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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

View Poll Results: What is your PD? Only for EB3-I
Before Nov 01 2001 3 0.63%
Before Jan 01 2002 5 1.05%
Before Mar 01 2002 4 0.84%
Before Jun 01 2002 21 4.41%
Before Nov 01 2002 41 8.61%
Before Jan 01 2003 25 5.25%
Before Jan 01 2004 124 26.05%
Before Jan 01 2005 104 21.85%
Before Jan 01 2006 61 12.82%
After Jan 01 2006 88 18.49%
Voters: 476. You may not vote on this poll

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  #106 (permalink)  
Old 08-14-2009, 10:52 AM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Jun-02
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/03/2002
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
06/03/2002
Compare
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 106
my2cents is a jewel in the rough my2cents is a jewel in the rough my2cents is a jewel in the rough
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gchyd View Post
I did some analysis as below:

Total cases in this poll: 377
Cases with PD before 1/1/2003: 71 or 18.8%
Cases with PD after 1/1/2003: 306 or 81.2%

Per Ron Gotcher (see below link), there are total 44,000 cases pending for EB3-India and only 2800 numbers are assigned to this category (EB3-India) per fiscal year (assuming NO spillover). Using this 44,000 number and the percentage from the above poll stats, there are 8,290 (44,000 X 18.8%) cases pending may have the PD prior to 1/1/2003 and 35,710 (44,000 X 81.2%) cases with PD after 1/1/2003. Again, assuming the 2800 cases per year, it will take 3 years (8,307/2800=2.96) just to clear the cases with PD before 1/1/2003. Anyone agree/disagree with this theory?

EB3 cutoff dates!!! - Immigration Information Discussion Forum

Even in 2002. if you look at pattern , up to Mar 2002 - very few applicants - may be because of 9-11 but it jumps after that. So by OCt 2010 - it would move up to Mar 2002 for sure -
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  #107 (permalink)  
Old 08-14-2009, 12:24 PM
Junior Member
Priority Date
:
Apr-08
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
07/22/2008
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 19
globaldesi can only hope to improve
Default Voted

My PD is April 2008. No hope
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  #108 (permalink)  
Old 08-14-2009, 01:30 PM
Junior Member
Priority Date
:
Jun-03
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
12/22/2003
Compare
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 7
gchyd is just really nice gchyd is just really nice gchyd is just really nice gchyd is just really nice
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by globaldesi View Post
My PD is April 2008. No hope
You should get it by 2029 (twenty years as suggested by Ron).

j/k

I am sure there will be a legislative resolution to fix this, just don't know when.

Last edited by gchyd; 08-14-2009 at 05:55 PM. Reason: spelling error
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  #109 (permalink)  
Old 08-14-2009, 01:45 PM
Junior Member
Priority Date
:
Jun-03
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
12/22/2003
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 7
gchyd is just really nice gchyd is just really nice gchyd is just really nice gchyd is just really nice
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by my2cents View Post
Even in 2002. if you look at pattern , up to Mar 2002 - very few applicants - may be because of 9-11 but it jumps after that. So by OCt 2010 - it would move up to Mar 2002 for sure -
You are correct. Again, if you use the poll and the distribution, only 817 cases out of 44,000 pending with PD earlier than Mar 01, 2002. Therefore, the Mar 01, 2002 should become current by early next year, second quarter of FY2010. This is all again assuming the 44k number is correct and we have got a good normal distribution in our poll.
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  #110 (permalink)  
Old 08-14-2009, 04:40 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Jun-02
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/03/2002
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
06/03/2002
Compare
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 106
my2cents is a jewel in the rough my2cents is a jewel in the rough my2cents is a jewel in the rough
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by globaldesi View Post
My PD is April 2008. No hope
u r probably better off than others because there is no hope :-(

Sooner or later CIR would happen and ur date would be current .

