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  #16 (permalink)  
Old 05-05-2010, 01:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sakthisagar View Post
No body have any surety that amnesty will pass, The President's plan is to take CIR at the floor and the amnesty will definitely fail. no doubt about that, even The President knows that. Just before elections at least they will introduce and put for a vote or at least debate. That is the plan now. And if CIR fails then this time amendments to Visa recapture happens. and we cannot expect everything current as July 2007. it will move 2 years for 6 months level. USCIS is double cautious after the July 2007 fiasco.

And then if it is problem for Eb3_India, after amnesty, it is going to be problem for EB2 and EB1 also. no doubt about it. Because 12 million is not a small number.

And this congress will have a provision or seperate department to deal with Illegal amnesty so do not worry about after passing amnesty what will happen, and this wont fear anybody for that matter please.
Sakthisagar, just to clarify your point;
you are saying that the bill will be introduced and likely defeated? However, the visa recapture will be passed separately? You are also saying that if at all the bill passes the congress will have a seperate provision (by creating a seperate department) to deal with the ilegals specifically?
My friend if that happens that would be great.
If you read the previous post (not mine) it clearly points out the reality that is likely to happen.
I was concerned that given the current increased push from the ilegal group for CIR that the whole thing might pass. If that happens
Again this discussion is not to discourage anybody from taking a pro stance regarding CIR but rather a honest attempt to investigate the expected outcome.
People are blindly supporting the CIR thinking that the visa recapture provision + any anual increased limits will kick in and be effective. Also regarding congress establishing a new department to efficiently deal with the 11 million new applicants could be a myth? The CIS could not efficiently handle a few hundreds of EB and "wasted" thousands of visas so how can we assume "logically speaking" that by adding the burden of another 11 million folks to the system is going to make it more efficient?
The main compulsion for the CIR this year is "economic".
Even though the health care reform was passed it still does not address the 11 million (or more) ilegals who are still a drain on the health care system by using the ER more frequently.
If these 11 million are brought into the mainstream (they many never be naturalized), they will then be held liable and their employers will have to deduct taxes, SS, etc. Even if you can get $100 per ilegal per year, calculate how much that is?
Now the question is will the system be still able to deal with the EB backlog while simultaneously handling the ilegal flood? If it can then I am very much supportive but it will take a great deal of convincing to make me think that the system as it is now can perform these things well.
There is no economic benefit and no moral compulsions to help the EB then how will it happen??
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  #17 (permalink)  
Old 05-05-2010, 01:14 PM
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Default 100% Correct!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by thomachan72 View Post
Let us imagine the CIR passed and became law. What then? Are we sure that the CIS/State dept is not going to waste anymore visas? Will the EB3 wait reduce? who and how will they handle the sudden influx of 11 million applications. The closer the bill gets to being passed the "Angels of the world" called "Attorneys" will be already starting to pile up their applications. Even the postal dept will be overloaded. It is going to be a disaster.

Here are a few benefits that I can see;
1) Treasury will immediately start seeing money coming in (tax/fees etc)
2) Ilegals will have some sort of paper and therefore access to the health care/other services.
3) Politicians will be laughing for a while
4) Attorneys will be celebrating for couple of decades

Cons;
1) I strogly feel that the EB3 and EB2 etc will remain the same or even get worse. A few might slip through particularly the ones with PD earlier than 2005-2006. This benefit will hapen during the early phase (couple of years at the most after the bill passes) prior to the system flooding.
2) Nobody will have time/resources to concentrate on the legals when you have 11 million applications flooding the system.
3) Corruption will creap into the state/CIS since they are now dealing with 11 million ilegals with so much complicated issues to prove their existance

I know EB3 folks have lost hope and are really hoping the the CIR will save them. If we take a look at the way the labor application is going (even H1b), starting 2009 the numbers have come down dramatically. This year there is going to be very little to almost none. Many employers are not applying anymore. So I believe within a few years (3-4) things will start clearing and the dates will move faster. With CIR and the 11 million applicants we are looking at a complete standstill or breakdown. The only thing that might happen is that the ilegals get some sort of paper with which they might be able to obtain drivers license etc.

