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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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Old 10-02-2006, 10:11 AM
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Angry Retrogression Expected to Get Worse Before It Gets Better

Article from shusterman.com

As recently as December 2004, all employment-based (EB) categories for permanent residence were "current". That is, there were no backlogs.
That all started to change in January 2005 when the EB-3 category (professionals and skilled workers) backlogged three years. These backlogs are referred to as the "retrogression".

The retrogression has gradually gotten worse during the past 21 months. The October 2006 State Department Visa Bulletin reveals that the EB-3 category has now retrogressed almost 4 1/2 years. The backlogs are even greater for persons born in India and Mexico. Even the EB-2 category for advanced-degreed professionals has backlogged for persons born in India and China. See


http://shusterman.com/vb.html

In the absence of congressional action, the retrogression will get worse, probably a lot worse, before it gets better. Why?
In May 2005, President Bush, recognizing the tremendous shortage of nurses and therapists, signed a bill which "recaptured" 50,000 immigrant visas for Schedule A professionals, primarily registered nurses, physical therapists and their family members. By the end of this month, all 50,000 visas will be used up. What will happen to RNs and PTs who are still in line for green cards and those who will apply for permanent residence in the future? They will be added to the EB-3 backlog which will result in increased waiting times, perhaps to five years or more.

The total number of persons who are permitted to obtain permanent residence each year in the employment-based categories is only 140,000. Adding another 30,000 - 50,000 to the current backlogs will certainly make the retrogression more severe.

Even more problematic are the 300,000+ applications for labor certification currently pending in the Labor Department's (DOL's) Backlog Elimination Centers. DOL has pledged to take action on each of these applications within the next 18 months. Even if only 200,000 of these applications are ultimately approved, if 50% of the applicants have a spouse and one child, the number of green cards needed to accommodate them would total 300,000. This is more than double the annual cap on EB green cards. Therefore, this has the potential to make the EB-2 and EB-3 numbers regress another two years.

Finally, present laws contain hard per-country caps. This means that countries like India and China which have populations of over one billion persons each have exactly the same quotas as Monaco and Mauritius, two tiny countries which supply the U.S. with virtually no immigrants. Given that most H-1B professionals are born in India and China, the per-country quotas will exaggerate the retrogression for persons born in these countries.

If high-skilled immigrants could only come to U.S. or remain in their own countries, our country could afford to continue this backward, "Let them eat Chicken McNuggets!" approach. But various European countries, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the Persian Gulf countries are all competing for these talented individuals. Even Germany, the great bastion for engineers is seeing the number of German students studying engineering fall precipitously.

It is in our national interest to make our country the principal destination for computer professionals and scientists, for nurses, teachers and therapists, and for businessmen and physicians from all over the world.

The Senate immigration bill (S.2611) would have greatly expanded both the outdated employment and family-based immigration systems and eased the per-country limitations. Unfortunately, House Republicans, worried that they might lose their majority in the mid-term elections, refused to negotiate a compromise bill with the Senate.

Perhaps, in the "lame duck" session of Congress which will occur after the November elections, reason will prevail and Congress will pass amendments to fix our legal immigration system.

But just in case, be sure to keep the heat on members of Congress, and perhaps, they will see the light.

----------------------------------


The bottom line is this Retrogession Mess is going to worsened at unimaginizable level in near future and will effect almost everybody even those who are not effected today......
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 10-02-2006, 11:01 AM
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Default wake up

I know a few professionals who have PD's current or near current, they don't care for IV OR for its efforts.This is a wake up call for people like them ! Guys, unite and contribute who knows you could have PD from yr 2000 and still not get GC for years, if we don't act. Who knows, you may get stuck in name search or USCIS could lose your file !

Last edited by abhaykul; 10-02-2006 at 11:17 AM.
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Old 10-02-2006, 12:13 PM
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Default

I know! I read the same article. I don't know how far the prediction are right but it did scare the hell out of me. One thing is becoming very clear.... Temp fixes won't hold for too long... A good bill with a long term view on legal immigrants is the only way to clear up the this whole mess. And we need active participation by all of us. We are becoming sitting ducks waiting for these "lame duck" sessions.
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Old 10-02-2006, 12:51 PM
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Default Wake Up.

What about this thing is so shocking to you all?

As far as I am concerned he has not raised any points in that which has not been discussed on this forum previously. Perhaps, those that are so shocked by these "developments" had their heads in the sand all along.

