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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 07-30-2009, 06:49 PM
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Default Sept Visa Bulletin Predictions

Let the BS(brain storming) begin......................
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 07-30-2009, 06:58 PM
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Default I don't want to disappoint you

Hello there ,

From now onwards visa dates will be stable. I mean little or big but most of time forward jump .. Not a big swing that we saw for couple of years.

What bothers me is SPILL OVER. CIS told that EB2 India and China is under their annual limit.EB2 ROW has very less labor compare to last years. For first quarter they had approx 700 LC. if you apply same math then 2800 ~ 3000 LC and 7500 visa needed for all EB2 Row.

Total EB2 has 40k. India and china consume 6k together. Now there should be SPILL of 24k visas to Eb2 India and china.

I am not talking about EB1 Spill ( Which is current till date ) . VO told that EB4 will have cutoff date for Still there can be spill from Eb5.

If no SPILL THEN DATE WILL NOT MOVE SINGLE DAY IN SEP. IF SPILL FROM EB2 only then it will move till MID 2004 . and If more spill then I see we will crossing 2004.
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 07-30-2009, 07:10 PM
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Default

Any idea what could be spillover nos?
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 07-30-2009, 09:22 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_on_demand View Post
From now onwards visa dates will be stable. I mean little or big but most of time forward jump .. Not a big swing that we saw for couple of years.
How can this be true with all the line jumpers EB3 to EB2, EB2 to EB1, EB1 to EBMillionaire.
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 07-30-2009, 11:35 PM
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Default Guess work does not work

Until this point of time, no one knows how USCIS or state is calculating the figures. So, lets wait and see the lottery results. Thats the only way to get the green card faster

Last edited by ksvreg; 07-30-2009 at 11:37 PM.
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 07-30-2009, 11:49 PM
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Default

Please don't start these kind of useless thread
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2009, 01:08 AM
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Default it could be true

Quote:
Originally Posted by sachug22 View Post
There were many I-485 applictions from EB2 ROW from 2005/2006/2007/2008 pending (some stuck in namecheck, some just filled in rack and some waiting an IO). All these applications where getting approved in 2009. Recent trend 2008/2009 I-485 EB2 ROW apps are getting approved (meaning not many old apps left).

Going forward EB2 India/China should see forward movement (and if i can esitimate right big numbers for year 2010 if recession continues).
It could be true that those ROW app will be around 22k so no cut off dates adn there will be very less spill this year. So really slowdown in economy helped them a lot. Next year if economy continue to be slow then it may help india lot. but not 100% it will clear backlog.

We need recapture to clear all backlog.
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2009, 02:42 AM
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Default

Forget September, can any member say with confidence that dates for October will move forward at least 3 years for each category compared to August Bulletin?
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  #9 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2009, 03:08 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Imigrait View Post
Forget September, can any member say with confidence that dates for October will move forward at least 3 years for each category compared to August Bulletin?
I can say with confidence that dates for October WILL NOT move forward 3 years for ANY category compared to August Bulletin.

We will be lucky to see 1+ year movement for EB-2/3 India/China. My 2 cents..
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Disclaimer: I am not a lawyer. The views and opinions expressed here are my own. Please consult an immigration attorney for expert professional advice.
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  #10 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2009, 03:29 AM
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Default Aren't we all?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ksvreg View Post
Until this point of time, no one knows how USCIS or state is calculating the figures. So, lets wait and see the lottery results. Thats the only way to get the green card faster
Why they have a separate *green card lottery* category, I'll never know.... aren't we all in it?
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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2009, 04:18 AM
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Oct-06
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Default Last Month

This would be the last visa bulletin for this year. The dates should move just like they did last year to consume all numbers.
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2009, 10:37 AM
jsb jsb is offline
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May-04
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by northstar View Post
This would be the last visa bulletin for this year. The dates should move just like they did last year to consume all numbers.
For September they can do anything for consuming leftover visas, including a large unsustainanble forward move, but we hope that visas are used for preadjudicated cases in PD sequence (as is described in USCIS procedure manual). However, from October on it appears that dates will only move forward systematically. Reason is that USCIS systems are not designed for handling per country quotas well, which hinders any country quota based information until a file has been opened for adjudication (or preadjudication). There is no per country data readily available on entirely pending cases (except on your paper filings), as initial data entry does not include chargeable country name. However, as we have recently noticed, a lot of cases are getting preadjudicated, which makes chargeable country information available. This should help USCIS estimate monthly demand better.

Bottomline is, if all three of the following conditions are true for you, you should expect good results in coming months.

(1) Your case has no hickups, you have provided all necessary documentation.
(2) Your 'Receive Date (RD)' (not what is on your receipt, but 'true' RD by a center which is on or close to Notice Date) is within published dates for current processing status (suggesting that your case has been preadjudicated)
(3) Your PD is quite high in relation to monthly visa bulletins

Best...

Last edited by jsb; 07-31-2009 at 10:55 AM.
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2009, 10:44 AM
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Mar-05
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02/01/2006
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by northstar View Post
This would be the last visa bulletin for this year. The dates should move just like they did last year to consume all numbers.
Hopefully when the dates move, it moves with all pre-adjudicated applicants within the cut off date get their GC and not a lottery. That should hopefully bring some order to the system. Let us see.
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  #14 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2009, 11:19 AM
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Default

EB2 Indian will be Aug 2006.
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  #15 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2009, 01:30 PM
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Talking While we are thinking wishfully...

Why not EB2-I July 2007...
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