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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #886 (permalink)  
Old 02-04-2009, 01:48 PM
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Originally Posted by albertpinto View Post
.......
Current home buyers can also expect to take a big hit when they sell their house a few years from now when we no longer are giving out $15k checks to home buyers and mortgage rates at back at 7 percent.
By and large, and statistically speaking, current prices are approximately 15% higher than where should have been based on a very long term trend line of 5% linear increase, which has been hard to defeat. Prices have always returned back to this line. If you buy today, again statistically speaking, you will be buying at 2012 prices. Between now and 2012 two opposing forces, one to bring prices down where they should have been, and the other the propping force by vested interests to keep them high, will continue. No one can be sure how they will work during these 3 years. In worst situation you could loose 15% of value in 2009, 10% value by 2010, or 5% value by 2011. This is all (or more than) the downpayment many want to make. But the propping forces (bottom fisher investors, govt plans, etc. which are quite strong) might control drops in prices, which minimizes risk mentioned above.

Bottom line is that if your time horizon is beyond 2012 you have little risk. Nevetheless, as Suzie Orman always suggests, if you are serious about buying a home, make a very very low offer, at least 15% below asking, (no matter how seller or agent ridicules your offer). Don't fall in love with any home, and overpay (as part of negotiations). Keep trying until it clicks. You need just one motivated seller at your terms. Out of 100's it should not be difficult to find one, you just need to be patient.
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  #887 (permalink)  
Old 02-04-2009, 03:10 PM
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Originally Posted by jsb View Post
By and large, and statistically speaking, current prices are approximately 15% higher than where should have been based on a very long term trend line of 5% linear increase, which has been hard to defeat. Prices have always returned back to this line. If you buy today, again statistically speaking, you will be buying at 2012 prices. Between now and 2012 two opposing forces, one to bring prices down where they should have been, and the other the propping force by vested interests to keep them high, will continue. No one can be sure how they will work during these 3 years. In worst situation you could loose 15% of value in 2009, 10% value by 2010, or 5% value by 2011. This is all (or more than) the downpayment many want to make. But the propping forces (bottom fisher investors, govt plans, etc. which are quite strong) might control drops in prices, which minimizes risk mentioned above.

Bottom line is that if your time horizon is beyond 2012 you have little risk. Nevetheless, as Suzie Orman always suggests, if you are serious about buying a home, make a very very low offer, at least 15% below asking, (no matter how seller or agent ridicules your offer). Don't fall in love with any home, and overpay (as part of negotiations). Keep trying until it clicks. You need just one motivated seller at your terms. Out of 100's it should not be difficult to find one, you just need to be patient.
No one can be sure? But you know the worst case scenario?
Where did you get the 15% value? I don't think it is true for bay area. Bay area has seen 20%, 100% increases during the bubble years.
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  #888 (permalink)  
Old 02-04-2009, 03:39 PM
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Originally Posted by nojoke View Post
No one can be sure? But you know the worst case scenario?
Where did you get the 15% value? I don't think it is true for bay area. Bay area has seen 20%, 100% increases during the bubble years.
I did not indicate past drop. I mentioned 15% as further drop from today's price.

In any case, no one knows the future for sure. Based on analysis explained above, most probable analytic situation tells it to be 15% drop. How do I get this number? It is explained in my post above, but I'll repeat it briefly. Current prices are about 15% above the long term trend line (which shows long term prices increase at 5%/yr rate, although temporary conditions keep prices above/below this line. In 2002-2006 prices were way above this line - at one point about 100% above). Two forces in opposite direction are acting on prices. If prop (which keeps prices up) buckles and sudden price drop happens, like a pendulum, it could swing below the trend line (making it downward movement more than 15%). Therefore, more than 15% is also likely but less probable.

These analysis are statistical, and do not explain specific situations, which, like binomial distribution, are present around the most likely situation.

Last edited by jsb; 02-04-2009 at 03:42 PM.
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  #889 (permalink)  
Old 02-04-2009, 04:02 PM
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Originally Posted by jsb View Post
I did not indicate past drop. I mentioned 15% as further drop from today's price.
I know. If bay area has seen 50% to 100% increases, shouldn't it drop by 50%. Why just 15%. Are you saying this for the national average?

