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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #421 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2009, 12:34 PM
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But Eb1 doesn't need Labor Certification so in that case "But Assume about 15 thousand of 21092 fall into EB1 and EB2" this assumption doesn't seems right.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
FACTS: In 2008 there are only 21092 Total certified labors(LCAs). And in 2005 there are 1350 for india out of 6133 total LCAs .

And it seems there wont be many certified labors in 2009 as well.



Year -- 2008 , 2007 , 2006 , 2005
---------------------------------------------------------
Applied -- 61997 , 98753 , 105960 , 14253
-----------------------------------------------------------
Certified -- 21092 , 85112 , 79782 , 6133


see this link for reference http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/sh...3813&page=1000 (PERM (LABOR) DATA Analysis)

ASSUMPTIONS:

Bsed on the above data.

There are 21092 LCAs in 2008 out of which we couldnt know exactly how many of them fall in to EB!, EB2, EB3.

But Assume about 15 thousand of 21092 fall into EB1 and EB2 (Generally it will be around 2/3 of 21092).

So total visas needed for EB1 and EB2 in 2008 are 15*2.5 (dependents) =37,500

Available visas for EB1 and EB2 in 2008 = 140,000 * 2/3 = 102600 Visas

So available visas for spill over in 2008 are 102600 minus 37500= 65100.

Thanks
MDix
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  #422 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2009, 12:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
FACTS: In 2008 there are only 21092 Total certified labors(LCAs). And in 2005 there are 1350 for india out of 6133 total LCAs .

And it seems there wont be many certified labors in 2009 as well.



Year -- 2008 , 2007 , 2006 , 2005
---------------------------------------------------------
Applied -- 61997 , 98753 , 105960 , 14253
-----------------------------------------------------------
Certified -- 21092 , 85112 , 79782 , 6133


see this link for reference http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/sh...3813&page=1000 (PERM (LABOR) DATA Analysis)

ASSUMPTIONS:

Based on the total LCAs for India, which are 1350, in 2005 every body agrees that EB2 India 2005 Priority dates will be cleared of very quickly once the PD touches it.


There are 21092 LCAs in 2008 out of which we couldnt know exactly how many of them fall in to EB1, EB2, EB3.

But Assume about 15 thousand of 21092 fall into EB1 and EB2 (Generally it will be around 2/3 of 21092).

So total visas needed for EB1 and EB2 in 2008 are 15*2.5 (dependents) =37,500

Available visas for EB1 and EB2 in 2008 = 140,000 * 2/3 = 102600 Visas

So available visas for spill over in 2008 are 102600 minus 37500= 65100.
Thank you maan for the explanation...I hope we all will get green card soon.
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  #423 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2009, 12:47 PM
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Folks - while vdlrao has a very optimistic approach looking into all positive looking data, there are certain things that one has to consider

(1) Retrogression started in 2004 - 2005 timeframe. At that time EB2 was not retrogressed and a lot of people filed for EB2 in 2005.

(2) August 2008 mayhem - A lot of 2006 EB2 were cleared but not 2005.

(3) Based on trackers data - we still see a lot of EB2 2004 (later months) and a lot of 2005 still waiting

(4) No spillover this year from FB so India utilizes its 7% only (remember this is strictly followed)

(5) Economy is bad - very difficult for reform this year. More scrutiny and multiple RFEs will delay application processing further.

Taking all this into consideration - lets get realistic - though sweet positive talk is nice to hear and discuss.

Getting real means
(1) Take things seriously - these things affect you, your family and your children - don't make your children victims of your own inaction
(2) Economy will not get better any soon - getting a job is very difficult - keeping a job is difficult - do not expect this administration to do anything good for you - do not go by the Admin sweet talk about doing something for immigrants.
(3) Understand and realize that we need to start mobilizing.
(4) Lets get all our friends on IV. Lets mobilize the state chapters. Lets see what we can all do collectively


We can all do it together - can we?
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  #424 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2009, 12:50 PM
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As the labors are approved in 2008, They may need the Visas in 2008/2009. Becasue for EB1, EB2 ROW its Current all the time. So this will cause the more spill overs available in 2009 than 2008. Because in 2008 there may be some guys from 2007 approved labors who need Visas in 2008 quota. As in 2007 there are 85112 approved Labors where as in 2008 they are just 21092. And in 2009 the number will be much less.
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  #425 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2009, 12:54 PM
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Default Obama interview -Immigration reform

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.p...w&pageId=89463
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  #426 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2009, 12:56 PM
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Aug-02
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
FACTS: In 2008 there are only 21092 Total certified labors(LCAs). And in 2005 there are 1350 for india out of 6133 total LCAs .

