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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 07-14-2008, 02:03 PM
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Default EB2 will be current with in year.

I presume EB2 India will be current by next October. Till now for EB2 India there are only 1/3 of 7% of 140K visas which are 3,266. Due to the new change of horizontal fall outs EB2 India exclusively getting about 32k visas, very little share to china. So this change making an availability of about 30k aditional visas to EB2 India along with regular 3,266. So total About 32K visas for EB2 India. This includes unused Family Visa Numbers as well. So from now on EB2 India getting almost 10 times more visas.

And due to the change to Horizontal Fall out of Visa Numbers from Vertical Fall outs, Its not the India which loses but its EB3 ROW.

Last edited by vdlrao; 07-16-2008 at 02:31 AM.
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 07-14-2008, 02:29 PM
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 07-14-2008, 02:31 PM
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I guess this is the easiest way to become a Senior member. Copy paste the same "personally deduced information" in different threads. If required, create a new thread and paste it again.

Dude, refrain from doing it.....Doesn't serve the purpose of the forum.

Cheers.
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 07-14-2008, 03:03 PM
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Your assumption does not hold good for this year. As someone else already pointed out USCIS processed 80 to 85% of year 2008 quoto already, it would have only 15 to 20K visa till october08. For next year, if still the horizontal overflow happens it would add more numbers.

Nowhere i have seen in EB2 it goes beyond 50K except 2005(but there was AC21 implemented to recapture unused visa on 2005(Overall issued visa were 246,877.)

EB-2 India would go back to some date in October 2008,but to what date is anybody's guess.Lack of data about EB2 India for 2003,2004 is preventing us from forecasting this.

My guess for EB-2(I) for 2005 2006-MID JUNE EB2(I) is about 8000 from Perm Data.

I assume it would move back to 2004 ARP or MID 2005 to start with in 2008 November.

USCIS starts the Spill over normally after 6 months or 8 months. So to start year 2009 USCIS would have only 800 visa for first quarter for EB2-India.

Last edited by Jerrome; 07-14-2008 at 03:07 PM.
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 07-14-2008, 03:52 PM
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Default EB2 Movement

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerrome View Post
Your assumption does not hold good for this year. As someone else already pointed out USCIS processed 80 to 85% of year 2008 quoto already, it would have only 15 to 20K visa till october08. For next year, if still the horizontal overflow happens it would add more numbers.

Nowhere i have seen in EB2 it goes beyond 50K except 2005(but there was AC21 implemented to recapture unused visa on 2005(Overall issued visa were 246,877.)

EB-2 India would go back to some date in October 2008,but to what date is anybody's guess.Lack of data about EB2 India for 2003,2004 is preventing us from forecasting this.

My guess for EB-2(I) for 2005 2006-MID JUNE EB2(I) is about 8000 from Perm Data.

I assume it would move back to 2004 ARP or MID 2005 to start with in 2008 November.

USCIS starts the Spill over normally after 6 months or 8 months. So to start year 2009 USCIS would have only 800 visa for first quarter for EB2-India.
For first quarter EB2 India will have 1/4 of 9,800(7% of 140k visas), which are 2,450 visas. I wonder
how u got 800 visas. I dont see much retrogression in EB2 dates other than some mild ones. And the dates move pretty fast on a whole.
About EB3: it wont be like now all the time. The Immigration reform bill wont keep failing all the time. There would be a time for it to pass in the next two years. As soon as it passes all our Employment Based categories, specifically EB3, will get greatest benefit with PDs almost becoming current.