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Originally Posted by jsb View Post
In any case, no one knows the future for sure. Based on analysis explained above, most probable analytic situation tells it to be 15% drop. How do I get this number? It is explained in my post above, but I'll repeat it briefly. Current prices are about 15% above the long term trend line (which shows long term prices increase at 5%/yr rate, although temporary conditions keep prices above/below this line. In 2002-2006 prices were way above this line - at one point about 100% above). Two forces in opposite direction are acting on prices. If prop (which keeps prices up) buckles and sudden price drop happens, like a pendulum, it could swing below the trend line (making it downward movement more than 15%). Therefore, more than 15% is also likely but less probable.

These analysis are statistical, and do not explain specific situations, which, like binomial distribution, are present around the most likely situation.
long term price increases from which year. Is it 1998 or 2005? If you take 2005, as the base price then there were speculation even before that. So should we take 1996 price as the base price and calculate the 5% increase over the years? But in any case, these are extrodinary times and the trend lines fall apart. We are in for a very rough ride.

Last edited by nojoke; 02-04-2009 at 04:13 PM.
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  #890 (permalink)  
Old 02-04-2009, 04:17 PM
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Originally Posted by nojoke View Post
I know.
long term price increases from which year. Is it 1998 or 2005? If you take 2005, as the base price then there were speculation even before that. So should we take 1996 price as the base price and calculate the 5% increase over the years? But in any case, these are extrodinary times and the trend lines fall apart. We are in for a very rough ride.
Long term means starting in the 1800's. See my earlier posts, or read literature. In 1997 prices were touching this trend line. Long term trend line suggests price increase at the rate of inflation + 2% for development, making it about 5%. 2002-2006 prices were way over the trend line (clearly suggesting upcoming snap action, which no one wanted to believe in, as thinking of losing vast un-earned wealth was not a pleasant thought). On short term (4-5 years) basis, if prices are way off the trend line, forces can work in a haphazard manner. If current (2009) prices stay for another 3 years, they will re-touch the trend tline, but currently they are propped up by about 15% (again this a statistical number). Prop could suddenly buckle bringing prices not only to the trend line, but below it like a pendulum. However, prop forces are quite strong. Vested interests want to keep prices up.
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  #891 (permalink)  
Old 02-04-2009, 04:43 PM
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Originally Posted by jsb;315108[B
]Long term means starting in the 1800's. See my earlier posts, or read literature. [/b]In 1997 prices were touching this trend line. Long term trend line suggests price increase at the rate of inflation + 2% for development, making it about 5%. 2002-2006 prices were way over the trend line (clearly suggesting upcoming snap action, which no one wanted to believe in, as thinking of losing vast un-earned wealth was not a pleasant thought). On short term (4-5 years) basis, if prices are way off the trend line, forces can work in a haphazard manner. If current (2009) prices stay for another 3 years, they will re-touch the trend tline, but currently they are propped up by about 15% (again this a statistical number). Prop could suddenly buckle bringing prices not only to the trend line, but below it like a pendulum. However, prop forces are quite strong. Vested interests want to keep prices up.
Is this what you are saying as the trend line?
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6...00/shiller.gif
It looks a lot more than 15%. If you have a more recent data other than this, care to share?
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  #892 (permalink)  
Old 02-04-2009, 04:48 PM
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Originally Posted by nojoke View Post
Is this what you are saying as the trend line?
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6...00/shiller.gif
It looks a lot more than 15%. If you have a more recent data other than this, care to share?

I got another trend line which to me looks like minimum 25% price correction
http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/
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  #893 (permalink)  
Old 02-04-2009, 05:17 PM
jsb jsb is offline
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Originally Posted by nojoke View Post
I got another trend line which to me looks like minimum 25% price correction
http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/
This link provides a good (not too long term) trend line. Blue line is the one which should be used, as this one relates to real prices (without inflation adjustment). Prices, of course, deviate from trend lines, but at some point they do return to it. Smart people take advantage of these deviations, but general folks misunderstand these deviations as change of trend lines, and endup getting caught with paying (for 30 years) for those who made money and got out.

