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Analysis Discussion This forum is used to analyze, predict, track and share the information about the progress of visa dates, visa bulletin and application status of individual cases.

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Old 10-10-2010, 09:58 PM
Priority Date
I140 Mailed Date
Processing Stage
I485 Mailed Date
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 35
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Default EB2 INDIA POST MAY'2006 Analysis, estimate and Prediction

For 2011 EB2 without spillover
China: August'2006 and India: May'2006
Monthly ~250 allocation is not good enough to cover pending cases prior to May 2006. prior to May'2006 no.of pending cases are close to 2700 cases, so this year quota is good enough to clear these pending cases. With porting we may also see Unavailable down the time.

This leaves for 2006 pending cases
China - 2950
India - 11800 . total ~15K
If we get spill over of 14K then EB2 India & China will move to 2007. Do we get 14K spillover for current year is Big ?

Pending Cases Till August'2007
India 9809 and china 5714 total 15,500

Below is PERM Data from Sept'2008 to October'2009 Analysis courtesy by Vedu in another forum
I exported PERM 2008 and PERM 2009 files in excel, then removed the denied and withdrawn cases from those files. Next, I used some filters to find out the exact numbers. Here is what I get:

October 2007 to September 2008
Certified cases: India-7197 and China-1210
Certified-Expired cases: India- 9371 and China-2118

October 2008 to September 2009
Certified cases: India- 6403 and China - 1090
Certified-Expired: India-4984 and China-1022

Spill Over Analysis:
for this we need to consider EB1, Eb2 and Eb5 Quota which is 90K+

EB1 Pending at the beging ofthe year: 7595
Eb2 Row Pending: 8859
Eb5 Pending: 23
Eb2 India & China Quota will be utilized fully : 5600
Total 22,077 so 90K-22K = 68K available for 2011 for categories. EB1, EB5 & ROW EB2
Spill Over Estimate is 68K - EB1, EB5 & Row EB2 estimate. this estimate is diff task & Key.
Pls share if any one able to throw light on this???????

Also India EB3 to EB2 Porting cases estimate is another factor as china EB3 will move to 2006 not much porting expected from china.
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