Again this is just my opinion of the system based on how it has been working so far and the feeling that there will be a "love towards legals" is unfounded.
This opinion needs to be debated peacefully. Dont come back and say hatefull words. Provide arguments favoring/against and let us see what comes out the best.
Could not have stated this better.

(1) It is going to be a procedural and logistical nightmare. Blanket legalisation of 11 million ( I am sure the number is much higher though) will just cripple the USCIS. The Congress can put all the ink on all the paper they want, but it all means squat without proper execution and enforcement.

(2) You are right on the money when you mention corruption creeping in to the system. EVERYBODY has a price. Drug cartels with their deep deep pockets will be able to get their people legalised in the US.

(3) Without stemming the flow (sealing the US-Mex. border) and taking the jobs away (penalising and proscecuting EMPLOYERS of illegals), this cycle will repeat itself a third time aftera couple of decades. (Rememer, the Reagan amnesty).
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  #18 (permalink)  
Old 05-05-2010, 01:14 PM
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Originally Posted by snram4 View Post
There will be a delay in CIS process when they try to legalise 12 m illegal immigrants. But not so much. May be I140 may take 1 year instead of 4 months time and double the I485 time. It is not going to be a big deal compared to waiting time of 9 years. The reason is government will hire temporary workers to resolve the issue. You can check what happened in 1986. No unusual
delay due to legalization of illegal immigrants due to 1986 bill
Thanks snram4 for this reply. This is the kind of information we are looking for. We just have to be sure that we are not going to be screwed when and if the flood gates were to be oppened. Just seeing a few beneficial provisions in the bill does not gurantee that these will be operated upon by the CIS ernestly. We already know that the labor dept and others are completely trying to screw things up for the EB.
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  #19 (permalink)  
Old 05-05-2010, 01:37 PM
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Thumbs up Other Way Around

Quote:
Originally Posted by thomachan72 View Post
Thanks snram4 for this reply. This is the kind of information we are looking for. We just have to be sure that we are not going to be screwed when and if the flood gates were to be oppened. Just seeing a few beneficial provisions in the bill does not gurantee that these will be operated upon by the CIS ernestly. We already know that the labor dept and others are completely trying to screw things up for the EB.
Personally,
I believe USCIS will not be able to give amnesty to 11 million illegals, just because a potential law was passed. The distinction is between aptitude and capability, USCIS does not have the capability in terms of resources. They will need to clear the existing backlog to move to granting or abiding (when passed) to give citizenship to illegals.

USCIS director, had clearly stated they don't have the capability yet. Either way, we will benefit from all this.


Good luck!
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  #20 (permalink)  
Old 05-05-2010, 01:56 PM
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uma001 has much to be proud of uma001 has much to be proud of uma001 has much to be proud of uma001 has much to be proud of uma001 has much to be proud of uma001 has much to be proud of uma001 has much to be proud of uma001 has much to be proud of uma001 has much to be proud of
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by thomachan72 View Post
Let us imagine the CIR passed and became law. What then? Are we sure that the CIS/State dept is not going to waste anymore visas? Will the EB3 wait reduce? who and how will they handle the sudden influx of 11 million applications. The closer the bill gets to being passed the "Angels of the world" called "Attorneys" will be already starting to pile up their applications. Even the postal dept will be overloaded. It is going to be a disaster.

