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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 12-07-2010, 12:45 PM
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Default December - Demand Data statistics Released

Please check this out!

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

We may see couple of weeks getting moved for EB2 and EB3 category in the Jan Visa Bulletin.
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 12-07-2010, 01:11 PM
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Looks like EB2 will be out of this mess soon (maybe 1.5 - 2 years ?). EB3 is doomed.
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 12-07-2010, 01:22 PM
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Default

tselva,
do you think EB2I will also move ahead by 2 weeks?
Looking at the demand data for December 2010 visa bulletin and January 2011 visa bulletin, there is only a difference of 25:

EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates
Month CY-2006 CY-2007 CY-2008 CY-2010
Jan-11 0 13125 22825 22925
Dec-10 0 13150 22850 23000

Source: EB2-I USCIS Data - Immigration Wiki
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 12-07-2010, 01:27 PM
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Default Rons Gotcher's take regarding the same

ImmInfo Newsletter: How bad is the India EB2 backlog? You may be pleasantly surprised.

How bad is the India EB2 backlog?
You may be pleasantly surprised.


The conventional Internet wisdom is that the India EB2 backlog is going to stretch out for many, many years and that applicants should abandon all hope. This is nonsense. The reality of the situation is that there is significant cause for optimism. This conclusion is based on an analysis of recent visa issuance, reporting of backlogs, and quite a bit of anecdotal evidence.

Let’s start with some raw numbers. For the month of December, the India EB2 cutoff date is May 8, 2006. In October of 2009, that cutoff date was April 1, 2004.

We have seen a steady decline in the numbers of India EB2 adjustment of status, according to the CIS:
May, 2009 47,728
Dec, 2009 40,022
Mar, 2010 39,081
May, 2010 38,974
Oct, 2010 24,254

These figures are specific to (a) India EB2, and (b) adjustment of status applications pending with the USICS. Note that there is an almost 50% reduction in the total number of petitions in the nearly year and a half between May, 2009 and October, 2010.

When we look at the numbers of visas actually issued, we see the following India EB2 adjustments and consular visas:

2008 14,806
2009 10,106

According to the Department of State, Visa Office, there the known demand for India EB2 visa numbers as of November 15, 2010 was 23,000 – down from 30,600 in mid-August, 2010. This current known demand number – 23,000 – is less than the actual number of annual visa issuances for India EB2 for the past two years: 24,912.

So, if demand is being reduced significantly, why has the Visa Office predicted that the India EB2 cutoff date will not likely move forward until next summer? The answer lies in the large numbers of India EB3 cases that have been and continue to be upgraded to EB2 classification. If there were no upgrade cases, the India EB2 cutoff date would likely move forward to the point where it would be somewhere in late 2010 or early 2011 by mid-2012.

A significant number of current India EB3 cases have either been upgraded to EB2, or are actively in the process of being upgraded. When an applicant with an existing EB3 priority date obtains a new EB2 approval, the applicant is entitled to use his or her old EB3 priority date for their new EB2 petition. This puts them on the EB2 waiting list ahead of people who filed EB2 petitions later. It is the surge of EB3 upgrades that appears to be the reason why the India EB2 cutoff date is not moving forward right now.

The good news is that this surge is temporary. The upgrade process has been going on for about a year and a half. It is probably safe to say that those who planned to upgrade have either done so already or are actively in the process of doing so now. As a practical matter, the surge is a temporary phenomenon that will likely come to an end soon. There are only a finite number of people who are eligible to upgrade and most of them have already acted.

When the surge subsides, we can expect to see the India EB2 cutoff date begin to advance again. When it does, we expect it to advance rapidly.

In the next issue, we will discuss why there is also reason for limited optimism for India EB3 applicants.


Copyright © 2010 Global Immigration Partners, Inc. - All Rights Reserved
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 12-07-2010, 01:59 PM
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Default

This is not making sense to me ?! If EB3I is upgrading to EB2 then why are the statistics above by OP not reflecting this ? EB3I still shows around 50,000+ applications which is about the same I have from about an year ago. Even if 4000 primary applications ported, it should translate to (*2.5) 10,000 applications now making the EB3I numbers 40,000+ correct ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by saketkapur View Post
ImmInfo Newsletter: How bad is the India EB2 backlog? You may be pleasantly surprised.

How bad is the India EB2 backlog?
You may be pleasantly surprised.


The conventional Internet wisdom is that the India EB2 backlog is going to stretch out for many, many years and that applicants should abandon all hope. This is nonsense. The reality of the situation is that there is significant cause for optimism. This conclusion is based on an analysis of recent visa issuance, reporting of backlogs, and quite a bit of anecdotal evidence.

Let’s start with some raw numbers. For the month of December, the India EB2 cutoff date is May 8, 2006. In October of 2009, that cutoff date was April 1, 2004.

We have seen a steady decline in the numbers of India EB2 adjustment of status, according to the CIS:
May, 2009 47,728
Dec, 2009 40,022
Mar, 2010 39,081
May, 2010 38,974
Oct, 2010 24,254

These figures are specific to (a) India EB2, and (b) adjustment of status applications pending with the USICS. Note that there is an almost 50% reduction in the total number of petitions in the nearly year and a half between May, 2009 and October, 2010.

