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  #451 (permalink)  
Old 07-14-2009, 09:38 PM
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Default Nice job

Based on the information you provided, it is very much possible to accumulate the kind of savings to pay off for the properties in India and buy a house here. You did the right thing by setting up a cushion / back up plan before purchasing a house in Houston. Sugarland is a great place to buy a home and good luck with everything.

Bottom line...it's not how much you make, it's how much you save that matters.....

Vijay
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  #452 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2009, 12:26 AM
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Default high end denial and fantasy

this is a good article ... talks about high end homes and in places like SFO (and maybe NY etc) ...homeowners / speculators are planning to rent their house for a year in the hopes that things will be better.
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry...ansions-2009-6
----------------------
Why in the world would there be such an overwhelming sense of hope among the mid-to-high end homeowners that the prices of expensive homes would come roaring back? If not for interest only loans, Pay Option ARMs, stated income and 100% HELOCs the mid-to-high end would have never got there in the first place.

Two years ago, a household income of $100k a year could legitimately buy an $800k home with almost nothing down and afford the payments using a Pay Option ARM. Now to buy the same house, you need $160k down and an income of $200k a year. The $800k home went from the majority being able to afford it, to only a few. Remember, in the upper price bands most have to sell a home for the down payment and debt-to-income ratios required for a new loan.

Even in San Francisco City , long thought to be safe-haven for house prices, owners are resorting to renting. A savvy money manager and real estate investor I know sent me this note yesterday I thought was worthy of sharing. He has been scouting properties for an associate moving to town from NYC.

“Mark, I walked through a beautiful home in Pac Heights yesterday. Was listed at $6M about a month and a half ago. Price has been cut three times now and it currently listed at $4.95M. The amazing part is that the owner is now trying to rent it for one year (and I quote the agent) “and then sell it when the market comes back.”

When I asked her what made her think the market would come back when rates were going higher, availability of credit was down, incomes were down, unemployment was up and willingness and availability of people to spend was down, she had no answer.

Even more amazing was that we looked at four places in a similar price range and almost all of them had a similar strategy…”rent it out for a year and then sell when things get better”…

All these high-end people think they’ll just keep burning through capital and that everything will self-correct in 12-months and then go right back to the idiotic pricing levels that they themselves were crazy enough to pay.

Are people really this clueless???? (that was rhetorical so no need to answer…)… J
... Looking at median household incomes in every mid-to-high end area in [California], I come up with the same conclusion…the mid-to-high housing bands are still 33% to 50% overvalued on average.

Bottom Line - I don’t remember ever seeing such a massive supply of quality SFR’s for rent in CA. Rents are falling fast. Why in the world would someone want to put down $500k cash and make payments greater than that of rent in order to buy in a falling market? Prices have much further to go on the downside.
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  #453 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2009, 12:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vijju123 View Post
Based on the information you provided, it is very much possible to accumulate the kind of savings to pay off for the properties in India and buy a house here. You did the right thing by setting up a cushion / back up plan before purchasing a house in Houston. Sugarland is a great place to buy a home and good luck with everything.

Bottom line...it's not how much you make, it's how much you save that matters.....

Vijay

Thanks a lot !!! Vijay and bajrangbali....
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  #454 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2009, 12:40 AM
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Originally Posted by hiralal View Post
...homeowners / speculators are planning to rent their house for a year in the hopes that things will be better..

Reminds me of those who bought Tech stocks at the peak in 2000 and when the market crashed they held them in a hope that they will sell when they break even.(Some are holding till now!)... The prices never got to 2000 Peak even after 2003 to 2007 stock market rally, despite inflation and housing bubble.
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  #455 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2009, 12:55 AM
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Default world runs on economics - what do economists think about housing

