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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #841 (permalink)  
Old 01-22-2009, 11:31 AM
jsb jsb is offline
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Originally Posted by hindu_king View Post
Get an FHA loan and you can put down-payment as little as 3.5% for 30 yr fixed rate FHA loan. This way, if the prices crash even more and if you have to leave to India due to job-loss/no GC etc in worst case scenario, you can dump the house and you wont lose much money. Key is not to put a lot of down payment - like 20%, as you will lose all the money in case something goes seriously wrong. My advise is buy a house but have an exit strategy.
I am not sure if FHA loan is available for "temporary workers", with no GC. For low down payments, note that you will be paying mortgage insurance too.

For the exit strategy mentioned above, which in a nutshell means, just runaway from the country with the debt you owe. For that plan, you may even consider applying as many credit cards as you can, and then borrow to the fullest, before exiting. No doubt, , debt collectors will be looking for you, for mortgage and credit card debts, in India/China.
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  #842 (permalink)  
Old 01-22-2009, 11:54 AM
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Originally Posted by jsb View Post
I am not sure if FHA loan is available for "temporary workers", with no GC. For low down payments, note that you will be paying mortgage insurance too.

For the exit strategy mentioned above, which in a nutshell means, just runaway from the country with the debt you owe. For that plan, you may even consider applying as many credit cards as you can, and then borrow to the fullest, before exiting. No doubt, , debt collectors will be looking for you, for mortgage and credit card debts, in India/China.
File "Bankruptcy" and leave.
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  #843 (permalink)  
Old 01-22-2009, 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by jsb View Post
True value and market value are two different things. True value is the price based on very long term trend. Market value could be higher or lower based on changing circumstances within a shorter period (that is 5-10 years time span). In above example, if 320K is the true value, no one wants to sell at that price (it is always a sellers market - even now), as powerfuls can afford to keep/increase their profit using whatever means they can use. You have two choices, buy at 350K (and accept that you have foregone next 3years 3X4= 12% gain, i.e. don't expect to make any gain for 3 years), or wait. It is quite possible that if you choose to wait, you might end up buying the same place after 3 years for 350K or more. There is a powerful force of vested interests to keep prices propped up.

This is not an exact science, you just try to time and maximize what you value most.
But what is the base for true value? Isn't it what it was sold long time ago , from which you are adding the appreciation? Hence it is the market value?

So far those powerful forces have failed to stop the sliding prices. I do feel those powerful forces cannot stop the slide, even with government help. And it is quite possible that if you wait for 3 years, you may see that house for 250K. I just heard cnbc say that there are 15 million vacant houses and it would take years to clear that kind of inventory.
Meanwhile first time loss posted by intel in 21 years + 5000 layoffs and microsoft just announced 5000 layoff. Anyone who thinks this is some ordinary downturn is in a deep delusion.

Last edited by nojoke; 01-22-2009 at 12:36 PM.
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  #844 (permalink)  
Old 01-22-2009, 12:42 PM
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Originally Posted by hindu_king View Post
Get an FHA loan and you can put down-payment as little as 3.5% for 30 yr fixed rate FHA loan. This way, if the prices crash even more and if you have to leave to India due to job-loss/no GC etc in worst case scenario, you can dump the house and you wont lose much money. Key is not to put a lot of down payment - like 20%, as you will lose all the money in case something goes seriously wrong. My advise is buy a house but have an exit strategy.
Good luck getting a loan with 3.5 down payment. Min is 10% with insurance these days. 20% if no insurance
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  #845 (permalink)  
Old 01-22-2009, 12:56 PM
jsb jsb is offline
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Default GC for Real Estate

See this link for getting GC quicker.

http://www.sofiaecho.com/article/inv...34054/catid_68
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  #846 (permalink)  
Old 01-22-2009, 12:56 PM
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Originally Posted by nojoke View Post
But what is the base for true value? Isn't it what it was sold long time ago , from which you are adding the appreciation? Hence it is the market value?