Last edited by vdlrao; 07-14-2008 at 03:59 PM.
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2008, 08:25 PM
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Question 9800 is not just for EB2

Quote:
Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
For first quarter EB2 India will have 1/4 of 9,800(7% of 140k visas), which are 2,450 visas. I wonder
how u got 800 visas. I dont see much retrogression in EB2 dates other than some mild ones. And the dates move pretty fast on a whole.
About EB3: it wont be like now all the time. The Immigration reform bill wont keep failing all the time. There would be a time for it to pass in the next two years. As soon as it passes all our Employment Based categories, specifically EB3, will get greatest benefit with PDs almost becoming current.
Vdlrao:
First of let me congratulate you. You have been amazingly accurate time and time again about the movement. Do you have some internal sources
Jokes aside I think you miss calculated the 2450 visas for the first quarter for the EB2 India. I think the 7% country limit is on a state as a whole including EB1, EB2, EB3, and others. So going by this India gets 9800 visas for a year without any spillovers. The spillovers happen in the final quarter only so for each of the first 3 quarters EB2 will get 28 percent of one fourth of 9800 and the same amount will go to EB1 and EB3 as well. so EB2 I gets 686 visas. But I agree with you that in the last quarter EB2 I will move very fast because it will get all the spillovers from EB1 and EB2 ROW..
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2008, 11:04 PM
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vdlrao,

True Eb2 will move and would not retrogress taking the new FY as a whole..but it becoming current by next Oct is a bit far fetched.

Remember in the first quarter of FY07 EB2 was U with all 01, 02, 03, and Jan-Mar 04 (mostly 03 as 01 and 02 were current for long and didn't have many in the labor backlog centers) used all the numbers. With several EB2's issued during the fiasco + 1st and 3rd quarter and into the 4th quarter, we are now slowly seeing everything till Mar 04 cleared up. It took almost a year to have 03 cleared up.

And you guess is 04-08 would get cleared in another year hard to believe!


Quote:
Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
I presume EB2 India will be current by next October. Till now for EB2 India there are only 7% of 140K visas. Due to the new change of horizontal fall outs EB2 India exclusively getting about 50k visas, very little share to china. So this change making an availability of additional 50k visas to EB2 India along with regular 9.8k. So total About 60K visas for EB2 India. This includes unused Family Visa Numbers as well.

And due to the change to Horizontal Fall out of Visa Numbers from Vertical Fall outs, Its not the India which loses but its EB3 ROW.
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2008, 11:54 PM
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Thumbs up Eb2

Quote:
Originally Posted by InTheMoment View Post
vdlrao,

True Eb2 will move and would not retrogress taking the new FY as a whole..but it becoming current by next Oct is a bit far fetched.

Remember in the first quarter of FY07 EB2 was U with all 01, 02, 03, and Jan-Mar 04 (mostly 03 as 01 and 02 were current for long and didn't have many in the labor backlog centers) used all the numbers. With several EB2's issued during the fiasco + 1st and 3rd quarter and into the 4th quarter, we are now slowly seeing everything till Mar 04 cleared up. It took almost a year to have 03 cleared up.

And you guess is 04-08 would get cleared in another year hard to believe!

04-08 would get cleared in another year ? : u may be righ IntheMoment. In 05 there are very less cases.
so there are 06 and 07 & 08. I presume even thugh it wont be current then the PD will be 1 or 1 and half year delay.
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  #9 (permalink)  
Old 07-16-2008, 12:09 AM
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Some one has done a very good analysis in this thread.

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/sh...=4285&page=107 (All Visa Bulletin Predictions and discussions here)

Here is copy and paste of the post by gcobessesed

----------------------------------

Reading this post and the Ron Gotcher numbers, I see some answers for the pending India backlog number question and a silver lining for EB2.

Quote:
Originally Posted by drirshad View Post
(Quoting Ron Gotcher) The CIS backlog does not appear to be as serious as I had been told previously. Rather than 600,000 pending employment based AOS cases, it is likely less than 400,000 pending cases.
Quote:
Indian applicants make up approximately 40 to 45 per cent of the entire employment based quota backlog
Therefore, about 160,000 applications are pending for India!

As we have seen before, EB3 and EB2 are almost the same proportion for India with EB3 being slightly higher. So, about 85,000 for EB3 and 75,000 for EB2 are pending.

Quote:
Mr. Oppenheim explained that while the Visa Office initially took the view that visa numbers had to fall down into employment third preference before the could fall across to the individual country quotas, but after further review, additional legislation, and consultation with Congress, they concluded that they have to allocate the fall across within individual preference petitions first.
This means, EB2 will get all unused EB1 visas and EB3 will only get 1/3 of the total 140,000 employment based visas (and 7% per country) until EB2 becomes current.

