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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #211 (permalink)  
Old 07-26-2008, 08:36 PM
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Originally Posted by conchshell View Post
However, these students are not completely exempted from the H1B quota for each year. Whatever, if PERM filing in year 2008 has witnessed 46% drop since 2007 ... it tells us a lot.
Thats true - students were not exempt until a couple of years ago - but the point I am trying to make is that they add to the EB - India count thereby retrogressing it further.
Looking at only BIG IT sponsored H1b's may result in a much reduced EB number
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Last edited by delax; 07-27-2008 at 02:03 AM.
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  #212 (permalink)  
Old 07-28-2008, 10:17 PM
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Default I almost agree

Quote:
Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
I still believe in EB2 will try to catch up current by next October.
My analysis shows a similar result although it could be off by about 6 months. I was a little surprised to see a dip in LC approvals in 2005 and there was a recent news report that 2008 also shows a similar dip indicating the declining incentives to keeping jobs/people here. If the current trend continues, we should see more visas available for the backlog reduction and more GC approvals should come in 2H09.
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  #213 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2008, 02:15 AM
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Default perm filings decrease

Quote:
Originally Posted by conchshell View Post
However, these students are not completely exempted from the H1B quota for each year. Whatever, if PERM filing in year 2008 has witnessed 46% drop since 2007 ... it tells us a lot.
I presume the decrease in labour filing in 2008 might be a possibility due to the offshore Indian companies which shifting to H1B sponsorship instead of L1 sponsorship. Because most of the L1s being rejected with these companies recently. So they switching to H1 sponsorship. And obviously they normally dont sponsor GC. So this is just my thinking on why the labor filings decreased in 2008 compared to 2007.

http://www.myvisajobs.com/reports/Sp...onsor_2005.pdf
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  #214 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2008, 02:21 AM
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Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
I presume the decrease in labour filing in 2008 might be a possibility due to the offshore Indian companies which shifting to H1B sponsorship instead of L1 sponsorship. Because most of the L1s being rejected with these companies recently. So they switching to H1 sponsorship. And obviously they normally dont sponsor GC. So this is just my thinking on why the labor filings decreased in 2008 compared to 2007.

http://www.myvisajobs.com/reports/Sp...onsor_2005.pdf
There is the added restriction that the employer has to now pay for PERM. SOme employers may have some way of working around this, but it definitely has an impact in reducing the number of applications.
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  #215 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2008, 05:58 AM
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Default Offshore in effect

I live in MI and have worked for Big3 (GM/Ford/Chrysler) over the years. Last year Chrysler got an offer that their IT budget can be cut by 30% if they give all contracts to this company. After good research and due to money problems Chrysler took the offer. Came in TCS & Convasys took away most of the jobs and off shored them in no time. I moved out last year and have seen whole teams being wiped out. Only the manager who was there before stayed.

Not sure if this offshore is good in long term or not. Obviously there will be fewer perms.
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  #216 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2008, 11:33 AM
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the_googly can only hope to improve
Default aug & sep approvals

I expect 1/2 of the approvals to be EB2-I and the rest EB2-C.
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  #217 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2008, 11:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Legal View Post
And this exaggerated estimation of 108,000 includes those with PD between 6/2/06 and 7/31/07. Since the cut off date for EB2-I was Apr 2004 in the June 07 bulletin, most with PD must have already applied before July 1st.

Forget the speculations, it looks like there are a few facts which are out in the open. Correct me if I'm wrong:

1. Minimum of 15,000-20,000 EB visas are available.

2. They have closed EB-3 quota.

3. At least 20,000 if not more FB spill over is available and has not been applied to this year's count.
If FB is factored in Sep quota (and if there are still 20K EB left) then there is a likely chance of EB3 ROW becoming available.
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  #218 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2008, 01:08 PM
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Thumbs up Agree

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legal View Post
The argument that EB2-1 PD will retrogress to 2002 or 2004 does not seem to be based on numbers, but a random speculation. Doesn't not undermine vdlrao's projections in a credible way


Spillover may not be there, or may be there but when the new quota opens up October 1st, new minimum numbers will be available for EB2-I. Worst case scenario, dates will remain static or very minimal backward movement. It looks like the black hole is the time between late 2004 and early 2005, pre-PERM.Other than saying there is massive inventory of backlogged cases, Ron has not given better/ actual numbers of likely pending EB-2 I cases.
I agree with you, and believe me, all the white lawyers, none of them go the extra mile to calculate numbers. All they are concerned with is their fees.
I have a white lawyer and being a member in IV, I know more than she does. Her lack of knowledge does not undermine her credibility, but it is not her job to know the numbers, she presents her client's case to INS, from there its guess work.

I think Vldrao and other members are not too optimistic or blindly optimistic, they calculated numbers and analyzed the results.


Thanks
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  #219 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2008, 02:16 PM
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Default

This is Ron Gotcher's view. I am not advocating his position just posting for the benefit of IV members who may have not read his post regarding forward movement in EB2-India.

Some thoughts on India E2 movement over the next two months.

More and more, I see people posting messages containing the unspoken assumption that since the Indian E2 cutoff date has moved forward, it is likely to move forward further in the coming months. This is a false hope.

