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Analysis Discussion This forum is used to analyze, predict, track and share the information about the progress of visa dates, visa bulletin and application status of individual cases.

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2010, 09:54 AM
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EB2
I140 Mailed Date
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Default Sep 2010 Demand data is out and stay tuned for visa bulletin

Demand data for sep 2010 is out..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Does any one has last month demand data ?
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2010, 10:00 AM
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Priority Date
:
Jan-10
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
07/20/2010
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:
India
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I-485
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:
04/20/2012
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Default does this mean EB2 is moving to 2007 ??

for EB2 China/India, the number for calender Year 2006 is "0". and the foot note reads "Categories not listed are "current"...

does this mean we are entering 2007 for EB2 as some predicted.
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2010, 10:04 AM
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Default means no demand for 2005

Quote:
Originally Posted by praveenuppaluri View Post
for EB2 China/India, the number for calender Year 2006 is "0". and the foot note reads "Categories not listed are "current"...

does this mean we are entering 2007 for EB2 as some predicted.
its for prior to 2006.Its good news for people with PD prior to 2005 that USCIS thinks that they will be able to issue GC for all of them before Sep 30th. Some one posted that for Sep we have same or little more visa number available as Aug. then date will move till July 2006. not much reduction from aug to sep .. about 6-7k we got in aug.
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2010, 10:06 AM
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Priority Date
:
Jun-08
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:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/26/2009
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:
India
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:
I-485
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:
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Thumbs up Great One

This is great news..

If the spillover is >20K Dates will move into 2007,

More, if the DOS/USCIS wants new 485 then well into 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_on_demand View Post
Demand data for sep 2010 is out..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Does any one has last month demand data ?
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2010, 10:10 AM
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:
03/18/2010
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Romania
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Default

It's looks like EB-3 ROW wil jump a year from 2004 into 2005!!!

Also EB-2 India will go in 2007!!!

I think a lot of people will be celebrating tomorrow.

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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2010, 10:20 AM
Donor
Priority Date
:
Feb-08
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:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
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Default Stop Calculations

We need to stop calculations and start spreading the word for action items. One such out there is for filing I485 when PD is not current.

Pls spread the word among friends..
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2010, 10:21 AM
Donor
Priority Date
:
Dec-06
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
08/11/2007
Chargeability
:
India
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:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/11/2007
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by praveenuppaluri View Post
for EB2 China/India, the number for calender Year 2006 is "0". and the foot note reads "Categories not listed are "current"...

does this mean we are entering 2007 for EB2 as some predicted.
Here is my interpretation of the data:

There are 23,205 pending applications for the year 2006 (as the column is titled "prior to"). So if the SOFAD numbers are going to be in the range of 23,205, then entire EB2 for 2006 will be cleared.

Going by the numbers being estimated by some of the esteemed members in the other thread, 23,205 SOFAD might be in the range of possibility, but I am not raising my hopes.
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2010, 10:36 AM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Dec-05
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
04/20/2006
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:
India
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:
08/01/2007
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Cool

This is indeed good news for all PDs before 2006, but I doubt it will cross 2006 for Aug

When I compared the data from April 2010 and Sept 2010

The overflow is as the following:

EB2 (for prior CY2007)
China - 5850,
India - 21800....
Total Overflow - 27650


EB3 (for prior to CY2003)
China - 1875,
India -1250
Mexico - (this is wierd, since applications went up by - 905)
Phillipines - 1150 (prior to CY 2005)
Attached Files
File Type: pdf EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates042010.pdf (156.1 KB, 146 views)
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  #9 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2010, 10:39 AM
Donor
Priority Date
:
Jan-06
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
03/01/2006
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/01/2007
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Default Let us work on Action Items

Quote:
Originally Posted by vbkris77 View Post
We need to stop calculations and start spreading the word for action items. One such out there is for filing I485 when PD is not current.

Pls spread the word among friends..
I agree with Vbkris77. Members please help people who are not able to file for 485.
IV wants to show USCIS that there are a lot of people who are suffering. We know that there are lot of people out there. Let us find them together.
.4 person from 1 already existing members will give us 10000 people who are waiting.
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  #10 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2010, 10:43 AM
Donor
Priority Date
:
Dec-06
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
08/11/2007
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:
India
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:
I-485
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:
08/11/2007
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GCHope2011 View Post
Here is my interpretation of the data:

There are 23,205 pending applications for the year 2006 (as the column is titled "prior to"). So if the SOFAD numbers are going to be in the range of 23,205, then entire EB2 for 2006 will be cleared.