Also, because 40-45% of the applications are from India, we can assume 40% of the yearly EB1+EB2 *may* be applied to EB2 India. i.e. approximately 35,000 visas per year for India EB2!!!

Putting this in perspective with the pending 75,000 EB2 India applications, we should see all of them approved in the next 3 years. i.e. If your EB2 India priority date is in early 2007, then your I-485 will be approved by 2011, which is fantastic!

If you assume a uniform distribution of applications between Apr 2004 and Apr 2007 (say), it is straightforward to calculate when your date might become current in the next 3 years.

So, according to this, the cut-off date for EB2 India should move towards end of 2004 in the Oct/Nov bulletin. If that happens, then the above argument will be validated.
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I am very confident that EB-2 india will become current in about 14-18 months.
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Last edited by gondalguru; 07-16-2008 at 12:13 AM.
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  #10 (permalink)  
Old 07-16-2008, 02:22 AM
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Post so what does the EB2 PD of June 2006 mean...

So gurus,
The progress has been better than this analysis - so where does this leave us?
Any more thoughts?
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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 07-16-2008, 02:37 AM
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That means, the horizontal spill-over (EB1->EB2->EB3) is the way to go and EB2 I & C will move forward healthily until it becomes current.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rsdang View Post
So gurus,
The progress has been better than this analysis - so where does this leave us?
Any more thoughts?
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 07-16-2008, 04:37 AM
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Exclamation July Fasico Numbers

Quote:
Originally Posted by gondalguru View Post
Some one has done a very good analysis in this thread.

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/sh...=4285&page=107 (All Visa Bulletin Predictions and discussions here)

Here is copy and paste of the post by gcobessesed

----------------------------------

Reading this post and the Ron Gotcher numbers, I see some answers for the pending India backlog number question and a silver lining for EB2.

Quote:
Originally Posted by drirshad View Post
(Quoting Ron Gotcher) The CIS backlog does not appear to be as serious as I had been told previously. Rather than 600,000 pending employment based AOS cases, it is likely less than 400,000 pending cases.
Quote:
Indian applicants make up approximately 40 to 45 per cent of the entire employment based quota backlog
Therefore, about 160,000 applications are pending for India!


As we have seen before, EB3 and EB2 are almost the same proportion for India with EB3 being slightly higher. So, about 85,000 for EB3 and 75,000 for EB2 are pending.


I am very confident that EB-2 india will become current in about 14-18 months.
I disagree with the underlined part before the visa numbers started to move fast in June and The July bulletin EB2 was at Jan 03 and then at Apr 04 but EB3 was at May 01 and then at June 2003 so there will me more like 60~65 percent of Eb3 filers so for calculating EB2 movements we should take this into account as well. So if USCIS does end up giving all the spillover numbers to the retro cuntries in EB2 then I have to agree with Vdlrao's analysis that there will not be much retro in India in the next FY and by the end of next FY it might even become close to current.

Last edited by dilber; 07-16-2008 at 04:37 AM. Reason: Typo
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 07-16-2008, 06:11 PM
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Default july/aug/sep 2009

How many of you think theres a Possibility of Current for EB2 India in either of the Jul/Aug/Sep 2009 bulletins, just like a more than 2 years jump in Aug 2008 bulletin.
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  #14 (permalink)  
Old 07-16-2008, 06:38 PM
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Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
How many of you think theres a Possibility of Current for EB2 India in either of the Jul/Aug/Sep 2009 bulletins, just like a more than 2 years jump in Aug 2008 bulletin.

Hello Mr.vdlrao,
When do you think 2008FebEB2 will be current? Any comments?
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  #15 (permalink)  
Old 07-16-2008, 07:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by buddyinsfo View Post
EB2 is current now..."EB2 will be current within a year" gives an impression that EB2 which is not current will get current in one year...
He is talking about Eb2 India.
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