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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #16 (permalink)  
Old 06-08-2009, 07:46 PM
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Default May be / Maybe not

Quote:
Originally Posted by kondur_007 View Post
That "small change" of EB2 China PD is very important. It suggests that there is going to be "Spill over" so EB2 India and China will have to move together to use the unused numbers. A good sign; at least EB1 retrogression does not seem to be likely and there will be some spill over numbers to EB2 India (EB2 china may not benefit much as it had a PD later than that for the rest of the year.

Scorpion: how can you say "no spill over". EB2ROW is current and so spill over is likely (more likely from EB1 and even to some extent from EB2 ROW)
Moreover, EB2 ROW remained current meaning that they have not used all their quota; they will not use any spillover numbers and they may even provide spill over numbers to EB2 India and China.
Maybe:
Last year USCIS/DOS did the spill over in Aug/Sep, before doing the spill over they did bring china and India Cut-off date to have the same date. yes your thought could be right, there are some visas which they are "Forecasting" would be available for spill over.....

Maybe Not:
Its Just a forecasting right(v all know how good USCIS/DOS are when it comes to forecasting...) they might very well be proven wrong ......and moving china EB2 to India EB2 does not going to affect them in any way.....
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  #17 (permalink)  
Old 06-08-2009, 07:58 PM
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Default

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Originally Posted by Jitamitra View Post
Same old stuff. I dont see a light at the end of the tunnel till some immigration reform bill gets shoved in or a comprehensive immigration bill is introduced.

The obama administration is not in a mood to touch immigration and we live to be scape goats of policies back from 90's.
Immigration is the third rail of American Politics. Nobody wants to touch that.
Obama and his party wont risk election 2010
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  #18 (permalink)  
Old 06-08-2009, 08:01 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hydboy77 View Post
There is going to be no spillover to EB2 India at all because according to the thread "Employment-Based Visa Number Movement and Predictions - from current Murthy Bulletin" thread Mr. Oppenheim (the guy from the DOS who sets the visa bulletin) said that EB1, EB4 and Eb5 might also retrogress (that is have to a cut off date which means they will not be current). If EB1, EB2 and EB5 retrogress and there is no spillover from EB2 ROW and there is no spillover from Family based visas there will not be any spillover to Eb2 India at all. There is absoluetely no difference between Eb3 India and Eb2 India except that EB3 India will be stuck in 2001 and Eb2 India might be stuck either in 2002 or early 2003. We are screwed for ages to come. Dont give me red for bringing this harsh reality, I myself am depressed
Nobody should get red for expressing their thought!! So if at all I give you some, it would be only green!

coming to your point: Even in the thread you referenced to, I have posted a comment "Mr. Oppenheim's statements do not add up...his statements logically contradict each other (well you can not expect LOGIC from USCIS). and so the exact scenario will only be clarified with VB, date movements and finally, their year end statistics".
Accordingly, moving the EB2 I and C together, they have proven that "they are getting ready to spill over". Moreover, EB2 China has used up "its own quota" and will need spill over to move. EB2 ROW on the other had has not used up "its own quota" and will not need spill over (as it is current and not together with India and china). So any spill over from EB1 will come to EB2 India and China (effectively only to India). And if EB2 ROW does not use up their remaining numbers (which they have not so far) during the rest of fiscal year they will also spill to EB2 India.

Now as far as future of EB2 vs EB3 is concerned, I personally believe (and this is just my personal belief....) that unless EB1 (specially EB1C) gets oversubscribed (as mentioned in other threads), EB2 should move quickly during next fiscal year. EB1 usage can only be known from year end data as and when they publish it.
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Last edited by kondur_007; 06-08-2009 at 08:07 PM.
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  #19 (permalink)  
Old 06-08-2009, 08:09 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kondur_007 View Post
Nobody should get red for expressing their thought!! So if at all I give you some, it would be only green!

coming to your point: Even in the thread you referenced to, I have posted a comment "Mr. Oppenheim's statements do not add up...his statements logically contradict each other (well you can not expect LOGIC from USCIS). and so the exact scenario will only be clarified with VB, date movements and finally, their year end statistics".
Accordingly, moving the EB2 I and C together, they have proven that "they are getting ready to spill over". Moreover, EB2 China has used up "its own quota" and will need spill over to move. EB2 ROW on the other had has not used up "its own quota" and will not need spill over (as it is current and not together with India and china). So any spill over from EB1 will come to EB2 India and China (effectively only to India). And if EB2 ROW does not use up their remaining numbers (which they have not so far) during the rest of fiscal year they will also spill to EB2 India.

Agree with your logic. However, if there is anything about the USCIS/State Dep't we have learnt over the last 2 yrs, they and their rules/logic is inconsistent at best and idiotic at worst. When someone picks and chooses which guidelines they follow at different times, and interpret the rules in such a haphazard manner, predicting anything in this regard is about as accurate as predicting the weather on the day I get my green card.
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  #20 (permalink)  
Old 06-08-2009, 08:10 PM
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Default 10 yrs are you kidding me?

