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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #1501 (permalink)  
Old 06-10-2008, 05:57 PM
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do we know if the $340 will pay for both the years or will it be a $680 price tag upfront for 2 years?
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  #1502 (permalink)  
Old 06-12-2008, 05:11 PM
jsb jsb is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yabadaba View Post
do we know if the $340 will pay for both the years or will it be a $680 price tag upfront for 2 years?
There is nothing to suggest that one has to apply for 2 years and pay double the fee upfront. You just apply for extension without specifying period of extension.
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  #1503 (permalink)  
Old 06-12-2008, 06:07 PM
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May be we should celebrate if we get 1 year extension instead of 2

Funny now the IO's will estimate/predict wait time based on their expectation of "wait time" - what a joke.

I would really be interested in knowing their formula for calculation then we can put this prediction thread to REST once and for all
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  #1504 (permalink)  
Old 06-15-2008, 07:07 PM
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Default Trend in EB2 Cut-off and prediction

I have been looking at data for a while and it has been reliable in identifying the trend in number of applications and approval rates. Based on that, I predict that EB2 India will move by quite a bit in October. Here is why:

http://www..com/usa-immigrat...s/i485-report/

Look at June/July/Aug 2007 filings for India in the monthly report and filter by EB3 or EB2. The numbers are almost the same for both (EB3 is slightly more). So, there is almost equal demand for both EB3 and EB2 from India applicants.

Now, look at EB2 India only for June 2007 when the cut-off date for EB2 India first moved to Apr 2004. (If you want to see the cut-off date trend graphically, go to http://negamam.blogspot.com/ ). The rate of I-485 approvals for June 2007 is now at 73%. i.e. If you assume almost all of the people with priority date before Apr 2004 filed their application in June 2007, then only 27% of these applications are yet to be approved. This approval rate has been increasing from less than 20% to close to 75% within the past 4 months, which indicates that, if the approval trend continues this month and next an additional 15-20% may get approved by the end of July. So, the total of EB2 approvals with PD before Apr 2004 will be 90-95% by end of July.

Hence, it will be time to consider applications with later priority-dates and the cut-off date will move forward in August or October. How much it will move is, of course, any body's guess!
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  #1505 (permalink)  
Old 06-16-2008, 01:11 PM
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Default Hi vdlrao

Hi vdlrao,
I like your posts and your theory, could you please post your assumptions related to EB - I ?

Should i start the process of applying my labor in EB2 ?

Cheers,
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  #1506 (permalink)  
Old 06-16-2008, 02:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gcobsessed View Post
I have been looking at data for a while and it has been reliable in identifying the trend in number of applications and approval rates. Based on that, I predict that EB2 India will move by quite a bit in October. Here is why:

http://www..com/usa-immigrat...s/i485-report/

Look at June/July/Aug 2007 filings for India in the monthly report and filter by EB3 or EB2. The numbers are almost the same for both (EB3 is slightly more). So, there is almost equal demand for both EB3 and EB2 from India applicants.

Now, look at EB2 India only for June 2007 when the cut-off date for EB2 India first moved to Apr 2004. (If you want to see the cut-off date trend graphically, go to http://negamam.blogspot.com/ ). The rate of I-485 approvals for June 2007 is now at 73%. i.e. If you assume almost all of the people with priority date before Apr 2004 filed their application in June 2007, then only 27% of these applications are yet to be approved. This approval rate has been increasing from less than 20% to close to 75% within the past 4 months, which indicates that, if the approval trend continues this month and next an additional 15-20% may get approved by the end of July. So, the total of EB2 approvals with PD before Apr 2004 will be 90-95% by end of July.

Hence, it will be time to consider applications with later priority-dates and the cut-off date will move forward in August or October. How much it will move is, of course, any body's guess!
Excellent analysis. I agree that based on your analysis the dates should move forward and how much they would move would depend on numbers of cases with PD post April 2004. We don't know the numbers but I think there are large number of cases with PD from May 2004 till March 2005. Also some Eb3 conversion cases would add pressure on forward date movement.
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  #1507 (permalink)  
Old 06-16-2008, 10:17 PM
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Default EB2 trend prediction

Extending the same argument as above, and also based on data, the proportion of EB2 India applications in 2004 is only 60% of those in 2003. Even better, the applications filed between Apr 2004 and Dec 2004 is less than 40% of the applications filed between Jan 2003 and Apr 2004 (this is the range that is within the current cut-off dates). The proportion increases in 2005 when PERM began.

Now, if the USCIS has approved almost 75% of the applications before Apr 2004 within 6 months this year, then the remaining applications in 2004 should be cleared in less than half that time. So, definitely the priority date for EB2 will move to sometime in 2005 by end of this year. Whatcha say?
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  #1508 (permalink)  
Old 06-16-2008, 11:04 PM
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Including EB2+EB3 (approved cases for India as per the Perm MSAccess database is)

2005 8640
2006 15421
2007 24573

The biggest question is how much spill over is available to india/china. If it is in couple of thousands(i guess it would be) then the PD would reach mid 2005 by 2009 end for EB2.
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  #1509 (permalink)  
Old 06-16-2008, 11:51 PM
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Default if laughing helps...

then I will laugh the entire day. But it is not. I come to this site to see if I can help the immigration process in any way. Whosoever is getting benefited, does not matter. But to be frank I am tired of jokes about EB3-I that they should do blah blah since chances of getting GC are zero. I want to know what the next IV campaign so that I can take part in it. I know EB3-I is in deep trouble and hearing 100,000 jokes about it is not going to make it easier or harder to bear.