The facts are that those from EB India are screwed the worst. If your PD is 2003 or after you will literally have to wait behind about 300K to 500K people for dates to even reach 2003. EB ROW will have to become current before EB India starts to see approvals even through those backlog cases, since at its annual 10K quota you do the math. PDs will move back for EB India for sure in the upcoming bulletins, just look at EB2 India if you have any doubts.

All in all, EB India needs reform. Full stop. If your PD is in 2003 or after, then do not even dream far less think of any other alternative before 5-7 yrs. Plan accordingly and support accordingly what you would like.

And for heavens sake stop acting surprised. WAKE UP atleast now.
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Old 10-02-2006, 01:27 PM
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This problem is going to grow with time and with backlog centers approving labor applications. Thus the IV emphasis on aggressively continuing our efforts and getting more membership and funding.

Last edited by pappu; 10-02-2006 at 01:29 PM.
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Old 10-02-2006, 01:46 PM
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Default Hi

What is the plan of IV now that the Senate passed Bill was rejected by Congress.Do we think,they will pass it in any form after the November elections?
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Old 10-02-2006, 02:29 PM
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Default numbers

Quote:
Originally Posted by Law Loving Alien
Article from shusterman.com
Finally, some good analysis with numbers. This should make it clear how bad the situation is. We are all waiting for the lame duck session now.

qplearn
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Old 10-02-2006, 02:31 PM
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I don't see how it can get even worest,

so what will be the dates, jan 1900 for India
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Old 10-02-2006, 02:50 PM
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Default It will Unavailable

Quote:
Originally Posted by eb3India
I don't see how it can get even worest,

so what will be the dates, jan 1900 for India

No,

But they can make it unavailable for next 10years..... Do you know what I mean ? It can be equal to 1900 for all categories.... Not only India.
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Old 10-02-2006, 02:54 PM
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Default unavailable

Quote:
Originally Posted by eb3India
I don't see how it can get even worest,

so what will be the dates, jan 1900 for India
If Shusterman's figures are correct, and I have no doubt they are, EB-2 India will become unavailable by the Jan 2007 bulletin. That's how it will get worse.
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Old 10-02-2006, 02:57 PM
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Default why not ?

Things have only been getting worse since last october .. it is not inconceivable that EB3 dates will retrogress further or go unavailable for years together if schedule A workers are added to the backlog.

Quote:
Originally Posted by eb3India
I don't see how it can get even worest,

so what will be the dates, jan 1900 for India
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Old 10-02-2006, 02:59 PM
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Default EB-2 as well

Quote:
Originally Posted by dixie
Things have only been getting worse since last october .. it is not inconceivable that EB3 dates will retrogress further or go unavailable for years together if schedule A workers are added to the backlog.
I think the schedule A will not spare EB-2 either; actually, EB-2 will be affected more.

Last edited by qplearn; 10-02-2006 at 03:02 PM.
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Old 10-02-2006, 03:24 PM
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Retrogression is about to get worse???

Wow who would have expected this?
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Old 10-02-2006, 03:25 PM
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Default Yes, this is known fact

Well said alterego.

The same exact thing is discussed in this forum several hundred times. May be these people come once in a while when they get bored and post some messages and then disappear.

Nurses are going to take up the entire EB3 quota every year and it is going to be stuck in April 22 for long time. May be forever... until some reform is done in the immigration system. So guys wake up at least now and contribute to IV and be a active member.

Quote:
Originally Posted by qplearn
I think the schedule A will not spare EB-2 either; actually, EB-2 will be affected more.
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Old 10-02-2006, 03:49 PM
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Default no need to be rude

Quote:
Originally Posted by GCBy3000
Well said alterego.

The same exact thing is discussed in this forum several hundred times. May be these people come once in a while when they get bored and post some messages and then disappear.

Nurses are going to take up the entire EB3 quota every year and it is going to be stuck in April 22 for long time. May be forever... until some reform is done in the immigration system. So guys wake up at least now and contribute to IV and be a active member.
Shusterman speaks about EB-2 as well. BTW, I am not sure when nurses were discussed last on this forum, although I do come here quite often. Even if I missed that, there is no reason to be rude. Shusterman's newsletter does have an analysis of numbers that makes the picture clear. And for some dumb people like me, it helps to see this kind of analysis.

Last edited by qplearn; 10-02-2006 at 03:52 PM.
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