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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 12-23-2009, 11:46 AM
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Default No Immigration Bill in 2010

Obama plans for health care delay, new jobs bill - - POLITICO.com

Excerpts from politico -

Internally, White House aides are plunging into a 2010 plan calling for an early focus on creating jobs, especially in the energy sector, along with starting a conversation about deficit reduction measures, the administration officials said.

Both will be major themes for his first State of the Union speech, which will likely take place on Jan. 26 or Feb. 2. White House aides are in the early stages of planning for the national address, but Obama will not only trumpet what he has described as his “B-plus” performance in 2009 but also set the stage for the 2010 congressional campaigns.

Obama and Democrats seem in agreement that they want to minimize the number of tough votes moderates in their party must take in the aftermath of the health care debate.

I think all of us can agree to the fact that immigration is one of the toughest vote for members of congress and looks like it is not going to happen in 2010 election year.
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Old 12-23-2009, 12:25 PM
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Default It may be the opposite

Actually the political situation for CIR may well be opposite. Whereas there are no supporter of health care bill in GOP, there are quite number of supporters of the CIR. GOP will not allow democrats take all the credit for CIR. The calculation is simple 12+ million future votes.
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 12-23-2009, 12:33 PM
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Default Wouldn't read too much into it

I wouldn't read too much into it - one way or the other. There has been a lot of effort by the Schumer-Lindsey team in the senate to work on a bi-partisan bill. This bill will the first serious salvo in opening the immigration debate. I guess only time will tell. Until then, I for one will keep my hopes up.

Andy Dufresne in letter to Red [Shawshank Redemption] "Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies."
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 12-23-2009, 12:54 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bikram_das_in View Post
Actually the political situation for CIR may well be opposite. Whereas there are no supporter of health care bill in GOP, there are quite number of supporters of the CIR. GOP will not allow democrats take all the credit for CIR. The calculation is simple 12+ million future votes.
I agree Bikram. There is support on both sides of the aisle for different components of CIR - Democrats for illegals and Republicans for legals. Again, Senate will be the key since there is a lot of opposition legalizing illegals. As long as the bill convinces a few moderate republicans, we should have a deal. Once the senate passes a bill, the House can take up a similar version and will pass it. The heat on congressmen would not be as much when they face November elections since the bill they passed in the House originated in the Senate.
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 12-23-2009, 03:34 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by sandy_anand View Post
I agree Bikram. There is support on both sides of the aisle for different components of CIR - Democrats for illegals and Republicans for legals. Again, Senate will be the key since there is a lot of opposition legalizing illegals. As long as the bill convinces a few moderate republicans, we should have a deal. Once the senate passes a bill, the House can take up a similar version and will pass it. The heat on congressmen would not be as much when they face November elections since the bill they passed in the House originated in the Senate.
"Again, Senate will be the key since there is a lot of opposition legalizing illegals"

Actually it is the House where immigration bills fail....senate is a lot easier for
immigration bills.

Senators are veteran politicians..most of them actually started as Congressmen...
by the time they become Senators (especially muti-term ones) they are corrupt
from the bribes of the corporate America and have long stopped listening to local people (or issues).

PS: that is why health care bill faces roadblock in Senate while it will be opposite in Senate for immigration bills.
and Gutirezz is a senator as well.

House members run on more grassroots issues where immigration plays a lot and therefore even health care bill passed
easily in Congress.

Hope this helps to understand US politics.
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Last edited by go_guy123; 12-23-2009 at 03:40 PM.
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 04-11-2010, 06:46 AM
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SL%% can only hope to improve
Default 2nd Presidential Term for Obama

IMHO, if CIR don't pass before the next presidential election, I think Obama should not even bother running for 2nd term.
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 04-11-2010, 10:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SL%% View Post
IMHO, if CIR don't pass before the next presidential election, I think Obama should not even bother running for 2nd term.
With health care passed, his second term is a done deal unless he screws up big time in the economy.
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 04-12-2010, 12:45 AM
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Default

Ah, Shawshank Redemption. There was another one on hope. I should add that as well for the completeness sake. It was again, Red to Andy:
Red: Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sandy_anand View Post
Andy Dufresne in letter to Red [Shawshank Redemption] "Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies."
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Old 05-05-2010, 03:32 AM
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Default

I don't think even this will get some good output to unemployeed people. As what you know the discrepencies happened in Health reform from Obama administration, the same is going to happen in Immigration bill.
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Old 05-05-2010, 09:40 AM
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Originally Posted by avatar View Post
I don't think even this will get some good output to unemployeed people. As what you know the discrepencies happened in Health reform from Obama administration, the same is going to happen in Immigration bill.
Can't believe you dug out this headliner, when IV is working hard to find solutions to the problems faced by this community!