Porting to EB2 is not an option for everyone. Like I said, with 7 yrs experience at the time of filing GC I should have got in EB2, but could not since 3 years of it were spent at client as consultant. That means to port now, I have to move jobs. I am sure a lot of EB3-I face similar situation where moving and restarting the process may seem a very distant option.

Everyone knows the reality of the situation. That is why we all come to this site to help in any way we can. I do not want to stop people from cracking jokes. Each one has the freedom of writing. The same way I also have the freedom of expressing my disappointment. You are right, I certainly do not need apologies. I hope and pray that all of us get what we want. Hopefully the new bills being introduced and IV's campaigns may get us there.



Quote:
Originally Posted by albertpinto View Post
actually no need for apologies. I am EB3 myself and good to know it helps people laugh ..but this is the fact for EB3 ..might as well face it.
clearly nothing is going to change till oct 2008 ...and if they follow this pattern then every year EB3-I will move by few months ..and become unavailable in june ..the sooner people accept this fact the sooner you can plan your life accordingly (as I have ..)
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  #1510 (permalink)  
Old 06-16-2008, 11:57 PM
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Would it be possible for you to break it down with respect to cases approved with PD in 2005, 2006, 2007?

There are several cases with PD in 2005, but they were approved in 2006, and cases with PD in 2006 that were approved later.

As I recall, the number of PERM cases with PD in 2005 was around 20K. Please correct me if I am wrong.
If half of these are in EB2, then 10K * 2.5 (including families) is still 25K. EB2-I India is not supposed to get more than 3K in any financial year in the absence of any spill over.

However it looks like EB2-I is getting visas from EB2ROW spill over, but it remains to be seen if it is in a few thousands, or tens of thousands (which I doubt)

I don't think we can expect any "real" movement in EB2 till Spring of 09. By "real", I don't mean wild swings in the PD, but advancement that will actually cause your case to be adjudicated and result in a Green Card.

Thanks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerrome View Post
Including EB2+EB3 (approved cases for India as per the Perm MSAccess database is)

2005 8640
2006 15421
2007 24573

The biggest question is how much spill over is available to india/china. If it is in couple of thousands(i guess it would be) then the PD would reach mid 2005 by 2009 end for EB2.
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Last edited by amsgc; 06-17-2008 at 12:03 AM.
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  #1511 (permalink)  
Old 06-16-2008, 11:58 PM
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This data is based on the Priority Date. In 2005,2006 databases, there is a field for Received Date.

So 2005 = 2005 + Approved in 2006 but applied in 2005.
2006 = Approved in 2006.
2007 = applied in 2006 and approved in 2007+ 2007)

I could not get exact 2006 since i don't know how many 2006 were approved in 2007. They purposefully removed Received Date column in 2007 database.

Last edited by Jerrome; 06-17-2008 at 12:07 AM.
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  #1512 (permalink)  
Old 06-17-2008, 12:05 AM
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Priority Date
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerrome View Post
This data is based on the Priority Date. In 2005,2006 databases, there is a field for Received Date. But in 2007 database they purposefully removed this column.
Are you saying only 8K cases whave a PD in 2005? That doesn't seem right. How many cases approved in 2006 that were received in 2005?
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Last edited by amsgc; 06-17-2008 at 12:08 AM.
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  #1513 (permalink)  
Old 06-17-2008, 12:10 AM
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Priority Date
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerrome View Post
This data is based on the Priority Date. In 2005,2006 databases, there is a field for Received Date.

So 2005 = 2005 + Approved in 2006 but applied in 2005.
2006 = Approved in 2006.
2007 = applied in 2006 and approved in 2007+ 2007)

I could not get exact 2006 since i don't know how many 2006 were approved in 2007. They purposefully removed Received Date column in 2007 database.
Ok, thanks for the update.
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  #1514 (permalink)  
Old 06-17-2008, 12:13 AM
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Priority Date
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http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx, download the 2006 database and query for yourself.. from my query it is 7290. I used the following query.

2005 -- 1350+7290(approved in 2006 applied in 2005)

SELECT [PERM Disclosure Data].Final_Case_Status, [PERM Disclosure Data].Alien_Citizenship_Country, *
FROM [PERM Disclosure Data]
WHERE ((([PERM Disclosure Data].Final_Case_Status)="Certified") AND (([PERM Disclosure Data].Alien_Citizenship_Country)="INDIA"))
and [PERM Disclosure Data].Received_Date < #01/01/2006#;

But if you ask how correct this database itself i don't know.

Last edited by Jerrome; 06-17-2008 at 12:20 AM.
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  #1515 (permalink)  
Old 06-17-2008, 01:12 AM
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I think we might see some real movement in EB2-I by the end of the year atleast into mid to late 2005. the reason for this is with the few visa numbers available this year, EB2-I will move into late 2004 by September and the new quota in October should result in considerable spillover into EB2 India and EB2 China as EB1 and EB2 ROW are current. Moreover there were not many labors approved in EB2 in 2005 during the initial few months after implementation of PERM and this should result in dates moving rather quickly and I am optimistic that this might result in rapid advancement of EB2-I cut off well into 2007 by the end of 2009. I know this is too optimistic but that is how I see it as EB1 and EB2 ROW remain current and there is bound to be a lot of spillover of excess visas into the retrogressed categories.
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