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Old 01-26-2006, 04:18 PM
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Default Making Sense of the New Released FY 2005 EB Numbers

At request of members, posting this here:

If you go to Matthew Oh's excellent site (http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html) you have surely seen the newly released data on the number of EB and Family greencards issued in FY 2005 [http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY05tableV.pdf]. There were 242,335 EB visas issued and 222095 family visas.

If the limit is 140,000 visas for EB, where did the rest come from? Well, from two places,

(1) There were about 11, 645 FB visas from FY 2004 that rolled over to EB in FY 2005

(2) Then according to a Gary Endelman article on ILW from 2/15/05, there were about 100,000 AC21 recapture visas left as of Feb 2005. Note that these were not used up in prior years because USCIS was not processing much between 2002-2004.

This new data release also allows us to calculate the EB and Family visa limit for FY 2006. By applying the spillover rule described in Appendix 1 of the 2004 Annual Flow Report - http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/sta...idents2004.pdf I estimate that the FY 2006 limit for EB is 143,905 and the limit for Family is 267,215. Which is about 40% less EBs than FY 2005. These figures may be off by a bit if there are still some AC 21 recapture visas left.

Of course, none of this is really news since the November 2005 Visa Bulletin described this situation 40% reduction fairly accurately, even though at the time they didn't have a full set of stats. Note that Endelman's 100,000 and CIS 131,000 AC 21 visa recapture numbers don't seem to affect the percentage reduction figure. [http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bu...etin_2712.html]

Another interesting aspect revealed by these numbers is the relative pattern of EBs:
EB 1: 66,344; EB2: 43,412; EB3: 117,156

Looks like EB2's didn't really benefit from those recapture numbers (the strict limit is 1/3 of (140,000 + family spillover)= approx 43000 . Wonder why?

Last edited by WaldenPond; 01-26-2006 at 08:29 PM.
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Old 01-26-2006, 04:59 PM
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Why these link mentioned above are not working ?

[http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/b...etin_2712.html]
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Old 01-26-2006, 05:19 PM
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Default

Reposting -
If you go to Matthew Oh's excellent site ( http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html ) you have surely seen the newly released data on the number of EB and Family greencards issued in FY 2005 [http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY05tableV.pdf ]. There were 242,335 EB visas issued and 222095 family visas.

If the limit is 140,000 visas for EB, where did the rest come from? Well, from two places,

(1) There were about 11, 645 FB visas from FY 2004 that rolled over to EB in FY 2005

(2) Then according to a Gary Endelman article on ILW from 2/15/05, there were about 100,000 AC21 recapture visas left as of Feb 2005. Note that these were not used up in prior years because USCIS was not processing much between 2002-2004.

This new data release also allows us to calculate the EB and Family visa limit for FY 2006. By applying the spillover rule described in Appendix 1 of the 2004 Annual Flow Report (http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/sta...idents2004.pdf )I estimate that the FY 2006 limit for EB is 143,905 and the limit for Family is 267,215. Which is about 40% less EBs than FY 2005. These figures may be off by a bit if there are still some AC 21 recapture visas left.

Of course, none of this is really news since the November 2005 Visa Bulletin described this situation 40% reduction fairly accurately, even though at the time they didn't have a full set of stats. Note that Endelman's 100,000 and CIS 131,000 AC 21 visa recapture numbers don't seem to affect the percentage reduction figure. [http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/frv...etin_2712.html]

Another interesting aspect revealed by these numbers is the relative pattern of EBs:
EB 1: 66,344; EB2: 43,412; EB3: 117,156

Looks like EB2's didn't really benefit from those recapture numbers (the strict limit is 1/3 of (140,000 + family spillover)= approx 43000 . Wonder why?

Last edited by Sandeep; 01-26-2006 at 05:30 PM.
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Old 01-26-2006, 05:24 PM
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ashishmaity,

looks like some problem while copying. I have corrected it now.
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