Immigration Voice - Forums
Register Get Involved Contact Lawmakers Advocacy Discussion Image Image Image Image

Go Back   Immigration Voice > Immigration Voice Issues and Congressional updates > IV Agenda and Legislative Updates
Click to log in with Facebook
IV Agenda and Legislative Updates Immigration Voice's Agenda and Legislative Updates

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 06-22-2009, 01:25 AM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Apr-04
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 341
aadimanav has a reputation beyond repute aadimanav has a reputation beyond repute aadimanav has a reputation beyond repute aadimanav has a reputation beyond repute aadimanav has a reputation beyond repute aadimanav has a reputation beyond repute aadimanav has a reputation beyond repute aadimanav has a reputation beyond repute aadimanav has a reputation beyond repute aadimanav has a reputation beyond repute aadimanav has a reputation beyond repute
Default CIR and What's Ahead

Source:
The Oh Law Firm

06/21/2009: CIR and What's Ahead

On Friday, Obama Press Secretary Robert Gibbs officially announced that the President was scheduled to call a small group of Congressional leaders and political leaders to the White House to open a dialogue on CIR next Thursday, 06/25/2009. Troublesome was another statement that recognizes the facts by the Press Secretary at the same press conference that the Congress did not have enough numbers to pass a CIR legislation. As we reported earlier, for a CIR to pass the Congress, it should pass both the Senate and the House. However, it is the House that lacks enough numbers at this time to pass a CIR legislation this year. There are a plenty of House legislators who represent districts that are politically not affected by the Hispanic population and their political pressures. These legislators usually form a group of Democratic represenstives who are either conservative and middle of the road in the political ideology. The situation tends to be different when it comes to the Senate that is consisted of legislators based on their statewide consistuencies as opposed to the House representatives that represent small neighborhood and district constituencies. The Senators' decisions are thus derived more from broader national political or statewide political issues and interests of the whole party. For this reasons, for the past several years, the Senate initiated and was able to pass CIR bills which have ended up in the ditch when it moved to the House floor. The background behind the Press Secretary's announcement downplaying the potential success of CIR within this year is their motivation to control unrealistic rise of expectation in the CIR supporting community on the President's initiatives that can also end up in another ditch with potential negative political fall-outs to his political leadership. The current politcal landscape and environment then raise two questions. The first question is whether the President and the Democratic Congress will have enough energy and zeal to successfuly change the existing political landscape, particularly in the House of Representatives, within such a limited time within this year. The Congress will soon go into the Summer recess and the remaining legislative days in the Congressional calendar for 2009 are very limited. The second question is why then Senate Majority leader, Sen. Harry Reid, has been spinning in media on his agenda to take up a CIR bill this fall with the full realization of political reality that can be ditched again in the House. It appears that part of such spinning is related to his own political future. His seat in the Senate will be up for reelection in the national mid-term election in 2010 and he needs a strong support from the Hispanic constituency in the State of Nevada. The Hispanic population has been rapidly growing durng the past several years in the State of Nevada. His push for a CIR will achieve his political calculation, no matter whether the bill will pass or fail in the Senate. Again, the chance for a CIR passing the Senate in 2009 is indeed very good as the chance for Senate Democrats pulling together 60 votes may turn realistic, particularly as affected by the final result of the current Senate election dispute in the State of Minnesota. In the very near future, the Minnesota Supreme Court is likely to hand down a decision sustaining the election of Mr. Al Franken, a progressive Democrat, as the next Senator, over the conservative former(?) Senator Norm Coleman. For the discussion per se, let's assume that the CIR fails to pass either in the Senate or in the House. The Senator Harry Reid will still get all the credits in his Hispanic constituency in the State of Nevada for his initiatives in the Senate to legislate a CIR!

All in all, year 2009 will turn out to be the only year that can pass a CIR because this is a so-called leap-year when there is no national reelection and the House members will be less affected by their activities this year. The key is whether the President Obama will have enough energy, steam, and polical motive to make a full-court pressing and arm-twisting of the conservative Democratic members in the House within a "very" short period of time, within this Summer or early fall at the latest. Currently, his and Democrats' top two reform agenda stay with the nation's health care and energy reforms. Until we see such full dedication and commitment of the President to the CIR within a given time, one should not raise the level of his/her hope or expectation too high as it will indeed bring out really devastating frustration and hopelessness in 2010 in that considering the November 2010 mid-year election, the chance for CIR next year will turn out to be very slim because of the rerunnng Democrats in the election from small districts that are not affected by the Hispanic political pressures. Until we see such solid momentum and heat of passion on the part of the President leading to quick actions in the near future, all the media campaign and spinning of news by the White House and the Senator Reid may have to be taken with caution and discount.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #2 (permalink)  
Old 06-22-2009, 01:36 AM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
N/A
Category
:
EB1C
I140 Mailed Date
:
12/25/2013
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140+I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
12/25/2013
Compare
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 1,051
go_guy123 has a reputation beyond repute go_guy123 has a reputation beyond repute go_guy123 has a reputation beyond repute go_guy123 has a reputation beyond repute go_guy123 has a reputation beyond repute go_guy123 has a reputation beyond repute go_guy123 has a reputation beyond repute go_guy123 has a reputation beyond repute go_guy123 has a reputation beyond repute go_guy123 has a reputation beyond repute go_guy123 has a reputation beyond repute
Default