Besides, cant understand what you are writing here - unemployment, health reform, immigration bill.

Be a part of IV solutions or go home.
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Old 05-05-2010, 10:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by i4u View Post
Can't believe you dug out this headliner, when IV is working hard to find solutions to the problems faced by this community!

Besides, cant understand what you are writing here - unemployment, health reform, immigration bill.

Be a part of IV solutions or go home.
Yes, I agree with you. Its better to join IV and help them in their efforts.
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Old 05-05-2010, 10:18 AM
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Let us imagine the CIR passed and became law. What then? Are we sure that the CIS/State dept is not going to waste anymore visas? Will the EB3 wait reduce? who and how will they handle the sudden influx of 11 million applications. The closer the bill gets to being passed the "Angels of the world" called "Attorneys" will be already starting to pile up their applications. Even the postal dept will be overloaded. It is going to be a disaster.

Here are a few benefits that I can see;
1) Treasury will immediately start seeing money coming in (tax/fees etc)
2) Ilegals will have some sort of paper and therefore access to the health care/other services.
3) Politicians will be laughing for a while
4) Attorneys will be celebrating for couple of decades

Cons;
1) I strogly feel that the EB3 and EB2 etc will remain the same or even get worse. A few might slip through particularly the ones with PD earlier than 2005-2006. This benefit will hapen during the early phase (couple of years at the most after the bill passes) prior to the system flooding.
2) Nobody will have time/resources to concentrate on the legals when you have 11 million applications flooding the system.
3) Corruption will creap into the state/CIS since they are now dealing with 11 million ilegals with so much complicated issues to prove their existance

I know EB3 folks have lost hope and are really hoping the the CIR will save them. If we take a look at the way the labor application is going (even H1b), starting 2009 the numbers have come down dramatically. This year there is going to be very little to almost none. Many employers are not applying anymore. So I believe within a few years (3-4) things will start clearing and the dates will move faster. With CIR and the 11 million applicants we are looking at a complete standstill or breakdown. The only thing that might happen is that the ilegals get some sort of paper with which they might be able to obtain drivers license etc.

Again this is just my opinion of the system based on how it has been working so far and the feeling that there will be a "love towards legals" is unfounded.
This opinion needs to be debated peacefully. Dont come back and say hatefull words. Provide arguments favoring/against and let us see what comes out the best.
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 05-05-2010, 12:47 PM
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There will be a delay in CIS process when they try to legalise 12 m illegal immigrants. But not so much. May be I140 may take 1 year instead of 4 months time and double the I485 time. It is not going to be a big deal compared to waiting time of 9 years. The reason is government will hire temporary workers to resolve the issue. You can check what happened in 1986. No unusual
delay due to legalization of illegal immigrants due to 1986 bill

Quote:
Originally Posted by khodalmd View Post
This is true. Unfortunately, some people will attack you for your bitter truth (I was attacked many time).
If CIR pass with mass amnesty,
It may help short time to EB legal until flood start. Once flood of illegal applicants starts, I can't image what will happen to EB legals !!
We are not learning from the history. Mini amnesty of 245(i) in 2001 (it has only around 300K illegal applicants) had literally collapsed labor system and EB3 India is not coming out of 2001 since last 5 years. Thousands of legal EB immigrants were trapped into BEC for many years and suffered unimaginable pain.
It would be practically impossible to fix damage of EB legal, if CIR pass with mass amnesty.
Be remember, pro-amnesty people do not have any love to EB legals otherwise they have not kept EB provision hostages since last 5 years. Many time, piece meal provisions for EB legals were about to pass but few pro-amnesty people have rudely block them!!

(PS : I do not have any personal interest. Whether CIR pass or not, it not going to affect me as personal level. However, I do care for EB3 I, who are waiting more than 8 years.)
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Old 05-05-2010, 12:56 PM
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Thumbs up Very True

Very true,
My friend people often to understand one's point, specially at the time of stress. I used to
have all greens, but some members gave me reds just because I expressed my opinion. It is sad but reality.



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Old 05-05-2010, 12:57 PM
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Very true,

My friend people often misunderstand one's point, specially at the time of stress. I used to have all greens, but some members gave me reds just because I expressed my opinion. It is sad but reality.



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