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  #46 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2006, 10:33 AM
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Analysis :

The numbers available to oversubscribed countries would increase..Just by elimination the dependents the numbers would increase by 70-80%..There are no clear estimates how many India/China EB2/EB3 are there in the labor BECs.
So there cannot be any forecast when India/China EB2/EB3 would become current. Also there is a provision in the bill that establishes hard country quota..That might make matters worse...
The recapture and allocation of unused visa numbers is a huge subject in itself...We donot know what rabbit would jump out of that hat..
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  #47 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2006, 10:50 AM
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knnmbd is on a distinguished road
Default Not so sure

Quote:
Originally Posted by ny-nonrir
What if a person has got the degree (part-time) last year. But has been working in a related field for more than 3 years as of today? Does the 3 year count start after the completion of the degree.

In other words, can someone take an accelerated MS today and complete it in say an year to qualify (assuming they have been working in the related field more than 3 years as of today with a BS)
I think the law clearly says Advance degree preceding to 3 years of experience in related field, so you strategy will not work. Also, if you are planning to get an advance degree keep in mind that the law might specify ( after enacted) that it needs to be from a ABIT accreted university, in which case a advance degree usually takes 1 -2 years including project work/thesis. So a 1 year accelerated degree in computer science from say University of Phoenix- online might not cut it.
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  #48 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2006, 11:00 AM
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Default Re: Not so sure

`(G) Aliens who have earned an advanced degree in science, technology, engineering, or math and have been working in a related field in the United States under a nonimmigrant visa during the 3-year period preceding their application for an immigrant visa under section 203(b).

It says "preceeding the application" not preceeding the work exp. But I think the language leans more towards what you are saying (degree should ve been obtained before the work exp). But I think its open to interpretation. We will see how they interpret.

For example, In my case I completed my part time MS in May 2005 from an accredited school. But I ve been working on H1b since 2000. So I may not qualify for the next 2 yrs if what you say comes true.

But I can argue that I have an adv. degree during the preceeding 3 yrs and I have worked > 3 yrs in related field preceeding to applying :-) .

Last edited by ny-nonrir; 05-15-2006 at 11:02 AM.
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  #49 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2006, 11:06 AM
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You are right, but some of us have made commitment here few years back and need to work for another 4 or 5 years before return, our life is so hard here without GC or atleast EAD and career is halted. India needs big and we are not there yet. It will take time. Going to India because of retrogression may not be good for India, because people will comeback if they had the desire to be here. Going back by choice is what India needs and can grow based on those people's investments and interests.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mihird
Instead of giving our golden years to help build the US's economy, we should rather work towards building our own economy....

Every country has a right to do things the way they like....we are here because we think the American way of life is better than the life offered by India....it was very true some 30 years back....quite true some 20 years back....true 10 years back....and somewhat true in the 21st century...

Once the balance tips, it will be all over....there will be no more backlogs and Congress will be busy working on how to stop India and China from moving so much forward....

I almost think, a focus group similar to IV needs to start working on how to encourage repatriation of the skilled H1-B workforce to India....

My friend, bulk of immigration happens because of economic reasons...as long as the US has better opportunities than India, and 70% of India remains poor, the American dream will continue to entice many....and the US government will be free to enact laws on its whims...and in its own personal interests...

We won independence in 1947....it almost seems like we have lost it away again and become slaves of the American way of life...

In my 10 years in the US, off late, I am more often hearing of people packing up and going back for good....I think, we all have that choice....and frankly, I don't think, that choice is that bad...and it is only going to become better by each passing year...

My .02 cents...
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  #50 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2006, 11:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ny-nonrir
`(G) Aliens who have earned an advanced degree in science, technology, engineering, or math and have been working in a related field in the United States under a nonimmigrant visa during the 3-year period preceding their application for an immigrant visa under section 203(b).

It says "preceeding the application" not preceeding the work exp. But I think the language leans more towards what you are saying (degree should ve been obtained before the work exp). But I think its open to interpretation. We will see how they interpret.

For example, In my case I completed my part time MS in May 2005 from an accredited school. But I ve been working on H1b since 2000. So I may not qualify for the next 2 yrs if what you say comes true.

But I can argue that I have an adv. degree during the preceeding 3 yrs and I have worked > 3 yrs in related field preceeding to applying :-) .
I was just looking at it logically, though it can be interpreted in multiple ways.So you could be right too but we will need to wait and see what the "final cut" will say.
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  #51 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2006, 12:07 PM
g03 g03 is offline
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(G) Aliens who have earned an advanced degree in science, technology, engineering, or math and have been working in a related field in the United States under a nonimmigrant visa during the 3-year period preceding their application for an immigrant visa under section 203(b).

An or could have made many people eligible.
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  #52 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2006, 01:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gomirage
Ok, that part is ok as I have 3 years under h1b before the bill becomes law (at least 6 month from now).

My second question is: can I use my MS to get exeption while my job require only a BS ?
If you read carefully none of the bills place a restriction on the job category (just that it be in a related field).

Now, if we succeed in incorporation Sen. Cornyn's SKIL Bill provisions, people with Advanced degrees from US (STEM or otherwise) will be except from cap as well as 3 year requirements. Cross your fingers and hope for the best. Of course, there is a HUGE uphill struggle before something like this becomes a law. So, do not expect some relief to us in the immediate future.
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  #53 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2006, 01:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arihant
If you read carefully none of the bills place a restriction on the job category (just that it be in a related field).