Even with a cutoff date in early 2003, the CIS has sufficient inventory of Indian E2 adjustments on file to use up the remaining inventory of E2 visas for this fiscal year. The reason that the Visa Office advanced the priority date is to move it up to the point where overseas consular posts can take up the slack left by the CIS's inability to close out enough cases and avoid wasting visas this year.

The CIS inventory of pending cases is massive. If there were no quota at all - if everyone were suddenly "current" - and no new cases were filed after today, it would still take the CIS four to five years to close out all of the pending cases that they already have in their inventory.

Overseas consular posts maintain inventories of cases as well. When the priority date for a particular case starts to edge forward and it appears that the applicant may become "current' in the not too distant future, the applicant is told to submit all required supporting documents to the post or the NVC. When this is done, the applicant is reported to the Visa Office as being "documentarily qualified." This means that the case is in a position where an immigrant visa can be issued to the applicant as soon as a visa number becomes available.

The inventory of documentarily qualified cases with current priority dates at a consular post never exceeds that post's ability to process all such cases within sixty days. Consular posts have very high bandwidth processing capabilities. No matter how many cases become current, they are able to process all of them within sixty days.

The reason that the Indian E2 cutoff date has moved forward is that the Visa Office fears that the CIS will not be able to adjudicate enough adjustment of status applications to exhaust the annual quota. They have advanced the cutoff date in order to make more cases overseas eligible for final processing.

This means that overseas consular posts have exhausted their inventories of Indian E2 cases with priority dates earlier than 2006 and the Visa Office had to move the cutoff date forward in order to make more cases eligible to be closed out.

This does not mean that the CIS has closed out all of the pre-2006 cases pending in their inventory. Far from it. When the new fiscal year starts, Indian E2 is likely to retrogress back to late 2002 or early 2003. This is roughly the point reached by the CIS in processing their inventory of pending cases.

Please understand that this is a temporary phenomenon and due entirely to the difference in the processing capabilities of the CIS and the overseas consular posts.

I hope this clarifies matters.
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  #220 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2008, 02:27 PM
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Default makes sense

I think what Ron is saying does make sense.
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  #221 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2008, 02:28 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jetguy777 View Post
....
....
This does not mean that the CIS has closed out all of the pre-2006 cases pending in their inventory. Far from it. When the new fiscal year starts, Indian E2 is likely to retrogress back to late 2002 or early 2003. This is roughly the point reached by the CIS in processing their inventory of pending cases.
....
....
I agree with this comment. Starting Oct, EB2-Ind is likely to retrogress to 03/2003 to 06/2003.

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  #222 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2008, 02:52 PM
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Default depends ...

Quote:
Originally Posted by jetguy777 View Post
More and more, I see people posting messages containing the unspoken assumption that since the Indian E2 cutoff date has moved forward, it is likely to move forward further in the coming months. This is a false hope.
I personally feel it all depends on how USCIS is gonna process the cases during August 2008.

When Ron writes about the new EB2 India quota for 2008, he does not mention spill over to EB 2 India from EB1 category. Which is a very important aspect behind the prediction given by optimists like vdlrao and others.

However at the same time, if USCIS does not bring its act together and we end up wasting the visas once again ( it highly unlikely that consular visa posts will assign 20 to 40K visas in next two months ... Are there so many people going with CP route??) the dates for EB2 India will retrogress but certainly not to an extent that they go back to 2003. There will be a mild retrogression and EB2 India date may come back to April 2004. However, later on they will progress further because of new years quota and spillover from EB1.
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  #223 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2008, 02:53 PM
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Default

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Originally Posted by desi3933 View Post
I agree with this comment. Starting Oct, EB2-Ind is likely to retrogress to 03/2003 to 06/2003.

__________________
Not a legal advice.
I doubt it. My sense is that USCIS has already processed most of EB2-I cases until early 2004 - based on approval trend seen on IV, Murthy Forum, and a ton of personal friends. If it goes back it may go back to Fall 2004 time frame.
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  #224 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2008, 03:06 PM
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Default Total GC Visa Stamping at consulates in India

I assume that all the EB2 India who have decided to go for CP route will get their immigrant visas stamped in India. I noticed that New Delhi and Mumbai consulates posts a list of candidates due for immigrant visa interview at their website by the middle of the month. May be this list can give us an idea as to how many EB2 India will get their GC through consular posts:

This is the link for New Delhi consulate: http://newdelhi.usembassy.gov/visa_interview_dates.html

This is the link for Mumbai Consulate : http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/interv..._schedule.html

At the links mentioned above, you will find PDF documents telling us how many Employment based (EB2) people are scheduled for an interview during August 2008.

If we can search and locate similar links for Chennai, and Kolkata consulate, probably by mid August we would be in a position to find out how many EB2 India are going to get their GC's in August 2008 through CP route. This will also tell us how many visas USCIS has got to process/waste.

Gurus ... am I making any mistake here?

Last edited by conchshell; 07-29-2008 at 03:17 PM.
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  #225 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2008, 03:33 PM
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Default Bombay Numbers

There are 26 E2 for bombay. Delhi data was for July. Assumption will be around 100 for CP for whole of India.
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