SK ..I agree ..here is another small section which contains the thoughts and predictions by well known economists and economic institutes. it is around a month old article but it has predictions for next few years..all points are important and hence I am not using red fonts
Fitch Ratings article is latest and is pasted down below ..
-----------------
* April 2009: The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index fell 18.1% y/y in April 2009 after declining 18.7% y/y in March. The m/m pace of decline in April was slower than in March for 19 cities, while 13 of 20 cities covered in the survey showed an improvement in the y/y return in April. (S&P)
* As of April 2009, average home prices are at similar levels to what they were in mid-2003. From the peak in mid-2006, the 10-City Composite is down 33.6% and the 20-City Composite is down 32.6%.(S&P)
* Blitzer: "We are entering the seasonally strong period in the housing market, so it will take some time to determine if a recovery is really here." (S&P)
* Q1 2009: The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index recorded an 19.1% decline in Q1 2009, largest in the series' history. This has increased from the annual declines of 18.2% and 16.6%, reported for the Q4 and Q3 2008, respectively. (S&P)
* March 2009: The FHFA Monthly Home Price Index fell 1.1% in March after unexpectedly rising in January and February. The index is down 7.3% y/y and 11% below it's peak in April 2007. The FHFA purchase-only Home Price Index fell 0.5% in Q12009, after falling a record 3.3% in Q42008 and is down 7.1% y/y.(FHFA)
* RGE Monitor: based on a range of indicators (real home price index by Shiller 2006, price rent ratio and price/income ratio) the fall in home prices from their peak will reach 44%. Inventories persist at an all time high, while starts might be close to a bottom and will likely move sideways for some time, it is the demand side that has to pick up to reabsorb inventories. As long as demand remains weak and inventories high, downward pressures on prices will continue
* Fitch (via Calculated Risk): expecting home prices to decline by an average of 25 percent in real terms at the national level over the next five years, starting from the Q2 2008
* Wachovia:the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-city composite index will fall 28.6% on a peak-to-trough basis. OFHEO purchase only index will decline around 22%
* IMF: the baseline scenario for the U.S. economy assumes a 14–22% drop in house prices during 2007–08
* PMI Group: U.S. home price declines will probably double to a national average of 20 percent by next year, with lower values most likely in metropolitan areas in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada
* Krugman: My preferred metric is the ratio of home prices to rental rates. By that measure, average home prices nationally got way too high. We'll probably basically retrace all that. So that's about a 25% decline in overall home prices (CNN)
* Davis, Lehnert and Martin: prices would have to fall 15% over five years - assuming rents rose 4% a year - to bring rent/price ratio back to its long-term average
* Goldman Sachs (Calculated Risk): Home prices to fall 15% w/o recession and 30% in case of a recession
* Shiller: home prices to fall up to 50% in some areas
* The FHFA HPI covers both purchase and refinance transactions, while the S&P Case Shiller Indexes only use purchase transactions. The HPI only includes conventional mortgages sold/ guaranteed by GSEs while the S&P Case Shiller indexes also include non-agency mortgages.
----------------------------------
Fitch Ratings said Thursday that it had enhanced its U.S. residential mortgage loss mode ... Fitch’s revisions suggest ... a very bearish take on housing prices over the next five years: Fitch said in its report that it is expecting home prices to decline by an average of 25 percent in real terms at the national level over the next five years, starting from the second quarter of 2008.

And that’s the base case scenario.
...
Fitch will also roll out new 25 MSA-level risk factors influencing frequency of foreclosure and loss severity estimates, the agency said; the 25 MSAs chosen are those that have exhibited strong non-conforming mortgage lending activity in the past.

“Some MSAs such as San Diego and San Francisco, CA are expected to experience home price declines by as much as 47 percent and 33 percent over the next five years, while home prices in MSAs such as San Antonio, TX are expected to appreciate by 7 percent,” [Huxley Somerville, group managing director and head of Fitch’s U.S. RMBS group said].

It's important to note these are real prices - adjusted for inflation. A 7% increase in 5 years, with 3% inflation per year, is a nominal price decline of about 8%.

Last edited by hiralal; 07-15-2009 at 09:17 AM.
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  #456 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2009, 01:35 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bajrangbali;
you should have bought when the kids were 2+yrs...but never too late
bajrangbali is one the those guy who takes 2+ years to bankruptcy court , parent who does not think about financial position but provides a dream environment to kids(typical american dream)with zero dollars in bank account.

Chils3 was moving all around the country when his kids were 2+years, you have no idea how much he was making.

Do you have any finance backup or all your cards are maxed out?

beware of bajrangbali, he may ask you to send donation check very soon...

Last edited by 21stIcon; 07-15-2009 at 08:15 AM.
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  #457 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2009, 11:40 AM
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Originally Posted by chil3 View Post
I have $7200 PM take home average salary since last four years .....luckily we lived in states like MI and delaware where the rent was $750-$800...all the expenses whatever you can think of were not more than $1500 ...insurance paid by employer and of course we did not have expensive vacations apart from drivable distances of 200 miles...

Only in our last purchase I had to put my savings which I did before coming to US..$25000.....

My question was looking at my assets, my current and future savings how good my decision is to buy the house seeing the economic scenerio... ...the money I saved is not a miracle
If you close before 12/1, you will quality for the $8k first time homebuyer credit. Your salary is under $150K (if file jointly) so you'll get the full amount. After closing, file 1040x with form 5405 (I just did). Of course you can file with your 2009 return but be aware that any bonus or severance may push your MAGI above $150K.
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  #458 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2009, 01:54 PM
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May not be a fair comparison.
In those boom days many companies just floated companies to cash on the boom with no business model. At the end of the day Stock is just a piece of paper.