Here are a few benefits that I can see;
1) Treasury will immediately start seeing money coming in (tax/fees etc)
2) Ilegals will have some sort of paper and therefore access to the health care/other services.
3) Politicians will be laughing for a while
4) Attorneys will be celebrating for couple of decades

Cons;
1) I strogly feel that the EB3 and EB2 etc will remain the same or even get worse. A few might slip through particularly the ones with PD earlier than 2005-2006. This benefit will hapen during the early phase (couple of years at the most after the bill passes) prior to the system flooding.
2) Nobody will have time/resources to concentrate on the legals when you have 11 million applications flooding the system.
3) Corruption will creap into the state/CIS since they are now dealing with 11 million ilegals with so much complicated issues to prove their existance

I know EB3 folks have lost hope and are really hoping the the CIR will save them. If we take a look at the way the labor application is going (even H1b), starting 2009 the numbers have come down dramatically. This year there is going to be very little to almost none. Many employers are not applying anymore. So I believe within a few years (3-4) things will start clearing and the dates will move faster. With CIR and the 11 million applicants we are looking at a complete standstill or breakdown. The only thing that might happen is that the ilegals get some sort of paper with which they might be able to obtain drivers license etc.

Again this is just my opinion of the system based on how it has been working so far and the feeling that there will be a "love towards legals" is unfounded.
This opinion needs to be debated peacefully. Dont come back and say hatefull words. Provide arguments favoring/against and let us see what comes out the best.
It has one main advantage. Those who completed masters and have job offer from US based company will get green cards immediately. Thats good enough. THose who dont have masters, will do masters and get the green card immediately (this take 2 years). This is better than waiting for life long on EB3...
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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 05-05-2010, 01:58 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kumarc123 View Post
Personally,
I believe USCIS will not be able to give amnesty to 11 million illegals, just because a potential law was passed. The distinction is between aptitude and capability, USCIS does not have the capability in terms of resources. They will need to clear the existing backlog to move to granting or abiding (when passed) to give citizenship to illegals.

USCIS director, had clearly stated they don't have the capability yet. Either way, we will benefit from all this.


Good luck!
I guess that is true. However, the moment the bill is passed all enforcements other than those at the border will have to stop. Everybody ilegally present essentially gets some sort of immunity awaiting their petition filing and aproval. Meanwhile as you said "maybe" we EB could potentially get a push forward. I guess, particularly, for the EB3 folks it might be a rish worth taking? rather than sitting and waiting?
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 05-05-2010, 03:47 PM
Donor
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Aug-08
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Quote:
Originally Posted by khodalmd View Post
In 1966 amnesty, Government estimated 1 to 1.5 millions illegals and actually 2.7 millions illegals got green card. Now Government is estimating 11 to 13 millions illegal and God knows how many will file for Green card, if CIR pass.

I truly don't have any idea how it affected Family based and Employment based legal immigrants. But I can tell you that it was pre-IT revolution era and there was practically no pressure on Employment Based immigration. Approval system was pretty straight than today's system. There was no issue of background check. Just one example, finger print/Biometric appointment at local service center would be nightmare, if amnesty pass!! Do you think USCIS will increase local service center by 15 times?

Current history indicates that if Government has more than 50% high case load, system breaks. Director of USCIS has also admitted on Congressional hearing also. Three examples of system failure
1. 245(i). Only 300K labors from illegals in April 2001 failed whole system
2. USCIS increased fees for Citizenship in 2007 and Citizenship application was substantially increased (little more than 50%) and system failed.
3. Congress mandated passport for Northern hemisphere countries travel (Earlier US Citizen not required passport to travel these countries) and all of sudden passport application was doubled, System failed. Media made big voice. It was citizen's issue so they have lot of God fathers. However it took more than 1 year to come out of this passport backlog.

I appreciate your positive attitude on efficiency of USCIS.
Sadly and unfortunately I have to agree with you completely. I wish what you said were not true but cannot be that blind to the facts. Even if you have everything done electronically there will still be tremendous chaos. Imagine the situation with eveything being on paper as it is now!! They will need superman/spiderman to work at the CIS. Many applications new and existing will be irrecoverably lost, transfered here and there or completely ignored (a very dangerous situation).
However, as somebody pointed out earlier, if the CIR is introduced and debated, maybe it will fail and the issues of EB could be passed?
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