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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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Old 04-14-2016, 11:48 AM
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Default VB Dates Calculations

Does anyone know how DHS/USCIS calculates the VB dates?
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Old 04-14-2016, 01:26 PM
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Only God knows, they do not feel it is anyone's business to know the calculation even for the folks who are impacted.
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Old 04-15-2016, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by GCBuyer View Post
Only God knows, they do not feel it is anyone's business to know the calculation even for the folks who are impacted.
If that's the case then can't be file a case or request USCIS with the help of IV to reveal how they calculate VB dates?

Admin, is this possible?
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Old 04-15-2016, 02:14 PM
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Priority dates and backlog interpretation is a fool's errand. USCIS generates demand numbers and DoS has no access to demand data and thus just makes up the dates based on best guess. Its best not to get too involved with all that. We should just see it as one more sign of how hopelessly broken this whole immigration system is.
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Old 04-15-2016, 02:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aemon.Targ View Post
Does anyone know how DHS/USCIS calculates the VB dates?
As far as I know,

140,000 visas are allotted annually for Principles and their dependents(spouse/kids)

Eb1 = 140,000 * 28.6% = 37,520*
Eb2 = 140,000 * 28.6% = 37,520**
Eb3 = 140,000 * 28.6% = 37,520***
Eb4 = 140,000 * 7.1% = 9,940
Eb5 = 140,000 * 7.1% = 9,940

*Plus any unused visas from the 4th and 5th preferences

**Plus any unused visas from the 1st preference

***Plus any unused visas the 1st and 2nd preference

So, countries like India, China, Philippines and Mexico Ė have higher levels of immigration and so have an annual 7% limit imposed on them: 37,520 * 7% = 2626 employment based visas.

the Visa Office (VO) is tasked with determining the cut off. The VO subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations into monthly allotments. So, numbers for India would be divided thus: 2626/12 = 219 for each month.

Lets assume there are 1000 applicants from India who fall in a month so including their dependents the count would go upto 3k a month and 219 available visas are not at all sufficient. Demand is more than supply, so the VB dates cannot move rapidly. If the demand is more the dates retrogress.

The AD concept is introduced just to eliminate redundancy and have insight in the below blind spots:-

1) An employee whose I140 is approved in EB3 may port to EB2 (or eb2 to eb1,eb3 to eb1 else any other category) either through same employer or a different one. But the employer fails to withdraw the EB3 petition. Then the DOS has no clue of the same and the duplicate count remains in the DOS system..

2) Employee changes jobs and the new employer files a new GC petition, but the old employer does not withdraw the I-140 . Again DOS has no clue about the same hence duplicate count is added to the system..

3) The Employee is died. But the employer failed to withdraw petition . DOS has no clue of the same. The count of approved petition still remains.

4) Employee returns back to his home country, and the employer did not withdraw the Petition nor the employee is interested in coming to USA. DOS has no clue of the same and the approved petition count remains in the system.

5) Employee has got married and has an I140 approved but DOS has no clue how many family member will be added for green card at the time of processing I1485.

6) Employer has gone out of Business and fails to withdraw the petitions. DOS has no clue of the same.

7) Employee has a family member who sponsored them for a green card under Family category and they donít need their employment-based petition anymore. DOS has no clue of the same.

8) Employee came to US on work visa and married a US citizen and hence they donít need to continue the employer provided GC petition. DOS has no clue of the same.

9) Employees fails to know that their dates are Current and file their petition at a later date. DOS predicts all applications to come in when its Current but practically lots of applications are received at a very later date causing DOS unable to predict demand.

10) DOS cannot predict the number of applications that might be revoked or denied due to fraud, criminal, and medical issues.

So, 2626 visas annually for each EB1, EB2 and EB3 categories for India. The only other way to get additional visas into EBI is Spillover from FB categories or other EBROW categories. Hence EB1I and EB2I will always get benefit of Spillovers(if any), EB3I can expect to move at snails pace as they not get the benefit of SO.
Avg. SO in prior years was around 17-19k but seems like due to demand in EB1, EB2I is not getting the expected SO and the VB dates are not moving as expected. Nowadays, elsalvador, honduras etc also getting cutoff date, speaks volume for the demand for Visa from ROW.

Currently and in the coming years, lot of porting is done/expected which slows down EB2I pace which is already is slow but EB3I is moving like planet Pluto. What I get from these calculations is that EBI backlogged people are doomed unless country limit is eliminated or total visas are increased are implemented.

Hope the above provides you some idea regarding VB calculations.
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