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  #991 (permalink)  
Old 10-12-2015, 04:42 PM
shv shv is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bcci View Post
With all due respect how can USCIS/DHD/DOS can see the certain visibility of the pending inventory vs. demand and publish the dates on 9/9? How come same agencies changed their visibility factor and reversed the VB on 9/25? They didn't even received the applications yet so how come they predicted (Visibility)? based on your points they should have some data in first place to publish dates, isn't it? So, what changed? I still believe they are worried about workload and handling 30k applications to issue EAD/AP with in the time frame. Please be noted it is not one time thing as we may not receive GC in next two years so EAD/AP renewals will also be at the same time (after 2 years) which may be time consuming for them. I thought they will slowly move the filing dates 2 months for each bulletin and reach July 1 2011 by Sep 16. To my surprise last bulletin was ditto to October. Lot of IFs and BUTs
They will answer the question as to why they revised VB. I don't believe that they were worried with processing 30k applications. The AD concept they came up with is to better predict & estimate in future and to have visibility and also not to retrogress the filing dates. As per argument, One thing is for sure they cannot allot more visas in a fiscal year and cannot go beyond the country limits, with my calculation I think only 219 visas available per month per country i.e., per year it comes 2626 visas per fiscal year excluding SO, hence there is no way to to give 30-50k visas + dependants = 90-150k visas in a fiscal year.

Whatever the earlier calculation they made they are claiming that DOS came up with numbers on Sep 9th and DHS intervened after looking at the numbers and they decided to rollback on Sep 25th, whatever the mistake they did they made a blunder and also there is no communication they made public on the issue or vb AD intro/revising it.
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  #992 (permalink)  
Old 10-12-2015, 04:59 PM
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Default Disagree

You missing the whole point of the famous "Spill Over" concept. If the spill over is around 19,000 or 1,000 what ever it might be, they have to build the inventory for sure to pre adjudicate as it takes 6-8 months cases to meet next year demand. They can't simply move the dates based on monthly allocation which will be huge disaster. High probability of Visa Wastage. Again, I am not at good at this but my gut tells me that 07/2011 is not far off based on previous year FB/EB2ROW spill over to EB2I. Previous years (5 years) trend for EB2I is about anywhere from 17k to 23k. This might be the reason for big jump.
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  #993 (permalink)  
Old 10-12-2015, 06:12 PM
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Let’s us not make our discussion go circular on SO, EB1 Demand, Porting, Unknown Variables. My post was just a big puke from my stomach after reading the blog on the theory. Sorry for staring this on a Sunday afternoon.

Just for context and for the lawsuit followers’ information, AILA/AILFA did not file a lawsuit in 2007 but were preparing for it. The first and only lawsuit that was filed was by a law firm in Chicago (Azulay, Horn & Seiden's Class Action Lawsuit Paves Way for Government's Reversal in Green Card Gaff | Business Wire). Apparently, that lawsuit only had one plaintiff representing the class who had filed AOS using the original VB and the lawsuit was seeking that they do not reject AOS for those who have already filed. So, looks like, the current situation with the lawsuit is for the first time a lawsuit is going in this phase on a VB issue (assuming there has not been any inside talks).

So, if this drags on, they will need more and continued support ($).
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  #994 (permalink)  
Old 10-12-2015, 09:21 PM
shv shv is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bcci View Post
You missing the whole point of the famous "Spill Over" concept. If the spill over is around 19,000 or 1,000 what ever it might be, they have to build the inventory for sure to pre adjudicate as it takes 6-8 months cases to meet next year demand. They can't simply move the dates based on monthly allocation which will be huge disaster. High probability of Visa Wastage. Again, I am not at good at this but my gut tells me that 07/2011 is not far off based on previous year FB/EB2ROW spill over to EB2I. Previous years (5 years) trend for EB2I is about anywhere from 17k to 23k. This might be the reason for big jump.
You may disagree, but the truth is even after spill over let's assume 19k SO + 3k regular =22k for EB2I would not meet the demand of sept 9th VB, as per IV and other forums there are appr. 50k people who got affected by VB fiasco, so that means 50k + 100k dependents = 150k demand for sept 9th VB. Hence 22k supply doesn't even stand a chance infront of 150k demand and hence the rollback on sept. 25th. You are right when you say to pre-adjudicate it would take 6-8 months for them, they may move AD every quarter in this fiscal year based on demand/supply and visibility.
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  #995 (permalink)  
Old 10-12-2015, 10:20 PM
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Is there any update on the VB reversal from you side? I didn't hear any thing from last few days from IV. I have been a donor and supporter of IV for a while, but from last few days I felt that IV is not taking steps(after flower camp). Many people seeking rally( forum) but response from IV. Appreciate if you tell us your plan and actions. Also it would be nice if you could write your view points about the future VB. You are more experienced to tell us if there is any hope...
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  #996 (permalink)  
Old 10-13-2015, 12:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by superhero View Post
Is there any update on the VB reversal from you side? I didn't hear any thing from last few days from IV. I have been a donor and supporter of IV for a while, but from last few days I felt that IV is not taking steps(after flower camp). Many people seeking rally( forum) but response from IV. Appreciate if you tell us your plan and actions. Also it would be nice if you could write your view points about the future VB. You are more experienced to tell us if there is any hope...
If you are not hearing from IV, there must be a reason. I think they are onto something.