most of the painful period is 2002 & 3 because it is moving by 1 month or 2 every year
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  #111 (permalink)  
Old 08-15-2009, 10:16 AM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Jun-02
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/03/2002
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
06/03/2002
Compare
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 106
my2cents is a jewel in the rough my2cents is a jewel in the rough my2cents is a jewel in the rough
Default

bump
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  #112 (permalink)  
Old 08-16-2009, 06:39 AM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Jul-04
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/11/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/25/2007
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 287
immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute
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bump
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  #113 (permalink)  
Old 08-16-2009, 11:47 AM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Oct-03
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
08/02/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/02/2007
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 443
gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute gcisadawg has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gchyd View Post
You are correct. Again, if you use the poll and the distribution, only 817 cases out of 44,000 pending with PD earlier than Mar 01, 2002. Therefore, the Mar 01, 2002 should become current by early next year, second quarter of FY2010. This is all again assuming the 44k number is correct and we have got a good normal distribution in our poll.
Without legislation/Admin fix, EB3-I Visa Bulletin would move by 1 month for every 3.5 calendar months.

The good news is, we don't have to predict every month!
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  #114 (permalink)  
Old 08-17-2009, 12:25 AM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Jul-04
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/11/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/25/2007
Compare
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 287
immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute
Default

bump
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  #115 (permalink)  
Old 08-17-2009, 01:48 AM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Apr-02
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 331
rajuram is a glorious beacon of light rajuram is a glorious beacon of light rajuram is a glorious beacon of light rajuram is a glorious beacon of light rajuram is a glorious beacon of light
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gchyd View Post
You are correct. Again, if you use the poll and the distribution, only 817 cases out of 44,000 pending with PD earlier than Mar 01, 2002. Therefore, the Mar 01, 2002 should become current by early next year, second quarter of FY2010. This is all again assuming the 44k number is correct and we have got a good normal distribution in our poll.
What is the source for 44k number?
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  #116 (permalink)  
Old 08-17-2009, 01:27 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Oct-02
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
03/01/2003
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
05/01/2003
Compare
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 322
trueguy has much to be proud of trueguy has much to be proud of trueguy has much to be proud of trueguy has much to be proud of trueguy has much to be proud of trueguy has much to be proud of trueguy has much to be proud of trueguy has much to be proud of
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bump
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  #117 (permalink)  
Old 08-17-2009, 01:52 PM
Junior Member
Priority Date
:
Category
:
N/A
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
Processing Stage
:
I485 Mailed Date
:
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 24
dask will become famous soon enough dask will become famous soon enough
Red face vote

My Pd is Jan 2002 EB-3 (India) I-140 approved in May 2007 ,485 filed in July 2007.God knows when the EB-3 I will move forward from Nov-2001.....any chances that it will move forward in Oct 2009 bulletin.....gurus any predictions

~dask
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  #118 (permalink)  
Old 08-17-2009, 01:57 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Jun-02
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/03/2002
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
06/03/2002
Compare
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 106
my2cents is a jewel in the rough my2cents is a jewel in the rough my2cents is a jewel in the rough
Default

True guy,

Can we open up the Voting in such a way members can vote for there friends whom they know that they are not visitor for this site and did not vote .

in that way it can be reached to more people.

Seems to me that Mar 2002 is sure date by oct 2010
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  #119 (permalink)  
Old 08-17-2009, 03:10 PM
Member
Priority Date
:
Sep-02
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
11/20/2005
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
06/21/2007
Compare
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 43
jhaalaa will become famous soon enough jhaalaa will become famous soon enough
Exclamation EB3 India Primary + 2 dependents

The demand for EB3-I far exceeds supply. The approximate ratio is 10 TIMES the Visa limit.

Unless we pursue the lawmakers for an immigration reform, we can languish for years.
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  #120 (permalink)  
Old 08-17-2009, 06:29 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Oct-02
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
03/01/2003
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
05/01/2003
Compare
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 322
trueguy has much to be proud of trueguy has much to be proud of trueguy has much to be proud of trueguy has much to be proud of trueguy has much to be proud of trueguy has much to be proud of trueguy has much to be proud of trueguy has much to be proud of
Default

As per Ron's information, there are 44000 pending EB3-I and only 399 people voted so far. its not even one percent. Come on everybody, please vote so we know the distribution of these 44000 Pending applications
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