And it seems there wont be many certified labors in 2009 as well.



Year -- 2008 , 2007 , 2006 , 2005
---------------------------------------------------------
Applied -- 61997 , 98753 , 105960 , 14253
-----------------------------------------------------------
Certified -- 21092 , 85112 , 79782 , 6133


see this link for reference http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/sh...3813&page=1000 (PERM (LABOR) DATA Analysis)

ASSUMPTIONS:

Based on the total LCAs for India, which are 1350, in 2005 every body agrees that EB2 India 2005 Priority dates will be cleared of very quickly once the PD touches it.


There are 21092 LCAs in 2008 out of which we couldnt know exactly how many of them fall in to EB1, EB2, EB3, EB4 and EB5.

But Assume about 15 thousand of 21092 fall into EB1 and EB2 (Generally it will be around 2/3 of 21092).

So total visas needed for EB1 and EB2 in 2008 are 15*2.5 (dependents) =37,500

Available visas for EB1 and EB2 in 2008 = 140,000 * 2/3 = 102600 Visas

So available visas for spill over in 2008 are 102600 minus 37500= 65100.


.
Sorry to sound cyncial, but I am waiting for 7/14/2009 to see whether your assumptions/presumptions will remain assumptions/presumptions or become facts.

Here are some things to chew on

(1) There are so many people who cannot find their own case in the database from which your numbers come from. I could not find mine.

(2) I seriously doubt the number of certified/filed labors from 2005. On Dec 28th 2004, DOL published PERM in Fed register and said that the traditional/RIR programs will sun set on Mar 28th 2004., 90 days from the date of publishing in the Fed Register. I know atleast 10 people who filed between Jan and Mar 05. Dont need to tell which companies might have filed under the good ole program. Again pointing that the data and numbers you are looking at is wrong

(3) Your unstated assumption is that just because EB1/EB2 ROW has been current, there are no applicants who filed in 06/07 and will eat up a visa number or two in this year.

(4) EB-2 NIW along with some EB1 also does not require Labor cert and a lot of firms/Univ do EB-2 NIW

(5) Finally, All those EB1/EB2 ROW folks who will compete for the visa number might have started the process in 2007 second half or 2008 first half and will use the visa number. So your entire reliance on 2008 (that 37,500 number) can be wrong. For us to assume that the economy is causing a slow down in the labor cert, we can only think of that effect from Aug/Sept 08. For the Recession to help retrogression, it will take a fiscal year.

My 0.02
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  #427 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2009, 01:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chanduv23 View Post

(4) No spillover this year from FB so India utilizes its 7% only (remember this is strictly followed)
This is 100% incorrect. EB-1/EB-2 ROW spillover goes (actually should go) to the oldest PD's of the EB-2 I & C
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  #428 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2009, 01:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ch102 View Post
Yes I am expecting it and its one of the top priorities.
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  #429 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2009, 01:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
Yes I am expecting it and its one of the top priorities.
LOL! What do you expect me to tell when a spanish radio host approaches me and asks about CIR? NO! We are NOT doing CIR until we get the economy out of the tank and make sure that there are NO political backlashes.
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  #430 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2009, 01:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
Yes I am expecting it and its one of the top priorities.
Expecting what actually?? a comprehensive immigration reform? I think his response is more generic about the "need" for a reform and what would you expect him to say when talking to a spanish radio host?