As the graph suggests, prices may continue to decline and may go below the trend line (a straight line touching price points at 1975 and 1997 prices - this line meets the long term priceline) over the next 1-2 years, resulting in upward force, and therefore, trend reversal

Last edited by jsb; 02-04-2009 at 05:22 PM.
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  #894 (permalink)  
Old 02-04-2009, 06:02 PM
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Originally Posted by jsb View Post
This link provides a good (not too long term) trend line. Blue line is the one which should be used, as this one relates to real prices (without inflation adjustment). Prices, of course, deviate from trend lines, but at some point they do return to it. Smart people take advantage of these deviations, but general folks misunderstand these deviations as change of trend lines, and endup getting caught with paying (for 30 years) for those who made money and got out.

As the graph suggests, prices may continue to decline and may go below the trend line (a straight line touching price points at 1975 and 1997 prices - this line meets the long term priceline) over the next 1-2 years, resulting in upward force, and therefore, trend reversal
Ok. so where is the 15% decline data? I see worst case as 30% and more. Look at the case shiller index graph. During great depression and world war II it went down significantly. Like I said, we are in extrodinary times and the history says there is going to be more pain. The forces that put downward pressure are very strong. Sorry, I don't think your prediction of 15% decline is the worst case scenario. If you have data to support the 15% decline theory, I will take back my prediction of 30% or more.
Bottom line- if the housing remains unaffordable, the prices will continue to fall. The government can give tax break and incentives to buy house. But they cannot continue to give the incentives forever. As the interest rate rises + Alt-A resets + unemployment rises + people tighten their belts to save + no equity to borrow and spend, it creates a perfect storm.
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  #895 (permalink)  
Old 02-04-2009, 08:24 PM
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Originally Posted by nojoke View Post
Ok. so where is the 15% decline data? I see worst case as 30% and more. Look at the case shiller index graph. During great depression and world war II it went down significantly. Like I said, we are in extrodinary times and the history says there is going to be more pain. The forces that put downward pressure are very strong. Sorry, I don't think your prediction of 15% decline is the worst case scenario. If you have data to support the 15% decline theory, I will take back my prediction of 30% or more.
Bottom line- if the housing remains unaffordable, the prices will continue to fall. The government can give tax break and incentives to buy house. But they cannot continue to give the incentives forever. As the interest rate rises + Alt-A resets + unemployment rises + people tighten their belts to save + no equity to borrow and spend, it creates a perfect storm.
Jsb, Nojoke,

Both are posting valuable data and information. Lets say, either one of your analysis may be right. That is, currently the average house price may be 15% or 30% overpriced, depends on location. How long do you think, it will take to reach the correct price (if at all it reaches, inflated adjusted right price) based on your theories? If it takes another 2 to 3 years, do you recommend not to buy till next 2 to 3 years?. Lets say, if you have a GC and stable job (? in this present economic condition, no job is stable), do you still recommend not to buy a house till it reaches the bottom most point, even if takes next 2 years?
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  #896 (permalink)  
Old 02-04-2009, 09:06 PM
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Ramba,

Until you get responses from jsb and Nojoke let me make a point in relation to your question.

Any investment(house can be thought of as an investment if one is worried about the loss in the market value of the house) has to be weighed in relation to the risk one is willing to take. For an average Bay Area house the price is 550 k, a similar house in the midwest is probably 200k. Assuming the rest of the factors are constant and If we assume that the average of 15% and 30% i.e. 22.5% can be the fall in price of a house, the question is what risk will the 22.5% fall of the house price will be to your total portfolio and are you willing to bear it and are financially ok if that happens.

My stress on risk tolerance is because, as you might have already seen from the past even the top "experts" in finance and economy miserably fail to predict the future, hence risk tolerance is one of the ways to make a judgement on what to do in the future. You can combine your risk tolerance with what you think will be the long term growth of the underlying asset(in this case house), based on your research and historical data and do extrapolation etc etc to make a final decision.