CIR 2009 RIP.....health care, economy , perhaps even iran etc are ahead of that
__________________
G Guy from above the 49th parallel
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
  #3 (permalink)  
Old 06-22-2009, 05:46 AM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Jun-07
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 231
arnab221 has a reputation beyond repute arnab221 has a reputation beyond repute arnab221 has a reputation beyond repute arnab221 has a reputation beyond repute arnab221 has a reputation beyond repute arnab221 has a reputation beyond repute arnab221 has a reputation beyond repute arnab221 has a reputation beyond repute arnab221 has a reputation beyond repute arnab221 has a reputation beyond repute arnab221 has a reputation beyond repute
Default Not enough numbers THIS YEAR ..what does that mean?

I fail to understand one fundamental statement "We do not have numbers for CIR THIS YEAR" . If they do not have the numbers this year , how will they have magically have numbers the next year and year after that and what hope are the 12 million illegals and 1 million legals sitting on ?

1) The people will not change , not will their opinions over the next 1 year .

2) The Hispanics will not flood into their constituencies in 1 years or even in 5 years and make them change their opinions .

3) What has economy , Iran or energy or healthcare got to do with immigration reform ?

3a) Are they are saying they are so busy is solving these issues that they do not have the time for CIR ? I can at least buy this "No time" logic .

3b) But just because you pretend to be engrossed in solving all the these world problems , why will you not vote for CIR . Either you support CIR or you do not . Why will not vote for CIR if there are other issues this year and will vote if you have no issues next year is beyond my understanding .
__________________
DC Rally Participant ( 2 + 1 )
Join the texas state chapter :- http://groups.yahoo.com/group/texasiv
Regular $ Contributor

***THE MORE I AM HURT, THE STRONGER I GET ***
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #4 (permalink)  
Old 06-22-2009, 10:36 AM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Oct-03
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
08/02/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/02/2007
Compare
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 443
gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by arnab221 View Post
3b) But just because you pretend to be engrossed in solving all the these world problems , why will you not vote for CIR . Either you support CIR or you do not . Why will not vote for CIR if there are other issues this year and will vote if you have no issues next year is beyond my understanding .
Dude,

You speak as if there is a CIR on the table and all that is needed is a "yes" or a "no" vote.
You know that that is not the case. There is no CIR yet. Creating one that is acceptable to the majority is the key task. That would take time, effort, resources and ultimately "votes"! At the end of the day, CIR will not reflect the need of the hour. It only reflects the politics of the day!

GCisaDawg
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #5 (permalink)  
Old 06-22-2009, 11:01 AM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Dec-03
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/30/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140+I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
06/30/2007
Compare
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 606
Gravitation has a reputation beyond repute Gravitation has a reputation beyond repute Gravitation has a reputation beyond repute Gravitation has a reputation beyond repute Gravitation has a reputation beyond repute Gravitation has a reputation beyond repute Gravitation has a reputation beyond repute Gravitation has a reputation beyond repute Gravitation has a reputation beyond repute Gravitation has a reputation beyond repute Gravitation has a reputation beyond repute
Default From what I got from Oh Law's update

  • There are not enough numbers in the house to pass CIR. It may be pushed in Senate for political reasons and may pass easily, but there's no such hope -whatsoever- in the House.
  • If CIR is to ever pass, 2009 is the best year.
So, there's no hope of passing in what could the best possible year for CIR! Am I the only one to whom it all sounds very ominous?
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #6 (permalink)  
Old 06-22-2009, 11:09 AM
Banned
Priority Date
:
Jan-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
04/12/2008
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
N/A
I485 Mailed Date
:
12/02/2011
Compare
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,219
gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute
Default CIR Will not pass this year

I think OP is correct as CIR will not pass this year. Remember Mr bush took advantage 8 years ago and won election. Even he may knew that it will not pass. Same way Raid may know that it may not pass but what is wrong to take advantage of pushing CIR. Even if it doesnot pass or introduced he may win because Hispanic will think if he wins he may bring CIR for sure.

Now in near future Mr President does not have any benefit of CIR unless he runs for next term. So for him delayed CIR is good. till 2011. So it may be win-win for both. Raid will make a vocal for it now and will win election and OBAMA will keep silence and make attempt in 2011. If passes or not he may win election again.

Only catch is if hispanic people think that Replicans didnot help them and now dems not going to help again so they may not give vote to Dems as punishment and that may hurt.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


Reply

Bookmarks


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are On

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Multiple I-485 - Should I go ahead saloni Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins 1 07-11-2008 06:26 PM
Any Recession Ahead? vdlrao News articles and reports 3 11-19-2007 06:06 PM
Over is over - lets moved ahead chanduv23 Sept 18th Rally: Car-pooling, Group Reservations for Air travel, hotel etc. 5 09-25-2007 03:57 PM
More BAD News AHEAD.. nomi Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins 27 12-11-2006 04:42 PM
Tough road ahead Zee IV Agenda and Legislative Updates 0 04-07-2006 07:05 PM



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:18 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
(c)ImmigrationVoice.org