So far those powerful forces have failed to stop the sliding prices. I do feel those powerful forces cannot stop the slide, even with government help. And it is quite possible that if you wait for 3 years, you may see that house for 250K. I just heard cnbc say that there are 15 million vacant houses and it would take years to clear that kind of inventory.
Meanwhile first time loss posted by intel in 21 years + 5000 layoffs and microsoft just announced 5000 layoff. Anyone who thinks this is some ordinary downturn is in a deep delusion.
I think you should bid some foreclosed/short sale property to judge the power of "powerful forces" or should visit some auction. In US, still many people have lot of money; and they are still in the game. It is like gambling in casino. As no casinos are empty in vegas, similarly real estate investors as well. As you predict, if the economy goes to deep shit in future, then you and me cannot live here, even if we have citizenship. And only those people is clinging to their gun can survive. If economy goes so bad even you can not protect your wealth/house. If you can't protect it it is not yours. So Hope for best. Fear or Hope it is our choice, as Obama said.
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  #847 (permalink)  
Old 01-22-2009, 01:02 PM
jsb jsb is offline
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Originally Posted by nojoke View Post
But what is the base for true value? Isn't it what it was sold long time ago , from which you are adding the appreciation? Hence it is the market value?

So far those powerful forces have failed to stop the sliding prices. I do feel those powerful forces cannot stop the slide, even with government help. And it is quite possible that if you wait for 3 years, you may see that house for 250K. I just heard cnbc say that there are 15 million vacant houses and it would take years to clear that kind of inventory.
Meanwhile first time loss posted by intel in 21 years + 5000 layoffs and microsoft just announced 5000 layoff. Anyone who thinks this is some ordinary downturn is in a deep delusion.
True value is where price touches the very long time trend line, and you add about 4-5% per year to it (for inflation and development, such as schools, roads etc.)

What you say is entirely possible, when pendulum is moved far away from equilibrium, it overshoots in the other direction before it finally settles. Prices could really precipitate. However, due to vested interest of large number of home owners, people with deep pockets, govt, etc., may be able to halt it, or slow down, but when and where, we don't know. If you are the one who plays very safe, it is not time to buy. But do we always play very safe? Havn't you ever overspeeded?
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  #848 (permalink)  
Old 01-22-2009, 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Ramba View Post
I think you should bid some foreclosed/short sale property to judge the power of "powerful forces" or should visit some auction. In US, still many people have lot of money; and they are still in the game. It is like gambling in casino. As no casinos are empty in vegas, similarly real estate investors as well. As you predict, if the economy goes to deep shit in future, then you and me cannot live here, even if we have citizenship. And only those people is clinging to their gun can survive. If economy goes so bad even you can not protect your wealth/house. If you can't protect it it is not yours. So Hope for best. Fear or Hope it is our choice, as Obama said.
Is it either black or white and nothing in between? How about housing go down and rest of your predictions are not coming true? I see a very high chance for this.
According to you, there won't be any foreclosure houses on the market, because they will be snatched as soon as they go into the market. But I see banks holding inventories for a long long time, even is bay area. Want to see some links in craigslist?
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  #849 (permalink)  
Old 01-22-2009, 01:10 PM
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Originally Posted by jsb View Post
True value is where price touches the very long time trend line, and you add about 4-5% per year to it (for inflation and development, such as schools, roads etc.)

What you say is entirely possible, when pendulum is moved far away from equilibrium, it overshoots in the other direction before it finally settles. Prices could really precipitate. However, due to vested interest of large number of home owners, people with deep pockets, govt, etc., may be able to halt it, or slow down, but when and where, we don't know. If you are the one who plays very safe, it is not time to buy. But do we always play very safe? Havn't you ever overspeeded?
You and I view this differently. I see it is very risky buying now, just like catching a falling knife. I know for sure it is going to cut the hand. You view this as speeding on a road, which is relatively safe.
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  #850 (permalink)  
Old 01-22-2009, 01:14 PM
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Originally Posted by nojoke View Post
Is it either black or white and nothing in between? How about housing go down and rest of your predictions are not coming true? I see a very high chance for this.
According to you, there won't be any foreclosure houses on the market, because they will be snatched as soon as they go into the market. But I see banks holding inventories for a long long time, even is bay area. Want to see some links in craigslist?
Yes. Banks are sitting on lot of inventories for long time. But it does not mean that they will through the property for the low ball offer. They are also playing the game. If they have loaned 500K for a house, they wont just sell it for 200K. The housing market crisis is the main source of current economic condition. Both are independent. If economy booms, and microsoft hires another 6,000 employees in Seatile, do you still belive the house value still stay in the current level? Absolutly no.
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  #851 (permalink)  
Old 01-22-2009, 01:15 PM
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nojoke,