But in case of a home, it is a real asset ..So irrespective of how the price swings you have something real in hand to show for the money you spent. If you bought a home to live i.e. primary residence and not as an investment to make money i don't think you would sweat too much.

Once again i feel, We or the leaf nodes or working class are just pawns who are being manipulated by market forces way above us (too rich too powerful). They feed us data they want us to believe so that it suits them. We basically do what they expect us to do thereby helping them to become more rich and powerful. Its a vicious cycle. I wont be surprised if there is a new event or Black Swan (as puddonhead said) where dramatically everything changes and honestly wont be shocked if home prices again go up to where they were. Maybe Zen and said too many times, LIVE IN THE PRESENT, LIVE WITHIN YOUR MEANS, DONT BE TOO GREEDY .

Also Dont try or waste your time predicting the future or basically fall into trying to predict what the rich and powerful want you to predict.








Quote:
Originally Posted by sk2006 View Post
Reminds me of those who bought Tech stocks at the peak in 2000 and when the market crashed they held them in a hope that they will sell when they break even.(Some are holding till now!)... The prices never got to 2000 Peak even after 2003 to 2007 stock market rally, despite inflation and housing bubble.
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  #459 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2009, 03:52 PM
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Originally Posted by suavesandeep View Post
May not be a fair comparison.
In those boom days many companies just floated companies to cash on the boom with no business model. At the end of the day Stock is just a piece of paper.
What do you think about Japan real estate since 1990's?
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  #460 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2009, 04:27 PM
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If you ask me US is exactly doing the same thing Japan did in 1990's so, So "IF" they continue doing the same. I would expect to see the same results i.e Home prices will stay flat or progressively slowly go down for the next 10 years. Unemployment will be high and again stay flat.

The important thing to note is "IF" ...I do not know for sure how US policies will play out in the next 10 years OR what Black Swan event will happen.

So i do not want to plan my life based on future events i am not sure of i.e. Wait for 10 or N years which will keep changing going forward (Aint getting younger and life is short ). I am in my early thirties and i have a 1 yr old kid, So as of now i am not in a rush to buy..But i plan to buy a home within my means before my kid starts going to school. Basically what i wanted to emphasize is i wont be trying to time the market, I will buy when i strongly need it and i can afford it (haven't saved enough yet), And will make sure that i pay whatever the current fair market price is at that given point like i do when i buy anything.


Quote:
Originally Posted by 21stIcon View Post
What do you think about Japan real estate since 1990's?
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  #461 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2009, 04:57 PM
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Lightbulb US Not Going Down Japan's Road

From: US Not Going Down Japan's Road | Pacific Capital Associates

Opposite Policy Constraints
It is widely understood and agreed upon that substantially increasing the amount of money in the economy will eventually lead to inflation. Yet the Japanese authorities did not take this course. Did they not think to even try it? Did it just never come up at any Bank of Japan meeting for an entire decade?

We think a more plausible explanation stems from the fact that Japan was a nation of savers. Forcing up inflation via broad currency debasement would have harmed Japanese voters by undermining the purchasing power of their savings. As a result, accepting the mild (if lengthy) deflation was likely a more politically viable option than flooding the economy with money.

While bad for savers, inflation is good for debtors because it reduces the purchasing power-adjusted burden of debt. Here in the United States, the authorites face exactly the opposite constraints as those faced in Japan in the 1990s. Our nation is highly indebted and has a low savings rate. In this situation, deflation is a lot more painful than inflation. Politics demanded that Japan avoid inflation - and politics now demand that the United States embrace it.

Whatever the reason, it's very clear that the policy response being pursued by the US is vastly different from what took place after Japan's credit bust. Those predicting a repeat of the Japanese experience should take note.
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  #462 (permalink)  
Old 07-16-2009, 09:39 AM
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US is not Japan but housing is in bad shape. there is so much muck that things will be bad till 2011 and beyond.
--------------------------------------------
July 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. foreclosure filings hit a record in the first half, a sign that job losses and falling property prices deepened the housing recession, according to RealtyTrac Inc.

More than 1.5 million properties received a default or auction notice or were seized by banks in the six months through June, the Irvine, California-based seller of default data said today in a statement. That’s a 15 percent increase from the year earlier. One in 84 U.S. households received a filing.

“People are losing their jobs, seeing their income go down and are underwater on their mortgage,” Richard Green, director of the Lusk Center for Real Estate at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, said in an interview. “It’s a toxic combination.”


Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas dropped 18.1 percent in April from a year earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. The unemployment rate rose to 9.5 percent in June, the highest since 1983, bringing the total number of lost jobs to about 6.5 million since the recession started in December 2007, the Labor Department said.

Defaults by subprime borrowers with poor credit histories spurred the housing recession and spread to prime borrowers as home prices and sales declined. The Mortgage Bankers Association said May 28 that prime fixed-rate home loans to the most creditworthy borrowers accounted for 29 percent of new foreclosures in the first quarter, the biggest share of any type of loan.

One in eight Americans is now late on a payment or already in foreclosure, the Washington-based mortgage group said.

California, Florida Lead

Twenty of the 50 U.S. counties with the highest foreclosure rates were in California and 12 were in Florida, RealtyTrac said.

Clark County, Nevada, home to Las Vegas, had the highest rate in the nation with one in 13 households receiving a filing, according to RealtyTrac.

“I don’t see any turning of the tide,” said Donald Haurin, an economics professor at Ohio State University in Columbus. “The effect of more foreclosures will be continued downward pressure on house prices, and lead to difficulty making mortgage payments that are continuing to reset.”

Payment-option adjustable rate mortgages will contribute to higher defaults, said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of RealtyTrac. Option ARMs allow borrowers to pay less than the interest they owe each month, tacking on the difference to their total debt and creating the potential for bigger bills in the future.

Option ARMs

About three quarters of those loans will adjust to require higher payments next year and in 2011, with the peak coming in August 2011
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  #463 (permalink)  
Old 07-16-2009, 12:05 PM
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As i said earlier, I placed offers recently on couple of REO homes at little over asking price and i was over bid by others. I experienced multiple offer situation and seems lot many buyer are there in the market as well. These home are currently listed as 40% down from the last sale (peek) price.

You and lot many friends here seem to capture a lot of information from news. The information that you gave talks about the foreclosure.

Could you also capture information about how many homes are sold/brought in CA or Bay Area in particular in this market? This will give us some more information about how the buyer markets are doing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hiralal View Post
US is not Japan but housing is in bad shape. there is so much muck that things will be bad till 2011 and beyond.
--------------------------------------------
July 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. foreclosure filings hit a record in the first half, a sign that job losses and falling property prices deepened the housing recession, according to RealtyTrac Inc.

More than 1.5 million properties received a default or auction notice or were seized by banks in the six months through June, the Irvine, California-based seller of default data said today in a statement. That’s a 15 percent increase from the year earlier. One in 84 U.S. households received a filing.

Last edited by dreamworld; 07-16-2009 at 12:07 PM.
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  #464 (permalink)  
Old 07-16-2009, 12:12 PM
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dreamworld,

Do not expect anything from fear mongers on this forum, they will do everything possible to make you think and do as them. They have no real experience of the market and all their so called knowledge comes from sitting on their couches and reading the news. I had also asked a similar question on this forum sometime back - I want to know how many of those guys posting 100s of articles by copying-and-pasting here are from CA, NY, FL, Detroit. I didn't get the answer. You will not get an answer either.

I have stopped posting on this thread as much as I did before. It's useless discussing with people that just copy-paste articles.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamworld View Post
As i said earlier, I placed offers recently on couple of REO homes at little over asking price and i was over bid by others. I experienced multiple offer situation and seems lot many buyer are there in the market as well. These home are currently listed as 40% down from the last sale (peek) price.

You and lot many friends here seem to capture a lot of information from news. The information that you gave talks about the foreclosure.

Could you also capture information about how many homes are sold/brought in CA or Bay Area in particular in this market? This will give us some more information about how the buyer markets are doing.

Last edited by sledge_hammer; 07-16-2009 at 12:34 PM.
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  #465 (permalink)  
Old 07-16-2009, 02:24 PM
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Originally Posted by sledge_hammer View Post
dreamworld,

Do not expect anything from fear mongers on this forum, they will do everything possible to make you think and do as them. They have no real experience of the market and all their so called knowledge comes from sitting on their couches and reading the news. I had also asked a similar question on this forum sometime back - I want to know how many of those guys posting 100s of articles by copying-and-pasting here are from CA, NY, FL, Detroit. I didn't get the answer. You will not get an answer either.

I have stopped posting on this thread as much as I did before. It's useless discussing with people that just copy-paste articles.
There you go dishing the news and facts. You want to live in your make believe world, fine with me. Don't complain here...
If you want answers move from the couche and research. Don't be lazy and then expect us to do your research. We are not here serving your needs. This is a forum to exchange information what we come across..
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