Go, IV!
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  #997 (permalink)  
Old 10-13-2015, 09:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shv View Post
You may disagree, but the truth is even after spill over let's assume 19k SO + 3k regular =22k for EB2I would not meet the demand of sept 9th VB, as per IV and other forums there are appr. 50k people who got affected by VB fiasco, so that means 50k + 100k dependents = 150k demand for sept 9th VB. Hence 22k supply doesn't even stand a chance infront of 150k demand and hence the rollback on sept. 25th. You are right when you say to pre-adjudicate it would take 6-8 months for them, they may move AD every quarter in this fiscal year based on demand/supply and visibility.
Here we go again, doing voodoo math about spillovers and all the ifs and buts associated with it. When will you folks understand that the only way out is through legislation?! We need to push to have the per country cap removed. Getting HR 213 on the floor and voted on is the only sure fire way out of this mess.
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  #998 (permalink)  
Old 10-13-2015, 09:59 AM
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so how do we get HR 213. only the speaker can do that. already there are 57 sponsors for it.
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  #999 (permalink)  
Old 10-13-2015, 10:21 AM
shv shv is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Teerandaz View Post
Here we go again, doing voodoo math about spillovers and all the ifs and buts associated with it. When will you folks understand that the only way out is through legislation?! We need to push to have the per country cap removed. Getting HR 213 on the floor and voted on is the only sure fire way out of this mess.
Everybody is not smart like you in math and its an open public forum to discuss anything, If you think you are the only one working then plz don't waste your time posting here and reminding all of us abt HR213. Don't stereotype anybody by their posts, do your best, we are also doing our best too.
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  #1000 (permalink)  
Old 10-13-2015, 10:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shv View Post
Everybody is not smart like you in math and its an open public forum to discuss anything, If you think you are the only one working then plz don't waste your time posting here and reminding all of us abt HR213. Don't stereotype anybody by their posts, do your best, we are also doing our best too.
I agree with @SHV. Please don't stereotype or just echo about HR213. Everyone knows the importance of it and IV volunteers and Core is working on it and I am sure they have a strategy in place. They will guide the people and we can follow it when it is time. But you are saying to bring it to floor? Do you have a plan? Please let us know we will help by all means? You are saying as if I or other person is a speaker of the house and you are member of the house who is ready to vote.

Again, IV members are currently waiting on IV's next action whether it may be visagate or HR213. So, in the meantime people are just brainstorming and I don't see any harm in it.
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  #1001 (permalink)  
Old 10-13-2015, 10:52 AM
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if the congress takes up this HR213 bill and approve it and if it gets approved in senate as well, that would be a miracle and ofcourse would need a bipartisan effort. Right now i dont expect miracles, not in near future.

what about i-140 ead which uscis put in its regulatory agenda, may be we can push thier bums to keep that rule making on the track, that would provide a much needed relief.Unfortunately the lawyers keep pushing their own agenda, we all know i-140 eads means less h1 extension filings and lawyers loose money , this is just an example.Everyone except the eb employee folk are involved in immigration matters for their own business. This is sad at the same time its reality.
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  #1002 (permalink)  
Old 10-13-2015, 11:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by testman View Post
If you are not hearing from IV, there must be a reason. I think they are onto something.

Go, IV!
Hell yeah! This is a signature IV move.

In the iterest of managing expectations, I hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Where worst = do some work
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  #1003 (permalink)  
Old 10-13-2015, 11:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shv View Post
Stupids are encouraging/supporting him because:-

1) they want to give strong message to dos/dhs/uscis for the vb fiasco. sick pleasure!

2) They also skeptical of any other fixes coming in future specially I140ead rule, as stupids think that if they haven't given ead via early aos via vb modernization, how come they will provide i140ead in future.

3) Stupids are also thinking that their case is strong and they will get Oct VB reversed in future. God knows when...

4) Stupids also think that VB fiasco is not related to numbers and it is something to do with anti-immigrants with in agencies and also politics involved for the revised vb update.

From Greg's point of view:-

1) He is representing the people who are affected by oct VB fiasco.

2) He already knew that TRO would fail as there is no way he can prove that irreparable damage, but still want to pressurize the agencies, in hope that they will not do these blunders in future causing inconvenience to many affected and also implement I140ead rule soon, hence stupids are supporting him. Great thinking by stupids and greg!

3) Nobody thought of what consequences would happen if lawsuit is filed. Because these desperate stupids don't think about other people not affected by VB, they know how to do it and they will do it what they want to do at any cost.

4) filing FOIA would've given them the much needed insight about numbers and VB fiasco but who cares if it serves the hidden agenda of lawyers to delay/kill EO and stupids desparate to get ead's.

5) Stupids along with lawyers are also planning to file lawsuit for Visa recapture in few weeks.


I guess, What will happen to the VB lawsuit in future is only negotiations with the agencies to consider the medicals/documents of the affected in future when they fall in AD.
If people want to spend money on lawsuits they can spend. Only after they spend they will know they wasted. But they will be told one reason or another to keep the lawsuit hope alive and keep donating.
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  #1004 (permalink)  
Old 10-13-2015, 11:55 AM
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Lawsuit will also harm advocacy work. The posture will become indifferent of the administration for IV. That will hurt everything. I hope more people can see through this.
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  #1005 (permalink)  
Old 10-13-2015, 12:28 PM
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Default I140 ead

Not sure if this has been discussed in IV forums, but the commenting period for the I140 EAD rule will be ending soon. And I'm seeing some 200 odd comments at Regulations.gov.

Do we have any guidelines from IV for commenting at the regulations.gov portal?
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