Going by the numbers being estimated by some of the esteemed members in the other thread, 23,205 SOFAD might be in the range of possibility, but I am not raising my hopes.
Further Analysis:

SOFAD Cut-off Date
23205 Jan 1, 2007
20,590 Dec 1, 2006
18,137 Nov 1, 2006
15,589 Oct 1, 2006
13,009 Sep 1, 2006

I think Teddy's, Q's. Rao's and others estimate pretty much 15K SOFAD to be certain. Which means that Sep-2006 will surely clear out.

The rest of 2006 will really depend on the magnitude of additional SOFAD (beyond the 15 K).

And finally - this is the reason why I had said that I was keeping my expectations in check in my previous post. There is no reason for me to get reds for that - as you can see in the table above.
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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2010, 11:44 AM
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Default Sep bulletin

i guess the VB is coming out today. anybody know what time? i'm hung-up on this VB as i'm Oct 06 eb2.
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2010, 11:52 AM
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Jan-09
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EB2
I140 Mailed Date
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03/22/2010
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Default

I agree with vbkrish77 .. please spread word about polling on "Filing I485 when PD is not current" @ http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/fo...ther-here.html
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2010, 11:59 AM
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:
Aug-04
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GCHope2011 View Post
Further Analysis:

SOFAD Cut-off Date
23205 Jan 1, 2007
20,590 Dec 1, 2006
18,137 Nov 1, 2006
15,589 Oct 1, 2006
13,009 Sep 1, 2006

I think Teddy's, Q's. Rao's and others estimate pretty much 15K SOFAD to be certain. Which means that Sep-2006 will surely clear out.

The rest of 2006 will really depend on the magnitude of additional SOFAD (beyond the 15 K).

And finally - this is the reason why I had said that I was keeping my expectations in check in my previous post. There is no reason for me to get reds for that - as you can see in the table above.


I am not really sure I follow your numbers. But looking at the pending numbers just for India between March 2006 to Sept 2006, there are abot 11K applications. As per the Demand Data there are additional 6K that are current and pending.
There were approx between 6 and 8K visas that were issued for India and about 12K in the last two months.
Looking at the calculations that were done earlier, if we assume that there are 20K SOFAD numbers, we are looking at only about 7K left to issue for this year. Taking the 6K pending plus the numbers from March 06, I am leaning to the cut off for Sept 10 bulletin being March/April 2006. This is also in line with DoS projections two months ago.
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  #14 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2010, 12:04 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by aksaharan View Post
I agree with vbkrish77 .. please spread word about polling on "Filing I485 when PD is not current" @ http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/fo...ther-here.html
I do not think that DoS or USCIS will agree to this. The last time they messed up, there was a huge fallout. This time around, they know the pending numbers and will be very cautious by moving the dates. They cannot move the dates for EB2 alone. They will have to do so for EB3 too. And when that happens, July 2007 repeats itself.
To get a grip on the number of applications that are eligible to file for 485, USCIS was planning on implementing a process where you have to register to indicate you want to file a 485. They are going to use those numbers to move the dates. Dont know what happened to that move.

So, rather than waste your efforts in trying to get USCIS/DoS to budge, work towards a comprehensive solution by lobbying for a change in law.
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  #15 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2010, 12:20 PM
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Oct-07
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Unhappy

In the last month (August) the demand data was as follow :

Employee 2nd preference :

Cummulative
demand
prior to China India Others Grand Total
2006 525 3175 0 3700
2007 8275 21600 25 29900
2008 13675 30500 75 44250
2010 13775 30600 200 44575

Employee 3rd preference :

Cummulative
demand
prior to China India Mexico Philippines Other Grand Total
2002 0 500 400 0 150 1050
2003 25 8350 675 25 175 9250
2004 1300 20350 1375 425 2475 25925
2005 3900 34725 2500 1750 9400 52275
2006 5525 44100 3625 5575 24775 83600
2007 6700 55025 5050 17500 44875 129150
2010 7250 59175 5725 19925 52775 144850

From the supply data I do not get much.
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