Yes of course it should be one of the top priorities but there are not even slight indication of an effort to get there. A legislation like CIR needs lot of background prep and news activity - so far no visible action or news etc. Was reading an article in CNN by Navaratte about the need for immigration reform and why its important to get it done in 2009 (if its delayed - no one want to touch it before midterm election etc). Some of the internal politics in the administration seems to suggest it may not happen anytime soon - this guy Navarrette was always critical of Obama so I would take some of his comments with a pinch of salt but still his observation about current White House chief of staf's opinion of immigration reform is kind of disturbing. Also its highly unlikely to get any EB related bill without CIR any time soon. Bottom line is nothing is gonna happen if we sit and "hope" that things will get better and PD will become current.

CNN article: http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/02/...ion/index.html
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  #431 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2009, 04:03 PM
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Sooner or later the Immigration reform will/should pass.
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  #432 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2009, 04:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
Sooner or later the Immigration reform will/should pass.
I agree with you Mr. VDL Rao.

And eve if they want to improve the condition of their country they will have to pass some reform in favour of Immigrants....
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  #433 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2009, 05:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by presidento View Post
sorry to sound cyncial, but i am waiting for 7/14/2009 to see whether your assumptions/presumptions will remain assumptions/presumptions or become facts.

Here are some things to chew on

(1) there are so many people who cannot find their own case in the database from which your numbers come from. I could not find mine.

i find mine . And few of my friends find their cases as well.

(2) i seriously doubt the number of certified/filed labors from 2005. On dec 28th 2004, dol published perm in fed register and said that the traditional/rir programs will sun set on mar 28th 2004., 90 days from the date of publishing in the fed register. I know atleast 10 people who filed between jan and mar 05. Dont need to tell which companies might have filed under the good ole program. Again pointing that the data and numbers you are looking at is wrong

dont know.

(3) your unstated assumption is that just because eb1/eb2 row has been current, there are no applicants who filed in 06/07 and will eat up a visa number or two in this year.

yes i agree with you on this that the eb1/eb2 row will eat up the visa numbers in this year (2009) quota. But that usage would be very less. And the eb1s in 2008 may be very minimul because of the recession and may continue the same in 2009 as well.

(4) eb-2 niw along with some eb1 also does not require labor cert and a lot of firms/univ do eb-2 niw

i am reading in the forums that now a days getting eb1 approval is next to impossible.

(5) finally, all those eb1/eb2 row folks who will compete for the visa number might have started the process in 2007 second half or 2008 first half and will use the visa number. So your entire reliance on 2008 (that 37,500 number) can be wrong. For us to assume that the economy is causing a slow down in the labor cert, we can only think of that effect from aug/sept 08. For the recession to help retrogression, it will take a fiscal year.

yes i agree with your point. But all those approved labors in 2006 and 2007 might have eaten up the 2008 visa numbers. But very less or no chance for them (eb1 and eb2 row people with lcas 2006 and 2007) to eat the visa numbers in 2009 because their pd is current all the time. as you said (for the recession to help retrogression, it will take a fiscal year) the real impact will start during the last quarter of this fiscal year. my 0.02





....

Last edited by vdlrao; 02-20-2009 at 05:10 PM.
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  #434 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2009, 05:03 PM
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This statement is as much certain as the statement of "sooner or later I am going to die".


Quote:
Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
Sooner or later the Immigration reform will/should pass.
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  #435 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2009, 05:12 PM
Donor
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Aug-02
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(1) There are so many people who cannot find their own case in the database from which your numbers come from. I could not find mine.

I find mine . And few of my friends find their cases as well.

Dude, I dont know what you mean by this. All that I am saying is the data on which you are basing your predictions can be wrong. By how much? I dont know and no one knows. But it could be significant. Just because you find yours and your friends find their does not make the data complete.

(4) EB-2 NIW along with some EB1 also does not require Labor cert and a lot of firms/Univ do EB-2 NIW

I am reading in the forums that now a days getting EB1 approval is next to impossible.

Dont know where you are reading, but last year stats shows that approx 37K EB1 visas were given. Hear say is one thing. Reality is another thing.

While I agree that most of the numbers for the current categories might have been used in the same fiscal year, there will be applications that will get the number from this fiscal year even though they were filed when they were current an year ago. Looks like you think such visas will be a minuscule and I don't agree.
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