediction that can be made regarding the July Visa Bulletin is that I predict that it will come out on Monday June 12th.:D

marlon2006
06-06-2006, 01:12 PM
Oh, Mike !
I've noticed that on June 2006 Visa Bulletin, DOS did not mention anything about estimatives for future cut-off dates for EB3 World or EB2. They did mention that "Other categories" are unavailable and it would remain so.

I am wondering whether the fact that nothing was mentioned regarding EB3 or EB2 could be a good indication for us (?)


My guess is that July bulletin will not come out for some time yet, because it is retrogressed in Philadelphia Bulletin Backlog Processing Center, I just hope that they will print the bulletins under FIFO rules so we won't find out that in July 2010everything is cureent and a day after that in July 2006 nothing has moved forward :)

vicks_don
06-06-2006, 03:01 PM
if we had asked somebody to predict JUNE 2006 Visa Bulletin i am sure all would have said that EB2 will move 6 months. But reality is that it did not move at all. I think there is no logic involved. Atleast people who applied in 2005 will not get their GC's in next 5 years. So we should all hope that immigration reform should pass.

greenguru
06-06-2006, 03:55 PM
I am Guessing EB3 would be 2001 June.... ( Blind guess )

jugnu123
06-06-2006, 04:02 PM
Sorry to know that you are blind. Sorry man.

I am Guessing EB3 would be 2001 June.... ( Blind guess )

shree19772000
06-06-2006, 07:35 PM
if we had asked somebody to predict JUNE 2006 Visa Bulletin i am sure all would have said that EB2 will move 6 months. But reality is that it did not move at all. I think there is no logic involved. Atleast people who applied in 2005 will not get their GC's in next 5 years. So we should all hope that immigration reform should pass.

What abt people who applied in 2006?

mrajatish
06-06-2006, 08:51 PM
10 Years :)

posmd
06-06-2006, 11:17 PM
I happen to think that those who apply in 2006 will have a shorter wait than those who applied in 2002/2003.
It is likely something will be done pro legal immigration in the coming 1-2 yrs. In fact the likelihood is very high.
In this EB immigration game, your luck and chance and timing determines more how expeditiously you get the green card than anything else.

skp71
06-07-2006, 08:39 PM
If that's the case, why should they pre-adjudicate? If they expect there's no movement for another 1 or 2 years, why they need to pre-approve? That's kind of re-work for them.

I beleive there may not be a forward movement of PD but rather there are high chances of backward movement because of lot of labor approvals from backlog centers.

Unless there is a change in Immigration legislation, we cannot hope that PD would become current any time soon.

IV is doing a great job, let us support it and help ourselves.

sunofeast_gc
06-09-2006, 03:25 AM
This is my guess for july bulletin.

rheoretro
06-09-2006, 10:27 AM
Folks,

There's really not much point in spending too much time and energy in making predictions. We work neither for State nor the USCIS, and they are the decision makers. After the June '06 Visa Bulletin, we certainly know what the worst case scenario is. Speculation, at this point, doesn't serve any purpose, as we only psych each other out needlessly. Good luck to one and all. Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope for the best. Enjoy your weekend. Hopefully State won't spoil our weekend for the following week. Cheers!

GCBy3000
06-09-2006, 11:04 AM
If that's the case, why should they pre-adjudicate? If they expect there's no movement for another 1 or 2 years, why they need to pre-approve? That's kind of re-work for them.


They are expecting lots of illegal fellow paper work. That is why they are pre-adjucating all the exisiting 485's and rushing to complete whatever work they have it in pending.

My dear friend, do not expect that there is someone in favor of legals. Other than legal immigrants, no one is in favour for us.

starving_dog
06-09-2006, 12:11 PM
We realize that it is a waste of time to predict the visa bulletin, it is stress relief for people who share a common cause.

As far as the World Cup goes.... the only cup I care about is the Stanley Cup.

Guess where I am from?

I will watch the World Cup because I am a sports junkie, but hockey is my first passion.

yabadaba
06-09-2006, 04:58 PM
why isnt it out yet???

starving_dog
06-09-2006, 05:12 PM
My prediction was Monday the 12th.

yabadaba
06-12-2006, 01:01 PM
when will it come out?? 1:00 pm est

LSing
06-12-2006, 01:21 PM
let hope for batter. May be very thing in Eb will current.;)

balu_g
06-12-2006, 02:42 PM
Guys, Its more than 2 weeks into June. Why didnt they release the VB? Either it is something too good or too bad.

kinvin
06-12-2006, 02:52 PM
wam4wam where did u get this info from?

go_gc_way
06-12-2006, 02:53 PM
I do not see it updated yet .. How any one got these numbers above?

Am I checking the right page !!

asdqwe2k
06-12-2006, 02:58 PM
he is just playing,,,

nandakumar
06-12-2006, 03:04 PM
It is usually published on a Friday in the second week of the month not sure why this month it is delayed.

knnmbd
06-12-2006, 03:16 PM
It is usually published on a Friday in the second week of the month not sure why this month it is delayed.
Itís probably CURRENT for EB's and USCIS wants to surprise all of us and are brainstorming on how to do that. Now that's wishful thinking. Itís a pity that we need to look at this bulletin in anguish every month. Let's hope the CIR will be a panacea for all our concerns. Good luck to us.

ch_murthy
06-12-2006, 03:28 PM
how about eb2 india - dec 2005? :D :eek:

ksircar
06-12-2006, 03:53 PM
"how about eb2 india - dec 2005?" - No, Dec, 2006.

starving_dog
06-12-2006, 03:53 PM
Here is a spreadsheet that I made up to project a finish date. Any of you higher tech math wizards care to comment on how I could improve this thing? I have noticed that the trend seems to be 2 weeks movement per month in this category.

This is for EB-3 rest of world but could easily be changed to accomodate any visa category

arnet
06-12-2006, 04:19 PM
be positive, each month will move by few weeks or a month until this bill passes. USCIS pressuring us so that we will press lawmakers to pass this bill.

starving_dog
06-12-2006, 04:25 PM
I am being positive, this retrogression is only affecting my path to citizenship. I have a great job with a company that I like working for and my spouse has employment authorization, we own a home and our kids are in an excellent school system.

go_gc_way
06-12-2006, 04:44 PM
be positive, each month will move by few weeks or a month until this bill passes. USCIS pressuring us so that we will press lawmakers to pass this bill.

Indeed this thread is just STRESS RELIEF.

mbartosik
06-12-2006, 04:57 PM
what this spreadsheet does not account for is the volume of applications processed. Dates leading up to 5/1/2001 had huge numbers of applications. The next point on the graph will be the critical one. That should give the rate of processing after the i245 backlog date. Then the issue is visa quota for the year being hit.

starving_dog
06-12-2006, 05:09 PM
You'd think they could tell you how many visas have been allocated to date as part of the bulletin.

knowDOL
06-13-2006, 12:56 PM
We can't even predict the date on which the bulletin will come out, how can we think that we can predict bulletin.

Here is the July bulletin finally with lots of good news for Chinese EB2 hholders and plenty of bad news for EB2 and EB3 India.

http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_2943.html

Employment
Based All CHINA INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
1st C C 01JAN06 C C
2nd C 01MAR05 01JAN03 C C
3rd 01OCT01 01OCT01 15APR01 22APR01 01OCT01
Sch A C C C C C
Other Workers U U U U U