Remember the headline of this thread is "Buying house when I485 is pending", so there is an inherent assumption at least in this thread that when you get your GC approved, things get much more easier in regards to buying a house.

Last edited by Imigrait; 02-04-2009 at 09:47 PM.
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  #897 (permalink)  
Old 02-04-2009, 11:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Ramba View Post
Jsb, Nojoke,

Both are posting valuable data and information. Lets say, either one of your analysis may be right. That is, currently the average house price may be 15% or 30% overpriced, depends on location. How long do you think, it will take to reach the correct price (if at all it reaches, inflated adjusted right price) based on your theories? If it takes another 2 to 3 years, do you recommend not to buy till next 2 to 3 years?. Lets say, if you have a GC and stable job (? in this present economic condition, no job is stable), do you still recommend not to buy a house till it reaches the bottom most point, even if takes next 2 years?
Mercury news reported yesterday that the rate of depreciation has accelerated over the past 3 months in the bay area. It fell 17% in the last three months. That is 500K * 17% = 85K. If you buy the house today you gained 85K by not buying 3 months ago. It will continue to decline and if you don't care about the money you can go ahead. You cannot get everything in life because you want it. There are times when you should be cautious and this is one. If you say you don't want to wait and don't care about money, then I have no argument.
And these are not theories. You can ignore what is happening and call that they are theories, but the data clearly shows that the housing is crashing (at least in bay area). You don't have to wait for the house to reach bottom most point. If you feel that housing decline has slowed down enough and you are in a position to buy and want to buy, then is the right time.
Like I said, this is a perfect storm. You don't want to sail now...

Last edited by nojoke; 02-04-2009 at 11:34 PM.
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  #898 (permalink)  
Old 02-05-2009, 01:00 PM
jsb jsb is offline
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Article above posted by Albertpinto is very good and relevant. I am not familiar with the Bay area, which has seen more accesses than average. Home, like any investment, has risk component. There is no single advice for all. Factors effecting decisions are very subjective based on individual conditions and tolerances. While mentioning 15% further decline, I was reading charts referenced above. I also stated that if rate of decline accelerates, like a pendulum, price below the trend line are possible. It is like a wrestling match between two forces, the propping force (by govt and vested interests), and natural forces to bring prices where they should have been. Natural forces decline with time (as trend line moves up with inflation+development components). Propping forces also lose strength with time. It is difficult to predict about the outcome of this match.

If prices go below the trend line, which is likely, they will not stay below the line for very long. Why? Vested interests move in quickly to push prices higher. If they move too fast, we see what happened between 2000-2006.

In 2005-2006, someone considered himself lucky to get a home on any lot from a homebuilder for $800K with a lottery between many contenders, and join the get-rich-quick club. Now same person is having difficult time to find a buyer for the same home for $500K.

It is matter of time, when everyone is most pessimistic, buy. So keep a pessimism meter handy. When reading stops going higher, give about six months, to account for false short-term moves, and then buy.
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  #899 (permalink)  
Old 02-05-2009, 03:40 PM
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Default Todays news

U.S. Housing Slump Has ‘Just Begun,’ Says Forecaster Talbott

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...7Dw&refer=home

-------------------------------
So how far will the price of your home on the range fall? Citing historical data and trends, Talbott concludes that real prices should return to their average 1997 levels, adjusted for inflation. Why 1997? A 120-year historical graph shows that real home prices in the U.S. stayed relatively flat for 100 years, then began rising in 1981 and surged from 1997 to 2006.

A return to 1997 prices “would get us out of the heady, crazy days from 1997 to 2006 in which banks were lending large amounts of money under poor supervision and aggressive terms.”

..
His answer: “I don’t think so,” he says. “If I’m right, then this housing decline has only just begun.
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Old 02-05-2009, 03:49 PM
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Default More news

Nasty Bay Area Home Statistics Burst Forth
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29003390/

-------------------
"As more markets turn down and markets that were already down go deeper, the pace at which value is being erased from the U.S. housing stock is rapidly increasing, with more value wiped out in the fourth quarter of 2008 than was eliminated in all of 2007."
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