Now, if we succeed in incorporation Sen. Cornyn's SKIL Bill provisions, people with Advanced degrees from US (STEM or otherwise) will be except from cap as well as 3 year requirements. Cross your fingers and hope for the best. Of course, there is a HUGE uphill struggle before something like this becomes a law. So, do not expect some relief to us in the immediate future.
There is no doubt that this will be a great benefit that will affect a few directly( with U.S Advance degrees) and subsequently benefit a lot more people as a large part of the backlog will clear out when advance degree people get out of the queue. I agree with you on the uphill battle to see this go through as a law, but the fact that this provision figures in PACE, TALENT, SKIL and CIR gives me a sense of confidence that this provision is a “go for launch
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  #54 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2006, 01:09 PM
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I have a question, what happens to people who earned a Masters degreen in Mechanical or Civil Enginnering but working in IT for more than 3 years. Are they subjected to numerical limitation. When they say working in related field, should the Mechinical Engg work in only MEchanical related field or IT is also considered? Core members, please clarify.
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  #55 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2006, 01:42 PM
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If the bill become Law, my hypothesis are the following.

Eliminating spouse from 2004 onwards.
1) 2004---140,000 recapturing
2) 2005 ---140,000 recapturing
3) 2006----140,000 recapturing

Since the ratio is 2.05 for green card visa consumption per applicant we can recapture 570,000 visa immediately.

Recapturing Unused Visa from 2001 onwards
At least 150,000 ( worst case scenario ) will be recapture for immediate availably.

From Fiscal year 2007 ( starts from Oct-2006 onwards)
490,000 visas available.

Total visa available from Bill became law to Oct-2006

106, 0000 (1Million Visa)

EB-1 will no doubt become current
EB-2 will also became current.
EB-3 not very sure but looking into the above number will became current.
Worst case scenario Mexico on EB-3 may not move much and other worker I am not sure about it.

The problem of EB-3 is 245(i) applications. I do not think USCIS has any application pending with 245(i) all the applications are pending will DOL.

I analyzed, how much 245(i)/EB-3 may be pending with DOL
325,000 application pending with DOL.
Year 2005( Till march,2005): 25,000
Year 2004:60,000 ( it may be more, but go with small number to be safe)
Year2003:40,000( some of the people might have got approved or pending from 2003, that is why I counted 40,000 instead of 60,000).
Year2002:20,000
Year <2001 is remains 245(i) Plus Other workers.
Keep in mind that it was much easy to get other worker catorgories rather than Skilled worker because of the wages etc. I believe that most of the workers on 245(i) might be on other worker, but we are not sure neither DOL until all the 45 Days notice is issued by DOL. Hence we will go with worst case scenario. Let assume that 50% of 245(i) are EB-3 skilled worker (which is worst case scenario).

This makes 145,000 labors pending from 2005-2001 EB-2, EB-3 Skilled and unskilled and other worker.

This leaves 180,000 labors which is EB-3 Skilled 245(i) or professional , out of which 50% is Others workers. Which leaves us 90,000 under 245(i) Skilled Worker which is part of EB-3.
With a Million visa available with only 90,000 visa from 245(i) which is part of EB-3. I strongly believe that the EB-3 will become current.

Appreciate your comment.
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  #56 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2006, 01:56 PM
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msp1976 will become famous soon enough
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Your figures too high...

2001 onwards upto enactment..recapture available is less than 90K..This is a confirmed figure..If you search hard enough you would find that...

2004 onwards the dependents visa numbers would free up...That is
140K toal for 2004 - dependents 70K
140K toal for 2005 - dependents 70K
(140K toal for 2006 - dependents 70K)( I am not sure about these)


210 K + 80 K = 290 K recapture available best case
...
Most likely 220K or something at the most...

450k for 2006 that would make total 450+220 = 670K....

That is if the bill gets through in tact...
I guess we would not get the whole 450K the compromise would be 280K or something....

You are overestimating heavily....no offense meant...

My estimate total availabe 280K(2006)+220K(recap) = 500K...(in 2006..)

My estimate availbe for EB1+EB2+EB3 is 65% of 500K = 325K.(in 2006)....again there are country caps to be considered....
So net increase may not be very large....

Last edited by msp1976; 05-15-2006 at 02:09 PM.
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  #57 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2006, 02:02 PM
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Communique,

That is a known fact....The unskilled category was capped at 10K earlier...Now they are gonna get a lot.....


That is thing you are seeing very large numbers in bijualex's analysis but in reality we might get very small numbers when you break down the things in categories...

The actiual numbers that would become availle to India/China EB3 would be very small and this reform might do damage to us also..

bijualex29's numbers are way over the top....

Last edited by msp1976; 05-15-2006 at 02:10 PM.
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  #58 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2006, 02:07 PM
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Lasantha is just really nice Lasantha is just really nice Lasantha is just really nice Lasantha is just really nice
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Hey Bijualex,

" I do not think USCIS has any application pending with 245(i) all the applications are pending will DOL."

Why do you say that? I thought worldwide EB3 backlog was due to the sudden flow of 245(i) pettitions that got approved from DOL.

Lasantha
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  #59 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2006, 02:10 PM
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sorry guys, where did you get that this bill may be enacted as a law October 2006? What I have heard from the news is that Senate plans to sign consolidated bill before the end of 2006.
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  #60 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2006, 02:10 PM
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Thanks MSP1976 for pointed out my mistake in counting the visa recapute. That is what exactly I am looking.
This is a brain stoming session. All that we are trying to figure it our that will this bill help us in improving our life.
We are all educated and higly intellegent in figuring it out based on small clue that is thrown by USCIS.
In the past I have noticed people in immigration.com forum manifesting excellent ideas and hypothesis which is mostly happens to be true.
Small educated guess will not hurt.
Now my question is will EB-3 became current if this bill become law?
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