10 yrs???? what are you talking about, the pace at which we are going right now.. minimum 200 yrs+- 6 months


Quote:
Originally Posted by PavanV View Post
My labour cleared in 2009, i guess i need to wait for 10 yrs more !!!, not good , not good at all
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1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
  #21 (permalink)  
Old 06-08-2009, 09:31 PM
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Default Curry Bashing in a different way

Thanks Deepak for clearing the uncertainty. At least now I know my wait is 10 more years.
Wonder how many more years I will be able to keep my EB3 Job and job description.
This sort of slow torture is nothing less than "Curry Bashing" openly happening in Australia.
(Source : http://bkhush.com/dev/content/lets-go-curry-bashing )

Quote:
Originally Posted by deepakjain View Post
The rate at which USCIS is denying H1B, L1 Extensions it EB 3- PD 2001 - Wait till 2015
EB 3- PD 2002 - Wait till 2019
EB 3- PD 2003 - Wait till 2024
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 06-08-2009, 10:10 PM
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Default I do not agree with you

Quote:
Originally Posted by psaxena View Post
10 yrs???? what are you talking about, the pace at which we are going right now.. minimum 200 yrs+- 6 months
saxena sabhib,
maafi chata huin but I do not agree with your analysis....
(I am sorry but I do not agree with your analysis)....

I am thinking more like.....he pace at which we are going right now.. minimum 200 yrs+- 5 months
(so my prediction is one month less than yours)....I am sure I am right and you are rong...

anways, USCIS does not seem to help us anymore....

I will go home and try to convince my daughter to sponsor me.....she is 4 currently so I might be able to convince her and get a legal document signed....

have a good evening folks !
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 06-08-2009, 11:19 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by deepakjain View Post
You might get your GC while you are at the retirement home....
that seems to be the idea. I meet lot of senior retired people from India ..they say they got their GC's at the age of 60 (through family) ..they get so bored and disappointed that they just go back and give up their GC's ..so yes I agree, think that you are on temporary visa, earn as much as you can and have 1 suitcase packed and ready to leave.
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 06-09-2009, 12:32 AM
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Default Mr Oppenheim!

I was thinking about the inconsistencies pointed out in Mr Oppenheim's interview by some people. My personal opinion is that he may be like some managers in the industry. Managers may not understand the deep down nitty-gritties of their projects. But usually they do understand the broad/big picture of the things their teams are working on.

Mr Oppenheim may have some facts wrong but I am sure he doesn't have the big picture wrong. My 2c. Finally it's just an opinion.
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  #25 (permalink)  
Old 06-09-2009, 03:35 AM
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blewstream is infamous around these parts blewstream is infamous around these parts blewstream is infamous around these parts blewstream is infamous around these parts
Default any hopes on EB3 moving into 2003 :(

Any hopes of EB3 seeing 2003 in FY2010??
Its a very painful journey
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 06-09-2009, 03:58 AM
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Default Spill Over Hasnt Occured Yet..?

"It has been necessary to retrogress the Mexico Family First and Third preference cut-off dates, as well as the China Employment Second preference cut-off date for July to keep visa issuances within those annual category numerical limits. "

http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bu...etin_4512.html



This seems to be that the Spill Over Hasnt Occured Yet for this year.
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 06-09-2009, 08:13 AM
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Default 2 valid points

(1) Thanks to Mr. Oppenheim for keeping people's hope down. This was the first bulletin which was least discuss by members in past 2 years. Good sign that now members / people know there will not be any hope in near future. Lets work on VISA RECAPTURE.

(2) As every one is saying there is no spill. I do agree. In past years DOS has to move date forward because USCIS can work on those cases in last 2-3 months. ( Supply was more than demand ) . Now USCIS has almost 100k + pre adjucted cases so even DOS moves forward dates on last day of fiscal year USCIS can send approval notices.

To me DOS waiting to do spill untill sep bulletin so EB2 ROW and Eb1 take advntage of C date till last month. And no unjustice to them. In sep when DOS see 30k extra visas ( This is for example purpose only ). They will spill over and USCIS will start sending approval to old case first. ( 2004 mid or later , donot have hope )
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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 06-09-2009, 09:49 AM
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Default

With several pre-adjudicated cases, the only consolation is that when they have visas to issue, they may base it on priority date and not jump all over going back and forth on the dates.
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 06-09-2009, 10:00 AM
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Default

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Originally Posted by vin13 View Post
With several pre-adjudicated cases, the only consolation is that when they have visas to issue, they may base it on priority date and not jump all over going back and forth on the dates.
I do not think so. That will be too much logical for USCIS
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 06-09-2009, 10:03 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by nullpointergc View Post
You broke my heart. My kid is 5 yrs old so more wait for me.
mine , not only heart ..everything broke ..
my kids are not citigens..
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