Saying that you may see that house for 250K in 3 years is a bit far fetched. My concern here is government will try its best to keep the home prices bloated for a long time. Obama hopes to mark some or lot of the spending spree to solve the mortgage crisis. That means doing all you can to keep people in their existing homes. Changing loans to 40 years, Forgiving amount of depreciation, So that people pay mortgage on the current value of their house and not what they paid for . In the short term this may decrease the foreclosures and hence stabilize the home market.

If they do all this, Home prices may not start going up but will stay flat for a long time.. Once the gov stops pumping money, You will again potentially see a fall.

One more thing to note, Once any bubble bursts. These rich guys on the top who anyways create these bubbles and make money at the cost of middle class people like you and me, Look for other areas to create bubbles. So i really doubt we will have another housing bubble anytime soon. The old saying "Trick me once, shame on you. Trick me twice, shame on me"

Take the tech market bubble bust. During the peak NASDAQ was way over 5000, and after the crash people said in 2/3 years time NASDAQ will go back to 5000. I think in the last 9 years NASDAQ never crossed 3000 even in the recent boom we had.


So from what i see, I expect home prices to stay flat for a long time. As i said there will be some other bubble in some other sector where people will make/lose money. So i would think early next year with combination of low interest rates should be a good time to buy.

I say early next year because that would be decent time to see how Obama's spending affects the overall home market.


On a light note the following describes really well how bubbles are created, And how middle class people get sucked into it ..Enjoy

"Once upon a time in a village in India, a man announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10.

The villagers seeing there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them.


The man bought thousands at $10, but, as the supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their efforts. The man further announced that he would now buy at $20. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again.

Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer rate increased to $25 and the supply of monkeys became so little that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch it!

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at $50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now act as buyer, on his behalf.

In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers: 'Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at $35 and when he returns from the city, you can sell them back to him for $50.'

The villagers squeezed together their savings and bought all the monkeys.

Then they never saw the man or his assistant again, only monkeys everywhere!
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Last edited by suavesandeep; 01-22-2009 at 01:18 PM.
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  #852 (permalink)  
Old 01-22-2009, 01:22 PM
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nojoke is infamous around these parts nojoke is infamous around these parts nojoke is infamous around these parts nojoke is infamous around these parts nojoke is infamous around these parts nojoke is infamous around these parts nojoke is infamous around these parts
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Originally Posted by Ramba View Post
Yes. Banks are sitting on lot of inventories for long time. But it does not mean that they will through the property for the low ball offer. They are also playing the game. If they have loaned 500K for a house, they wont just sell it for 200K. The housing market crisis is the main source of current economic condition. Both are independent. If economy booms, and microsoft hires another 6,000 employees in Seatile, do you still belive the house value still stay in the current level? Absolutly no.
I see it the other way. Housing is a symptom of an underlying problem. People spent their money due to housing boom and once that party is over, the economy reflects what it should have been.
So there will be bids only if the house is priced right(at the current market value). I agree with that 100%. But the 'market value' is going down faster for the past few months.
And housing will not jump up for sometime, at least for 3/4 years.
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  #853 (permalink)  
Old 01-22-2009, 01:46 PM
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Ramba has a brilliant future Ramba has a brilliant future Ramba has a brilliant future Ramba has a brilliant future Ramba has a brilliant future Ramba has a brilliant future Ramba has a brilliant future Ramba has a brilliant future Ramba has a brilliant future Ramba has a brilliant future Ramba has a brilliant future
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Originally Posted by suavesandeep View Post
nojoke,

Saying that you may see that house for 250K in 3 years is a bit far fetched. My concern here is government will try its best to keep the home prices bloated for a long time. Obama hopes to mark some or lot of the spending spree to solve the mortgage crisis. That means doing all you can to keep people in their existing homes. Changing loans to 40 years, Forgiving amount of depreciation, So that people pay mortgage on the current value of their house and not what they paid for . In the short term this may decrease the foreclosures and hence stabilize the home market.

