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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 08-11-2007, 10:02 AM
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Priority Date
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Nov-05
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I140 Mailed Date
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03/01/2007
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Default Statisitcs and Data on Green Card

Folks,
PLEASE do not reply to this message but send me an e-mail at singhsa3@yahoo.com. I will make sure to post a thank you note and results here once I received the document from you.

I am really shocked to see that several of us in our community are still ignorant about the magnamity of the Green card situation. Just this morning, I was talking to one my friend urging him to participate actively in the IV efforts and the answer I got was, "What for? , now that my I-485 is filed, I should get my greencard in a year." His PD is April 2006.

So, we must present a clear and concise picture of the actual situation. Hence, I need help of some smart people on this forum.

Given the status quo, I am looking for projections on how long it will take one to get Green Card decision if one's PD are
EB-2 | Eb-3
July-01 | July-01
Jan-02 | Jan-02
July-02 | July-02
Jan-03 | Jan-03
July-03 | July-03
Jan-04 | Jan-04
July-04 | July-04
Jan-05 | Jan-05
July-05 | July-05
Jan-06 | Jan-06
July-06 | July-06
Jan-07 | Jan-07
July-07 | July-07

PLEASE CLEARLY STATE YOUR ASSUMPTIONS and Send it in an Excel document. Appropriate credit will be given to your work.

Your help is appreciated in advance.
Thanks
Sanjeev
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Last edited by singhsa3; 08-11-2007 at 11:18 AM.
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 08-11-2007, 01:51 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Nov-05
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:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
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:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/02/2007
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Default

Folks,
Need this urgently as we plan to put these statistics in certain fliers. Call me at 973-448-7734, if you want to discuss this or have any questions.
Thanks
Sanjeev
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 08-13-2007, 03:28 PM
apb apb is offline
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Priority Date
:
Mar-04
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EB2
I140 Mailed Date
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03/18/2006
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India
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I485 Mailed Date
:
07/17/2007
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apb is a splendid one to behold apb is a splendid one to behold apb is a splendid one to behold apb is a splendid one to behold apb is a splendid one to behold apb is a splendid one to behold apb is a splendid one to behold
Default I am no expert.. but here is my optimistic guess

ASSUMING NO DELAY IN NAME CHECK

EB-3 | Eb-2
July-01 | July-01 6 months/6months
Jan-02 | Jan-02 6 months/6months
July-02 | July-02 1 year/6 months
Jan-03 | Jan-03 1 year/6 months
July-03 | July-03 1 Year /1 Year
Jan-04 | Jan-04 2 Year /1 Year
July-04 | July-04 2.5 Year /2 Year
Jan-05 | Jan-05 4 Year /3 Year
July-05 | July-05 4.5 Year /4 Year
Jan-06 | Jan-06 6 Year /6 Year -- Since there are many with EB2
July-06 | July-06 7 Year /6.5 Year
Jan-07 | Jan-07 8 Plus years
July-07 | July-07 8 Plus years
__________________
http://www.cafepress.com/immivoice
EB2 - India
PD - Mar/2004
I 140 approved
I 485 Date received July/20/2007
RD July/20/2007
ND Aug/17/2007
FP Oct/5/2007
EAD/AP - Received
GC interview date Nov/2009
GC approved Feb/17/2010

If my post has been helpful, please consider contributing to immigrationvoice. It will help us continue this effort and serve the community. Thank you.

Last edited by apb; 08-13-2007 at 03:49 PM.
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 08-13-2007, 03:47 PM
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Jul-06
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gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by apb View Post
ASSUMING NO DELAY IN NAME CHECK

EB-2 | Eb-3
July-01 | July-01 6 months/6months
Jan-02 | Jan-02 6 months/6months
July-02 | July-02 1 year/6 months
Jan-03 | Jan-03 1 year/6 months
July-03 | July-03 1 Year /1 Year
Jan-04 | Jan-04 2 Year /1 Year
July-04 | July-04 2.5 Year /2 Year
Jan-05 | Jan-05 4 Year /3 Year
July-05 | July-05 4.5 Year /4 Year
Jan-06 | Jan-06 6 Year /6 Year -- Since there are many with EB2
July-06 | July-06 7 Year /6.5 Year
Jan-07 | Jan-07 8 Plus years
July-07 | July-07 8 Plus years
1. have you flipped EB2/EB3 around? If not, why would July 02 EB2 take longer than July 02 EB3?

2. April 05 to December 05 (the first year of PERM) there were very few filings, so atleast in that period the dates should move fast (see data collected by yabadaba in some other thread here).

