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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2007, 01:26 PM
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Default Grim EAD situtation , Oh my god!

Guys,
The calculations below is not to scare anyone but it may very well a reality. Based on the assumptions below, some people may have to wait up to 20 months to get a EAD card: Ouch!


A Total I-485 Applicants: 750000 Applicants
B Each EAD processing time: 5 Minutes
C Total processing hrs: 62500 Hours
(Calculations: AxB/60)
D Daily productive Hours: 5 Hours
(It is a government body!)
E Total Man Days (Business Days): 12500 Man Days
(Calculations: C/D)
F EAD Workforce: 30 People
G Total Business Days: 417 Days
(Calculations: E/F)
H Average Business Days in a month: 21 Days
I Total Clearing Time : 20 Months
(Calculations: G/I)
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2007, 01:30 PM
akp akp is offline
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Default

I don't believe all 750000 are EAD wannabies!
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2007, 01:32 PM
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Talking 750,000 applications

750,000 applications ? Does that mean the PD will be 01 Jan 1900 after October ? I think you grossly overestimated the number of applications . If the GC quota is 9800 for India then to process 750,00 applications ( most of them will be India I am sure ) will take like 20 years . Thats impossible man !!!
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2007, 01:34 PM
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Default

You can change the assumption of the calculations. 750,000 are anticipated number of applicants. Now, even if u reduce it by half, i.e. 375,000, the wait could be more than a year long.
Plus we do not know if there are 10 or 100 people working on EAD stuff. Lower this number , longer would be the wait.
Quote:
Originally Posted by akp
I don't believe all 750000 are EAD wannabies!
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2007, 01:36 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by singhsa3
Guys,
The calculations below is not to scare anyone but it may very well a reality. Based on the assumptions below, some people may have to wait up to 20 months to get a EAD card: Ouch!


A Total I-485 Applicants: 750000 Applicants
B Each EAD processing time: 5 Minutes
C Total processing hrs: 62500 Hours
(Calculations: AxB/60)
D Daily productive Hours: 5 Hours
(It is a government body!)
E Total Man Days (Business Days): 12500 Man Days
(Calculations: C/D)
F EAD Workforce: 30 People
G Total Business Days: 417 Days
(Calculations: E/F)
H Average Business Days in a month: 21 Days
I Total Clearing Time : 20 Months
(Calculations: G/I)
I will cut no of EAD applications to 600,000.

USCIS can always use contractors with our revenue to complete the work.
But you are absolutely right. If they dont add temp resources with this extra revenue, we will be waiting for atleast an year to get EAD and AP.
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2007, 01:37 PM
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tinamatthew is an unknown quantity at this point
Default EAD delays

What happens if I get my EAD after 180 days of concurrent filing i-140 & i-485, and my employer no longer has a vacancy for me. Can I start at another job or do I have to refile the i-140. (I'm not presently working for the company yet - Schedule A applicant)
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2007, 01:37 PM
akp akp is offline
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Default

If you assume 30 people, you get 1 year per your calculations. Make it 90 and we get it in 3 months
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2007, 01:37 PM
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Default

Not really, The PD will be stuck sometime in 02 or 03. Thus, unless there are some changes in law, we are looking at 5-7 years wait.
Also, I am not fabricating 750,000 number. This is the anticpated applicants, per Matthew Oh.
Quote:
Originally Posted by arnab221
750,000 applications ? Does that mean the PD will be 01 Jan 1900 after October ? I think you grossly overestimated the number of applications . If the GC quota is 9800 for India then to process 750,00 applications ( most of them will be India I am sure ) will take like 20 years . Thats impossible man !!!
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  #9 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2007, 01:38 PM
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Priority Date
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Nov-05
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I140 Mailed Date
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07/02/2007
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Default

Please look at the discussion topic and then post you comments.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tinamatthew
What happens if I get my EAD after 180 days of concurrent filing i-140 & i-485, and my employer no longer has a vacancy for me. Can I start at another job or do I have to refile the i-140. (I'm not presently working for the company yet - Schedule A applicant)
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  #10 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2007, 01:43 PM
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Priority Date
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Default

It is still optimistic my freind. As one of our member pointed out, realstic number would be around 600K, which implies 16 months wait for some people. Also , we do not know the level of work force at USCIS engaged in processing EAD. It could be 10, it could be 100. More the better but it we it is fewer than we are doomed.
Additional Comments:
Also, any new hires will need to be trained, and infrastructure need to be set up. All these things do not happen overnight
Quote:
Originally Posted by akp
If you assume 30 people, you get 1 year per your calculations. Make it 90 and we get it in 3 months

Last edited by singhsa3; 07-20-2007 at 01:48 PM.
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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2007, 01:44 PM
Senior Member
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vinabath is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tinamatthew
What happens if I get my EAD after 180 days of concurrent filing i-140 & i-485, and my employer no longer has a vacancy for me. Can I start at another job or do I have to refile the i-140. (I'm not presently working for the company yet - Schedule A applicant)
I think you can start another job with the same job description. EAD is not tied to the employer. It is tied to you. AC21 is a blessing for us in this regard.

After 180 days, you are free and you almost got virtual GC except that you need to work in the same job description and maintain character.
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2007, 01:47 PM
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tinamatthew is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Sorry

Quote:
Originally Posted by singhsa3
Please look at the discussion topic and then post you comments.
Sorry ... but please do you have an answer
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2007, 01:47 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
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Oct-05
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vinabath is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by singhsa3
It is still optimistic my freind. As one of our member pointed out, realstic number would be around 600K, which implies 16 months wait for some people. Also , we do not know the level of work force at USCIS engaged in processing EAD. It could be 10, it could be 100. More the better but it we it is fewer than we are doomed.
I think USCIS will hire contractors to take care of this shit like DOL does. EAD and AP is the most easy to process. Very less dependencies.
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  #14 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2007, 01:48 PM
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Priority Date
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Join Date: Jul 2007
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tinamatthew is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Thank you

Quote:
Originally Posted by vinabath
I think you can start another job with the same job description. EAD is not tied to the employer. It is tied to you. AC21 is a blessing for us in this regard.

After 180 days, you are free and you almost got virtual GC except that you need to work in the same job description and maintain character.
Thank you so much for this reply
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  #15 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2007, 01:52 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Nov-05
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
03/01/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/02/2007
Compare
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 872
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Default

Not trying to be pessimitic her but any new hires will need to be trained, and infrastructure need to be set up. All these things do not happen overnight.
There are dependancies. I-485 information needs to be entered in the system and A # on I-140 need to be crosschecked. If one is not available already then it needs to be generated. In any case, 5 minutes per EAD is still a conservative figure.
All these add to the time.
Also, due to H-1B pile (65 K +20 K+15K= 100K cases pending), this may not take priorty and resources may be diverted.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vinabath
I think USCIS will hire contractors to take care of this shit like DOL does. EAD and AP is the most easy to process. Very less dependencies.

Last edited by singhsa3; 07-20-2007 at 01:56 PM.
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