When we look at the numbers of visas actually issued, we see the following India EB2 adjustments and consular visas:

2008 14,806
2009 10,106

According to the Department of State, Visa Office, there the known demand for India EB2 visa numbers as of November 15, 2010 was 23,000 – down from 30,600 in mid-August, 2010. This current known demand number – 23,000 – is less than the actual number of annual visa issuances for India EB2 for the past two years: 24,912.

So, if demand is being reduced significantly, why has the Visa Office predicted that the India EB2 cutoff date will not likely move forward until next summer? The answer lies in the large numbers of India EB3 cases that have been and continue to be upgraded to EB2 classification. If there were no upgrade cases, the India EB2 cutoff date would likely move forward to the point where it would be somewhere in late 2010 or early 2011 by mid-2012.

A significant number of current India EB3 cases have either been upgraded to EB2, or are actively in the process of being upgraded. When an applicant with an existing EB3 priority date obtains a new EB2 approval, the applicant is entitled to use his or her old EB3 priority date for their new EB2 petition. This puts them on the EB2 waiting list ahead of people who filed EB2 petitions later. It is the surge of EB3 upgrades that appears to be the reason why the India EB2 cutoff date is not moving forward right now.

The good news is that this surge is temporary. The upgrade process has been going on for about a year and a half. It is probably safe to say that those who planned to upgrade have either done so already or are actively in the process of doing so now. As a practical matter, the surge is a temporary phenomenon that will likely come to an end soon. There are only a finite number of people who are eligible to upgrade and most of them have already acted.

When the surge subsides, we can expect to see the India EB2 cutoff date begin to advance again. When it does, we expect it to advance rapidly.

In the next issue, we will discuss why there is also reason for limited optimism for India EB3 applicants.


Copyright © 2010 Global Immigration Partners, Inc. - All Rights Reserved
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 12-07-2010, 02:16 PM
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Default

Satyasrd sounds correct. I guess the EB3 community is porting big time to EB2, and the goofy USCIS stats dont make much sense by themselves.
IMHO dont expect any miracles by Oct 2011 VB. At max it will move to May 2007 by that time. Thats still a good 4 and a half years to current. Even at that time any sane guy would term that category (EB2) as "heavily backlogged"!!
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 12-07-2010, 02:23 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tselva View Post
Please check this out!

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

We may see couple of weeks getting moved for EB2 and EB3 category in the Jan Visa Bulletin.
May be couple of months movement.

Thanks

MC
__________________
Finally 485 Approved on -- 05/04/2011
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 12-07-2010, 02:30 PM
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Default Guys read the fine print in the end

Notes:
- All totals are approximate values
- Categories not listed are "current"
- Data as of December 7, 2010
The imposition of cut-off dates for some categories/countries has limited the amount of applicants who have
been able to file for adjustment of status with USCIS and such applicants would not be included in the above
totals. In addition, new applicants are constantly becoming eligible for processing in categories for which cutoff
dates do not apply or are "upgrading" their petition to a new category. Therefore, the above totals should
not be interpreted to reflect the total universe of applicant demand. These totals only represent the amount of
demand which was taken into consideration during the determination of the monthly cut-off dates.
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  #9 (permalink)  
Old 12-07-2010, 04:00 PM
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Default very good analysis

All pending data is for I 485. not for I 140. If some one upgrades then it will be only supporting letter not new I 485. so how come USCIS will get duplicate I 485 for same person after upgrade ? What a analysis !!! and all these rapid advance talk is preparation for annual spill over.


Here is my analysis :

(1) Oct - Date will be slow ( because of porting , pending cases in diff corners of county etc..)

(2) Jan - Date will advance slowly - chances of future movement is high. USCIS is not doing good job

(3) May - Date will move surely

(4) June - Sep - I am hero. I predicted date will move and it did.

Bottom line is India get whatever 10 - 20 k quota for Eb2 and it reduce that many app from Eb2 - Eb3 ( porting cases ).

Last edited by gc_on_demand; 12-07-2010 at 04:04 PM.
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  #10 (permalink)  
Old 12-07-2010, 07:59 PM
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Default What is demand data?

What does demand data mean?
Is it pending filed 485
Approved labor and/or approved 140
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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 12-07-2010, 08:02 PM
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Default Documetarily Qualified

That data represents documentarily qualified applications that are ready to be processed, only waiting for the visa number. In other words, pending 485 that are ready to be approved.
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 12-07-2010, 09:42 PM
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Default

The imminfo reasoning is suspect. CIS looks at the EB3 file to associate an earlier priority date with the new EB2 app. At that point, it becomes one case, since there is only one surviving 485 application.
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 12-08-2010, 10:26 AM
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Default

Is there any way to find out how many EB3 have ported to EB2?
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  #14 (permalink)  
Old 12-08-2010, 07:24 PM
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Default I am not getting this.

Help me out people - I am dumb (EB3).

This PDF shows worldwide cumulative EB2 demand of 33000 till 12/31/2009. Does this mean EB2 cutoff will move almost to 2009 end by end of 2011 USCIS year? Approximately 30000 visa numbers should be available at this point?

Understand that there might be some more filings and some EB3 folks jumping in, but other than that is EB2 in such good shape?

What am I missing here?

Thanks for response in advance.
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  #15 (permalink)  
Old 12-09-2010, 10:25 AM
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Default

EB2 I is in pretty good shape - in a couple of years they will be current. EB3 - I does not look well at all as the spillovers will be benefiting ROW first before India/China gets it.

Country cap elimination will allow for FIFO, which will benefit India / China (technically speaking, the people who have waited the most!).
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