3. After approving a massive 60K number of visas in the June/July with 25K or so Indians, the PD for India is apparently going to be back where we started from in January!! That flood of approvals did not make a dent in the PD! So these dates do seem rather optimistic, especially if there is no spillover again and USCIS approves only 9K Indians per year (like they did in 2006)
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 08-13-2007, 03:49 PM
apb apb is offline
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Priority Date
:
Mar-04
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I140 Mailed Date
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03/18/2006
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Processing Stage
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I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/17/2007
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 286
apb is a splendid one to behold apb is a splendid one to behold apb is a splendid one to behold apb is a splendid one to behold apb is a splendid one to behold apb is a splendid one to behold apb is a splendid one to behold
Default It is my mistake.

Yes I did flipped EB2/3.
I re-flipped EB2/EB3 now

Also the BPEC should have processed all applications by Oct/07. These are with PDs in 02/03
The processing centers normally take around 6 months even to touch our applications after receipting.
__________________
http://www.cafepress.com/immivoice
EB2 - India
PD - Mar/2004
I 140 approved
I 485 Date received July/20/2007
RD July/20/2007
ND Aug/17/2007
FP Oct/5/2007
EAD/AP - Received
GC interview date Nov/2009
GC approved Feb/17/2010

If my post has been helpful, please consider contributing to immigrationvoice. It will help us continue this effort and serve the community. Thank you.

Last edited by apb; 08-13-2007 at 03:53 PM.
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 08-13-2007, 07:15 PM
Member
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Oct-06
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chakalov is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

What about ROW.?
__________________
EB3 - ROW
PD: Nov '06
I-140: 07/25/07
I-485: mailed:07/18/07 NSC
LUD (I-485): waiting
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 08-13-2007, 08:53 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Nov-05
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
03/01/2007
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:
India
Processing Stage
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I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/02/2007
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Posts: 872
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Default This is what I have so far

Fact Sheet: Who's Looking Out for You?

Green Card Visa Numbers Situation
• The GC process involves Labor Certification (2-3 months) + I-140 (0-12 Months) + Wait for priority dates to become current (several years) + security checks (1 month to 2 years) + I-485 processing once priority dates become current (18 months to 3 years).
• Yearly green cards quota for employment based applicants is 140,000. This includes visas for spouses and children. So on an average; it is given to ~ 60,000 families.
• Country visas limit is 7%, with almost equal distribution for EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 plus any unused visas from other countries. Generally speaking, for countries like India, approximately 7000 visas (~3000 families) were being issued every year in each of these categories.
• It is estimated that approximately 500K+ (yes 500K) I-485 applications under skilled worker category were filed between July 2nd and August 17th 2007. Most of these applications were from people of India and China.
• If you were unmarried at the time of filing, you will need to continue on current status (e.g. H-1B) otherwise you cannot bring your spouse.
• Employment Based Immigration reforms do not find enough support on the senate floors (Failure of SKIL, STEM etc Bills). As a matter of fact, it does not even get enough support to make it debatable, let alone final voting on the bills.
• USCIS is a self-funded organization i.e. it is run on fees it receives and is short on resources.

What do these jargons mean?
• Priority dates (PD) will remain retrogressed for several years.
• Those who could not file their I-485 now will now have to waitttttt…..
• Due to resource constraints, security checks may take years.
• Once PD becomes current, it takes on an average 1 year to 3 years to get approval.
• Endless cycle of EAD renewals and Advance paroles.
• If working on EAD and for any reason, if any of your EAD gets rejected, you will need to stop working, In other words, need to leave your job.
• You need to be in the same position with same job responsibilities for an indefinite time period otherwise you Green Card application will be rejected.
• EADs are valid for one year and several employers (and rightly so) view it as a temporary permit and hence reluctant to hire you.
• Once PD becomes current, it takes on an average 1 year to 3 years to get approval.
• So virtually you have three options: a) Struggle for several years b) Leave the USA c) Join us.
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 08-13-2007, 09:02 PM
Member
Priority Date
:
Aug-04
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
10/30/2006
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:
India
Processing Stage
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I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/02/2007
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Posts: 51
keshtwo is a jewel in the rough keshtwo is a jewel in the rough keshtwo is a jewel in the rough
Default Need more data before a guess.

We know for a fact that 18k Eb3 (India) people were issued visas this June-July due to spillover + std quota. What is the same number for China and Mexico? Also we need to know how many Eb2s were issued. If anyone can list that, it would be great, and we can extrapolate from that.