If they do all this, Home prices may not start going up but will stay flat for a long time.. Once the gov stops pumping money, You will again potentially see a fall.

One more thing to note, Once any bubble bursts. These rich guys on the top who anyways create these bubbles and make money at the cost of middle class people like you and me, Look for other areas to create bubbles. So i really doubt we will have another housing bubble anytime soon. The old saying "Trick me once, shame on you. Trick me twice, shame on me"

Take the tech market bubble bust. During the peak NASDAQ was way over 5000, and after the crash people said in 2/3 years time NASDAQ will go back to 5000. I think in the last 9 years NASDAQ never crossed 3000 even in the recent boom we had.


So from what i see, I expect home prices to stay flat for a long time. As i said there will be some other bubble in some other sector where people will make/lose money. So i would think early next year with combination of low interest rates should be a good time to buy.

I say early next year because that would be decent time to see how Obama's spending affects the overall home market.


On a light note the following describes really well how bubbles are created, And how middle class people get sucked into it ..Enjoy

"Once upon a time in a village in India, a man announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10.

The villagers seeing there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them.


The man bought thousands at $10, but, as the supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their efforts. The man further announced that he would now buy at $20. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again.

Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer rate increased to $25 and the supply of monkeys became so little that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch it!

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at $50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now act as buyer, on his behalf.

In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers: 'Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at $35 and when he returns from the city, you can sell them back to him for $50.'

The villagers squeezed together their savings and bought all the monkeys.

Then they never saw the man or his assistant again, only monkeys everywhere!
Very good monkey story. I cant controll my laugh.
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  #854 (permalink)  
Old 01-22-2009, 03:06 PM
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Assuming I pay $2000 for mortgage ( I believe the property tax is also deductible, which is 1% in county that I'm looking at) , that'd stack up to $24k/yr, from my experience with 2 mortgages in India, first 3-5 years, 95% of what you pay goes to the interest , so that makes around $22k a year , which is significantly higher than the standard deduction and with two people working, you can easily reach the $12k just with CA state taxes. Utilities, yes, I agree, din't know it'd hit 5x of what we have now, I was more hoping for 3x max, but that can be offset with the tax benefits that you might get.

From the financial perspective, it's better to buy a house than rent if the difference between the payments is around $200-$300, that's just my thought, and if you can, you may want to pay more than the mortgage amount each month, so that you build some equity, you pay rent, you're contributing towards your landlord's equity.


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Originally Posted by jsb View Post
Note that you significantly benefit on tax only if Interest, Real Estate taxes, etc., you pay are substantially higher than what you may claim as standard deduction, which is something around $12K for a married couple. Mortgage payment you make has Interest and Principle components. Tax benefit is only on the Interest part. Further, you have to pay utilites, which may be another $500 per month. Keep these factors in mind while considering buying a home.
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  #855 (permalink)  
Old 01-22-2009, 03:22 PM
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Originally Posted by div_bell_2003 View Post
Assuming I pay $2000 for mortgage ( I believe the property tax is also deductible, which is 1% in county that I'm looking at) , that'd stack up to $24k/yr, from my experience with 2 mortgages in India, first 3-5 years, 95% of what you pay goes to the interest , so that makes around $22k a year , which is significantly higher than the standard deduction and with two people working, you can easily reach the $12k just with CA state taxes. Utilities, yes, I agree, din't know it'd hit 5x of what we have now, I was more hoping for 3x max, but that can be offset with the tax benefits that you might get.

From the financial perspective, it's better to buy a house than rent if the difference between the payments is around $200-$300, that's just my thought, and if you can, you may want to pay more than the mortgage amount each month, so that you build some equity, you pay rent, you're contributing towards your landlord's equity.
And if you take mortgage, you pay the mortgage investor the return on his investment in the form of interest. I don't see a difference..
On the other hand if rent is close to mortgage, as you had suggested, then it is a good deal.
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