Last edited by keshtwo; 08-13-2007 at 09:05 PM.
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  #9 (permalink)  
Old 08-13-2007, 09:11 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Nov-05
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
03/01/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
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I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/02/2007
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 872
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Default

Whats the average over last 7 years? Plus where did you get this 18K number from? Also what happened in June July was more an exception than a rule and hence cannot be extrapolated.
Quote:
Originally Posted by keshtwo View Post
We know for a fact that 18k Eb3 (India) people were issued visas this June-July due to spillover + std quota. What is the same number for China and Mexico? Also we need to know how many Eb2s were issued. If anyone can list that, it would be great, and we can extrapolate from that.
__________________
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Last edited by singhsa3; 08-13-2007 at 09:19 PM.
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  #10 (permalink)  
Old 08-13-2007, 10:22 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Nov-05
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
03/01/2007
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:
India
Processing Stage
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I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/02/2007
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Posts: 872
singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Brother,
I will correct my post if you can please point out the source that it is not 500K and not even close to 30% of 500K. My source is postings by Greg Siskind and Matthew Oh.


Quote:
Originally Posted by GC_hoga_re View Post
......i know quite a few persons with Nov-Dec 2004 PD who got their actual GCs (yes, the ACTUAL cards).

so please stop throwing around the 500K+ number, its bogus, and people should know better than to refer to it.

gimme a break, there is enough of this prophetic nonsense around. stop scaring people without cause, just because you are paranoid and cant take the pressure.

according to the "experts" posting here, it would seem that every indian gets to apply for a GC. i have seen data related to the PERM approvals, that number is NOT EVEN CLOSE to 500K+. not even close to 30% of 500K+.

relax, take it easy, and do your work.

peace.
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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 08-13-2007, 10:31 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Nov-05
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
03/01/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/02/2007
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 872
singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute
Default

What about cases from BEC, remember PERM came in affect only in Mar'05.
There are around 200K+ cases from BEC
Quote:
Originally Posted by GC_hoga_re View Post
here you go....

http://www.immigration.com/newsletter1/dolstatperm.pdf

i am referring to the part of EB certifications that correspond to India......this is 2 years' worth of data......please tell me where is it that you and i are interpreting it differently ??

i say about 33% of these total cases can be indian. so say, if there are 3 persons per family, then roughly 200K cases for india from 2005-2007 roughly.......
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 08-13-2007, 10:34 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Nov-05
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
03/01/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/02/2007
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Join Date: Sep 2006
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singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Also for PERM only cases , which is 162K, total number of applicant will be 162*3= 486 , this includes spouse and children
Quote:
Originally Posted by singhsa3 View Post
What about cases from BEC, remember PERM came in affect only in Mar'05.
There are around 200K+ cases from BEC
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 08-13-2007, 10:36 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
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Nov-05
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I140 Mailed Date
:
03/01/2007
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India
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I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/02/2007
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singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Why are you insisting on India?
Quote:
Originally Posted by GC_hoga_re View Post
but they are not all from India !!
i say 30% is a good percentage to attach, when considering India versus total.

so my number is close to about (30% of 200K)+(30% of 180K), then this number times 3 per family. thus, effectively, about 350-380K cases.....
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  #14 (permalink)  
Old 08-13-2007, 10:39 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Nov-05
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I140 Mailed Date
:
03/01/2007
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:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/02/2007
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singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute singhsa3 has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Per your formula, The number is 432K , and thats only for India. Shouldn't I be paranoid now??
Quote:
Originally Posted by GC_hoga_re View Post
but they are not all from India !!
i say 30% is a good percentage to attach, when considering India versus total.

so my number is close to about (30% of 200K)+(30% of 180K), then this number times 3 per family. thus, effectively, about 350-380K cases.....
__________________
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Last edited by singhsa3; 02-21-2008 at 04:43 PM.
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  #15 (permalink)  
Old 08-13-2007, 10:45 PM
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plassey is a name known to all plassey is a name known to all plassey is a name known to all plassey is a name known to all plassey is a name known to all plassey is a name known to all
Default

He had written BEC cases 200 but probably was thinking 300. It is actually 300. But anyways, the fact of the matter is that there is a huge back log.
The situation was much better couple of years ago as all the backlog was at labor certification stage.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GC_hoga_re View Post
errr...no ?
the number would be close to about 350 to 380......depending on whether you use 30% or 33% as your number.......

still....when has it been better than this......???
the india line has always had a massive backlog like this, has it not? so whats new or worse this time around ?
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